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It's January, it's probably cold out, let's talk some baseball...


Super Scherzer

The Washington Nationals winning the Max Scherzer Sweepstakes earlier this week is rather interesting, for a variety of reasons. Firstly, I just think it's a hilarious contract. Not that Scherzer may or may not be worth the money (that's certainly another debate) but because it's structured so bizarrely, with the right-hander having 105 million dollars still owed to him from the Nationals when he next becomes a free agent seven years from now. It just amuses me for some reason. Maybe it's the thought of a 39 year old Scherzer pitching against Washington in the playoffs and beating them, and getting fifteen million dollars from his old team to do it.
In regards to the here and now, it's an interesting arrangement. You can sure ask a bunch of questions about a contract like this, like does the short term budgetary benefit outweigh the extreme length of the commitment? Could contracts like this (perhaps on smaller scales, perhaps larger) become more common if annual salaries for players continue to increase? Is it wreckless, or brilliant?

Another aspect to this deal is with Washington now acquiring All The Pitchers, they've got six very good starters and the luxury of potentially trading one to fill a different area of need. Doug Fister and Jordan Zimmermann (nnice) have been theorized as trade candidates, since both are free agents after the season. Shockingly, Stephen Strasburg has also been mentioned. Shocking in that, when you have a guy like that (young at 25, still fairly affordable and extremely good) you usually want to keep that guy around. But hey, if he's available you gotta try and get him, right? I'm sure Goins, Navarro, Sal Fasano's moustache and a basket of poutine would be a good enough offer. The Nats can even throw in some Expos memorabilia from the basement to make the, uh, salaries match or something.

Another Thought For Debate

Let's say this is a theoretical universe, and that the Blue Jays can sign James Shields instantly if they want to. Assume the money and contract length doesn't matter, it's completely irrelevant to this anyhow. The team is exactly the same otherwise. With these circumstances in mind, my thought is: Would you sign Shields if it gave you a 0% chance of signing, say for example, one of Price or Cueto next winter? Or would you not sign Shields and take a 65% chance of signing one of Price or Cueto for 2016? 


Pitchers and catchers report in just about a month... soon my pretties... soon...

Generic Late January Thread | 251 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
jerjapan - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 11:34 AM EST (#297212) #
Yes for sure to signing Shields.  As others have noted, this team is frustratingly close to being a legit contender.  Shields creates valuable depth in both the rotation and the pen, assuming that's where Sanchez ends up.  This offseason, we've lost Happ, Graveman, Nolin, Jansen, McGowan, Morrow and santos while adding Marco Estrada and a whole bunch of AAAA arms.  This strategy COULD work, but it's making me nervous.  I like the moves thus far this offseason, but if we are finished, I just don't get the overall plan.

It seems to me that if there is a consistent theme with AA's decisions, it's a willingness to take risks and go against the perceived logical moves - this winter, consensus was that we needed to upgrade 2B, the bullpen, and to a lesser extent, 1b and the OF.  we have arguably downgraded in the OF with gose and cabrera out and Saunders in, 2b is the same unless Travis is ready, 1b has a cheap platoon with cast-offs from noted offensive powerhouses Seattle and KC and the bullpen could be anything from solid to dreadful.  However, 3B and catcher are now awesome.  AA seems to be rolling the dice and banking on an improved D to save the pitching, as well as the emergence of some minor league talent.  

we are really counting on significant contributions from at least some of Norris, Sanchez, Pompey, Travis and Pillar, along with finding a few bullpen gems amongst the AAAA arms. 

Richard S.S. - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 12:09 PM EST (#297213) #
I disagree that Saunders and Pompey are a downgrade in the Outfield. I believe Saunders can hit better now that he's not playing 81 games in the mind-numbing Safeco Field. I think that Pompey will easily be better than Rasmus, sometime this year. Rasmus was never as good in Toronto as he was in St. Louis, he wasn't even close. But that really doesn't matter, they'll hit enough. What we have is a massive upgrade defensively in the Outfield, basically game-changing Defense. That's what A.A. has tried to do this off-season, and I think he's succeeded.
jerjapan - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 01:09 PM EST (#297214) #
For what it's worth, Jeff Sullivan at fangraphs sees us as the most logical destination for Shields.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/finding-a-place-for-james-shields/

Lylemcr - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 02:08 PM EST (#297215) #
It looks like if Duquette becomes president, Hoffman might be the compensation. Yikes!
Shaker - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 02:56 PM EST (#297216) #
Should the compensation for Duquette be markedly different than the compensation for John Farrell?
Donkit R.K. - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 03:38 PM EST (#297217) #
...so just how bad of an idea is this Hoffman for Duquette thing?
mathesond - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 03:51 PM EST (#297218) #
Hoffman for Duquette wouldn't be so bad if, say, Dylan Bundy was coming back Toronto's way
joeblow - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 03:55 PM EST (#297219) #
I can't think of many things that would make me more angry than paying compensation of a high-level prospect for a suit. Angry enough to cancel season's tickets.
85bluejay - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 04:29 PM EST (#297220) #
I hear you joeblow & I would be twice as angry - The Blue Jays would be exposed as a joke of an organisation & I certainly wouldn't be attending any games in the coming seasons - Can't wait until Hoffman is hoisting the Cy Young if he is indeed sent to Baltimore.
vw_fan17 - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 04:35 PM EST (#297221) #
I can't think of many things that would make me more angry than paying compensation of a high-level prospect for a suit.

In general, I agree. On the other hand, Duquette seems to have done a good-to-excellent job everywhere he's gone, and he seems to be a baseball guy. In Baltimore, for example, he seems to have done a very good job with a budget that's $20-25m less than the Jays (according to some website I googled).

