Jeter is struggling to keep his numbers above some round but unimpressive thresholds: 250 AVG, 300 OBP, 300 SLG.

Not with a bang but a whimper.

And just like that, all three thresholds are exceeded.

Man, if it wasn't for Jose Bautista....

So still 6 games out in the wild card, needing to pass 4 teams (Oakland now has the 2nd wild card...boy have they crashed).  I'm betting on Seattle making it now even though I think Oakland is the better team just because it seems everything that can go wrong for them is going wrong.

Given that what should the Jays do now?  I'd say it is time to see what the kids can do.  Get Pompey a few starts (just 3 PA so far), give Kottaras a start with Dickey pitching just to see if he can do it.  Keep Pillar & Gose out there as much as possible and forget about Rasmus.  Play Francisco more and see if he can figure out which end of the bat to use again.  Tolleson just leave on the bench with Rasmus as neither is in the Jays future I suspect (well, Tolleson might be in AAA).  For the rotation keep the same guys there but maybe cut Hutchison and Stroman to 5 IP each per start and have Graveman and Norris do tandem starts with them (pitch 6-9 inning each time if they can).  Leave Janssen as the 10th man in the pen as he really seems to have collapsed (8.31 ERA in Sept, 6.75 in August - 3 times over those 2 months allowing 3 ER, scored on two other times) with the HR ball being the killer not to mention he plans on going elsewhere (based on interviews) after the season ends.  Morrow should also be in the 'only if no other option exists' territory.

Just 10 games to go. It was a fun ride and up until the Baltimore series I had hope they could pull it off.  Heck, if they won just 2 of the past 4 I'd still be hopeful (then just 4 out) but now I think it just can't happen without a true baseball miracle and the Jays haven't seen that in a long, long time.

Good plan, John.  I'd give Bautista some rest and some work at first base.  When the Jays face the Mariners, the club should play its best current lineup to be fair to the A's and the other wild card contenders.

Excellent suggestions John. Very little chance of bettering our best recent record of 85 wins. We should also avoid a win total in the 70s for a 3rd year in a row.
Pillar/Gose can be the 4th OF in 2015 if we seriously plan on fielding a competitive lineup next year. Or they can platoon in a full time OF spot. That spot may be an offensive hole. How would Bautista feel about a 2015 team that is not a strong competitor, in the sense of seriously wanting to be elsewhere?

NYTimes had an article on Jeter and Huckaby:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/19/sports/baseball/the-other-side-of-a-derek-jeter-hustle-play.html?_r=0

The more I see of Pillar the less I like offensively but who knows, I'm not exactly a scout (never could tell a slider from a fastball and rarely could see the curve in a curveball which might explain my 'hitting' skills).  That is why I'd like to see Pompey given some serious time this last bit of the season to make sure he has 'broken in' and is ready to help in 2015.

Right now, if no major new players are added, I'd expect Gose/Pillar in CF and Melky to be resigned for LF (no way I see Rasmus coming back).  2B still a mess but probably given to Valencia with Goins or Kawasaki as the backup (both can cover SS) while Izturis is given a last chance in spring.  Mayberry is the OF backup/RH DH and that pretty much covers the bench (one of Gose/Pillar while other plays, Mayberry, Goins or Kawasaki mixed with Valencia sharing one slot, and a catcher).  Tolleson is gone (739 OPS first half, 578 second), Francisco is gone (828 first half, 574 second) is what I expect unless Lind is traded in which case Francisco might stick around.

I really, really hope the Jays can find a full-time second baseman who they can put in place and leave there who is a 2 + WAR player.  The main guys there this year. WAR is BR first, FG second.
Lawrie: 1.7/1.6 WAR in 70 games, but by far best at 3B
Tolleson: 0.6/0.0 WAR in 102 games and dropping
Kawasaki: 0.4/0.4 WAR in 74 games
Goins: 0.3/-0.4 WAR in 58 games
Valencia: 0.2/0.4 WAR in 43 games
Izturis: 0.2/0.2 WAR in 11 games

Pretty much the same (within 0.2 in all but one case) with a net of 1.7 for non-Lawrie BR, 0.6 FG.  So not as bad as it could be, but I think we'd all like more from a regular than any of them could provide (outside of Lawrie). 

