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The trade is now official. The Jays received RA Dickey, Josh Thole and journeyman Canadian catcher Mike Nickeas in exchange for Travis d'Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck and Wuilmer Becerra. We have a poll up and running on the left. But the poll is anonymous. It's time to go on the record.

So record your opinion below. There is no need for debate, an approve or disapprove will be fine. At the end of the season when either the Jays are in the playoffs, or when the Jays miss the playoffs and Travis d'Arnaud is rookie of the year, we can look back and double check your opinion at the time the deal was made.
For The Record - Dickey Deal - Yeah or Nay | 83 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Nick Holmes - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 08:20 PM EST (#267063) #
Hell Yeah!
whiterasta80 - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 08:25 PM EST (#267064) #
In favour, its the cost of doing business. The extension is really what seals it-especially the option year.

I also will go on record as saying that JPA has a better career than D'Arnaud.
Mike Green - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 08:26 PM EST (#267065) #
My gut tells me that in 15 years, this trade will be looked at as a disaster for the club (although it will be understood in the context of the Marlins trade).  Objectively, though, it's just a routine thumbs down. 
budgell - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 08:31 PM EST (#267067) #
No one has a bigger prospect fetish than me (hell that's all we've had to cheer for, for too long) but with the moves we've already made and the rare opportunity re AL East competitive balance I'm all for it.
Named For Hank - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 08:33 PM EST (#267068) #
Mike Green, the Blue Jays just signed a unicorn. Why do you hate unicorns and magic?!

I vote YEA!

CeeBee - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 08:33 PM EST (#267069) #
Ask me in four years but for now a smallish yeah.
MatO - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 08:37 PM EST (#267071) #
I love my prospects (pardon the pun) but yes.  Hey Mike Green does this mean you like d'Arnaud better than Jacob Anderson now? ;-)
budgell - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 08:42 PM EST (#267073) #
No one has a bigger prospect fetish than me (hell that's all we've had to cheer for, for too long) but with the moves we've already made and the rare opportunity re AL East competitive balance I'm all for it.
Gerry - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 08:46 PM EST (#267074) #
I understand why the Jays did it but I think they overpaid. I say nay.
Jdog - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 08:48 PM EST (#267075) #
I will give it a yeah. I have always felt d'Arnaud was overhyped, now he is highly rated more on his high floor than anything else, which is valuable in that you can have a decent catcher under control for years but he isn't going to be a difference maker in my book, Syndergaard on the other hand has the chance to make this trade really sting. I have been hoping they would cash d'Arnaud in for a while his injury history as a catcher is worrisome and i just dont see a Posey/Santana/Weiters type upside.
robertdudek - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 08:50 PM EST (#267076) #
Too high a price to pay, even though I think Dickey will pitch relatively well.
electric carrot - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 08:53 PM EST (#267077) #
Good day to be a Jay fan!  Thumbs up!  I wish they could have avoided Snydergaard somehow and I am concerned about losing Becerra too.  I'm happy though about Thole and think he may surprise.  And I'm glad they could hold on to Gose but all things being equal I may have preferred losing him instead of Snydergaard and Becerra.  d'Arnaud is tough to lose too but he was clearly mandatory in this deal. I got a feeling that RA Dickey will be my favourite Jay for the next few years and can't wait to see those knucklers twist Jeter and co. into pretzels.     
Dewey - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 08:54 PM EST (#267078) #
d’Arnaud and Syndergaard have been good on (minor league) paper; Dickey has been excellent on a major league field.  I like the trade.  A lot.

(Da Box should get working on a new banner soon.  Ol’ Rickey just doesn’t do it any more, does he?)
Nick - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 09:27 PM EST (#267080) #

I emphatically approve. 20 years since Joe Carter touched 'em all. I have bitterly complained about the cheapness of the ownership and the poor management for years. Now ownership has stepped up with an infusion of cash and management has moved boldly to go for it at a perceived moment of relative weakness for NY and Boston. For the first time in forever, the Jays are bona fide playoff and WS contenders. I am starved for a winner. I want to talk about how the playoff rotation sets up, not another top 30 prospect list.

I think Dickey has been largely underrated in this debate while d'Arnaud has been overrated. We just acquired the NL Cy Young Winner for crying out loud! Rany Jazayerli lays it out beautifully in Grantland - this guy is really, really good. While many seem conflicted, I think it's an easy yes on this trade. We'll see who's right this October.

My only complaint right now is that it appears we have to endure another season of Adam Lind.

blu-j - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 09:27 PM EST (#267081) #
If you're gonna go all-in, then go all-in.

It's been 20 years, since we've tasted postseason baseball....20 years!!!  Sure, there's potential that the Jays will rue the day, but all I know in this moment is I've got more reality-based hope and excitement for the upcoming season than I have had in....20 years.

