Hash out!
That's about as ugly a first inning as it gets. I looked up last years game log for R.A and his worst start was in April, where he went 4.2 innings and gave up 8 ER. As you know the rest of the year ended up going pretty well.
So, not time to panic. The knuckle looks a little dull today.
So, not time to panic. The knuckle looks a little dull today.
R.A. seems to have trouble pitching when the knuckler is really good. He's going to have to pitch better in 1st innings than this. Give up two runs this early and it may be more than this team can match.
It just depends on which Lester shows up.
It just depends on which Lester shows up.
2 on gotta pinch hit Bautista. Won't get better chance methinks
Not at all. PH for Blanco JP can catch. It's Lester pitching. Got to take your best chance to narrow lead otherwise it's over
I like the Marlins trade so far, (Beurhle is not great but getting Reyes, Josh Johnson and Emilio more than makes up for it) but this Mets trade is not looking so good. Hope Dickey turns it around, but we gave the Mets better prospects than we gave the Marlins, and its all tied up in how well Dickey does. Not that I think D'arnaud is going to be great, I still think JPA is going to have a better career than him. But I really really liked Syndegard.
I'd really like to know what happened to Dickey with the first 5 batters in this game. It put the team in an impossible position in trying to win.
Dickey has himself said his pitches are moving so much he's having trouble controlling the pitch.
Dickey has himself said his pitches are moving so much he's having trouble controlling the pitch.
"Dickey has himself said his pitches are moving so much he's having trouble controlling the pitch."
It'll be interesting to see how he fares in his next game outside the Dome.
Well 4 games so far with our new pitchers, and not one has been a good one.
It'll be interesting to see how he fares in his next game outside the Dome.
Well 4 games so far with our new pitchers, and not one has been a good one.
David Price had an ugly outing as well. Bad Ace Day today
It's painful to see one of the Jays' big acquisitions get hit hard, but it's very early - who knows how the trade will look down the road? I would give Dickey at least a couple of months before fretting too much.
I watched the first few innings of today's game. From the slow-motion replays it looked as though some of Dickey's knuckleballs had too much rotation, and therefore too little movement (if I understand the physics correctly).
I watched the first few innings of today's game. From the slow-motion replays it looked as though some of Dickey's knuckleballs had too much rotation, and therefore too little movement (if I understand the physics correctly).
Yeah too funny. Price also gives up 8 runs in 5 and his team is also losing13-0. Weird coincidences. Reminds me of the old ads for Pro-line. Who'd have figured.
I was in transit and saw none of today's game. Curious to hear some theories about what happened.
Dickey's nightmare start last April came in Atlanta. It was pouring rain. He got tattooed. He wasn't even falling behind that many hitters, if I recall correctly. He just seemed to be throwing BP, maybe leaving everything up.
As to the aces getting pasted everywhere, James Shields had a rough first inning today, as well. But he got over it...
Dickey's nightmare start last April came in Atlanta. It was pouring rain. He got tattooed. He wasn't even falling behind that many hitters, if I recall correctly. He just seemed to be throwing BP, maybe leaving everything up.
As to the aces getting pasted everywhere, James Shields had a rough first inning today, as well. But he got over it...
I can't believe no one else thinks pinch hitting Jose for Blanco in the 2nd inning would not be a good idea. Not only would the best case scenario still leave us down 2 runs, but our pitchers would have had to hit the rest of the game with Lind the only bench option and no backup catcher.
After 2 starts, Dickey, David Price and Cole Hamels all have ERA's over 8, with Hamels' 10.97 the worst of the bunch.
Then there's the Pirates' "hitting" through 5 games - .117/.185/.145. Snider has only started 1 of 6 games counting today's and has a slash line of zero's in his 5 PA's, with 2 K's.
After 2 starts, Dickey, David Price and Cole Hamels all have ERA's over 8, with Hamels' 10.97 the worst of the bunch.
Then there's the Pirates' "hitting" through 5 games - .117/.185/.145. Snider has only started 1 of 6 games counting today's and has a slash line of zero's in his 5 PA's, with 2 K's.
If Bautista wasn't ready to play nine innings at the start of the game then it would make no sense to bring him in to play 8 1/2 in a game where you are down by 5. And of course all the other reasons already mentioned.