FYI: Francisco is 0.7/0.8 WAR in his 103 games while Diaz was -0.2/0.0 in his 23 games.

The two guys a lot here hoped the Jays could pry out of Seattle?  Dustin Ackley is in LF with a 96 OPS+ (1.4 WAR) while Nick Franklin is in Tampa (thus no way the Jays get him) with a 26 OPS+ (19 games) 777 OPS in AAA in 102 games.

Per Fangraphs EE is a 3.3 WAR player. Kawasaki, Goins and Tolleson are zero WAR between them. EE was injured for part of the year so let's call him a 4 WAR player which he was in 2012 and 2013.

Can you trade EE for two 2 WAR players, one for 2B and one for the OF? If you can the team would be the same on paper, but I think it would be better overall as the holes in the lineup kill rallies.

Does anyone know of a study that compares two teams of equal offensive WAR, one with several stars and scrubs vs one with 9 equally performing hitters? I would think the 9 equals would outperform the stars and scrubs.

I think AA should focus over the winter on eliminating the zero WAR positions on the team. If I look at only offensive batting runs on Fangraphs, ignoring defense and baserunning, there are four above average hitters on the team, Bautista, SS, Melky and Lind. The next four, Francisco, Reyes, Navarro and Rasmus are all close to zero. The lower end has to increase for the Jays. And we haven't seen the offensive answer in house.

Can you trade EE for two 2 WAR players, one for 2B and one for the OF? If you can the team would be the same on paper, but I think it would be better overall as the holes in the lineup kill rallies.

Gerry, I would argue just the opposite. I would trade two 2 WAR players for one 4 and one 0. High WAR players are scarce commodities whereas lower WAR players are not.

Having a 4 and a 0 gives you the opportunity to "easily" improve your team, replacing the 0 with someone else. Having a team of decent but mediocre players is hard to improve, since your individual incremental gains will be small (2s to 3s, say). When you have a team of stars and scrubs, you can get better quickly by replacing a scrub with a star (notwithstanding the logistics and money of getting that star onto your team).

There is an adage in sports that whoever gets the best player in a multi-player deal usually wins the trade. And my reasoning above would be why. Top-end talent is rare and should be disproportionately valued from mid-level talent.

Why disproportionately? I have argued before that a proper valuation model would not treat each WAR as equal. The jump from WAR #4 to WAR #5 is more valuable than the jump from 3 to 4, and it from 2 to 3, and it from 1 to 2 and it from 0 to 1. The far, far right end of the normal curve represents the distribution of MLB talent. It is most definitely not a straight line, but rather a curve that drops very fast. The air becomes more and more rarefied the farther right you go, as you get deeper into the talent pool.

I agree with that, Chuck.  If I were trading Encarnacion, I'd be looking for a modified "Glaus/Hudson" deal.  Big Scary Bats have special currency because of the relative certainty of offensive stats.  To trade a Big Scary Bat for a second baseman (with less visible skills and of comparable value) and another piece is something that can be done.  I wouldn't want a Miguel Batista equivalent as the second piece, but something of somewhat larger value because of Encarnacion's favourable contract.  Maybe an average first baseman with good defensive skills like a James Loney of several years ago.

It's not about a 4 WAR talent for two 2 WAR talents, it's about re-jigging of talent to take advantage of the preference for bats and to deal with the duplication at DH. 

Pompey gets the start, but in left-field.  Well, at least, he's in Yankee Stadium with Brett Gardner also there.

I like what I've seem from Pompey at the plate thus far (albeit only 3 of his PA's). Seems to be able to tell balls from strikes at least, and has made some solid contact.

