Blue Jays 2013 Top Prospects: 10-1

Thursday, October 24 2013 @ 07:01 AM EDT

Welcome to the creme de la creme, the number one through ten prospects.  In case you missed it number 11 through 20 are here, and number 21 to 30 are here.

We hope you enjoyed this top 30 and the hope it brings to the future of the Blue Jays organization. 

10. Dawel Lugo | SS

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2012	17	Rk	170	2	5	2	7	25	5	1	.224	.275	.329
2013	18	Rk	192	11	2	6	5	28	1	0	.297	.317	.469
2013	18	A-	69	4	0	1	1	13	0	0	.246	.257	.348

Signed for $1.3 million in 2011, Dawel Lugo skipped the Dominican Summer League and came straight to the United States. In 2012, his first year in the United States and in professional baseball, Lugo hit .224 with 7 walks and 25 strikeouts in 170 at-bats. However, Lugo’s stats were basically irrelevant, given all the adjustments that the 17-year-old was making.

Lugo played primarily with Bluefield in 2013 before finishing the season with 16 games in Vancouver. With Bluefield, Lugo began to demonstrate the offensive potential that led the Jays to spent seven figures on him. He hit .297 with a .469 slugging percentage and only 28 strikeouts in 192 at-bats. Lugo finished with the eighth-highest slugging percentage in the Appalachian League, while also being the tenth-youngest player in the league.

Lugo was signed as a shortstop, but when he signed it was expected that he would end up at third before too long. However, that expectation has been revisited since Lugo has arrived in the US. While he still may end up at third base because of a lack of lateral quickness, it’s no longer viewed as the certainty it was at the time of his signing by many.

Lugo has very good hand-eye coordination and quick bat speed, but he needs to learn better patience at the plate, as his low walk totals demonstrate. His low walk may be as much as a result of his offensive talents as anything else, as opposed to a simple inability to recognize that the pitch isn’t going to be a strike. Lugo swings at pitches that aren’t strikes when he knows he can hit them. He will need to improve his plate discipline as he progresses through the minors, but he’s quite young and there is a lot of time for him to develop this. Lugo is still several years away, even in a best-case scenario, but he has a potential impact bat if everything breaks right.

9. Kevin Pillar | OF

From the 32nd round of the 2011 amateur draft to the majors in two years, Kevin Pillar beat the odds in 2013. The holder of a NCAA Division II record 54-game hitting streak at California State University, Dominguez Hills in 2010, Pillar received only a $1,000 signing bonus from the Jays. The 6-foot, 200 pound right-handed hitter overcame that slight by winning the Appalachian League batting title in 2011. He was called up to Vancouver for the playoffs and batted .391 to help the Canadians win the first of three straight Northwest League titles. Pillar also became the first Vancouver Canadian to reach Toronto since the two sides began their affiliation in 2011.

The West Hills, California native won the Midwest League’s Most Valuable Player with the Lansing Lugnuts in 2012 and was rated that league’s best hitting prospect by Baseball America. After finishing 2012 in Dunedin, Pillar began 2013 with New Hampshire and was promoted to Buffalo after posting an Eastern League leading 95 hits at the time of his call-up. His time with the Herd resulted in a 76 point spike in his isolated slugging percentage from his stint with the Fisher Cats with a .194 mark thanks to 27 extra-base hits.

Pillar was called up to Toronto August 14 after Colby Rasmus suffered a strained oblique. Pillar endured a 0-for-17 skid to begin his big league career before getting a single against Phil Hughes at Yankee Stadium August 20. His first homer came in Houston off Brad Peacock four days later but he needed help from instant replay to complete his journey around the bases after his hit was originally ruled a double. However, Pillar had trouble making contact as he struck out over a quarter of the time in the bigs, nearly double the rate in Buffalo and triple the rate in New Hampshire. He was not as proficient in stealing bases, going 23-for-36 in 2013 and getting caught in his only attempt in Toronto.

Praised for his work ethic and his ability to play all three outfield positions, Pillar has put himself in the outfield mix for Toronto in 2014. He will turn 25 years old on January 4th.

8. DJ Davis | OF

When the Jays drafted DJ Davis 17th overall in the 2012 draft, they knew that he was a young-gifted athlete that would take a few years to fine-tune.  DJ signed shortly after the 2012 draft for an under-slot bonus of 1.75 million, which allowed him to get 228 AB’s across three Blue Jays minor-league affiliates.  

