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The Jays have played ten games under the roof to start the season, that ends tonight with a trip into Baltimore. The Jays face Chris Tillman, Bud Norris and Ubaldo Jimenez. That is one tough match-up and two more favourable ones. Tillman was the O's opening day starter and pitched well last time out. Noriis and Jimenez have not pitched as well and Ubaldo has not lived up to his contract, yet.

The Jays counter with Dustin McGowan, Drew Hutchison and Mark Buehrle. Both McGowan and Hutchison are coming off poor starts and looking to right the ship before Happy Happ shows up.



The Orioles added Nelson Cruz over the winter as thie rother big free agent signing and Delmon Young as a big signing for other reasons. Young might only start against Buehrle. The Orioles are without Manny Machado and JJ Hardy is day to day. Matt Weiters has hit well in the first week as has Cruz. Chris Davis is hitting .300 but doesn't have a home run yet. Rookie Jonathan Schoop hit his first major league home run off Tanaka this week.

This is a series that the Jays could easily win two of three. It could come down to getting McGowan and Hutchison to pitch weel.

This series has two 7:05 games and a 1:35 game on Sunday. There is rain in the forecast for Friday night.

Jays at Orioles - Series Thread | 174 comments | Create New Account
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uglyone - Friday, April 11 2014 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#284584) #
This series is all about mcgowan and hutch.

A bounceback game for them would give us a good chance at taking the series and have us breathing easy about the rotation going forward.

Another bad outing, though, and we're not only likely losing the series but panic bells will start ringing, and Happ comes right back into the picture.
scottt - Friday, April 11 2014 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#284589) #
Except for the 2 substitutes,  all the Orioles are hitting pretty well and Tillman keeps improving.
uglyone - Friday, April 11 2014 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#284590) #
Good signs from Dusty thru 3. His stuff looks filthy as always, but he's got more command tonight.

he's not dominant per se but he looks real good so far, and is twice thru the heart of their order now.
greenfrog - Friday, April 11 2014 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#284591) #
The Jays probably shouldn't make a habit of relying on opponents' errors as their primary means of scoring runs.

That said, I'm sure they'll take it...
greenfrog - Friday, April 11 2014 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#284592) #
Sizemore hitting 310/375/586 for Boston. Pretty nice pickup for $750K.
greenfrog - Friday, April 11 2014 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#284593) #
Lawrie had an OPS+ of -5 going into tonight (-0.4 fWAR / -0.6 bWAR for the season). He has since gone 0 for 3. On the plus side, he just had a decent swing on a Tillman FB, flying out to deep centre.
Mike Green - Friday, April 11 2014 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#284594) #
Sweet pitching by Cecil. 
uglyone - Friday, April 11 2014 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#284595) #
santos is ridiculous.
greenfrog - Friday, April 11 2014 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#284596) #
Dynamite outing by the bullpen.
uglyone - Friday, April 11 2014 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#284597) #
congrats to mcG for his first win in 6yrs.

he wasn't super sharp but his stuff is still near impossible to square up. he was actually nastier last time out aside from that whole pitch tipping thing. he's got a tidy 4.00era and a 3.46fip now to start the year. that'll do.

and just pure filth from Cecil and Santos. if our relievers get healthy our 'pen will be absolutely dominant.
scottt - Friday, April 11 2014 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#284598) #
I guess the pitching switcheroo worked out OK in the end.

This was like a little league game, best infield defense wins.

Mike Green - Friday, April 11 2014 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#284599) #
With Machado out and Nelson Cruz in the outfield, the O's defence is obviously not what it was last year.  Putting the ball in play has its rewards now. 
finch - Friday, April 11 2014 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#284600) #
AWESOME to see McGowen win tonight. Love his determination.

A couple thoughts from me. First, it's driving me nuts that the Blue Jays aren't bunting when there's such a dramatic shift. For example, Ryan Goins is down 0-2 and Baltimore shifts all of their infield to SS and beyond to 1B. You have a HUGE area to lay the bunt down past the pitcher. Take the chance. Bunt it foul and hey, you're out but batting .050 on the season, why not take a chance.

Secondly, I get the gut feeling that if the Jays are leading into the 7th, they'll win 95% of their games with a bullpen featuring Santos, Janssen, Cecil and Delibar. It was like the Yankees many many years ago with a bullpen of Wettland and Rivera. Lights out! Glad they didn't pull the trigger on the Santos deal in the offseason for Anderson. Thank goodness for team physicals.
Richard S.S. - Friday, April 11 2014 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#284601) #
Does J.A. Happ have a place on this team anymore? I can't see any upcoming changes in this Staff. Even Hutchison will have a longer rope than would be expected. Hutch won't learn anything in AAA that he wouldn't learn here.
John Northey - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 01:19 AM EDT (#284603) #
Hitting another option issue with Happ once he is off the DL I suspect.  After 2 starts for all but Dickey who has 3 we see all 5 have a win with Buehrle having 2. Just 2 walks each for McGowan, Morrow, and Buehrle while Dickey has 10 and Hutch 6.  After this start only Hutch has any risk due to his poor outing vs the Yankees but the 5 1/3 shutout innings vs Tampa Bay will give him a bit of slack.

What about the pen?  Santos & Cecil are lights out, Rogers/Delabar/Loup haven't done enough to be demoted, Redmond is pure long relief and Wagner was just called up and very effective when used so far as has been Redmond.  No one there really screams 'send me down'.  Ideally you keep Happ in AAA and call him up when someone is hurt.  Otherwise they should be looking for a trading partner who is desperate for a starter.
China fan - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 03:01 AM EDT (#284604) #
Happ is the perfect 6th starter at this point, and that's a valuable thing for the Jays to have. There's always a high risk of injury in any rotation, and the Jays have a capable replacement if a starter gets injured. That's something they often lacked in the past. (Stroman and Nolin might be almost ready for the majors, but Happ has the experience to make him a more reliable replacement in an injury situation. Redmond is the other option; but if Redmond goes into the rotation, Happ goes into the bullpen as his long-relief replacement.)

I'm not sure about the MLB rules on injury-rehab stints. How long can the Jays continue to keep Happ on his alleged "rehab" stint at Buffalo? Can they spin it out for a few more weeks? If not, they'll have to find a way to squeeze him into the bullpen -- or persuade him to waive his right to reject a demotion.

As for the idea of trading Happ: only if the return is significant. Or if the Jays could use the money (his salary) to acquire a significant player. If they can trade him to upgrade at 2B, yes, do it. But don't dump him for a C prospect if the money is going to go straight into the owners' pockets.
China fan - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 03:18 AM EDT (#284606) #
The encouraging thing about the Jays rotation is that each of the five starters has had at least one very strong game so far, in the very early going. We'll see how Hutchison does today, but each starter has shown enough potential to suggest that this could be a very good rotation over the course of a full season. When was the last time the Jays had 3 shutouts at such an early stage of the season?

As for the hitting: why are the Jays still carrying 3 catchers? So many people on this site are outraged when the Jays carry 8 relievers, but why is nobody objecting to 3 catchers? I'm hoping that Kratz is on the team partly so that he can continue to do bullpen sessions with Dickey and get better acquainted with his knuckleball, so that Thole can be demoted. Or demote Kratz instead, but it doesn't make sense to have 3 catchers on this team. Demote one of them and bring up Francisco and it's a stronger bench and a better-hitting team.
China fan - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 04:04 AM EDT (#284607) #
One final thought: demote Goins, bring up Kawasaki?
Jonny German - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 07:40 AM EDT (#284608) #
"As for the hitting: why are the Jays still carrying 3 catchers? So many people on this site are outraged when the Jays carry 8 relievers, but why is nobody objecting to 3 catchers?"

For me, it's a matter of an 8th reliever generally being useless in principle - a competent manager with a talented pitching staff should be able to keep everybody suitably rested with 7 relievers (and quite possibly with 6 relievers). But an extra bat can always come in handy, particularly when you're thin in overall bench talent. And at the moment all 3 catchers have clear roles - Thole starts with Dickey, Navarro starts against RH and DHs against LH, Kratz starts against LH and pinch hits for Thole. And it's not like there's someone in Buffalo who's banging down the door to replace one of them - Francisco is potentially a good asset but he's entirely redundant with Adam Lind (as long as Brett Lawrie is healthy).
Dave Till - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 08:16 AM EDT (#284609) #
Great to see McGowan pitch so well. Both he and Morrow looked good in their last starts. The starting pitching might not be a black hole after all.

Goins is a better fielder than Kawasaki - at this point, with the starters still finding their feet, I'd rather have the better infield defense. If Izturis crashes and burns, I'd bring Kawasaki up to replace him.

Paul D - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#284611) #
CF, I suspect Goins is going down in 5 days or so anyways, when Reyes comes back. 
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#284612) #
But an extra bat can always come in handy, particularly when you're thin in overall bench talent. And at the moment all 3 catchers have clear roles - Thole starts with Dickey, Navarro starts against RH and DHs against LH, Kratz starts against LH and pinch hits for Thole.

Yeah, it offers some nice flexibility -- Navarro can play every day and Sierra doesn't have to play at all.
uglyone - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#284614) #
The reason noone's complaining about the catchers yet is because they're all hitting.
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#284615) #
The reason noone's complaining about the catchers yet is because they're all hitting.

