With Wil Myers' stress fracture, there is a chance that the Rays might be selling soon.  The key parts that they might sell (Price, Zobrist) have 2015 implications, and so I suspect that they might be unwilling to deal with the Blue Jays.  Maybe less so for Zobrist given his age.

EE has been named the AL player of the month for May. Congrats to Edwin on a fantastic month of baseball.

Interesting note in Shi Davidi's latest article: last off-season, Francisco spent a month training with Luis Mercedes. Also, the Jays tried to acquire Francisco from the Braves last summer after he was placed on waivers, but Atlanta ended up trading him to Milwaukee.

Would have thought Robocop would throw harder.

Anibal Sanchez is having a good year so far, but hasn' t received much run support.

Francisco hit a liner-turned-grounder all the way to the wall in left-centre and ended up with a double. I guess he's a bit on the slow side.

That "angry" pep talk Bautista gave Hutch after that tough 2nd inning seems to have done the trick. Hutch looks like good hutch the past two innings.

Thru 5:

A.Sanchez: 5.0ip, 2ht, 2xbh, 0r, 0bb, 5k, 83pc/50st, 5go/4fo
D.Hutch'n: 5.0ip, 3ht, 0xbh, 0r, 0bb, 5k, 82pc/57st, 4go/3fo

Sweet pitching duel, but I think the jays are bailing Sanchez out a bit by swinging at balls.

beauty 6th inning to get through the top of their order for the 3rd time. impressive bounceback game for Hutch.

At 94 pitches, with VMart coming up first next inning (with 2 hits already today), and a fully rested bullpen I wonder whether Gibber sends Hutch out again.

I could go either way on this one.

I think Gibby gives him a shot at going 7. But Martinez is a dangerous hitter. If he gets on, I expect we'll see a PH.

PR, I mean.

And Gibby makes the right call. What a great inning to finish it off. Thought he lost VMart but got him to swing at the high heat. Got Jackson on a ridiculous unhittable slider IN THE STRIKE ZONE, then got the last guy out quickly.

Great Duel tonight, even though they're both done:

A.Sanchez: 7.0ip, 2ht, 2xbh, 0r, 0bb, 5k, 107pc/65st
D.Hutch'n: 7.0ip, 3ht, 0xbh, 0r, 0bb, 7k, 105pc/75st

Great bounceback game from the kid. The Jays's roster moves are actually starting to all turn out roses. Making them almost look....smart.

Bad work by the official scorer. Bautista didn't take second on the throw. He stole second after the throw.

Love seeing Pillar get the call there instead of Kratz. Pillar's .857ops vs. LHP this year, .746 career, which is better than Kratz, though they both have similar minor league numbers vs. LHP.

and thanks for the cushion, Brett. That's some serious oppo power in a pretty cavernous ballpark.

Is there some reason McGowan couldn't have pitched two innings? Seriously, does Gibbons get bored if he's not switching in relievers?

I would have used Janssen. He has pitched 1 inning since last week.

I suppose that works out. A 3 pitch strikeout save.

It makes sense.  The pen is very well rested.

Delabar actually got the benefit of Martinez swinging on a pitch well outside the zone for the K.  If not, it could have been nailbiting time.  That kind of pitching with a 5 run lead in the ninth shortens the lives of all around.

Love seeing Pillar get the call there instead of Kratz. Pillar's .857ops vs. LHP this year, .746 career, which is better than Kratz...

In that situation you also want a guy who can put the ball in play, so Pillar's ability to make contact might also have factored into Gibby's thinking.

Delabar has issues that no one will admit he's got. He's a much, much better pitcher than he's been showing this year. Everyone talked about his pitches getting into the higher 90's and that's not happening anymore. He'd give up the rare HR but never nibbling like this year. Is his release point that much of an issue? IF none of the above, then it's going to be a very long season, drink lots of milk.

Time to move McGowan up into the RH setup role.

Delabar was worked hard last year, to the point where he had to be DL'd. He also has a bunch of screws in his elbow. He might have fallen off a bit this year. It happens. If he can't be brilliant, hopefully he can just be solid.

In addition to casting about at the deadline for a quality SP and a 2B upgrade, AA might want to look for a strong bullpen arm or two - someone reliable like a prime-era Downs or Frasor.

Actually, I guess 2014 *is* prime-era Frasor...

...casting about at the deadline for a quality SP and a 2B upgrade...

2B is already settled in my opinion. The only upgrade I might advise is figuring a way to get Goins onto the roster by Aug. 31 (i.e., playoffs!) in order to have his defence available with a late lead.

Right now I'd say 2B and pretty much every other position on the field is set.
CA: Navarro/Thole/Kratz have proven fairly effective. Navarro hasn't been as good on offense as desired nor has Kratz but Thole has been way better than anyone hoped for
1B: Encarnacion...nuff said
2B: Tolleson has a 937 OPS, Lawrie is at 704 - far better offense than dreamed of and defensively both are solid
3B: Lawrie / Francisco has been a dream team
SS: Reyes now is up to 721 for OPS and climbing and is 11-1 SB-CS...very solid
LF: Cabrera is looking at a major contract upgrade this winter
CF: Rasmus has a 755 OPS but lots of DL time, Gose is down to 691, Pillar 648 - not time for an upgrade, but one worries when Rasmus has been down for so long
RF: Bautista... nuff said
DH: Lind has a 976 OPS, Navarro has been the RH DH a lot and done OK but an upgrade here (replacing Kratz) would be nice...not critical but nice.
UT: Again, mix and match - 2 catchers, Francisco or Tolleson, Gose or Pillar.  Lots of flexibility and decent offense.

SP: Buehrle, Dickey, Hutchison have been all we could've hoped for...Dickey a bit worse but solid still.  McGowan & Morrow flopped in the end, but Happ has been what he is paid to be (decent), Hendriks did well in his brief shot, and Stroman showed a lot of hope in his one start.  For the back end 2 we'll have to check up again in a month... room to get another starter but not critical at this point, more a very nice to have

RP: Loup, Cecil, Janssen, McGowan all solid in the pen.  Delabar not so much, Redmond a reasonable long guy, with the final slot being a mix and match it seems (Wagner the #1 choice but many others have been there).

Right now what should the Jays chase?
1) Another SP - can never have too many, must be high end thus very, very pricy and hard to get
2) RH DH - ideally can play LF or RF or 3B or 1B or CA so he won't be locked in at DH
3) Hrm... another solid reliever would be nice in case Janssen goes down again, or a long term 2B, or a solid CF if Rasmus is gone long term.

Clearly 2014 is the window of opportunity the Jays have been waiting for.  Another starter who is ace level would be extremely nice.  How to get...I have no idea as the cost will most likely be too high.  Still, one never knows.

As to the future, LF/CF both are free agents post 2014 thus critical to figure those out as Pillar/Gose are not the solution (maybe to CF but not to both positions).  Janssen also is a free agent and Santos (the likely successor) has flopped so a 'now what' will hit there in the offseason too.  Tolleson and Francisco are not free agents for awhile nor is Lawrie so the mix/match at 2B/3B could keep going for a long time.  Wouldn't be shocked though if Francisco goes to LF next year with a Gose/Pillar CF and Lawrie left at 3B and Tolleson at 2B with a few new guys as backups to both.  Lind will get his next option picked up, while the Jays debate resigning Rasmus or Cabrera with a big push to resign Janssen.  Plus, of course, the old hunt for another ace starter.

I have to give John Gibbons his due, he's done a good job this year, seems more serious & in control - like how he gave the top BP guys a good rest against KC including letting Happ take one for the team, having Stroman's first 2 starts be against KC & ST. Louis, 2 teams that don't hit many homers, keeping Lind & Francisco away from LHP, using all 3 catchers etc.

