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Will the Jays reverse course? Tampa are 8-2 over their last ten games. Will home cooking work for the Jays? Can Dickey do it?

The answers to these, and many other questions, will be revealed over the next 3 hours.

The Jays face some fresh meat, Jake Odorizzi is making his first major league start.
Game thread - 5/20 vs Tampa | 36 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
mike in boston - Monday, May 20 2013 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#272423) #
The throw beat him by a mile so the ump has to be sure the tag missed him.

C.B. Bucknor blows another one. Quelle surprise!

Chuck - Monday, May 20 2013 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#272424) #
Buck Martinez praised Bucknor for being in the correct position to make the call... which of course only makes the call worse, since Bucknor had a perfect view to get it right.

The human element. Enjoy.
greenfrog - Monday, May 20 2013 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#272425) #
Already this game has featured some typical 2013 Jays baseball: the passed ball allowing Longoria to advance to 2B, which subsequently allowed him to advance to 3B; the DP not turned by Boni/Kawasaki allowing Longo to score; the two-out, bases-empty walk in the third that eventually allowed TB to score two and tie the game. In other words, the plays not made (which contribute to losses and additional pitches for the starting pitcher, but don't show up in the boxscore). It could easily be 3-0 Jays instead of 3-3.
Chuck - Monday, May 20 2013 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#272427) #
A season of crisp, smart baseball this has not been.
mike in boston - Monday, May 20 2013 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#272429) #
I guess Rasmus really doesn't want to lose his job to Gose. That was a pretty dick move.
John Northey - Monday, May 20 2013 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#272430) #
It was Rasmus' ball but it looked like he never called it.  Hard to say for certain.  It was a case where whoever was going for it (both in this case) should've been yelling 'I got it'.  Maybe Rasmus is so used to a slow LF that he never expected anyone to be there.
mike in boston - Monday, May 20 2013 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#272431) #
Can anyone make out what is written on Yunel's eye black?
Magpie - Monday, May 20 2013 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#272432) #
That was a pretty dick move.

Aw, he's only 22 years old. Cut the kid some slack. And he's been playing CF in Buffalo.
greenfrog - Monday, May 20 2013 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#272436) #
Yan Gomes now hitting 302/309/642 after today's walk-off HR against Seattle.
ogator - Monday, May 20 2013 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#272437) #
Does anyone keep stats for number of double plays turned in a season and are we looking at a team that is about to set a record for fewest turns? They really don't turn very many at all. Part of it is the pitchers that they have but boy are they woeful.
greenfrog - Monday, May 20 2013 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#272438) #
Aviles hitting 292/316/472.
John Northey - Monday, May 20 2013 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#272441) #
Oakland has turned fewer (29) than the Jays (31 going into todays game) with the Rays and KC just one ahead of the Jays.

Checking FanGraphs the Jays as a team have a UZR/150 of -3.7 which ranks them 23rd in MLB.  The Astros are worst at -10.3, the Royals #1 at 12.8.  For rGDP (Double Play Runs Saved runs above average) the Jays are at 0 putting them into a tie for 12-22nd with the A's, Red Sox and Rays being worst at -3 and Astros #1 at +4.  What is interesting is the Jays are 2nd last in outs out of zone (ie: player ranging out of their zone to make an out) with 116 plays vs dead last Red Sox with 115.  The Jays were 23rd last year.  However, FanGraphs did an adjustment to clear out radical shift plays from it (which the Jays excelled at last year).

From what I can tell, statistically the Jays are a below average defensive team but not horribly so.  Part of the reason is guys not ranging out of their territory to get outs, which could indicate a low range for said players which makes sense.

Magpie - Monday, May 20 2013 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#272442) #
are we looking at a team that is about to set a record for fewest turns?

Obviously not - this isn't 1910, when teams struglled to turn 100 DPs in a season - but nevertheless only one team in the majors (Oakland) has managed fewer double plays than Toronto. Be advised, however - there is another factor that has an even larger influence on this raw number than the dexterity of your infielders, and that's the number of opportunities a team has to get a double play.

