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Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports is reporting the Blue Jays have completed a mega-deal with the Miami Marlins.  Right-hander Josh Johnson, lefty Mark Buehrle and shortstop Jose Reyes are heading to Toronto.  Going the other way are righty Henderson Alvarez, shortstops Yunel Escobar and Adeiny Hechavarria and minor league lefty Justin Nicolino, one of the "Big Three" pitching prospects in the minor league system.



Update:  There is more to the deal.  Former Jays catcher John Buck and infielder Emilio Bonifacio are coming to Toronto.  Jays pitching prospect Marcus Stroman says minor league outfielder Jake Marisnick is also heading to the Fish. 



Update 2: Catcher Jeff Mathis and minor league pitcher Anthony DeSclafani are also Marlins.






Will this be enough to make the Blue Jays contenders in the American League East?  Could Ozzie Guillen be far behind as the team still needs a a manager? Does everyone love Alex Anthopoulos again?  How many times will it take everyone to spell Buehrle correctly? Why can't the season start tomorrow?  Do you think Albert Pujols is glad he signed with the Angels instead of the Marlins now?  How upset would you be if you are a Marlins fan?

Your thoughts, Bauxite Nation.
Jays Reel In Big Fish | 265 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
China fan - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:05 PM EST (#265438) #
Wow. Rotation: rebuilt. Money spent. And if the Jays are upgrading from Escobar to Reyes at shortstop, the lineup will be stronger too. Anything left for the doom-and-gloomers to complain about?
Mike Forbes - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:07 PM EST (#265439) #
This is all well and good, but, where are the RP's in this trade?!
CeeBee - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:11 PM EST (#265440) #
Geez... settle down for a long winter's nap and get a monster trade. woot!!!! 2 starters we have been longing for a a SS upgrade I think. hmmmmm might take some time to digest this!
ayjackson - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:12 PM EST (#265441) #
ffs, the "doom and gloomers"

So no one is allowed to ask if we got any value back?
braden - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:12 PM EST (#265442) #
11/13/12: The John Buck Trade
joeblow - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:15 PM EST (#265443) #
I formally issue an apology for anything I thought, said, muttered or swore that could be interpreted as AA bashing this offseason. He officially has the cojones, no matter how it turns out.

I might even toss a bone to Rogers. (Maybe 2 if they sign JJ to a deal beyond 2013 - but let's not get ahead of ourselves.)
Jdog - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:17 PM EST (#265444) #
Is Bonifacio part of this trade? He started 14 games at 2B last year. If he is in the trade and we can start him at 2B we have upgraded at another weak position. Will await the details.
ayjackson - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:19 PM EST (#265445) #
This harkens back to when Stand Pat ceased standing pat.
Hodgie - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:19 PM EST (#265446) #
So, how close did we just come to doubling our payroll?
Nigel - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:20 PM EST (#265447) #
A couple of things immediately come to mind - 1) I think this reflects AA's (and ownership's probably) view that the free agent market this year is going to be really expensive; 2) this is a massive gamble on Reyes and Buehrle vis a vis the budget for the next few years - however this turns out you have to admire the guts to go all in like this
ayjackson - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:21 PM EST (#265448) #
Speculation based on a Mrs. Cecil tweet that young Brett has been traded.
greenfrog - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:22 PM EST (#265449) #
No wonder the Jays haven't hired a manager...AA has been busy. I think this is a phenomenal deal for Toronto. AA has filled the team's key needs with some excellent players (with large but manageable contracts), and the organization kept nearly all of its best prospects. Miami did receive some talent, but I'm really happy that d'Arnaud, Sanchez and Syndergaard are all still here. Great, great job by AA - assuming the deal is approved by MLB.
greenfrog - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:26 PM EST (#265450) #
Wouldn't be surprised if there is a flip or two pending.
finch - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:27 PM EST (#265451) #
I wonder if Stanton was discussed? Maybe that ended when they asked for Lawrie...
braden - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:30 PM EST (#265452) #
Morosi's saying it's Marisnick OR Gose and one of Arencibia/Mathis/Wilson (in addition to Escobar/Hech/Nicolino)
Doom Service - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:30 PM EST (#265453) #

Also think there's more moves coming. For one thing, there's now about six major league calibre catchers hanging around. .

Reyes is due 10, 16, 22, 22, 22 million over the next five years. (there's an option for a sixth at 22, with a 4 million buyout). Buehrle signed for 4 - 58 so there's three years at about 14.5 each remaining (can't find annual breakdowns...) Johnson's owed 13.75 for 2013 and then a free agent.

So that's approx 38 million added for next year, less 5 for Escobar, but Reyes' contract really ramps up into the Vernon Wells territory.

I'm sure others will follow with more detailed breakdowns.

BlueJayWay - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:31 PM EST (#265454) #
Well well well well well.
Mike Forbes - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:32 PM EST (#265455) #
I'd trade Lawrie for Stanton. I don't care what country Lawrie is from. That would be the ultimate challenge trade, though.
PeteMoss - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:33 PM EST (#265456) #
I don't see how MLB can't refuse the trade. The Red Sox just did something similar with the Dodgers trade. And if you reject this one, the Marlins will just turn around and move everyone in smaller deals one or two at a time.
sam - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:33 PM EST (#265457) #
My word. Cudos to Rogers for ponying up. The prospects going back: Hech, Marisnick, and Nicolino will be missed and best of luck to them. Holding onto Gose and d'Arnaud must be considered a coup here and Bonifacio presumably plays LF next year.

Again, my word.

Our 25 man is pretty scary:

1. Reyes SS
2. Rasmus CF
3. Bautista RF
4. Encarnacion 1b/DH
5. Lind 1B?
6. Lawrie 3B
7. d'Arnaud C
8. Izturis 2B
9. Bonifacio LF

SP Morrow
SP Johnson
SP Buerhle
SP Romero
SP Happ
ayjackson - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:34 PM EST (#265458) #
Beurhle's deal is heavily backloaded.
CeeBee - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:35 PM EST (#265459) #
Romero just went from #1 starter to most likely #4...... now if he can even half bounce back.....wow, could be a good staff.
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:39 PM EST (#265460) #
Wow. Faith in what beeston and aa were saying is repaid. I would be happy with the team RIGHT NOW if we headed into the season. Our chances of adding a value bat probably just increased too.

Regardless of how this works out this is better than any dream offseason I had just a day ago. When does spring training start.
China fan - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:41 PM EST (#265461) #
Keith Law and Ken Rosenthal are both saying that there's zero chance of this trade being vetoed by MLB. Approval could come as early as tonight.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:43 PM EST (#265462) #
One important takeaway from this deal: There are owners who are far, far worse than Rogers.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:43 PM EST (#265463) #
Yeah this trade better not be vetoed.  If it is I quit being a baseball fan that very minute, forever.
Gerry - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:44 PM EST (#265464) #
2012 Fangraphs WAR:

Jose Reyes 4.5
Josh Johnson 3.8
Mark Buehrle 2.1
John Buck 1.2
Emilio Bonifacio 0.6

Jays pay a bucketload of dollars and three or four prospects for approx. 10 wins.
adrianveidt - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:45 PM EST (#265465) #
Great trade, but I wonder if they might still go after Marcum given that injuries and bad play always seem to happen to every rotation. I'd like to see that.
China fan - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:47 PM EST (#265466) #
And in more good news: reportedly it's Mathis, not JPA, who is included in the trade.

Buck, I presume, will be flipped.
electric carrot - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:49 PM EST (#265467) #
This looks pretty great.  AA = Jedi  (again)


Spifficus - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:50 PM EST (#265468) #
Alternatively, JPA could be moved to fill another spot (1B or LF), with Buck bridging the gap until d'Arnaud is ready.
Mike Forbes - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:51 PM EST (#265469) #
I could see Arencibia being flipped for either a pitcher or leftfielder. I'd be okay with Buck and Wilson until TDA is ready.
Gerry - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:52 PM EST (#265470) #
DeSclafani to Miami as well according to Elliott
China fan - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:55 PM EST (#265471) #
Bonifacio is an intriguing guy, but his 2012 numbers make him look like a duplicate of Rajai Davis: low average, no power, but lots of speed, with 30 stolen bases in just 274 PAs. Not sure how you make room for both Davis and Bonifacio in the same roster, since they fulfill the same role. And you can't really platoon them, since they both have similar splits for their career: they hit LHPs better than RHPs.

Bonifacio's only advantage is that he can play 2B. But he's not good enough to be a full-time 2B, and he can't take the infield utility role because he doesn't play SS.

So I wonder if he'll be flipped too. Or will they trade Davis and keep Bonifacio?
Doom Service - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 07:56 PM EST (#265472) #

Buck is owed $6 million for 2013 as well, Buehrle's owed $12 million for 2013, $18 million for 2014 and $19 million for 2015. Bonifacio made $2.2 million in arbitration in 2012. It's about $40 million in additional salary for 2013 (net of Escobar).

 

China fan - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:00 PM EST (#265473) #
On further reflection: Buck's salary will make him pretty hard to flip. So he's the backup to JPA for now. And if the Jays decide that d'Arnaud is very close to being ready for the majors, they could still trade JPA (for a LF maybe?) and go with Buck as the starting catcher for a couple of months, with Wilson as the backup, until d'Arnaud is ready.
eldarion - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:05 PM EST (#265474) #
I'll withhold commenting until we know everyone in the trade...but wow. Is this AA's McGriff/Fernandez trade? He's swinging for the fences, no question...
China fan - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:05 PM EST (#265475) #
The Marlins are chipping in $4-million to the Jays as part of the deal. Still means a Jays payroll of $115-million to $120-million in 2013.
melondough - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:05 PM EST (#265476) #
Manny Acta was Reyes manager when he played for the Mets.  Hmmmm
Jdog - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:05 PM EST (#265477) #
Bonifacio started 61 games at SS in 2011, so what makes you so sure he can't play SS, after all he is only 28 years old. I see no reason he can't be the starting 2B, I'd like to hear more about his defense in the infield but he had played more infield than OF until this last year. If he starts at 2B and we upgrade in LF our lineup could be exciting with a lot of added speed and production.
Mike Forbes - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:11 PM EST (#265478) #
A starting lineup with Gose, Davis, Reyes, Bonaficio and Lawrie would be the fastest in baseball. Of course, they wouldn't be getting on base much.
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:13 PM EST (#265479) #
I guess it would be greedy to hope we can sign jason bay and francisco liriano on fliers now?
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:15 PM EST (#265480) #
I love that 8 hours ago those "fliers" were bantered as potentially our main offseason moves.
greenfrog - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:18 PM EST (#265481) #
Miami is getting some interesting young players in this deal. If a couple of them blossom, it could work out for the Marlins. But I'm still impressed that the Jays kept most of their best young talent.

AA still has lots of parts to make another deal or two, if he's so inclined. Heck, he could even pull off a second blockbuster for a young ace or stud positional player. Joe Sheehan has speculated that AA could flip JJ for full value.
greenfrog - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:21 PM EST (#265482) #
Jose Bautista ‏@JoeyBats19
Its a good day to be a bluejay!
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:22 PM EST (#265483) #
Incidentally i will never make fun of a bad trade proposal on here again. "you are an idiot if you think you can get josh johnson without giving up d'arnaud, gose, sanchez or syn"... I might have actually said that at some point.
Mike Forbes - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:25 PM EST (#265484) #
Members of the Marlins are pissed off. Both Stanton and Morrison are expressing their frustrations on Twitter. I'd take both.
92-93 - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:25 PM EST (#265485) #
It's so convenient to ignore the Jays could've just signed FAs for money last offseason and held on to their prospects.
China fan - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:25 PM EST (#265486) #
"....Bonifacio started 61 games at SS in 2011...."

Good point. He also posted a .753 OPS in 2011. If he can hit anything close to that in 2013, he could definitely take the 2B job.

Another point is that Izturis can play SS. So the Jays wouldn't need to add a utility infielder -- they could have Bonifacio and Izturis sharing the 2B and utility jobs. If Reyes needs a day off, they put Izturis at SS and Bonifacio at 2B.

And one final point: Izturis hits better against RHP than LHP. So there could be a platoon of Izturis and Bonifacio at 2B.

So, you're right: Bonifacio in the infield, Davis in the outfield or bench, and there's a ton of speed available for any situation.
92-93 - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:26 PM EST (#265487) #
This trade is going to get even better if AA can turn Arencibia into a valuable piece.
melondough - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:28 PM EST (#265488) #
"It's so convenient to ignore the Jays could've just signed FAs for money last offseason and held on to their prospects."

Yeah right like they would have signed here.  Now some of the higher end FA may.
Mike D - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:28 PM EST (#265489) #
92-93, it's possible (though I admit not certain) that it would have cost more for the Jays to have signed Reyes and Buerhle.
92-93 - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:28 PM EST (#265490) #
Good point on the speed. Having Davis, Bonifacio, and Izturis around is going to very valuable late in games.
Mike D - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:30 PM EST (#265491) #
It's almost silly to break down such a salary-driven trade on the merits, but each of these are nifty moves by AA:

Reyes for Escobar and Hechavarria

Johnson for Nicolino and Marisnick

Buehrle, Buck and Bonifacio for Alvarez, Mathis and DeSclafani
92-93 - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:32 PM EST (#265492) #
Of course they don't take equal offers from Toronto, but that doesn't mean it was worth getting rid of Escobar, Hechavarria, Nicolino, Marisnick, and Alvarez for Johnson and the ability to have cheaper but heavily backloaded contracts for Reyes & Buehrle.

Instead of trying to start a Box war over last off season why not just talk about how good this is for the club going forward?
Kelekin - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:32 PM EST (#265493) #
This is one of the most exciting trades I've ever seen. We got three high-reward players, for unproven talent and shortstops whose only talent was in their defense. Alvarez may never develop that pitch he needs to become a high-end pitcher, and Nicolino may never be more than a #3.

Bonifacio is a solid back-up, but please, only consider him as such. Usually hypotheticals like "if he hits like in year X" when he has hit a different way almost every year of his career is not really important. Take him as he his - a solid backup.

So excited right now. If Reyes and Johnson are healthy, this is fantastic.
ayjackson - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:34 PM EST (#265494) #
"It's almost silly to break down such a salary-driven trade on the merits, but each of these are nifty moves by AA:" They also look quite nifty for a club trying to trim salary.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:34 PM EST (#265495) #
This trade is going to get even better if AA can turn Arencibia into a valuable piece.

Yep.  Early reports had Arencibia involved, but it just turned out to be Jeff Mathis.  We still have JPA to deal, with TDA waiting in the wings.
Jimbag - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:35 PM EST (#265496) #
Pinch me.
92-93 - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:38 PM EST (#265497) #
Agreed, ayjackson. It's terrible for their fans but it's a pretty brilliant business strategy the Marlins employed out there. They got the buzz going for a new stadium (and MLB off their backs) by signing top FAs to heavily back loaded contracts and then traded those guys for good prospects. Maybe we can pry Cespedes from Oakland.
Magpie - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:39 PM EST (#265498) #
It's possible (though I admit not certain) that it would have cost more for the Jays to have signed Reyes and Buerhle.

I would assume quite a bit more. All things being equal... do you choose Canada or Florida? Remember that there's no state income tax in Florida. For most professional athletes, that's pretty much a no-brainer. And it's always startling to discover how many baseball players already live in Florida.

So things aren't be equal. Which would have meant more money. Lots more money.

I really like Reyes, Johnson, and Buehrle. So I'm pretty pleased. I suppose one could be concerned about Johnson's elbow, and Buehrle's age, and Reyes' hamstrings. There's always something..
ayjackson - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:40 PM EST (#265499) #
I like the deal. And I like what it says about ownership/management more. We did give up controllable value for expensive production, though, so there's risk there.
Dave Till - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:40 PM EST (#265500) #
I want to wait until the deal is official. And I also want to find out whether AA is going to flip any of these players in other deals. But: wow.

Somebody mentioned that John Farrell is probably not a happy camper right now. Heh.

And I am seriously glad that I am not a Miami Marlins fan. Or a Miami taxpayer. (It could be argued that Jeffrey Loria is giving to Toronto what he took away from Montreal.)

Magpie - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:46 PM EST (#265501) #
Miami is getting some interesting young players in this deal. If a couple of them blossom, it could work out for the Marlins.

And I'm sure one of Loria's henchmen is pointing out - quite rightly - that they lost 93 games with those guys.
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:46 PM EST (#265502) #
Wow, still trying to find the words. Great timing too, with the NHL lockout and all.. I guess the new market inefficiency is cities/states/countries in recession? :-)

mlb.tv just got my renewal for next year.. And HOPEFULLY I'll be springing for the playoff package as well..

Let's just hope each of the big pieces is at least 85-90% healthy and that we didn't get Sirotka'd again
Jdog - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:54 PM EST (#265503) #
Not that it will happen, but if the Marlins were to go out and spend the money they just freed up on 2 quality SP's then this trade would look really good for them.
Kasi - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 08:57 PM EST (#265504) #
That's the thing though. Other than Greinke there isn't a starting pitcher out there as good as Johnson. I'm not even sure that Kuroda and Jackson, the number 2/3 pitching Free Agents according to Law are even better than Buerhle.
Dewey - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 09:06 PM EST (#265505) #
It's a shame Ozzie was fired.  Would have been fascinating to see how Escobar and him worked out.