Speaking of former outfielder's traded for relief pitchers: why did Seattle trade for Eric Thames again? He's in AAA and their outfield is crowded. Meanwhile, we have Delabar who's been looking pretty solid and seems to be at least a good relief arm. Looks like a pretty good trade on AAs part.
Matt Cain can be added to the list of 8+ ERA's after 2 starts.
Anyone else amazed with what we are seeing from Cecil? Strikeout numbers can't last, but he seems to have discovered an extra three mph on his fastball. Average fb last year was 89.1. This year: 92.2. Faster than Cecil has ever thrown in his life (closest was 2009 when he threw 90.7). He's also added 4 mph to his curveball.
Someone owes Steve Delabar a beer.
Someone owes Steve Delabar a beer.
I find the most frustrating part about Dickey is that I have no clue how to evaluate him. If it's a regular pitcher there are plenty of signs that could tell us that we're overreacting or if he's really lost something but all I see is a pitcher standing on the mound throwing BP, starting from his first start in the WBC up until today.
Yes: Cecil has really impressed. First the weight loss, now the arm strengthening program - good for him for doing everything he can to succeed in the majors.
I think part of it for Cecil could be the shift to the bullpen. If I remember right it tends to add a few Mph to overall velocity.
He was in the bullpen last year for a bit, and did see a bit of a bump, but nothing like this. I was at the opener and the gun had him touching 94.
http://bjays.wordpress.com/2013/04/07/dickeys-knuckler-harder-better-faster/
This may help myself and others out when trying to evaluate Dickey.
This may help myself and others out when trying to evaluate Dickey.
I suspect a lot is factoring into Cecil's situation. From small sample size to preping all winter to be a reliever for the first time. Relieving is a different mind set and some guys might need time to get 'into' it. IIRC Cecil was talking about Scott Downs last year and that he talked with him back when he was here about the transition...probably more out of curiosity than anything back then as he was a hotshot kid starter still. I could be wrong on that though as I cannot find a quote at the moment.
Still, looking back at Downs you can see how it happens, Downs came up at 24, was injured, kept trying as a starter, was traded, did well as a Jay in a mixed role but not great, then was 'wow' as a reliever for years and still is out there today in his last year of a 3 year/$15 mil deal. Lets hope as odds are Oliver is gone after this year and we'll need a left hander we can count on out there although Loup might be one too - and the more the merrier I say.
Still, looking back at Downs you can see how it happens, Downs came up at 24, was injured, kept trying as a starter, was traded, did well as a Jay in a mixed role but not great, then was 'wow' as a reliever for years and still is out there today in his last year of a 3 year/$15 mil deal. Lets hope as odds are Oliver is gone after this year and we'll need a left hander we can count on out there although Loup might be one too - and the more the merrier I say.
JB21 - his knuckle ball average 77.12 MPH today (via Brooks Baseball) but his control/spin/etc. appeared all over the place.
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?month=4&day=7&year=2013&game=gid_2013_04_07_bosmlb_tormlb_1%2F&pitchSel=285079&prevGame=gid_2013_04_07_bosmlb_tormlb_1%2F&prevDate=47
For a year by year comparison...
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/player_cards/player_card.php?player=285079#tab4
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?month=4&day=7&year=2013&game=gid_2013_04_07_bosmlb_tormlb_1%2F&pitchSel=285079&prevGame=gid_2013_04_07_bosmlb_tormlb_1%2F&prevDate=47
For a year by year comparison...
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/player_cards/player_card.php?player=285079#tab4
Hill and Hinske homer to lead the D'Backs to a 4th straight win. The sticks of 2006...
So, what would a team of ex-Jays look like right now? Hill at 2B obviously, but who else?
After watching ball after ball either speed through the Jays infield or bloop over the infielders heads, I wondered how the Jays fielding metrics looked.
DER (from B-Ref) shows the Jays at .670, second worst in the league and only better than the Yankees.
Total zone rating (from B-Ref) has the Jays at third worst in the league.
BIS defensive runs saved has the Jays in the middle of the pack.
BABIP allowed (Fangraphs) has the Jays as fifth worst in the AL.