If they let him "take over" and give him a "reasonable" budget to work with plus some "seed money" for the first year or two, between him and AA, I think it's the kind of thing where you at least have to admit they're trying, not re-hiring the same retreads that didn't work elsewhere and handcuffing 'em to boot. Apropos of nothing, if Duquette is hired, I could imagine Gibby will be on a very, very short leash.. On the other hand, if it's "meet the new boss - same as the old boss (i.e. no payroll increases)", then yeah, what's the point of losing a possibly good/very good player just to maintain the status quo and let the VPs high-five each other for "doing something"?
Gerry - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 04:40 PM EST (#297222) #
First of all I don't think the compensation is going to be Hoffman, as a recent draftee he can't be traded until mid-July. But the worry here is that the negotiations are being handled by Edward Rogers whose knowledge of baseball value and precedent are unknown. There have been leaks today of possible tampering charges from Baltimore. It seems to me that Baltimore are turning up the pressure and waiting out the inexperienced Rogers to try and extract maximum value. It does make me worried.
Ryan Day - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 04:49 PM EST (#297223) #
Apropos of nothing, if Duquette is hired, I could imagine Gibby will be on a very, very short leash..

Anthopoulos, too, I imagine. Will Duquette be happy as "just" President/CEO, or will he want to be semi-GM, too? Or want to hire a new GM of his own?

Since Gibbons was Anthopoulos' pick as manager, can you sack Gibbons without undercutting AA? Unless Duquette fires everyone right away, you could be looking at a season or two of waiting for the axe to fall every time there's a losing streak.

And does it matter? Duquette may be a smart baseball guy, but he'll still be working for Rogers, where baseball is just a brief entry on the accounting spreadsheet.
85bluejay - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 04:50 PM EST (#297224) #
Apparently Beeston was a supporter of Nadir Mohamed in his proxy war with Edward Rogers - with Mohamed gone, it's payback time and Edward Rogers may be prepared to pay a high price to dump Beeston.
vw_fan17 - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 05:14 PM EST (#297225) #
Anthopoulos, too, I imagine. Will Duquette be happy as "just" President/CEO, or will he want to be semi-GM, too? Or want to hire a new GM of his own?

Certainly possible. My take on it is: AA hired Gibby as he couldn't find/attract any other candidates that were much/obviously better, and at least he'd worked with Gibby before. With Duquette at the helm, we might be able to attract a better manager.. OTOH, it seems to me that AA is happy working "in the shadows" so to speak, as a right-hand man, but not the guy with all the publicity. If (and of course, a very, very big if) Duquette comes here, I think he'd be smart to keep AA..
SK in NJ - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 05:28 PM EST (#297226) #
Typically, I'd laugh off the Hoffman talk, but if Edward Rogers is indeed the one handling the negotiations, then I'm expecting the worst and hoping for the best. Having a suit in charge of potentially trading baseball assets is scary.
MrPurple - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 05:29 PM EST (#297227) #
Attract a better manager??? What are they, afraid of the turf? When a major leauge team wants a manager there are plenty of candidates ready to line up for the job. There are only 30 positions and I am 100% sure no one says 'naa, I dont want to manage there.' Gibby was a very odd choice at the time but they certainly  had their pick of anyone who was not currently managing a club. AA chose Gibby because he liked him the best. Nothing more.
BlueJayWay - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 05:57 PM EST (#297228) #
Should the compensation for Duquette be markedly different than the compensation for John Farrell?

Or Theo Epstein, for that matter.
greenfrog - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 07:16 PM EST (#297229) #
Hoffman is a potential #1 or #2 starter, perhaps - perhaps - along the lines of a Lucas Giolito. Do the Jays really want to face him on a regular basis from, say, 2017 to 2024 (or longer)?

No way the Jays should be giving Baltimore an elite prospect for Duquette.
dan gordon - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 07:44 PM EST (#297230) #
Trading a guy who was high first round pick for an executive would be absurd. Heck, the Jays got less than nothing for trading Farrell - the way it ended up, they traded Farrell, David Carpenter and Yan Gomes for Esmil Rogers, as Aviles was just a place holder for 3 days. I can't believe anybody would be stupid enough to trade Hoffman for a front office guy.
Mike Green - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 07:53 PM EST (#297231) #
For me, the hypothetical posed by eephus doesn't really work.  I wouldn't be interested in signing Shields or Price or Cueto at free agent rates.  If you asked me instead whether I would rather have Shields at $70 million for 4 years or have that $70 million available for other uses, the answer is b). 

The Epstein compensation is a more relevant precedent if Duquette signs here. The compensation at the time would be more akin to Miguel Castro perhaps than Jeff Hoffman.  It is completely unclear whether Hoffman will have a better career than Castro, but he definitely has more present value. 





adrianveidt - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 08:19 PM EST (#297232) #
Hoffman is just a prospect. Most of them don't turn into anything useful. There's an unhealthy obsession with prospects because some of them turn into great players. Most of them spend their careers struggling in the minors.
Dave Till - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 08:35 PM EST (#297233) #
If Edward Rogers is actually negotiating compensation for Duquette, I hope he has at least the common courtesy to discuss it with AA. Otherwise, he's just cutting him off at the knees.

Hoffman, heck - I'm worried he'll give up Stroman or something like that.

Question: if Duquette is leaving Baltimore, who is taking the Orioles' side in these hypothetical negotiations? The assistant GM? Angelos? Showalter? Sir Sidney Ponson?
jerjapan - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 10:07 PM EST (#297234) #
I'm no fan of anyone Rogers, but Hoffman is a crazy rumour.  Theo Epstein came in exchange for a relief prospect who pitched last year in Japan.  Theo Epstein is a more valuable property than Duquette. 

The Red Sox apparently asked for Matt Garza and Starlin Castro initially, so who cares that the Orioles want Hoffman?  Or that Buster Olney has dropped this rumour?  It's just one of hundreds surrounding the Jays this offseason.  (and presumably every team out there, I only follow this one) 

Richard S.S. - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 10:25 PM EST (#297235) #
There are many reasons Dan Duquette would want the Toronto Job. GM is as high as he will go for the Orioles. The Angelos' children occupy any upward position he could earn. Buck Showalter wants more responsibility to sign free agents. The Owner periodically tells Duquette who he's signing. That's not an ideal situation.
whiterasta80 - Thursday, January 22 2015 @ 10:35 PM EST (#297236) #
Duquette should be calling Rogers and telling him to call off the deal if Hoffman is the compensation.