I like it, though I'll miss Alvarez.

TimberLee - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 09:08 PM EST (#265506) #
Isn't this fun?   Baseball in mid-November in Canada!
sam - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 09:15 PM EST (#265507) #
We haven't really heard from all the players coming to us yet. I do hope guys like Buerhle and Reyes embrace the opportunity and don't dampen any of our enthusiasm by saying something to the effect that they don't want to play in Canada or on turf.

The prospects going to Miami are good prospects, but there are real questions about each. Alvarez has two pitches, Nicolino is a nice looking prospect who doesn't have overpowering stuff and has yet to pass the AA test, Marisnick still has glaring holes in his swing, and Hech while a solid looking defender still has real questions about his bat. Descalafani too lacks any real plus pitch and the Jays have several pitchers of his profile.

I do hope there a still a few more trades in the works. Arencibia has to be an attractive piece to a number of NL clubs. I don't think the LF job is as pressing as a 1B. I don't really see the harm in letting Anthony Gose play there the first half and in the event he falters look for someone at the deadline.
TJ Caino - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 09:16 PM EST (#265508) #
Sucks JJ is a free agent after this season.

I do like extra draft picks. But not quite as much as good pitchers at the top of the rotation.

uglyone - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 09:21 PM EST (#265509) #
That is pretty sweet.

Reyes and Buerhle are overpaid, but I'm never complaining about money ever again, espeically since they're clear upgrades at their positions.

Meanwhile, johnson is a great add no matter what. Hopefully we get him re-signed eventually.

and Bonifacio and Buck should be decent spare parts. nice to have a catcher that can hit a bit on the bench, and Bonifacio looked like a legit quality starter in 2011, though that was probably a fluke.

As for the guys we gave up, the only guy I'm a little stung about is Alvarez. IMO that kid is gonna have a very good career. Jake and Nicolino have a chance to be good, but both have good (but not great) potential, and haven't shown anything above A-ball, so I won't cry about them much.
electric carrot - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 09:25 PM EST (#265510) #
Yes this is fun.  Also, I think the timing is good.  To me the AL East looks a little weaker than normal.  We'll need to check in on this again in a few months but as of right now the Yanks needed superstar years from Jeter, Pettitte, Cano and Karoda to get to where they got.  Not sure if they can count on that again.  Orioles got really lucky in the one run games and a bunch of players with career years.  Tampa can't hit.  And Boston's a pretty big question mark.  I think this is a really good year to go all in. 
Charlie - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 09:31 PM EST (#265511) #
It's tough to really worry about whether we could have perfectly acquired this set of players (and the respective talent level they represent) some other way. Rogers has made a business decision to spend the money that they have been promising and I'm happy they finally did.

Coming into this season I was generally optimistic about the team but felt the talk of playoff potential was premature. Now our roster is now definitely good enough to contend in the AL, indeed I'll be disappointed if we don't at least snag a wildcard (with the potential caveat that Jose's wrist is not a career changing injury). It's been 20 years since we had a playoff quality roster and that's plenty long enough! Sign me up for season's!
hobbes9 - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 09:33 PM EST (#265512) #
I swear I'm not a bandwagon fan, making my first post on the night of a blockbuster deal!

Truth be told I'm a long time reader and have been meaning to let everyone know how much I've enjoyed the site. In my opinion it is the most sophisticated, knowledgable, and informative Blue Jays site I've come across. Not to take anything away from others, but the analysis, discussion, and discourse here is second to none.

Next year just got a heck of a lot more exciting!
TJ Caino - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 09:38 PM EST (#265513) #
" Skeptics will say that Buehrle is heading into the downside of his career and will make the Jays regret that rich contract and that Johnson is a short-term fix."

- from John Lott. Which pretty much sums up my concerns regarding the deal.

More specifically, I worry that Johnson (the player that most fills what the Jays need) will leave after one season, and that Buehrle's 19M per season will be prohibitive.
sam - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 09:41 PM EST (#265514) #
There has got to be a few more moves in the works here. Guys like Cecil, Lind, Davis, Buck are prime "cash considerations" type trades. Arencibia is an obvious question mark and sure to net something in return. There's some redundancy in the utility/fourth outfielder and catcher position. I'd like Jeremy Jeffress to claim one of the bullpen spots, having Darren Oliver as the sole LHP in the bullpen isn't necessarily a bad thing as Delabar does well against LH. I think the move also indicates the Jays are likely to pursue a manager with some experience than someone who perhaps hasn't cut his teeth in at the ML level.

There are a number of guys out of options likely to start the year on the DL--McGowan, Perez, Santos? My hope is that the Jays acquire someone like Ike Davis for Arencibia and perhaps give Gose a real look at the starting LF position, while having Bonafacio and Izturis cycle through the 2B and LF positions.

The team looks very good on paper and there's some real cover in the event of injuries.
JB21 - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 09:42 PM EST (#265515) #
The Buffalo Bisons ownership must not be as excited as we are....

Some huge X factors on this team. Ricky Romero, Brett Lawrie, Colby Rasmus.

Hope we can keep JJ past next season.
Moe - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 09:50 PM EST (#265516) #
I don't see this as a win for the Jays at all. They took on two back-loaded longterm deals that would not be signed like this. So they paid a lot for one year of Josh Johnson.
hobbes9 - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 10:01 PM EST (#265517) #
It's been mentioned before by others but what makes this such a great deal for the Jays is that they managed to get it done and upgrade the rotation, SS, and 2B without having to give up the best of their top minor league talent.

I probably like Alvarez more than I should and am especially sad to see him go but he's been inconsistent during his first two big league seasons. We all know about the glove of Hechavarria but we also all know about his weakness at the plate. Nicolino was the only one of the "big three" leaving and, while he has a pretty high floor, he is still quite a way from reaching it. Desclafani put up good numbers in Lansing but is far from reaching his ceiling. Even though Marisnick struggled in his short time in AA, he's got a lot of potential. That potential also comes with some questions marks.

Even if Buehrle is on the downside of his career he has always been a bit of an outlier. He works fast and has done more with less pure stuff than others. I'm really interested in watching him as a Jay. He spent most of his career with the accusers I've always liked his style. Reyes is an upgrade over Escobar but comes at a much higher cost. Will he play well enough to make up for the difference? Johnson, if healthy, immediately moves to the front of the rotation.

As we saw with the A's and O's, along with the second Wild Card, it makes all the sense in the world to go for it.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 10:04 PM EST (#265518) #
I'm pretty sure Buehrle will be pitching until he's 45. It won't be sexy, and people will be saying he's "almost done" every year, but he'll keep going.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 10:08 PM EST (#265519) #
Yeah I'm not too concerned about Buerhle's age.  2012 was only his age 33 season, he's always been a finesse type, so I could see a lot more really solid years out of him.

Johnson could be a real stud if he's healthy.  Only under control for 2013 though...

Reyes is another guy that will be  stud if healthy, but like JJ has had the injury concerns.

Overall I'm just blown away by the fact Rogers was willing to do this.  I guess AA and Beeston were telling the truth: the money really was there if they requested it.  It was always one of those things where I didn't believe it until it happened. 

It's happened.

Spicol - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 10:09 PM EST (#265520) #
Here's some fun. After the rotation (Johnson, Morrow, Buehrle, Romero, Happ) and 7-man bullpen (Janssen, Lincoln, Delabar, Rogers, Oliver, Loup, Santos) are set, you can probably make another 7-man bullpen that wouldn't be the worst in the league out of Carreno, Cecil, Crawford, Dyson, Germano, Jeffress, Jenkins, McGowan (maybe) and Wade.

There could be additional help from the ranks of the injured in Luis Perez (mid-13), Drabek (mid-13) and Hutchison (late 13) as well. Pretty deep team
Doom Service - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 10:18 PM EST (#265521) #

He's 34 next year. Top comps on baseball-reference include players like Frank Viola, Jimmy Key, Paul Splitorff, Mike Flanagan...

Viola had his last good year at 33. Splitorff at 36, Flanagan at 37 (ok year at 39 as a reliever), Key at 36.37.

Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA (predictably) has him declining in value steadily until he's 37, after which he dips below replacement level.

Jdog - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 10:18 PM EST (#265522) #
Im pretty sure that indeed would be the worst bullpen in the league. But yes they have improved their pitching depth
ayjackson - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 10:25 PM EST (#265523) #
As a sidebar, TJ Caino mentioned a compensatory draft pick for JJ. As I understand it, to be eligible for draft pick compensation, the departing player would have had to been on the roster for one full year, not one season. If I understand this correctly, we are two weeks to late in acquiring him.
Spifficus - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 10:54 PM EST (#265524) #
I haven't looked at it recently, but I suspect it's a year by service time, and not a calendar year.
Intricated - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 11:01 PM EST (#265525) #
As a sidebar, TJ Caino mentioned a compensatory draft pick for JJ. As I understand it, to be eligible for draft pick compensation, the departing player would have had to been on the roster for one full year, not one season. If I understand this correctly, we are two weeks to late in acquiring him.

I was under the impression (like from this article) that a player has to be on the team's roster at the start of the regular season (and stay with the club through to the end, plus the offering of the 1-year qualifying offer that is refused), which makes more sense to me (not that it's suppose to).  Otherwise, a current free agent that signs a 1-year contract with a new team may not technically be part of their new team for a full calender year as the end of the 2013 (post-)season will be mid/late-October and they only signed with their new team as early as Nov 10th 2012, and thus, their new club would never be eligible to obtain a compensation pick.
joeblow - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 11:10 PM EST (#265526) #
What's the over/under for attendance next year? They would probably be extremely happy to get back to 2.4m. Rough guess that every 100,000 fans means an extra $5m to the bottom line?

There's so much to analyze in this deal. Payroll boost while Bautista and EE still in their prime is a big deal. The new pitchers give a more realistic bridge to the younger studs coming up over the next few years. Lots of speed. It goes on.
Charlie - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 11:14 PM EST (#265527) #
Buerhle will be 36 in his final year under contract. He has no injury history to speak of and no mechanical/physical/psychological flaws to cause concern that he'll be an ineffective mid-30's pitcher.

Johnson pitched 191 good not great innings coming off of his shoulder surgery. I'm not worried about him going forward as a risk and I'm interested to see how AA handles contract negotiations with him.

Reyes is the one with the real risk. If he plays to his career averages for the remaining 5 years of his deal, I'll be totally satisfied. However, a 29 year old player with past hamstring issues, whose offensive skill set is built around speed, is undeniably a risk.

So, is this trade a win for the Jays? I think it most likely is but it's not a certainty. I don't care at all that the contracts are backloaded. Ownership was never going to let the Jays bottom out during a true multi year building phase (I would say "rebuilding" but it doesn't feel right when we've been mediocre since 1993). If you're not going that route, then you're committing to overpaying a few guys on the way to the playoffs.

Miami got some legit future potential in return, though they will have poisoned relations with their fanbase only one year into their new ballpark honeymoon. Who's to say what's more important?
John Northey - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 11:22 PM EST (#265528) #
Well, I did say awhile ago that the Marlins would be a good trade partner. Wow.

Shortstop...
New: Reyes: signed for age 30-34 seasons option for age 35. Lifetime 107 OPS+, over 120 just once with his 144 in 2011. Great speed with over 400 SB lifetime and 111 triples. -2.9 UZR/150 last year, 1.5 lifetime.

Old: Escobar: signed for age 30-32 seasons with 31/32 being options. 99 OPS+ lifetime, peak of 118 as a rookie. Lifetime 26 SB, or about 1/2 a year for Reyes. 5.0 UZR/150 last year, 3.4 lifetime. Also Hechavarria, rookie 74 OPS+ with 6 years of control and a rep for great defense but stats weren't good in his ML time last year.

Analysis: major upgrade offensively, bit of a downgrade defensively. Obviously AA likes fast players.

Pitching...
New: Josh Johnson signed for age 29 season 104 ERA+ last year but 133 lifetime his FIP 3.40 last year vs 3.20 lifetime, and Mark Buehrle signed for age 34-36 seasons 106 ERA+ last year 119 lifetime, FIP 4.18 last year 4.14 lifetime. Both solid for #1/2 slots in rotation although Morrow might have something to say about that and hopefully so will Romero. Happ is now #5 as many hoped.

Old: Henderson Álvarez under control for age 23-27 seasons 88 ERA+ last year 94 lifetime 5.18 FIP last year 4.87 lifetime. Justin Nicolino - 20 years old in A ball with nice stats as a 2nd round pick. Anthony DeSclafani 6th round pick age 22 last year in A ball with nice stats but just 6.7 K/9 which is not a good number at that level.

Analysis: major upgrade in talent, but maybe for just 1 year - expect AA to work on signing Johnson long term. You hate to trade young pitching but Alvarez having under 4 K/9 last year made me very nervous while A ball pitchers have a burn out rate that is sky high (now watch Nicolino be a John Smoltz type).

Outfield....
New: Emilio Bonifacio arbitration for age 28/29 seasons, a super utility guy who has 128 games at 3B, 96 at SS, 95 in CF, 75 at 2B, 46 in LF, and 23 in RF. Super speed with 30 SB vs 3 caught last year and 110-28 lifetime in under 2000 PA. Just an 81 OPS+ lifetime, but did have a 107 in 2011 so some potential is there but I suspect he is what he is.

Old: Jake Marisnick, entering age 22 season had a 622 OPS in AA but 800 in A+ last year, a top prospect at both levels according to Baseball America, a guy you hate to lose.

Analysis: A downgrade for the Jays long term, but for 2013 an upgrade as Marisnick wouldn't have been ready until late in the season at best. Bonifacio is useful and probably will be here for a few years as AA loves guys like him - can play anywhere, super speedy and hits enough that if he plays for 2 weeks he won't kill you. He'll be our 5th outfielder/backup infielder #2 should another second baseman be acquired and Izturis becomes the backup. Used in a mix and match with Izturis also wouldn't be a bad idea.

Catcher...
New: John Buck, back for another go-around, 114 OPS+ here, but just 82 in 2 years in Miami. Signed for age 32 season, should be a good backup to JPA or Td'A, not a bad choice as an everyday catcher if needed for the year should JPA be traded and Td'A not be ready in April.

Old: Jeff Mathis - a backup catcher recently signed to a 2 year extension but very replaceable.

Analysis: Upgrade offensively but might be a downgrade defensively. Shouldn't be a big deal either way if JPA or Td'A is the regular catcher.

The $4 million in cash is neither here nor there for us as fans, but I'm sure Rogers appreciates it.

Overall: I'm happy. This shows a clear goal of going for it in 2013/2014. Reyes might be a weight on the payroll in a few years, but I trust AA could clear out anything after the Wells deal.

FYI: I still rank McGriff/Fernandez for Alomar/Carter as #1 all time for trades. 4 all-stars, 3 Hall of Very Good and a HOF'er in their primes being traded at once is just amazing. I still have the Toronto Sun from the day after with the big headline and stories.
John Northey - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 11:28 PM EST (#265529) #
Heh - found a comment I made recently...
http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=264548

"Hmmm... good point with Miami. They probably are clearing out deals so who might they dump?"

List with Johnson, Reyes, Buehrle, Buck plus Bell (traded elsewhere) and Nolasco (poor ERA+).

"Reminds me that AA should be pounding on Miami's door asking about Johnson and Buehrle"

Always nice to at least see something as potential although I didn't expect the Jays would have the guts to go this far.
Thomas - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 11:29 PM EST (#265530) #
Now some of the higher end FA may.

Well, they may have if the Jays had any more money to spend. I'll be surprised if they do (that is to add anyone more than a back-end piece).

As Charlie points out, the Johnson contract negotiations will be very interesting to watch. I'm not optimistic on that front, given AA's comments about the length of contracts and what Johnson will presumably be demanding in the offseason. There's no reason to assume he won't sign in Toronto, but the team would have to make it worth his while and I'm not convinced they will. Suddenly, I'm even more interested to see what the final figures are for Greinke.

Given Johnson's contract, his injury history, Reyes' injury history and development curve, Buehrle's seeming reluctance to want to play anywhere but a select few cities and the dollars involved, there is a not inconsiderable risk to this trade. But, every free agent has a flaw, as well.

Craig B - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 11:35 PM EST (#265531) #
We traded away Jeff Mathis!? Great trade!

Who'd we get?
hypobole - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 11:36 PM EST (#265532) #
Hard to believe that only a month after the unmitigated disaster of a season, the Jays have suddenly and shockingly become relevant.

Hopefully a couple of more minor moves are in the offing, now that Toronto has become a much more desirable location for any low cost FA with multiple suitors. I wonder if this move may tilt the balance for Oliver to return for another season?

The big acquisitions, as some have pointed out, are not without risk, but no teams win without taking risks. Over and above the influx of talent, the fact Rogers Corp has given approval to absorb the costs incurred is a huge relief to what has been becoming an increasingly cynical fanbase.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 11:50 PM EST (#265533) #
Great, great trade.