Despite finishing 2012 in Vancouver, the Jays choose to start DJ in Bluefield again in 2013.  In his second go-around in Bluefield, he had a respectable line of 240/323/418.  While his strikeout rate remained high at 29.5%, DJ maintained a respectable walk rate of 10.1%.  Surprisingly DJ had only 13 stolen bases in 2013, which was much lower to the 25 he had in 2012.  Perhaps the Jays told DJ to not worry about stealing bases, and concentrate more on his hitting.

Highlighted in Batter’s Box’s “Prospects to Watch” feature last year, Mitch Nay has perhaps made the biggest gain of any player in the club’s prospect rankings list. Drafted in the supplemental first round of the 2012 draft at 58th overall, the Jays were able to dissuade the product of Hamilton High School in Chandler, Arizona out of his commitment to Arizona State.

Going into the draft, Nay was ranked 42nd overall by EPSN despite a rather thin resume for a pick in the first couple of rounds. Nay was unable to participate in the national showcase tour due to a broken left hamate bone and a strained lower back, but had strong junior and senior seasons at his high school.

While he didn’t play in 2012, Nay spent 2013 in Bluefield where he hit an even .300 with 11 doubles and 6 home runs. He posted a .364 on-base percentage and a .426 slugging percentage. For players with over 100 plate appearances, Nay’s .790 OPS was second on the club.

He is said to possess strong power to all fields with quick wrists and good bat speed. Going into the draft it was reported that Nay generated real power when he opened up his swing early, but that this left him particularly vulnerable to breaking pitches away, so that is something fans will have to watch to see how it develops. Baseball America described him as having a “70 bat” and ranked him as the fourth best prospect in the Appalachian League mainly on the strength of his offensive potential.

Defensively, Nay is still a work in progress at third. He was able to compensate for his rudimentary fielding in high school with his strong arm, but he won’t be able to do that to the same degree as a professional. Some people speculated going into the draft that his future was in right field, due to his awkward footwork and strong arm, but the Jays have been working on his fielding and it’s not clear yet will have to move. In fact, Baseball America reported at the end of the season that he should be able to stay at third base.

6. Franklin Barreto | SS

Considered to be the top international free agent of 2012 after signing for $1.45-million out of Venezuela, Franklin Barreto lived up to the hype in his first season in the U.S. The 5-foot-9 right-handed hitting shortstop led the Gulf Coast League in slugging percentage at .529 and in extra-base hits with 26. His isolated slugging average was an impressive .230. He struggled with the stick in a late-season promotion to Bluefield, striking out nearly 25 percent of the time and his walk rate was almost chopped in half in the Appalachian League. His BABIP also fell 100 points from .375 to .275. Barreto has drawn praise for his quick hands and compact, line-drive stroke. Baseball America believes he could develop 15-20 homer power in time.

It’s been suggested that Barreto will not stick at shortstop and will have to eventually move to center field to take advantage of his speed. His performance with the glove did nothing to dispel that notion as he committed 28 errors , 19 of them in the GCL. The winner of the R. Howard Webster Award for the GCL Blue Jays and Baseball America’s number five prospect for that league, Barreto may be back with Bluefield to start 2014 and may see time with Vancouver before the year is out.  He will celebrate his 18th birthday on February 26.

5. Daniel Norris | LHP

What a difference a few months make. At the end of April, Norris had a high ERA coming after a 2012 that was below expectations. But then something clicked, by all reports it was a conversation between Norris and Vince Horsman, the Lansing pitching coach. From May to the end of the season Norris put up excellent numbers. Here are two pitchers numbers in Lansing:

A 8.8 H/9; 4.6 BB/9; 10.4 K/9

B 6.4 H/9; 5.1 BB/9; 9.7 K/9

Pitcher A has a better K rate and a lower walk rate. However, pitcher A gave up more hits. If I tell you that pitcher A had a H/9 of 6.9 from June through the end of the season you might recognize that pitcher A is Daniel Norris. Pitcher B is Aaron Sanchez. Many prospect watchers consider Aaron Sanchez to be the Jays number one or two prospect whereas Norris seems to be much less highly regarded.

Norris is a lefty who can throw 94-95. Norris has four pitches including a good change-up and a curveball and slider, both of which need some work. Look for Norris in Dunedin next season as he continues his development.

4. Sean Nolin | LHP

Sean Nolin gets no respect. Yes we have him as a #4 prospect but many dismiss him as a #5 pitcher in a rotation. Many dismissed Shaun Marcum for similar reasons. Nolin has demonstrated an ability to manage the strike zone. His K rate is excellent and he walks very few. Nolin features a fastball that sits 89-92 mph with a plus change-up, and two breaking balls.  Many pitching prospects get measured on "stuff".  On stuff, Nolin is average.  Less often pitching prospects get measured on ability to hit their spots.  There is always the worry that the ability to hit spots will fail at the major league level.  To date Nolin's strikeout rate suggests he can hit his spots.