Count me as "pro deal".

Lylemcr - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 09:28 PM EST (#267082) #

The time is now.  Bautista is not getting any younger. It is time for Baseball to come back to Toronto. 

I also like how we have a mix of two power right handers, two lefties and a knuckballer.  Teams are going to hate facing them.  Thier timing is going to be so messed up after.

Dave Till - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 09:28 PM EST (#267083) #
I'd say yes, just because if you're going to try to win now, you might as well go all the way. Besides, some of us aren't getting any younger :-)

Four thoughts about R. A. D.:

- If the Jays hadn't traded for him, the Yankees or the Red Sox probably would have. He wasn't going to stay put.
- The last time that the Jays traded for a front-line Mets starter, they won the World Series.
- If the Mets send d'Arnaud down to AAA, he'll be going back to Las Vegas. He can show his new teammates how to live cheaply in Sin City on a minor leaguer's salary. That's always useful.
- Knuckleballers are fun to watch. Which way is the pitch going to go? Whoosh. Nope, it went the other way.

uglyone - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 09:29 PM EST (#267084) #
Big YEAH from me.

Dickey is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and likely will be for most of his next few years.

The chances of D'Arnaud or Syndergaard ever becoming that kind of player are slim.

Dickey was also a much needed upgrade to take this roster from "good team" to "legit contender", and one for at least the next 3 years. (IMO, they still need an upgrade at 1B to be considered one of the "favorites", though). and the Jays are left with plenty of prospect depth anyways.

In particular I think this might be a great time to sell high on TDA - no matter which way I slice his minor league numbers, I can't make them add up to a star MLBer to go along with his current reputation. He's a safe prospect, but not a huge upside one IMO. Syndergaard I'm a bit higher on - legit top-end potential here, though at his age and stage there's a ton of risk there.

Rich package, but you just don't get one of the best players in baseball for anything less.
greenfrog - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 09:32 PM EST (#267086) #
My gut tells me the Jays (1) are getting ahead of themselves with this trade (forcing the issue more than in the mid-1980s and early 90s) and (2) that they overpaid. In other words, the organization is gambling a bit more than I'd like. I had envisioned a flourishing farm system providing a steady stream of talent to a strong and well-financed major-league roster, year in, year out -- not an organization emptying half its farm system to go for broke after a 77-win season.

On the other hand, I trust AA and his front office team to make mostly good decisions. I understand the logic of the trade. My head tells me that the overall contract (3/$30M plus a team option) is very good value. The Jays didn't just trade for a year of Dickey -- they traded for a potentially frontline starter at outstanding value. Dickey was damn good last year. And sometimes things aren't as they appear on the surface (Brett Wallace versus Anthony Gose). In actuality, d'Arnaud and Syndergaard might not be as good as the hype.

For example, one talent evaluator quoted in the NY Post said of d'Arnaud, “I liked him, but he was third in the Eastern League on my list as far as catchers. He’s defensively solid and he’s got some power, but to be honest I wasn’t overly impressed with the guy.”

Similarly, Marc Hulet was a bit underwhelmed by d'Arnaud as well. And several observers have mentioned Syndergaard's difficulties in developing a breaking ball.

Mostly, my head and heart tell me that I have no idea what to expect. There is a wide range of outcomes for everyone involved, from d'Arnaud and Syndergaard and Becerra to Dickey.

I will say yea, but only cautiously, and only because I trust in AA.
JB21 - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 09:37 PM EST (#267088) #
New banner, with new unis, and maybe the new Logo on the side bar? How can I help? This needs to get done...

Oh, and I approve. Nobody has any idea how these prospects will actually turn out, but we do know that we just added the Cy Young to our pitching staff. Somehow AA added THREE 200 inning pitchers to the MLB team this off-season.

Is Buffalo already looking for another AAA parent organization?

Sidenote: when you look at the dollar figures of these contracts being handed out these days take some time and have a look at Joey, Edwin, Dickey, and Morrow's contracts.
Alex Obal - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 09:45 PM EST (#267090) #
No-brainer trade for both sides.
rpriske - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 09:55 PM EST (#267091) #
Absolutely yay!
Subversive - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 10:08 PM EST (#267092) #
eudaimon - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 10:16 PM EST (#267094) #
Approve. Great value trade. Getting the Cy Young winner is worth the risk (which I tend to think is less that people make it out to be). Prospects can always fail (someone posted a good article about this in the other thread) and so can RAD but I think this is a great time to take a chance and go for gold.
John Northey - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 10:23 PM EST (#267095) #
Very much a 'yes' to this deal even though I also hate to lose prospects.  The big fear for me is the unknown one - Wuilmer Becerra.  Mainly that is due to being around when Gillick pulled off a major steal getting Fred McGriff as a teenage throw in (dealt a pair of relievers to the Yankees for Dave Collins [team MVP in 84] and someone else plus McGriff)..  Still, odds are Becerra will be forgotten and one of d'Arnaud and Syndergaard will be no more than a footnote in the majors thus making it a very good trade in the end.