At this stage my thoughts are that the Jays have not played well defensively but also they have been somewhat unlucky. (And yes I know it's a tiny sample size).
We knew 3B would be a problem with Lawrie out, but I've been surprised with how Reyes looks at SS. There isn't much range there.
Interesting Gerry. Just checked B-R to see if losing Butterfield might be the cause...
DER .670 for the Jays, miles ahead of the Yankees in last (.609) Boston at 689. Jays are as close to 4th (Oakland) as they are to last (Yankees) - wow
2012: Jays DER: .694 dead on league average, Yankees just barely behind at 693 while Boston was at 689 and dead last was KC at 673.
So big time slump for the Jays defensively, but odds are a good few games could jump them up the standings quick in that department. The Yankees forgot what that white ball is for when they are fielding thus far. Mixing in the NL you see Milwaukee way down there at 622 and Philly at 651.
For those who don't know, DER measures outs on balls in play - higher is better. If you have good positioning and good fielders you should be high up on this.
DER .670 for the Jays, miles ahead of the Yankees in last (.609) Boston at 689. Jays are as close to 4th (Oakland) as they are to last (Yankees) - wow
2012: Jays DER: .694 dead on league average, Yankees just barely behind at 693 while Boston was at 689 and dead last was KC at 673.
So big time slump for the Jays defensively, but odds are a good few games could jump them up the standings quick in that department. The Yankees forgot what that white ball is for when they are fielding thus far. Mixing in the NL you see Milwaukee way down there at 622 and Philly at 651.
For those who don't know, DER measures outs on balls in play - higher is better. If you have good positioning and good fielders you should be high up on this.
I just read from JLott that the team intends on adding Edgar Gonzalez to the roster for Bush tomorrow. So first the 8 man bullpen's purpose was to try capitalizing on Jeffress' value. Then, after one appearance, that no longer mattered, and he was DFAd for Bush under the guise of needing fresh arms for the bullpen. Now, despite the first 6 relievers all receiving 2 days off, AA has chosen to add someone who wasn't good enough for the Houston Astros to the roster. When Mark DeRosa starts 4 games in a row, you're doing something very wrong with your roster construction.
Not quite sure why we're surprised at Reyes below average fielding - he has been a negative each of the past 4 years by both BBRef Total Zone and FanGraphs UZR.
"....So first the 8 man bullpen's purpose was to try capitalizing on Jeffress' value...."
Wrong. That was just one of several reasons for the 8-man pen. Its primary purpose was to protect the health of the top relievers. But perhaps you would have liked to see Janssen and Santos pitching in a 13-0 blowout yesterday, instead of Dave Bush, so that the Jays would have the valuable option of Mike McCoy as a pinch-runner?
Wrong. That was just one of several reasons for the 8-man pen. Its primary purpose was to protect the health of the top relievers. But perhaps you would have liked to see Janssen and Santos pitching in a 13-0 blowout yesterday, instead of Dave Bush, so that the Jays would have the valuable option of Mike McCoy as a pinch-runner?
The club's two best defensive players are on the DL and in Buffalo.
The club has cast its lot with Reyes defensively, and the hope is that when Lawrie returns, he'll be able to position himself better. Isn't the thinking that Bonifacio has been all right defensively (consistent with his career statisitics) and that Encarnacion has also been OK? The other issue is the outfield; there is a good answer waiting (Gose to center most of the time, Rasmus to right most of the time, Bautista does a lot of DHing) which will require some flexibility on the part of management and players. The goal is to win, isn't it?
The club has cast its lot with Reyes defensively, and the hope is that when Lawrie returns, he'll be able to position himself better. Isn't the thinking that Bonifacio has been all right defensively (consistent with his career statisitics) and that Encarnacion has also been OK? The other issue is the outfield; there is a good answer waiting (Gose to center most of the time, Rasmus to right most of the time, Bautista does a lot of DHing) which will require some flexibility on the part of management and players. The goal is to win, isn't it?
So, who would you have start instead of DeRosa? With Lawrie down and Bautista hurting and confidence in Izturis' defense at third low the options are getting thin. Call up Mike McCoy or Andy LaRoche? Honestly do you see either of them as any better than DeRosa?
This isn't so much roster construction as having 2 of the key pieces of the team go down at the same time at the early stages of the season. IE: bad luck.