Yeah, that's probably the best answer.
uglyone - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#284616) #
"What about the pen? Santos & Cecil are lights out, Rogers/Delabar/Loup haven't done enough to be demoted, Redmond is pure long relief and Wagner was just called up and very effective when used so far as has been Redmond. No one there really screams 'send me down'."

IMO rogers is screaming that at the top of his lungs.


Jays RP, this year plus last year (min. 10ip):

1. Santos 30.0ip, 1.80era, 1.67fio, 2.42xfip
2. Janssen 52.2ip, 2.56era, 2.74fip, 3.09xfip
3. Cecil 65.2ip, 2.60era, 2.76fip, 2.88xfip
4. Loup 73.2ip, 2.57era, 3.37fip, 3.41xfip
5. Delabar 62.2ip, 3.30era, 2.71fip, 3.40xfip
6. Wagner 40.0ip, 3.60 era, 3.93fip, 3.43xfip
7. Redmond 14.0ip, 1.93era, 3.77fip, 4.29xfip

8. Jenkins 18.1ip, 1.96era, 3.81fip, 3.96xfip
9. Storey 4.0ip, 6.75era, 0.80fip, 3.19xfip
10. Jeffress 13.2ip, 3.29era, 3.89fip, 3.43xfip
11. Rogers 37.1ip, 4.58era, 5.25fip, 4.87xfip
12. Lincoln 31.2ip, 3.98era, 5.48fip, 5.91xfip
92-93 - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#284617) #
If Kratz can handle a corner OF spot in a pinch I'd prefer to see Dan Johnson on the bench over Moises Sierra. It'd be nice to have a good hitter on the bench who you could bring in late in the game for the middle infield. Heck, I'd probably PH for Lawrie too with Johnson when they're trailing.

I want to give a shout out to Gibby's managing thus far. Every night I see people griping on Twitter about why it's the wrong time for Gibbons to be pulling his starter, some saying too late while others are saying it's too early. For the most part I think he's done a stupendous job of putting his players in the best position to win the game. I just wish AA would make his job a little easier by constantly giving him fresh arms to work with in the back of the bullpen. There's really no reason to be shorthanded for a game when the AAA team is in Buffalo and you have essentially interchangeable talent with options.
AWeb - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#284618) #
There are several reasons you don't use Buffalo and callups/demotions like an excuse to have a 12 man bullpen:

1. Players who make the big leagues and have performed well aren't going to look too fondly on an organization that demotes them because they did their job (i.e., pitched innings from the bullpen when called upon).
2. Buffalo has to be able to rely on players and a bullpen too. Screwing over your AAA affiliate to gain marginal improvements, constantly, won't go well. Do the Jays call Buffalo's manager every day and give him a list of guys not to use, in case they want to call them up the next day? Or mid-game, if a starter is getting shelled in Toronto, is Buffalo supposed to shift it's own strategy to reflect that? Imagine running a bullpen for not only your team, but hypothetical daily future issues of another team.
3. Unlike many fans on this board, 95% of Jays fans would like to cheer for a group of players they recognize, at least in-season.
4. Buffalo might be close, but it's still bringing players in on the road on short notice, which isn't an ideal situation.

Now, there are times when you should use AAA to refresh a tired bullpen. But this hasn't been the case yet. An 8 man pen should never have to refresh itself if everyone is healthy, aside from the occasional doubleheader or 18 inning game at a bad time. You run the AAA shuttle to address roster emergencies (injuries, unusual games/schedules) or make changes you have at least some intention of sticking with, not day-to-day convenience.

PeterG - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#284619) #
We are using a 7 man pen now but I can see it going to 8 when Happ and Janssen return. I would prefer the extra pitcher to Kratz picking up splinters at the end of the bench. There is also more bench flexibility if Diaz is on the roster.
Chuck - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#284620) #
Great to see McGowan pitch so well. Both he and Morrow looked good in their last starts. The starting pitching might not be a black hole after all.

I think the issue with McGowan and Morrow is less how they'll pitch than if they'll pitch.

China fan - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#284621) #
"...The reason noone's complaining about the catchers yet is because they're all hitting...."

The sample sizes are tiny so far. I don't think we should actually believe that Thole and Kratz have turned into great hitters overnight. They will revert to something much closer to their career numbers soon, and those numbers are unacceptable for a pinch hitter or a DH (their only roles if they are not catching).
92-93 - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#284622) #
Kratz adds value to this roster. He hit .228/.291/.435 in 375 PA with the Phillies in 2012-2013. That's better than reasonable expectations for Moises Sierra, and it allows the team the flexibility to sit Lind vs. LH with Navarro at DH. Navarro has started 7 out of the team's first 11 games behind the plate, which is probably exactly how often you want him starting back there if you want to keep him healthy the whole season.
Chuck - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#284623) #
The reason noone's complaining about the catchers yet is because they're all hitting....

Well, they're out-hitting JPA anyway (111/158/167).

uglyone - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#284625) #
"The sample sizes are tiny so far. I don't think we should actually believe that Thole and Kratz have turned into great hitters overnight"

you're assuming that we have great hitters that are begging to replace them. we don't.

Career MLB #s:

D.Johnson (34): 1556pa, .747ops (Vs. LHP 424pa, .751ops)
J.Francisco (27): 771pa, .731ops (Vs LHP 101pa, .439ops)
M.Sierra (25): 288pa, .701ops (Vs. LHP 104pa, .756ops)
E.Kratz (34): 426pa, .690ops (Vs. LHP 108pa, .641ops)
A.Gose (23): 344pa, .655ops (Vs. LHP 77pa, .550ops)
J.Thole (27): 1167pa, .647ops (Vs. LHP 195pa, .522ops)

Career AAA #s:

D.Johnson (34): 3581pa, .922ops
J.Francisco (27): 769pa, .912ops
J.Thole (27): 363pa, .829ops
E.Kratz (34): 1518pa, .812ops
M.Sierra (25): 834pa, .782ops
A.Gose (23): 953pa, .726ops


Dan Johnson might be the guy to give a shot to, given that he doesn't seem to have much of a platoon split.

Sierra I think clearly deserves a shot, given his youth, and decent numbers and right handedness.

The question imo is whether Thole should be on this team, and given that he doesn't seem to be helping Dickey much, I'm not sure there's a good reason for him to be.
John Northey - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#284626) #
The Ex-Jay watch... OPS+
CA: JPA -6 , TdA: 23 (no hits first 5 games, 750 OPS in next 4), Mathis 51, Buck 1 for 4, Molina 1 for 15, Gomes 144
Phew, lots of ex-Jay catchers out there
2B: Bonifacio 164 leads NL in H and SB
SS: Escobar 33, Alex Gonzalez 87, Hechavarria 136 (over 45 PA),
OF: Thames not even in AAA, Snider 115, Davis 112 (leads in SB)
UT: Kelly Johnson 151 for NYY (dang)

SP: Alvarez 96 ERA+ 2 starts, Johnson DL for at least a month, Burnett 98 in 3 starts 14 BB in 16 IP (!!!),

Many more out there but those were the first ones I thought of. 

jerjapan - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#284627) #
I know there's a prevailing sentiment round here that AA has a reliever fetish, but watching a dominating bullpen suffocate the opposition like Santos and Cecil did last night is a real joy.  The fact that they were protecting McGowan's first win in 6 years just makes it that much sweeter. 
Chuck - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#284628) #
Thames not even in AAA

Playing in Korea.

Chuck - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#284629) #
Davis 112

Love the early season. His OPS+ is propped up by 2 HBP (absent which his OBP drops from 333 to 272).

greenfrog - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#284630) #
AA deserves credit for building a very good bullpen. While the Rogers trade is a sore point, other current members of the 'pen were good draft picks (Cecil, Loup, Janssen) or were acquired in astute trades (Delabar, Santos) or off the scrap heap (Wagner, Redmond). It looks good on AA.
PeterG - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#284631) #
Jenkins closed for Buffalo today. While I would like to see him tried again as a starter, one reason he may be in relief is that the Jays see him up this year. I imagine they are attempting to trade a pitcher or two.....Happ or Redmond. I imagine too that Santos is still very much in play or in July Janssen.... AA .would be looking, I think, for young 2b or OF coming back.
92-93 - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#284632) #
Sam Fuld, DFAd today, is a better fit for the roster than Sierra, considering they actually start Lind vs. LHP and use Navarro at DH vs. them otherwise.
uglyone - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#284633) #
Lind has started 1gm of 5 vs. LH SP.

MLB

Sierra (25) .701ops (.756ops vs. LHP)
Fuld (32) .646ops (.668ops vs. LHP)

AAA

Sierra (25) .782ops
Fuld (32) .762ops

Chuck - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#284634) #
Ignoring handedness (Fuld is a LHB, Sierra a RHB), Fuld has the advantage of speed and defense over Sierra, even if he likely is a lesser hitter. He'd actually get playing time on this roster as a pinch-runner and defensive caddy for Cabrera. And is a more viable plan B center fielder than Cabrera.

Though I guess Gose would do all those things as well.

