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The Jays are 4-11 since doing nothing at the Trade Deadline.


Coincidence? I think not. 1994, anyone?

Tonight:
Happ (8-7, 4.20) vs Fiers (2-1,  1.29)

Tomorrow:
Dickey (9-12, 3.95) vs Nelson (2-3, 3.86)

The Brewers are an offensive powerhouse, although that fact seems to have gone under the radar. The only teams that score more runs than Milwaukee either use  a DH or play a mile above sea level.

Jays vs Brewers | 67 comments | Create New Account
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Mike Green - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#292260) #
Jonathan Lucroy, MVP candidate?  Hard to believe, but it's true.  He is likely one of the five best players in the NL this year, and depending on how you tackle the pitch-framing issue, maybe the best position player in the league.
Gerry - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#292261) #
Seeing the Jays hit against Fiers reminds me of the Jays at-bats against Chris Young in Seattle last week. Lots of fastballs in the 80's but up and down in the zone.

I had a theory about Mark Buehrle's effectiveness earlier in the season. Most pitchers today throw in the 90's so Buehrle at 83 is a major differential from what hitters are used to. Maybe pitchers who throw fastballs up in zone in the 80's are the new market inefficiency.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#292262) #
How odd... your starter is pulled in the 4th and the first reliever you use has 4 pitches and is out of the game?  Why?  McGowan was a starter earlier this year so going 1 or 2 innings shouldn't be an issue.  So often odd choices are made.
Gerry - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#292263) #
Brewers wearing out the warning track tonight.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#292264) #
Shi Davidi has a column up on Sportsnet on the Jays' offense that tracks closely the recent debate on this site - right down to analyzing the team's performance over the last 63 (63!) games versus its May performance.

Reminds me of when his column on the Jays' drafting record came out right after Gerry's article on the Box on the same subject.
TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#292265) #
Why? McGowan was a starter earlier this year so going 1 or 2 innings shouldn't be an issue. So often odd choices are made.

Some clever reasoning behind it, actually. The pitcher was due up so he wanted to be able to pinch-hit the next inning without burning his long-man. (With runners on base, we would've seen a real pinch-hitter.) So you use a short reliever first and then let your long-man go a few innings before the pitcher's turn comes up again.
TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#292266) #
Coincidence? I think not.

Well, the two teams that made the biggest moves at the deadline, the Tigers and the A's, both have losing records since then also.
finch - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#292268) #
Pompey promoted to buffalo!!!
uglyone - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 12:48 AM EDT (#292270) #
Looks like the team has quit to me. Pretty embarassing stuff, really.

Nice to see pompey promoted, at least.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 01:03 AM EDT (#292271) #
Good to see Drabek make a clean return to the bigs. If he can be solid then the pen will be nice even if Janssen leaves.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#292273) #
Well, the two teams that made the biggest moves at the deadline, the Tigers and the A's, both have losing records since then also.

I agree.  The one that stings a little was Andrew Miller going to Baltimore.  The O's and Jays both needed a little relief (with Janssen not at top form after the food poisoning).  The O's got him for a medium level pitching prospect (would Sean Nolin have been an equivalent?).

Good to see Drabek make a clean return to the bigs. If he can be solid then the pen will be nice even if Janssen leaves.

Concur also.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if he ends up as a closer and a successful one at that. I have always felt that pitchers with Drabek's profile who have had arm surgery are better off in the pen.  Hutchison is of a different type- he always had good control prior to the surgery.  I think that he'll get it back.


The promotions to Buffalo might be partly about trying to assist a competitive team to make the playoffs.  It doesn't really matter much whether Pompey or Norris get their high minors experience in double A or triple A, and if they can help the Bisons make the playoffs and get some playoff experience along the way, so much the better.
rfan8 - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#292274) #
A little off-topic, but was that Siddall on the TV broadcast last night? Whoever it was talks too much. It was not a relaxing experience.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#292276) #
Sad to look at the standings today.  Jays were 6 up in June, now 9 back.  Tigers are in the Wild Card #2 slot, Jays are 4 1/2 back.  Almost time for AA to look at trading away vets instead of adding.