Been meaning to comment on Francisco. No point in going out of the way to give him any more AB's this year. He is what he is. If a pitcher hangs a mistake in the strike zone he can crush it. But anything with good sink that a pitcher can bury is almost assuredly a swinging strike. He can't hit them and can't lay off them. Have him go to winter ball and try to work on recognizing and laying off anything below the knees.

NYTimes had an article on Jeter and Huckaby

Huckaby is a hitting coach in the minors?

Explains a lot, actually.

Ugh. This would have been unthinkable a week ago, but at the current rate it will be a challenge for the team to finish the season above .500. They will need to go 5-4 in their remaining games against the Yankees, Mariners and Orioles to finish with 82 wins.

That was an epically bad at-bat from Valencia with a man on third and one out. Talk about having no game plan, no pitch recognition and no ability to handle the situation. It would have been more reasonable to dive into the dirt and out of the way of that pitch than it would have been to wave at it for strike three.

Huckaby is a hitting coach in the minors?

Boys, this is how you hit a shortstop.

Lawrie's got to be the key for us next year.  If he can stay mostly healthy, we only have to work with the likes of Tolleson, Valencia and Goins for one spot - I can handle that, although we still end up with presumably 3 platoons - CF, 2B/3B and DH. 

I know EE, Lind and Bautista limit roster flexibility, but Lind has 2 more reasonable options years and we can walk away from him fairly easily if Bautista or EE slip further in the field.  For that reason, no chance do I deal EE - certainly not for a couple of 2 WAR players.

I expect Cabrera to be back, Thole, Happ and Lind's options to be picked up, and the rest of the FAs to be gone, with AA targeting the bullpen for upgrades.  As nice as a Hardy or a Martin would be, I just don't see AA taking that route, or Rogers ponying up the cash. 

Frustrating that our pen has been the biggest weakness while guys like Dyson and Jeffress were basically given away..  Jeffress' agent was doing a BP chat and said  "Toronto put in a ton of work on Jeremy and helped to diagnose his medical ailments so for that Jeremy owes them a lot. On the field however, I do not think they ever fully bought into who he is as a player and focused on what he was not.".

 i worry about  AA's use of options on players like graveman when i look at Dyson pitching cheap, quality innings in Miami. 

Kiley McDaniel comment on Pompey (I'm not sure this is advice that AA is likely to heed. It wouldn't be the first time that budget constraints led to an early promotion for a Blue Jays prospect):

"Comment From John
Do you think Pompey is good enough to start in CF next year or should the Jays go out and sign a CF?

Kiley McDaniel: Should go to AA and/or AAA next year. Scouts don’t think he’s ready yet, even though I’m sure someone will point out he had good numbers."

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-prospects-chat-9914/

Looks like the Jays are following the "go for the best draft slot possible" strategy for the remainder of the season..

Why don't some scouts think he's ready?  Trouble with breaking pitches? Or is it something else? Bald statements from scouting types don't impress me at all. 

I can tell you why I don't think Norris or Sanchez is ready to be a major league starter at the beginning of 2015.  Norris has very good stuff, but still quite fragile control.  He relies on batters chasing fastballs up in the zone and he needs to refine his approach so that he can deal with RHBs effectively. Sanchez can throw the curve for strikes, but I doubt that he's able to do that for 6 innings on a consistent basis and I worry about his durability in the starter's role. 

Pompey in CF today with the lefty going. 

Tolleson played that one off to the side instead of getting in front.  Not impressive.

McDaniel probably isn't trying to impress anyone with his comment about Pompey. He's just reporting (in a wide-ranging chat) what he's heard from his colleagues. Personally, I'm always interested in hearing what scouts are saying about Jays' prospects, even it's in compendious form.

I WONDER WHAT THE OUTCOME HAD BEEN HAD IAN KINSLER NOT VETO'D A TRADE TO TORONTO FOR SANTOS... :(

The day after the season I think the Jays should just name Cecil the closer for next year, to avoid any nonsense going into spring training, and so they can focus on other things.

Cecil becoming closer would be amusing. That's what he was at Maryland. Would be coming full circle I guess.