92-93 - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#284635) #
And Navarro has started 2 of those other starts vs. LHP. If Sierra is going to start 40% of the games vs. LHP and can't cover CF, he's a bad 4th OF to be carrying. Fuld is both a better defender and baserunner as well.
PeterG - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#284636) #
There is no place for Sierra to go other than in a deal. I think he deserves more of an opportunity than he has been given so far. Not interested in Fuld.
uglyone - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#284637) #
John Lott @LottOnBaseball
Both Reyes and Janssen could be back for next weekend in Cleveland, Gibbons says. Reyes said he was "very happy" with his base running today

Shi Davidi @ShiDavidi
John Gibbons says plan is for both Reyes and Janssen to do rehab stints in Florida. Hope is Reyes could be ready for Cleveland next weekend

John Lott @LottOnBaseball
Gibbons says #BlueJays still dont know next steps for Happ, and wont say what factors will determine whatever that decision will be.
uglyone - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#284638) #
"Though I guess Gose would do all those things as well."

Pillar, too.
Mike Green - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#284640) #
The bench needs will come into clearer focus when Reyes returns.  Assuming that you settle upon Reyes and Izturis as your regular DP combination, you want to have a middle infield backup to be a late inning defensive sub for Izturis and occasionally take a start for both.  Goins or Kawasaki will do fine in that role, but personally I would prefer Kawasaki.  A RH 4th OF who can play centerfield (and pinch-run) would be ideal to give Rasmus a day off  every 2-3 weeks.  Pillar looked like he might be that guy last year, but really struggled in spring training and still isn't hitting.  This is the kind of piece a GM might be able to acquire for a relief pitcher.  The Kratz/Navarro/Thole C/DH/PH arrangement is working well. 

Richard S.S. - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#284641) #
The Blue Jays are in or tied for 1st Place the last four days, and the Team is only 6-5. The Starters are still in flux, having not made enough starts to settle out so we can see what we have. The Bullpen has given up 13 ER over 11 games. Two 3-run innings by Jefress and Rogers count for 6 of those ER but just 2 of the innings. Offense is struggling, with hopes of breaking loose soon. Defense is wonderful, and looks to stay that way. Life is good.
uglyone - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#284642) #
Surprising thing is that so far, our bench has been more of a strength than a weakness.



and for interest's sake, AL East Benches so far:

TOR

PH Kratz 9pa, .778ops, 113wrc+, +0.0bsr, +0.1df, +0.1war
OF Sierra 9pa, .000ops, -100wrc+, +0.0bsr, -0.2df, -0.2war
IF Diaz 21pa, .611ops, 82wrc+, +0.2bsr, +0.3df, +0.1war
C Thole 9pa, 1.000ops, 192wrc+, -0.4bsr, +0.2df, +0.1war
--------------------------------------------------------
XIF Goins 23pa, .178ops, -61wrc+, +0.0bsr, +0.2df, -0.3war


BOS

PH M.Carp 12pa, .583ops, 56wrc+, +0.0bsr, -0.1df, -0.1war
OF J.Gomes 33pa, .690ops, 99wrc+, -0.1bsr, -0.3df, +0.1war
IF J.Herrera 18pa, .533ops, 64wrc+, -0.4bsr, +0.1df, +0.0war
C D.Ross 14pa, .594ops, 65wrc+, +0.0bsr, +0.3df, +0.0war
---------------------------------------------------------
XOF J.Bradley 34pa, .727ops, 112wrc+, +0.1bsr, -0.1df, +0.1war
XIF R.Roberts 10pa, .200ops, -26wrc+, +0.0bsr, +0.0df, -0.1war


TB

PH S.Rodriguez 11pa, .873ops, 149wrc+, +0.2bsr, -0.2df, +0.1war
OF B.Guyer 7pa, .429ops, 14wrc+, +0.0bsr, -0.1df, -0.1war
IF L.Forsythe 23pa, .547ops, 62wrc+, +0.0bsr, -0.5df, -0.1war
C J.Molina 15pa, .134ops, -72wrc+, +0.0bsr, +0.3df, -0.2war
-----------------------------------------------------------
XOF K.Kiermaier 4pa, .000ops, -100wrc+, +0.0bsr, +0.0df, +0.0war


NYY

PH Y.Solarte 42pa, .918ops, 161wrc+, -0.1bsr, +0.1df, +0.4war
OF I.Suzuki 18pa, .944ops, 172wrc+, +0.2bsr, -0.2df, +0.2war
IF D.Anna 15pa, .767ops, 111wrc+, +0.0bsr, +0.1df, +0.1war
C F.Cervelli 15pa, .553ops, 56wrc+, +0.0bsr, +0.1df, +0.0war
-------------------------------------------------------------
XC A.Romine 1pa, .000ops, -100wrc+, +0.0bsr, +0.0df, +0.0war


BAL

PH S.Pearce 3pa, .000ops, -100wrc+, +0.0bsr, +0.0df, -0.1war
OF D.Lough 21pa, .401ops, 9wrc+, +0.4bsr, -0.2df, -0.1war
IF S.Lombardozzi 32pa, .603ops, 70wrc+, -0.1bsr, +0.1df, +0.0war
C S.Clemenger 5pa, 1.400ops, 286wrc+, +0.0bsr, +0.1df, +0.1war
------------------------------------------------------------
XIF J.Schoop 33pa, .636ops, 72wrc+, +0.0bsr, +0.1df, +0.0war



So far its only the Yanks who are getting much from their bench, and I'm not sure the others really have all that much reason to expect much more than they're getting so far.
Chuck - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#284643) #
Hutchison must owe the ump money or something. He's getting squeezed.
uglyone - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#284644) #
even more frustrating since norris has received a generous zone right from the start.

still, some nice battle from hutch tonigh.
uglyone - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#284646) #
not only have the different strike zones been annoying, but the Jays have been killed on three very close aggressive umpire calls - ump calling davis safe at second on the trick slide, calling that EE's toe came off the bag, and now that Kratz getting hit in the hands was a swing.

zero calls going our way in this one.
uglyone - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#284647) #
So Wagner comes into the scoreless tie game in the 7th, and I assume nobody would prefer that it be Rogers instead.

Which should make it obvious that Rogers is the one demoted when the time comes....right?
uglyone - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#284648) #
well, Diaz just won the Johnny Mac spot.
uglyone - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#284649) #
heh, Wagner just had to make me look stupid. Thanks, neil.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#284650) #
Wagner pitched well for the most part. You could argue that he should have thrown a FB instead of a split/change to Lough (Lough ended up singling to left). Wagner was throwing heat and was locating his FB well. He might have been better off going right after him with his best stuff. I had a bad feeling once the speedy Lough got on base.

Norris pitched well, but most of the Jays bats are cold. The team hasn't scored an earned run in a couple of games. Lawrie, EE and Rasmus haven't done much; that's a big OPS outage when the team is also running Diaz and/or Goins out there. Some of the other bats might be cooling down as well.

Very good job by Hutch tonight. He's a gamer. His line reminded me of all those great lines we used to see from him as he worked his way up through the minors.
uglyone - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#284651) #
oh colby you beautiful redneck you.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#284652) #
You can all thank me for that post now:)
Mike Green - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#284653) #
zero calls going our way in this one.

That last check swing non-call on Rasmus didn't seem like much at the time, but youneverknow.
uglyone - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#284654) #
yep.

finally a call goes our way, and thankfully we capitalize.

weird thing this year - we seem to be capitalizing on the breaks we get so far. didn't happen much last year.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#284655) #
Nice workmanlike inning from Redmond there.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#284656) #
Very liberal strike zone from this ump. He's calling pitches that appear to be well out of the zone strikes. For the O's, anyway.
Four Seamer - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#284657) #
Encarnacion may not be striking any fear into opposing pitchers, but he sure is terrifying to fans above the third base dugout. 
uglyone - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#284658) #
it seems like the umps have been told to call a wider strike zone this year in general. fans are complaining about it everywhere, it seems obvious from the pitching charts, and it explains why nobody's hitting anything anywhere in the league yet this year.
uglyone - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#284659) #
heh, and just as I type that the ump doesn't give either side to Redmond and hands Davis a leadoff walk.

edit: and redmond tells the ump to F off with a sweet GIDP
uglyone - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#284660) #
heh. Melky has been messing with those LF fans all series. love it.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#284661) #
Whew - Redmond has gotten away with a few pitches left up.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#284662) #
If Lawrie is going to reach the 9 WAR Mike G predicted for him this year, he's going to need close to 10 WAR from here on out.
Mike Green - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#284663) #
Tough loss, but the Jays played good defence all night.  They'll win their share if they keep at that. 
Gerry - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#284664) #
Todd Redmond just gave more evidence for the "Redmond use rules", great the first time through the order, not so good the second time.

However when you only score one run in 12 innings its tough to win.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#284665) #
Every time Redmond gets once through the lineup (2-3 IP) he's been almost unbeatable. Pitching more than 3 IP he gives up runs.

Twelve innings and only 7 Hits. This is going to get old.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 10:58 PM EDT (#284666) #
Offense has to wake up. It will, I'm sure. Pitching and especially D look much better this year, bullpen continues to be a strength.
Mike Green - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#284667) #
It's funny.  Last year, Redmond got killed in the 4th inning but was pretty good in the 5th and 6th.

I am sure Gibbons would have preferred to have somebody else out there ready to pitch in the 12th (especially with Redmond having thrown an inning on Thursday), but aside from Santos, the cupboard was bare.
christaylor - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#284668) #
I stayed up until 4am GMT for that? (Read: I'm glad I stayed up for that...)