Rogers can afford it and I'm glad the Jays are going for it.
Thomas - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 11:55 PM EST (#265534) #
So, is this trade a win for the Jays? I think it most likely is but it's not a certainty

I think the answer to this depends on how you define a win. I think this trade is a win in that I think it was unrealistic to expect the Jays to acquire three players of the calibre of Reyes, Johnson and Buehrle (and a nice supplementary piece in Bonifacio) in a trade and pay noticeably less than they did. If AA wanted the certainty of acquiring players, as opposed to the uncertainty of a bidding war for Anibal Sanchez or was scared off by the early demands of players like Sanchez and Jackson, then trading was the only alternative route and the price paid wasn't astronomical. Some of the players they gave up might turn out to be quite good one day, but that's the risk you run everytime you trade prospects and, besides, Josh Johnson is quite good right now.

However, if you view whether the trade is a win based on the outcome in terms of results on the field, then it's far less certain. As several comments have alluded to, there are risks with the players acquired and Johnson may only be here for a year. In three years the Jays may have a beaten down Jose Reyes earning a lot of money and still have not made the playoffs since 1993. (Of course that's a risk no matter what move is made, but it's easy to envisage a scenario where this happens with this group of players.) In that sense, it might be a loss in that you can say that AA should have tried to hitch his horse to a different wagon and made smaller trades to acquire Trevor Bauer and Jon Niese and kept Escobar at short. However, we have a limited knowledge of the alternatives and the costs (and to some extent AA does, as well).

It wasn't an overpayment and, while there is risk, it appears to be a calculated gamble that improves the team's chances at the playoffs considerably in 2013 and to some extent in at least 2014. From my vantage point today, I think you have to call that a win.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, November 13 2012 @ 11:57 PM EST (#265535) #
With the prices Relievers are signing for, I can understand the Esmil Rogers and Jeremy Jeffress acquisitions. Unless A.A. thinks the Bullpen needs upgrading, I think he's done here.

Josh Johnson will provide A.A. with possibly his first Qualifying Offer, should they be unable to come to terms on an extension. I don't think A.A. is finished with the Rotation. Even with J.A. Happ as the 5th Starter, there is very little depth of MLB-ready Pitchers with the Team or in the minors.

Does Emilio Bonifacio start in LF, at 2B, on the Bench or will be be traded? Does Macier Izturis start at 2B or on the Bench. Who is our D.H. If Edwin Encarnacion is at 1B and vice versa? I have more questions, but I don't think A.A. is finished yet.
rotorose - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 12:04 AM EST (#265536) #
Toronto fans aren't the only ones getting a little giddy over this trade. At ESPN, Dan Szymborski predicts 90 wins, and Keith Law says that he would offer condolences to Miami fans if he could find any. Now all we need from Santa Claus is health. Healthy backs, arms, shoulders, wrists, knees, elbows etc. Oh yes, and maybe a manager. Haven't seen any comments from John Farrell...
John Northey - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 12:23 AM EST (#265537) #
2012 ideally would be...
CA: d'Arnaud or JPA
1B: New guy
2B: New guy
3B: Lawrie
SS: Reyes
LF: New guy
CF: Rasmus
RF: Bautista
DH: Encarnacion
CA: Buck
OF: Davis
UT: Izturis
UT: Bonifacio

1B hopefully won't be Lind but someone else, 2B hopefully will be someone solid who is young (any 20 year old Alomar's out there?), and LF probably will be Gose with lots of backup time for Davis & Bonifacio.

Likely to see is Lind at 1B and Izturis/Bonifacio splitting 2B while someone else is the last guy on the bench (McCoy likely right now).

Still, AA has once again blown minds and jumped the hit counters for all Jay related sites. One can hope for another move to address 1B/LF/2B in a better way than using Lind and an Izturis/Bonifacio mix with Gose/Sierra in LF. JPA is a valuable trading chip now more than ever, and lots of kids are still available on the farm. I suspect LF/1B will be left alone until late in the winter but AA is on the prowl for a stronger 2B who is young and controllable for a long period of time.
dan gordon - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 12:54 AM EST (#265538) #
Wow, this is an amazing trade.  It's about time Rogers upped the payroll.  I'm shocked that some people are actually not really happy with this deal.  I think it makes the Jays contenders right away.  Love the additions of Reyes, Johnson and Buerhle, and I think a lot of people are underestimating Bonifacio.  He came up to the big leagues early and I think his career stats are misleading as a result.  He seemed to come into his own in 2010 at the age of 26, and posted a .360 OBP with a bunch of steals, while playing in a pitchers' park.  Last year he was bothered by injury most of the season and never really got untracked, but still had an OBP of .330.  He hit .320 in high A ball at age 21, and .302 in AAA at age 23.  I think he takes over as the left fielder and should do a very nice job there.  Only major hole I see now is DH or 1B, wherever EE isn't, and maybe they can trade Arencibia for something there.  Buck is an OK catcher until D'Arnaud is brought up sometime during the season.  Too much to hope for that they sign Shaun Marcum, too?  Probably.  Again, wow, and thanks for the early Christmas present. 
TamRa - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 01:57 AM EST (#265539) #
I insist the thread title be changed to

Oh. My. God!

:)

Oceanbound - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 02:14 AM EST (#265540) #
Actually a better title would be The Jeff Mathis Trade.
Ryan C - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 03:05 AM EST (#265541) #
"Jays deal Jeff Mathis, others in 12 player deal"

Sounds appropriate.  On a more serious note, Wow! 

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 03:41 AM EST (#265542) #
In as much as I do not think A.A. is finished, when will we see a new Top 30 prospect list?
TamRa - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 03:58 AM EST (#265543) #
since i got on late and knew nothing of this until 5 or 6 hours after the story broke, i'm just reacting to the thread as I read through it - and editing out anything where I'm needlessly repeating something that's been covered - apoilogies for the "stream of conscienceness" style 

---------------
Initial thoughts: I hate to see marisnick go but otherwise, i'm not mourning anyone. I was prepared to lose Nicolino (as he seemed most likely of the trio to be traded), won't particularly miss the whole "will hech ever hit?" drama, Like Alvarez but in context, fine with seeing him move on, Desclafini and Escobar mean nothing to me.

---
Bonivacio had one good year, i'd be pretty disappointed to see him starting anywhere on the field regularly. but i like him off the bench. I wonder if this doesn't make Davis tradeable?

---
Biggest deal since the Alomar trade obviously

---
I make us just a tic under $90 mil (89.9) in committed payroll for next year before Arb and pre-arb contracts. Although, i expect other moves are coming.Then 91.75 in 2014, and 102 in 2015 if all options were exercised. Only Reyes is guaranteed beyond 2015.

---
I have a hunch that Buck won't be flipped, if so not before spring, but rather this gives the team flexibility to shop JP without worrying about the consequences. We might be looking at a replay of Buck's last year hear, or a situation where d'Arnaud is the starter and Buck plays the "veteran mentor". If Buck is traded then your reserve is Wilson and that seems not optimal.

Arencibia may well be the ticket to the next left fielder.

---
Rotation:
Johnson
Buehrle
Morrow
Romero
Happ? McGowan? someone else?

Rates in the top 5-6 rtations in the majors if everyone plays up to their talent (i.e. no one gets hurt and Romero rebounds)

---
RE: WAR-
Additions add 12.2 n total, traded 2.4, net gain 9.8
Bautista rebounds to 2010 form adds 3.6
Rasmus matches 2010 = +2.9
Izturus typical season 2.1
Romero avg season before last year = 3.3
Happ full season last year = +0.7

There's some other variation - hitters who accumulated negative totals, relievers who were here part of the year, Santos and other injured pitchers ignored, departing relievers...so totally not scientific but that's over 22 additional WAR and I don't think we know the final roster yet by a long shot.

---
Acta was mentioned above and it reminds me of an interview I waslistening to the other day which made me think there's a decent chance Acta ends up bench coach or 3B coach on the staff next year, but not manager. Which might be the ideal outcome.

 ---
my one major worry is Reyes' hammys playing on turf.

---
For RSS - the next three guys in the rankings were Becarra, Labourt, and McGuire. Adjust your mental list accordingly.




Landomar - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 04:57 AM EST (#265544) #

We needed to upgrade the rotation, and Josh Johnson is an exciting addition!  Buerhle also gives us innings and some stability, if things go as expected.  We are also now looking at having a veteran pitching staff, which is strange after being so youth oriented in recent seasons. 

3 year xFIP Fangraphs time!

Johnson (3.37), Morrow (3.65), Romero (4.06), Buerhle (4.27), Happ (4.35)

Relievers are unpredictable, but our group of Santos, Janssen, Oliver, Delabar, Loup, Lincoln, and Rogers has good potential.  With any luck, our bullpen ERA will shake off last year and get back into the 3.00's for us.  For fun, let's assume we get 450 innings (average-ish workload) of 3.50 ERA.  Let's give Happ 150 innings and the other 4 guys 200 innings each.  That adds up to 1400 innings, which is about 10 to 80 innings short for a 162 game season, but close enough.  Crunch those numbers, using xFIP to predict ERA for the starters, and you get a team ERA of 3.78.    

A team ERA of 3.78 would give us a very good chance to compete in the American League.  That number is based on staying healthy, and our pitching staff (as a whole) replicating what they've done (on average) in recent years, but there you go.  :)

Ryan C - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 05:17 AM EST (#265545) #
Not to be a wet blanket but there are definite risks here.  Reyes and Johnson are injury risks on a team that was decimated by injuries last year, and Buerhle and Reyes' contracts are long and very expensive.  I still like the deal, and I like what it says about the Jays and their ownership and where they think they are heading in the next couple years.  I just really hope they're willing to swallow hard and stay the course if things don't work out exactly as they expect.  If in two or three years we start hearing about how the team can't compete because Reyes' salary is too much of a drain I will be thoroughly pissed.
Dave Till - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 06:58 AM EST (#265546) #
I'm not going to get my hopes up until the trade is official. Many things could still go wrong. One or more of the 83 people involved in the trade could fail their physical. Bud Selig could void the trade out of spite, and then fly down to Florida, pump mood-stabilizing drugs into the decision makers in the Florida front office, and demand a do-over. One or more of the ex-Marlins could pull a hissy fit and demand to be traded away from Toronto. Or the Earth could unexpectedly go spiralling into the sun. As a Jays fan, I've sadly learned to brace myself for bad news, and am not used to being given early Christmas presents.

But let's assume that this trade is actually happening. I'm not too worried about the players that the Jays gave up - in fact, I think that the Marlins could have done better. Escobar is a solid shortstop, but he dropped off a bit in 2012. Hech hasn't proven that he will hit. Giving up one of the big three pitching prospects is a bit painful, but they're all a long way from The Show. Alvarez is young, but the league was starting to get to him, and he needs a third pitch. Marisnick could be great, but even he hit a speed bump this year. And, of course, losing Mathis is a devastating blow that will take years to recover from (just seeing if you're paying attention). There's a real possibility that none of the players that the Marlins acquired will help them much.

As for the Jays - again, assuming the trade is really happening - the starting rotation is now no longer a problem, and the team's only significant weaknesses are first base (unless Lind turns back into his 2009 self) and left field, which are the easiest positions to upgrade at. The Jays are only missing one player (Escobar) from the offense that was leading the league in runs scored as late as mid-summer, and they have a deep enough bullpen even if Santos never pitches again. I want it to be April, please.

From a business perspective, the trade makes more sense than you might think. The 2012 Jays were 23rd out of 30 in league payroll, and the fan base was starting to wonder whether Rogers was going to pinch pennies. If the Jays had gone into 2013 having done nothing other than sign Maicer Izturis and maybe a mid-level starter, the grumblings would have gotten louder, and many fans would have stayed home. Also, there's a lot of money out there competing for the available free agents - every team has more to play with now, thanks to the new deal, the Dodgers and Angels seem to have bottomless wallets, and the Red Sox just gutted their roster and have enormous wads of cash to throw around. And I haven't even mentioned the Yankees yet. I would not be surprised if the off-season brings ludicrous contract offers for Greinke and others - offers that make the Jays' contract load seem like a bargain by comparison.

And what the hey - Josh Johnson will earn a qualifying offer, which means an extra draft pick in 2014.

Dave Till - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 07:06 AM EST (#265547) #
One more thing: how could anyone root for the Miami Marlins after this? I get the sinking feeling that they planned this all along: sign expensive free agents to get the taxpayers of Florida to build a ballpark, but back-load all the contracts and then dump the free agents after one relatively cheap year. They did that with Delgado too, didn't they? It does look like Miami is being run by sociopaths. If I were a Florida baseball fan, I would probably be drowning my sorrows in cheap rum and cursing the name of Loria.

(And that sound you hear is Expos fans being overcome by a wave of schadenfreude. Can Selig send Loria to own the Yankees now, please?)

China fan - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 07:35 AM EST (#265548) #
TamRa, I think your payroll estimate is much too low. Shi Davidi is estimating that the Jays payroll will be close to $120-million in 2013. If true, that puts the Jays into the top third of the league in terms of payroll. Here's how he calculates it:

For the first time in franchise history, the Blue Jays will break the $100-million (all figures US) plateau in 2013 with roughly $112.6 million already committed to 18 players next season.
That includes $3 million to Darren Oliver, now with more incentive to put off retirement another year, and projections of $4.5 million for Colby Rasmus, $3.8 million to J.A. Happ, and $2.5 million to Bonifacio, each arbitration-eligible.
Factor in another roughly $5 million for 0-3 service-time players and the Blue Jays will be pushing the $120 million threshold president Paul Beeston has boasted about in the past, rocketing from the bottom third ($85 million or so on the 25-man roster in 2012) to the upper third in payroll.
Thomas - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 07:40 AM EST (#265549) #
If Buck is traded then your reserve is Wilson and that seems not optimal.

There was some speculation last night, which seems quite logical in many respects, that there is a strong likelihood that if JP was traded, the Jays would start the season with Buck and Wilson and d'Arnaud in Triple-A and they would make him play his way to the majors and get some regular minor league at-bats when healthy again, which they speculated may take six weeks or so. Then he would start in something like a tandem with Buck before, hopefully, assuming the regular catching duties by 2/3rds of the way through the season. That's all speculation and ideal scenarios, but that seems like a reasonable approach to the situation if JP can by used to fetch a big bat LF/DH, which I think is a noticeably more pressing concern than 2B.

China fan - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 07:47 AM EST (#265550) #
"....Not to be a wet blanket but there are definite risks here...."

In addition to the risks of the trade itself, there are still huge questions about the rest of the Jays lineup and rotation. In fact, Reyes and Buehrle and Johnson might actually be more predictable and reliable than some of the question marks on the rest of the roster, especially Romero, Rasmus, Lind, etc. There are even questions about Bautista's recovery from his wrist injury. If Bautista has another great season, that will make a huge difference to the Jays in 2013. If he suffers lingering effects from the wrist injury, the team will be badly hurt. Similarly, what about Morrow's health? If he can avoid injury in 2013, that will be a big bonus too.

Romero is another key guy. If he has another equally bad season in 2013, there's no obvious mid-season replacement. The Jays aren't going to spend big bucks on a free-agent starting pitcher at this point. They're committed to Romero, which means that it will be hard to replace him if he tanks. There's no obvious alternative at Buffalo or New Hampshire, and nobody can know whether Drabek and Hutchison will recover fully from injury in 2013. So there are still huge questions about the pre-trade roster, and that could spell the difference between contending or failing in 2013.
China fan - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 07:54 AM EST (#265551) #
On the positive side: Romero might now be more likely to bounce back to his 2011 and 2010 performance level. The operation on his elbow might help. And more importantly, the arrival of Johnson and Buehrle will drastically reduce the pressure on Romero. He won't need to be the team ace. He won't feel all the pressure of being the leader of the rotation. He can slide into a comfortable position in the rotation, and he won't feel any need to pitch for 8 or 9 innings every time out. The bullpen should be stronger and better-rested. So he can just go out there and pitch 6 or 7 innings without much pressure. If all goes well, he could have a very good season.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 08:06 AM EST (#265552) #
Thank you TamRa, muchly appreciated. It's possible you are low in your money figures.

Decisions still need to be made.

Is J.A. Happ our 5th Starter or is he in the Bullpen as our 6th Starter, while A.A. acquires another Starter. As we have 7 openings to fill in the Bullpen and 9-10 players to fill it.

The decision was not to rush filling the LF void was made prior to the trade. Do we still wait or is this where a big bat goes? Too many MLB quality Catchers on this team, who goes? Who is our 2B, Emilio or Macier? Does Adam Lind stay? If he goes, who backs up 1B?

Still lots to do.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 08:09 AM EST (#265553) #
I don't think the marlins motives were quite as devious but I do agree that they never planned on keeping reyes/buehrle long term. I think they just looked at their roster and decided that with a few backloaded contracts they could contend for a ws. They were obviously wrong, couldn't handle the 2013 commitments without a pennant run, and blew it up. I do agree that this kind of behaviour cannot be tolerated by MLB and they definitely shouldn't qualify for revenue sharing.

The Rays definitely deserve that stadium though.