This isn't so much roster construction as having 2 of the key pieces of the team go down at the same time at the early stages of the season. IE: bad luck.
Wrong. That was just one of several reasons for the 8-man pen. Its primary purpose was to protect the health of the top relievers.
China fan, if you can find me an article showing that the 8-man bullpen's primary purpose was to protect the health of the top relievers, please do, because I can show you plenty that talk about giving AA more time to sort out what to do with the roster crunch. I can also find quotes such as this one from John Lott that suggest the club had no worries about Santos or Janssen:
"Earlier, Gibbons had said that he thought the concerns about the health of Janssen and Sergio Santos are over."
But perhaps you would have liked to see Janssen and Santos pitching in a 13-0 blowout yesterday, instead of Dave Bush,
With the way the Jays chose to handle the roster I would have liked to see Jeffress pitching in that blowout and Cecil to go longer than he did. Switching from Jeffress to Bush was pointless when you've spent all spring gushing over Jeffress' stuff and seen exactly one MLB outing from that arm. Switching from Jeffress to Gonzalez is even stupider.
My last point addresses numerous commenters - if you don't think the Jays have anyone competent to call up from AAA so that they can have a standard sized MLB bench, that's the GM's fault, and precisely the problem here. The solution shouldn't be to carry 8 relievers because your offensive options all stink. Go out and find some AAAA players that can add some versatility to your roster when needed. Relievers that are discarded by one of the worst rosters in the history of baseball are not better options to carry on your roster than any Buffalo Bison bat.
Personally, I'd platoon Bonifacio at third with DaRosa and have Izturis play second. Bonifacio would play centerfield against LHPs. The club apparently thinks that Bonifacio is the better long-term choice at second; they may or may not be right about that.
From the little I saw of the series, the super-aggressive defensive positioning seems to have gone to Boston with the coaches. I also recall the Jays (Gibbons himself?) saying they would use the shifts less this year. Given how often it worked vs. how often players took advantage of it, this seems dumb thinking. Maybe they are waiting on Lawrie to return, but that doesn't really make sense for positioning.
The Jays main problem on defense has been making errors so far, though. If you stop making an error or two (+ the JP catching Dickey experience) every game, suddenly the defensive numbers look a lot better. Agreed with above on Reyes - he's not an above average defensive SS - his value has come from being a really good hitter playing a mostly passable SS. The Yankees have made this combination work for almost 20 years, so no reason why Reyes can't make it work for a few.
For some reason, unknown to me, the Jays have claimed Mauro Gomez from Boston and designated Dave Bush for assignment.
Mommy, when will the carousel stop?
92-93, it's easy to find references to the multiple reasons for the 8-man bullpen, including the health concerns about Janssen and Santos. Here, for example, is one from the official Jays site, just 3 days ago:
"The Blue Jays fully expect to monitor Janssen's workload during the first few weeks of the year. That's one of the reasons Toronto opted to carry an eight-man bullpen after third baseman Brett Lawrie was placed on the 15-day disabled list in March."
http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130404&content_id=43905550¬ebook_id=43907568&vkey=notebook_tor&c_id=tor
"The Blue Jays fully expect to monitor Janssen's workload during the first few weeks of the year. That's one of the reasons Toronto opted to carry an eight-man bullpen after third baseman Brett Lawrie was placed on the 15-day disabled list in March."
http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130404&content_id=43905550¬ebook_id=43907568&vkey=notebook_tor&c_id=tor
The Red Sox could have a pretty good lineup once Ortiz and Drew are back:
Ellsbury CF
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Middlebrooks 3B
Victorino RF
Drew SS
JBJ/Gomes LF
Ross C
Bench: Iglesias, Salty, Nava, Gomes, Ciriaco
Some question marks, but not bad for a retooling year, especially given that the team held on to basically all of its prospects in the off-season.
I like the Jays' lineup better when everyone is healthy, but health is by no means a sure thing for either team.
Ellsbury CF
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Middlebrooks 3B
Victorino RF
Drew SS
JBJ/Gomes LF
Ross C
Bench: Iglesias, Salty, Nava, Gomes, Ciriaco
Some question marks, but not bad for a retooling year, especially given that the team held on to basically all of its prospects in the off-season.