Will this team hit, will Reyes return, and will the cost of a bat at 3B/2B be onerous if this team is 4-5 over .500?

My answers are probably at some point, yes, and probably no.
christaylor - Saturday, April 12 2014 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#284669) #
Ugh... 4-5 over... come June... zzzz.
John Northey - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 05:53 AM EDT (#284670) #
Jays are now out of first place.  Sigh.  But last year they never were in first, in 2012 April 24th was the last time they were in first. So that is the next goal, get back into 1st and be there past the 24th.  In 2009 they were in first as late as May 23rd.  2000 they lasted until July 14th (!)...and 5 days later one of Ash's worst trades happened (Loaiza for Mike Young and others) - it was also the year they drafted McGowan.  2001 was the only other year they were in first as late as May since 1993.

Wow does that make the last 20 years of Blue Jays baseball look depressing eh?
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#284672) #
I would imagine that every pitcher, except perhaps the great Tom Seaver of whom it was said you had to hit him early, has more trouble on successive times through the order. Pete Rose used to say that it is the third and fourth at bat against the same pitcher when he was more likely to hit.

i was a bit surprised to see Redmond come out the last inning, but then I don't know what the options were at that point. I was perhaps more surprised to see Wagner come out in the 7th in a tie game, only to see Loup face only one batter (and throw one pitch) before leaving in a close game. I questioned both bringing in Wagner and taking out Loup (and Delabar when it was clear we hoped the game would go to extras).

I suspect the Wagner/Loup decisions were driven largely by platoon splits where Gibbons' strategies seem somewhere on the continuum between winning baseball and Carlos Tosca. Or maybe the decisive factor was who was tired that day and recognition that it's a marathon not a sprint. And who knows if this offence, which appears to be the worst in the division, would have come up with a run anytime soon anyway.

This was clearly one of the 40 games though, in the 60/60/40 grouping, and against a divisional rival at that.
ogator - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#284673) #
Anyone want to discuss Kevin Seitzer yet, or do we have to wait two more weeks?
uglyone - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#284674) #
Al east offences:

BAL: 3.91r/gm, 5.8bb%, 20.4k%, .124iso, .311babip, .685ops, .303woba, 90wrc+
NYY: 3.83r/gm, 7.3bb%, 21.8k%, .151iso, .333babip, .761ops, .336woba, 114wrc+
BOS: 3.67r/gm, 8.2bb%, 22.8k%, .117iso, .318babip, .697ops, .313woba, 96wrc+
TOR: 3.43r/gm, 9.0bb%, 19.5k%, .151iso, .233babip, .642ops, .287woba, 81wrc+
TBR: 3.33r/gm, 9.5bb%, 18.2k%, .139iso, .262babip, .673ops, .302woba, 99wrc+
uglyone - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#284675) #
Al east SP

TBR: 6.2ip/gs, 7.4k/9, 2.4bb/9, 0.6hr/9, .276babip, 2.77era, 3.30fip, 3.60xfip
TOR: 5.6ip/gs, 8.2k/9, 3.2bb/9, 0.5hr/9, .320babip, 3.88era, 3.39fip, 4.05xfip
BOS: 5.9ip/gs, 8.2k/9, 2.2bb/9, 1.7hr/9, .319babip, 4.20era, 4.49fip, 3.55xfip
BAL: 5.8ip/gs, 6.1k/9, 2.3bb/9, 1.4hr/9, .333babip, 4.64era, 4.76fip, 4.51xfip
NYY: 6.1ip/gs, 8.5k/9, 1.9bb/9, 1.4hr/9, .313babip, 4.68era, 3.95fip, 3.30xfip



RP

TBR: 31.3ip, 6.9k/9, 3.7bb/9, 0.6hr/9, .212babip, 2.01era, 3.92fip, 4.54xfip
BAL: 35.0ip, 6.7k/9, 3.1bb/9, 0.8hr/gm, .267babip, 2.57era, 4.18fip, 4.37xfip
BOS: 36.3ip, 9.4k/9, 1.7bb/9, 0.3hr/9, .333babip, 2.97era, 2.03fip, 2.89xfip
TOR: 41.0ip, 10.5k/9, 4.4bb/9, 0.4hr/9, .337babip, 3.29era, 3.16fip, 3.67xfip
NYY: 32.0ip, 10.4k/9, 3.7bb/9, 1.4hr/gm, .250babip, 3.66era, 4.22fip, 3.57xfip
Chuck - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#284679) #
Anyone want to discuss Kevin Seitzer yet, or do we have to wait two more weeks?

In discussing the team offense as a whole, uglyone's posted numbers might seem, at first glance, to confirm the axiom that early on, pitchers tend to be ahead of the hitters. No team in the AL East is hitting yet. But something else is going on. AL teams scored 4.3 R/G last year and are at 4.2 R/G this year. Maybe the AL East hitters have simply been at the mercy of a disproportionate amount of good pitching to this point.

At the individual player level, it's hard to tease out the Seitzer effect. In my mind, a bunch of players will attempt to do things the way they always have and for them, Seitzer's presence is largely irrelevant. Is EE going to alter an approach that has worked for the past two years? I doubt it. I am guessing that his struggles are his alone and not somehow Seitzer-induced.

I may be way off, but to me, Lawrie is the big Seitzer project. And Lawrie has not looked good. The results have been awful, of course, but Lawrie has looked awful in producing them rather than merely hitting into bad luck. He looks absolutely lost at the plate, taking hittable fastballs and lunging at breaking balls. When he does swing at fastballs, he is way behind them and only able to slap them to the right side, usually foul.

Chuck - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#284680) #
If seeing a lot of scoring does it for you, you should be a White Sox fan. They lead the league in offense, 6.3 R/G, and are last in defense, 6.1 R/G. I am guessing that the players are allowed to bring their beers onto the field with them.

TB wins the prize for quietest games: 3.3 RF/G, 2.6 RA/G.

greenfrog - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#284681) #
I feel that if Lawrie has a good mechanical and mental approach at the plate, he will be a successful hitter. I just don't know what that mechanical approach is. He has clearly been trying to make adjustments.

It took Belt and Hosmer a while to find an approach that allowed their talent to express itself. Hopefully Lawrie can sort himself out over the next year or two and get untracked. He could end up being really good, or he could end up being Snider (Travis, not Duke).
smcs - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#284683) #
I would imagine that every pitcher, except perhaps the great Tom Seaver of whom it was said you had to hit him early, has more trouble on successive times through the order. Pete Rose used to say that it is the third and fourth at bat against the same pitcher when he was more likely to hit.

2013 AL Starting Pitcher splits

1st PA:   .256/.314/.403/.718
2nd PA:  .264/.324/.423/.747
3rd PA:   .268/.328/.429/.757
4th+ PA: .267/.318/.418/.736

It's not that great of a difference for times through the order, and there are some issues, like the fact that batting orders are front-loaded, so a pitcher might face the 3 best hitters the 3rd time through the order, but be pulled before facing the 3 worst hitters a 3rd time. As well, only pitchers that are pitching well are going to even get to a 3rd or 4th time through the order.
Mike Green - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#284684) #
Helluva bunt by Diaz.  The ball was over his head on the suicide squeeze and he somehow got it down.  Terrific. 
uglyone - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#284685) #
Looks like that vaunted Tampa Bay starting pitching depth is just as vulnerable to injury as the rest of baseball. Seems like they don't always have countless aces to stick in their rotation, it just seems that way because they've been so ridiculously healthy.
uglyone - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#284686) #
that's the first ball that Lawrie has hit true this year (including his first homer too).
Mike Green - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#284687) #
I thought that Lawrie's single earlier in the game was nicely struck too.  Rasmus looking better.  Lawrie looking better.  And the sun is shining in TO in fact.
Chuck - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#284688) #
The ball was over his head on the suicide squeeze

Yeah, the ball looked a good 5' 8" off the ground.

Hodgie - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#284689) #
Perhaps it was just me, but it sure looked like Weiters interfered with Diaz after the bunt, impeding Diaz's ability to get out of the box very quickly.
Hodgie - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#284690) #
And right on queue, Kevin Seitzer shows how much of a grinder he is, willing his charges to open up the offense.
uglyone - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#284691) #
Ubaldo's fastball velocity today:

93: 0
92: 5
91: 10
90: 15
89: 8
88: 11
87: 0

Ubaldo at 90mph is not much of a pitcher. We may have dodged a huge bullet here.
Hodgie - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#284692) #
Seen on Gameday (paraphrased):

"Beurhle has thrown 80 pitches but has plenty in the tank with his Fastabll averaging 82 MPH over the last 10 pitches".

ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#284693) #
it's not that great of a difference for times through the order, and there are some issues, like the fact that batting orders are front-loaded, so a pitcher might face the 3 best hitters the 3rd time through the order, but be pulled before facing the 3 worst hitters a 3rd time

Huh? I don't have an easy time as you labelling a difference that confirms what was said and disproves your reaction, as "not that great of a difference". And if it's only the better pitchers facing an order the third or fourth time as you claim, one of the obvious reasons is to prevent the others from being put in that situation.
uglyone - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#284694) #
So yeah, the Jays currently lead the division in runs scored.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#284695) #
So yeah, the Jays currently lead the division in runs scored.