For us, Scary thought: last year everything that could go wrong did. What if next year everything went right? Health, rasmus development, romero recovery, lind rediscovers 2009 etc.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 08:22 AM EST (#265554) #
By the way, do we have Laffey under contract next season? I'd feel alot more comfortable having a Laffey-type waiting in the AAA wings. Actually I'd feel alot more comfortable having a Villaneueva-type in the bullpen, just not at 5/30.
Original Ryan - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 09:31 AM EST (#265555) #
Even though everyone is saying the league will approve the deal, I'm not going to celebrate until they do sign off on it. With the uproar the trade has created and the potential for bigger headaches down the road, I'm a bit worried that this could be a situation where Selig feels the need to intervene.

Hopefully it will be official soon.
Gerry - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 09:37 AM EST (#265556) #

Laffey is a free agent.  The Jays will have to sign some experienced starters for Buffalo.

Assuming the trade is completed, who is the Jays #6 starter, the guy on-call in case of an injury?

Drabek, Hutchison and McGowan are presumably unavailable.  Litsch is gone, Laffey is gone, Villanueva is gone.  Alvarez is traded.  Even Shawn Hill signed elsewhere.

As of today your #6 starter is either Brett Cecil or Chad Jenkins.

I assume there is a trade or a free agent signing still to come.

 

The Jays 40 man roster is full.  As far as I can see this trade brings in one more 40 man roster player than is going the other way.  The Jays will need to take another player off their 40 man.

Kasi - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 09:57 AM EST (#265557) #
Is it a guarantee that Carlos V is gone? They could resign him as a 5th starter/swingman. Unless he really wants the certainty of starting I guess. Still he might want to stick around to be on a winning team.
MatO - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 10:01 AM EST (#265558) #
I was going to complement Rogers for spending the money but in reality they're just finally spending the money they saved on the Vernon Wells deal and they're going to be getting an extra $25M per year in new TV money.  That should pretty much cover the contracts they're taking on.  I don't expect Johnson to resign but they should get a pick for him and it buys time for the injured guys to get healthy and the younger pitchers to develop.  They should have $25M coming off the books next year from Johnson, Lind and Buck's expiring contracts.
Moe - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 10:16 AM EST (#265559) #
"I'm happy. This shows a clear goal of going for it in 2013/2014. Reyes might be a weight on the payroll in a few years, but I trust AA could clear out anything after the Wells deal."

I like the deal for going for it in 2013, although it is risky with both Reyes and Johnson being injury prone. So, I'm not quite seeing the Jays as favorites. In 2014, Johnson will be gone.

Looking at Reyes and Buehrle's contracts, these guys were signed as FA last season to back-loaded deals. Even with the recent surge in salaries, they likely would not get what's left on the contract if they were FA this offseason. So say the Jays got them for free. Then the Jays traded Escobar, Hech, Nicolino, Marisnick, Alvarez and DeSclafani for 1 year of Johnson and Bonifacio -- I would say the Marlins win that one.

I would not at all be surprised if the Jays contend next year but fail to make it due to injuries and by 2015 we'll be cursing at this deal because the Jays have an old team with a lot of money on the books while some of the prospects make the all-star team as Marlins.

I get the excitement, but not the degree of it.

Mike Green - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 10:22 AM EST (#265560) #
I was off all media from 6 pm last night until this morning.  Wonderful thing that.  My morning paper had a headline "Jays in monster deal with Fish.", so I guess that I should say something.  I am going to think a little more before voting in the poll and commenting more generally on the trade.

Reyes is an excellent hitter and could get quite a bit better, but the metrics differ on the degree of his defensive decline over the last few years.  UZR says that it is typical age-related decline, whereas DRS has it more to be a fall off a cliff.  Any regular Marlins' watchers out there with some subjective observations? His BBRef comps are in order: Jimmy Rollins, Alan Trammell, Rafael Furcal, Dick Bartell, Travis Jackson, Larry Doyle, Ryne Sandberg, Chuck Knoblauch and Bill Dahlen.  I have always thought that he was a Hall of Famer in waiting, but somehow I doubt that he is going to spend his 30s at shortstop. 

It took Johnson about 8-10 starts last year to find his footing, but after that he was pretty much the pitcher he had been.  He's a pretty good bet to be very good again in 2013.  Most reasonable BBRef comp: David Cone. 

Buehrle keeps on chugging along.  Viola is the #1 BBRef comp, but really Buehrle is more like Glavine than anybody (although the physical similarity takes a little searching to find). 

Bonifacio hits respectably well against LHP and is a good corner OF platoon/supersub candidate.  If it were my club with the talent on hand, I would have Gose as my every day centerfielder and platoon Rasmus and Bonifacio in left.  That is not likely to happen, and it would be better if the club acquired a left-fielder and gave Gose a few months in Buffalo while letting Rasmus roam centerfield. 

85bluejay - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 10:24 AM EST (#265561) #

Mike Green - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 10:26 AM EST (#265562) #
I guess the deal was overwhelming.
Oceanbound - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 10:32 AM EST (#265563) #
Looking at Reyes and Buehrle's contracts, these guys were signed as FA last season to back-loaded deals. Even with the recent surge in salaries, they likely would not get what's left on the contract if they were FA this offseason. So say the Jays got them for free. Then the Jays traded Escobar, Hech, Nicolino, Marisnick, Alvarez and DeSclafani for 1 year of Johnson and Bonifacio -- I would say the Marlins win that one.

I don't get it. Are you suggesting that the Marlins could not get anything for Reyes and Buehrle? That is surely far from true. Or are you saying that if you take Reyes and Buehrle out of the trade, the trade doesn't look too hot for the Jays? Well, duh. Except they are in the deal.
Moe - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 10:47 AM EST (#265564) #
"Are you suggesting that the Marlins could not get anything for Reyes and Buehrle? That is surely far from true. Or are you saying that if you take Reyes and Buehrle out of the trade, the trade doesn't look too hot for the Jays? Well, duh. Except they are in the deal."

I'm saying the Marlins can't get anything for them right now. Buehrle is 3/52 and Reyes 5/96. Even after the latest round of inflation, they would have a hard time getting these deals as free agents right now. That means these contracts have zero surplus value and hence the Marlins wouldn't get anything for them.

If you read neutral commentators, many of them say that the Marlins as an organization are a joke but the trade in isolation was a good one for the Marlins.
Moe - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 10:54 AM EST (#265565) #
To quote Buster Olney:

"Miami deal embarrassing for team, MLB" but
"Interestingly, executives around the sport looking at this trade think that as a pure baseball trade -- in terms of the value in salary obligation and talent changing hands -- this was a good deal for the Marlins."

Which is exactly my point. Yes, as Jays fans with one year horizon we can be happy (although should be worried about health more than the Rays). But from a beyond 2014 perspective, the Marlins win this trade. If you can sign a free agent to a back-loaded deal and then get rid of the deal after 1 year, you do very well, especially if the deal was an overpay.

I don't think the Jays needed to give up this much talent to get what they got.
John Northey - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 10:58 AM EST (#265566) #
We'll see if Buehrle at 3/$52 is good or not soon enough. I suspect it is a good deal as $17 mil a season might soon be the norm for a solid #2/3 starter on the free market. Reyes at 5/$96 is $19.2 mil for a guy who is a 4 time all-star, 3 WAR per year player (lifetime). At $5 mil per WAR that is a loss, at $6 mil it is pretty much a break even. We'll see how the market is this winter but upping from just shy of $5 mil per WAR to $6 seems reasonable to expect and it might even go as high as $7 mil per WAR. If so then AA will look very smart. Again.
Dave Till - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 11:00 AM EST (#265567) #
I would not at all be surprised if the Jays contend next year but fail to make it due to injuries and by 2015 we'll be cursing at this deal because the Jays have an old team with a lot of money on the books while some of the prospects make the all-star team as Marlins.

Regardless of what happens, I'm not going to curse this deal. Sometimes, you just have to go for it.

Reyes is an excellent hitter and could get quite a bit better, but the metrics differ on the degree of his defensive decline over the last few years.  UZR says that it is typical age-related decline, whereas DRS has it more to be a fall off a cliff.

The Jays can probably handle having a shortstop with subpar range better than most teams, as Captain Canada at third has tremendous range.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 11:01 AM EST (#265568) #
Actually Moe, regardless of what Olney is saying I think that you're wrong. With all the extra money out there I think that both of those guys would easily better those contracts this offseason! think Buerhle could easily get 4/70 and Reyes would be 5/100 if not more given what's out there.

This is actually one of my favourite parts about this deal. We get our "free agent" additions at last years rates! I don't see either one of those contracts as albatrosses akin to Vernon Wells, I see them as reasonable value.

Regardless, we are a team that is uniquely suited to overspend on players. We have our two best hitters as well as 2 quality starting pitchers locked up at excellent rates.
Moe - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 11:24 AM EST (#265569) #
"This is actually one of my favourite parts about this deal. We get our "free agent" additions at last years rates! I don't see either one of those contracts as albatrosses akin to Vernon Wells, I see them as reasonable value."

Because the deals were back-loaded, the AAV is actually much higher than when the deal was signed. Reyes is now 19.2m/year (17.67 last year). Buehrle is at 17.3 (14.5 last year). And those were considered rich deals last year and not club friendly extensions.

Buehrle is not an albatross because it's short enough. Reyes on turf could become one very quickly, he is owed 70m for his age 32-34 seasons. Given his player profile, that is very scary.
Moe - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 11:31 AM EST (#265570) #
"Reyes at 5/$96 is $19.2 mil for a guy who is a 4 time all-star, 3 WAR per year player (lifetime). At $5 mil per WAR that is a loss, at $6 mil it is pretty much a break even."

Except you pay for future performance and not past. At least in theory. I would be less concerned if we were talking about a slugger with good aging potential but we are talking about a SS who lives of speed and already has declining range. Since the end of the steroid era, player have been aging a lot more naturally and the drop off starts earlier.

Look, I'm hoping I'm wrong. I'm just shocked by the how enthusiastic everyone is. This was by all accounts a good deal for the Marlins and it has the potential to work out ok for the Jays in the short term. And it's very risky long term. Considering how risky (bad) the long run is, I would have thought the short term is better and/or has more certainty.

bpoz - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 11:37 AM EST (#265571) #
I believe Moe is stating a possible outcome. It is negative but it could happen.

Nobody knows what will actually happen.

The $ discussion is interesting. Income - Expenses = Profit/ loss. Many have stated that this team will/may generate more Revenue. I assume during the regular season. Any guesses as to playoff Revenues.

If someone has time to guess/estimate playoff Revenues & Expenses then we will get a more clear picture. Just ball park guesses. Maybe even round by round.

Also if healthy we can throw 4 good SPs at any playoff opponent. That has to be worth something to our odds.
Moe - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 11:51 AM EST (#265573) #
"I believe Moe is stating a possible outcome. It is negative but it could happen."

Yes, I am. But that's true for all of us. Most just stress the positive short run outcome and ignore the very real risks, considering who was involved in the trade.

It's not that I don't like getting these guys, I just think it should have been cheaper. If Johnson has 2 years of control (surplus) left, I would be happier. Or if one of Hech/Nicolino/Marisnick would still be with the Jays I would consider the deal a better one.
eldarion - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 11:52 AM EST (#265574) #
Isn't the long term downside mitigated by the likelihood that the Jays' prospects will develop in the next 2-3 seasons such that they can replace the acquired players as their performance begins to substantially decline? At that point, they can be traded as salary dumps (with the Jays eating some of the salary). No? Am I being too optimistic?
Jdog - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 11:52 AM EST (#265575) #
Moe,

I think the main reason for excitement with this deal has to do with Rogers increasing payroll significantly. If your going to be a team sitting in the top 5-10 in payroll a bad contract isn't going to be the albatross it is when your in the bottom half of payrolls. The Jays already have a lot of their core locked up and as long as they have a few players making the minimum things should be fine. Even if Reyes flops in later years it won't catastrophic, it will basically just push us down to acting like a team with a below average payroll...which is where we were just yesterday.
TimberLee - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 12:10 PM EST (#265576) #
Obviously this trade could look like it favours the Marlins in four years, but that's what the Marlins are hoping for. The trade seems to favour the Jays for the immediate future and that's what Toronto wants. That's not difficult to grasp.
Beyonder - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 12:15 PM EST (#265577) #
The deal puts the team (on paper) among the contenders. For that reason alone it is a win. The thing I like the most about the trade is that the fit is perfect. In one fell swoop, the team addresses its three most glaring deficiencies: two front-end starters for the rotation, and an on base machine playing a premium position to hit in front of Jose and Encarnacion. There was no way to fix all of these holes in the free agent market alone.

Moe's point is absolutely correct though. Apart from the 1-year rental of Johnson, all we obtained for three of our top ten prospects and Alvarez (who I think will be the biggest loss), was two players we could have obtained last year for the money alone (or perhaps slightly more as a sweetener to induce them to come to Toronto). We obtained the back-loaded tail ends of these two deals, obtained both players a year removed from their respective primes, and missed out on the first (and normally highest value) year of their deals.

This is conjecture, but my guess is that this deal takes free agency out of play as a solution to plugging any future holes.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 12:18 PM EST (#265578) #
But from a beyond 2014 perspective, the Marlins win this trade.

Beyond 2014 is kind of irrelevant when they'll be playing in front of about 25 fans in 2013. The franchise is pretty much dead for the next few years, unless Loria sells.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 12:20 PM EST (#265579) #
For what its worth I'm not denying that Reyes and Buerhle are risks (so is Johnson). As would be anyone from free agency this offseason for that matter.

However, I am absolutely saying that the guys we just brought in would easily get those AAV's (and probably longer terms) this offseason if they were on the market. I stand by that statement!

As an exercise, lets say we decided on the free agency route. The equivalent is probably something along the lines of Greinke, Upton/Swisher (there really isn't a MI equivalent), and Jackson/Sanchez.
For that we'd be looking at probably 7/150 (21.5 AAV), 4/65 (16.25 AAV) and 6/96 (16 AAV) I'm going on rumoured values here and lets remember that most FA's exceded those last offseason. To sign these guys requires much more risk in terms of long term contracts.

On top of that we wouldn't be signing these guys all at once. Boston/NYC might could beat us to the punch on Jackson/Sanchez. Moreover, Upton or Sanchez's price isn't going to go down once we sign Greinke, its going up once. They'll know the money is there and smell blood.

I acknowledge the risk associated with all 5 guys coming in, its just that I don't see how it can't be considered an acceptable risk. This isn't a case of us bidding against ourselves on Vernon Wells and handing him probably 75 million more than he's worth. Its a case of us loading up on talent at market prices.
jerjapan - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 12:22 PM EST (#265580) #

I wonder if this move may tilt the balance for Oliver to return for another season?

An excellent question.  If so and you toss Oliver in with the rest of the haul, the deal looks even better.

I am sad to see Alvarez gone as well, but this does mitigate concerns about his having been rushed to the bigs.  4 years of control vs. 6 is a significant difference.  If we can keep the Lansing 2 in the minors until they are as ready as possible, we should be laughing. 

greenfrog - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 12:23 PM EST (#265581) #
As of today your #6 starter is either Brett Cecil or Chad Jenkins.

I wonder whether Nolin will edge his way into #6 territory at some point in 2013. In any case, I agree that the Jays need some more depth in the rotation.

I would still like to see the Jays aim to add a front-rotation young starter at some point over the next year or so. You can never have enough pitching, and JJ will likely be gone after 2013. Having another very good starter (as opposed to a #6) who will be around for a while would be helpful. Sam suggested Chris Sale in the other thread - someone like Sale would be about as good as it gets.

As for qualifying offers, it's possible that the Jays don't make one to Johnson, especially if he has injury or performance issues next year. Even if they do, a QO produces a supplemental round pick, which isn't quite as heady as the old days, when you might (or might not) receive a first-round pick as compensation.
JB21 - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 12:25 PM EST (#265582) #

Exactly. You, nor I, are actually paying anything for these contracts. So each players salary should be look at as a % of the budget. $20MM of $80MM is a lot different than $20MM of $120-$150MM.

Truthfully, I don't think we gave up THAT much as far as prospects go. Again, if our system looked like it did 5 years ago, then this would be a true roll of the dice. But when you have the pitching depth that the Jays have (especially at lower levels, which is where they gave them up), and you still have Gose behind Colby in the CF depth chart, it doesn't look so bad. We still have a lot of talent pitching potentially coming in 2-3 years, not too mention Hutch, Drabek in 6-12 months.

I could not be more happier, we just went from a Top 23 Payroll Team to a Top 7-10 Payroll team. I'm not too sure how else we were going to land this amount of talent, for this amount of money, and only give up we gave up. Interested to see what happens with LF/2B/DH/1B, if anything. But we should have quite the pent up demand for Summer 2013 in Canada.

Here's hoping that we can flip JPA for a 1B or LF bat, and then I'm fine with getting creative with our bench to fill the remaining holes.

whiterasta80 - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 12:27 PM EST (#265584) #
Actually Jerjapan, in many cases I think that rushing a player to the majors and having fewer years of control can favour the team. Obviously this isn't true of the Trouts and Harpers and Strasburg's of the world, but of course these guys weren't rushed.

Conversely, if you are extending someone before they absolutely blow up you can end up with some fairly team friendly contracts. Brandon Morrow comes to mind here. Jay Bruce in Cincy too. It is entirely possible that Alvarez may perfect that elusive 3rd pitch around year 4 and that the Marlins will be able to extend him at good value before then.