It may be going under the radar, but Melky is scuffling.

When Rasmus returns, I hope both Gose & Pillar are sent to Buffalo, they need to play everyday and improve plate discipline - Darin Mastroianni will make a solid 4th outfielder.

I am probably in the minority, but I'm not willing to sell the farm for Samardjiza, Shields etc. - we will need Hutch, Stroman, Sanchez in the coming years to remain competitive - I'm not looking forward to any kind of rebuild.

Jason Lane pitched 3.1 innings for the Padres last night - returns to the show as a pitcher @ 37 - spent part of his conversion to a pitcher in the Jays farm system - very happy story - persistence pays off even if it's only for a cup of coffee - go Justin Jackson.

I have to give John Gibbons his due, he's done a good job this year, seems more serious & in control.

I think so too. While I personally quibble over his management of the bullpen's long term health, I think he and AA have shown more imagination in their roster management, leveraged platoons well, made the tough decisions on asset management etc. i also commend Gibbons on how he has helped calm the team during their troubled spots such as the bullpen meltdown and the two ugly losses after the winning streak. Along with Bautista, he has grown this year in his leadership role.

The 3B/2B shuffle has worked very well so far, but I don't think that it will work in the long run.  There are two issues- Lawrie's injury risk on the pivot (which has not yet been tested) and Francisco's lack of speed.  You got a sense of the latter last night when Miguel Cabrera threw him out at third on a play that is attempted by a first basemen extremely rarely.  Francisco has rarely been challenged on defence.  He throws and catches well enough, but opponents have not attempted to really take advantage of his mobility weakness.  I am pretty sure that will change soon, and my guess is that it starts tonight.

Wouldn't be surprised if the Jays push it for 2014, but in 2015 Francisco (if he keeps hitting) is moved to LF while Cabrera heads elsewhere.

Thank you for that Jason Lane update. I remember he played in Toronto's system as both an outfielder and pitcher, if I recall correctly. I remember when he announced he was going to try to make the conversion I assumed he was going to (and had) washed out at some point. That's a great story of perserverance.

Add me to the list of people who think that Gibbons has done a good job. I can think of some managers who would just have left Lind in to face the left-hander in the ninth. And the Francisco/Tolleson complex platoon (standard left-right, plus late innings for defense) is a creative solution to a difficult problem: the easiest thing to do would have been to bring up Kawasaki again.

I don't know how long this will last, but building up a 4 1/2 game lead during a part of the schedule in which the Jays are playing the other two divisional leaders is an impressive accomplishment. We might not get post-season baseball, but we're going to get meaningful summer baseball, and we haven't had even that in a long time.

Francisco is not a left-fielder.  Like Adam Dunn, he'd give away on defence about 3/4 of what he gave you on offence. He's a first baseman/DH with the emphasis on DH, who can also play third base in an emergency.

The key play last night was Bautista's ground ball with Gose on 3rd and Reyes on 1st and 1 out in the top of the ninth.  It was well to the left of the second base bag within reasonable distance of the shortstop Romine (who was shifted modestly).  Instead of covering the bag and letting Romine take his best shot at it, Kinsler went behind him.  Romine seemed to be (understandably) surprised and hesitated.  All was lost and the ball went through.  Great defence could conceivably have resulted in a double play with a quick flip from the shortstop to the second baseman (maybe even with the glove) and then a lightning turn; with good defence, Romine would probably have thrown out Bautista and only one run would have scored in the inning likely. 

Yes, Gibbons has done a much better job this year than last year (when he was starting Lind against LHPs and even batting him cleanup).  It has helped. I also give Anthopoulos credit for identifying cheap talent that evidently was much better than I expected- Tolleson, Francisco, Hendriks, Liz was a very nice off-season haul of under-the-radar talent.

It may be going under the radar, but Melky is scuffling.

He has not dazzled since April, but over all he is performing almost exactly as he did in KC.
KC: 305/339/470
Tor: 303/346/471

If he can stay at that level, the organization should be plenty satisfied. His career has been so up and down, it's difficult to know where his "true" talent level sits. I'm quite sure the 935 OPS Melky we saw in April was an aberration.

If Gibbons can manage McGowan in a similar manner to how Girardi is managing Betances this year the bullpen will be in great shape.

Wouldn't be surprised if the Jays push it for 2014, but in 2015 Francisco (if he keeps hitting) is moved to LF while Cabrera heads elsewhere.

I'm with Mike on this. Francisco ain't no outfielder.

If the organization is willing to wager that Francisco has truly turned the corner as a hitter, I think it will be Lind who will suffer the consequences and be moved. My guess for 2015 is that Lawrie returns to 3B, a new 2B is brought in, and one of Francisco or Lind is the platoon DH.

As for Cabrera, he does seem to enjoy the company of his fellow countrymen, making Toronto attractive, but he may also decide to pursue a big payday elsewhere if he can keep his numbers up. Given his recent swoon, I can see AA being reluctant to aggressively pursue an extension at the moment.

"If Gibbons can manage McGowan in a similar manner to how Girardi is managing Betances this year the bullpen will be in great shape."

Betances is on pace for 97 innings pitched over 68 appearances. I'd expect McGowan to blow up in about 2 weeks at that workload.

The 4.5/5 game lead on the Orioles/Yankees is a bit misleading in one respect.  The Orioles and Yankees are probably lesser clubs than the Rays and the Red Sox; the lead over these clubs is 12 and 7.5.

"CF: Rasmus has a 755 OPS but lots of DL time, Gose is down to 691, Pillar 648 - not time for an upgrade, but one worries when Rasmus has been down for so long"

For me the more important stats here are:

Vs. RHP: Rasmus 790 ops
Vs. LHP: Pillar 840 ops



"The 3B/2B shuffle has worked very well so far, but I don't think that it will work in the long run. There are two issues- Lawrie's injury risk on the pivot (which has not yet been tested) and Francisco's lack of speed. "

The thing for me is that whatever trade target you have in mind, it will certainly be a downgrade from what francisco/tolleson have given us sor far. So while we might project them to suck going forward, as of now its hard for me to think of this as an urgent need given that nobody we target could likely match what the platoon has given us so far, even factoring in defense:

Vs. RHP: Francisco 1.088ops, -0.7df, +1.4war
Vs. LHP: Tolleson 1.076ops, +1.2df, +0.6war

I mean, it's just a ridiculous level of production, and essentially is giving us a stud 5-6 war player so far, so i'd be inclined to ride it as long as possible. Even looking at career lines now Juan is at 818 vs. RHP and steve at 849 v LHP, which might tell us that even when the fall comes they'll still be a net positive.

The Sox rode a pretty much out of nowhere nava/gomes platoon to overall stud performance last year, and this might be our chance to do the same.



"Yes, Gibbons has done a much better job this year than last year (when he was starting Lind against LHPs and even batting him cleanup). It has helped."

I'm a huge gibbons fanboy largely because he's so consistently hood with the basic easy stuff that for some reason most managers stubbornly resist. This struct platooning isn't new for gibbons - he was responsible for giving us the awesome catalanotto/johnson platoon, and always consistently platooned zaun with the rh C du jour (bengie/huck/phillips). To be fair with gibbons, last time he had lind he was an elite bat that didn't need to be platooned - so he gave him a bit of a chance to hit lefties last year but ended that experiment pretty quickly. Gibbons was pretty good using rajai and derosa to platoon colby and lind last year, and both had good years as a result, and planned on an izturis/boni platoon at 2B as well..but they both stunk.

And it gives me great pleasure to read sox fans ripping their hair out because farrell insists lefty mashing johnny gomes is a fulltime player, largely because CHARACTER. I still have no idea how farrell won a world series. Proof positive that managers aren't that important in the end, i guess.


