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My yearly bible finally found its way to my door! The Baseball America 2014 Prospect Handbook has compiled its top 30 prospects for all 30 major league teams. The Toronto Blue Jays farm system is right in the middle of the pack according to BA - ranking 15th out of 30 teams - a drop of three spots from 2013.



Mitch Nay made the biggest leap in the Top 30 rankings, jumping 20 spots from last year to rank as the Jays' fourth best prospect in 2014.


Baseball America assigns a numerical grade based on the traditional 20-80 scouting scale:
  • 75-80 Franchise players/number one starters.
  • 65-70 Perennial All-Stars/number two starters.
  • 55-60 First division regular/number three starters/closers.
  • 45-50 Second division regulars/number four starters/eighth inning relievers.
  • 35-40 Number five starters/utility players/backup catchers/relievers.
BA also assigns a risk factor grade:
  • Safe - player is ready to contribute in the bigs and has shown a realistic ceiling.
  • Low - player is likely to reach his ceiling and become a big leaguer.
  • Medium - player still has some tools to sharpen.
  • High - player is a first year draft pick.
  • Extreme - teenager in rookie ball or a player with significant history of injuries.

No.# Player Position Grade     Risk 2013 Rank
1
Aaron Sanchez
RHP
65
High
3
2
Marcus Stroman
RHP
55
Medium
5
3
D.J. Davis
OF
60
Extreme
6
4
Mitch Nay
3B
55
High
24
5
Franklin Barreto
SS
60
Extreme
13
6
Daniel Norris
LHP
55
High
9
7
Roberto Osuna
RHP
55
High
4
8
Alberto Tirado
RHP
60
Extreme
15
9
Dawel Lugo
SS
55
Extreme
26
10
Sean Nolin
LHP
45
Low
19
11
Chase DeJong
RHP
55
Extreme
22
12
Jairo Labourt
LHP
55
Extreme
28
13
Matt Smoral
LHP
55
Extreme
9
14
A.J. Jimenez
C
50
Medium
11
15
Clinton Hollon
RHP
55
Extreme
NR
16
Tom Robson
RHP
50
High
NR
17
Dalton Pompey
OF
50
High
NR
18
Rowdy Tellez
1B
55
Extreme
NR
19
Andy Burns
3B/2B
50
High
NR
20
Kevin Pillar OF
45
Low
21
21
John Stilson
RHP
45
Medium
7
22
Kenny Wilson
OF
45
High
NR
23
Santiago Nessy
C
50
Extreme
14
24
Richard Urena
SS
50
Extreme
NR
25
Matt Dean
1B
50
Extreme
17
26
Miguel Castro
RHP
50
Extreme
NR
27
Dwight Smith Jr.
OF
45
High
16
28
Jake Brentz
LHP
50
Extreme
NR
29
Ryan Goins
2B/3B
40
Low
NR
30
Yeltsin Gudino
SS
50
Extreme
NR


The 31st rated prospect in the Jays system is Venezuelan righthander Adonys Cardona. Prospects who dropped out of last year's top 30 include outfielder Anthony Alford, who ranked 10th, as he continues to show more interest in playing football instead of baseball. Righties Tyler Gonzales (12th), righty Chad Jenkins (18th) and Deck McGuire (20th) also missed the cut along with infielders Christian Lopes (23) and Dickie Joe Thon (25). Right Yeyfrey Del Rosario (29th) and Chris Hawkins (30th) round out the fallen prospects.

Looking ahead to 2014, Baseball America believes righthander John Stilson will be the club's top rookie, fellow righty Miguel Castro is being tabbed as the breakout prospect this year and is predicting that yet another righty, Patrick Murphy, the club's third round pick in the 2013 draft, will be the sleeper prospect.



Lefthander Jairo Labourt also reached new heights in this year's Top 30 list, going from 28th last year to the Jays' 12th best prospect.