Yes to Shields. He's a horse with a history of durability and production in the AL East.

To those who say "he sucks in the playoffs" I say- First... World... Problems...
Shoeless Joe - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 01:55 AM EST (#297237) #
If upper management gave up Hoffman in this deal I would quit if I were AA.
Richard S.S. - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 05:24 AM EST (#297238) #
Question: Hoffman For Duquette and who else?
SK in NJ - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 07:47 AM EST (#297239) #
Agreed. If I were AA, I would definitely resign if Hoffman was traded for Duquette. It would be a complete slap in the face to Alex and his entire staff to throw away a draft pick they spent some $3M on in order to tamper and steal another team's GM. They clearly don't care about AA or the team's success in 2015, because the off-season came to a screeching halt when Rosenthal first reported interest in Duquette nearly two months ago. No trades, no signings, just waiver claims and minor league deals while the suits tamper to get an executive.

Alex had a great off-season that might already be ruined by guys who probably couldnt name 2 players on the team's 40 man roster. What a joke. At this point all we can hope for is sanity prevailing.
BlueJayWay - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 09:17 AM EST (#297240) #
Hoffman, heck - I'm worried he'll give up Stroman or something like that.

If we give up Stroman for an executive I'd cease to be a fan at that point. My Jays fandom would be done in one fell swoop.

This whole thing is becoming a soap opera..
John Northey - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 10:29 AM EST (#297241) #
It very much is at this point.  Hopefully the Jays didn't break any rules at the start of this saga, otherwise it could get uglier still.  Well past time for the saga to end one way or the other. 

The only way I'd give up Hoffman though is if injury reports are poor on him and the Jays now are going 'crap, we wasted that pick'.

SK in NJ - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 10:34 AM EST (#297242) #
I am legit steamed about this. I've never questioned my love for the Jays, even after 22 years of irrelevance, but if they trade Hoffman or any legit prospect/player for Duquette, I might be tempted to just throw in the towel. That would be the worst move in franchise history and possibly one of the worst in sports even if Hoffman never pans out. Spending $3M to draft a player and then trading him for an executive to avoid a $100,000-500,000 tampering fine (per Elliot) would be horrendous. This is not Andrew Friedman we are talking about.
SK in NJ - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 10:45 AM EST (#297243) #
I'm sure people will question my use of "worst move in franchise history", so I'll expand. This is a top prospect for an executive who will have no impact on roster management. He won't be the GM. He will be the team president. That adds zero wins to the roster. At least when a GM makes a bad trade, it's with the intention of improving the team on the field. The Dickey trade was meant to improve the team. I can live with those types of mistakes. However, talent for a non-GM executive has no upside. Even if Duquette is so great that he'd improve the team's chances of winning in the future, you still wasted an asset (potentially of high upside) for a suit.
Mike Green - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 11:06 AM EST (#297244) #
Worst move in team history?  Hmm.  There are some real duds lurking in the club's transaction closet. I wonder what the best and worst single moves made by the Blue Jays were.  Contenders for the best off the top of my head:
  • acquisition of Gillick
  • George Bell Rule 5 pick
  • Murray/Collins/McGriff trade
  • Carlos Delgado signing
  • Felix/White trade
  • Alomar/Carter/McGriff/Fernandez trade
  • Halladay draft
I am hesitant to label any move after the drafting of Halladay as a contender, mostly because the ones that might turn out that way haven't yet developed. I'll let someone else do the contenders for the worst move in team history- I am  not really excited about seeing the Gord Ash trading record remembered, and the name Jimy Williams is not right for Friday. 

Paul D - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 11:15 AM EST (#297245) #
Mike, I'd add Bautista's acquisition as a clear win and one of the best moves ever. Or maybe the acquisition coupled with the extension.
Mike Green - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 11:27 AM EST (#297246) #
Definitely, Paul.
Dave Till - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 11:53 AM EST (#297247) #
Worst moves in franchise history:

- Wells for Sirotka. This ended Gord Ash's career in Toronto.
- Alan Ashby for Mark Lemongello. This (more or less) ended Peter Bavasi's career in Toronto.
- Woody Williams and change for Joey Hamilton. This ended Dave Stewart's career in Toronto.

Honorable mention goes to Mike Napoli for Frank Francisco.

Best moves in franchise history:

- Bautista!
- Obtaining Fred McGriff as a throw-in in a trade with the Yankees.
- The Vernon Wells trade. (If AA hadn't pulled that off, the Jays would have been paying for him until the end of the 2014 season.)
- The Mookie Wilson trade in 1989. Mookie energized that team.
- Devon White for Junior Felix.
- Carter/Alomar for McGriff/Fernandez.
Oceanbound - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 12:14 PM EST (#297248) #
Honorable mention goes to Mike Napoli for Frank Francisco.

That one isn't done. The Jays drafted Smoral with the pick they got from losing FF.
BlueJayWay - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 12:46 PM EST (#297249) #
Seeing on twitter that Brunt said on PTS that the Jays are ready to walk away from the Duquette drama.
BlueJayWay - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 12:47 PM EST (#297250) #
Well, not PTS exactly, the Calgary version of The Fan. Anyway, it's good this seems to be coming to an end.
SK in NJ - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 12:47 PM EST (#297251) #
Olerud and cash for Robert Person still ranks as the worst for me. Usually my go to answer is letting Alomar go for nothing (he should have been our Jeter) but at least Ash could say Robbie left on his own doing. There is no defending the Olerud trade.

Hopefully that remains the worst deal in franchise history, and Edward Rogers doesn't try to top it.
adrianveidt - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 12:52 PM EST (#297252) #
Agreed. If I were AA, I would definitely resign if Hoffman was traded for Duquette.
Easy for you to say. Do you often quit elite executive jobs because of "a slap in the face"?
Eephus - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 12:53 PM EST (#297253) #
More Awful Moves In Blue Jays History:

Trading Olerud for Robert Person (sure it cleared space for Delgado, but eeecch.)
Letting Delgado leave without even giving a respectable offer
Drafting Augie Schmidt and Jay Schroeder look pretty bad. Same with Miguel Negron
That whole Campusano thing in 1988 sounded dumb
That season where they wore the red "T" bird as their logo. Repulsive.