And then trade him before the extension kicks in.
greenfrog - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 01:13 PM EST (#265585) #
One nice thing about this deal, coupled with the Izturis signing, is that the Jays now have a lot of infield and outfield flexibility. Izturis and Bonifacio can cover a range of positions, giving injury-prone players like Lawrie and Reyes a day off here and there. Lots of speed, too, among Reyes, Bonifacio, Izturis and Lawrie.

However, there is precious little infield depth in the minors, with essentially no prospects close to the majors.
John Northey - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 01:28 PM EST (#265586) #
The lack of infield depth in the minors would explain Izturis and Bonifacio nicely - they cover 2B/SS/3B easily and can do so for the next 2-3 years at which point AA would probably go find another couple of guys like them. There are always a few of them around and they are reasonably priced.

As to the budget, remember that with the inflow of cash to all ML teams odds are what would've been a top 10 payroll in 2012 will end up more like a 15-20 range in 2013.

As to signing Reyes last winter - he was a type A thus it would've cost the Jays their 17th overall pick, DJ Davis. Buehrle was a type B so no compensation. Thus factor that in if you are going to argue what these guys would've cost if signed last winter. Plus, of course, the Jays would've had to outbid, not just tie the Marlins.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 01:30 PM EST (#265587) #
We were only an Adeniy flameout away from having precious little cover in the high minors before. Izturis and Bonifacio should be fine until we can develop someone of MLB quality. I also think Jonathan Diaz can provide passable cover in a pinch.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 01:33 PM EST (#265588) #
Along with really rounding out the pitching staff, this trade gives the offense more depth - in terms of positional flexibility - and the speed element helps diversify the attack so the club doesn't have to try and rely on the three-run homer all the time, which makes the team boring as hell. With that said, the lineup still drops off significantly after Reyes-Lawrie-Bautista-Encarnacion, unless Izturis goes in the two-hole. 
TamRa - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 02:15 PM EST (#265589) #
"TamRa, I think your payroll estimate is much too low. Shi Davidi is estimating that the Jays payroll will be close to $120-million in 2013."

I did not estimate the payroll, i totaled the existing gauranteed contracts.

---
"The Rays definitely deserve that stadium though."


I'd become a huge fan of Selig if he ordered the Marlins and Rays to swap places, from ownership to bat-boy.

---
Assuming the trade is completed, who is the Jays #6 starter, the guy on-call in case of an injury?

For me, they line up like this:

Johnson
Buehrle
Morrow
romero
Happ
McGowan (yeah, I know!)
Jenkins (I assume to be in AAA starting)
Cecil (if the emergency is grave enough to stretch him out)
McGuire/Stilson (whoever is doing well enough to earn consideration)
Nolin (barring a setback)

Like you, i assume there are a couple of Laffey types (possibly even Laffey himself actually) to be added to Buffalo. I would include Jefress, as i assume the optimal role for him is to be stretched out in a AAA rotation in order to serve this purpose, but since he is out of options there's a good chance they will lose him on wavers.

also, Shi Davidi speculated last night that Lincoln and/or rogers might go through ST as a starter giving that option and flexibility.

---
The Jays 40 man roster is full.  As far as I can see this trade brings in one more 40 man roster player than is going the other way.  The Jays will need to take another player off their 40 man.

I noticed that. I'm speculating Wade.
---

We'll see if Buehrle at 3/$52 is good or not soon enough. I suspect it is a good deal as $17 mil a season might soon be the norm for a solid #2/3 starter on the free market.

My thoughts as well.

In the last three years, we may well be paying Reyes some20% or so more than he is worth. But it's a not unreasonable premium IF the front end of the deal works out as hoped.

---
Regardless of what happens, I'm not going to curse this deal. Sometimes, you just have to go for it.

This. Exactly.


greenfrog - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 02:56 PM EST (#265590) #
Also, if all else fails, in a couple of years we should be able to package Reyes and Buehrle to the Dodgers for a couple of high-ceiling prospects:)
electric carrot - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 03:06 PM EST (#265591) #
At this point I think the Jays should pick up a DH. Why pay all this money and not get into the playoffs? A decent DH who can give us just over .800OPS would be a significant improvement and could be difference maker on this team.
China fan - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 03:17 PM EST (#265593) #
On the 40-man roster question: one of the 4 catchers is bound to come off the roster soon, via trade. There's no way that the Jays are keeping 4 catchers on the roster this year. But the other obvious candidate to be dropped from the 40-man is Mike McCoy. He is out of options this season, which renders him nearly useless to the Jays. No point keeping him on the roster if they can't send him up and down from the minors. And they already have 3 good middle-infielders: Reyes, Izturis and Bonifacio. I assume McCoy will be dropped soon.
mathesond - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 03:27 PM EST (#265594) #
Something that occurred to me while I was pretending to work is that Buehrle might not be happy being traded to a place where he can't bring his pit bull. Now, I doubt he'd walk away from the millions remaining on his contract, but I don't think I'd be disappointed if he got traded to the Tigers for Smyly and Dirks.
China fan - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 03:37 PM EST (#265595) #
".....I don't think the Jays needed to give up this much talent to get what they got...."

I think you're overestimating the talent that the Jays traded, and under-estimating the price that any team has to be pay for premium pitching and an all-star shortstop. It's always been clear that the Jays would have to trade prospects to get premium pitching, and that's what they've done -- while preserving their best prospects. Because we've all been following Marisnick and Nicolino and Hechavarria so closely, we're overestimated their value. They're all significant question marks. And they are surplus to requirements. Marisnick will have a difficult time overtaking Gose and Rasmus at CF, while Hechavarria is rendered unnecessary by Reyes and Bonifacio and Izturis. As for Escobar and Alvarez, have we already forgotten how lousy their 2012 seasons were? There's no assurance at all that they will improve significantly in 2013.

To assume that the Jays could have easily signed Reyes/Johnson/Buehrle as free agents is a big assumption and probably a mistaken one. Reyes, like Beltran last year, might not have wanted to play on artificial turf. And none of them would have wanted to pay Canadian taxes. There's already speculation that the new acquisitions will take a huge hit by moving from low-tax Florida to high-tax Ontario. To sign them as free agents would have required several tens of millions of dollars extra. Trading for them was much cheaper.

"....Most just stress the positive short run outcome and ignore the very real risks...."

I don't think anyone is ignoring the risks. But, as I said in an earlier post, most MLB players are risks anyway. It's risky to assume that Romero or Rasmus will improve in 2013. It's risky to assume that Morrow will have a healthy season. It's risky to assume that Bautista will be unaffected by his wrist injury. Every team's roster is filled with risk. The new acquisitions are not any riskier than any other key player on the Jays roster.
Lylemcr - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 04:42 PM EST (#265597) #

Good trade. 

In the end, prospects are prospects.  Jake M might be regretted, but we already have Gose.  Nicolini might be regretted, but we also have Sanchez and Synderguard. But...They might not be.  The Jays have a deep system, but need some help in the majors now.  This makes them a contender (assuming another small piece or two are coming yet).

This reminds me of the Pat Gillick days.  He loaded up the minor leagues, but we didn't see them too often.  They would always be shuffled off for peices in the major leagues.

The only thing I don't like about this is that it doesn't fill the starting rotation yet(I see Happ as a #6) and it doesn't solve the 1b problem.  But I can live with Lind at 1st and I think there are a lot of pitchers the Jays can pick up for experiments.

 

MatO - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 04:47 PM EST (#265599) #

The players would have taken a tax hit if they were traded to a team in a high tax state like California or New York as well.

Mike Green - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 04:54 PM EST (#265600) #
The questions seem to me to be: how much better the club is likely to be after the trade in 2013 than it would have been without it,  is the current club likely to may the playoffs as is and if not, how far away are they,  and what is the cost down the road?

My answers to the questions.  The club is obviously better, but with respect to the Jays players traded, it is a 'sell low' situation.  Alvarez and Escobar both had off-years in 2012, and there is every reason to believe that both will be better in 2013.  I still think that Johnson alone is likely worth 5 wins.  Buehrle can be expected to be better than Alvarez and Reyes can be expected to be better than Escobar.  It all adds up to enough to put the club in contention, but frankly probably a player or two away from being likely to make the playoffs. 

As far as the cost down the road, who the hell knows?  Justin Nicolino could be Tom Glavine or Brett Cecil and Aaron Sanchez could be Roger Salkeld or Roger Clemens.  Jake Marisnick could be great or he might not have a major league career at all.  The odds are pretty good that Nicolino or Alvarez or Marisnick will be a valuable major league player in three-four years and decent that one of them is one of the 15-20 most valuable properties in baseball at that point.  Obviously, the club will have higher committed payroll then and players of somewhat less value attached to that committed payroll (although I don't particularly think Reyes or Buehrle are near the end of their run).

If ownership thinks that this trade is enough and isn't spending a cent more, it probably is a bad idea.  If ownership is making a go at it this year, with the intention of pulling a Loria next year or the year after, it probably is a good idea.  If ownership is intent on keeping payroll at in the top 40% of the league, it probably is worth it, as the club will probably have enough free capital in three-four years to reinvest and can hope that the next crop currently in Low A and below is ready.  I am hoping that the latter scenario is what ownership intends, but know enough to not expect it.



John Northey - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 05:07 PM EST (#265601) #
A good question is what would it have taken to get a solid starter for one year? Greinke was the premier guy last summer and he cost the Angels 3 players - Ariel Pena (a 23 year old with good K/IP but poor BB/9), John Hellweg (same) and Jean Segura (a top 60 prospect at SS with a decent bat) for just 13 starts.

To get 2 solid starters plus an all-star SS and backup catcher & an infielder/outfielder it cost a slumping SS, a hotshot defensive SS, a backup catcher, a minor league hotshot in CF and 3 young pitchers. To get one starter giving up 3 kid pitchers was inevitable. No matter how I cut it this deal look like a good one for the Jays while the Marlins get to do what they do best, cut payroll.

The only way I see it blowing up is if some of the kids become big stars. Always a risk in a trade, but a risk that must be taken if you ever want to be a playoff team.
TamRa - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 05:33 PM EST (#265603) #
I assume McCoy will be dropped soon.

Another valid suggestion. I tend to forget he's on the roster when considering such moves.
PeteMoss - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 05:45 PM EST (#265604) #
Do you really think that if the Jays decided to move Reyes or Buehrle at mid-season this year they wouldn't land anything of note?

They are overpaid yes but they aren't Vernon Wells overpaid. I'd also suspect that Reyes would get that deal on the open market if he was available. You may think its overpaid.. but it is the market rate.
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 05:53 PM EST (#265605) #
The club is obviously better, but with respect to the Jays players traded, it is a 'sell low' situation.

On the other hand, I'm thinking you might be able to say the same about the Marlin's players:
-Josh Johnson had the lowest ERA+ of his career except for a 15-IP season in 2007 (I know, injury, etc).
-Buehrle just had his 3rd worst season of a 13 year career, and had a better 2011
-Bonifacio had a decent/good 2011, not-so-good 2012
-Buck was OPS+ 87 in 2011, 75 in 2011
-Reyes reverted to career average after a killer 2011

Not saying they're all going to rebound to "best ever seasons" and it could all be age-related decline, etc, but they all underperformed their 2011 totals in 2012. If they had performed up to 2011 levels in 2012, I doubt we get them for the same set of players in return..
China fan - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 05:58 PM EST (#265606) #
"....If ownership thinks that this trade is enough and isn't spending a cent more, it probably is a bad idea...."

Wow. The payroll jumps spectacularly to nearly $120-million and some people are still grouching that the Jays aren't doing enough.
CeeBee - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 06:13 PM EST (#265607) #
While I'm happy the payroll has made a huge jump I agree with MG. It's been started but it's not quite finished IMO. We need a "Gomes" type and a "Francis" type. It may not cost all that much more anyway and might as well go "all in" :) Could quite easily be a trade or 2 for which we do have the parts available.
greenfrog - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 06:29 PM EST (#265608) #
The one player I'm most worried about losing is Nicolino. Just a hunch.
Landomar - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 06:31 PM EST (#265609) #
I wonder how much Melky Cabrera would cost to come fill our hole in LF?  Our lineup is starting to look like a Dominic Republic allstar team, and he would fit right in.  :)
China fan - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 06:32 PM EST (#265610) #
If the Jays solve LF and DH with trades, I have a feeling that some people will still complain that those cheapskate Jays failed to spend "a cent more" on their payroll.

Having said that, the criticism of under-spending was certainly very valid a year ago, when the need for additional pitching was painfully obvious. But I think AA has learned, after the Carlos Beltran experience, that the free-agent market is not a very practical way of upgrading the team. Trades are the way to do it, and they don't necessarily require a cent more in payroll.
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 06:42 PM EST (#265611) #
It may be that the holes can be filled without spending money, but I doubt it.  The amounts involved are (I am pretty sure) relatively modest. 

This has happened before.  The club increased payroll dramatically at the time of the Burnett/Ryan acquisitions, but then ownership got cold feet and an opportunity was lost.  In for a dollar, then in for a dime. 

krose - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 06:48 PM EST (#265612) #
All this speculation about DH/1B, and NO love for DC???
ayjackson - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 07:00 PM EST (#265613) #
I think they should trade Lind and try to sign a full-time DH like Lance Berkman.  Lind may very well be attractive to Texas, because he absolutely rakes in Arlington.  Whether that could be expected to continue or not, is probably irrelevant, as long as Texas thinks it is.  We could send JPA, Lind and a couple million and probably land Derek Holland.  That would relegate HApp to swingman, at least initially.
bpoz - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 07:26 PM EST (#265614) #
I am just trying to figure out where I stand.

I love this trade because the ML team is way better. This is most important to me.

This is a trade not FA signing so we have some control of what ever is scary.

A lot more can be said, but in a nut shell we should go for it hard in 2013. I really do not know what more we need other than a good manager & luck.

The prospects we gave up are unknowns, definitely good prospects. However we should get 1 back by the draft choice we receive if we lose JJ. Buehrle & Reyes still can be dealt in future years for about 3 prospects. So AA is still in control.

Lastly & of most importance to me, we could make the playoffs & win a WS. If that happens I hope I am wise enough to enjoy it. Bask in the glow of a long awaited championship. This is day 2 of that journey.
92-93 - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 08:27 PM EST (#265617) #

"....If ownership thinks that this trade is enough and isn't spending a cent more, it probably is a bad idea...."

Wow. The payroll jumps spectacularly to nearly $120-million and some people are still grouching that the Jays aren't doing enough.

If the Jays solve LF and DH with trades, I have a feeling that some people will still complain that those cheapskate Jays failed to spend "a cent more" on their payroll.

You really need to stop creating narratives in your head to argue with, China Fan. Your response has nothing to do with your quote of Mike Green. He wasn't grouching that the Jays aren't doing enough; he was evaluating the deal in a variety of possible contexts, and I agree with him. Ricciardi (Godfrey?) gave Vernon Wells his contract in an environment where the Jays were costing Rogers over 120m CDN per season. Had he known that wouldn't continue it's unlikely he commits to owing one player a quarter of his available payroll, which was the case when he arrived and had to trade off Delgado. This trade was a very positive step, but only if it signals a willingness by Rogers to spend something more in line with their market model for all the years that the team is committed to Buehrle & Reyes.

92-93 - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 08:30 PM EST (#265618) #

We could send JPA, Lind and a couple million and probably land Derek Holland. That would relegate HApp to swingman, at least initially.

I'd send JPA, Lind, AND Happ if it landed them Holland and got rid of Lind's committment. That would require more of a future committment but free up 5m for 2013 that could be very well spent in the bullpen/outfield.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 09:10 PM EST (#265619) #

Jose Reyes is a significant upgrade on Yunel Escobar - they both have their strengths and weaknesses - he's a significant upgrade on Yunel.  Voices were adamant that Escobar must go - guess what.   Adeiny Hechavarria was not seen as "the answer" to our Short Stop needs.  There must have been doubts about his future with the Club - he was traded.  I'm surprised we got as much value as we did for him.   Both players are a natural fit for Miami and the Stadium`s location.

Josh Johnson, when healthy, is one of the best pitchers in the game - when healthy.   How he pitches, determines his value next contract.   If he can't be re-signed, then A.A. could make his first Qualifying Offer.  Next June, draft picks earned from Qualifying Offers occur after Pick 37 - only 9 Qualifying Offers were made.  This is the only way A.A. could ever get an extra draft pick, so I can't see him signing anyone that could cost him a draft pick.  If J.J. accepts the offer, maybe a long-term contract ensues.   This is my Opening Day Starter.

Mark Buehrle is the veteran Starter A.A. was after.  He makes 30+ starts, pitches 200+ innings, wins 13+ games, in under 3 hours each game, each year.  What more can you ask for, he's my #2 Starter.

Emilio Bonifacio is my starting 2B mainly because he plays so well with Reyes, and that's my top 2 in the Lineup - they've got so much speed.   John Buck acquisition, this early in the offseason, offers A.A. options - J.P. Arencibia is a top trade piece.   With Buck, Bobby Wilson, then d'Arnaud, then Jimenez as our catching depth, J.P. could be moved.

