Dickey versus CJ Wilson.
Will the tables be turned tonight?
Will the tables be turned tonight?
Coming into tonight's game, the Jays were 67-77 with the league's fifth best offense (4.49 runs per game) and fifth best bullpen. As we've noticed, they also have the league's second worst starting pitching (worse than Houston!). The team's record with the various starters, and how they've been supported by the offense.
Buehrle 18-12 4.21 Dickey 15-15 4.29 Rogers 9-8 4.02 Johnson 4-12 4.28 Happ 5-9 3.89 Redmond 5-8 5.78 Morrow 4-6 5.48 Wang 3-3 5.50 Ortiz 2-2 5.11 Jenkins 2-1 5.45 Romero 0-2 2.00 Laffey 0-1 4.00 Nolin 0-1 6.00
Bonifacio 3/5 last night with two runs scored and a triple. Currently hitting 304/374/392 (13 SB, 1 CS) for KC.
Before last night's game, he was 1 bWAR for KC (112 PA). He was -0.1 bWAR for the Jays (282 PA).
Baseball can be a funny game. Boni has gone from having one of the all-time terrible Jays seasons to All-Star level performance with the Royals (S, but growing, SS).
Before last night's game, he was 1 bWAR for KC (112 PA). He was -0.1 bWAR for the Jays (282 PA).
Baseball can be a funny game. Boni has gone from having one of the all-time terrible Jays seasons to All-Star level performance with the Royals (S, but growing, SS).
Does anyone know if the Jays do exit interviews for departing players? It'd be interesting to know what some of these guys are saying on their way out, especially the ones whose production goes from replacement level to all-star immediately after the Jays organization is no longer in charge of their development.
Nice chart Magpie. It really shows you that this season got derailed because of the injuries/poor performance of Johnson & Morrow. Between Rogers & Happ the 5th slot was more than fine, and the record there would look a bit better with more run support.
Blaming all of the run prevention problems on the starting pitchers is a mistake. Josh Johnson obviously did not pitch well, but his ERA in 81 innings was 6.20, his FIP was 4.62 and his xFIP was 3.60. Over his career, his ERA, his FIP and his xFIP have tracked each other very closely. His opposition BABIP was .356 (career .302). Some of that was due to his own issues- giving up more line drives than usual- and some of it was poor fielding behind him.
Bonifacio was terrible defensively when Johnson pitched. The catchers threw out 1 of 12 baserunners trying to steal...
Bonifacio was terrible defensively when Johnson pitched. The catchers threw out 1 of 12 baserunners trying to steal...
Interesting Magpie. So this years staff, going from most used to least for slots (not about to figure out who was in the #1/2/3/4/5 slots) works out to (30 starts per slot except #5 getting 27)
#1: 18-12 Buehrle
#2: 15-15 Dickey
#3: 12-18 Rogers (9-8) & part of Johnson (3-10)
#4: 11-19 Rest of Johnson (1-2) & Happ (5-9) & Redmond (5-8)
#5: 11-16 Morrow (4-6), Wang (3-3), Ortiz (2-2), Jenkins (2-1), Romero (0-2), Laffey (0-1) and Nolin (0-1)
So the #1/2 slots are OK (97-65 record over 162 games), but #3-5 are all similar to each other and work out to a projected 162 game record of 63-99. Ick.
#1: 18-12 Buehrle
#2: 15-15 Dickey
#3: 12-18 Rogers (9-8) & part of Johnson (3-10)
#4: 11-19 Rest of Johnson (1-2) & Happ (5-9) & Redmond (5-8)
#5: 11-16 Morrow (4-6), Wang (3-3), Ortiz (2-2), Jenkins (2-1), Romero (0-2), Laffey (0-1) and Nolin (0-1)
So the #1/2 slots are OK (97-65 record over 162 games), but #3-5 are all similar to each other and work out to a projected 162 game record of 63-99. Ick.
Some of that was due to his own issues- giving up more line drives than usual- and some of it was poor fielding behind him.
And quite a bit of it was due to all those balls that were hit where only spectators could field them. Morrow, too. That said, this was certainly a horrible defensive team for most of the year and a bad defensive team the rest of the time.
What really struck me about this silly little chart was how the worst pitchers seemed to get the best run support. The team scored an extra run every time Redmond, Morrow, Wang, and Ortiz started. That's a lot of extra offense - scoring about 5.5 runs per game, easily the best run scoring rate in the majors - and it wasn't nearly enough (the team went 14-19 with all that offense.)
And quite a bit of it was due to all those balls that were hit where only spectators could field them. Morrow, too. That said, this was certainly a horrible defensive team for most of the year and a bad defensive team the rest of the time.