:)

Some positives from today besides the score.

1. The home plate ump. He sure had a better day than the guy yesterday.
2. Great move by Gibbons in my view putting Rasmus second after yesterday to ride the hot hand.
3. Ubaldo Jimenez. A welcome addition to the staff of an opponent.
4. The squeeze. I was so pleased to see them do that rather than likely fritter away a scoring opportunity. Another good call by Gibbons and great execution.
5. Lawrie's day at the plate.
uglyone - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#284696) #
esmil rogers is the worst.
Mike Green - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#284697) #
I am just as glad that he didn't walk anybody.

Happ would make a nice addition to the bullpen, particularly on a club with 4 right-handed starters.
scottt - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#284698) #
2. Great move by Gibbons in my view putting Rasmus second after yesterday to ride the hot hand.

Rasmus has ridiculously good career numbers against Ubaldo. I'm sure that played in the decision as well.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#284699) #
Toronto looks to be back in a tie for 1st Place. Nice to see the offense have a good day. Was it their breakout day?

Esmil Rogers is the Reliever struggling the most on this team. Reyes, Janssen and Happ will be returning, probably between the 21st and 1st. Is Rogers at risk?
scottt - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#284700) #
Most likely Wagner goes back down.

PeterG - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#284701) #
any report on Rasmus? why did he leave game?
China fan - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#284702) #
Happ is back, along with Kawasaki. Izturis to the DL and Kratz demoted. Happ will be in the bullpen, to begin with anyway.
China fan - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#284703) #
Rasmus left the game with a tight hamstring. He reportedly says it is not too bad, and he hopes to be in Tuesday's game.
Sano - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#284704) #
What's the deal with Izturis?
China fan - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#284705) #
The Izturis injury sounds potentially very serious: he felt two "pops" in his left knee when he tripped on the dugout stairs, and it's reportedly very painful and will be getting an MRI tomorrow.

Reyes will be back soon, but that doesn't solve the 2B problem, which is now worse than ever. Izturis was the only reason the 2B spot hasn't been a total disaster (offense-wise) this season. If he is now injured for an extended period, that's a significant problem. I wonder if Anthopoulos will now try to pull the trigger on a trade for a starting 2B (perhaps using some of his pitching depth). Or will he content himself with Kawasaki, who has been hitting well (in a small sample) at Buffalo this season?
PeterG - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#284706) #
Izturis stumbled on dugout steps and heard something pop. He fears it is bad.

There is still another move to come I think as Kawaski was not on 40 man......either Izturis to 60 day DL or Walden DFA'd I would assume.

Mike Green - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#284707) #
Eight man pen?  Why now?  Buehrle throws 7 innings and Rogers throws 2.  They have a day off.  All five starters have shown that they are capable of throwing 6-7 innings. 

What exactly is the club going to do when they actually do have a pitching problem?  Go with a 15 man staff?

92-93 - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#284708) #
Happ returns just in time to back up our worst pitcher in his next start. Has Dickey decided to jump ahead of Morrow to pitch Tuesday yet?

I too was puzzled by pulling Loup after 1 pitch, especially because Cruz-David-Jones were coming up and Jones handles RHP much better than LHP. I also thought the Jays could have used two intentional walks to get Sergio Santos warm in the 12th and bring him in the with bases loaded. I see where Gibbons was coming from though, in that the offense wasn't doing anything anyway and he needed to hold some pitchers back. Hard to nitpick on the manager's moves when the offense is entirely absent and the team's best player is continuing his bone-headed decisions on the base paths.

The best part about the team's start has definitely been the defense. They aren't kicking and throwing the ball around like they were last year. I really hope Rasmus is okay, because I don't want to watch Melky in CF or Gose at the plate if he isn't ready offensively.
PeterG - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#284709) #
I think the 8 man pen is simply because they don't want to waive a pitcher. So far, the 4 man bench has not been utilized anyway. I prefer to see Kratz demoted so that Gibbons is forced to give more AB's to Sierra.
Original Ryan - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#284710) #
What exactly is the club going to do when they actually do have a pitching problem? Go with a 15 man staff?

Why stop at 15? Casey Janssen is a former infielder and he could probably hit about as well as Ryan Goins, so the team wouldn't lose much by sticking him in the field when he's not pitching.

With Rasmus not 100%, this is a really bad time to go back to the 8-man bullpen. If Rasmus isn't ready to go by Tuesday, the team will be playing with a 2-man bench in Minnesota barring another roster move.

I would love to know what the team thinks it has in Esmil Rogers, other than free advertising whenever his name is mentioned. For the past six weeks he's pitched like someone destined for the waiver wire. Why not get it over with?

bpoz - Sunday, April 13 2014 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#284711) #
I love it when the Jays hammer someone.
TangledUpInBlue - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 05:17 AM EDT (#284712) #
... but that doesn't solve the 2B problem, which is now worse than ever. Izturis was the only reason the 2B spot hasn't been a total disaster (offense-wise) this season. If he is now injured for an extended period, that's a significant problem..

I can't see the switch from Izturis to Kawasaki being a significant loss. Might even be an upgrade.
Dave Till - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 05:38 AM EDT (#284713) #
I would love to know what the team thinks it has in Esmil Rogers, other than free advertising whenever his name is mentioned.

My best guess is that he can pitch multiple innings in a single outing - most of the Jays' bullpen can't do that. This will be useful if one of the starters can't make it out of the second inning, or when the previous day's game went 14 innings and the bullpen desperately needs rest.

Yesterday shows the upside of AA's cautious approach to spending money on free-agent pitching. It's still early, but Ubaldo Jiminez is looking like a colossal bust, and the Orioles are now committed to him through 2017.
Mike Green - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#284714) #
They've called up Happ and they have Redmond.  That's two guys who can give you 2-3 innings with ease, and better ones than Rogers. Rogers is like a lesser version of Jeremy Jeffress- a player with some potential (less than Jeffress) who has some record of performance (more than Jeffress) and out of options.

Anthopoulos had 4 choices- keep Happ on the rehab stint a little longer (he could have stayed in the minors for up to 30 days),  DFA Rogers, option Wagner, or go with an 8 man pen.  None of the options are perfect, but feeding the beast by keeping 8 relievers and going with a short bench when you have pitchers throwing well and position players ailing is the wrong answer.

Original Ryan - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#284716) #
Chad Jenkins can also give the team multiple innings. Marcus Walden probably can as well, although it's a bit early to say how effective he'll be as a reliever. I think it's fair to say that there are plenty of options to fill the mop-up/long relief role.
Mike Green - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#284717) #
Here is the statistical evidence on the Jay team defence so far.  Both DRS and UZR are impressed. Diaz has been very good, as has Rasmus.  The club needs to make sure that Rasmus gets a day off every 3-4 weeks, at least. 
92-93 - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#284718) #
I guess the defensive stats, unlike the average Blue Jays fan, recognize that the balls that have been hit over Rasmus' head have been uncatchable. He still needs to work on his throwing, though.
Mike Green - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#284719) #
Of course, Melky Cabrera has also been a lot better than last year presumably thanks to the removal of the tumour.  He is of course no longer capable of playing centerfield.
Oceanbound - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#284720) #
Not sure where the stats say Rasmus has been very good, his DRS is 0 and his UZR is 0.2 with negative range?

Mike Green - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#284722) #
At this stage of a season, statistical measures of individual players contribution are not reliable because of sample size issues.  It does provide insight about team defence however.  UZR and DRS both give more credit to Melky Cabrera than to Colby Rasmus for the improved outfield defence this year so far.  That will change as more balls are put in play. 

On the O's broadcast this weekend, Jim Palmer was noting how much ground Rasmus covered.
Lylemcr - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#284723) #

Remind me why so many people were ready to jump of the bridge if we didn't get U. Jimenez or Santana.

McGowan was super studly on Friday.  Hutchinson was prime and Beurle  has been amazing.  This is so different than last year.  The jays just need to get the bats to wake up and I think that is going to happen when Reyes comes off the DL in a week.

Tied for first! 

John Northey - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#284724) #
It is an interesting year so far. Hutch & McGowan vs Santana & Jimenez will be fun to watch (hopefully).  So far ERA+'s of 113/106 for the Jays, 8 shutout innings for Santana/57 ERA+ for Jimenez (16 IP 10 BB - we all knew walks were his potential weakness).

So far I think the pair we have here are a bit better as Jimenez has been a disaster through 3 starts (4/4/5 runs allowed in 6, 4 2/3, 5 1/3 IP) while Santana had one great start vs Hutch having 2 shutout games (5 1/3, 6 IP) and one poor game in the middle (3 1/3 6 runs) and McGowan had a bad start (2 2/3 4 runs) and a great one (6 1/3 0 runs).

Tied for first is a LOT of fun to see.  Hopefully for just the 4th time since the 2 WS wins we can see the Jays in first in May this year.  And I'd really, really be happy to see them in first in June or later for just the 2nd time since the WS wins and for the first time without Cito at the helm since the 1980's.

JB21 - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#284726) #
Colby did look good in the O's series but in Tampa some of those balls that were going over his head were landing pretty shallow, some prior to the warning track. IMO either the Jays had told him to play shallower than normal or he was having trouble picking up the ball in the Trop.
uglyone - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#284727) #
I can only presume that AA is furiously working the phones to see if anyone is interested enough in Happ/Rogers to swap him a similar level borderline righty bench bat for one or both of them.