Henderson Alvarez is another perfect fit for that Team and Stadium, as he`ll start for them this season.  Justin Nicolino will start very soon for the Marlins, that`s how they work.

If you include, a year early, the $25.0 MM boost everyone is getting in 2014 on the new TV deal, the $10.0 MM earned from increased Attendance (400K more) and an "assumed Budget" of $85.0 MM, the total is $120.0 MM.   So did Roger`s opened their wallet or was this increase normal?   I expect Attendance to increase ($10.0 MM per 400K in Fans) enough to fund this adventure.   If $120.0 MM is this years cap, it`s unlikely A.A. takes on much  salary without moving salary or getting money back in the trade.  If you add up Guarenteed Salaries (including players who were on 60-day DL at season end): $101.4 MM; Pre Arb Salaries: 3.0 MM; Arby Salaries: $14.0 MM: you get a total of  approximately $118.4 MM.  Or a difference of $2.6 MM under the Cap.   Now cash came back and it`s possible it was more than the $4.0 MM initially reported.   At a minimum, A.A has $6.6 MM left to spend.

I`m not happy with Adam Lind as D.H. and 1B backup, but I can`t see this being improved unless Lind is traded.

 

ayjackson - Wednesday, November 14 2012 @ 11:51 PM EST (#265620) #

I'd send JPA, Lind, AND Happ if it landed them Holland and got rid of Lind's committment

I'd like to keep Happ for depth.  Janssen might be a good candidate for that trade, though.  We could send a few dollars as well.

Geoff - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 12:19 AM EST (#265621) #
Is nobody else concerned that some of the players acquired from Miami might not be caring to live up to their professional contracts? Did nobody notice that one seemed to demand to be traded earlier today?

I was initially concerned about Buehrle, who has talked about his interest in early retirement before and when he was a free agent held a great deal of importance to location, location, location. He's a good southern boy with a big heart and little interest in making a living north of the mason-dixon line, let alone the 49th. He looks to me like a prime candidate to be a sourpuss about coming here.

Then there's Reyes, and how is mr. hamstrings going to embrace a 5-year term on the artificial spaces of Rogers Yard? He talked when he was signed of how important joining the large spanish community was to him (which granted may not be as important to him as it was something nice to say) but I suspect he's got reservations about coming here. Pretty sure he'd much prefer someplace really hot, but I have hope he will be a consummate professional.

And now to top the list of concerns is Josh Johnson. I'm not sure if anyone else is noticing this but his agent went on Jeff Blair's show today and effectively demanded a trade from the Jays. Johnson's agent says "I feel like there has to be another piece to this trade." And further he adds, "There are so many teams that are interested in Josh Johnson that if the Yankees or Texas or some of these teams looking for a frontline starter wanted to give up a tonne, it would seem like it would be against the way that Alex normally does business to not listen and make a trade if he could acquire a bunch of top prospects for one of the players in this deal."

Read between the lines it says : MY CLIENT WANTS TO BE TRADED FROM THIS FORSAKEN PLACE. Or: "my client will not be spending his free agent year performing in this little market. Call us when you have the next trade lined up."

If this trade is going to work out well, it may be that those three big pieces must be flipped. Or one will not try, one will retire and one will spend most of the time on the DL not wanting to do more, and it's a big disaster.

TJ Caino - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 12:38 AM EST (#265623) #
Do you really think that if the Jays decided to move Reyes or Buehrle at mid-season this year they wouldn't land anything of note?

They are overpaid yes but they aren't Vernon Wells overpaid.

Well, it's not like Wells fetched nothing in return.
TJ Caino - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 12:42 AM EST (#265624) #

Read between the lines it says : MY CLIENT WANTS TO BE TRADED FROM THIS FORSAKEN PLACE. Or: "my client will not be spending his free agent year performing in this little market. Call us when you have the next trade lined up."

Not to put words in AA's mouth, but "when your client's a free agent, he can sign with whomever he chooses."

earlweaverfan - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 01:04 AM EST (#265625) #
Oh really?

Yes, every market has special qualities that may be attractive.  And yes, for Reyes, having a Hispanic community in Miami might have been a positive when he went there.  And Buehrle might well prefer to be down south, all other things being equal.  And Johnson may think he belongs in one of the biggest U.S. cities, just cause he does.

However, all of these guys are at an age and stage when they have tons of baseball ahead of them.  All of them would like to contend for the World Series.  All of them thought they might have found that opportunity in Miami, but now have discovered that Miami has no intention of contending for several more years.  Playing for any contending club has got to be better than playing for the Fish.  2012 was a real setback for each of them.  Yet there is no evidence that any one of them stopped giving it their all, when the dreams that they signed up for disintegrated before their eyes.

Now for the positive reasons why they might just play their hearts out here.  Johnson is one year away from FAgency - do you have any reason for your belief that he will throw away his chance to land a major contract by dogging it in 2013?  If he really does want to be elsewhere, a great year at Toronto will give him the chance to show that his injury history is not an issue any more.  If he helps Toronto get to (even succeed in) the post-season, that will raise his standing even more...

Reyes will be joining a club that will have several of its top players who can welcome him in Spanish, starting with Bautista, Encarnacion and Romero.  You can just bet that Jose Bats will already be contacting Reyes to welcome him to the club.  That should be very appealing.

As for Buerhle, this is a guy who seemed to be fine playing for Chicago for many years - it is not as if he can't stand northern climes.

Why would you be so quick to believe that players who have been traded for would be so unhappy coming here?  Could it be that you are not a big fan of the city yourself?  I find myself very skeptical having to base my interpretation of someone's feelings, based on what their agent may be implying 'between the lines'.  While I have heard of players who have wanted not to sign with Toronto, when they had the option, I am unable to recall any who came here against their will, and then demanded to be traded due to a dislike for the city.  Many who come here with no previous connection here end up liking it a lot.

Did you try this alternative explanation?  This agent may be feeling a tad defensive, having encouraged his client to accept a contract without a no-trade clause with Miami, only to have them ship him off again.  All agents for Miami players may have some 'splainin' to do.

Still, if AA does run across another team that wants to buy high for any of his latest acquisitions - and would offer strong pitching to join the Jays' rotation - then of course he will look at it.  But not out of fear, only out of opportunity.


Geoff - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 01:44 AM EST (#265626) #
My concern about Buehrle is that he's a guy who had serious thoughts about retiring because he has a very young family that he wants to dedicate himself towards raising. Of course, if that was so important, the question is valid why he didn't get a no-trade clause to be sure his family life was secure. My guess is the answer to that question is money. The Marlins offered so much of it, he either didn't care or put blind trust into the idea that they wouldn't uproot his family and place them where they wouldn't be happily together. There have been other families that weren't comfortable raising kids here. I don't hate Canada; it just happens that way. There are Americans who can't get comfortable with the idea of setting roots here, or playing here when their families are not here. The guy is portrayed as having crazy love for his pit bull, and as has been reported around the media on this story, Ontario does not allow his pooch to exist here. Awkward. Maybe the guy has a secret love of Canada and its great outdoors. Let's hope he comes out and says that. He's got three years to enjoy it here unless he wants to retire or hope the Jays can somehow get good young pitching for him.

I never had any reason to think Johnson would be a problem until I heard what his agent had to say on Blair's show. Perhaps Johnson's agent has gone rogue and does in no way reflect the attitude of Josh Johnson. Perhaps JJ will give it his all no matter what transactions occur or not. Let's hope.
Geoff - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 01:51 AM EST (#265627) #
Here is a Passan article from 2009 detailing Buehrle's interest in raising his family being greater than making millions as a ballplayer. Which he reiterated in 2011. Perhaps it was all born of the bravado of being a new father, which has now worn off and he doesn't care that much about dedicating himself to his kids as being filthy rich and famous. Who is to judge what is truly in the guy's heart?

I'm just saying it's enough to give pause about whether he'll be committed to playing for the Jays until he makes a statement that he will do just that. When's the press conference going to happen to introduce everybody?

acepinball - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 02:52 AM EST (#265628) #
Ricky no hablo espanol. He mentioned on Intentional Talk how he and Ben Francisco often mistakenly get spoken to in Spanish by Latin players.

I understand how Buehrle and Reyes could both feel a little betrayed after signing their contracts, but for the $ figure they get, I don't think they care where they play. Although the turf is probably a major gripe for Reyes, I suspect playing on a team with upwards of 5 Dominicans (JBats, EE, Bonifacio, Rogers, L. Perez) will be pretty fun if they win.
China fan - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 03:08 AM EST (#265629) #
"....You really need to stop creating narratives in your head to argue with, China Fan...."

And the mandatory 92-93 ad hominem attack-machine is launched again....
Jonny German - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 03:27 AM EST (#265630) #
While I frequently find 92-93's style overly abrasive, his substance is usually on the money. And that's definitely the case here. To say Mike Green was "grouching" is absurd.
Jonny German - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 04:00 AM EST (#265631) #
As for the trade, I'm very happy with it. The Jays were not going to get this kind of talent on the free agent market without spending far more money, and opportunities to add this kind of talent via trade are extremely rare. Before Tuesday none of us had any hope of 2013 being a competitive year for the Jays.

There's plenty of risk, no doubt. But if you're looking at getting an ace talent pitcher, a 200-inning machine, and a perennial all star leadoff hitter... how do you do that without taking a lot of risk?
China fan - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 05:16 AM EST (#265632) #
It's true that Mike outlined three scenarios for the future. But the only scenarios that he appears to support are: 1) pulling a Loria and dumping a huge amount of payroll after 2013; or 2) keeping the team's payroll in the top 40% of the league for the indefinite future. Then he questions whether the owners "intend" this latter scenario, and he says he doesn't expect it. My point is that it's far too early to know, or guess, or judge, the long-term "intention" of the owners after 2014. I'm sure the owners themselves don't know what they'll do after 2014. But to cynically question the post-2014 financial commitment of the owners -- after they've just accepted a massive new $166-million financial commitment for five players in 2012 -- does indeed strike me as "grouching."
China fan - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 05:21 AM EST (#265633) #
"....Read between the lines it says : MY CLIENT WANTS TO BE TRADED FROM THIS FORSAKEN PLACE. Or: "my client will not be spending his free agent year performing in this little market. Call us when you have the next trade lined up...."

You're reading too much into the agent's comments. In fact, in another quote, that same agent actually went into some detail about how Toronto is now a much more attractive place for MLB players. Rather than demanding a trade, he's saying that Toronto is suddenly a lot more attractive place to play. Here's an excerpt from Davidi's latest:

"The Blue Jays went from a four to an 8˝ in one day," said Matt Sosnick, the agent for right-hander Josh Johnson. "Players want to play for a winner. There’s an unknown going to Canada, but with one trade they’ve made it more attractive to the other 750 players in the major-leagues."
China fan - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 05:56 AM EST (#265634) #
And from the same Davidi article on Johnson, more quotes suggesting that he's not exactly demanding a trade:

He was in Florida for his physical Wednesday afternoon, eager and confident to open a new chapter in his career. "He’s thrilled, he’s really excited," said Sosnick. "He told me, ‘I really feel like we have a good chance of winning the AL.’"
Jevant - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 08:54 AM EST (#265635) #

You need to read or listen to the entire segment.  I don't think it is possible to turn those comments into "MY CLIENT WANTS..." etc.

I do think he's right that another trade is coming (obviously we are going to deal a catcher), but if we deal a starter it will be Buerhle, not Johnson.  I wouldn't be shocked to see Buerhle go to a Detroit or Texas in exchange for a younger SP, and AA continues to pursue a veteran arm (such as a Marcum or McCarthy).

rfan8 - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 08:57 AM EST (#265636) #

The FAN played that stupid clip from Johnson's agent over and over again yesterday in their updates without giving it the proper context. The agent suggested that possible further moves could be made because AA is always willing to listen to offers.  Heck if Texas comes back and offers Profar and Holland for one year of JJ, it would be hard to say no. 

Jevant - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 08:58 AM EST (#265637) #

Absolutely.  Johnson is by far and away the one of the "big 3" coming in that I am least worried about convincing to want to play here.

I assume that Reyes will be fine after a chat with some other members of the team.  Buerhle is the one I am most concerned about, but also the one that I am least concerned about flipping.  Someone said Smyly/Dirks above...I'd probably take Smyly straight up for Buerhle and reinvest the monetary savings into a Marcum/McCarthy type anyways.

Dave Till - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 09:12 AM EST (#265638) #
All of this is Roger Clemens' fault. If it weren't for him, the idea that a traded or signed player could complain loudly enough and thus force a trade would not even be on anyone's radar.

I'm not worried about Johnson. He seems happy enough to be here (which is good, as he has no choice but to play here), and he's extra super motivated, as he will be a free agent.after the season. Just think of him as a David Cone for a new generation, and enjoy the show.

Moe - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 09:38 AM EST (#265639) #
Apparently the Red Sox were also in negotiations with the Marlins: Reyes and Johnson as a pure salary dump. If that was the competing offer, AA overpaid by a mile.
Ryan Day - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 09:40 AM EST (#265640) #
Even if Johnson doesn't want to be here, it's in his best interests right now to shut up, play nice, and have the best season possible. If he can have a strong, healthy season in the AL East, he'll be looking at a massive payday in a year.
Dave Till - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 09:53 AM EST (#265641) #
If that was the competing offer, AA overpaid by a mile.

That might have been the initial competing offer. But I'm reasonably certain that the Marlins front office was smart enough to initiate a bidding war. The Jays had more prospects - they didn't even have to offer d'Arnaud, Gose, or more than one of the Lansing Big Three - so they won the war.

The bottom line is that the Jays have Reyes and Johnson, and the Red Sox do not.
Ryan Day - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 09:57 AM EST (#265642) #
Apparently the Red Sox were also in negotiations with the Marlins: Reyes and Johnson as a pure salary dump.

I have no doubt the Red Sox negotiated as if it were a salary dump, but according to Peter Gammons the Marlins wanted Doubront, Middlebrooks, and #1 prospect Xander Bogaerts.
Gerry - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 10:21 AM EST (#265643) #

Come on Moe, you can't believe what losers say after they lost.  Boston wanted these guys and they didn't get them.  So what do they say to their fans when they can't pull the trigger?  It is "we didn't really want them" or "we weren't going to pay that much".  As a Jays fan you must recognize that approach. 

Don't pay attention to the losers, they are biased.

92-93 - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 10:43 AM EST (#265644) #
"And the mandatory 92-93 ad hominem attack-machine is launched again...."

Sigh. As if this has anything to do with you and not the absurd comments you made. And at least I come straight out and use your name, instead of hiding behind vagaries when I address people and attack their ideas.
John Northey - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 11:19 AM EST (#265645) #
I think, in the end, you have to ask who among the players the Jays gave up will be missed?

Escobar & Hechavarria: replaced by Reyes for 5 years, meaning neither could've been at SS until year 6 well after Escobar's contract is up and covering Hech's last year before free agency.

Alvarez, Nicolino, DeSclafani: Alvarez will (likely) never be as good as Johnson or Buehrle but we also get just 1 year of Johnson and Buehrle for 3 years vs 5 more of Alvarez. Nicolino & DeSclafani might develop, they might not. Remember the old rule, TINSTAAPP.

Jeff Mathis: replaced by John Buck, an upgrade and, regardless, easily replaced.

Jake Marisnick: this one could hurt, as he was viewed as a top prospect at 2 levels this year. Emilio Bonifacio is a nice utility guy, might even be playing semi-full time in LF or 2B if no one else is acquired.

So basically for it to blow up we'd need 2 of Marisnick, Nicolino, DeSclafani, or Alvarez to become solid ML players plus Hech or Escobar to be solid for the Marlins, or for both Escobar & Hechavarria to play at a level around Reyes' plus one or two of those other 4 to do well. For it to become a super 'woohoo' we'd need to make the playoffs this year.

I see many routes for this to be a steal for the Jays, few for it to be the same for the Marlins. Realistically they need one of Marisnick, Nicolino, DeSclafani, Alvarez to become an all-star at some point plus Hechavarria or Escobar to be at a near All-Star level otherwise it could easily be a failure for them.
Nolan - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 11:24 AM EST (#265646) #
"the Marlins wanted Doubront, Middlebrooks, and #1 prospect Xander Bogaerts."

My only source is BTF, but someone there posted a link saying that this package was what the Sox were offering and the Marlins rejected it.

Don't have time to do some checking on that right now, but either way I think that package is better than the Jay's package.
Ryan Day - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 11:29 AM EST (#265647) #
Escobar & Hechavarria: replaced by Reyes for 5 years, meaning neither could've been at SS until year 6

That assumes Reyes is the full-time shortstop until then, which might not be the case given his health and age.

Still, he's probably good there for at a couple years, giving the Jays some time to find another shortstop. Maybe they can get Hechavarria back in the next Marlins firesale.
John Northey - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 11:34 AM EST (#265648) #
Heck, from the sounds of it online the Marlins are already shopping Escobar as he'd be their 2nd highest paid player next year at $5 million. Sad eh?
92-93 - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 11:45 AM EST (#265649) #

The odds are pretty good that Nicolino or Alvarez or Marisnick will be a valuable major league player in three-four years and decent that one of them is one of the 15-20 most valuable properties in baseball at that point.