I like the Jays' lineup better when everyone is healthy, but health is by no means a sure thing for either team.
I just read from JLott that the team intends on adding Edgar Gonzalez to
the roster for Bush tomorrow. So first the 8 man bullpen's purpose was
to try capitalizing on Jeffress' value. Then, after one appearance, that
no longer mattered, and he was DFAd...
Well, if Jefress goes unclaimed that will work just as it was intended to.
If not they gambled and lost. Bush suckingup lost innings is irrelevant to me. I to am puzzled at the addition of this Gonzolez fellow.
I really have no passion for either side of the "short bench" argument. I'm sympathetic to the view that LaRoche would bring more value to the team than the 8th reliever, in a vacuum...BUT...I don't see a spot in any of these games in which the Jays would have clearly had a different outcome if he'd been here. Conversely, I can imagine that they would be marginally worse off if they overtaxed the bullpen too often this early.
In other words, in the abstract i don't like the short bench, but the day-to-day circumstances can certainly mitigate that.
I'll leave aside the whole "the GM should have better hitters in AAA" discussion for others.
Well, if Jefress goes unclaimed that will work just as it was intended to.
If not they gambled and lost. Bush suckingup lost innings is irrelevant to me. I to am puzzled at the addition of this Gonzolez fellow.
I really have no passion for either side of the "short bench" argument. I'm sympathetic to the view that LaRoche would bring more value to the team than the 8th reliever, in a vacuum...BUT...I don't see a spot in any of these games in which the Jays would have clearly had a different outcome if he'd been here. Conversely, I can imagine that they would be marginally worse off if they overtaxed the bullpen too often this early.
In other words, in the abstract i don't like the short bench, but the day-to-day circumstances can certainly mitigate that.
I'll leave aside the whole "the GM should have better hitters in AAA" discussion for others.
Re: the acquition of Gonzalez from the Astro's. Yes the Astros suck, but not because their 26th man is worse than most other teams 26th men.
China fan, I figured you could do a lot better than a post-hoc analysis if you were going to declare me wrong because the team's primary purpose was different than the one I expressed.
For some reason, unknown to me, the Jays have claimed Mauro Gomez from Boston and designated Dave Bush for assignment.
The reason seems clear if you've been reading these threads the last few days. Gomez has handled LHP (.312/.367/.632, 22 HR, 297 PA) very well in the minors.
Well, sounds like AA is using the last slot on the 40 man and last slot on the 25 man as 'lets throw it on the wall and see if it sticks'.
Gomez certainly has shown he can hit in AAA (307/363/551 lifetime) and did OK over 111 PA in the majors last year (275/324/422 for a 99 OPS+). Can play 1B/3B although the stats for him at 3B suggest he is more of a 1B guy. Seems well worth a 40 man slot for a club with a shortage of bats at the high minors.
Edgar Gonzalez is a guy who has bounced around a bit, 1088 minor league innings (4.16 ERA 6.3 K/9 vs 2.3 BB/9) vs 350 ML innings (5.8 K/9 vs 3.1 BB/9). The Jays are at least his 7th organization in this his age 30 season. A guy who many think will do something someday but never does it seems. Perfectly good for the 8th reliever, a guy who comes in when others are tired or it is into extra innings. Don't see him as better or worse than Bush in that slot, and I prefer a guy who can go multiple innings for that slot vs Jeffress who is suited only for 1 inning at a time.
Gomez certainly has shown he can hit in AAA (307/363/551 lifetime) and did OK over 111 PA in the majors last year (275/324/422 for a 99 OPS+). Can play 1B/3B although the stats for him at 3B suggest he is more of a 1B guy. Seems well worth a 40 man slot for a club with a shortage of bats at the high minors.
Edgar Gonzalez is a guy who has bounced around a bit, 1088 minor league innings (4.16 ERA 6.3 K/9 vs 2.3 BB/9) vs 350 ML innings (5.8 K/9 vs 3.1 BB/9). The Jays are at least his 7th organization in this his age 30 season. A guy who many think will do something someday but never does it seems. Perfectly good for the 8th reliever, a guy who comes in when others are tired or it is into extra innings. Don't see him as better or worse than Bush in that slot, and I prefer a guy who can go multiple innings for that slot vs Jeffress who is suited only for 1 inning at a time.