There's no way that gibbons is telling him that he'd rather have happ/rogers in the 'pen over redmond/wagner.

And i'm not so sure happ is valueless. Can anyone think of a team who needs SP badly and might have a borderline bench LHP-masher to spare? Maybe an overpaid one that they'd rather move anyways?
uglyone - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#284728) #
"Remind me why so many people were ready to jump of the bridge if we didn't get U. Jimenez or Santana."

I always understood the Tanaka whining (even if it was clear the yanks were not going to be outbid), but i never understood the santana/jimenez whining.

Though to be fair I have always been higher on the immediate upside of hutch/mcgowan/happ/redmond/nolin than most jays fans, and that could be my homerism getting in the way.

uglyone - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#284729) #
"Not sure where the stats say Rasmus has been very good, his DRS is 0 and his UZR is 0.2 with negative range?"

Having a slightly positive (or even even) rating in an important position like Cf automatically becomes a big positive after the positional adjustment is made.

Even though these individual sample sizes are pretty much meaningless, here's how fangraphs rates our defenders after the positional adjustments:

1. Diaz +2.3
2. Izturis +1.4
3. Goins +1.0
4. Cabrera +0.5
5. Navarro +0.4
6. Rasmus +0.3
7. Thole +0.2
8. Kratz +0.1
9. Reyes +0.0
10. Encarnacion -0.1
11. Sierra -0.2
12. Lawrie -0.2
13. Bautista -0.4
14. Lind -1.0

These numbers are weird sometimes.

Lawrie seems to have made so many great range plays so far that it's hard to figure how he's underwater here. Though i guess there have been a number of shots down the line which have escaped him.

And i'm always surprised by how quickly uzr punishes our 1B, when they seem competent watching them.
Chuck - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#284730) #
I won't presume to speak for anyone but myself here. While Jimenez and Santana both came with the question marks of recent poor seasons, and of course the inflated price tags that free agency carries, they did seem like likely bets for 180-200 innings.

The issues surrounding Morrow, McGowan and Hutchison are likely more to do with durability than quality. I think all three have the tools to be better starters than Jimenez and Santana, but it's anyone's guess how many starts they provide. Morrow and McGowan have a history of injuries. Even a fully recovered Hutchison will be constrained by his youth.

There's a decent chance that Happ ends up starting more games this year than one of the three aforementioned.

greenfrog - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#284731) #
It's still early to be assessing all of the Jays' moves and non-moves on the pitching front this off-season. Keith Law recently said in his weekly chat that he doesn't even look at April stats.

Jimenez has been horrible in the early going. Santana has had one start, in which he was brilliant (against a weak Mets offense). Kazmir has been excellent through 19.1 innings, but left his last start with a triceps injury.

Because of the rotation's potential durability issues, it would be nice if one or two of the high-minors prospects started dominating the opposition on a regular basis. In the meantime, it's not the worst thing to have Happ, Redmond and Jenkins around (instead of Laffey, Wang and Ortiz) as depth options. I still think Santana at 1/14 would have been a nice depth/quality/low-risk move.
92-93 - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#284734) #
"Remind me why so many people were ready to jump of the bridge if we didn't get U. Jimenez or Santana."

From my perspective, people were far more concerned with why the Jays weren't going after those pitchers, not that they weren't actually going after those pitchers. The eventual story of the Jays needing to collect money from the players in order to sign Santana confirmed those offseason concerns. In other words, people were jumping off the bridge because we thought there were additions AA wanted to make that he wasn't being allowed to do, and nothing that has happened has changed that thinking.
China fan - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#284735) #
"....The issues surrounding Morrow, McGowan and Hutchison are likely more to do with durability than quality...."

Yes, exactly.

"...people were jumping off the bridge because we thought there were additions AA wanted to make that he wasn't being allowed to do..."

Also correct. Although not everyone actually wanted to jump off the bridge. We were worried, but not actually suicidal -- because of the possibility that pitchers such as Hutchison, Morrow and McGowan would perform well.
greenfrog - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#284736) #
Looks like Boras was right about the FO being blocked by a big corporate stop sign. It will be interesting to see whether the situation is any different if the Jays are in the race in July.
Chuck - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#284737) #
Survey: How many starts, collectively, will be logged by McGowan, Morrow and Hutchison? Everything going right would look like about 90.
Ryan Day - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#284738) #
Morrow - let's say 20-25 starts. I expect him to get hurt, but it's impossible to know how and when - while I expect McGowan's shoulder to blow up at any moment, Morrow seems to do something different every time.
Hutchison - I have the most faith in Hutch, because most pitchers can last at least a year with a new elbow. He'll be healthy enough to make 30, though he could get shut down before he makes it there.
McGowan: 15. I think he'll be good for a while, then get hurt, and finish the year in the bullpen. (Again, I have no idea how much he would be allowed to pitch, even if he were completely healthy. Hard to imagine the Jays letting him pitch more than 150 innings.
uglyone - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#284739) #
92-93, the last thing you can criticize ownership for is not giving AA enough money.

And if AA deserves a shot to spend more money, then that means that this roster has to be much better than what was essentially the same roster last year, else AA is incompetent and shouldn't be spending more money anyways.

As for the Santana situation, i don't think it proves what you say it proves - AA had interest, but not enough interest at that asking price. When the players publicly asked to sign him, he told them to put their money where their mouths were. If Santana was a better player, i'm sure AA would have been more aggressive in trying to get him.

The fact that they didn't want to spend $15m on either of those pitchers tells us as much about player evaluations as financial constraints. If money were that much of a concern we would have seen AA selling off pieces, not upping payroll again.

The concern is not with ownership in the least, imo - it's all about AA, and whether he's any good at all.

And the test of that is whether this roster, near the same as last year's, can be a legit playoff contender. If it isn't, then we don't want AA to be the guy making contract decisions anymore going forward.
uglyone - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#284740) #
Chuck, i'm also interested to see when the last time was that we made it through three consecutive rotations with the same 5sp.

Or even the most consecutive rotations with the same 5sp in the last few years.

When's the last time we made it through an entire month with only 5 SP?


Hmm. I may research this myself,
pubster - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#284741) #
Judging by the way Rogers does business I would think that they would be willing to invest more money into the team as long as they were confident that they would get a good return on investment. In other words if they could contend.

They showed this last season with the Jays, and theyve shown it in other ventures such as purchasing MLSE.
greenfrog - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#284742) #
Uglyone, what if the truth is somewhere in between - that the current roster is not quite a legit playoff contender, but would have a significantly better chance of being one with two or three complementary (not prohibitively expensive or risky) pieces?

Let's say that Rogers bars any more spending and the team wins 84 games and, for lack of an additional starting pitcher, a second baseman, and an RH bat, misses the playoffs. The powers-that-be conclude that AA knows what he's doing after all, keeps him on, and more or less maintains the current budget (perhaps increasing it slightly), with a view to really trying to compete in 2015 (sans Rasmus and Cabrera).

As a Jays fan, would you find this to be a satisfying outcome?
pubster - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#284743) #
As a Jays fan I would want a $300 million dollar payroll.

Ownership can only make decisions with the information they have at the time the decision is made.

At the time the decision was made (to not increase payroll) the Jays looked like a last place team who sold the farm and picked up expensive players without any payoff.

With a result like that maybe AA wouldn't even want to ask for more money.
PeterG - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#284744) #
The above outcome from Greenfrog is very close to what I see happening going forward.
China fan - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#284745) #
"...the last thing you can criticize ownership for is not giving AA enough money..."

I disagree. You can praise the ownership for bumping the payroll last year, but why not earlier, and why not now? Boosting the salary once, to allow the acquisition of essentially just two players (Reyes and Buehrle, since Dickey and Cabrera would probably have been affordable in any event), is hardly a fair test of AA's abilities. It's a lot better than nothing, but it's still just two players. If the owners are saying that AA doesn't deserve any further bump in the payroll unless Reyes and Buehrle transform the Jays into a playoff team, that's a completely unfair test to use. There's never any guarantees in baseball, especially if you're gambling on two players.
uglyone - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#284746) #
* - my projected rotations for the start of each year may not be perfect. Some of you may have better memories than I.