Nolin was roughed up in his one major league start and he was just OK in three AAA starts. But Nolin is still just 23 and should pitch in Buffalo next season as a 24 year old, on track for a routine arrival in the big leagues.  Nolin is currently pitching in winter ball and will likely head to Buffalo when the season starts.  There Nolin will look to refine his command to show he can hit his spots and that he deserves another shot at the major leagues.

3. Roberto Osuna | RHP

At the tender age of 18, Roberto was assigned to Lansing after a strong 2012 in which he dominated with Bluefield and Vancouver.  Roberto started the season on fire; he pitched 22.1 innings with an era of 3.63 with 4 walks and 31 strikeouts before elbow issues caused Roberto to take roughly 6 weeks off to rest his elbow. 

Upon returning in early June, Roberto had adjusted his pitching delivery to relieve the stress in his elbow.  The results were not pretty as Roberto had an era of 7.65 over 5 starts and 20 innings pitched.  Roberto went on the DL again in early May, before eventually undergoing Tommy-John surgery in late July.

Despite the recent surgery, Roberto has a bright future, and will be among the Jays top prospects for years to come.

2. Aaron Sanchez | RHP

There is a lot weighing on the shoulders of Aaron Sanchez and a lot of the weight comes from the front office.  A year ago the Jays had three hot pitching prospects in Lansing, over the winter the three became one and Sanchez became the untouchable, the guy the front office wouldn't deal.  The hopes of three prospects now blended into one.  Sanchez has the pitches to carry the load, a fastball that can hit 100 while sitting 94-96.  A change-up that is major league ready and a breaking ball, or balls, that Sanchez is still trying to refine.  Just based on his arsenal Sanchez is one of the top pitching prospects in the majors.

But there are a couple of issues that as of today are holding Sanchez back.  The first is control, Sanchez walks too many hitters.  His walk rate was 4.2 this year in Dunedin, better than the 5.1 he put up in 2012 in Lansing, but he still needs to shave another digit off it.  Keith Law has raised questions about Sanchez's delivery, wondering if it is contributing to his poor command.  Sanchez's command drops with runners on base, an issue he has to fix in the minor leagues.  Secondly, Sanchez seems content on the mound, he has the pitches to get him out of most of the trouble he causes, he rarely gets beaten up, his ERA is low.  The only issue sanchez faces from his control issues is not pitching deep into games.  Sanchez is currently pitching in the AFL facing mostly AA hitters and he will see many of them next year in AA.  At some point Sanchez will face adversity and then he needs to develop that toughness, the recognition that talent alone will not make him a star.  If he finds that toughness, that extra gear, it will help him fix his command, not give in, and become the #1 pitcher that he is capable of being. 

1. Marcus Stroman | RHP

Marcus Stroman didn’t let a 50 game suspension for using a performance enhancing substance (methylhexaneamine) get in the way of a productive 2013 campaign. The 5-foot-9 hurler, who signed for a $1.8-million bonus after being drafted 22nd overall in the 2012 draft, spent the entire year in New Hampshire after his first stint there was cut short by his suspension last year. After beginning his pro career as a reliever with Vancouver and New Hampshire in 2012, Stroman made the transition to starting with the Fisher Cats. He had four starts of 10-plus strikeouts, reaching 13 twice. The Duke University product put behind a rough August behind him (4.88 earned run average) by pitching eight shutout innings, striking out 11 and walking no one against Binghamton September 2. Stroman expressed his displeasure about not being called up to Toronto after that performance through Twitter. Making it doubly frustrating for the diminutive hurler was that he was in line to get to Baseball North last year before his untimely suspension. Some observers had him pegged to be the first player to reach the majors from the 2012 draft.

Stroman is said to have two plus offerings with a fastball in the 92-96 mile per hour range and a slider around 80-87. Baseball America rated his slider as the best in the Jays system and is considered one of the best in the minors. He is working on an 82-85 MPH changeup, a high 80’s cutter and a curveball to enhance his repertoire as a starter. Stroman, who also played second base in college, is said to have a smooth, compact delivery and follow through which allows him to field his position. His Achilles heel has been the long ball, as he has trouble staying on top of his fastball and keeping it down in the zone.

Barring injury, Stroman should get to Toronto in 2014. The question remains whether he’ll start or relieve. His projected ceiling is a mid-rotation starter or set-up man. He will turn 23 May 1st.

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