Not that I have any longing for Farrell (I'm happy he's gone), but the early returns on his work with Lester and Buchholz are promising:
Lester: 2-0, 1.50, 12 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 0 HR, 2 BB, 13 K
Buchholz: 2-0, 0.64, 14 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 6 BB, 12 K
Lester: 2-0, 1.50, 12 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 0 HR, 2 BB, 13 K
Buchholz: 2-0, 0.64, 14 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 6 BB, 12 K
As I mentioned in an earlier thread, the whole Jeffress/Bush/Gonzalez revolving-door debacle is largely a result of Ricky Romero's implosion. The Jays needed someone in the bullpen to "chew up innings" (in the words of Gibbons a couple days ago). In the pre-season, they gave try-outs to Jeffress and Cecil in that long role, giving them multiple-innings in spring games to see if they could handle the long-man duties. But the Jays weren't really worried because they figured they had Happ as the long man in the bullpen. Instead, to their surprise, Romero completely imploded and couldn't handle the 5th-starter job, so Happ had to go into the rotation. At the same time, Jeffress and Cecil failed at the long-man role, since both were clearly better in shorter stints. That left .... nobody. And the starting pitchers were lasting only 5 or 6 innings, so an inning-eater was needed. They tried Bush and now they're trying Gonzalez. It's a revolving door, but ultimately it's the collateral damage from Romero's disintegration. All the more reason to hope that he gets his stuff together soon.
If the Jays were "surprised" by the continuation of Romero's problems, the new group is no more competent than the old group.
I think if they are surprised, it's by how effective Cecil has been so far when used in short bursts. I'm guessing it isn't so much that Cecil failed, but that he's been too good to be the mop-up guy.
I think if they are surprised, it's by how effective Cecil has been so far when used in short bursts. I'm guessing it isn't so much that Cecil failed, but that he's been too good to be the mop-up guy.
I am hoping that the Jay's added talent translates into a WS championship. If not then there has to be a plan B for 2014 or something. Whatever that is.
So I do not know what AA is doing. The relievers acquired in the Rasmus trade were released quite fast. This seems to be happening again this year. Release, demoted, DFA'd. Sam Dyson gone to clear space for M DeRosa. Chances are he will not become great, but I thought more highly of him than A Loup. ?????
Interesting thoughts by 92-93 and CF. I am with 92-93 because the record of 2-4 seems weak and I do not like it. If we were 6-0 I would like to go on the wagon of CF.
IMO we have had some good pitching and bad pitching results. The offense has been bad at times.
Hopefully the rest of April will be a whole lot better.
So I do not know what AA is doing. The relievers acquired in the Rasmus trade were released quite fast. This seems to be happening again this year. Release, demoted, DFA'd. Sam Dyson gone to clear space for M DeRosa. Chances are he will not become great, but I thought more highly of him than A Loup. ?????
Interesting thoughts by 92-93 and CF. I am with 92-93 because the record of 2-4 seems weak and I do not like it. If we were 6-0 I would like to go on the wagon of CF.
IMO we have had some good pitching and bad pitching results. The offense has been bad at times.
Hopefully the rest of April will be a whole lot better.
f you don't think the Jays have anyone competent to call up from AAA so that they can have a standard sized MLB bench, that's the GM's fault, and precisely the problem here.
So after the claim that the 8 man bullpen was so clearly wrong, the answer to the question "Who is this position player that should have been added instead of an 8th pitcher?" is apparently "It's the GM's fault". Who could possibly have seen that coming?
So after the claim that the 8 man bullpen was so clearly wrong, the answer to the question "Who is this position player that should have been added instead of an 8th pitcher?" is apparently "It's the GM's fault". Who could possibly have seen that coming?
Tough to watch Doc struggle tonight. Hope he turns it around but....
. At the same time, Jeffress and Cecil failed at the long-man role, since both were clearly better in shorter stints. That left .... nobody.