For the rotation, I imagine it will be Stroman, Hutchison, Beurhle, Dickey and Happ, with Norris, Sanchez, Nolin, Graveman waiting at AAA. I doubt we get great offers for any of the vets, so might as well keep them. Unfortunately, they're kind of durable, so it might take a while to get the other kids into the rotation.

Cecil becoming closer would be amusing.

It depends. Coming into 2014, RH batters had always rather enjoyed hitting against Cecil a little more than you'd want them (.285/.354/.486) to enjoy hitting against your Closer. Cecil turned that around quite impressively in 2014, but it was only 139 plate appearances, so who knows how seriously to take it. Gibbons has always protected Cecil from the tough RH batters.

Kinsler for Santos was what we heard of that trade, but there could've been other pieces that we'd have hated to see go away too...perhaps one of the young pitchers we're counting on now.

This winter will be interesting.  What kid pitchers will go to upgrade at 2B/OF and maybe CA?  I am sure the Jays will try to trade Buehrle or Dickey but might need to part with a kid - which order do you put the kids in?
From 'please don't trade' to 'OK, what the heck'....
Stroman, Sanchez, Norris, Hutchison, Graveman, Nolan
The guys in the minors only I hesitate to guess at - figure those who are experts on the minors should go on.

Right now I figure Stroman would take a killer package as would Sanchez as both have shown the ability to be very, very good ML pitchers and have 6 years of control left.  Hutchison has value but might be a 'mid-rotation' guy as peak, not #1 thus easier to let go in a trade.  Norris has #1 potential but little ML experience so would be easier to part with in some respects.  Graveman is one I would be very nervous to trade at this point, when a year ago he'd have been a toss in.  Nolan is a hard one to know, odds are he has little value and I'm surprised he hasn't got into a game yet just as a 'see he can pitch in the majors'.

Some consideration has to be given to the 40 man roster, regarding the Rule 5 draft and the # options left is also important.
How many options do Gose, AJ Jiminez and Drabek have left? No options left means that they have to make the team out of ST. Who is worthy of a 40 man roster spot? S Nolin has 1 option left, he can be a valuable Buffalo to Toronto shuttle guy.

Jiminez was added to the 40 min in Nov 2012, which I think means he has one more option year? 

Drabeck wasn't striking anyone out as a reliever in AAA, and is about to turn 27.  He's done with the org.

I can only really assume that AA is planning on using the bullpen shuttle again next year, with Nolin, Graveman and Jenkins - why else burn the option on Graveman? 

Are jenkins and Delabar out of options? 

It depends. Coming into 2014, RH batters had always rather enjoyed hitting against Cecil a little more than you'd want them (.285/.354/.486) to enjoy hitting against your Closer. Cecil turned that around quite impressively in 2014, but it was only 139 plate appearances, so who knows how seriously to take it. Gibbons has always protected Cecil from the tough RH batters.

Since he has moved to relief, Cecil has done pretty well against RHBs.  Last year, RHBs went .208/.341/.394 against him in 127 PAs.  I checked Cecil's appearances vs. batters.  The two players that Gibbons seems to have wanted him to avoid (since he moved to the pen) were Longoria and Nelson Cruz. He has done well against Adam Jones, Napoli and most of the other RHBs in the division.  Hell, he's faced Miguel Cabrera 9 times in his career- walked  him 3 times, struck him out 4 times and recorded outs the other 2 times.

I think he'd be fine in the role, and that Sanchez and Cecil would make an excellent high leverage team. You could even Dibble/Myers them...

2015 will be interesting with Sanchez.  He clearly has the potential to be a high value reliever in the Duane Ward model (2 inning outings, extremely effective).  Although of note is Sanchez's FIP (2.70) and xFIP (2.88) are impressive but not as 'holy cow' as his ERA (1.19) and I'd like to see his K/9 in the 9 range not the 7's when relieving.