What I also love is that AA suggested there are more prospects that are tradeable thus an upgrade at DH/1B might be possible still (replacing Lind that is).

Glevin - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 10:28 PM EST (#267096) #
Approve. Prospects are almost always fetishized but the vast majority of them fail. (Jays top prospects according to BA over the past 10 years, Drabek, Stewart Snider, Lind, McGowen, League, Rios, Phelps).

Yes, there is a chance that this trade will look bad, but Dickey is one of the best pitchers in baseball and to get that is huge, especially for such an affordable contract. The Jays have given themselves a window of a few years to compete but the system is hardly bare and the Jays will get another excellent prospect (hopefully a hitter) at#10 in the draft this year.
grjas - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 10:31 PM EST (#267097) #
Yeah i have come around. It was an overpay on talent and an underpay on dollars. Rogers wallet can only be stretched so far, so best way to get pitching depth they need for next year and beyond. TDA is also an unknown. Some injury issues and a Vegas line little better than JPA. Worth the risk
Landomar - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 10:50 PM EST (#267100) #

I'm excited to get Dickey, so I guess I'll vote Yay.  The Mets ended up with an excellent package for him, but Dickey has a good chance to be worth it.  On the free agent market, the price for great starting pitching is through the roof, and to get a guy like Dickey at team friendly dollars has a lot of value.

earlweaverfan - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 10:54 PM EST (#267101) #
Thumbs up.  I am strongly concerned that Romero will not bounce back nearly enough, and so I would still not be surprised to see Happ play as our #5 in the rotation at some point in the season.  Even crossing my fingers to keep everyone healthy, I still feel that we needed to strengthen our rotation.  If Ricky proves me wrong, and everyone stays healthy, Happ will be a strong BP contributor.

Meanwhile, if we can get a full season of 200+ inninings out of Johnson, Buehrle, Dickey, and Morrow, then we will put a lot less pressure on the bullpen.  It becomes a virtuous circle.

I also really like the mix of starboard and port sides, the mix of speeds, the mix of pitch types from one through five.

Most of all, my hopes (not necessarily my expectations) for retaining Oliver and extending Johnson have risen, given what kind of team they would be signing up for.

jerjapan - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 11:07 PM EST (#267105) #
Big, big thumbs up.  I haven't felt we were the favorite going into a season since 1994.  That's a looong wait. 
Lylemcr - Monday, December 17 2012 @ 11:14 PM EST (#267108) #

Did you expect the Mets to get nothing for the reigning Cy Young winner?  Sure it was too much.  The Mets did well.  I still approve.  It is going to be quite the pitching staff.

China fan - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 03:11 AM EST (#267126) #
I heartily approve of this trade. For all the reasons that I gave in other threads, and for all the reasons that others mentioned above in this thread. But here's another reason: the Jays owe it to their players. They owe it to players like Bautista and Encarnacion, who took a discount to stay with this team. (Anthopoulos probably gave an explicit promise to Bautista in 2011 that the Jays would be making some major upgrades so that Bautista would have a good chance at the playoffs during the length of his contract.) They owe it to rising young stars like Lawrie, who want to believe in this team. And they owe it to the rest of the team, who were disappointed and demoralized in late July 2012 when the Jays failed to acquire anyone beyond Happ and a few relievers. And another reason: by surrounding the existing core with great players like Dickey, the Jays will bring out the best in their team. No more excuses or apathy or demoralization. There's nothing like the whiff of the playoffs to bring out the best in a team, and now we'll see what the Jays are made of.
brent - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 03:22 AM EST (#267127) #
Better to overpay in the winter than at the deadline later. Beccara is still far away. Pitching needed the most help anyways. Yay.
Jonny German - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 04:38 AM EST (#267129) #
Approve. The off-field factors push it over the top, this trade sends a message to the fans and to the league.

An aspect that hasn't been discussed much is John Buck and his $6M salary. That's not nothing.
Mike Green - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 08:55 AM EST (#267136) #
Hey Mike Green does this mean you like d'Arnaud better than Jacob Anderson now? ;-)

Oh no.  But I do like d'Arnaud more than Joel Collins. :)

Beyonder - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 10:18 AM EST (#267148) #
A risky offseason strategy. In two months we have switched from the Tampa Bay model of team building to a model more similar in many ways to Boston and New York. Not sure I love the strategy, but I see why they had to go there.