In truth it might help the team ala 1998 if he can find a new home for a few of them.  Rasmus especially as Gose might be a better all-around player right now.  If Rasmus could get through waivers then trading him makes a lot of sense as he is a free agent and I doubt the Jays make the qualifying offer at this point.  Buehrle would be worth trying to clear waivers with and if he doesn't then it becomes a question of if the $19 mil he'd cost in 2015 can be better spent elsewhere.

Still, there is hope at this point but it is fading very fast.  The Jays need to get on a winning streak if they don't want AA to start clearing out a few guys before September 1st. 

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#292277) #
The top six team defences in the AL according to fangraphs are in order: KC, Baltimore, Boston, LAA, Oakland, Seattle. The top six pitching staffs according to fangraphs are:  Seattle, NYY, Detroit, Boston, Tampa, Cleveland.  Ordinarily, you'd see a greater correlation between winning and pitching than winning and team defence, but not so in the AL this year.  The Orioles actually got fewer WAR from their pitching staff than the Blue Jays.  Incidentally, the bottom six in team defence were: Cleveland, Houston, CWS, Minnesota, Detroit and Texas. 

One of the strange things about the deadline deals was the heavy price paid for "ace" starters paid by teams with a noticeable but not insurmountable lead in their divisions.  Those leads are now gone (probably in no small part due to the lost position players).  The Tigers may or may not make the playoffs at all (but still could win the division of course).  The A's will likely make the playoffs but may have to play a wild card game.

John Northey - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#292278) #
Deadline deals are not the make or break - it is setting the team up right pre-season that matters most.  AA did a lot of things right in-season, getting spare parts for next to nothing, calling up kids and shuffling fast enough to find the right combos mostly.  The problem was not fixing 2B in the offseason and not finding the ace for the rotation then that he wanted.  Adding those mid-season would've been nice, but having them all year would've helped more.

For 2015 second base is still an issue, as will be CF/LF.  Decisions on the pitching staff will be key for 2015 as well - kids can perform as well as vets but with a higher risk, are there kids ready to step in?  It looks like it but hard to say.

Right now it is clear certain guys are being looked at VERY closely by AA.  Pompey getting to AAA after starting the year in A+ is a big sign of confidence but lets hope it isn't hubris ala Travis Snider.  Lets look closer at the comparison...
Pompey at 21: 868 OPS in A+, 851 in AA, 74 K vs 49 BB in 444 PA - over 600 PA that would be exactly 100 strikeouts
Snider at 20: 891 OPS in A+, 818 in AA, 901 in AAA (Vegas), 803 in majors, 154 SO vs 61 BB in 559 PA in minors, 23 K vs 5 BB in majors in 80 PA.

So in each players big climb year the OPS was higher for Snider in A+, for Pompey in AA and we'll see after that.  But for K's Pompey is on a 100 K pace while Snider was over 150.  That is a big difference, bigger than the one year age difference.

As to how Snider is doing now - he has played 108 games, 258 PA and has a 272/342/444 121 OPS+ line with just 52 K's, or a 121 K per 600 PA pace, easily his best.  At 26 this might be his career year and he'll become a pumpkin again in 2015 but right now Pittsburgh has to be happy.  Meanwhile Brad Lincoln was sent to Philly (2 1/3 IP) for Erik Kratz and Rob Rasmussen, and Kratz was traded later on for Danny Valencia.  So which would be better to have right now, Snider or Valencia and Rasmussen?
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#292279) #
Snider and Liam Hendriks or Valencia and Rob Rasmussen?  Probably the former.

There is another big difference between Pompey and Snider.  Pompey is by all accounts a fine defensive centerfielder.  On average, defensive ability in centerfield peaks earlier than hitting ability.  Snider's line from age 20-25 was .241/.303/.398 and he produced 1.7 bWAR; this was obviously a very poor development result.  If Pompey put up the same slash line, it wouldn't be great but he might add considerable value.  For instance, in 1989 with the Angels, Devon White went .245/.282/.371 for a wRC+ of 84 but added enough with the glove that he was a 4 bWAR player in that season alone.  I am not saying that Pompey will be as good defensively as Devon White, but merely that he can add considerable value as a 9th place hitter if he hits like Devon White in a poor season. 

