Blue Jays 2013 Top Prospects: 20-11

Wednesday, October 23 2013 @ 07:00 AM EDT

Today we look at the prospects rated 20 though 11. For prospects 30-21, click here.

20. Matt Dean | 1B/3B

Matt was drafted by the Blue Jays in the 13th round of the 2011 draft out of high school.  Given his pedigree as a big-time hitter, the Jays gave Matt a 737k over-slot bonus.

In 2012, Matt struggled in his first taste of professional baseball.  But, in 2013 Matt repeated Bluefield and his numbers across the board were much better in comparison to his 2012 stint at Bluefield.  Matt had a high strikeout rate of 24.5% this past season, which is high for Rk league, and needs to be improved.  Expect Matt to start 2014 in Lansing with some of his 2013 Bluefield teammates.

19. Dwight Smith Jr | OF

The 2013 season was Dwight’s first crack at full-season baseball, after spending time in 2012 at short-season Bluefield and Vancouver.    In 2013, Dwight was a late addition to Lansing shortly after the season opened.  Dwight had a promising 2013 season in which he batted a respectable .284/.365/.388,  with 7 home runs, stealing 25 bases to go along with a 10.9% walk rate, and 17.1% strikeout rate.  But one negative stat that stood out was that Dwight struggled in 2013 versus LHP hitting only 196/297/258. 

Given his solid season, expect Dwight to patrol Dunedin’s outfield in 2014 with fellow Lansing teammate Dalton Pompey.

18. Tom Robson | RHP

Tom was selected by the Blue Jays in 2011 as a 4th round pick out of high school in Ladner, British Columbia. Tom had a taste of Bluefield in 2012, and the Blue Jays choose to start Tom in Bluefield again in 2013 after the end of extended spring training. 

Tom pitched well to start the season, as he had an era of 1.38 over 26 innings with Bluefield.  In late July, Tom was promoted to Vancouver to help the Canadians, which happened to be a short-drive from his hometown of Ladner.  Tom was brilliant for the Canadians pitching to an era of 0.94 over 7 starts and 38.1 innings, helping the Canadians to another NWL championship. Across two teams in 2013 Tom was consistent throwing strikes, and maintaining a respectable strikeout rate. 

Given his successful 2013, expect Tom to join a young and exciting rotation in Lansing with Chase DeJong and Shane Dawson. 

17. Matt Smoral | LHP

Smoral was a big “get” for the Jays in the 2012 draft. I’m going to move past the unintentional pun there, and tell you Smoral deserves to be this high in the rankings despite putting together a very uninspiring stat line this past year in the GCL. The attributes at draft time—tall, physical specimen, left-handed, above average fastball with potential for a wipeout breaking ball are still there, and should not be put aside. Smoral remains an incredibly rare talent. But, here we are a full-season and one might legitimately expect a bit more in terms of return for $2 million.

At draft time Smoral had foot issues and it seems as though he’s recovered sufficiently at this time. Mechanically Smoral too was a bit of a mess. His delivery lacked consistency, there were too many moving parts, and he fell off the mound—it needed work. From what I can gather the Jays have really dumbed down the delivery for Smoral—gone is the leg kick and overly dramatic follow-through. His arm action is much cleaner as well. For those interested have a look at his draft video and video from this past season in the GCL—it will underscore to many the mechanical changes prospects need to go through once they hit pro ball.

So where does that leave Smoral? Well, likely back in Florida at least until the short-season teams start playing. Bluefield and hopefully a stint in Vancouver would be a good season for Smoral. Keep an eye on those walks as he goes through.

16. Richard Urena | SS

Urena was the less heralded of the two shortstop prospects signed during the international free agent signing period of 2012. Whereas Franklin Barreto may ultimately move off the position, Urena it is reported, has the tools to play the position as he moves through the system. His first season of professional baseball was encouraging from a number of standpoints. First, the kid walked. Stereotypes mean so much in baseball and for a Dominican bonus baby to walk 33 times in 71 games is encouraging. No Gus Pierre here. Second, while there were few home runs, there was a sizeable number of doubles. The reports at the time of his signing had him as a gap hitter-solid defender. Solid signs then.

Make no mistake though Urena is a long ways away from being anything. Just seventeen, his game is less based on explosive athleticism, and more so based on graceful skill. Those guys take time. As a sixteen year old he was a beanpole and I would imagine his body will need time to adjust to the rigors of professional baseball. I’m sure the Jays will be aware of this and will likely keep him in Florida the entire season. A nice season in extended and some good at-bats in the GCL as an eighteen year-old would be a good statistical season for Urena. The Jays I’m sure will be looking for him to get in to good routines and to start physically maturing.

 
15. AJ Jimenez | C

After watching J.P. Arencibia these past few years—not just this year—A.J. Jimenez should be our number one prospect. Arencibia is so bad. Anyways, Jimenez was drafted out of Puerto Rican high school back in 2008 and has made the steady progression through the ranks to be very close to the Major Leagues. That progression though has not always been smooth and from the candid admissions of Sal Fasano during the season it sounds as though he still has some work to do in the Minor Leagues.

Injuries have been an issue. He had Tommy John in 2012, missed most of that season and played in only 67 games this year with a substantial number of those as a DH. He did feature in the Futures Game this year where he caught a couple innings and showed why he’s considered a solid defensive prospect. Jimenez has hit for average through his minor league career, but has yet to show any substantial power. That’s OK for me if he plays defense and gets on base a bit. His OBP numbers have been solid and he’s by no means a clogger on the base paths. He looks a solid prospect and a full, healthy year at Buffalo would be encouraging for many of us who look forward to the day of saying goodbye to J.P. Arencibia.