Checking FanGraphs I see we have Redmond leading in IP with 72 2/3 in relief, followed by Loup (67) then a big drop to Cecil (51 1/3 in 64 games), Janssen 42 2/3, McGowan 41 1/3, Jenkins 31 2/3 and Sanchez 30 1/3.  Those are the 'big 7' with no one else having a shot at catching any of them for innings (Delabar was next at 25, Santos at 21, Rogers 20, Rasmussen 11, Wagner 10 - none of whom are on the active roster).  For the big 7 only McGowan has a negative WAR in relief (his 4.80 FIP being used at FanGraphs not his 3.27 ERA or 4.16 xFIP) while Janssen is at 0 WAR - both might be gone for 2015.  Cecil is #1 with a 1.1 WAR while Loup/Redmond/Sanchez are at the 0.5/0.6 range.  Delabar, Santos, and Rogers were negatives.

So who do we want in the pen in 2015?  Cecil, Loup, Redmond, Jenkins should be locks with Sanchez having the pen as the backup plan if he isn't in the rotation.  I think Drabek will get a shot (be nice to get value out of him somehow) and hope Graveman is given a real shot at it as well since he is working on perfecting the 'Rivera pitch' (the cutter) and we all know that can really, really work well if you perfect it.

By remarkable coincidence, Cecil and Aaron Loup have both faced exactly 210 LH batters while working for Gibbons these past two years. Loup, as should be obvious to anyone who's seen him throw a baseball, is going to have a hefty platoon split. He's still faced 346 RH batters during that time, Cecil just 266. That takes planning. Weird planning, but planning nonetheless.

Jenkins should be locks with Sanchez having the pen as the backup plan if he isn't in the rotation.  I think Drabek will get a shot

What about Drabeck warrants a shot?  27 years old in December, injury-riddled, his last good season was 2010.  He wasn't given any more than the bobby korecky / brad mills treatment this season, and our pen was a mess.  His WHIP in AAA as a reliever was 1.38 and he had 17Ks in 28 innings.  he doesn't even profile as a ROOGY.

In fact, I have a hard time calling Jenkins a 'lock' as well.  49 Ks in 97 major league innings?  He's been better with the Jays than in AAA, which screams fluke to me.  he's just too hittable to be a key reliever, although he has value as a 7th / 8th guy. 

I do agree that Sanchez is appealing in the Duane Ward role.  If the Jays are serious about contending next year, that might be one of the only ways to fix the pen in a cost-effective fashion. 

This is the sixth time this season that Kawasaki has batted sixth in the order. If that's not a cry for help...

Sanchez is far more valuable as a starter than a reliever.  If there's any chance that he can make it as a starter, the Jays have to get him every opportunity in that role.  So I just can't see him in the bullpen in 2015.  If he doesn't make the rotation at the opening of the season, the Jays put him in the Buffalo rotation until he is ready.  Yes, I'm familiar with the argument that he doesn't have enough of a repertoire to be a starter yet, but that's potentially fixable.  You don't write him off as a starter until he's had a full opportunity there.  He's only in the bullpen now because of his 2014 innings limit, and because the Jays want to give him major-league exposure as early as possible.  We've already seen with Marcus Stroman -- who was seen as a reliever by many scouts initially -- that there are huge benefits to giving someone a chance to be a starter, rather than putting him prematurely into the bullpen.

[Jenkins] is just too hittable to be a key reliever

Nevertheless, he's a better pitcher than Dustin McGowan, for example, and one of the reasons is that Jenkins doesn't allow as many baserunners, despite the additional hits he surrenders. While McGowan strikes out more people than Jenkins, he also allows approximately twice as many walks and twice as many home runs. Jenkins does exactly what a pitcher who doesn't strike out a lot of hitters has to do - don't walk people and keep the ball in the park.

I wonder what kind of value Hutchison would have as a trade chip.   Given that Buerhle and Dickey might be too expensive to trade and Stroman is probably untouchable, I wonder if you get get a solid young 2b for Hutch. 

Agreed Magpie, definitely Jenkins is better than McGowan, although it pains me to say it given how inspiring McGowan's return has been. 