Chuck - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#292280) #
You know you are buried deep in the doghouse when a guy with a career slash line of 227/267/351 in over 900 PAs vs. RHP is taking playing time from you, as he will be this afternoon.

After a ridiculously torrid start to his Jays career, Francisco's numbers have come tumblin' down to right around his career rates (OPS+ is 105 vs. career 99). It would seem that all the AL pitchers have finally caught up to him.

Chuck - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#292281) #
A couple of remarks about the Brewers...

Carlos Gomez seems like a punk with too much attitude, but he has blossomed into quite a player. For years he looked exactly like your typical Baseball America prospect. Fast, strong, power potential, but no strike zone judgement to speak of. And while his career has seen him improve every year starting at age 23, I figured his peak was the 101 OPS+ he put up two years ago (even if he was not 27 yet). But since then, he has elevated his game to star level. I never saw this coming. (It should be noted that his punkness works in his favour, as his OBP is boosted by his HBPs).

Garth Iorg is not only alive, but is coaching in the majors! Maybe I'm the only one who didn't know this. It would have been fitting, therefore, to have had Rance serve as Tabler's replacement in the booth this series. They say that everything in life repeats, but another platoon with guys named Rance and Garth? I'd be willing to better dollars to donuts on that one.

John Northey - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#292282) #
Francisco isn't just slumping, he is in a coma.  A 250 OPS in August after a 851 in July.  Something is seriously wrong and I suspect he has an injury and is playing through it as that is just too much of a drop.

I suspect injury because the Jays have been terrible about the old macho 'play through it' crap.  Right now anyone in AAA would be more useful to the Jays than Francisco is.  Through the end of July he was hitting 242/314/517, since 077/122/128 (14 games).  That isn't the league figuring him out, that is complete collapse.  Only in 2 of the 14 games did he have a positive WPA (win percentage added).  Once when he walked as a pinch hitter (his best WPA), and when he went 1 for 2 with a double.  In AAA you have Jared Goedert (724 OPS) and Andy LaRoche (705 OPS but lifetime 841 in minors) at 3B.   If you prefer to leave Valencia at 3B full time until Lawrie returns then call up Goins or someone to backup everyone in the infield.  But keeping Francisco off the DL when something clearly is wrong is a bad idea.

Of course, maybe he is healthy and he just lost it all of the sudden.  Don't see that as likely but if so then what?  I still say find a phantom injury and get him off the field for a bit.
James W - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#292283) #
NO thanks. Even Pat Tabler is better than Rance Mulliniks at broadcasting. Yikes!
Chuck - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#292284) #
Rance may be dry and humourless, but he has insights to offer. Tabler is milquetoast (and Buck is a Dunning-Kruger poster child).
Thomas - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#292285) #
I agree. Maybe Rance would wear thin over the course of a full season, but I'd much prefer to get a dose of his insight than Siddall last night or Tabler's low mediocracy for the umpteenth time.
Chuck - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#292286) #
The talking heads (Blair, Barker) are dumping on Rasmus and, to a lesser degree, Kawsaki. Apparently Jerry Howarth did some critiquing of their defensive play yesterday.

The concensus seems to be that the team would be better served with Gose in CF and Goins at 2B. I'm not in a big hurry to defend Rasmus, but Kawsaki has, subjectively, been playing a solid defensive 2B. Yes, he made a terrible throw yesterday that cost the team a run, but other than that, he seems fine out there. Goins is better defensively of course, but the difference in their hitting makes things at least a wash.

JB21 - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#292287) #
Never, ever, listen to the taking heads.

Carlos Gomez is a punk now? Because he has fun playing baseball? I'd take that punk on the Jays any day. Not only is he one of the better players in the game he's also one of the most exciting.
Chuck - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#292288) #
Carlos Gomez is a punk now?

No, I think he has always been a punk.

Because he has fun playing baseball?

You building a straw man here?

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#292289) #
Bruce Springsteen was called a punk; apparently "punk rock" originated in writings of an English critic about Springsteen's music of the mid 70s, sometime before the Sex Pistols. To paraphrase the Boss, you can take Carlos out of Milwaukee, but you can't take Milwaukee out of Carlos.