"I also give Anthopoulos credit for identifying cheap talent that evidently was much better than I expected- Tolleson, Francisco, Hendriks, Liz was a very nice off-season haul of under-the-radar talent."

Two things have really helped here imo:

1) the lack of guaranteed contracts on the bench. Instead of being forced to roster one set of borderline vets like last year (derosa/davis/boni/izturis) come hell or high water, they've had the roster space to demote strugglers and promote hot hands.

2) AA imo did the most important thing when adding borderline mlb bench parts....he acquired a whole helluva lot of them, hoping that a couple might work out. francisco, tolleson, mastroianni, getz, kawasaki, goedert, johnson, pillar, gose, goins, diaz, kratz, thole, sierra, carroll, tuiasopopo...i mean that's a couple of rosters worth of guys with borderline mlb experience competing for the bottom spots on the mlb roster. Odds are that some of them would get hot and help the team, even while most of them flopped.



"As for Cabrera, he does seem to enjoy the company of his fellow countrymen, making Toronto attractive, but he may also decide to pursue a big payday elsewhere if he can keep his numbers up. Given his recent swoon, I can see AA being reluctant to aggressively pursue an extension at the moment."

Read somewhere AA stating he definitely would have the dollars available to re-sign melky and rasmus.

And looking at the payroll it makes sense. Payroll would be tight next year, but there are next to no contract obligations the year after (only reyes), and they could easily work around next year's budget by backloading any melky/rasmus contracts.


The more i think about, the more it seems to me that AA should feel out whether Gose's hot streak has given him some trade value to a tools-loving GM. Including gose in a trade package right now might be a great sell-high opportunity.

Including gose in a trade package right now might be a great sell-high opportunity.

I'm sure Rasmus's agent would love to see that. It would help his bargaining position were Toronto to have no Plan B in the organization.

Gose is down to 691

Gose's slash line is 255/377/314. One has reason to be skeptical about the lofty OBP but for argument's sake, let's say those numbers are sustainable and that Gose can deliver exactly that line for the next several years. Would you take that?

BRef has his WAR at 0.4 and FG has it at 0.9. Prorate his PAs to a full season's worth and you're looking at somewhere between 4 and 9 WAR. To that I say, sign me up. That's some top shelf performance for almost no money at all.

Now, of course, the real question is what kind of OBP can we really expect from Gose? OBP is where most of his offensive value will be derived (his SLG figures to be low given the organizational mandate to turn him into a singles hitter -- to which I don't object). If Gose goes to AAA when Rasmus returns, which I fully expect, he can make a serious bid for the starting CF job next year by performing in Buffalo, something he's not yet done.

absolutely not....should have sold high on Rasmus last July.....dealing him soon would seem appropriate. Aside from the long ball, Gose is better in every respect.

Rasmus is a career .750+ops good defensive CF (.790+ vRHP), with two seasons of top-5 CF in mlb performance by age 26.

Colby is only four years older than gose. At gose's age, he was in the middle of an .850+ops season and was arguably the best CF in baseball that year.

He is tremendously better than gose, who needs a lot of improvement if he ever wants to be a regular mlber.

I am with Chuck.  Gose's plate discipline appears to be significantly improved.  When Rasmus is healthy, he gets the job back and Gose gets a pat on the back for a job well done with encouragement for similar performance in Buffalo.  The club really only needs two of Gose, Rasmus and Cabrera to be back in 2015. 

It is highly unlikely that the club will trade Gose unless they've got Rasmus under contract at least for 2015.  It is conceivable that Pompey would be ready by 2016. 

Anthony Gose is getting bunt hits, a decent number of walks, stealing a few bases, hitting a few doubles. He's hitting better than expected and not as good as we'd like. If he ever hits HRs, I'll be shocked because that's not his job. Getting On Base for his speed and super-star Defense is his job. Making people obsessed with OPS happy is not.

I wouldn't worry about Lawrie's moving back and forth between 2nd Base and 3rd Base. He's a great athlete, and usually plays a deep 2nd base on shifts for batters. He just might be our new 2B.

Lind had 100 PAs against LHP in 2013. Even playing full-time with a healthy back in 2009 in 2009, he only got 179 PAs. 

Anyways, I am glad that Gibbons has seen the error of his ways and not surprised that Lind has responded with superior performance. I've got to say, though, that his .400 BABIP is pretty amazing.  His LD rate is down.  His IF fly rate is way up.  He's still slow.  He is hitting .389 on ground balls this year (career .215); whether it is because he is hitting the ball harder or whether he is just getting lucky  with their placement, I don't know.  Maybe he's playing a lot of horseshoes with Mark Buehrle. 

I'm adverse to pulling Lind in a game just because some loggy comes in to pitch, as a RHP might be in the next time he's up. Some LH Starters have opposite splits and do not do well against LH Batters, I'd start Lind then. Most LH Starters do quite well against LH Batters and against those Starters, I'd definitely sit Lind.

Thanks to stoeten at djf for pointing this out about gose:

Gms 1-10: 32pa, 7bb, 7k, .438babip, .304/.484/.435/.919
Gms 11-21: 31pa, 2bb, 6k, .273babip, .214/.267/.214/.481

Whatever new approach he had seems to have worn off pretty quickly.

I really hate arguing against gose because i've defended him for so long against so many who wrote him off, and i still think he might have a decent mlb future, but i just don't see how we can possibly keep him ahead of a rasmus/pillar platoon, or even be all that confident in having him as our starting cf next year.

I wouldn't say worn off.  He took the 3-2 pitch from Nathan that was close. 

If he keeps hitting 70% ground balls, he's going to have a BABIP somewhere around his career major league mark of .337.  His K rate and his IsoP rates are both down (as you would expect).  My only regret about sending him down is that I think Kevin Seitzer is the right batting coach for him. 

I would have agreed with you on Opening Day, but I think two months of games is enough to say that the Rays and Sox are not what they were last year. After two months the prior evidence (our expectations for the teams before OD) and the posterior seem to lead to the conclusion that there is a very small margin among the teams in the AL East.

Said another way: I have no idea how things will play out, sure the Sox/Rays could be back in things at the end of July, but any advantage I thought the Sox/Ray/Yanks had in April -- that ought to be wiped from our minds.

I think "small sample size" has become a cliche as bad as "I am in the best shape of my life" or "take it one day at a time", but 30ish PA, holy small sample size Batman.

Gose only had a .317 OBP in 124 Buffalo PAs, which is almost identical to the .316 OBP he had in 443 Buffalo PAs last year. Maybe Kevin Seitzer is a miracle worker, but I'd want to see a lot more success from Gose before declaring him the Chosen One in centre.

I would have agreed with you on Opening Day, but I think two months of games is enough to say that the Rays and Sox are not what they were last year. After two months the prior evidence (our expectations for the teams before OD) and the posterior seem to lead to the conclusion that there is a very small margin among the teams in the AL East.

Perhaps.  I guess what I am saying is that in this case it is also important that the Rays are 12 games out (more so than if it were the Orioles who were/are a club with less talent than the home 9).  The Red Sox did not look like a 97 win team even at the outset of the season (maybe 88-92 depending on your view) and the Rays did not look like a 92 win team at the outset of the season (maybe 84-88 depending on your view), but just about everyone expected them to be in contention at a minimum. 

"....AA imo did the most important thing when adding borderline mlb bench parts....he acquired a whole helluva lot of them..."