Best Moves!

Bautista! (obviously)
McGriff/Fernandez for Alomar/Carter (again obviously)
Rolen for Edwin (which took a while to work out)
Stealing McGriff from the Yankees
Moving Dave Stieb from the outfield to the mound
Getting Jose Cruz Jr. in his rookie year for a pair of middle relievers
Signing Paul Molitor
Changing to the jerseys they wear now. Even if they're bad, at least they're good to look at

Dave Till - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 01:07 PM EST (#297254) #

Seeing on twitter that Brunt said on PTS that the Jays are ready to walk away from the Duquette drama.

The Orioles - a key division rival - have been confused and disoriented by this whole process. Mission accomplished! Well done, Agent Ed!

SK in NJ - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 01:33 PM EST (#297255) #
Yes, it's easier said than done to resign, but if Rogers actually made that trade, how much longer would AA have as GM anyway? It's either resign because your boss doesn't care about you, or get fired when the new president starts putting his fingerprints on the organization. AA is screwed either way if Duquette comes in.

Brunt saying the Jays will back out. Hope he is right.
vw_fan17 - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 02:42 PM EST (#297256) #
Some Better Moves:
-drafting David Wells
-drafting Jimmy Key
-acquiring David Cone (both times!)

Both had lifetime WAR ~50. Doc Halladay is at 65, for reference.

Some Lesser Moves:
-trading/releasing/whatever David Wells (both times!)
-not resigning Jimmy Key
-David Cone for Marty Janzen+  - he gave the NYY ~22-24 WAR over the next 6 seasons.. How do you trade a guy with a 4.4 WAR in just over half a season (130 IP) for 3 unknowns??? He then went on to put up another 2.6 WAR in 99 more IP for NYY that year - 7.2 WAR!
bpoz - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 02:54 PM EST (#297257) #
Letting C. Carpenter go. Not good.

Getting T Henke. Good.
Four Seamer - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 03:22 PM EST (#297258) #
Apologies if this has already been posted, but I just saw this today.  More evidence that Daniel Norris is one interesting dude.
Four Seamer - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 03:27 PM EST (#297259) #
Well that didn't work out nearly as I had planned.  Try this instead:

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150121&content_id=106463954&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb
jerjapan - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 03:35 PM EST (#297260) #
Agreed Bpoz, letting Chris carpenter go was really short-sighted, I think St Louis paid him a million dollars during his rehab ... definitely worth a flier on that arm.  I wonder if McGowan got as much leeway as he did because we learned our lesson with Carpenter?  the way organizations value potential has changed pretty dramatically.  Can't imagine Hoffman is as well regarded as he is now fifteen years back, as an example.

Your reference to Henke lead me to his wikipedia, where i read this quote which makes me love the terminator even more:  "Henke started out throwing every night to his father, who caught his pitches while sitting on a five-gallon bucket"

Henke was a free agent compensation pick and as such, I'd say he's top ten Jays moves for sure, up with the Alomar trade, Bautista, McGriff, the George Bell rule 5 pick and the Vernon Wells deal.  Kelly Gruber was another rule V draftee that deserves mention.  His Wikipedia includes this nugget "The Toronto media quickly nicknamed him "Xanthos" (meaning blonde) after his long flowing blonde hair."  This is something i don't remember at all.  ah wikipedia. 

and just to repeat, no chance of Hoffman for Duquette.  the internet + no real news = BS

bpoz - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 04:03 PM EST (#297261) #
This is fun.

Bautista was a minor deal. As are many of the best ones.
Alomar was block buster.

What is Singer for ...That lefty. Darn I cannot remember his name. It did not happen. But still.
bpoz - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 04:10 PM EST (#297262) #
Ron Guidry.
Shaker - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 04:16 PM EST (#297263) #
Rios for Lincecum would've been nice.  SF GM Sabean floated that one to the public for a long time to get the reaction.  He listened and pulled the plug before it got done.

Alex's failure to scoop Eury Perez is disappointing.  A career .305 minors hitter with blazing speed and strong D in CF would be exceedingly useful as insurance in case Pompey is not ready.  Eury is now a Brave.  20-3 in SB with a .311 AVG in the IL last year at age 24.  Free for the taking.

Original Ryan - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 04:19 PM EST (#297264) #
I'm surprised that no one has mentioned Michael Young for Esteban Loaiza yet.

Other bad moves:
- Forfeiting a first round draft pick to sign Dennis Lamp when the team was hoping to draft Tom Glavine that year. The Braves picked Glavine in the second round just ahead of the Blue Jays' selection of Dane Johnson.
- Mike Aviles and Yan Gomes for Esmil Rogers looks awful right now.
Mike Green - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 04:25 PM EST (#297265) #
No one has mentioned the Michael Young trade before, OR, out of consideration for my appreciation of the goodness that is Friday late afternoon.  You are forgiven, but don't let it happen again!

Thanks, Four Seamer, for posting the Daniel Norris story.  Rock climbers and mountain bikers usually have very good lower body strength.  If Norris fits the typical profile, that will serve him well in the long run as a pitcher. 

jerjapan - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 04:38 PM EST (#297266) #
I'm surprised that no one has mentioned Michael Young for Esteban Loaiza yet.

This trade has been collectively blocked from our minds. 
vw_fan17 - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 05:04 PM EST (#297267) #
It is the trade that shall not be named!
dan gordon - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 05:10 PM EST (#297268) #
To my mind, the Bautista trade and the McGriff acquisition were the 2 best trades this team ever made. Gave up virtually nothing for an allstar player. Next would be the deal to get rid of that V. Wells contract, with Napoli + Rivera also coming to the Jays. That one gets my nod as the most unbelievable.