In the context of this strategy, and on the heels of the Florida deal which left us somewhat pot-committed, I'm in favour of the Dickey deal.
Matthew E - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 10:29 AM EST (#267149) #
If you want to know why Anthopoulos shifted into overdrive this off-season, I think you can sum it up in two words:

Jose Bautista.

A guy like Bautista doesn't come along very often, and when he does, you want to make use of him. Who knows how many good years he has left in him? Anthopoulos had to surround him with championship-quality players while he had the chance.

It's a shame that Ash and Ricciardi couldn't do the same for Delgado and Halladay.

uglyone - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 10:33 AM EST (#267152) #
J.P. did, but he only went some-in, instead of all-in.

Matthew E - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 10:37 AM EST (#267156) #
Anyway, it didn't work when Ricciardi tried it, is my point. Not sure he would have had the prospects to get it done anyway, which of course is partly on him.
Brian W - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 10:49 AM EST (#267159) #
I think we probably did overpay, but I completely understand and agree with the reasoning. If we've decided to push hard for a playoff run this season (and it's obvious the Jays are) then it's critical to keep pushing. No sense building a team that is just good enough to be close.
China fan - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 11:40 AM EST (#267174) #
"....If we've decided to push hard for a playoff run this season (and it's obvious the Jays are) then it's critical to keep pushing...."

But don't forget that Anthopoulos is pushing for a playoff run next season too, and the season after. He made that clear in his comments to the media last night. He said: "’s not just about one season. This allows us to really put what we feel is a contending team together for an extended run, for a three-to-five year period."

That might seem like an exaggeration, but consider this: Josh Johnson is the only key player who might vanish at the end of 2013. Every other key player is controllable to some extent (although arguably the Jays might not want to keep paying Buehrle in 2014 and beyond when his salary soars). If the Jays can find a way to extend Johnson, or replace him by acquiring another top pitcher, they don't face any significant decline in their performance in 2014. So it could be true -- the Jays could be making a run at the playoffs for the next several years. It's not a David Cone situation where they're going "all in" for a single season. When they gave up Syndergaard and d'Arnaud, it's not necessarily a sacrifice for a single season of contention.
Nick Holmes - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 12:09 PM EST (#267182) #
I'm with Matt E on this: Bautista is the key.
Chuck - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 12:21 PM EST (#267185) #
I don't live and die with the Blue Jays (those feelings of attachment were reserved entirely for the Montreal Expos, the team of my youth), but I do watch them more than I do any other team. As such, my preference is to be entertained. If that means more money out of Rogers' coffers, I don't care. If that means rolling the dice and cutting bait on a prospect (with potential ramifications to be felt years down the road), I don't care. I want to be entertained. Now. The product on the field the past two decades has sometimes been very entertaining but too often a great deal less so. As Jays' viewers (and the great majority here, devout Jays' fans), we are owed some entertainment. We are owed more than the right to simply fetishize prospects (the empty promise of what could be grows tiresome).

The major league team has positioned itself to be competitive and entertaining. Things could certainly go sideways, that's just the nature of professional sports. But the ingredients are in place for the potential of an entertaining summer.

Bring it on.
greenfrog - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 12:25 PM EST (#267186) #
Langston Hughes speculated that a dream deferred dries up like a raisin in the sun, but perhaps, just perhaps, John Farrell is wishing he'd deferred his dream for, oh, another year or three.
Powder Blues - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 01:11 PM EST (#267191) #
I am for this trade for one reason:

The two banners hanging quietly in the Skydome send shivers down my spine, and, at 8 years old in 1993, those moments cemented my love for baseball for a lifetime to come. Ok, Blue Jays, Let's Play Ball!
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 01:50 PM EST (#267201) #
J.P. Ricciardi's biggest mistake was the College-picks only draft policy.   Just drafting 5 HS picks each year, could have made the 2007 run successful.
hypobole - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 01:50 PM EST (#267202) #
I'm all for this deal. In a vacuum, it seems to be a large overpay. Yet for a team on the cusp of contention with a maxed out budget it was the perfect move.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 02:01 PM EST (#267207) #
When you check out the available Starting Pitchers for next off season: , Josh Johnson may receive a contract extention before season end.  That removes another of the Top Pitchers from the list, maybe leaving Tim Lincecum as the last gasp for someone.  
Gerry - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 02:19 PM EST (#267208) #
The Blue Jays have demonstrated that they are not comfortable playing in the major free agent market.  They are active in the draft and player development.  The other way to bring in talent is through trades.  They should sign Johnson to an extension and then next off-season trade one of their big five starters for similar value to what they paid for Dickey.
CeeBee - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 03:23 PM EST (#267211) #
A pretty good idea seeing that Drabek and Hutch should be back by 2014 and probably one or more of the youngsters could be knocking on the door.
GrrBear - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 03:47 PM EST (#267217) #
Another factor in the sudden desire by Rogers to increase the budget and let AA off the leash might be the NHL lockout. Chances are good we won't have an NHL season this winter, which means no playoffs in the spring, and since the Raptors still suck, that means the Jays are the only game in town. What better opportunity to seize the spotlight? Fan interest has already jumped up several notches, and you know Sportsnet will push the hype into the stratosphere by March. Meanwhile TSN will be stuck showing NBA and... what else?