Esmil Rogers had at least 10 appearances last year that were at least 2 innings. This year, he's been used 3 times to pitch a total of 2 innings. I don't know if Rogers is better at short stints than long stints, but I haven't seen enough evidence to suggest that this is clearly the case. Furthermore, right now, Rogers looks like our sixth option in close games (behind Janssen, Oliver, Santos, Delabar and Loup). He may be the seventh option after Cecil
I don't believe an intelligent manager like Gibbons couldn't find a way to make a 7-man bullpen work.
Gibbons is a good bullpen manager, and there's no reason to be carrying an 8th reliever right now. If we just used Esmil Rogers as the long man / mopup guy, and had the other 6 guys handle the regular late game stuff, then we'd be just fine.
If I was making the decisions, I would have just waved Jeffress before the season started, as I don't think he's a valuable asset now or likely to be one in the future. We could have carried Moises Sierra until Brett Lawrie was healthy, and then sent Sierra down without any trouble. Having that extra guy on the bench gives us options that are useful on a day to day basis.
The whole 8th reliever thing isn't a big deal, I just personally find it annoying, especially since AA has a proven track record of cycling absolutely awful pitchers through the end of the bullpen.
Lets look at Gibbons pen usage in his full seasons...
2005: 432 games by 14 pitchers 499 innings or 1.16 IP per game, one appeared in 80 games for just 57 IP while another had 63 IP in just 37 3.82 ERA
2006: 482 games by 17 pitchers 529 innings or 1.10 IP per game 3.98 ERA
2007: 420 games by 16 pitchers 450 innings or 1.07 IP per game 3.46 ERA
Clearly a pattern here - fewer IP per appearance by a reliever. His best ERA from a pen was his last year with the fewest IP per pitcher. He cycled through a lot of pitchers each time and outside of year one (Pete Walker) seemed to rotate the long man role mostly. Perhaps feeling that the role was best served by AAAA guys or kids looking to get their feet wet. The types you don't want to get too exposed or the holes in their game will show up too much but for one or two games here and there they'll be fine.
I think it is clear the 8 man pen is just until Lawrie is back, but I wonder if we'll see it whenever a hitter is DL'ed unless it is a catcher (as our backup guys can cover anywhere but there).
2005: 432 games by 14 pitchers 499 innings or 1.16 IP per game, one appeared in 80 games for just 57 IP while another had 63 IP in just 37 3.82 ERA
2006: 482 games by 17 pitchers 529 innings or 1.10 IP per game 3.98 ERA
2007: 420 games by 16 pitchers 450 innings or 1.07 IP per game 3.46 ERA
Clearly a pattern here - fewer IP per appearance by a reliever. His best ERA from a pen was his last year with the fewest IP per pitcher. He cycled through a lot of pitchers each time and outside of year one (Pete Walker) seemed to rotate the long man role mostly. Perhaps feeling that the role was best served by AAAA guys or kids looking to get their feet wet. The types you don't want to get too exposed or the holes in their game will show up too much but for one or two games here and there they'll be fine.
I think it is clear the 8 man pen is just until Lawrie is back, but I wonder if we'll see it whenever a hitter is DL'ed unless it is a catcher (as our backup guys can cover anywhere but there).
FYI: 2013: 21 appearances by 9 relievers over 22 2/3 IP = 1.08 IP per game 3.97 ERA vs starters 5.40 ERA (5.56 IP per game).
Every once-in-a-while your Starter-of-the-day will have a bad game (of some sort) and go out early. Strangely, the ones early in the season stress the Bullpen more. It must be all those shorter Starts being made. Having an extra long man won't hurt. When Jeffress pitched, did it change the tenor of the game? When Bush pitched, did it change the tenor of the game? In both cases I think not.
Jeremy Jeffress has a big power arm and pitches at or beyond the limits of control. To be DFA'd that fast means someone saw something fixable. Something that can't be fixed up here. Either that or he was deemed unnecessary, a 40-Man Roster space was more necessary. Dave Bush ate needed innings and showed poorly doing it. A 40-Man Roster space was needed. Whether Bush stays with the Organisation remains to be seen.
Claiming Edgar Gonzales http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/04/blue-jays-claim-edgar-gonzalez.html is fine for the #8 spot on the roster. He'll eat a few innings and how he does at the time, will indicate his value to the Team. He's not any better than Bush and might be more effective than Jeffress. Claiming Mauro Gomez http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/04/blue-jays-claim-mauro-gomez.html and assigning him to Buffalo was a surprise. The Red Sox prefer Loney to him? He's not too bad at all http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gomezma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com . He fills a need. Once you are on A.A.'s big board, you never leave if you still have value.