The big San Diego trade is interesting in many ways. At the time, the media played it as Alomar for Fernandez and McGriff for Carter, but that was nonsense. There were 2 very talented young players (Alomar and McGriff) who clearly had the most value, and 2 older guys who still could play, but didn't have the value of the other 2. If you look at the WAR each player produced for the rest his career after the trade, it breaks down as follows: Alomar 54.7, McGriff 33.1, Fernandez 16.7, and Carter 7.4. The players coming to the Jays produced 62.1, the players going to San Diego produced 49.8. Doesn't consider how long the players played for the respective trading partners, just how much value they each produced from that point on.
Mike Green - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 05:19 PM EST (#297269) #
What was spectacular about the Alomar/McGriff trade from the Blue Jay perspective was that they not only got the better player, but that they filled a position need in doing so.  They had John Olerud waiting in the wings, and Olerud was actually  a little better than McGriff at that stage in their careers.  Jeff Kent was not as ready to fill in at second base, as Olerud was to fill in at first base.  

The other thing, of course, was the timing.  It wasn't only that it was a win but that it was a win that pushed a good club over the top. 

dan gordon - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 05:22 PM EST (#297270) #
Another one like the V. Wells deal that hasn't been mentioned was the trade of Randy Myers to San Diego in 1998 for Brian Lloyd. Lloyd wasn't anything, but Myers had a huge contract, and was really struggling after being signed just a few months ago by the Jays to be their closer. Somehow the Jays managed to pawn him off on the Padres, in mid season, apparently because the Padres were trying to block some other team from getting him. Myers produced an ERA over 6 for the Padres the rest of the season, and didn't play again after the season was over. He still had 2 huge years on his contract, which the Padres were on the hook for, totaling about $13.5 million. He was one of the highest paid relievers in baseball. That was another head shaker, like the Wells deal - I couldn't believe they were able to dump that contract.
melondough - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 05:47 PM EST (#297271) #
If the Jays were stupid enough to trade Hoffman for Duquette I will change from Rogers to Bell. Of course Rogers would hardly care but I would just have to do something proactive for myself. Take a stand of some kind. I just could not in reality wash my hands of the Jays (like I did with the Leafs). It would take years of heart ache and frustration for me to do that.

In other news I just read that former Jay Ted Lilly faces three counts of insurance fraud after getting insurance after damaging his $200K RV and only then making the claim. He and his blisters face up to 5 years in prison. Doubt that will happen.
Dr B - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 08:42 PM EST (#297272) #
Randy Myers. I was trying to remember the name. He was a very good pitcher in the seasons before TO acquired him, but when he came here he seemed to have nothing left in the tank. He wasn't throwing as hard and seemed to be relying on his change-up way too much. I can't remember whether he was injured or not, but his K-rates were plummetting too. Unbelievable that someone picked him up with that contract and when he had that large fork sticking out of him.

And if my eyes don't deceive me, wasn't that good work by none other than favourite punching bag Gord Ash? (Ok, so he did sign the stiff in the first place, but hey, credit where credit is due).



John Northey - Friday, January 23 2015 @ 09:34 PM EST (#297273) #
As I recall Ash put Myers on waivers and San Diego grabbed him to keep him away from another club.  Ash surprised them by saying 'you want him? You got him' then got a minor player to complete an official trade so it didn't look as bad.

My favorite Jays trade has to be that McGriff one, the first one that is.  Jays got Dave Collins, Mike Morgan and McGriff for Tom Dodd and Dale Murray.  How lopsided was it?
Dodd: lifetime WAR: 0.1 in 8 games, 16 PA for Baltimore (FYI: he was traded earlier in '82 to the Jays from the Yankees as part of a deal for John Mayberry who had a -0.4 WAR as a Yankee)
Murray: lifetime WAR: 3.0, as a Yankee -0.7
Net WAR for the  Yankees out of this deal: -0.7 ... the Yankees released both of them after a bit.

Collins: 4.7 WAR as a Jay, part of the deal with Griffin for Bill Caudill
Morgan: 0.1 WAR as a Jay, 27.3 WAR for his post-Yankee career (yeah, Jays screwed up with him too, lost him in the Rule 5 draft)
McGriff: 19.3 WAR as a Jay, 52.4 WAR total, part of the BIG trade for Alomar & Carter.

The McGriff/Fernandez/Alomar/Carter trade was a big one...
McGriff: 9.4 WAR as a Padre, 33.1 WAR total post-Jays days
Fernandez: 3.1 WAR as a Padre, the only team other than Toronto he stayed with for more than 1 season, 16.8 WAR post-trade
Alomar: 22.2 WAR as a Jay, 54.6 total post-Padres
Carter: 8.3 WAR as a Jay, 7.4 total post-Padres (he really sucked at the end)... 9.8 WAR from 91 to 94, then negative every year after that

I remember before the trade hoping the Jays would find a way to pull Alomar out of San Diego but didn't think they'd be crazy enough to trade a kid who reached at 20  and an all-star at 22 but luckily I was wrong, they were crazy enough to do that.
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, January 24 2015 @ 07:39 AM EST (#297274) #
Going back aways, the signing of Doyle Alexander in June of 1983 after he was released by the Yankees turned out to be a good deal in two ways. While he didn't do much the rest of that season, he won 17 games each of the next two years. helping the Jays to the playoffs where he didn't perform well. Midway through the next year, 1986, he was traded to Atlanta for Duane Ward, which was another good trade. Atlanta, in turn traded him to Detroit where he went 9-0 to finish the season and helped them to the playoffs. Of course, Atlanta had to be happy with the trade as they got a minor leaguer named John Smoltz in return.
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, January 24 2015 @ 02:14 PM EST (#297275) #
Like everyone else, I have no idea what is happening in discussions about Dan Duquette. Virtually everything that's been written online or in the print media, whether it concerns the specific names of players who might go as compensation; whether this person or the other is doing a good job or a bad job in negotiating; and whose advise is being sought or not sought, strikes me as little more at this point than speculation.