While it's hard to quantify what you mean by decent, I think the odds are extremely slim that any of those 3  are one of the top assets in baseball.

I was obviously happy seeing that Nicolino was the pitching prospect they gave up in this deal, as per the discussion on Nicolino during the prospect rankings.

acepinball - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 11:57 AM EST (#265651) #
A lot of my judgement for this deal will be based on what happens next. There are too many catchers. There are still opportunities to improve at LF and 1B. Three (3!) switch hitters creates a ton of options. I've got a feeling Bonifacio will play a lot of 2nd base, some CF (to keep Rasmus away from tough LHP), maybe some LF (as a platoon with Rajai, possibly?).

I see two plausible scenarios rising above the others right now:
A. Buck and Lind are moved in a trade, to lower the payroll by more than $10M. The Jays reallocate part of that to a piece for a LF platoon or 1B.
B. JPA and prospects are dealt for another big bat at 1B or LF (or an ace pitcher?). Thus, Buck starts the season until TDA is ready.

I don't see much in terms of free agents that helps the team out. Perhaps a player with major splits to play one role in a platoon, a decent reliever, or maybe Cesar Izturis to play utility backup (McDonald/Vizquel role) if Bonifacio is viewed as OF only.
adrianveidt - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 12:41 PM EST (#265652) #
The odds are pretty good that Nicolino or Alvarez or Marisnick will be a valuable major league player in three-four years and decent that one of them is one of the 15-20 most valuable properties in baseball at that point.
No, I think it's highly likely that none of the prospects and no prospect at all will ever turn into even a below-average MLB player. I think you always trade a prospect for an average-or-better MLB player.
greenfrog - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 12:49 PM EST (#265653) #
I was obviously happy seeing that Nicolino was the pitching prospect they gave up

Keith Law also pointed out that Nicolino is the one guy that could come back to bite the Jays. Not necessarily in the sense that he becomes a star, but that he could have a productive career as a polished mid-rotation lefty throwing 89-93 with outstanding control, a very good changeup, etc. He said one scout compared him to Cole Hamels (really!). Whereas Johnson and Reyes are decidedly sexier acquisitions, Nicolino has the potential to accumulate a lot of WAR over time. Of course, this is all speculative and Nicolino could prove to be the next Nestor Molina. For the record, Law likes the trade for the Jays and thinks they avoided giving up the cream of the crop in terms of prospects.
Jevant - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 01:22 PM EST (#265654) #

if Texas comes back and offers Profar and Holland for one year of JJ, it would be hard to say no. 

If that were to happen, AA better not say no.

Magpie - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 01:28 PM EST (#265655) #
Buck and Lind are moved in a trade, to lower the payroll by more than $10M.

Unless you have to send money along with them to sweeten the deal. People keep saying trade Adam Lind. But I don't think anyone actually wants Adam Lind - does anyone here? - which makes it a little tricky.
Ryan Day - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 01:42 PM EST (#265656) #
There are probably some teams who would like Adam Lind, but very few who would want to pay $5 million for him. It's hard to see a trade that doesn't involved the Jays paying a big chunk of his salary, or taking back another similarly unpalatable salary, neither of which would free up much payroll for the Jays.
John Northey - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 01:44 PM EST (#265657) #
If Lind is traded it'll be to free up a roster slot, not for money savings as odds are the Jays will either pay cash to go along with him or just release him. 1B who were removed from the 40 man roster in the past season are rarely valued highly.

I suspect Lind will be on the roster until a new 1B (or DH) is found and at that point AA will try to trade him but might just release him instead.
ayjackson - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 01:53 PM EST (#265658) #
"I think you always trade a prospect for an average-or-better MLB player." I couldn't disagree more. Average major leaguers are easy to acquire, stars are not. Prospects with star upside, generally, should not be traded for average major leaguers. That's why a lot of people were upset at the trade of Perez, Comer and Musgrove in July.
John Northey - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 02:12 PM EST (#265659) #
I think it depends on the prospect, what level they are at, and where in the success cycle you are.

If the prospect is at A or lower then you have at least 2 years before you can expect them to be valuable to the ML team. If your team is ready to contend then that player is not of high value to you. Whereas if you are in rebuild mode then that player has a lot of value as you need a stack of prospects to get the handful of core players you'll need for a contender.

The Jays, right now, feel they are at the point where they need to contend. The Red Sox are down, the Rays are starting to get expensive but cannot afford to be, the Yankees are seeing their core getting older and might lose a few core pieces (Rivera, Swisher, Soriano, Kuroda, ...) and the Orioles will most likely drop a bit next year (plexiglass principle). Thus players who won't help in 2013 and might not in 2014 are not of much value right now, at least not to AA who could lose his job if the team is still a 500 team through those years.

Now, you don't give away the farm (ala the Expos in the 2000's) but you also recognize that if 1 out of 3 prospects makes it you are doing an amazing job so trading 3 to get 1 solid ML'er is a good idea right now and if it is a 1 for 1 deal you have to jump at it unless you feel that kid is a potential superstar ala Brett Lawrie.
TamRa - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 02:55 PM EST (#265660) #
two quick thoughts since i have no time:

I'm not worried about Jonson's desire at all. He'll be fine and the stress over the comment is wildly overblown. Buehrle may well not be happy but I'd be totally cool with flipping him. Ship him off to Texas for Kinsler and Ogando, for instance. Easy squeezy.

Second. A lot of commentary says Reyes was "just okay" last year. let's remember that the Jays best hitter, Encarnacion, accounted for 4.4 WAR last hear. Reyes? 4.5

just sayin'


Mike Green - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 03:04 PM EST (#265661) #
Each situation is different.  Reyes, Johnson and Buehrle are not average MLB players.  They are all above-average or better than that.  The prospects are, as John Northey points out, several years away (Nicolino, Marisnick) or thought generally to not have a particularly high upside (Hechavarria).  It's a balancing act, and (to be clear) it is likely that the balance will fall in favour of the trade, anticipating that some other improvements will be made before the end of the off-season. 

It is quite possible that by mid-season, the everyday lineup will include four very young players (Gose, d'Arnaud, Lawrie and Cooper) and four prime-age players (Bautista, Encarnacion, Reyes and Izturis).  It's a nice balance of power, speed, and pure batting skill, and relatively young.  I share in the excitement arising from the trade, even if I haven't gone out and ordered my World Series tickets yet.  

Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 03:39 PM EST (#265662) #

Henderson Alvarez will be a Starter in 2013, probably using a "new" pitch to make him more effective in the N.L.   He could be an effective regular for Miami for a number of years.   He just wasn't that "teachable" last season, which should improve in 2013.   I just can't see Justin Nicolino not Starting for Miami late this coming season or early in the next.   That's generally what "bottom feeding" teams like Miami prefer to do, rushing players.   Anthony Desclafani might be an effective MLB pitcher and Miami should give him the chance in 2-3 years, if he stays effective.

Yunel Escobar will enjoy Miami, and still is a quality SS with a team-friendly contract.   He will be in demand as the SS market is lacking in quality.   Whether he's dealt or not isn't important to us - just interesting.   Adeiny Hechavarria should be a Star there, whether he hits well or not.  He will be highly promoted in that market and should do well.

Jeff Mathis has a very friendly contract.   He's an ideal backup with a young Catcher and he's capable of carrying a team for a time.   His trade gives A.A. options he didn't have before.

Jake Marisnick is a superb athelete, but is he a baseball player?   It's possible, he just needs "the light to turn on" to be an effective MBL player.   I think Miami did very well with their acquisitions - Alvarez, Escobar (if not traded), Hechavarria and Mathis can play now, Nicolino soon, Desclafani and Marisnick in a few years.  All three become top Marlins prospects and very tradable assets.

 

Why is it, that every move and non-move A.A. makes is dissected and disparaged by some posters without appreciating what has happened?   Justification for the "rightness" of a stance is usually accompanied by the flimsiest of support.   Sometime it discusses the future, which is nebulous at it's best.   Let's wait until fact and fiction are more fact and less fiction. 

adrianveidt - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 03:42 PM EST (#265663) #
Henderson Alvarez will be a Starter in 2013, probably using a "new" pitch to make him more effective in the N.L.
You make it sound like his biggest weakness, no strikeout pitch, is as easy a problem to fix as a dead battery. He shouldn't have been in the majors at all the past couple of years. He was disastrously bad. And that will likely continue.
Ryan Day - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 03:51 PM EST (#265664) #
He's pitched 251 innings with a 4.52 ERA. That's hardly "disastrously bad"; it's not great, and you can argue he's likely to get worse, but we're not talking about Jo-Jo Reyes here.
eudaimon - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 04:04 PM EST (#265665) #
Newest thing I read (on rotoworld) indicates that the money coming to the Blue Jays is 8 million, not 4. If I'm right then it essentially means we can subtract a million per year off the salaries of Buehle, Reyes, and Johnson, which makes them a fair bit cheaper.
Dewey - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 04:18 PM EST (#265666) #
Da Box on The Trade:

It’s a balancing act . . .

I see two plausible scenarios . . .

I don't see much . . .

The odds are pretty good that . . .

No, I think it's highly likely that . . .

he could have a productive career . . .

I think it depends on . . .

If that were to happen. . .

That's the thing though . . .

There are probably some teams who would . . .

For the record, Law likes . . .

It is quite possible that . . .

It's possible (though I admit not certain)

Of course, this is all speculative . . .

A couple of things immediately come to mind . . .

Wouldn't be surprised if . . .

I'm sure others will follow with more detailed breakdowns . . .

It's almost silly to break down . . .

I could see [X] being flipped . . .

Hmmmm . . .

makes more sense than you might think . . .

there are still huge questions . . .

Decisions still need to be made . . .

It's been mentioned before by others but . . .

It was always one of those things where I didn't believe it until it happened . . .

Im pretty sure that indeed would be . . .

There's so much to analyze . . .

Relievers are unpredictable . . .

Many things could still go wrong . . .

Well, I did say awhile ago that . . .

found a comment I made recently...

We might be looking at a replay . . .

Always nice to at least see something as potential . . .

I think it most likely is but it's not a certainty . . .

reminds me of an interview I was listening to the other day which made me think there's a decent chance ...

I think the answer to this depends on how you define . . .

So excited right now. . .

Yes this is fun. . .

the analysis, discussion, and discourse here is second to none . . .

Sometime it discusses the future, which is nebulous at its best . . .

I have a hunch that . . .

Again, my word. . .

Hopefully it will be official soon . . .

I would assume quite a bit more.  All things being equal . . .


just sayin'
Alex Obal - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 04:28 PM EST (#265667) #
The official Henderson Alvarez comparison is a young Jon Garland. I doubt he follows Garland's career path, but that's where he is now.
Jimbag - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 04:40 PM EST (#265668) #
Okay, so the Jays get 2 starting pitchers who have proven that they can win at the MLB level, a shortstop that is an upgrade over the 2 traded away, and give away practically nothing off their roster to make it happen. And apparently some people are angry or doubtful about this? Prospects, including high draft picks, seem to be worth more in the minds of the people that have them than they are actually worth. How many prospects is Bautista worth? Some of them might grow up to hit better than him. You never know.. Some magic beans become vines that you can climb to magic kingdoms, others just end up being beans - a can of those goes for about $2 at the grocery store.
TamRa - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 04:59 PM EST (#265669) #
alternately, that money pays for the other bat presumably still needed


alternately still, that money could be used to trade Buck+Cash to, for instance, the Mets if you don't want a $6 million backup.

So forth and so on...


TamRa - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 05:11 PM EST (#265670) #
The odds are pretty good that Nicolino or Alvarez or Marisnick will be a valuable major league player in three-four years and decent that one of them is one of the 15-20 most valuable properties in baseball at that point.

I think, actually, the odds are against even the best prospects as there's so ery much that can go wrong. Beyond that. Nicolino or Marisnick will just be getting started in 3-4 years. So even to start to have the odds favor being a "valuable" player, depending on how you define valuable, you'd be safer to say 5-7 years from now. Unless you thik one of them is mike Trout or some such.

One of the 15-20 most valuable players? Again, unless your prospect is named Trout or harper or Strasburg or some such...you have to be skeptical of saying that about any prospect.

remember when we thought Snider was such a guy? At least he was listed in the top dozen or so prospects at one point - none of these guys have been.

Ryan Day - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 05:14 PM EST (#265671) #
It's funny how quickly the shine can wear off of young platers. Alvarez is 22, throws hard, has great control, but lacks an off-speed pitch, so he's toast.

Meanwhile, we all wait for Aaron Sanchez to turn into a superstar, because of course he's going to fix his control problems, as all young power pitchers do.
Chuck - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 05:22 PM EST (#265672) #
Buehrle may well not be happy but I'd be totally cool with flipping him. Ship him off to Texas for Kinsler and Ogando, for instance. Easy squeezy.

I don't think it's a given that the Rangers would sign Buerhle at 3/48 were he a free agent let alone trade two players of such caliber for the balance of his contract.

Unless you were being sarcastic...
Alex Obal - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 05:26 PM EST (#265673) #
If you wanted to get overly cute, you could offer him to the White Sox for a hitter. Gordon Beckham? Dayan Viciedo? Alejandro de Aza?
hobbes9 - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 05:48 PM EST (#265674) #
All of the talk about "winning" or "losing" in the deal is very premature. Sure, it is upsetting to let go quality minor league talent. At the same time, as TamRa pointed out, it is just that: minor league talent. The number of variables that affect a prospect's future are countless. Would I like to have Nicolino and Marisnick around to see how they, hopefully, develop to their full potential? Would it be good to see Hech figure out how to swing a competent bat? Of course it would.

On the other hand I'll also take the proven, MLB tested Reyes, Johnson, and Buehrle. If all goes according to plan with the prospects we didn't have to give up, and they developed as hoped, I honestly feel as though the Jays will not be hurt too much. They dealt from an incredibly deep farm system and managed to hang on to their top tier guys.

If all goes well for the Marlins they can hope to be where the Jays are in 4-5 years... assuming they don't execute another of their signature fire-sales before then.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 06:10 PM EST (#265675) #

If you assume (as I've proposed earlier) an estimated cap of $120.0 MM, it easier to estimate what A.A. has left to work with.   If Darren Oliver doesn't retire, A.A. has roughly $6.5 MM to spend.   If Darren Oliver does retire, A.A. has roughly $9.0 MM to spend.

If that money coming from Miami is $8.0 MM and not $4.0 MM, things change.   A.A. will have about $10.5 MM or $13.0 MM to spend - that significant.   J.P. Arencibia is a valuable asset in a trade.   Adam Lind has no value.   Colby Rasmus has value, but only for a top CF stud coming back.   J.A. Happ is a valuable asset in a trade, but only for a better Starter coming back.

Unless more magic happens, Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind share 1B and DH; and, Emilio Bonifacio (LF/CF/RF/2B/SS/3B) and Macier Izturis (2B/SS/3B) share 2B and Middle Infielder (Bench).   There is a need for a quality LF and  an opening for another multiposition bench player or conversely a quality 2B. 

raptorsaddict - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 06:20 PM EST (#265676) #
Firstly, I love this trade. I have read all the comments, and acknowledge all the potential issues and concerns. But I don't care. Baseball is like life - everything comes with a risk. And in this instance, I'm quite ok with the risks that have been taken.

Secondly, has anyone else heard Bud Selig say he has "concerns" about the trade? That really ticks me off - if the Marlins want to unload all their salaries, who cares if they do it all at once or piecemeal? At the end of the day, Reyes, Buehrle, Johnson et. al. are not, under any circumstances, going to be Marlins in 2013. If the commish #$@!'s this up for us, I am going to lose it!

John Northey - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 06:20 PM EST (#265677) #
Would you trade all of a team's top 10 prospects for some talent? Lets see...
Using Batter's Box top 10 and career WAR so far...
Jays 2004: Hill (21.4), Josh Banks (-0.9), League (2.6), Francisco Rosario (-0.4), Marcum (13.3), Chacin (3.7), McGowan (0.8), Jamie Vermilyea (0), John Hattig (0.3), David Purcey (-0.9)

So, 2 guys with over 4 WAR in the 8 years since that list was made. Hill cracked 4 three times, Marcum hasn't. 2 more over 1. Reyes has 4 years over 4 WAR on his own. 8 over 1. Buehrle has cracked 4 six times. Johnson twice.

Think about that - we have 10 guys, two became solid ML players, one getting to the All-Star game but just 3 seasons that come close to a 'wow, maybe MVP' level. And back in 2004 the system wasn't viewed as a total wasteland either. Pre-season 2004 the Jays were ranked #8, 2005 #15. Yet if you traded all 10 for this type of quality it could've been worth it.