He similarly acquired a helluva lot of relief pitchers, and was often ridiculed for "hoarding assets" but in fact the current situation is showing just how many assets are needed to provide depth for the bullpen.  With all the injuries this season (Santos, Wagner, Stilson) and mediocre performances (Delabar, Jenkins, Rogers), the bullpen depth has eroded fast.  It's good that AA accumulated assets such as Rasmussen and Korecky to give the Jays a couple of options at this point in the season. And with Buffalo so close, the Jays can continue to rotate pitchers into the 7th spot in the bullpen every 10 days to keep them fresh.  The Jays have been relatively fortunate that they haven't had a lot of extra-innings games and their starting pitchers are going relatively deep into games now, but they can't assume that that luck will always continue.

Originally I thought that the East would be a three team race between Yanks/Rays/Jays.  At this point I think it's the Yanks I worry about the most.  It doesn't look like this is the Yanks year -- but to this point nearly their entire offense except Solarte has underperformed.  I think this is a good offensive team.  And when CC gets back their starting pitching looks pretty solid.  If they start clicking they're dangerous.

Agreed, china. We might actually underrate our relievers in AAA. We literally have an entire bullpen down there that we shouldn't hesitate to use in a pinch - Wagner, korecky, rasmussen, tepera, stilson, valdez, jenkins, and even rogers.

All good arms pitching well in relief down there.


"I would have agreed with you on Opening Day, but I think two months of games is enough to say that the Rays and Sox are not what they were last year"

No clearer example than the red sox' OF.

Last year their ellsbury - victorino - nava/gomes outfield was somehow worth 14.2 war, double what they were worth collectively the year before. This year, with victorino battling core muscle injuries since the offseason, ellsbury gone, nava regressed back to career minor leaguer norms, and the corpse of grady sizemore playing regularly, their outfield this year has so far been worth -0.7 war, literally replacement level, and a good 15 wins less than last year - and its hard to see where any meaningful improvement will come from. None of bradley, sizemore, or nava is a safe bet to suddenly not be replacement level this year, and the more gomes is forced to play vs. RHP the more his marginal 1-2 win value as a platoon player is diminished. Victorino would be a safer bet to be worth a couple wins the rest of the way...if he was healthy, but he's been fighting abdominal/hamstring issues for months now with no improvement, and he's no spring chicken anymore.

That's a 15 win difference just from the OF (maybe 10 if a couple if them turn it around big and soon), and its not like the rest of the roster is riddled with expected improvements, either. The surprise years for buccholz and doubront in the rotation last year aren't being repeated this year either, though at least there they have some young talent that might fill the gap.

I'm still annoyed that the red sox reclamation OF last year was so much better than the jays supertalented OF. Thankfully that doesn't seem to be the case this year.

"It doesn't look like this is the Yanks year -- but to this point nearly their entire offense except Solarte has under performed."

McCann and Ellsbury have been well below what you'd expect, but it would not be at all surprising if Jeter, Roberts, Beltran, and Soriano are simply not good offensive players anymore. They're all 36+.

"And when CC gets back their starting pitching looks pretty solid."

Maybe if it was 5 years ago. This CC led the league in earned runs allowed last year, and looked even worse in 8 starts this season.

And whatever good forune the Yankees may be due over the rest of the year, they already have a tab of 6 games owed to Mr Pythagoras.

After April the Jays were 12-15 and I think at the time, only 3.5 GBL by May 3rd (13-17 - last place). The difference in wins was never more than 3 games.

Right now the Jays are 35-24 and are 4.5 games ahead in their Division. The Division is much more spread out now with the difference in wins being now 6 games.

Since May 3rd, Toronto won 22 games while losing 7. And approximately, New York wins 13; Baltimore wins 14; Boston wins 12 and Tampa Bay wins 8.

So is Toronto running away with the Division? I think Yes.

The other interesting thing about April is it is a bullpen melt down away from being a 15-12 month or even better.  In other words, except for the very unusual bullpen explosion, the team played almost as well in April as it did in May.

So far Gose is at 0.4 WAR and Rasmus has -0.6.

What matters is that Rasmus is a free agent and will be looking for a long contract, preferably away from the RC turf.

McCann and Ellsbury have been well below what you'd expect, but it would not be at all surprising if Jeter, Roberts, Beltran, and Soriano are simply not good offensive players anymore. They're all 36+.

I hope you're right.  Personally, I expect that Beltran, Soriano, McCann, Ellsbury, Sabathia and Kuruda will be significantly better than they are at the moment by season's end.  Solarte I expect will be worse and the rest about the same.

If the Team we have right now was here at the start of the Season, how much better could they be?
1) 31 March: No way Dickey gives up 6 ERs or Relief 3.
2) 06 April: No way Hutchison gives up 6 ERs.
3) 10 April: No way Dickey gives up 5 ERs.
4) 12 April: No way they lose 2-1 in 12 innings.
5) 17 April (Gm 2): Bullpen Meltdown.
6) 20 April: Bullpen Meltdown.
7) 23 April: Bullpen Meltdown.
8) 24 April: Bullpen Meltdown.
9) 26 April: Bullpen Meltdown.
10) 29 April: Bullpen Meltdown.
11) 02 May: Bullpen Meltdown.
12) 03 May: Bullpen Meltdown.
13) 09 May: Bullpen Meltdown.
14) 11 May: Bullpen Meltdown.
I don't know how much better the Jays could be, but it is sure fun speculating. Any where from 35-24 to 49-10.

A knuckleball pitcher without a knuckleball is one of the saddest things to watch in baseball.

To be fair with Gibbons, last time he had Lind he was an elite bat that didn't need to be platooned

He was no such thing. When Gibbons was dismissed in June 2008, Lind was a minor league slugger having a fair bit of difficulty cracking the major league lineup. Making Lind an everyday player was pretty much the first thing Cito Gaston did when he took over.

let's say those numbers [.255/.377/.314] are sustainable and that Gose can deliver exactly that line for the next several years. Would you take that?

Hell yeah! Gose's speed allied to one of the ten best OBPs in the league? Hell yeah! (With feeling.) It is not even remotely sustainable, of course. I'll beat Gose in a footrace before he does that in the AL.

I'm adverse to pulling Lind in a game just because some LOOGY comes in to pitch, as a RHP might be in the next time he's up.

I see your point, but don't worry about it. When the LOOGYs come out, it's the seventh or eighth inning - Lind's spot isn't likely to come around again unless we get into extra innings. And if you're even thinking about pinch-hitting in the 7th or 8th, that means it's a game situation, that you either do something good right this second or you go home. So maybe in the 11th inning Eric Kratz has to bat against a hard throwing RH - at least you're still playing.

The only thing worse is swinging twice at a pitch that has trouble finding the strike zone and giving away TWO outs.

What matters is that Rasmus is a free agent and will be looking for a long contract, preferably away from the RC turf.

That's one thing that matters. But fielding the best possible team in 2014 also matters. Maybe you can trade Rasmus and improve the team, but maybe keeping him is best for the team.

And as someone said the last time this came up, finding a team that's in contention, needs a CF, is willing to give up MLB-ready parts, and has money is a fairly narrow market. More teams are likely to be interested in Gose than Rasmus.

Lindy's dream season (minus the back injury) continues...

this is the inning that Dickey gives back the lead.

Hooray.  Good decision by Gibbons to remove Dickey.

So predictable. Why is dickey so bad now?

Wow!

If this means less tolerance for walks, I am four square behind the new pitching plan.

Dickey needs to talk to someone about what is more a mental issue than a physical one. That being said, a physical checkup might help. Or even giving Nickeas a start instead of Thole might help. I have no idea what else to do.

Outstanding job by Loup. Dickey, on the other hand, really has to work on his shutdown innings after the Jays score.

That's the knuckleball. If you think it's frustrating to watch, imagine that you're a Tigers fan.

I think Loup already did his part for tonight, would have kept him in the dugout.

Loup still looks very sharp to me. Huge DP with a man on and none out and the heart of the Tigers' order up in the 7th.