Imagine if Joey Bats had been at the plate in this scenario:
http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2013_04_08_tbamlb_texmlb_1&mode=recap&c_id=tb#gid=2013_04_08_tbamlb_texmlb_1&mode=video
http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2013_04_08_tbamlb_texmlb_1&mode=recap&c_id=tb#gid=2013_04_08_tbamlb_texmlb_1&mode=video
Wow. That was one horrific strike zone call, even allowing for the typical ninth inning home team bias. One of the problem with the routine biases is that the batter is never really sure how far they go.
There was a time that "the vicinity" rule for the second baseman turning the double play was roughly "the area code". Basically if the shortstop flipped to the second baseman who was moving towards him and the second baseman made the turn, very little attention was paid to where the second baseman's foot was.
There was a time that "the vicinity" rule for the second baseman turning the double play was roughly "the area code". Basically if the shortstop flipped to the second baseman who was moving towards him and the second baseman made the turn, very little attention was paid to where the second baseman's foot was.
It's a ball, but it was actually much closer than it looks, because Pierzynski is a terrible catcher.
Wow. Just wow. If that isn't an argument for using pitch f/x for ball-strike calls I don't know what is. The pitch f/x summary of that final AB is located here. The ball actually bounced after it passed the plate, which often results in a strike being called a ball, but this ump was desperate to get home or something. 6 pitches, none swung on, just one was even close to the strike zone yet he was called out on strikes. That final pitch was a foot and a half outside the strike zone - wide that is as well as bouncing in the dirt after. There was no way on earth any umpire from little league up should've blown that, yet the ump also called the first pitch of that AB, which was as far outside but higher up, a strike as well. The video looks like the crew chief was pretty much telling Maddon that stuff happens - I suspect he was frustrated a member of his crew did such a terrible job at the end and that he would have to defend him somehow.
According to Brooks Baseball, it was almost a foot outside.
Imagine if Joey Bats had been at the plate in this scenario:
If Bautista had been at the plate, it may have been called a ball. BP has an article comparing the MLB average to Bautista in strike calls. For all the kvetching among Toronto fans about Bautista's irritation with umps, he does better, not worse, than most hitters with the umps.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20120
For years, David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis irritated umps with their constant carping over the strike zone. While umps may have hated them, they always seemed to me to do pretty well on borderline calls. And I don't recall the Boston fans getting on them.
If Bautista had been at the plate, it may have been called a ball. BP has an article comparing the MLB average to Bautista in strike calls. For all the kvetching among Toronto fans about Bautista's irritation with umps, he does better, not worse, than most hitters with the umps.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20120
For years, David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis irritated umps with their constant carping over the strike zone. While umps may have hated them, they always seemed to me to do pretty well on borderline calls. And I don't recall the Boston fans getting on them.
I would have sympathy for anyone except Tampa Bay. The brutal strike call on Zobrist seems to even things up for Lawrie getting ninth-inning strike calls on ball four and ball five from Rodney in the Helmet Toss Game.
Jeff Niemann is having shoulder surgery - a minor blow to Tampa's chances in 2013. You hate to lose depth in either your bullpen or rotation (look how it affected the Jays last year).
"The Red Sox prefer Loney to him?"
Assuming you're talking about first baseman James Loney, they don't (or at least we have no evidence they do). James Loney plays for Tampa.
CBDC, it's an interesting question. It may well be that Bautista's antics have little or no effect (or even a mildly positive effect for the batter) on how pitches are called. Sometimes in life the squeaky wheel gets the grease, even if the sound tends to be obnoxious to others.
It might also vary by ump, with Bautista receiving passive-aggressive blowback from some and indifference from others.
It might also vary by ump, with Bautista receiving passive-aggressive blowback from some and indifference from others.
Thanks Thomas.
Why T.B. acquired Loney, besides defense, is confusing, they need offense?
Napoli as 1B, and Boston's worried about a hip problem he never knew he had.
This will be a very interesting year.