JB21 - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#292290) #
No, I think he has always been a punk.

Why?
Chuck - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#292291) #
Why?

Probably the way he was brought up.

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#292292) #
Dickey 90 pitches, runner on 2nd, one out, 3-3.  Do you pull him?  The day off tomorrow makes the decision a bit easier, I think. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#292293) #
Fortunately, Jose Reyes makes the decision to let Dickey hit seem like it might have been OK. 
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#292294) #
Is this a Ball Game or Batting Practise?
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#292295) #
And then R.A. takes matters into his own hands by illustrating why it would have been better to pinch-hit.  Leaving aside all the after-the-fact stuff, batters are hitting .290/.375/.508 the third time through the order this year against Dickey.  He was not particularly on today.  You could make a decent case for removing him even if there was a DH, but given the game situation and the fact that the club has an off-day tomorrow, Gibbons clearly ought to have pinch-hit for Dickey (likely with Navarro and put the pitcher in the 7 slot afterward).
dan gordon - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#292296) #
Francisco's line since May 21 - .183/.246/.382/.628. He's been very bad for a long time. That OPS is actually almost as bad as Valencia's career OPS vs righties of .618. With the current roster, and Francisco hitting this poorly, I guess putting Valencia in there vs a righty is going to happen. You're not going to suddenly put Edwin in there at 3B and play Lind at 1B.

I always liked Mullinicks as an analyst, despite the fact that he was absolutely incapable of pronouncing Izturis.
JB21 - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#292297) #
Probably the way he was brought up.

Assuming you're joking here.
Chuck - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#292298) #
Weird inning of pinch-hitting for Gibbons. With Kawasaki poised to face a LHP, Gibbons brings in Tolleson knowing that a RH would be forthcoming. Tolleson hits like a pitcher against RHP but can't be removed since he's the last 2B. Why not PH with Reimold instead and then bring Tolleson in for defense?

And then Navarro instead of Lind (against a RHP who was not likely to be removed)? If Gibbons wanted to use Navarro at all, he could have pinch-hit for Thole earlier when Thole was facing a LHP.

There must have been a plan to all this but I don't see it.

vw_fan17 - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#292300) #
Looks like the team has quit to me. Pretty embarassing stuff, really.

Just what I was thinking. They're so uninspired looking. Wonder if that 19-inning win did more harm than good? I don't have time to watch the full games, so I often watch the MLB condensed games. Seeing Bautista end every other inning on a flyout is just depressing.. He still has an OBP of > .400, so I know he's not the only one hurting the team..

Then again, one or two come-from-behind wins could do wonders, as could getting Lind and EE hitting at full tilt again, maybe JB at 3rd, Reimold in RF? Can JB with horrid defense at 3rd be worse overall than Francisco with no bat?


uglyone - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#292302) #
Well there's some life in them yet. Makes a world of difference when Joey comes up with big hits with runners on. Lifts the whole team.

Very iffy call by gibby to let dickey hit in a tie game with a risp, when he was already on 90 pitches and getting hit pretty hard. Seems a big out to sacrifice just to see if a struggling pitcher could give you one more inning...especially with a dsy off tommorrow and most relievers available.

And reyes is kind of on fire lately, eh?
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#292303) #
Nice win, another 1 game winning streak. Nice to see this as the start of something big. Disappointing if it's not.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#292304) #
On an unrelated note, Shark had a disaster start today for oakland.

Oakland gave up one of the best prospects in baseball for this:

Pitcher A: 9gs, 3-3, 4.07era, 4.09fip
Pitcher B: 7gs, 1-5, 6.75era, 7.17fip

Total: 16gs, 4-8, 5.01era, 5.17fip


Yikes. Not exactly as planned.
scottt - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#292305) #
The Jays are in a good position to finish second in the East and not make the playoffs.

Shades of 2006.

uglyone - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#292306) #
Esmil Rogers working as our secret double agent tonight in new york. Sweet.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#292307) #
Rosenthal hyping up Graveman in his latest tweet. The Jays could save a ton of money by trading Buehrle, letting Morrow/Happ go, and taking their chances with Dickey-Stroman-Hutchison and two of Sanchez, Nolin, Graveman, and Norris. Or maybe keep Happ, since $6.7M isn't outlandish, and then go with one of the four other options in the 5th spot.