Thrilled to see Gibbons get Loup through 2 innings there, and that Brett Cecil still exists.

Loup is so good.

Janssen is a money closer, cecil and loup are as good a pair of lefties as there is in baseball, and redmond is a good longman.

If only our righty power relievers could get it together. Hopefully dusty keeps pitching well and santos comes back strong.

Massive insurance run on second (Reyes) at the moment.

Cashed in. Solid situational hitting by Melky.

The Jays have been criticized for their Rule 4 drafts, but their 2014 bullpen has benefitted from some good picks:

Janssen: 2004 draft, 4th round
Loup: 2009 draft, 9th round
Cecil: 2007 draft, 1st round (supplemental)

Considering how Norris (2011, 2nd round), Pompey (2010, 16th round), and Stroman (2012, first round) have done this year, the Jays' track record is looking somewhat better than it did a year or two ago.

And McGowan! (2000, 1st round)

That's four very good homegrown relievers - arguably the best four relievers on the staff this year.

Lindy's dream season (minus the back injury) continues...

Thank god. Couldn't bear to look at him otherwise. The beard is bad enough; and then he takes off his hat.....

Love to see his confidence though, taking the first pitch.

Hard to fathom why Dombrowski didn't talk to the Jays about Fister. Their bullpen is dreadful.

Is there any possible justification, given Gose's level of play and the team's need for more pitching, for bringing Rasmus back and playing him as the everyday CF?

Happ v Verlander for the sweep.

Seems like a lopsided matchup, but low-velo verlander has been very hittable.

Sweeping the central leading tigers right after sweeping the AL leading As would be some kinda impressive.

"Is there any possible justification, given Gose's level of play and the team's need for more pitching, for bringing Rasmus back and playing him as the everyday CF?"

How has Gose's rapidly declining .678ops made a 26yr old top-5 CF in baseball last year expendable, exactly?

Here are Melky, Bautista and Lind's collective stats tonight:

15 PA, 8 H, 1 BB, 4 doubles, 1 HR, 5 R, 7 RBI (4 two-out RBI)

Just another night at the office.

How has Gose's rapidly declining .678ops made a 26yr old top-5 CF in baseball last year expendable, exactly?

What makes Rasmus a top 5 CF in baseball? Calling him something doesn't make it true.

"....What makes Rasmus a top 5 CF in baseball?....."

How about addressing the other half of his comment?  The part about Gose's poor and declining OPS?   There's nothing in Gose's numbers in the minors or majors that suggest he'll be a better hitter than Rasmus.  Gose has an edge on defence and base-running, but that doesn't compensate for Rasmus's far superior record on offense (whether you choose his career numbers or his more recent numbers). 

EE is reportedly suffering from back tightness. It must feel near-impossible for Gibbons to occasionally rotate Encarnacion and Bautista out of the lineup, but given their heavy-swinging ways, targeting 140 or so games for them instead of 155-160 games would probably be a good idea. The goal should be to have them in good shape and adequately rested during the stretch run and in October.

"What makes Rasmus a top 5 CF in baseball? Calling him something doesn't make it true."

Last year, at age 26, amongst all centerfielders Colby finished 4th in wOBA, 4th in wRC+, 5th in OPS, and 6th in WAR.

Why not keep both? Start Rasmus and use Gose as a fourth outfielder. Rasmus probably doesn't have a huge amount of trade value right now anyway (good but inconsistent and injury-prone CF who will be a free agent after the season).

Gose took longer to understand who and what he is than Rasmus did. Colby has speed, but Gose is a game-changer with his speed. Colby is a very good CF, but Gose is just that much better. Colby will hit for big power, and be slightly below average at all others offensive categories, except Strikeouts, there he will excel. Gose will never hit for much power beyond doubles and triples, but will never strikeout like Colby does. Gose is learning to hit well at this level and walking more than before. Pitchers have adjusted to him. It's his turn to adjust to them.

It's still to early to make any decision on CF yet.

Relievers for tomorrow will be interesting. Delabar is a wee bit undependable, may or may not be available (or should or should not). Loup pitched two innings (a star performance) so he's unavailable. Cecil is a little on and off lately, so available or not? McGowan's 0.1 and Jenkins 1.0 might let them be available, but it might exempt them from too much.

Janssen and Redmond are available for what is needed by them. Let's just hope Happ has a good day.

If the season ended today, the Rays would have the first draft pick of 2015. There's no way they're not selling at the deadline.

Keith Law just posted his final Top 100. Could anyone with insider pass on who he has in the Jays draft pick range, 8-12?

8. Michael Conforto
9. Aaron Nola
10. Luis Ortiz
11. Derek Hill
12. Bradley Zimmer

Other names linked to the Jays: Toussaint 13th, Beede 14th, Turner 18th, Pentecost 22nd, and Hoffman 25th.

BP just posted their latest mock, and they have the Jays going Turner and then Hoffman, with Toussaint going 13th to the Padres.

Gose will never hit for much power beyond doubles and triples, but will never strikeout like Colby does.

Hold on one danged minute there. There are good reasons to expect that Gose will strike out even more than Rasmus as a major leaguer. He has so far: Gose has struck out in 27.1 % of his MLB plate appearances; Rasmus has struck out in 24.5% of his MLB plate appearances. Which is consistent with their minor league performance: Rasmus struck out 19.6% as a minor leaguer, Gose struck out 23.4% of the time.

In other words, Gose struck out almost as often in the minors as Rasmus has in the majors. I don't mind strikeouts all that much, but let's at least try to see these players for what they are.

Oh sure, facts. So that has to be a requirement now when making assertions?

Watching Jose Bautista this season has been pure unadorned joy.  He's got the energy of a pup, the skill of a craftsman and the smarts of an engineer. All of the extraneous stuff has been pushed into the background.

He and Encarnacion could probably both use a day off in each of these long stretches of games in June.  It's easy enough to get Bautista a day off- when Rasmus returns, keep Gose for a day or two and start Gose in RF one day against a RHP.  For Encarnacion, the best strategy would probably be to send down Kratz and bring up Goins; you can then start Lawrie at 3B, Goins at 2B, Lind at 1B and Francisco DHing against a RHP.  You could do it with existing personnel but with the disadvantage of starting Tolleson against a RHP. 

Hold on one danged minute there. There are good reasons to expect that Gose will strike out even more than Rasmus as a major leaguer. He has so far: Gose has struck out in 27.1 % of his MLB plate appearances; Rasmus has struck out in 24.5% of his MLB plate appearances. Which is consistent with their minor league performance: Rasmus struck out 19.6% as a minor leaguer, Gose struck out 23.4% of the time.

In other words, Gose struck out almost as often in the minors as Rasmus has in the majors. I don't mind strikeouts all that much, but let's at least try to see these players for what they are.

I'd call it pretty much of a draw actually.  Rasmus' K rates annually in the major leagues 2009-2014: 18.3%, 27.7%, 22.1%, 23.8%, 29.5%, 32.9%.  ZIPS projects him to strike out 28.1% the rest of the season.  Gose's annual major league K rates (in small samples): 31.2%, 24.2%, 20.6%.  ZIPS projects him to strike out 25.5% the rest of the season.  Obviously, there's a wider error bar on Gose's strikeout rate than on Rasmus'.  Neither one of them is exactly stable, but there is a pattern of increasing K rates for Rasmus and decreasing ones (with a huge caveat) for Gose.

Watching Jose Bautista this season has been pure unadorned joy.

Agree whole-heartedly. And is it just me, or is he playing right field better than he has before? Even if he's probably lost a step or two.