Rogers is going in for the kill - they want not just to overtake TSN, but to bury them. Having a sudden pennant contender exclusively on your own cable sports network when there's hardly anything else to watch means ratings, ratings, and more ratings. Not to mention a likely spike in home game attendance. The investment Rogers is making now wasn't made blindly, nor was it altruistic. The good news is that we benefit as well. What do you know - a positive externality for once.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 03:48 PM EST (#267218) #

The Deal was done on Thursday, but it was Saturday when MLB granted 72 hour negotiating window.   Wow, no wonder leaks developed, with two people in the know, then 10, then 100, then 1000 or more.   A.A. picked up undervalued players for a very equitable price.  He got a CY Young award winner, a Super-Two Catcher, the only other guy to catch a Knuckleball and completely moved $6.0 MM in salary at little cost.   I fully believe the trade was Value for Value.

Roberto Osuna will be 18 and likely in A+ or even AA by season's end.  Chances are good he will be better than the broken up "Lansing 3".  As promising as he might be, the 18 year-old Outfielder Wuimer Becarra isn't that significant a loss.

subculture - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 03:49 PM EST (#267219) #
big five starters

Yeah, for that reason alone!  To be able to talk about the Jays pitching with that sentence!  Priceless :)
Geoff - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 04:18 PM EST (#267220) #
The major league team has positioned itself to be competitive and entertaining. Things could certainly go sideways, that's just the nature of professional sports. But the ingredients are in place for the potential of an entertaining summer.

This is a big takeaway from this offseason, no matter what promising and uncertain futures the young men traded away may have. Nothing is certain, not for the players of this year's roster or for the players the Jays traded away. I understand the expected price of Dickey was to be lower than what the Jays paid. And much of that value can hinge on just how special is Dickey? How much did other teams want him? What will he do at the Dome? Can he amaze even more, post-Mets?

The Blue Jays have made a big push here, acquiring tested and high-calibre people that know how to play and warrant much excitement for the coming season. My thought is: can you imagine being a Pirate fan for the last 20 years? A long, long string of consecutive losing seasons. Granted the hope there can be said to be brighter now than it has been in any of the past 20 years, but if you want some perspective at how fortunate Jays fans should feel I say take a look there. It can be really difficult to know what you have without taking yourself outside the walls of your own understanding. Pretend to be a Pittsburghian for a moment. 20 losing seasons. A long history of failed prospects. Fortune and opportunity must be seized when the opportunity arises, lest 20 losing seasons pass you by.

Hooray for Conquistador Alex. Be forever bold.

Mike D - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 04:36 PM EST (#267222) #

I feel the same way as Mike Green about the outbound players, but after hearing AA's interview on 590 yesterday, my ultimate verdict is "yeah."

I think AA is sincere about the "window of contention" analysis regarding Bautista, Edwin, Buehrle, etc.  In the past, he's often justified not making splashy acquisitions because it "wasn't timed right" to contend.  I always thought (and reasonably so, frankly) that this was an excuse to cover up budgetary restraints.  But it appears to be something about which he is dead serious.

Reading between the lines of the interview, I think AA has concluded that there is very little chance that the team can keep Josh Johnson, and this is why I support the Dickey acquisition.  If Johnson has a good season, he'll seek and obtain a nine-figure deal and no-trade clause, and not from the Jays; the team is right at the very top of its payroll limits and Buck's salary for 2013 had to come off the books to make the Dickey acquisition work.  Dickey, given his age and primary pitch and the Mets' uncompetitive team, was the one chance for the Jays to obtain a front-of-the-rotation starter for 2014 and 2015 (who was actually available) without having to shell out for a contract like that.  (Maybe a playoff run and 3 million in attendance will change the willingness to pay ace-level contract, but that's not assured.)  Even if Syndergaard does turn into a #1 or #2, it won't be soon enough for the Jays' window.