What really struck me about this silly little chart was how the worst pitchers seemed to get the best run support. The team scored an extra run every time Redmond, Morrow, Wang, and Ortiz started. That's a lot of extra offense - scoring about 5.5 runs per game, easily the best run scoring rate in the majors - and it wasn't nearly enough (the team went 14-19 with all that offense.)
What really struck me about this silly little chart was how the worst pitchers seemed to get the best run support.
This segues nicely to the topic of post facto "explanations" that routinely get carted out to explain such a thing.
When a team is going with one of their strong starters, one of two things happens: either the hitters relax and hit well, because of the diminished pressure to perform... or ... the hitters don't focus as much as normally, because they don't need to, and their offense suffers.
And when a team is going with one of their weak starters, either the hitters press because they know they have to score a bunch of runs, and thus fail to.. or ... the hitters focus all the more because they know they need to score a bunch of runs, and thus do.
I think all these explanations are malarky, frankly. I recently caught Roger Lajoie's show because I was too lazy to turn my radio off. He argued for one of the above but I can't recall which. I screamed at the radio, but to no avail. He continued his disseration unabated.
topic of post facto "explanations"
Careful, Chuck. Poor Dewey will nearly choke on his cereal and we wouldn't want him to become ex Post.
Careful, Chuck. Poor Dewey will nearly choke on his cereal and we wouldn't want him to become ex Post.
Some perspective.
We live in astounding times. Voyager 1 has exited the solar system. It was launched the same year the Blue Jays were, 1977. When launched it carried an 8-track tape recorder [go for it, Mike] and computers with 240,000 times less memory than a low-end iPhone. It’s now travelled more than 11.7 billion miles! Moreover, NASA “expects Voyager 1 to keep sending back data — with a 23-watt transmitter, about the equivalent of a refrigerator light bulb — until roughly 2025.” The NYT article on this, and the accompanying video, are well worth looking at.
Go to it, wags.
We live in astounding times. Voyager 1 has exited the solar system. It was launched the same year the Blue Jays were, 1977. When launched it carried an 8-track tape recorder [go for it, Mike] and computers with 240,000 times less memory than a low-end iPhone. It’s now travelled more than 11.7 billion miles! Moreover, NASA “expects Voyager 1 to keep sending back data — with a 23-watt transmitter, about the equivalent of a refrigerator light bulb — until roughly 2025.” The NYT article on this, and the accompanying video, are well worth looking at.
Go to it, wags.
Since the calendar switched to September, Ryan Goins is hitting .133/.133/.167 (that would be 4-30.) Reality reasserting itself, no doubt.
I doubt that's reality either, just some regression.
His minor league career suggests there's a chance he could be an average to slightly above average hitter after some adjustment time in the majors. How much adjustment time does he get?
If he can be a little below average hitter, he can be a valuable bench player.
His minor league career suggests there's a chance he could be an average to slightly above average hitter after some adjustment time in the majors. How much adjustment time does he get?
If he can be a little below average hitter, he can be a valuable bench player.
there's a chance he could be an average to slightly above average hitter
Maybe I'm just more pessimistic by nature (a definite possibility), but I see a guy who was old for every level he was at in the minors and did nothing to really stand out. By average hitter I assume you mean average for his position, the bar at second base being lower than overall. But even that looks like a stretch to me. I'd be hoping that he could be a passable enough hitter to warrant his glove carrying his bat.
Maybe I'm just more pessimistic by nature (a definite possibility), but I see a guy who was old for every level he was at in the minors and did nothing to really stand out. By average hitter I assume you mean average for his position, the bar at second base being lower than overall. But even that looks like a stretch to me. I'd be hoping that he could be a passable enough hitter to warrant his glove carrying his bat.
What really struck me about this silly little
chart was how the worst pitchers seemed to get the best run support. The
team scored an extra run every time Redmond, Morrow, Wang, and Ortiz
started. That's a lot of extra offense - scoring about 5.5 runs per
game, easily the best run scoring rate in the majors - and it wasn't
nearly enough (the team went 14-19 with all that offense.)
Isn't some of this due to teams often re-setting their rotations based on things like start-of-season, all-star-break, off days, so that they often line up rotations as 1 vs 1, 2 vs 2, etc? I know we're not involved in any conscious matchups this year, but in years past, IIRC, even during the regular seasons there was some playing with the rotation to match up #1 vs #1, etc..
How often did Buerhle/Dickey pitch against the other teams #1/#2 pitcher, and likewise, how often were Redmond/Wang/Ortiz up against the other team's #4/#5 guys? I would imagine it's no great surprise to anyone here that if we looked at the offense provided by the Jays this year (assuming equal number of games against #1 starters, #2 starters, etc), that more than 1/5 of the offense came against #5 guys, and less than 2/5 of the offense came against #1/#2 guys. I would imagine that for the #3 guy, you might find approx 1/5 and maybe also for the #4 guy..