I do like Gose - he seems to fit somewhere on the Gary Pettis-Devon White spectrum, probably somewhere in the middle (closer to White than Pettis, I would think.) Pettis and White both came up with the Angels, and both wasted some time at the beginning of their careers while frustrated coaches tried to teach them a completely different way of hitting: shorten your swing, make contact, use your speed. That almost never works. It's just not who those guys were - they were free swingers, they were going to strike out a lot. You just have to live with it.

3Baseball Prospectus has the Jays playoff odds over 70% now. Wow.

Thanks for the draft info James. Just hoping we don't see another "wtf???" pick like Bickford last year

It's not just you, Magpie.  He has been playing right-field extremely well.  I also don't think he has lost a step compared with the last few years; it may be that he has learned how to deal with the recurrent ankle sprains that probably hampered his mobility. It is possible to deal address this problem by strengthening and training the sural muscle near the ankle.

Aside from a couple of baserunning errors early in the year, his focus has been intense, both at bat and in the field.  You can see it in the way he has been playing the angles on balls off the wall, for instance.  How many times has he played it just perfectly this season? 

As Magpie said about Devon White & Gose. I think White took off with the Jays and that only happened when he was about 28 years old. White would have been a 4th Of otherwise.

FYI:4 1/2 game lead on Baltimore now, 6 on the Yankees, 8 1/2 on Red Sox and 13 on the Rays (woohoo!).  Jays playing at a 600 win percentage (97 win pace)

So if the Jays play at 500 then they get 87 wins.  To catch the Jays (if they play 500 ball) the Red Sox would need to play as well as the Jays have so far for the rest of the season, the Orioles 550 ball (89 win pace).

If the Jays play at a 525 pace (85 win pace over 162) they'd have 90 wins.  To move ahead of them the O's need to play at a 580 pace (94 wins over a full season) while the Rays would need to play at a 660 pace (107 wins over a full season).

Boy this is a lot of fun... having a Jays team in first in June for the first time since 2000, second time since the glory years.

Devo had been sent to AAA the year before coming here as an 'attitude adjustment' by the Angels. I remember that and wondered why the Jays wanted a potential trouble maker who hit 217/290/343 that season.  He sure showed why the Jays wanted him quickly with that amazing defense and a 116 OPS+...his OBP pre Toronto was sub 300, once here it never again dropped below 300 for a season. 

Hard to know with players. Sometimes a change is needed to get them going.  Hopefully Gose has learned from his demotions whatever was needed to make him a useful ML player.  With his defense and speed even a 320 OBP could be valuable.  Hopefully the Jays keep working on getting his K's down and his strike zone judgement up.  A 369 OBP from him would be heaven sent.

Anyone who has Gose issues must check out (The Legendary) Devon White's stats. If one can do it so can the other. Gose will get there much faster.

Devo had been sent to AAA the year before coming here as an 'attitude adjustment' by the Angels. I remember that and wondered why the Jays wanted a potential trouble maker who hit 217/290/343 that season. He sure showed why the Jays wanted him quickly with that amazing defense and a 116 OPS+...

I seem to recall reading that the Angels wanted White to be more of a slap hitter to take advantage of his speed. When the Jays got him, Cito told him just to hit naturally.

I still remember the first time I saw Devon White play. I was in the fifth deck, and a ball was hit up the left centre field gap. My first thought was, "Argh, a double", and then I saw White run down the ball effortlessly, not even at full speed. Whoa, I thought.

As for Gose: he only needs to take one step forward to be a regular at Devo's level, and two steps forward to be a star. He's young enough to do it, but the last two steps are the hardest.

Gose will get there much faster [than White].

Then he'd better get a move on. When White was one year older than Gose is right now, he was hitting .263/.306/.443 in the AL, with 24 HRs, 87 RBI, and 32 SB. That was 1987, and White was playing RF because the Angels still had Gary Pettis. The Angels promptly traded Pettis and turned CF over to White the next year.

Of course, 1987 was the year of the home run, and White never again matched his rookie total. I do think a pretty reasonable expectation for Gose would be White's age 25 season, when he won his first Gold Glove with the 1988 Angels: .259/.297/.389, with 11 HRs and 17 SB. (White was never really a dominant base stealer despite his dazzling speed - he just didn't have the knack for it)

OK. Then I am convinced, we keep Gose.

Gose's career major league line is .242/.306/.353.  He is 23 years old.  There are a number of different approaches possible for him.  With his bunting skill, the slap approach may work better than for Devo.  In which case, a .260/.330/.360 line seems to be a reasonable target. 

With Encarnacion getting the day off, Gibbons has Navarro DHing, Kratz catching and Lind at first.  Personally, I would  prefer Francisco DHIng and Tolleson at second with Navarro catching.

I suppose Kratz being Happ's catcher pretty much dictates everything else.

"In other words, Gose struck out almost as often in the minors as Rasmus has in the majors. I don't mind strikeouts all that much, but let's at least try to see these players for what they are."

Agreed. For all this talk of rasmus' weaknesses at the plate, Gose has the exact same ones.

They're actually very similar hitters in style. Both have major contact issues (low avg, high Ks), both have good to very good patience and draw walks, and both have some pop in their bat. Neither of them can hit lefties either. Rasmus is just better in every area.

That's not really a slight on Gose - Rasmus is just very good. Gose might still be a player in the end but likely never as good as colby.

With Encarnacion getting the day off, Gibbons has Navarro DHing, Kratz catching and Lind at first. Personally, I would prefer Francisco DHIng and Tolleson at second with Navarro catching.

I was thinking the same. Particularly since Navarro had last night off. With Verlander pitching they're not likely to win a blow out, so play the defence.

That's not really a slight on Gose - Rasmus is just very good. Gose might still be a player in the end but likely never as good as colby.

Rasmus reminds me a lot of what you might call mid-life Vernon Wells, when Wells was past his peak and no longer a Gold Glove center fielder, but was not yet a liability. Like mid-life Wells, Rasmus is okay in center field, hits for low average, strikes out a lot, has okay speed but doesn't steal bases, and hits for more power than most center fielders. He is what he is - not a star, but handles the position well enough to play on a good team.

I think there's lots worse things than having two players who can play center field and not hurt the team. Good teams always used to have this kind of depth back before teams had to carry 12 or 13 pitchers.

Today's starters:

Happ 4.50 xFIP
Verlander 4.59 xFIP

Oh, and their average fastball velocity on the year:

Happ 92.4 MPH
Verlander 92.2 MPH

"Rasmus reminds me a lot of what you might call mid-life Vernon Wells, "

Interesting comp. Both highly touted 5-tool prospects with an early career start and inconsistent track records. They were a bit different as hitters - verno was a good contact hitter with poor patience, colby a poor contact hitter with good patience - but still an interesting comp.

I don't think we have to compare him to midlife wells, though - a comparison to young wells works just fine. Don't think there's much difference defensively. Colby doesn't have a GG but he did win some defensive award(s) last year iirc. The defensive stats seem to like them both about the same at the same age.

Offensively the comparison is definitely interesting:


Wells 22: 103pa, 103wrc+
Wells 23: 648pa, 95wrc+
Wells 24: 735pa, 133wrc+
Wells 25: 590pa, 106wrc+
Wells 26: 678pa, 102wrc+
Wells 27: 677pa, 128wrc+
Wells 28: 642pa, 83wrc+

Colby 22: 520pa, 89wrc+
Colby 23: 534pa, 130wrc+
Colby 24: 526pa, 90wrc+
Colby 25: 625pa, 83wrc+
Colby 26: 458pa, 130wrc+
Colby 27: 143pa, 105wrc+
Colby 28: ----

Pretty close comparison. Both with two big peak years at a similar level, with a number of mediocre to poor years in between. Though Rasmus' poor years were worse overall than verno's...at least until vern started running into wrist injuries.