Used the saved money to upgrade 2B, LF (assuming Melky is gone), and the pen.

John Northey - Wednesday, August 20 2014 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#292308) #
I strongly suspect the Jays are going to try to trade Buehrle and/or Dickey this winter just to free up cash and to open a slot for the kids.  It all depends on what they can get.  Right now Norris looks like the favorite along with Sanchez for that 5th slot. 

I now expect to see Norris here in September and getting starts as Hutchison is shut down.  Hutch has a 7.38 ERA in his last 7 starts (yes, picked to make it as bad as possible).  4 of those 7 he allowed 6+ runs which is nightmarish.  I expect the Jays to let him start until September then if the team is out of it he'll be benched for the year and Norris in for the remaining starts.  If the team is still in it then they might keep Hutch in there but also might move him to the pen for long relief depending how he does between now and then.

No question the #1 priority this winter has to be finding a solution for 2B closely followed by resigning Cabrera or finding a solid hitting replacement.

scottt - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 03:47 AM EDT (#292311) #
Ideally you move Reyes to second, but I'd be surprised to see that happen.

The team scores enough run. It would help to go defense first down the middle.
Thomas - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 06:52 AM EDT (#292312) #
Norris is being moved to the bullpen in Buffalo. I can't see him replacing Hutchison in the rotation in light of that news.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#292313) #
The schedule from here offers an opportunity for creative use of the expanded September rosters.  After today's day off, the Blue Jays host the Rays and Red Sox for three apiece (Stroman is scheduled to get the extra start), then there is a day off and then they have the Yankees for a weekend series before a day off on Labour Day (I am sure that Rogers wasn't wild about that unfortunate scheduling).  From September 2 to 28, they have one day off.

You can use the additional pitching support to match up batter by batter at the end of a game ad nauseam, or you could use pitchers like Norris, Sanchez and Redmond in longer relief spells as part of an informal tandem starting regime.  There's less risk of bullpen burnout in September is you add quite a few pitchers to the roster. 

John Northey - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#292314) #
That would make sense Mike...  I imagine trying to help cut down issues by limiting most starters to twice through the order in September.  Hutchison though seems to have issues more at the start than the end, at least lately.  Once he gets rolling he does very well.  Dickey is a twice through then hit the showers but the manager doesn't seem to see that - Norris coming in after Dickey in the 6th inning would be wonderful for the team I suspect and would be fun to watch.  Until September maybe use Drabek in that role.

Sadly the Jays have never really shown innovation with starters that I can recall.  Tandems would make tons of sense in September with the limit of twice through the order, with some flexibility if a guy is on a role (ie: let him get one extra inning in if all indicators are on 'woohoo').

Btw, talk about bad timing for my comment about Norris starting in September just before it is announced that Norris is going to the pen in Buffalo.  Sigh.
soupman - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#292315) #
the flipside to the jays adding bullpen arms (almost certain to help everyone) is that all the other teams are also adding to their rosters in the same way. in a september call-up shootout/homerfest i'll take the jays over just about everyone

my hunch would be that lind/bautista/ee/rasmus could all have HUGE months against weaker pitching.

i hope it translates into "W"s
Mike Green - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#292316) #
Dickey is a twice through then hit the showers but the manager doesn't seem to see that

My own view is that Gibbons does have some awareness of the numbers at this point.  There are real countervailing issues about bullpen burnout, and also cultural issues arising from the modern definition of a starting pitcher and an ace.  Gibbons, I think, wants to give Dickey, the ace, an opportunity to win the game unless he obviously doesn't have it that day.  The theory is that the ace is proud of his W/L record and ability to go deep into games, and giving him the opportunity to do this motivates him to do better.  This view is certainly held still by many in the game. Personally, I think that it is a relic of another age when good starting pitchers often would complete 1/2 of their starts in a season.
Thomas - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#292317) #
The Norris news was actually announced on Wednesday afternoon John (not that anyone's expected to keep up with Jays news the minute it happens).