2013 projected SP: Dickey, Morrow, Buehrle, Johnson, Happ

SEP '13 (5): Happ 6, Dickey 5, Buehrle 5, Rogers 5, Redmond 5
AUG '13 (7): Buehrke 6, Dickey 6, Happ 5, Redmond 5, Rogers 4, Johnson 2, Wang 1
JUL '13 (6): Dickey 6, Buehrle 5, Johnson 5, Rogers 5, Redmknd 4, Wang 1
JUN '13 (6): Buehrle 6, Dickey 5, Johnson 5, Rogers 5, Wang 4, Ortiz 1
MAY '13 (9): Buehrle 6, Dickey 6, Morrow 4, Jenkins 3, Ortiz 3, Happ 2, Romero 2, Rogers 1, Nolin 1
APR '13 (6): Dickey 6, Morrow 6, Buehrle 5, Happ 5, Johnson 4, Laffey 1

2012 Projected SP: Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, Drabek, Hutchison

SEP '12 (7): Alvarez 6, Morrow 5, Villanueva 5, Romero 5, Laffey 4, Jenkins 2, Happ 1
AUG '12 (7): Villanueva 6, Romero 5, Alvarez 5, Happ 5, Laffey 4, Morrow 2, Cecil 1
JUL '12 (5): Romero 6, Laffey 6, Cecil 5, Alvarez 4, Villanueva 4
JUN '12 (10): Alvarez 6, Romero 5, Cecil 3, Drabek 3, Hutch 3, Chavez 2, Morrow 2, Villanueva 1, Laffey 1, Carreno 1
MAY '12 (5): Romero 6, Morrow 6, Hutch 6, Alvarez 5, Drabek 5
APR '12 (6): Romero 5, Morrow 5, Alvarez 5, Drabek 5, Hutch 2, Carreno 1

2011 projected SP: Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Litsch, Drabek

SEP '11 (6): Morrow 6, Romero 5, Alvarez 5, Mcgowan 4, Cecil 4, Perez 2
AUG '11 (7): Romero 6, Cecil 6, Morrow 5, Alvarez 5, Mills 3, Perez 2, Vilanueva 1
JUL '11 (6): Morrow 6, Cecil 5, Romero 5, Villanueva 5, Reyes 4, Mills 1
JUN '11 (7): Romero 5, Morrow 5, Villanueva 5, Reyes 5, Drabek 3, Stewart 3, Cecil 1
MAY '11 (6): Morrow 6, Reyes 6, Romero 5, Drabek 5, Litsch 4, Villanueva 2
APR '11 (6): Romero 6, Drabek 6, Reyes 5, Litsch 4, Cecil 4, Morrow 2


2010 projected SP: Romero, Marcum, Morrow, Cecil, Eveland

SEP '10 (7): Marcum 5, Cecil 5, Rzep 5, Romero 4, Hill 4, Drabek 3, Morrow 1
AUG '10 (7): Romero 6, Marcum 5, Cecil 5, Morrow 5, Rzep 4, Mills 2, Litsch 1
JUL '10 (7): Romero 5, Cecil 5, Marcum 4, Morrow 4, Litsch 4, Rzep 2, Mills 1
JUN '10 (6): Romero 5, Marcum 5, Morrow 5, Cecil 5, Litsch 4, Tallet 2
MAY '10 (5): Romero 6, Marcum 6, Morrow 6, Cecil 6, Eveland 5
APR '10 (6): Romero 5, Marcum 5, Morrow 5, Eveland 4, Tallet 3, Cecil 2


2009 projected SP: Halladay, Romero, Litsch, Richmond, Purcey

SEP '09 (7): Halladay 6, Romero 6, Tallet 6, Richmond 6, Purcey 3, Cecil 2, Rzep 1
AUG '09 (6): Halladay 6, Romero 6, Cecil 5, Rzep 5, Richmond 3, Tallet 1
JUL '09 (6): Romero 6, Halladay 5, Rzep 5, Cecil 4, Tallet 3, Richmond 1
JUN '09 (7): Tallet 6, Romero 5, Richmond 4, Halladay 4, Janssen 3, Cecil 2, Mills 2
MAY '09 (7): Haladay 6, Tallet 6, Richmond 5, Cecil 4, Ray 4, Janssen 2, Romero 2
APR '09 (7): Halladay 5, Purcey 5, Richmond 4, Romero 3, Tallet 3, Litsch 2, Burres 2


So by my count the jays have had four (4) months in the last 5 years where they've only used 5 starting pitchers.

Of those 4 months, though, only 2 of them included close to the 5 projected SP for that season - May '10 and May '12. The other two months included the likes of laffey, villy, redmond, and rogers as full time starters - July '12 and Sept '13.


So really there have been two months in the last 5 years where the Jays have enjoyed a fully healthy starting rotation.

Which is, of course, completely crazy.


Let's see if they can have a third to start this season. knock on wood.


smcs - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#284747) #
Chuck, i'm also interested to see when the last time was that we made it through three consecutive rotations with the same 5sp.

Or even the most consecutive rotations with the same 5sp in the last few years.

When's the last time we made it through an entire month with only 5 SP?

Buehrle, Dickey, Wang, Johnson and Rogers made every start between June 4 and July 6 last year, a full 6 times through the order last year. After Wang started on August 24, Buehrle, Dickey, Happ, Redmond and Rogers made the remaining 32 starts.

In 2012, Joel Carreno started on April 8. Alvarez, Drabek, Romero, Morrow and Hutchison made every start until Brett Cecil started on June 17 (62 starts for the same 5 guys). They also went from June 25 to August 16 starting only Romero, Cecil, Alvarez, Laffey and Villaneuva. They basically traded Drabek, Morrow and Hutchison for Cecil, Laffey and Villaneuva.
PeterG - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#284748) #
How would Bauxites feel if unspent budget for 2014 was transferred to international signings in July and the Jays exceeded the limits as did Cubs and Rangers last year. There are penalties but they are pale in comparison to the likely gains in doing so.
.

uglyone - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#284749) #
And note that those projected rotations don't even include the guys who went under the knife the previous year and who would have been part of the rotation if healthy. So even those 2 "healthy" months have asterisks since guys like hutch, cecil, janssen, mcgowan, marcum would have been in those rotations if healthy.
greenfrog - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#284750) #
One more thought: the Jays only recently bumped up the team's payroll. It would be helpful if Rogers maintained the current moderately-high level (along with some modest cost-of-baseball-living increases) for a number of years. A sustained high payroll is a powerful tool (especially when the GM uses those resources judiciously, as Cherington has done).

Conversely, a brief spike followed by cutbacks and budget uncertainty is less helpful. For example, having an above-average payroll in 2013 allowed AA to make some interesting moves, but several years of a $130-140M payroll (perhaps starting when Darvish and various other IFAs became available) would have been even better.
uglyone - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#284751) #
"Uglyone, what if the truth is somewhere in between - that the current roster is not quite a legit playoff contender, but would have a significantly better chance of being one with two or three complementary (not prohibitively expensive or risky) pieces?

Let's say that Rogers bars any more spending and the team wins 84 games and, for lack of an additional starting pitcher, a second baseman, and an RH bat, misses the playoffs. The powers-that-be conclude that AA knows what he's doing after all, keeps him on, and more or less maintains the current budget (perhaps increasing it slightly), with a view to really trying to compete in 2015 (sans Rasmus and Cabrera).

As a Jays fan, would you find this to be a satisfying outcome?"


Last year's results were so bad that i've always considered the first half of this year as make or break it for this core of players.

If this core of players is worth building around despite last year's disaster, then that should be evident pretty quickly this year, and the club could transition into Buyer mode very easily.

But if its more of the same from last year, then given the age and window of the players, this trade deadline would have to be Selling time.

And really, a Santana or Drew really shouldn't be the difference in whether they can be that type of team or not.

Sure the jays are gambling that they might miss out on a few crucial wins early in the year which cost them at the end, but gambling yet another $30m on marginal players like Drew and Santana with a roster that failed miserably last year is a bit much to ask any ownership group, really.

An interesting early test of management's approach thisnyear will be if they're still winning at the end of this month and Izturis' injury is longterm - how quickly does the team start sniffing around Drew or Gregorius?
greenfrog - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#284752) #
Spending $14m or $15m for one year of Santana is not the same as spending 3/45 or 4/60 to acquire Santana or Ubaldo or Garza. The one-year contract is very low-risk, and you probably get an extra draft pick at the end of the year.

I don't necessarily agree that Santana is a "marginal" player. It's telling that a number of Jays players wanted him in Toronto. He was #6 on Law's top 50 free agents last off-season. Here is part of what Law wrote:

Santana's velocity was unchanged, but he used his sinker more often and got more movement on it, while he also threw more strikes across the board. The drop in his home run rate after leaving a tough home-run park has to help his case, as does the increased use of the sinker that explains how he kept the ball in the park more effectively.

He may always be a little homer-prone, but he's now in a range you can live with. He's one of the best free-agent starters available, and should get four years and top-of-the-market money as a result.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#284753) #
Spending $14m or $15m for one year of Santana is not the same as spending 3/45 or 4/60 to acquire Santana or Ubaldo or Garza.

It's also not an option. For that, he took Atlanta.
SK in NJ - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#284754) #
I think not going after Santana or Jimenez was fine (although Santana on a one year deal was acceptable). My main issue was not addressing the other holes (namely a platoon DH/1B, a 2B, and a real 4th OF). They definitely dodged a bullet with Ubaldo, but I'm not sure the Jays were even in on him, were they? Santana for one year would have been OK with me, but not for multiple years.

As far as the bullpen depth, would the Phils do Mayberry Jr. for Rogers? JMJ hits lefties well and can be a legit 4th OF. Kill two birds with one stone.
uglyone - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#284755) #
Well quoting Keith Law at me will never convince me of anything. That guy is a BSer extraordinaire and his projections are always junk.

Before signing with Atlanta, zips projected Santana at about a 4.25era and an even higher fip. According to zips guy Szymborski, running the zips numbers in rogers center gave the 29th ranked santana projection (27th in camden). Steamer and zips both pegged him in the 1.5-2.0 fwar range, over a full healthy season, so by the deadline you're looking at maybe 1 more win, and that's only if hutch and mcgowan are only replacement level....and they already look much better than that.