But if Jenkins is one of our top 5 relievers next year, we are in trouble.  With the run the starter are on - what is it, 26 straight games that are 6+ innings?  - I'm very hopeful that we can have a 6 man pen at times next year.  with all our platoon scenarios, the longer bench could be significant. 

And China Fan, all your points are valid - in terms of maximizing assets long-term, Sanchez starts, period.  But in terms of the 2015 Jays contending, I doubt he's more valuable as a 6th starter than as an ace reliever.   Obviously, we have to see what AA has up his sleeve before making any pronouncements, but as we are currently positioned, I don't see Rogers spending much more than the $130 million or so we've got committed to our core (I'm including Happ and a Cabrera deal in that number). 

And of course, that all goes out the window if Sanchez is dominant as a starter in spring training. 

But in terms of the 2015 Jays contending, I doubt he's more valuable as a 6th starter than as an ace reliever.

In today's pregame show, there was an interview with Sanchez. He said he was looking to hit the weight room in the off-season to prepare for 200 innings in 2015. This could be him simply expressing his preference or a sign that the team sees him as vying for a rotation spot next spring and has communicated such. Barry Davis did not ask the requisite follow-up question to find out. Barry Davis is in no immediate jeopardy of winning a Pulitzer.

"....Barry Davis did not ask the requisite follow-up question to find out...."

You're right, he should have asked the follow-up question to make sure of it, but I also think it is pretty clear (and widely accepted in the organization) that the Jays much prefer to have Sanchez as a starter in 2015 and will do everything possible to make this happen.  This isn't just Sanchez's personal preference, it's the team's preference too, so most people in the Jays organization and press corps are simply assuming that Sanchez should be a starter next season, and should aim for 200 innings, regardless of whether it's in Toronto or Buffalo.  (Let's all hope he pitches well enough to throw those 200 innings in Toronto rather than Buffalo.)   That's why Davis didn't ask the follow-up question -- he just assumed we would know that Sanchez will be a starter next year.

The idea of Sanchez as a closer or set-up guy has been suggested quite a lot by Bauxites, but I honestly think it is an unlikely scenario, unless Sanchez just can't make it as a starter.  Further evidence:  he's getting 2-inning stints in most of his games as a Jays reliever this season.  I know it's not definitive proof, but I believe this is because the Jays see him as a starter, not a reliever. 

Stroman's suspension has been commuted to five games, but this still means that he'll miss his scheduled start against Seattle on Thursday.   The Jays are saying that he will be replaced by a bullpen aggregation, likely beginning with Redmond.  I suppose this is because Seattle is still in the wild-card race, so the Jays feel obliged to muster a lineup of regulars, rather than prospects.  But would it really be the end of the world if the Jays decided to give a start to Graveman or Nolin?  Would it be such a breach of baseball etiquette in September?  We already know Redmond's ceiling, and we know that he's virtually certain to be in the bullpen in 2015, so why not take a look at Nolin or Graveman?  At the current rate, there's little chance of either of them seeing much action in the bullpen.  Thursday seems like the ideal day to give one of them a start, if it wasn't for the "unwritten rules" or whatever.

If Sanchez is put in the pen, Gibbons will have him on the DL by the end of the year.

Seattle is still in the wild-card race

Well, if the Jays take the first three games - and they surely want to finish above .500 - that should put paid to Seattle's Wild Card chances.

Yes. Toronto can pretty much guarantee that the Royals get into the post-season. Which would mean that the longest post-season drought in all of baseball belongs to...

Laugh about it
Shout about it
When you got to choose
Every way you look at it
You lose

Last ten games: 2-8. Reverse that, and they are half a game out of a wildcard spot. No one else wants those spots either, record-wise. A year when the Red Sox and Yankees and Rays are all not good, and a playoff spot can be had for maybe 88 wins...well, today's game tells the tale as well as anything. Not terrible starting pitching, bad bullpen, and a lineup where Kawasaki is one of the best 5 hitters...ugh.