Somewhat counter-intuitively, if the Jays extend Josh Johnson, it makes the Dickey trade seem a lot worse to me.  But I think the Jays need Dickey, or someone of that calibre, to anchor the rotation that will probably feature Drabek or Hutchison instead of Johnson starting in 2014.  So that's why I'm a "yeah."

greenfrog - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 04:55 PM EST (#267225) #
I agree with Mike D. I don't see Johnson getting extended. The price tag would likely be too high, given his health issues (even if they're reasonably optimistic about his health for 2013). But with Dickey, the Jays would have the makings of a pretty good rotation in 2014, even without JJ. The depth chart might look something like:


That's a pretty good start. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Stroman given a shot at starting...
Matthew E - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 05:09 PM EST (#267227) #
I would prefer Johnson to be extended, assuming he's himself. A guy like that can't be replaced easily, and this is the American League East. Plus, they've got a window where they're the only ones who can negotiate with him, which is an advantage. It might be wise to hold off until the middle of the summer, once he's had a chance to experience the team and the city and get to like the place a little.

Anyway. I'm enthusiastic about Johnson and Dickey and Buehrle, and I've always liked Morrow, but I find myself hoping that Romero can bounce back and show them all how it's done. And even more than that I have a little sliver of hope that Dustin McGowan will surpass them all.

CeeBee - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 06:35 PM EST (#267232) #
McGowan is the real longshot wildcard. If for some strange reason he actually got healthy for a whole season he could either push Romero out of the picture or make somebody available at the trading deadline for another more needed piece.
bpoz - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 07:34 PM EST (#267235) #
Yea to this deal.
The payroll is huge but we have a very rich owner. The fans of Toronto & Canada may shell out $ & entertainment time on the Jays.
At this time only the J Reyes contract is long enough to be an albatross.

Switching to an expression of wild optimism. If this team wins then AA & Gibbons & the Jays FO will be viewed as extremely good. A group to rely on.
Winning & Marketing a contender properly should snag, hook, capture a whole lot of new fans. That should be very important in many respects besides Money.
AWeb - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 08:55 PM EST (#267241) #
Yeah - good trade for the Mets too, but the Jays need to get over the "3rd place with a good team" consolation prize they were on for so many years. As constructed now, if things don't go wrong, the team should be a playoff contender. This is opposed to the last 10-15 years, where things had to go right. The Jays if things go right look awesome  (things going right - every key team member performs at the past two year levels and remains mostly healthy). Sure, the outgoing players could end being really good...that's why the Mets made the trade.

One thing on D'Arnaud - I know scouts loved him, but his offense was Vegas-inflated last year. I'm still not convinced you get any read on a hitter playing there (performances of Gomes? Arencibia? Snider? etc...). Dropping the Vegas affiliate might be the best offseason move this year...
Waveburner - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 11:00 PM EST (#267250) #

I think not re-signing Johnson would make these moves seem a little worse, as the Jays clear years of contention are 2013-2015. So letting him walk and taking the draft pick hurts that plan significantly. Although at this point I am kind of expecting the Jays to contend for the division all season, which should bring a significat uptick in revenue (attendance and TV ratings). Playoffs would bring anymore. So I'm not too worried about Anthopoulos saying that about $20 million dollar pitchers now, with the budget as is. If things go right tha budget should continue to go up a bit. It's not like there would be a slew of other guys to sign too, Johnson is about the only one.


katman - Wednesday, December 19 2012 @ 12:35 AM EST (#267258) #
I was a bit shocked at the price. But I say yes.

Matthew E's comment about JB is spot on, and he isn't the only expiring commodity. Look at this organization's minors, objectively. At the positions, it's weak. But it has pitching. The major leaguers have position players, but slim starting pitching.

We can wait for the pitchers to mature, and have to bring in a bunch of high-end position players by the time we have a dominant set. Or we can bring in pitchers now, trading some of our minor league depth in that area, and try to make a run with this set of position players.

Those were our choices. Pick one.

The division has opened the door in 2013, and our acquisitions will keep us strong into 2014. Yes, this was the right time to go for it. I wasn't sure they would, and they did. Happiness.

Am I still worried about Lind (or whomever DH), Rasmus, 2nd base, and catcher. In decreasing order of worry, yeah, I am. One way or another, at least 2 of those holes will need to resolve, if we really want to play in another World Series. And our pitching can sustain 1 injury/ flameout, but not more.

So there's risk. But the only reason we can sustain even 1 pitching hole is RA Dickey. You have to have at least that much cushion, or you're doomed. He's also the reason the set continues to be very strong into 2014. Once you make the Miami deal, you have to make the RA Dickey deal.

At a non-Yankees payroll, there always will be risk. But this is the best rotation the Jays have ever fielded. EVER. Our defense is good enough. Not fantastic, but at least average and probably a shade above. Pitching and defense is where it starts. And our team now has legit speed from 3-4 players now, in addition to a lot of power. This is a risk set I like - and once you get to the playoffs, anything can happen.