It would seem by the absence of denials from Duquette that such discussions are taking place. The only comment I would make is that it is probably not as simple as some suggest for Toronto to just walk away from an executive who they have discussed bringing on board. Assuming they have had those discussions with Duquette, I would think that an organization cannot likely walk away from someone who has made the commitment to shift loyalties. It's not the same as a failed trade of players. At a certain point, it becomes untenable for both teams to maintain the status quo.
scottt - Saturday, January 24 2015 @ 03:08 PM EST (#297276) #
I would think that an organization cannot likely walk away from someone who has made the commitment to shift loyalties.

It's difficult for Baltimore to keep him. I don't think there's any pressure on Toronto to do anything. You think the Blue Jays need to maintain an appearance of ethical poaching to the detriment of the club?
Magpie - Saturday, January 24 2015 @ 05:46 PM EST (#297277) #
Come on, folks. Phil Huffman for Rance Mulliniks.

the signing of Doyle Alexander in June of 1983 after he was released by the Yankees turned out to be a good deal in two ways.

Three ways. The Yankees were still on the hook for Dour Doyle's contract. He was costing the Jays the MLB minimum.

Olerud was actually a little better than McGriff at that stage in their careers.

Well, he was five years younger and a far better fielder. But a better player than McGriff in 1991? Or 1992? I dunno. I'll give you 1993 (and McGriff wasn't bad himself that year.)
John Northey - Saturday, January 24 2015 @ 05:49 PM EST (#297278) #
The whole replace Beeston thing is a mess.  An ugly article is at the Toronto Sun -Inside story on Paul Beeston fiasco which makes Rogers Jr. look very, very bad indeed.  Some have wanted the Jays to be run by an owner who would jump in with both feet...sadly we might have that now.
scottt - Saturday, January 24 2015 @ 09:02 PM EST (#297279) #
I don't care much about Beeston.  I suppose Rogers cares about money, but the win/lost record under Beeston hasn't been very good.
bpoz - Sunday, January 25 2015 @ 09:35 AM EST (#297280) #
Exactly how big a role does the president play in constructing the team.

It seems to me the GM is given a budget with parameters, allowing him to spend a little more or a little less. He should get acceptable results from this amount. He may inherit bad contracts or give them out himself. Someone with more power than the GM can force the GM to do a contract that he is opposed to doing.

I do not believe that Beeston ruined the team. He was instrumental in bringing in Roger Clemens and may also have been a factor in Cito Gaston's second time as the manager. Both very positive moves IMO.
Mike Green - Sunday, January 25 2015 @ 11:35 AM EST (#297281) #
To return to eephus' question in a slightly different way, Shields can be expected (in my view) to be a league-average player over the next 3-4 years.  That's worth about $14 million a year at free-agent rates.  As January melts into February, arriving at a deal along these lines seems possible for some club.  Who knows, maybe there is not a strict payroll limit but rather Anthopoulos' thrift playing out (in a good context for it)?
cybercavalier - Sunday, January 25 2015 @ 11:51 AM EST (#297282) #
It seems to me that if there is a consistent theme with AA's decisions, it's a willingness to take risks and go against the perceived logical moves - this winter, consensus was that we needed to upgrade 2B, the bullpen, and to a lesser extent, 1b and the OF.

It seems to me otherwise that if there is a consistent theme with AA's decisions, it is a stacking of multiple players values to one single player value. Both 3B and catcher were acquired by stacking numerous players value from trading with Oakland, and money. The AAAA arms are really counted on to increase their values.
greenfrog - Sunday, January 25 2015 @ 12:17 PM EST (#297283) #
I think Shields is risky, given his age and innings logged. I have no idea how he will perform over the next four years. He could be a solid, above-average SP (perhaps starting out as a #2 and ending up as a #4), or he could get hurt and flame out. Or he could be a league-average starter, more or less.

If the Jays signed him, I would be nervous about the risk (especially given the inevitable backloading of his contract by the Jays) but excited about what he would potentially bring to the team (added quality and depth to the rotation, less strain on the bullpen), especially in 2015 and 2016, the key years for the Jays.

I think some team will give him at least 4/84, though. And I don't think Anthopoulos has the green light to spend that much. Also, it sounds as though Shields wants to pitch on the west coast, so bringing him to Toronto might require a significant premium.
Original Ryan - Sunday, January 25 2015 @ 01:19 PM EST (#297284) #
Exactly how big a role does the president play in constructing the team.

Under Rogers, the president has been the one who hires and fires the GM. After Rogers took over the team, Godfrey endorsed Ash and gave him a contract extension, but then fired him a year later and selected Ricciardi as Ash's replacement. Beeston was the one who fired Ricciardi and picked Anthopoulos.

The president has also had a big role on the financial side. Godfrey toed Bud Selig's line on things like draft pick signing bonuses and a salary cap. Beeston seemed to recognize that the Blue Jays were a big market team should act like it occasionally.

All in all, the president of the Blue Jays has a significant impact on the team's on-field performance, albeit indirectly.

melondough - Sunday, January 25 2015 @ 02:03 PM EST (#297285) #
Check out MLB trade rumors.com thank goodness the Blue Jays a broken off negotiations with Baltimore. Apparently they wanted Hoffman +2 other top prospects ridiculous.
dan gordon - Sunday, January 25 2015 @ 05:28 PM EST (#297286) #
I heard that as well. The scary part is they were "in negotiations", with the Orioles wanting 3 top prospects. If they were "in negotiations" it must mean the Jays were willing to give up at least 1 and probably 2 top prospects. If they weren't, there would be no negotiations, just a call and a "no way". I fear that eventually they will make a deal for Duquette, and "only" give up 2 top prospects, or "only" Hoffman.

On another note, I see the new mlb commissioner is talking about banning the use of defensive shifts, in order to get more offense in the game.
greenfrog - Sunday, January 25 2015 @ 06:11 PM EST (#297287) #
It doesn't sound as if the O's were ever serious about letting Duquette go.