Also, a big caveat is that Wells was a true fulltime player, while Colby's big years involved a lot of platooning.

So mostly because of the platoon split issues, verno was better at the same age.

Right at this same age verbo signed that huge contract extension....and promptly injured his wrist. The next few years alternated awful and very good....83wrc+, 118wrc+, 84wrc+, 126wrc+....and also somehow the defensive metrics started seeing a very poor defender at the same time. The jays moved him after these four years and then he stopped alternating good and bad years in favor of just being bad.

Not sure what the comp tells us exactly, but i think its fair to compare Colby to Wells at the same age, along with that platoon caveat.

Uh oh, i think i'm about to have to start defending gose from the critics again....

colby a poor contact hitter with good patience

Rasmus' career walk rate (8.5%) is basically league average.

The draft is apparently on MLBTV which is listed as channel 415 on Rogers.

Fair enough. Wells was basically a .280 hitter with a 6.5bb%, colby's more of a .250 hiter with an 8.5bb%. They both ended up with a similar obp, and both had similar power (~.190iso)

At the end of their age 26 seasons, via fangraphs:

Wells: 2848pa, 6.2bb%, 12.9k%, .196iso, 108wrc+, +5.2bsr, -4.5df, +12.5war
Colby: 2663pa, 8.7bb%, 24.1k%, .188iso, 103wrc+, +13.3bsr, +15.7df, +13.0war

Albeit i believe the defensive rating for wells is based on more rudimentary metrics than the ones used for colby.

After happ gives up the tying run (but does a good job limiting the damage), juan and brett bring the back to back thunder to break the game open.

The bottom of our order is going to be kind of ridiculous when colby gets back.

Lawrie started the year embarassingly cold for a couple weeks, then got red hot for a few weeks to gain most of it back. He's levelled off the last few weeks (but nowhere remoteky near his ice cold start), but may be ready for another hot streak. His ops is finally comfortably over .700 at .720, while his avg and obp are finally approaching the low water marks of .250 and .300. A hot streak now might be able to get his overall line back up to comfortable above average by midseason.

Verlander has $140M coming to him over the next 5 seasons.

I see from Gameday that Happ walked the leadoff guy in the 7th with a 3 run lead.  I hope that Avila is his last batter.

And as I type, Gibbons makes the move.  Yes, it's P-K4, but it still gets a thumbs-up from me.

Looks like Chad Jenkins wants to stay up here for a little while. 1-2-3 8th finishing it up with Miggy

There's a lot of talk about Gose vs. Rasmus at the plate, but I'm not sure if CF is a position where you need as much offense as possible. I'd like to have plus defense from CF, SS, and C. The Jays don't seem to be doing too badly with Gose's defense -- quite the contrary. I've heard a lot of varying opinions about Rasmus's defense. There's no consensus there.

It looks like the Jays miss Wainwright and Wacha in this weekend's series and send out Stroman, Buehrle and Hutchison.  I imagine that there might be a few people down at the Dome...

Sit EE, hit 3hr & score 7 vs Verlander. Ho hum. No big deal.

Man i am getting used to sweeps.

I retract my earlier skepticism about Jenkins.  He's a useful guy to have around.

Another win for Happ. Surprised to see Janssen used before the save situation came up.  I was expecting the well rested Redmond today.

Well, it's another sweep.

They've gone 19-4 without Rasmus. It's a bit like discussing how much they need Jenkins.

Janssen threw 4 pitches in his 2 outings in Detroit.  Sure he has to warm up, but it's a long way from two 18-20 pitch innings.  Keeps the rust off too.

Wow. The Jays now have the third-best record in all of baseball, and the third-best run differential. Wow, again.

It's a good time to be a baseball fan in the Bay Area: San Francisco and Oakland rank 1 and 2. And it looks like it might be a good time to be a baseball fan in Canada too.

It was a save situation for Janssen. The tying run was on deck.

95 wins for the Jays this year?

It was a save situation for Janssen. The tying run was on deck.
It all makes perfect sense then,

That's like 10 saves in 3 weeks for Janssen with an ERA of 0. 
Might be in the early running for the Cy Young along with Buehrle.

95 wins for the Jays this year?

Well they're on pace for 98 at the moment. Why limit ourselves?

That Verlander contract is scary (as is Cabrera's).

It's funny - Rogers's cheapness this past off-season is starting to look like prudence (even if luck has a fair bit to do with how events have unfolded). While missing out on Kazmir and Hudson hurts, a lot of the other players people - including me, in some cases - were pining for have been mediocre or worse: Ellis, Infante, Santana, Ubaldo, McCann, Nolasco...

Instead, the Jays ended up with Navarro, Francisco, Hendriks and Tolleson, and paid next to nothing for them. Pretty good job by AA, I'd say. You could say that "value" is the new overspending.

Lawrie is at .240/.289/.428 with a .255 BABIP. If that BABIP regressed to the mean, that's a pretty good looking infield bat, even with the struggles and slumps Lawrie has endured this year. I don't worry about Lawrie.

The Jays have enough of a cushion that they shouldn't rush Edwin back. If he needs 2 weeks, give Dan Johnson a shout. It's vital that the team has a healthy Bautista and Encarnacion down the stretch, and though it's hard to like I wouldn't mind if Gibby sat Bautista here and there vs. a weaker starting pitcher just to make sure he can make it through the season in his current form.

Anthony Gose is 6 for his last 33 with 10 Ks. If Rasmus were back this weekend, it's obvious who would be sent down.

Absolutely. I would also rest Reyes and Cabrera from time to time. No point in running out of steam in September or October. Be smart.

It's a good time to be a baseball fan in the Bay Area: San Francisco and Oakland rank 1 and 2. And it looks like it might be a good time to be a baseball fan in Canada too.

It's also a good time to be a Canadian baseball fan in the Bay Area :-)

The Jays just beat Sanchez, Porcello and Verlander in a three-game series in Detroit. That is impressive. And they did it without Buehrle, Rasmus and Santos (and EE for the final game).

I can't wait to see what happens at the trade deadline. I have a feeling AA that this year he's going to add an interesting piece or two - maybe a #2/3 starting pitcher, a second baseman or a quality reliever.

Baltimore lost so now it is official.  The Jays now have a bigger lead than they ever had in 1992, the first World Series season.

Take that in for a minute... the team that had Morris,Key, Guzman, Stieb, David Wells, Hentgen, and David Cone in the rotation at times.  The one with Henke/Ward closing.  The one with guys like Alomar, Carter, White, Olerud, Winfield, Jeff Kent.  That team NEVER led by as much as this team does right now.  Just 4 times all season they led by 5 games.

Wow.  This is fun.  Next target is 8 games, the most they led by in 1993 and 1991.  FYI: The biggest lead the Jays ever had was 9 1/2 in 1985 from end of games on August 2nd through August 4th.  37 different days in first by 5 1/2 or more.  That team had 99 wins in the end.

OPS+

Winfield 138 ----- Bautista 177
Alomar 130 ------- Lind 171
Olerud 127 ------- Encarnacion 165
Maldonado 125 ---- Francisco 153
Carter 120 ------- Cabrera 130
White 90 --------- Rasmus 104
Borders 85 ------- Reyes 96
Lee 83 ----------- Lawrie 91
Gruber 72 -------- Navarro 82

Kent 110 --------- Tolleson 151
Bell 88 ---------- Pillar 60
Griffin 53 ------- Izturis 78
Myers 80 --------- Thole 108

Tabler 66 -------- Diaz 25
Ward 168 --------- Gose 91
Sprague 71 ------- Goins 17
Knorr 97 --------- Kratz 76





ERA+

Guzman 154 -------- Buehrle 197
Key 115 ----------- Hutch 118
Morris 101 -------- Dickey 97
Stotts 91 --------- Happ 102
Stieb 81 ---------- Morrow 70
Cone 161 ---------- Stroman 58

Ward 209 ---------- Janssen o_O
Henke 181 --------- Loup 172
Timlin 100 -------- Redmond 122
Eichorn 95 -------- Cecil 114
Macdonald 94 ------ McGowan 95
Hentgen 76 -------- Delabar 81
Wells 76 ---------- Wagner 53
Linton 48 --------- Santos 47

Really enjoying this season with my Giants and Blue Jays both in first place. Got a laugh out of SF picking Beede in the draft today.