BA writers also ranked their personal top 50 prospects overall. John Manuel ranked righthander Aaron Sanchez 34th. Sanchez and righty Marcus Stroman were rated 46th and 47th respectively by Matt Eddy. J.J. Cooper had Sanchez at 38 and Stroman at 47. Ben Badler ranked Stroman 34th.

With the most promising prospects in the lower levels of the farm system, the Jays brass hope those players continue to progress up the minor league ladder in 2014. They hope to add to their talent base with the 9th and 11th overall picks (for failing to sign righty Phil Bickford last year) in this year's amateur draft.
Baseball America's Top 30 Jays Prospects For 2014 | 18 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
John Northey - Wednesday, February 19 2014 @ 08:39 AM EST (#282648) #
Last years list is here
75-80 players: none either year
65-70: 1 this year, none last year
55-60: 10 last year (including d'Arnaud & Syndergaard) vs 13 this year
45-50: 20 last year (including Wuilmer Becerra) vs 15 this year
35-40: none last year vs 1 this year (Ryan Goins)

Funny that the lowest ranked player in either year was the one guy who might be a regular this year (assuming d'Arnaud is injured again).  Very surprised to see more highly ranked players this year vs last even including d'Arnaud/Syndergaard.

As to risk...
Extreme: 9 last year vs 15 this year
High: 15 last year vs 9 this year
Medium: 6 last year vs 3 this year
Low: 0 last year vs 3 this year (Nolin, Pillar, Goins 45/45/40)

Interesting. The extreme vs high flipped year over year (in a negative way) while medium was cut in half with 3 lower level potentials being low risk.  Not much of a shock though as higher level prospects at lower levels should be high risk.
Mike Green - Wednesday, February 19 2014 @ 09:10 AM EST (#282649) #
BA's scale is (OK, I'll try to be extremely diplomatic) ridiculously unbalanced as between starting pitchers and position players.  If 65-70 is "Perennial All-Stars/#2 starters", we have a problem.  Lou Whitaker is a perennial All-Star but not a franchise player.  Dan Petry is a #2 starter.  There is no equivalence.  Having a ceiling of #2 starter with extreme risk is in reality a mediocre prospect.  Fortunately, Sanchez is not that.  From all accounts, Sanchez has a chance to be the best pitcher in the league but (of course) the chance of that is small. 

I really have no interest in BA's ratings, as they seem bound up in misunderstandings about value.  It is only the description of strengths and weaknesses of a prospect that are interesting.

Mike Green - Wednesday, February 19 2014 @ 10:16 AM EST (#282651) #
And, incidentally, if one feels that A.J. Jimenez risk is "medium", one hasn't really understood very much about the game.  He is a catcher.  He has had TJ surgery.  He is 24 years old.  He did not hit enough in double A last year to be anything but a backup catcher. 

I like Jimenez, but even a healthy, hot-hitting 21 or 22 year old catcher in double A is a medium risk. 

Ryan Day - Wednesday, February 19 2014 @ 10:42 AM EST (#282653) #
I think the "medium risk" element of Jimenez is that even if he doesn't hit or develop much, he's still probably an ok backup catcher, both because his defence is good and the bar is fairly low. Even if his ceiling is low, Jimenez may be more likely than anyone else on the list to have a 5-10 year MLB career.
Mike Green - Wednesday, February 19 2014 @ 10:55 AM EST (#282654) #
He may very well have a 5-10 year major league career as a backup catcher, starting at age 28.  If one is rating a prospect, that doesn't tell you anything at all. 

His value is tied up in the possibility that he takes a small step forward from his pre-TJ (2010-2011) offensive performance, i.e. that he becomes roughly Manny Sanguillen. 

John Northey - Wednesday, February 19 2014 @ 12:12 PM EST (#282655) #
AJ's potential value to us and the Jays is based on him having a high potential.  But BA's ratings have him as 'second division regular' which is a diplomatic way of saying 'backup unless on a crappy team'.  His risk of not being even that would be 'medium' and that makes sense as he is strong defensively from all reports and should hit enough to be a reasonable backup who might get a year or two of starting when a teams regular catcher is hurt.  That is what BA sees him as with little chance of being more.