Prospects are fun, we all love to watch them grow and dream of one of them being the next A-Rod or a surprise like Phil Neikro was. But most will be a Josh Banks, Dustin McGowan, or if they are lucky a Gustavo Chacin. Few get to Aaron Hill or Shaun Marcum level let along the level Reyes, Johnson, and Buhrle have been at.
China fan - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 06:45 PM EST (#265678) #
John, a slight correction: 3 of the top 10 prospects in 2004 became solid major-leaguers, since you have to include Brandon League too. But your overall point is exactly right: even in a good year, less than a third of the top prospects became solid major-leaguers. So, of the three top prospects who were traded (Hechavarria, Marisnick, Nicolino), the odds are that only one of them becomes a solid major-league player.
lexomatic - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 06:49 PM EST (#265679) #
I still think Melky is the way to go for LF, depending on how much he wants. If he has multi-year offers, or over 8 mil. Let him walk.
If you can get him for 1@8 or less I do it.
I've seen rumours about JPA for Ike Davis. I'd do this in a second. He had Valley Fever, and had a really slow start because of it. He also had a MUCH lower babip then expected. He's not going to hit for average, but he hit 30 HRs in CitiField. He can do better than Lind. He's  a decent fielder, and cheaper too. I'd just cut Lind, eat the $$. Keep Gose and TDA at AAA for half season (probably full for Gose, unless things don't go well and I'm trading Melky).

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/ike-davis-a-tale-of-two-seasons/
I don't see anyone at 2b that is really an improvement, without making another major move. The lineup would be monstrous. I don't know how realistic any of it is.

raptorsaddict - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 07:09 PM EST (#265680) #
"I still think Melky is the way to go for LF"

Of all the LF options out there, he is amongst the better ones on talent and "upside" alone, plus he won't clog up LF for a long time, which I think is always nice to have in case you have an all-bat, no-glove hitter you want to get into the lineup on a regular basis. Just as long as that bat and glove don't belong to Eric Thames.
Landomar - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 07:12 PM EST (#265681) #

Melky Cabrera and Ike Davis would both be excellent additions.  Arencibia+ for Ike Davis works for me, depending on who the other guys we give up would be.  Maybe they'd like to take David Cooper to be their first baseman, and I think that he would do well in the NL.

Reyes, Cabrera, Bautista, Encarnacion, I.Davis, Lawrie, Rasmus, Buck, Izturis.  Wilson, Bonifacio, R.Davis, and some 4th guy on the bench.  D'Arnaud arrives during the season to provide some fun young guy heroics at catcher.  Now that's a playoff lineup.    

 

raptorsaddict - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 07:36 PM EST (#265682) #
The author of the Fangraphs article on Ike, in the comments, linked to his own website where he had an article on potential returns the Mets might expect. The Jays weren't mentioned, but the potential returns suggested both in the article and the comments make me think that perhaps a JPA challenge trade could get the job done. That said, I would also go JPA + no minor leaguers of note to get it done.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/should-mets-trade-ike-davis-and-or-lucas-duda/#comment-3689973

grjas - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 08:21 PM EST (#265683) #
Lots of good analysis as usual on the pros and cons of this deal. Think we have undersold the intangibles.

This was a team sitting in a foreign country, with a crappy field, cheap ownership, non-stop injury issues, a 20 year drought and managers and coaches streaming out the door by the handful.

If this wasn't demoralizing for the players and potential managers and FA's sniffing the team.....then may be ballplayers are the video game cutouts that we too often describe solely by UZR's, OPS, OBP's or whatever other flavour of the month measures the league statisticians throw at us.

In one mega transaction, this team has got it's mojo back and has gone from a backwater has-been to the talk of the league. Hopefully this helps land a talented manager, and spark some FA interest. But if even if it doesn't its changed the whole mood of this franchise and it's players...emotional people like us who work better when the confidence and swagger returns.

And for god sake. Please, no more posts about how managers are irrelevant bullpen jockeys. These aren't robots manning the bags; they're largely young immature adults who produce better when inspired. Hopefully we can find the right guy to lead them.

scottt - Thursday, November 15 2012 @ 08:37 PM EST (#265684) #
It doesn't matter how the departed prospects turn out.

The trade hangs on the new guys staying healthy.

It's a bit sad to trade for guys that could have been signed as free agents, but that would have cost a couple of picks aynyway.

Assuming players do not want to play in Toronto, would they not totally go for huge front loaded deals with no no-trade options, hoping they would not remain there long?

It seems like Texas needs a catcher, but their players don't seem to like the turf.

It should be good enough to compete until the trade deadline.

Ryan C - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 01:47 AM EST (#265686) #
One thing is for sure about this trade, I have never seen so many "baseball" articles about how much taxes are paid by millionaires.
JB21 - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 09:33 AM EST (#265689) #
One thing is for sure about this trade, people are talking about the BlueJays / Baseball in mid-November. People that don't watch baseball.
 
Maybe I'm wrong... but it's certainly been a while since a thread had 240 posts.
Ryan Day - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 09:37 AM EST (#265690) #
The Jays just gave themselves the best PR boost they've seen in years, since at least the big Free Agent splurge in 2006. I don't know how likely they are to follow that up by signing a guy who got suspended for PEDs.

(Remember when people thought signing post-suspension Manny Ramirez was a good idea?)
Mike Green - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 10:04 AM EST (#265691) #
Why not?  Rob Ford can throw out the first pitch of the 2013 season too.

Once the deal is approved (assuming that it is), the managerial job becomes a more attractive proposition for candidates.  I am sure someone has made this point before, but the unexplained delay in hiring a manager is now explained.  I would hope that the process moves forward quickly next week. 

John Northey - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 10:29 AM EST (#265693) #
JB21 - good question about 200+ posts... Phew. Took awhile to reach a big one. Clearly we need big trades, guys leaving, or the draft to get people really excited around here.
Subversive - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 10:46 AM EST (#265694) #
There's a lot of talk about how players don't want to play on turf, and I can't say I really blame them. Can anyone explain to me why they don't put real grass (or that fake stuff that's easier on the knees than 'turf') into the Skydome? Seems like it would be a minor expense in the grand scheme of things, and better for all involved.
Shaker - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 10:49 AM EST (#265695) #
Very exciting and unexpected trade, as has been posted about 244 times.  A real Blogbuster...

My question is: when did Buerhle become a #2 starter in Bauxites' eyes?  When he wasn't a Jay (last off-season) wasn't he viewed by most as an aging #3/4 type?

I love Buerhle and see him as an awesome #3, but did everyone's opinion of him change once he joined our club?

greenfrog - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 11:09 AM EST (#265697) #
Anyone else curious to see whether other moves are announced once Selig approves this deal? I'm sure on the buy side, AA wants another quality SP and a bat (LF/DH/1B). On the sell side, he probably wouldn't mind jettisoning Buck, Lind and/or Arencibia (and maybe Rasmus). And, of course, the team needs a manager and coaching staff.
JB21 - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 11:10 AM EST (#265698) #

I still see him as a 3/4 behind JJ and Morrow. Rickey is obviously the X factor but regardless with Happ/Francis/Whoever I'm happy that we have a shot to win each and every night out there.

I'm getting a little (a lot) ahead of myself now but with the season opening at home vs. the Indians and then vs. the Sox on the 1st weekend what do you all see the rotation looking like? I'd obviously love to see JJ starting the Opener, and then Morrow the second. But to take the pressure off Ricky a bit and to possibly have him start out against the Indians instead of the Sox (who he's had some troubles against) I'd look at starting Ricky on Thursday and then bringing Buehlre out to start on the Friday Night.

That Friday night is goign to be PACKED and will probably have a Home Opener feel to it. With JF coming back and all. I can't wait to hear the crowd's reaction.

John Northey - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 11:10 AM EST (#265699) #
Depends on ones definition of a #1/#2... starter.

In the 5 playoff years here the ERA+ ranks for guys with 10+ starts. 1985-1989-1991-1992-1993
#1: 171-119-142-154-112
#2: 141-109-142-115-109
#3: 123-95-139-101-106
#4: 112-95-114-91-98
#5: 74-93-112-81-90

So twice our #2 in a playoff year was 'wow' with a 140+ ERA+, out #3 in just those two same years was wow with a 110+ ERA+. #5 just once was over 95 for ERA+ out of 5 seasons.

Bit surprised at how strong the 1991 staff was, and how small the spread was in 1993 from #1 to #5 (22 points or less than the spread from #1 to #2 in 1992 & 1985).

Buehrle is a 119 lifetime ERA+ guy, 9 times over 120 vs 4 times below it. Sadly, 2 of those 4 times were in the past 3 years. Lifetime he is an easy #2 guy for a playoff team. However, the past 3 years suggest he might be a #3 or even #4 guy now. Still, 12 straight years of 200+ IP is extremely valuable on a team where no one reached 190 and just 2 guys cracked 130 last year.
joeblow - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 11:52 AM EST (#265700) #
Great post John. That puts in perspective what the rotation needs to achieve for success. There are 4 guys with a good chance of being at least 100-110 ERA+. Morrow and Johnson have the ability to surpass 120. As a fifth starter, Happ with a career ERA+ of 97 looks pretty good. Ricky is a wildcard at this point. For depth, they probably would like another guy who can be 80+.

If you look at top 5 starter ERA+ from some AL teams last year:
Toronto: 144-94-93-92-88
Texas: 138-133-116-97-89
Detroit: 160-122-113-106-92
Oakland: 130-123-116-114-106
Tampa: 149-123-108-100-95
NYY: 146-126-124-99-83
CWS: 142-129-115-101-81
LAA: 134-107-99-87-73
Baltimore: 144-130-123-105-77

When you put names to the numbers for the Jays starters, you can see how bad it would have been without this trade.
Morrow-Laffey-Hutchinson-Drabek-Alvarez
Ricky was 6th with 74.
bpoz - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 12:02 PM EST (#265701) #
I liked Dewey's post about the phrases. I saw potential to join phrases above Hmmmm to phrases below to make a statement and then continue on to making your point. That would need a less crowded post and in Jan when things are slower.

Our poll says 85% approve 2% do not. Giving up prospects is always scary to me. Until T Snider taking so long to bloom. Thanks John N, I actually thought the same thing to look at past prospects lists for big successes. I would look at everyone not just the top 10.

Top 20 baseball players is really a tall order. If you look at 1st half & 2nd half of decades say 1990 -2010 then Griffey Jr for example would make the list multiple times.

I think Boston made a good offer. Dubront is a ML pitcher, Middlebrook is proven but SSS and X Bogaerts at 20 yrs old looks incredible. They should have thrown in Iglesias to really compete. They cannot afford more failure.

This trade is unusual for the Jays.Spend a ton of $ & take on a 5 year long expensive contract. So the Jays proved that they have _alls.
Boston doing this would not prove to me that they have _alls. That is their MO. But not now doing something dumb as a reaction would impress me about their guts.

IMO the Jays are very serious about winning in 2013, so they will do what ever it takes to achieve that. This team is so much better now than at the end of the season. JJ is the best addition as he is an Ace. I do not know where J Reyes ranks among current SS in the league. But he is still very good. If JJ leaves as a FA then this rotation is definitely very much weaker. So 2013 is the year to step on the gas.

If this trade is nullified then Jay's reputation among their fans still is a big positive impact as they showed a willingness to spend $.
If the Jay's flip the star players for prospects then the overall system could have been made stronger. That is a positive, a win if you will, but the Fans will not be happy. Unless the new team starts winning also. Successful results are better than potential success that does not happen.

Lylemcr - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 12:29 PM EST (#265702) #

There are many people that posted "Why don't the Jays just use the money to sign the free agents last year?"

This is based on the assumption that players want to play in Toronto.  Players want to goto a winner and there are issues with Toronto (Taxes, it is cold and it is another country!).  Thus the only way the Jays could ever get a a player like Reyes is to trade for him.

This tells the baseball world, the Jays are back to contending!  Free agents, please apply.

 

hypobole - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 01:11 PM EST (#265703) #
"Players want to goto a winner and there are issues with Toronto (Taxes, it is cold and it is another country!)"

Replace "it is cold" with "play on turf". Playing in the summer in Toronto is much better than the heat of Texas or the chill of the Bay Area. Spring/fall in Detroit, Milwaukee, Minnesota causes far more uncomfortable playing conditions than in our Dome. Players leave the city for their offseason homes before it gets uncomfortably cold here anyway.

We've discussed this on numerous occasions, but as long as we have turf (and to answer Subversive's question about replacing it, I believe drainage is the huge issue - with present day solutions very expensive) FA position players will look at Toronto as a last resort, especially older guys or players with past injury issues.
Ryan Day - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 01:47 PM EST (#265705) #
I'm not sure that players don't want to come to Toronto; rather, not many players actively want to come to Toronto.

There are usually a few reasons why players sign with teams.
- Money. The Jays aren't loaded like the Yankees or Red Sox. They aren't going to outbid other teams on a regular basis.
- History. Lots of players grow up idolizing the Yankees or Sox or Dodgers or Giants, because they've been around so long. Playing for a legendary franchise is like a dream come true.
- Home. Warmer climates are more likely to produce baseball players, so plenty of players call California, Florida, or Texas home. Toronto probably isn't convenient or comfortable for a lot of players. (Even a Canadian like Lawrie might feel more "at home" in California than Ontario.)

The idea of Canada being a different country or climate might be a problem for some players, but most players - everyone in the American League - have played here. They know there's no snow in July, and even going through customs can't be such a big deal at that level.
Sal - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 02:05 PM EST (#265706) #
The jays have signed Melky Cabrera to a 2year/$16M deal.
Mike Forbes - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 02:08 PM EST (#265707) #
Rogers Communication left their online banking open at Rogers Centre, I see. Is it opening day yet?
whiterasta80 - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 02:08 PM EST (#265708) #
Came on here expecting to hear some Melky talk. What's the deal?

I laughed at the Melky suggestion yesterday and now he's our starting LF (and I'm assuming #2 hitter?).

Wow, we seem to have skipped the month of November and went straight to Christmas.
Noah - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 02:11 PM EST (#265709) #
What an incredible week to be a Jays fan. Is it April yet?
joeblow - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 02:13 PM EST (#265710) #
Wow. Let's hope he stayed "in shape" during his layoff. He must be getting tested every couple weeks.
Ryan Day - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 02:15 PM EST (#265712) #
Well, I guess that proves me wrong. Doesn't usually happen that quickly.

This will be interesting. How much of his great 2012 was PEDs, how much was a career year, and how much was just natural improvement?

Of course, there's the big sword hanging over his head: If he gets caught again, he's suspended for 100 games.
greenfrog - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 02:22 PM EST (#265715) #
My hunch (11:09 a.m. post) seems to have had something to it.

Hopefully there is some provision in the deal re future positive test results. I don't want the Jays paying Cabrera to serve out another suspension.
joeblow - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 02:31 PM EST (#265723) #
Suspended players don't get paid I believe.
acepinball - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 04:01 PM EST (#265751) #
Way to go Lexomatic to not only predict the player, but the $ figure as well. Only one demerit for thinking it was a 1 year deal.
Shaker - Friday, November 16 2012 @ 06:18 PM EST (#265777) #
Alex O,

Here's a theory as to what's going on:

AA told the brass (back when he was hired) that he would gut payroll for 3 seasons and save the club ~$75M over that time frame.  The owners though would have to re-inject that $75M over the 3 seasons after that, as well as boost the payroll from the $80M level (from 2009) at the mlb inflation rate (of ~7%) each season.

Schoenfield at espn provided these Blue Jay salaries (and mlb rank in brackets):

2012: $75.5 million (23rd)
2011: $62.6 million (23rd)
2010: $62.2 million (22nd)
2009: $80.5 million (16th)
2008: $97.8 million (13th)
2007: $81.9 million (16th)

If the Jays payroll was $80M in 2009 and due to rise 7% a year (via inflation), you'd be at $105M in 2013.  It appears that AA did in fact save ~$75 from 2010-2012 (subtract the Jays actual payroll from the inflation adjusted payroll), so that allows him to add $25M each season in 2013-2015.  So the previous 2013 target of $105M goes to $130M.  In 2014 he can spend $137M if this theory is correct, and in 2015 he'd be at ~$145M.  [For the accountants on this blog, the 7% inflation excludes the $25M annual boost from 2013-2015.]

In fact, this is pretty much as Alex said all along.

TamRa - Saturday, November 17 2012 @ 04:29 AM EST (#265796) #
My question is: when did Buerhle become a #2 starter in Bauxites' eyes?  When he wasn't a Jay (last off-season) wasn't he viewed by most as an aging #3/4 type?

For me, he's clearly the third best starter in our rotation, BUT...

My guess is the Jays will consider these points:

1. The will want to respect Buhrlie's relative age and experience, particularly if you are trying to make him happy in a place he wouldn't have signed willingly

2. The will want to de-pressurize Romero as much as possible

3. they will not want Buhrlie and romero pitching back to back (and that made worse if Happ is the #5)

for these reasons, i would predict that they will decide that the relative abilities of morrow and Buhrlie are not so greatly different as to trump the idea that it makes sense to slot Morrow in between the two lefties.

But no, to be clear, i don't remotely think Morrow is a lesser pitcher, on talent, than Buhrlie is right now.

bpoz - Saturday, November 17 2012 @ 10:58 AM EST (#265802) #
Eventually they will have a press conference. It will be interesting what will be said then. As well J Blair & B MacGowan will probably have AA/Beeston on their shows.

While they may not reveal everything or even much, I feel that Beeston learned a lot from the powerhouse we once had & AA could be a genius & is from Montreal which has more than their share of winners. IMO he knows what a powerhouse looks like.
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