I used to be quite optimistic about Gose, given his young age for the level he was playing at, but I just don't see the offense developing. If you adjust his 2012 Las Vegas stats for the park and league he was playing in, the last 3 years at AAA all look basically the same. His OPS so far with the Jays this year is slightly lower than last year. Yes his OBP is better, but his SLG is down 100 points. Small sample size, of course. Despite his speed, as a base stealer he has been caught 34 times in 98 attempts in AAA the last 3 years. He's still young, and I still think he has a chance to be very good, but he's got to start taking some forward steps. My estimate of how well he projects to hit in the majors has dropped a fair bit over the last year or two.

With all the recent injuries at Buffalo, and with Santos still not back, I was starting to get a little concerned about pitching depth.  But the depth is rapidly being replenished.  Sean Nolin is back, and he starts for Buffalo tonight. Deck McGuire has just pitched his third consecutive excellent game for Buffalo, seemingly getting better all the time.  Chad Jenkins has been extremely impressive this week: he pitched 3.1 innings of scoreless relief against the Tigers over two consecutive nights when the bullpen was thin and desperately needed his help.  (Why does he seem to do better at the major-league level than he does at the AAA level?)  Radhames Liz has still not allowed a single run (and only 6 hits) in 12.1 innings at New Hampshire and Buffalo.   And today the Jays acquired RHP Luis Ayala as another depth piece for the bullpen, signed to a minor-league deal.  He's 36 but has pitched somewhat solidly for the Yankees and Orioles over the past three seasons.  And of course there are still Liam Hendriks and Esmil Rogers at Buffalo.  That's a pretty good package of depth arms to have as options for the 6th starter and 7th and 8th bullpen slots.  And eventually there will be Santos, Wagner and Stilson too.

Luis Ayala is a nice depth signing - he's pitched in the postseason in each of the last 3 years, so that says something. If he joins the team, he'll be the 57th and most likely the final member of the "played for the Expos & Blue Jays" club.

With Goins struggling mightily in Buffalo, I guess that the back-up 2B/SS/3B option is Kawasaki. 

The depth this year has turned out to be a strength of the club rather than a weakness.  Full credit to Anthopoulos. 

Chinafan, while i'm not jumping on the Liz train, our pitching depth is starting to look pretty impressive - not with old vets, but with actual legit young(ish) talent.

There's a decent chance that a bunch of Dunedin arms get promoted after the all-star game. All of Norris, Cole, Boyd, and maybe even Graveman deserve promotions.

And if they do, suddenly the Jays' upper minors have two complete starting rotations full of young, pretty legit talent.


AAA

S.Nolin (24): 40.0ip, 3.27fip
L.Hendriks (25): 56.2ip, 3.01fip
D.McGuire (25): 19.2ip, 3.52fip (AA: 60.1ip, 3.47fip)
C.Jenkins (26): 33.2ip, 4.38fip
K.Drabek (26): 59.2ip, 5.11fip

AA

A.Sanchez (21): 59.1ip, 4.47fip
M.Boyd (23): 21.2ip, 4.45fip (A+: 36.2ip, 1.54fip)
D.Norris (21): -------------- (A+: 56.1ip, 1.60fip)
T.Cole (24): ---------------- (A+: 72.1ip, 1.97fip)
K.Gravemen (23): ------------ (A+: 38.2ip, 2.84fip / A: 26.1ip, 2.38fip)


That could be a pretty decent collection of legit young and talented arms in the rotations, especially considering how barren everyone considered our upper minors to be coming into the season.

One of the things that I found most encouraging yesterday was Lawrie's home run off Velander. It could be just me, but it has seemed that the majority of his home runs this season have been on breaking balls down in the zone. Yesterday's shot came off a 93 MPH fastball up in the zone - something I can't remember him doing recently. It would certainly bode well for his second half if in addition to his ability to take the ball to the opposite field he could start turning on good fastballs again.

Lawrie's home run was on a 93 mph fastball at the top of the zone on the outside corner.  I am glad that he hit the home run, but generally speaking I hope that he lays off that pitch (except with two strikes).  His pop-up rate this year has been a big issue and that's a pitch that he most often will pop-up if he makes contact.  Now, the 370 foot line drive home run to right on a slider on the outside corner waist high in Tuesday's game was what I like to see.  He can pull the pitch middle in. 

I wonder what Seitzer thought about it.

The nice thing is the Jays had a ton of talent in the lower minors last year and talent can climb quickly. 

AA really did do a good job this past offseason under the radar.  None of us noticed it, but all those 'so what' signings really added up.  He always talked about the importance of ML and minor league scouts, watching for who was ready to explode or just needed a tweak here or there.  A lot of it was lottery picks of course, but boy did a lot pay off. 

Francisco: 156 OPS+ overall, in June (4 games) still has a 786 OPS and I have trouble (when expanding further) getting it lower than that.  He really hasn't slowed down too much and isn't a free agent until after the 2017 season
Tolleson: 150 OPS+ overall, 0-2 in June, 1 for his last 7, but that is really stretching it.  Has been more than anyone hoped for and isn't a free agent until after 2019
Kratz: 80 OPS+, not too good but seems to have a rapport with some of the pitchers so as a catcher that is #1
Hendriks: 2.31 ERA in 2 starts, back to AAA until needed again. Sweet.
Rasmussen: 4 games, 2 IP 2 H 1 BB 2 SO 0 R - no complaints
Korecky: 1 1/3 perfect innings

Clearly a better job finding diamonds in the rough.  Some guys are flopping (Romero must be near the end, Drabek not impressive) but mostly we're seeing good signs this year in the majors and with the backups (Liz looking good for a callup, Bibens-Dirkx doing well in AAA, Hendriks killing AAA) and with the kids (McGuire doing well, Nolin looking good, etc.).  It certainly pushes AA to be higher risk/higher reward in the draft as many of these pieces should be here for a few years and he might be feeling confident he can keep finding 1/2 decent stuff without breaking the bank ala last winter.

Long term for the Jays you want draft picks to produce Roy Halladay, John Olerud types - guys who can contend for Cy Young's and MVP's.  Average is nice to get but should be the backup not the target (which they were under JPR).  Better development is key too - I wonder if they changed anything after last year that not all of us are aware of.  A couple mil in the minors on development might pay off very handsomely.

Agreed Mike, it wasn't the pitch location that I would like to see him chasing, but rather the ability to turn on the pitch type. It has seemed that he has been unable to pull better fastballs this season with any kind of authority, needing to take the ones he does make contact with the other way. The fact that he was able to turn around a good fastball was encouraging regardless of the prudence of chasing the pitch in the first place.

Here's a good article explaining Seitzer's thinking about Lawrie's at bat versus Verlander.
http://sports.nationalpost.com/2014/06/05/toronto-blue-jays-apply-hitting-coachs-philosophy-again-in-sweep-of-detroit-tigers/

Not exactly, laketrout.  It's a bit of a technical question whether you want a hitter to attempt to pull that pitch.  Encarnacion surely can and so can Bautista, but both are better off to take it to centerfield.  In Lawrie's case, it is probably more urgent that he not try to pull it.