I would have been fine with getting Santana on that deal, but what are you gonna do when he takes the same money to pitch in a pitchers' park?

And it'll be interesting to see whether it would have been a good idea to keep mcgowan or hutch out of the rotation in the end anyways.

uglyone - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#284756) #
"As far as the bullpen depth, would the Phils do Mayberry Jr. for Rogers? JMJ hits lefties well and can be a legit 4th OF. Kill two birds with one stone."

This is exactly the kind of deal we should be hoping for.

Happ and Rogers would both be fine filler in most NL parks. There's gotta be a team that needs pitching depth and has a lefty-hitting utility guy to spare.
greenfrog - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#284757) #
Well quoting Keith Law at me will never convince me of anything. That guy is a BSer extraordinaire and his projections are always junk

Supporting evidence?
PeterG - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#284758) #
Drew would be a horrible acquisition.
Thomas - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#284759) #

Uglyone, crunching those numbers is interesting, but you note it rests on a full, healthy season. Again, the SP debate I think resolved more around an assessment of the likelihood the pitchers would remain healthy and the likelihood the Jays would have to tap into their 7th and 8th options at a period of time before Stroman was ready or if he struggled upon promotion. Those WAR figures you provided probably look different if you're assessing Santana vs. Hutchison and Santana vs. Rogers or Redmond or Jenkins.

Of course, there may have been a rarely thought-of benefit to the Jays having to dip further down the depth chart of starting pitching, which is perhaps pushing Rogers or Redmond into the rotation would have got rid of this stupid 8-man bullpen nonsense, at least until a period of time where it was necessary.

Also, your assessment of last year's payroll vs. this year's payroll doesn't seem to factor in Josh Johnson. A healthy Johnson wouldn't have made the difference between contention and what actually occurred last year, but if the deferall stories are accurate, the Jays either never had the money to resign Johnson; at some point during the last calendar year decided they didn't have the money to make that addition or made an assessment that not only Satana and Jimenez, but also Kazmir, Haren, Drew and Mark Ellis and a number of other palpable options weren't worth the additional expenditures.

John Northey - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#284760) #
I suspect a big part of the cash crunch was the Canadian dollar going into the toilet.  On October 22nd the Canadian dollar was worth $0.9736 US, but by March 20th it dropped to $0.8866 US.  That 9 cent spread is massive.  On a $130 mil US payroll that shifted the payroll in Canadian dollars from $133.5 mil to $146.6 mil, or around the cost of keeping Johnson or signing Santana.

So Rogers might have had the Johnson cash around for the whole offseason, but the budget was in Canadian dollars thus by the end of the winter it was gone with AA feeling powerless.
Paul D - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#284761) #
Izturis out 4-6 months.
greenfrog - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#284762) #
Really tough news, as Izturis looked like he was going to be a useful player in 2014. The Jays' positional depth is being tested and it's only mid-April.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#284763) #
Ownership can only make decisions with the information they have at the time the decision is made.

At the time the decision was made (to not increase payroll) the Jays looked like a last place team who sold the farm and picked up expensive players without any payoff.


The other things they know are what ticket sales for the upcoming season look like, and that they posted the second highest operating loss in the majors last year.

i assume that pre-season ticket sales looked nothing like last year judging from the turnout for the Houston series. The team salary for this year is already higher than last, and I suspect the operating loss is going to substantially increase, even without adding increments of $15 million each for free agents.
greenfrog - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#284764) #
Is "operating loss" in this context the same thing as the Jays losing money for Rogers overall? Rogers is always free to sell the team if it's such a burden for the corporation.
scottt - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#284770) #
They expected Izturis to suck. Instead he played well for 2 weeks and hurt himself.

It could be a lot worse.

It also frees a spot on the roster.
Richard S.S. - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#284771) #
Four months from now is August 14th. Six months from now is October 14th. If Maicer can return near mid-September he might be on the Post-Season roster. I expect A.A. will be of the phones looking for someone.
John Northey - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#284772) #
What is scary about Izturis...
Offense: 82 OPS+ is his best since 2011
Defense: Rfield (BR fielding runs) of +2 is his best since 2010 (negative all other years), fDefense of +1.4 his best since 2011
Overall: bWAR of 0.3 vs last years -0.9 and 2012's 0.2.   fWAR of 0.2 vs last years -2.1

Net value of Izturis: +$1.2 mil this year -$10.6 mil last year.

I think losing him at this point probably maximizes the value the Jays will get.  Sad, but his 0-13 with a sac bunt to end it suggests they got all there was.

I think I'd be happy with a Diaz/Goins platoon at 2B with Kawasaki as the overall IF backup once Reyes is back.  Horrid offense, but great defense.  Well, happy isn't right...accepting is a better way.  I just don't trust that Izturis was going to be left on the bench now that his bat went cold whereas I could easily see AA feeling safe to replace either Goins or Diaz or both with a trade.
TangledUpInBlue - Monday, April 14 2014 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#284774) #
I don't trust that Izturis was going to be left on the bench now that his bat went cold

It wasn't even that he was hot and then got cold. He started off lucky, with a really high BABIP over the first several games, then got unlucky over the last four games or so. He is what he is and that's all that he is, and I'm with you, John, the replacements will be just fine.
92-93 - Tuesday, April 15 2014 @ 01:27 AM EDT (#284775) #
If there is something else ownership knows, it's that Forbes' figures are utterly irrelevant and that they are letting Rogers Media bamboozle the Blue Jays out of fair market value for the content, effectively turning an operating profit into an operating loss for the books.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 15 2014 @ 06:34 AM EDT (#284776) #
Ervin Santana continued his marginal pitching on Monday against the Phillies. His season line so far:

1-0, 0.64, 14 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 17 K
pubster - Tuesday, April 15 2014 @ 07:48 AM EDT (#284777) #
I don't think that the Jays are losing money, but I can understand why ownership wouldn't want to increase payroll at this point.

Are we even sure that it was ownership that didn't want to increase payroll or AA not wanting to ask for more? If you asked someone for money and then used it poorly, would you really be quick to ask them for money again?

I just googled '2014 MLB Payroll' and the Jays are listed with the 10th highest payroll in baseball.
John Northey - Tuesday, April 15 2014 @ 07:54 AM EDT (#284778) #
Seems so far that AA had the right idea in chasing Santana, but just had bad luck with Atlanta getting hurt then coming in with a good offer.  Luckily Hutch & McGowan have been solid overall (23 2/3 IP 26 H 1 HR 10 BB 20 SO) and (knock on wood) healthy.  If both can somehow stay healthy all year it'll work out, but I know I wouldn't want to be betting my job on that.
pubster - Tuesday, April 15 2014 @ 07:58 AM EDT (#284779) #
Even though Izturis is off to a great start, I don't think there will be much if any performance drop off with his replacements.

I feel for the guy though. Doesn't it seem like baseball players get these weird freak injuries more often than guys who play other sports?
bpoz - Tuesday, April 15 2014 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#284783) #
E Santana has pitched very well for the Braves so far. It is a long season, anything can happen. Maybe he has a better season than RA Dickey. I never know how to figure these things out.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, April 15 2014 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#284784) #
Looking at Philly's roster, they have Mayberry Jr. and Cesar Hernandez not getting much playing time on their bench. Both of those players would fill organizational holes for the Jays. Mayberry could be a 4th OF and platoon with Lind, while Hernandez could play 2B and has more upside than Goins with the bat (who doesn't?). Not sure how high Philly is on Hernandez, but I'm sure JMJ could be had, at the very least.

Time for AA to get creative here. I'm sure ownership will allow salary neutral trades, since increasing payroll significantly is apparently out of the question.
China fan - Tuesday, April 15 2014 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#284787) #
I'd still like to know if Santana would have chosen the Braves if the Jays had boosted their offer to $16-million. I realize that Santana is trying to build his value for a long-term contract, but is the AL East (especially this year) really such an impossible place for him to build value? If his ERA was slightly higher in a more difficult division, would that have damaged his value among knowledgeable GMs who understand the pitching environments? Could he resist an extra $2-million if it was offered to him? And if he would have been an excellent acquisition for the Jays at $14-million, why couldn't the Jays find a way to cough up an extra $2-million -- such a tiny percentage of their overall payroll?
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 15 2014 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#284789) #
I personally didn't think much of Santana as a possible acquisition.  Of all the ways to spend $16 million, it's not the one I would have chosen with this roster.
soupman - Thursday, April 17 2014 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#284955) #
dickey in a nutshell: he's a knuckleballer.

wakefield came in, dominated with the pitch, and then settled in to being a guy that gave you a 4.5 ERA and 200 innings every year. iirc, maybe niekro was consistently better than league average with the pitch, but usually that's what they are: a dependable back of rotation guy that will occasionally dominate, but just as often will get nicked for single after single until the game is out of reach.

at least the jays have options, if and when they get in the playoffs, for someone like stroman to be on the ready if things aren't breaking dickey's way one day. that said, i have no problem with him going out there every 5th day. anyone that thought he was roy halladay mk2 didn't watch any of his games in 2011-2012 when he was a) getting ridiculous calls on the corners and up in the zone and b) pitching in citco.

/diatribe.
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