Kind of hard to make a trade when you're thinking someone like Ybarra (maybe) and the other side is thinking Hoffman, Pentecost, and Nay.
Magpie - Sunday, January 25 2015 @ 06:56 PM EST (#297288) #
The Orioles have a helluva tampering case to make. This ain't over.
greenfrog - Sunday, January 25 2015 @ 07:37 PM EST (#297289) #
Bob Elliot: "Most tampering complaints are $100,000 to $500,000 fines ... teams do not lose players."

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/01/22/blue-jays-wont-for-gm-dan-duquette-but-rogers-might
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, January 25 2015 @ 07:41 PM EST (#297290) #
If they were "in negotiations" it must mean the Jays were willing to give up at least 1 and probably 2 top prospects.

Actually, it must mean nothing of the sort.
greenfrog - Sunday, January 25 2015 @ 07:43 PM EST (#297291) #
This is Roch Kubatko:

'[Former O's exec] Jim Duquette spoke to someone with Major League Baseball and reported that the teams weren't given a firm deadline to resolve this issue, though the commissioner's office clearly wants it done soon and continues to monitor the situation. He also was told that the likelihood of tampering charges holding up were "very, very slim to almost none."'

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2015/01/revisiting-duquette-topics-on-wall-to-wall-baseball.html

I can't get too worked up about the possibility of tampering charges.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, January 25 2015 @ 07:47 PM EST (#297292) #
The Orioles have a helluva tampering case to make.

Helluva bad one maybe. If Toronto contacted Angelos first, and if the two teams were discussing players and the Orioles made proposals, I doubt the O's will give any serious consideration to a tampering case, other perhaps, than to save face with their fans. Hard to claim that it's tampering if you're making proposals for the guy to leave and the other team isn't accepting your proposals. We'll see I guess.
Mike Green - Sunday, January 25 2015 @ 08:19 PM EST (#297293) #
Maybe somebody who knows about the MLB dispute resolution process can explain the procedure.  It sounds as though Baltimore and Toronto have been having "without prejudice" negotiations prior to the filing of a possible complaint; I have no idea whether this is sanctioned under the Rules or not. 
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, January 25 2015 @ 09:04 PM EST (#297294) #
It sounds as though Baltimore and Toronto have been having "without prejudice" negotiations prior to the filing of a possible complaint.

The Orioles might try to spin it that way, but to me at least it seems an uphill climb when the 'complaint' doesn't surface until the Orioles were apparently unsuccessful in extracting a high price for Duquette. Here's one of the few direct quotes from a participant in the talks, Angelos being quoted:

“Our position is what I’ve said. This is not something to negotiate. If they made an offer, we would look at it, but we are not intent on taking it. We are not engaging in any negotiation.”

A clear statement that they would entertain offers and no allegation of tampering. Moreover, I suspect that MLB has some knowledge of the discussions. It would not surprise me if Toronto proposed the same process as occurred for Epstein - mediation by MLB after an agreement that the move takes place, then a decision on compensation if the teams were unsuccessful in reaching agreement.
melondough - Sunday, January 25 2015 @ 09:16 PM EST (#297295) #
CBS Sports just came out with a piece on the Blue Jays. They are doing one for each of the 30 teams and tonight it is the Jays turn. Anyhow it's titled "Franchise bests/worsts" where David Brown puts in his two cents for each of the categories shown below. If anyone wants to reply with their best guesses (again this is respect to the Jays history only) before looking over the article feel free. Seems like it could be fun, well at least until some real news comes out...

-Jays best team(s)?

-Best team that did not win a WS?

-Worst flop?

-Worst team?

-Best player?

-Best manager?

-Best opening day?

-Best prohibition? ok I will give you this one (Ontario Government prohibits sale of beer at the park from 1977 to 1982)

-Best moment? (ok sorry but you are dumb if you don't this one)

-Best Tease? (hint: he likes pitching in Cle)

-Best Trade? Well this one is timely based on the past conversation on this thread. Well since we have chatted that one to death I will tell you his choice was Carter/Alomar

-Best Lopsided Trade? For the same reason as above I will give you his answer....Robinson Diaz for Jose Bautista

-Worst Trade? His choice here was the 2001 deal that sent David Wells and Matt Dewitt to Chicago for Mike Sirotka, Mike Williams, Kevin Beirne, and Brian Simmons

-Best view? Clue: think early Rogers centre years and no one way glass!

-Best sign stealer?

-Best Game? Hint Junior Felix. Guess the year without looking

It was a fun read.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24992942/franchise-bestsworsts-toronto-blue-jays

ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, January 25 2015 @ 09:30 PM EST (#297296) #
Best moment? (ok sorry but you are dumb if you don't this one)

For me, it has to be the afternoon when the game ended with George Bell catching a flyball in left, and dropping to his knees.
ISLAND BOY - Sunday, January 25 2015 @ 09:59 PM EST (#297297) #
Aside from the playoffs. my best regular season moment was John MacDonald hitting the home run on Father's Day just several days after his own father had died.
melondough - Sunday, January 25 2015 @ 10:11 PM EST (#297298) #
"Best moment? For me, it has to be the afternoon when the game ended with George Bell catching a flyball in left, and dropping to his knees."

I would like to retract my "you are dumb if you don't know this one" comment about the Jays best moment ever. It was said tongue in cheek but I don't want the sarcasm to be lost in how in looks on paper.

It was a great call on the George Bell '85 catch ComeByDeanChance. I thought the Carter moment was an obvious one for everyone but you know I have to say you reminded me of a moment I also prefer over the Carter catch. I guess it depends on where you were and who you were with. For me I was a young lad watching that game with my wonderful dad. I would give almost anything to have him back in this world. He was a not so big baseball fan that fell in love with the drive of '85.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, January 25 2015 @ 11:11 PM EST (#297299) #
I still think it most likely that Duquette ends up in Toronto, perhaps by next weekend. I can't see Baltimore going forward with him as their VP of Baseball Ops, and I can't see Toronto leaving him hanging in Baltimore. When the only issue in dispute is compensation, I think it ends up getting done once the posturing is over.
christaylor - Monday, January 26 2015 @ 06:21 AM EST (#297300) #
"-Best manager?"