Teams with lousy pitching usually get more double plays than teams with good pitching, because there are always runners on base with less than two outs. Which is partially why the Houston Astros have more double plays than any other team in the majors, and are well on their way to clearing more than 200 this season. (Which I believe has only happened ten times.) Likewise, teams with outstanding pitching can't turn as many double plays because the opportunities simply don't exist. Which is why the most famous DP combination of all time (Tinker-Evers-Chance), on the most dominant defensive team of all time, never led the league in DPs.
katman - Monday, May 20 2013 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#272443) #
Agree with greenfrog. The Rays handed this one to us on walks. If they hadn't, that 9th inning rally wins the game for them, and it's another loss due to terrible defense.

You cannot routinely spot other teams 3 runs per game and expect a winning record. Let alone a playoff spot.

Thomas - Monday, May 20 2013 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#272444) #
Personal favourite and former Box Top 30 prospect Danny Farquhar has resurfaced in the majors with Seattle with a new delivery. So far, it's been very effective as he had 5 strikeouts over 2.2 perfect innings of relief.
Richard S.S. - Monday, May 20 2013 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#272445) #
Toronto, defensively, sucked very badly when Lawrie wasn't in the lineup.   Kawasaki replacing Reyes at SS was immaterial in comparison.   Lawrie and Rasmus are defensively very good (duh - yes).  Encarnacion is average-ish at 1st Base, while Lind is a bit better.  Kawasaki is maybe a wee bit above average while J.P. is just below average.   I can't envision anything changing here for at least this year.   At 2nd Base, it's an adventure of inadequacy, no matter who is there.  Izturis and Bonifacio should not be this bad, career numbers agree.   While I doubt A.A. will give up on anyone (most GMs have this fault) he went out of his way to acquire.
Parker - Monday, May 20 2013 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#272446) #
Since teams with bad pitching give up lots of DP opportunities, the fact that the Jays are second-last in the league in converted double plays should be cause for concern.
Gerry - Monday, May 20 2013 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#272448) #
When Farquhar first turned pro he threw over the top and submarine style. At some point he went to all submarine style. Congrats to the Mariners for converting him back. He always had a strong arm.
Spifficus - Monday, May 20 2013 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#272451) #
It's tougher to get opportunities to turn ground ball double plays when the team isn't getting ground balls. They have the second worst ground ball percentage to the A's.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 21 2013 @ 12:52 AM EDT (#272453) #
Jays fans always complain that the Jays don't draw enough walks, and swing at everything.

Now when they draw walks to help win a game, it's because the other team handed them walks.

newsflash - rays were starting a rookie on the mound, and their bullpen isn't good.
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 21 2013 @ 06:10 AM EDT (#272454) #
Jays fans always complain that the Jays don't draw enough walks, and swing at everything.

This Jays fan will be happy to stop complaining when the Jays become at least competitive in the OBP department (say, top third of all AL teams). As Keith Law recently observed, hitters need to realize that job #1 is getting their posterior to first base. Sometimes you can win with an inferior OBP (say, if you have superior pitching and defence - the Yankees are currently doing this), but usually not.

At .309, the Jays are 13th of 15th in the AL in OBP. Unsurprisingly, their W-L record also ranks 13th in the AL.
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 21 2013 @ 08:32 AM EDT (#272457) #
Two notes from yesterday's game.  Good stuff first.  What were the odds that Henry Blanco and Emilio Bonifacio would total 3 walks in the game?  I'd have guessed about 100-1 against.  I have never heard of a theory that hot weather improves plate discipline, but here's hoping. On the critical side, I was not a fan of Gibbons' decision to leave Lind in against Jake McGee.  Lind has a particular problem against left-handed pitchers- which he does not have against RHPs- laying off off-speed stuff down and away.  He tends to flail and I doubt that this is good for his back.  McGee came in with a couple of a fastballs and then went for Lind's achilles heel and it worked.  It wasn't so much the result, but rather my concern that this will either mess up his back or his new-found excellent approach against RHPs (which includes laying off the riser up). 
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 21 2013 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#272461) #
I wonder if Yan Gomes is going to get booed when he plays here.  It seems to be the pattern for players who improve once they depart. That he could hit like J.P. Arencibia wasn't a surprise, but that he would throw out 7 of 11 baserunners is. 
92-93 - Tuesday, May 21 2013 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#272462) #
Yunel was booed for a very specific reason. I didn't hear too much directed towards KJ.
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 21 2013 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#272464) #
The boos were very loud where I was sitting yesterday for KJ.  I gather it was the same for Wells and Overbay when the Yankees were in town.
92-93 - Tuesday, May 21 2013 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#272466) #
Stop sitting with the drunk teens upstairs, I guess?
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 21 2013 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#272467) #
It's obviously a small sample but Gomes has an OPS+ of 158. Arencibia has an OPS+ of 88.