Will some OBP shine on us? Let's hope so, because if it does, this is going to be one seriously scary team.
Lylemcr - Wednesday, December 19 2012 @ 01:52 AM EST (#267262) #

That is good question, "Is this the best starting rotation the Blue Jays have ever started?"

1992 had a staff of Steib, Morris, Key, Guzman and Stottlemyre.  Steib was a shell of himself.  I also want to not that Cone came later that year, and Wells, Leiter and Hentgen were in the bullpen. 

I think the 1991 staff was comparable to this year with Candiotti, Guzman, Stottlemyre, Wells and Key.

bpoz - Wednesday, December 19 2012 @ 09:52 AM EST (#267276) #
I am not worried about Lind, Rasmus, Romero or anyone else who looks a little uncertain regarding performance.

It is Gibbons, Mottola, Walker & Hentgen that have to be smart. If a player breaks a leg then someone else will have to fill in. An injury like KJ had last year is harder to deal with. If anyone pitches like Romero did in 2011 then it is easy to keep running them out there. But if anyone pitches like the 2012 Romero & is healthy, the team will suffer. How that is handled is crucial. Same type of thinking for the hitters.

Logically it makes sense to say that If you put your best players on the field then your chances of winning are the greatest. But in baseball many teams do not do that because that type of thinking is probably wrong. C Janssen had options in 2010 so he could be sent down. We did not want to risk losing valuable players that did not have options left.

Baseball strategy & team construction is very complicated.
raptorsaddict - Wednesday, December 19 2012 @ 08:23 PM EST (#267321) #
A very big yes.
TamRa - Wednesday, December 19 2012 @ 11:50 PM EST (#267326) #
a considered yes.

I do believe it was a mild - not huge - overpay. He's a Cy winner and even with the caveats, those don't come cheap. I consider it a mild overpay because i think that Syndergaard, JPA, and someone like, say, Dwight Smith ought to have been pretty fair but they just didn't intend to take JP.

That said, it was still the right move even if you have to overpay. The reality is that it's like an e-bay auction:

You have it in your head that the item you want is worth $100 to you, and the bid reaches and exceeds that price by a buck or two. At that point it's NOT whether or not you are spending the first $100 - you were always prepared to do that. It's about the number of marginal dollars you are willing to overpay to seal the deal. you have to ask yourself - "Am I willing to do without my desired $100 item because I won't go to $110?"

in this case, the smart move was pretty obviously to overpay if that's what it took. From the description of events, it doesn't seem like AA was bidding against himself.

I had a higher view of d'Arnaud than was perhaps warrented but I know "the cost of doing business" when i see it.

hypobole - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 01:35 AM EST (#267327) #
"He's a Cy winner and even with the caveats, those don't come cheap"

But this Cy Young winner did come cheap. The cost in prospects was so high because we got Dickey for an overpaid backup catcher, thus not adding a penny to a maxed out 2013 budget, plus 2 more years of future control at a reasonable price.
TamRa - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 03:13 AM EST (#267328) #
Well yes, on the contract (which is a major factor in mitigating the "overpay" in prospects to besure)

I was confining myself to the payment made to the METS, not to Dickey. The context being "for what price (in prospects) could the Mets be expected to let their prize go?"

What we pay Dickey has nothing to do with what it takes to persuade the Mets.

ayjackson - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 07:46 AM EST (#267330) #
It's more like an EBay auction where AA selected the "Buy it now" option.
John Northey - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 07:50 AM EST (#267332) #
But what we pay Dickey has a lot to do with what we are willing to pay the Mets for him.  It is a net cost thing - if you value the first 6 years of control for a d'Arnaud as $x, the first 6 years of control of Syndergaard as $y and Becerra as $z and 3+1 years of a Cy Young winner as $a plus however long you have Thole as $b then the Jays put together a formula as $a + $b > $x + $y + $z + what you pay Dickey/Thole.  If that comes out as true then you pay it.  If false, you don't.  There would be a heavy discount to the value of years after 2015 applied as the Jays see 2013/14/15 as the window for contending at the moment, with 2013 the strongest (due to Johnson, the Red Sox being weak, Tampa not having time to replace Shields, Yankees injury/age/budget woes).
hypobole - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 08:15 AM EST (#267334) #
"What we pay Dickey has nothing to do with what it takes to persuade the Mets."