Hey, the Jays finished ahead of Tampa Bay, Boston, Texas and Atlanta - before the start of the season, most of us probably would have taken that outcome. Unfortunately, that outcome has been a season of roughly .500 ball.

In any event, I predicted 77 wins for the Jays in 2014, so I'm now officially a pessimist...

If Sanchez is put in the pen, Gibbons will have him on the DL by the end of the year.

That would be awfully quick. Gibbons won some plaudits here last year for his handling of the bullpen, but I too am not a fan. 

So now the Jays 'tragic number' is 2.  Any combination of 2 Jay losses or KC wins will eliminate them from the playoffs.  The Yankees number is 4, Cleveland 5, and Seattle 7 with most teams having 7 games to go.  AL Teams who have not clinched but are in playoff position are Detroit, Oakland, and KC.

In the NL only Milwaukee has any ability to knock someone out.  They have a tragic number of 3 though so odds are the NL playoff teams are Washington, St Louis, LAD (all 3 clinched), Pittsburgh and San Francisco.  Pittsburgh is just 2 1/2 out of the Central lead so there is something to play for there, while San Fran is 4 1/2 behind the Dodgers so it would take a lot for that to change. 

So in the end the Jays are one of the last 5 teams trying to catch up in the playoff race.  An improvement over past years I'm sure but not what we hoped for in July when they were still right in the thick of it.  Hopefully the Jays can get a few wins in a row now just to try to stay mathematically in it until the final series of the year.  3 wins and KC losing 2 of 3 to Cleveland would do the trick - helps that Cleveland still has that faint hope too as a sweep of KC would put them right in the race (1/2 game out) while if the Jays, by some miracle, sweep Seattle while Cleveland sweeps KC and KC loses to the White Sox the Jays could then be 2 1/2 out with 3 to play.  Yeah, very unlikely but still not insanely unlikely.  Cleveland has the fun part - playing the team you have to beat in a must sweep series.

Clay Davenport gives the Blue Jays a 0.00149% chance of making the playoffs. If my math is correct, that translates into roughly 1 in 67,000.

So there's a chance! 

My opinion on whatever anyone in authority says about the 2015 role of A Sanchez is that you should not say anything that you regret saying. Then again if nobody remembers what you said, you are OK.
Covering all the bases is a nice way to avoid conflict. Therefore, A Sanchez if available to the Blue Jays in 2015 because he is not injured or traded will pitch in Buffalo as a starter or in Toronto as a starter or in the pen.
That said quite a few pitchers should prepare in the off season to be starters for the Jays.
Sanchez, Norris, Graveman, Jenkins & McGowan for example can all prepare as starters. Some could go to the minors and others could be on the Jays rotation or pen.
We know that Morrow & McGowan both started the season in the rotation and stayed in the rotation for all of April, but only part of May.
Morrow only lasted 6 starts before he was done. His best start was against Cleveland 5IP 2 earned runs. But he probably was not 100% healthy. McGowan out pitched Morrow in his 1st 6 starts 6.1IP 0ER, 6IP 2ER & 7IP 1ER. He was bad in the other 3 starts which made him inconsistent.
I then compared RA Dickey's 1st 6 starts to McGowan's, it is hard to say who was better so call him inconsistent as well. RA then out pitched McGowan in their 7th & 8th starts and then proceeded to have a good year.
I do not know if McGowan can handle more than 8 starts next year. The important thing is that he has to be more consistent ie better. He has lasted a full year, which is a big positive.

I wouldn't put McGowan on the short list for starters.  Outside of the big 5 (Dickey/Buehrle/Hutchison/Stroman/Happ) the next 5 would probably be, in order, Sanchez/Norris/Graveman/Nolan/Jenkins with guys like Casey Lawrence, Taylor Cole, Roberto Osuna, Matt Boyd, and maybe even Miguel Castro in position to be under consideration if they have a great start/year (ie: trying to get the Graveman/Norris method of rapid climb or for Lawrence a 'career effort' call up).  So there are 10 guys who all have a shot, 5 of which I'd give a chance to well before McGowan.