At this point in 2013, Arencibia can only dream of hitting like Yan Gomes. The stats may even out over time, but right now the two aren't comparable.

Aviles is probably the greater loss, though, given the Jays' middle infield woes.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 21 2013 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#272468) #
Greenfrog - the funny thing is that the jays' obp has little to do with a lack of patience (walk rate has been hovering around 8% / middle if the pack all year), and everything to do with batting average....which, of course, is being sabotaged by a league worst babip. their current AL ranks:

8.1bb% (9th)
20.7k% (9th)
.243avg (13th)
.278babip (15th)

mike - blanco and bonifacio walking shouldn't be a surprise. both have solid 8+ bb% for their careers. what's more surprising is the fact that they haven't walked mire before this.
92-93 - Tuesday, May 21 2013 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#272469) #
In the 9 games since his massively clutch HR vs. TB, Arencibia hasn't done anything outside of a 2r HR up 6-1 vs. SF. You really notice when a guy like him is in a mini slump because he absolutely refuses to change his approach to actually get on base.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 21 2013 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#272470) #
Gomes had a great start for the jays last year too.

and jp had an even better start this year than gomes has had.

the team of cheapo aquisition ex-jays destroying the ball in this year's small sample is pretty hilarious, though.

LF K.Johnson: .833ops
CF A.Rios: .920ops
2B A.Hill: .961ops
C Y.Gomes: .951ops
RF V.Wells: .858ops
DH M.Scutaro:.811ops
3B L.Valbuena: .811ops
1B L.Overbay: .794ops
SS M.Aviles: .798ops
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 21 2013 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#272473) #
uglyone, that's a decent defensive team, too.

Heck, even 36-year-old Michael Young is getting in on the fun, with a nice 299/394/395 rebound season to date.
China fan - Tuesday, May 21 2013 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#272474) #
Imagine if we had been told last year that the Jays would field a lineup in 2013 consisting of KJ, Wells, Overbay, Aviles, Gomes, Valbuena, and whoever else might be available. The reaction here would have been apoplectic.

Just a reminder that nobody knows anything.
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 21 2013 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#272475) #
Most of these player losses are unlikely to be of much consequence in the big picture. Aaron Hill is obviously the big fish that got away, having gone from horrible to brilliant immediately upon his departure.

The Jays have had some nice reclamation projects of their own (Bautista and EE being two huge examples). But it would be nice if they had a couple more success stories, as they've been dining out on those two for a while now.
Wildrose - Tuesday, May 21 2013 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#272479) #
Aaron Hill is obviously the big fish that got away, having gone from horrible to brilliant immediately upon his departure.

I recently finished Jeff Blair's new book, and I quite strongly recommend it. He discussed Aaron Hill at some length and noted that Hill had quietly demanded a trade, which really hasn't been something that until now, is part of the public record. It's pretty hard to keep a guy around who apparently didn't want to be here. It's just another element of managing a team that fans are not always aware of, not everybody is as passionate about the Jays as we the fans are.
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 21 2013 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#272480) #
Stop sitting with the drunk teens upstairs, I guess?

Nope.  100 level down the third base line.  One fan also yelled to Casey Janssen that he should hit Escobar in the head with a pitch.  As Springsteen sang, there's a meanness in this world.  Janssen was, incidentally, very gracious about Escobar- indicating that he was a good teammate and probably reacted to all of the booing. 
Parker - Tuesday, May 21 2013 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#272482) #
Wildrose, does Blair say anything about Hill's reasons for asking to be traded? I am curious, but not enough to buy or read Blair's book after he tried to have my Twitter account suspended for harassing him (two mentions in a year; neither tweet was harassing or offensive but they were both very critical of articles he's written.)
Game thread - 5/20 vs Tampa | 36 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.