Obviously it did, since the deal with the Mets was contingent on being able to agree to an extension with Dickey, and the extension contingent on Dickeys price being reasonable.
Geoff - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 08:24 AM EST (#267335) #
I agree that you do need to take all factors into account of the value assigned to the trade. The signability of Dickey is a great factor as is his expected performance. Simply put, there are not many Dickeys out there and it was imperative for AA, I'm sure, to seize this opportunity. For his elite performance, his cost and the expectation for durability he looks like an enormous asset if you are committed to believing in R.A. Dickey. If not, then sure you wonder why he sent such well regarded young players. He must have felt he had to, to not let this unique opportunity slip away.

Let us hope it turns out just as well as AA believes. I like to imagine someone in the organization picks up the knuckleball from our new stud pitcher. Which would seem to really increase the total value, should it work. How about McGowan? He's a smart, eager and soon to be desperate kid in pursuit of a dream.
Paul D - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 09:09 AM EST (#267337) #
Yeah. This is more than I'd wanted to give up two weeks ago, but teams cannot make the mistake of ending up in the middle ground - be great or be bad, don't just be average.

I think there's really only one needed piece left - either a new DH or a platoon partner for Lind.
John Northey - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 11:23 AM EST (#267347) #
Yup, RH power hitter to platoon or a straight replacement.  I suspect a RH hitter with power who has trouble sticking (shame Josh Phelps is retired, he'd have fit that slot perfectly).  CF could be an issue if Rasmus keeps this 80's OPS+ stuff up, but Gose is in AAA pushing and Bonifacio is capable as well. 

At this point I'd expect Davis to platoon with Lind, while AA keeps hunting for a AAA masher who cannot get a break. Most end up in Japan, but it looks like Randy Ruiz might be back :)  I guess Sierra could be used too but I think he'll be in AAA this year.
Mike Green - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 11:27 AM EST (#267348) #
See, I don't get the magic of having a RH power hitter.  I want a good right-handed hitter to platoon with Lind, whether it's a .300/.365/.460 guy (perhaps with a little speed) or a .260/.340/.500 masher makes no difference to me.  The club has plenty of RH pop already...
uglyone - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 11:44 AM EST (#267349) #
I bet you Cooper would give us a league average or above bat, and wouldn't have to sit v. lefties.
Chuck - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 11:47 AM EST (#267350) #

shame Josh Phelps is retired, he'd have fit that slot perfectly

I don't know that there's room in the game for this type of player any more. The no-defense RHB is too much of a luxury to carry on the short modern day 4-man bench. Any RH halves of DH platoons are going to be able to need to do something else. Rajai Davis can pinch-run and play the outfield (albeit not very well). I think he's Lind's platoon partner even if you'd really prefer a little more than his 290/349/417 career numbers vs LHP.

hypobole - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 11:50 AM EST (#267351) #
If AA really wants to add a platoon partner for Lind:

"The Padres are using their bullpen depth, infield depth and Jesus Guzman as trade bait, says Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune as part of his most recent chat with readers."

2012 vs LHP: .303/.401/.541 sOPS+ 149
Career vs LHP:.311/.387/.509 sOPS+ 130
TamRa - Friday, December 21 2012 @ 05:37 AM EST (#267373) #

Obviously it did, since the deal with the Mets was contingent on being able to agree to an extension with Dickey, and the extension contingent on Dickeys price being reasonable.

You are looking at it exactly backwards.

We could have been willing to pay Dickey 25 mil a year and if we were not willing to give NY d'Arnaud it would not have mattered.

John Northey - Friday, December 21 2012 @ 07:51 AM EST (#267374) #
I think the point is, if Dickey wanted $25 mil then the deal was off even if NY would've taken just John Buck.  If he wanted $20 mil then only one of d'Arnaud or Syndergaard would've worked thus it might have collapsed.  But at what he took, woohoo!
TamRa - Friday, December 21 2012 @ 02:17 PM EST (#267395) #
that might be the point but I don't think there's a shred of evidence for that. Why in heaven's name would they have traded a Cy winner for a salary dump when they would have taken the same salary (roughly) back in the deal?

That makes no sense at all. Their ONLY motivation for dealing him was rebuilding - you don't rebuild without getting the best young players in return that are possible to obtain - if you don't get the proper deal then you wait until July.

eudaimon - Friday, December 21 2012 @ 05:41 PM EST (#267398) #
I think the main point is that this deal doesn't happen if RA Dickey asks for more money. It's about rebuilding for the Mets, but the Blue Jays are primarily motivated by the massive discount on the 2012 Cy Young winner. If RAD asks for 25 million / year this deal never happens.
Richard S.S. - Friday, December 21 2012 @ 07:20 PM EST (#267402) #
The entire Mets "offer" was to stir up interest in trading him, no ifs ands or buts.   A $3.0 MM difference per year is insignificant.   R.A. said something about a Mets 3B-man at the "Christmas party" and quickly became a pariah.   The rest is history.
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