Sanchez, on the other hand, they see as having the potential to be a 120 ERA+ starter on a regular basis but there is a high risk he doesn't make it happen.  Stroman has only a medium risk of not being around a 100 ERA+ starter and that seems to fit the narrative we've been getting.

What would be interesting is to see these lists from a decade ago as those players will have made it/not made it by now.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, February 19 2014 @ 12:25 PM EST (#282657) #
Thus far the offseason has proven these prospects have little trade value. They also have little value for the big club. Perhaps a year or two more might make a difference.
John Northey - Wednesday, February 19 2014 @ 01:34 PM EST (#282658) #
The value tends to be at the end - like d'Arnaud when he was at AAA.  Players lower than that require bulk and quality to get anything.  Prospects are a lot like lottery tickets.  High end ones in the low minors are like Lotto Max - giant potential but lots of failure. The closer to the majors the more they become like a coin toss, 50-50 odds of winning.  And if they are really showing a lot then your odds can jump but never to 100%.

For example, #1 overall draft picks - from 1965 to 2011 (2012/2013 haven't reached and I won't count them as too soon) you have 47 picks with 44 making the majors for at least a cup of coffee (3 who missed are Matt Bush for the Padres in 2004 (Justin Verlander picked #2), Brien Taylor for the Yankees in 1991 (Manny Ramirez the best of that round at #13 followed by Shawn Green at #16) and Steven Chilcott for the Mets in 1966 (Reggie Jackson picked #2).  So even the best draft slot can fail, although rarely and normally due to a dumb choice (can give the Yanks a mulligan as the #2 and #3 picks didn't reach 1 WAR and of the top 10 picks 5 had negative career WAR's and Joey Hamilton had the best WAR of the group at 14.6).
Lugnut Fan - Wednesday, February 19 2014 @ 03:55 PM EST (#282659) #
Mike, I have to say you sure conjure up a ton of childhood memories for me when you relate things to the 84 Tigers.  Haha.
Mike Green - Wednesday, February 19 2014 @ 04:00 PM EST (#282660) #
Great club, and a lot more fun for a Blue Jay fan to acknowledge it than to revisit 1987.  Hard to believe that it was 30 years ago...
bpoz - Saturday, February 22 2014 @ 12:00 PM EST (#282755) #
Who is Yeltsin Gudino?
PeterG - Saturday, February 22 2014 @ 01:38 PM EST (#282759) #
Gudino is a Venezuelan ss signed in 2013 for about 1.2 mil......was ranked 8th best international prospect by BA
ayjackson - Saturday, February 22 2014 @ 09:17 PM EST (#282780) #
Gerry, are you going to take a stab at updating the minor league depth chart this spring?
Gerry - Sunday, February 23 2014 @ 08:31 AM EST (#282786) #
Probably, not 100%, trying to find the time.
bpoz - Sunday, February 23 2014 @ 11:01 AM EST (#282790) #
Thanks Peter G. I just went through all the Jays transactions that I could find and I could not find him.
It is good to know that they got a good player. I would guess that the 8th best Intl Youngster was signed in that summer signing time period.
So who else was signed? My easy guess was some hard throwing pitchers.
PeterG - Sunday, February 23 2014 @ 12:27 PM EST (#282793) #
for Bpoz::

The other highly rated signing last summer was Freddy Rodriguez, a Venezuelan of. There were 12 others inked, mostly from the DR. Generally, the Jays tend to balance international signings between position players (maybe a few more) and pitchers whereas they draft primarily pitching. The team did receive extra allocation money in a recent trade with the Angels and signed Dominican pitcher Hansel Rodriguez..  International signings are a strength  in the organization imo..

ayjackson - Sunday, February 23 2014 @ 11:22 PM EST (#282807) #
"trying to find the time"

I understand that. Thanks.
bpoz - Monday, February 24 2014 @ 05:50 PM EST (#282844) #
Thanks PeterG. I look forward to seeing them develop.
Baseball America's Top 30 Jays Prospects For 2014 | 18 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.