Garrett Richards suffered what looks to be a season-ending injury in Fenway Park last night and Anaheim has already lost Tyler Skaggs from their rotation for the rest of the season, as well as most of 2015. Their rotation is very thin behind Jered Weaver and CJ Wilson, neither of whom have been ace-level performers themselves. Right now their rotation also consists of Hector Santiago and Matt Shoemaker and someone like Wade LeBlanc will probably take Richards' place.

If the Jays wanted to be bold, they could try to capitalize on Anaheim's lack of pitching depth and try to trade Buehrle or Dickey (I'm assuming at least the former has already passed through waivers) to the Angels. Buehrle wouldn't fetch as much in return, given his contract status, but if Richards injury turns out to be sufficiently serious to keep him out into 2015, they may be tempted by a predictable veteran arm for next year, as well.
electric carrot - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#292318) #
The Jays have 35 games remaining.  If they can get hot and go 22-10 up to their final series with Seattle they have a good chance to have that series be pivotal for them for the wildcard.  Don't trade Dickey and Buehrle now. Not time to foldem yet. Especially now when they are almost at full strength and are about to play a bunch of games against teams who have nothing to play for.


Mike Green - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#292319) #
The whole Buehrle/Dickey value question is interesting.  Assuming that 2014 salaries are of marginal importance, Buehrle is contracted at $19 million for 2015 and Dickey at $12 million.  That salary difference is probably a fair free market evaluation of the 1 win difference between them in reasonable projection (Buehrle about 3 WAR; Dickey about 2 WAR).  The Angels actually have a higher committed payroll at this point for 2016 than 2015.  Given their attendance in 2014 and the fact that they will likely make the playoffs, I would probably find Buehrle more valuable than Dickey if I were the Angels. 
Mike Green - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#292320) #
That said, I do agree with electric carrot.  Better to hold them than to fold them.  It's a fairly close call right now, but in light of the history of the last 20 years, I'd err on the side of holding. 
John Northey - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#292321) #
Yeah, for now hold on but fall much further back by August 31st and have a deal ready to go that day.  I'd bet on AA having talks in both directions - finding help for now and trading guys for help for later - with an eye on the calendar and the standings.  Most teams know that few deals will happen this week, but as the 31st comes closer it becomes crunch time and teams must make a final choice.

If Dickey is traded so will Thole of course.  That means the Jays would either get a catcher back or have to figure out what to do as Jimenez is on the DL right now (hasn't played since the 1st), Kratz is gone, Nickeas can't hit.  Maybe Kottaras who has a 99 OPS+ in the majors over 853 PA and has played 1B/3B/RF in the majors as well as catching.  Lifetime 810 OPS in minors.
Thomas - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#292327) #
While holding pat and evaluating baed on how the next week goes may be the most ideal option, I think the team would run the risk of losing out because another team dealt a pitcher to Anaheim first. It may take the Angels a little while to get a clear determination on the extent of Richards' injury and perhaps assess their internal options, but AJ Burnett and Bartolo Colon are two names that spring to mind immediately of veteran pitchers on non-contenders who will either retire after the year, in Burnett's case, or are signed through 2015 but clearly not in their team's plans for next season, in Colon's case.
uglyone - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#292331) #
I'll say this much about the homestretch this year - with the awful hitting this month, and with guys like ee and lind just now starting to get enough at bats to shakenthe rust off, i wouldn't be shocked at all to see a big september from the bats.

Of course, i'm not as hopeful about the pitching.
soupman - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#292332) #
how is there talk about trading buehrle? to what end? to trim payroll? for what? free agents have proven incredibly reluctant to come here in the first place. you have a team chirping at management for not adding at the deadline, players who volunteered funds to sign a guy in the offseason...so, this is the ownership that is going to save 20 million next year and...is there anyone that honestly believes that rogers is going to open up the pocket books to spend 5 or more times that amount to land anyone? why would a player want to come to a team run that way?
James W - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#292333) #
Hector Santiago has a 1.39 ERA and 0.99 WHIP since the All Star Break, in 32.1 IP (7 games, 5 starts). If that keeps up, he's their Game 1 starter in the playoffs.
John Northey - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#292334) #
Good point soupman.  Buehrle should only be traded at this point if...
1) someone gives the Jays an extremely good deal (say, for a young 2B who can hit and is under team control for years)
2) the Jays have a far tighter budget than we know of
3) the Jays get someone they really want (not a rip off deal, but a good one for both) and have payroll concerns going forward