As to Morrow - his shine is off for me. Since his great 2012 campaign (143 ERA+ in 21 starts) he has had 2 years of ERA+'s in the 70's and injury issues.  Time for someone else to give him a chance.  I'd give him a spring invite with a shot at the pen but no way would I plan on him in the rotation even as a #6 or 7 option.  And speaking of guys whose contracts AA regrets... Romero is going to be on his final season of that contract coming off a 0-3 5.50 ERA in AAA  with 10 BB/9 (yes, ten) vs 6.69 K/9.  Ugh.

I'd give him [Morrow] a spring invite with a shot at the pen

To give Morrow this shot, you'd need to pick up his $10M option. I don't see this happening. I do see another team signing him to a FA contract, maybe a one-year cushion deal, with him being given the opportunity to start.

I agree that McGowan is done as a starter. As impressive and unlikely that it is that he's even healthy and pitching at all after so many setbacks, I don't believe he has been impressive enough as a reliever to make it a given that his $4M option will be picked up. I am guessing yes, but I could see the argument for no.

John, I think I misinterpreted your remark about Morrow. You seem to be referring to how other teams, and not the Jays, should treat him this off-season. I think his future success lies in the bullpen, but I think he'll get an incentive-based contract and be given the opportunity to start somewhere.

I agree that McGowan is done as a starter. As impressive and unlikely that it is that he's even healthy and pitching at all after so many setbacks, I don't believe he has been impressive enough as a reliever to make it a given that his $4M option will be picked up. I am guessing yes, but I could see the argument for no.

What's the argument for yes, Chuck?  I supported the three-year contract, but $4 million for the possibility of a good reliever seems quite rich. 

What's the argument for yes, Chuck?

Frankly, my personal position would be no, but the organization has always seemed especially sympathetic towards McGowan, continuing to give him chances when all hope seemed lost. And yes, I realize how ridiculous that sounds when describing Rogers Corp.

Maybe, $5M later, the organization can safely feel that they've done right by McGowan. And maybe the sympathy thing is indeed a little too rich at $4M for what might be. You know, I am talking myself out of my assumption of yes.

What do people think? Will his option be picked up?

I don't think they want to pick up the option; I think maybe they'll try to reach some kind of deal (I dunno, 2 years at 6 million or something. Whatever they do.) Tell him he's a reliever, now and forever, and that's how he should prepare himself.

My idea was to decline the option and then I'd offer him a spring invite (perhaps with incentives). He wouldn't take it as I figure someone will give him a starting job (or chance at one).

Morrow and McGowan are both really not needed here.  They are under the 'nice to have' but only in the pen.  As I listed earlier I see around 10 options I'd use first before those 2.

Good straight forward question on McGowan's option. Yes or No. I say yes. Anyone keeping score?
McGowan WILL pitch next year, most/all of us are quite sure of that. Will it be for the Jays?
I think that the Jay's will make some moves this off season. I mean a decently significant move.
Thinking about it step by step I wonder when is the deadline for option decisions? I think quite early in the off season. If so then a list of available players is known. List of Free Agents.
Then trades and FA signings are in play.
Given McGowan's history...why would he be in the 2014 rotation but not considered for the 2015 rotation? He may not feel comfortable/confident starting or it is just too risky to his arm.

Well, in 2014 he was more a last minute addition to the rotation rather than a 'yes he will be there' guy.  He flopped after a few starts and had injury issues (shocking) so I would not consider him seriously for the rotation especially with the many options we have here now which would be at the ML minimum (Norris, Sanchez, Nolan, Graveman, Jenkins to name 5). 

I think the question with McGowan is - will he be a solid reliever, and if so is it worth $4 mil?  I think it depends on payroll flexibility and projections on his ability.  If I was the Jays I'd talk to him about a 2 year $4 mil deal while making it clear he will be released otherwise.  At $2 mil a year he'd be worth it and 2 years means the Jays have a chance to regain value if/when he gets hurt again.