(and yes, I know I overuse etc :-)
Isn't some of this due to teams often re-setting their rotations based on things like start-of-season, all-star-break, off days, so that they often line up rotations as 1 vs 1, 2 vs 2, etc? I know we're not involved in any conscious matchups this year, but in years past, IIRC, even during the regular seasons there was some playing with the rotation to match up #1 vs #1, etc..
How often did Buerhle/Dickey pitch against the other teams #1/#2 pitcher, and likewise, how often were Redmond/Wang/Ortiz up against the other team's #4/#5 guys? I would imagine it's no great surprise to anyone here that if we looked at the offense provided by the Jays this year (assuming equal number of games against #1 starters, #2 starters, etc), that more than 1/5 of the offense came against #5 guys, and less than 2/5 of the offense came against #1/#2 guys. I would imagine that for the #3 guy, you might find approx 1/5 and maybe also for the #4 guy..
(and yes, I know I overuse etc :-)
Isn't some of this due to teams often re-setting their rotations based on things like start-of-season, all-star-break, off days, so that they often line up rotations as 1 vs 1, 2 vs 2, etc?
Sort of, but not really. Rogers has faced 1 or 2 a lot, and Redmond hasn't. Dickey and Buerhle face the top guys about as often as they face the bottom guys. Based on their ERA+, I sorted the opposing starters into 5 buckets (>122, 108-122, 89-107, 78-88,<78), and counted the starts by each pitcher against each bucket. If I knew how to make a fancy table, I would have made a fancy table, but here is an unfancy table. Stats do not include today's games.
Pitcher #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 Total RS
Dickey 6 7 3 8 7 31 4.29
Buehrle 8 4 7 5 6 30 4.21
Rogers 4 6 4 1 2 17 4.02
Johnson 4 3 3 2 4 16 4.28
Happ 0 4 5 4 2 15 3.89
Redmond 2 1 1 4 2 10 5.78
Morrow 2 1 4 1 2 10 5.48
Wang 1 3 1 0 1 6 5.5
Ortiz 1 1 0 0 2 4 5.11
Jenkins 0 0 1 2 0 3 5.45
Romero 1 1 0 0 0 2 2
Laffey 1 0 0 0 0 1 4
Nolin 0 1 0 0 0 1 6
Total 30 32 29 27 28 146
Buehrle has faced Clay Buchholz twice, Hiroki Kuroda three times and Yu Darvish once. Dickey has faced Iwakuma twice, Sale and Colon, but has also had Barry Zito, Mike Pelfrey and Phil Hughes twice each. Rogers has faced Nolasco, Darvish, Nova, Albers, Verlander, Weaver, Price, Lester and Masterson.
A problem is that according to how I've sorted it, Verlander, Weaver, Price, Lester and Masterson are considered #2 starters, while Nolasco, Nova and Albers are #1s.
Sort of, but not really. Rogers has faced 1 or 2 a lot, and Redmond hasn't. Dickey and Buerhle face the top guys about as often as they face the bottom guys. Based on their ERA+, I sorted the opposing starters into 5 buckets (>122, 108-122, 89-107, 78-88,<78), and counted the starts by each pitcher against each bucket. If I knew how to make a fancy table, I would have made a fancy table, but here is an unfancy table. Stats do not include today's games.
Pitcher #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 Total RS
Dickey 6 7 3 8 7 31 4.29
Buehrle 8 4 7 5 6 30 4.21
Rogers 4 6 4 1 2 17 4.02
Johnson 4 3 3 2 4 16 4.28
Happ 0 4 5 4 2 15 3.89
Redmond 2 1 1 4 2 10 5.78
Morrow 2 1 4 1 2 10 5.48
Wang 1 3 1 0 1 6 5.5
Ortiz 1 1 0 0 2 4 5.11
Jenkins 0 0 1 2 0 3 5.45
Romero 1 1 0 0 0 2 2
Laffey 1 0 0 0 0 1 4
Nolin 0 1 0 0 0 1 6
Total 30 32 29 27 28 146
Buehrle has faced Clay Buchholz twice, Hiroki Kuroda three times and Yu Darvish once. Dickey has faced Iwakuma twice, Sale and Colon, but has also had Barry Zito, Mike Pelfrey and Phil Hughes twice each. Rogers has faced Nolasco, Darvish, Nova, Albers, Verlander, Weaver, Price, Lester and Masterson.
A problem is that according to how I've sorted it, Verlander, Weaver, Price, Lester and Masterson are considered #2 starters, while Nolasco, Nova and Albers are #1s.