Same goes for Dickey.  Now, if we are talking about Rasmus I say take whatever you can get at this point as I think Gose could be just as good for September and beyond.
Thomas - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#292336) #
Soupman, there is an argument that shedding the salary of Dickey or Buehrle may allow the Jays to have a significantly better chance of keeping Cabrera (who it appears may actually want to stay here) or making a run at, for example, JJ Hardy. Hardy is the tier of free agency who could be a possible target, at least in theory.

I don't think anyone is under any illusions that the Jays will be major players in free agency and I'm certainly not sure that Rogers would permit the team to reinvest the entirety of the $17 million it would save for 2015 if Buehrle were dealt into the team.

However, Mike posed the interesting question earlier of whether Hardy or Cabrera would provide more benefit to the Jays in 2015. I'd ask you to add Buehrle to those two and then rank them 1, 2 and 3 in terms of which players you think would be most important for the team's success in 2015, considering the existing assets.
85bluejay - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#292338) #
I wouldn't mind if the jays were to put Mark Buehrle on waivers and maybe the Angels claim him and his salary
Beyonder - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#292342) #
"Now, if we are talking about Rasmus I say take whatever you can get at this point as I think Gose could be just as good for September and beyond."

Hope dies hard when it comes to certain players, but surely we've seen enough to be relatively certain Gose is not going to be a solution for us in centre field. A career minor league OPS of .712 (over 2800+ plate appearances), combined with a MLB OPS of .645? It's not like he is trending upwards either.

Gose is simply one of those guys who looks good playing bad. He really shouldn't be any part of the team's plans for next year, unless it is as a poor man's Rajai Davis.




soupman - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#292349) #
i think it is being assumed that the jays' payroll isn't pegged to go down in the future as buehrle's comes off the books and as pre-arb guys in the system come up.

i don't think melky will resign, especially not if you make the team worse to resign him. i also think melky will get 6 years, and i wouldn't sign him longer than 3 years. (in other words, i wouldn't sign him)
Mike Green - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#292350) #
I'd ask you to add Buehrle to those two and then rank them 1, 2 and 3 in terms of which players you think would be most important for the team's success in 2015, considering the existing assets.

FWIW, I think that it's Buehrle, Hardy, Cabrera but that it is relatively close.  Budgetary issues and salary demands would probably be the key factor in making decisions.  I am not at all eager that the club trade Buehrle.  Somehow I don't think that Addison Russell is coming back!
Thomas - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#292351) #
I would take the under 6 years on the contract Melky will receive this offseason and give the 6 or over side favourable odds. I think 3-4 years is a much more realistic ballpark.
uglyone - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#292353) #
I still think rasmus gets a bad rap, but i also think gose does to.

Gose has shown the ability to be useful if he's properly platooned. He's a 92wrc+ v. rhp this year, 88 career. He backs that up with a .350obp and .770ops v rhp in his AAA career. And that's with him being young for these levels mist of the time.

That's not worldbeating but with his speed and defense he can be a solidly valuable player in that role. His war this year isn't a fluke.


There is a decent chance that a gose/pillar platoon could give us near league average hitting with plus defense in CF....which is pretty good, really.

And even though i like rasmus, taking a chance on that platoon for league minimum, with pompey pushing hard to steal their spot, sounds like a smart plan to me.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#292365) #
The August 21 birthday team is like a walk down memory lane for fans in their 50s: Felix Millan, Jerry Davanon, John Stearns, Bruce Berenyi, Frank Pastore, Shawn Hillegas, John Wetteland, Tuffy Rhodes, Andujar Cedeno, Craig Counsell, Ismael Valdes, Lou Collier, Jason Marquis, Jesse Chavez, B.J. Upton, J.D. Martinez and Tim Collins.  Ghosts of APBA cards past.  It's actually one of those rare days, where a decent everyday position player  for each position, five actual decent starters can be found, and an actual closer is there.  Unfortunately, there aren't any really good players except Murry Dickson and Wetteland. 

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