14. John Stilson | RHP

Stilson was the only college prospect of note taken by the Jays in the 2011 draft. Drafted in the third round, he was projected to go much higher until a shoulder injury at Texas A&M his junior year caused many teams to take caution. The Jays had draft picks to burn and no concern of coming up against a draft cap. Stilson signed and did not pitch for the Jays in 2011, choosing to rehab his shoulder injury. Stilson began the 2012 campaign in a starting rotation. Sensibly though, he ended in the New Hampshire bullpen. His repertoire—upper 90s fastball and reported plus change-up—are well-suited for a bullpen, as his up-tempo and somewhat jerky delivery.

Stilson had a solid year. He struck out a batter per inning and took to the closing role in Buffalo when Neil Wagner was called up. We’ve been conditioned over these past few years to view prospects as baby-faced teenagers with tons of projection. What you see is probably what you’re going to get with Stilson. Is a he a “prospect” then? Who cares? The Cardinals and Braves have made a killing off drafting college relievers with plus stuff inserting them into pretty dominant bullpens. I think the Jays would do well to strike this balance, and in Stilson they have a pretty good piece to put in a bullpen for a while before money ever becomes an issue. Look for Stilson to get a shot at the big league bullpen out of Spring Training next year and to definitely feature at one point once injuries hit.

13. Chase DeJong | RHP

Chase DeJong was born on December 29, 1993, which almost makes him seem old when compared to Toronto’s collection of young international free agents. A 6’5” 190-pound right-hander out of Woodrow Wilson High School in Long Beach, California, the Blue Jays selected DeJong in the 2nd round of the 2012 draft with the 81st overall pick. With supplemental first-round money, the Jays swayed DeJong out of his commitment to the University of Southern California.

The cousin of former Blue Jays relief pitcher Jordan DeJong, Chase sported an 0.82 ERA (or 1.03, depending on the source) over 76.2 innings in his senior year at high school. He struck out 103 batters and hitters put up a .132 batting average against the right-hander. In his three seasons of high school ball, DeJong threw 199 innings with a 1.80 ERA with 240 strikeouts. He posted similarly impressive numbers at the beginning of his professional career. In 2012, DeJong pitched 12 innings over 6 appearances in the Gulf Coast League. He allowed seven hits and a walk with 15 strikeouts.

DeJong was promoted to Bluefield for the 2013 season where he made 10 starts and three relief appearances. Over 56 innings, DeJong surrendered 58 hits and 10 walks. He struck out 66. He finished tied for 6th overall in the Appalachian League in strikeouts and, among pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched, he finished second in the league in strikeout-to-walk ratio.

DeJong throws a fastball that sits right around 89, but can reach 92. He also has relatively good command of a curveball and a changeup. The curve sits about 75-77 and the changeup is about 5 miles an hour faster. Some of his coaches have called the changeup his best pitch, but he also often gets hard movement on his curve. DeJong possesses relatively clean mechanics and he reportedly has a free and easy motion with a consistent release point. Although he isn’t the most advanced or flashiest prospect, DeJong could continue to rise rapidly up the prospect list as he matures.

12. Alberto Tirado | RHP

Born in December 1994 and signed out of the Dominican Republic for $300,000 in July 2011, Alberto Tirado has adjusted quickly to life in the United States. He won the 2012 R. Howard Webster Award for the Gulf Coast League Blue Jays, even though he was promoted to Bluefield for his last three starts of the year.

Tirado spent all of 2013 with Bluefield, making 8 starts and four relief appearances. Tirado surrendered only nine earned runs in 48.1 innings for a 1.68 ERA. Like many young pitchers, Tirado struggled with his control and walked 20 batters and hit another eight. However, he struck out 44 and only allowed one homer, which was the first he’s surrendered as a professional. Cumulatively, he’s now posted a very impressive 2.15 ERA in 96.1 innings as a professional.

At 6’1” and 180 pounds, Tirado reportedly has a very easy and smooth delivery that generates a lot of arm speed. Tirado’s fastball reportedly sits 91-95 miles per hour with good life that he can command down in the zone. He also throws a changeup and a slider and both are reported to have the potential to be plus pitches. He throws from a low quarters ¾ slot. Some talent evaluators have questioned his ability to maintain that velocity in later innings, but nobody is labeling him for sure as a future reliever yet.

11. Andy Burns | 3B

Andy Burns had a breakout season in 2013.  Burns did not play his final year in college, he was forced to sit after transferring.  Then the Jays selected him in the 11th round of the draft and he picked up 100 at-bats in 2011.  In 2012 he went to lansing but he suffered a hand injury mid way through the year.  In Lansing Burns looked good in the field, playing shortstop and had some decent numbers without getting much notice.

2013 then was Burns first full year playing baseball in three years and he took advantage.  The Jays moved him to third base and sent him to Dunedin where his bat dominated the first half of the season.  Burns OPs was over 900, he played good defence and stole bases.  Mid-season Burns was promoted to New Hampshire where he struggled for a month before finishing strongly.  Burns is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League.

Burns had a couple of challenges confront him in AA.  First he needed to change his approach to get set more quickly to be ready for the better pitchers.  Second, he needed to become more selective, and not to swing at the pitchers best pitch.  Burns seemed to make some progress with his approach at the end of the season although his strikeouts rose to 20%, still not a bad number.

Burns will likely return to AA to start 2014.  In the major leagues third base has been a power position and right now Burns does not profile as a slugger.  However Burns played most of the season as a 22 year old. He has the opportunity to play as a 23 year old in AA for the second time in 2014.  If he can improve his contact ability, keep up the strong defence and speed, there will be a place for him at third base in someone's lineup.

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