...and the answer provided by the article's author to this question is just wrong.
John Northey - Monday, January 26 2015 @ 08:27 AM EST (#297301) #
That division clinching moment in 1985 would rank #1 with me too.  Up until that moment there was a fear the Yankees would somehow pull it off, after all they were the Yankees.  The home run by Alomar in 1992 ALCS off Eck was also up there as that showed the Jays could go all the way...the A's were viewed as the big nemesis for the Jays at the time and getting past them seemed a high mountain and that moment tore down that mountain.  A personal favorite is the home run by George Bell to close Exhibition Stadium - my whole family including my grandmother went to that game as it was the last one we would ever take her to (she was a heavy smoker and the dome wouldn't allow smoking...turned out she also had alzheimer's so that also made it a last big trip with her).

Lots of great moments in Jays history.  Obviously any objective study would pick Carter's home run, although for me 1992's bunt out by Nixon was bigger (clinching that WS title) while 1993 was icing on the cake.
85bluejay - Monday, January 26 2015 @ 08:30 AM EST (#297302) #
Until a definitive statement is issued by either side, I assume backroom negotiations are still going on & I still expect the Jays to get taken to the cleaners - I am ambivalent on replacing Beeston, the problem is Edward Rogers paying an exorbitant price and looking like inspector Clouseau while doing so.

The jays FO inability to do anything last July probably reflects ownership (Ed Rogers) saying no to taking on salary - If the jays had made the playoffs & especially if they had made a KC like run, the optics would have looked poor in replacing Beeston - This offseason, despite the early splash of Russell Martin (2015 salary offset by Adam Lind trade), the Jays haven't spent money and their 2015 payroll may be less than 2014 - I don't expect ownership to significantly increase the Budget until Edward Rogers get his guy installed (whomever that is) - tough spot for AA, and given that GMs becoming president (Epstein, Freidman) tend to want their own GM, AA maybe should be updating his resume.

The Jays were expected to spend big in this upcoming July 2 IFA - I hope this doesn't get sidetracked by this internal politics - Will AA & FO have their heart in it? - the fruits of those signings will almost certainly go to new guy.

I agree with Steve Simmons - It's time Guy Laurence (Rogers CEO) stepped in and put an end to this bumbling or maybe he's happy Edward Rogers is not meddling in Rogers main Business.
greenfrog - Monday, January 26 2015 @ 08:37 AM EST (#297303) #
I think part of the context to the payroll situation is the plunging Canadian dollar and uncertainty surrounding the Canadian economy. I'm not saying there isn't reason to criticize Rogers, but these developments arguably justify reining in the payroll for 2015.
John Northey - Monday, January 26 2015 @ 08:40 AM EST (#297304) #
It is funny how little respect Cito Gaston gets.  2 WS titles, 4 playoff appearances in his first 5 years (back when only 4 teams made it) yet no better than 2nd in Manager of the Year voting.  From 1994 to 1997 he had to deal with a terrible GM (let Alomar go because he thought prices would get lower for free agents, traded Olerud and cash for Person, the David Cone trade to the  Yankees, etc.).  Did a 3 year comeback and won 85 games in the last year of it but was viewed as 'over the hill' and not connecting to players even though it was under him Bautista became a star and Travis Snider showed the only ML hope ever for the Jays.  That 85 win season was also after Halladay was traded.  The team winning percentage under him in his first year back (after Gibbons was fired) was 580 which is better than any non-Gaston managed team has done outside of 1987 and 1985.
85bluejay - Monday, January 26 2015 @ 08:49 AM EST (#297305) #
I have to agree about Gaston especially the performance of that 2010 team coming after all the upheaval of 2009 & Gaston supposedly out of touch - I've wondered, given the disappointment of the prospects received in return, what if the Jays had just kept Halladay and taken the 2 picks when he left - that 2010 team with Halladay is interesting to contemplate.
greenfrog - Monday, January 26 2015 @ 09:24 AM EST (#297306) #
2010 was the last really interesting Jays team. The 2015 club could be similarly good. It depends on player health and how the young players (Pompey, Travis, Pillar, Sanchez, Norris, Stroman, Hutchison) progress. I still think the team isn't quite there, but I would love to be proved wrong.
SK in NJ - Monday, January 26 2015 @ 09:57 AM EST (#297307) #
Based on what I have read there is a lot of politics within Rogers, and Edward is apparently not a popular guy within the company. The fact that people employed by Rogers are expressing their dislike with the way Beeston has been treated and the process in general, it's possible negotiations really have stopped. Rogers values PR, and they are taking a PR beating right now.

It wouldn't surprise me if Beeston stays for one more year as his farewell and then look for his replacement afterwards. The optics of continuing the pursuit of DD right now look terrible.
John Northey - Monday, January 26 2015 @ 10:46 AM EST (#297308) #
If handled properly by others at Rogers I could even see Beeston sticking it out until DD's contract is up in 2018 if necessary.  Lots of moving parts and variables though so who knows? 
jerjapan - Monday, January 26 2015 @ 10:46 AM EST (#297309) #
I completely agree with the best game being the 10 run comeback in Boston.  I was so stoked about that game I listened on the radio despite barely getting the signal and contending with tons of static.  Alex Sanchez made his MLB debut starting that game as I recall, and he was the first prospect I was ever pumped about.  Dude got all of 11 big league innings for his career, so my start as a prospect prognosticator was off to a telling start. 

My grandfather was the source of my baseball love, but even he gave up and mowed the lawn around the middle of the game.  Being 14 in the summer meant that I had nothing better to do than keep listening and then the Jays started scoring runs in the 7.  Ernie Whitt's grand slam in the 9th put them up by one and I was hooked as a ball fan from that point on.  Even when Boston tied it in the bottom of the 9th, I somehow knew we would come back and win. 

I thought that a star HAD been born in that game, just not the prospect that I'd thought.  Turned out Junior Felix wasn't so junior, but he did net us Devon White a few years later. 



John Northey - Monday, January 26 2015 @ 11:25 AM EST (#297310) #
I wonder... 2010 with Halladay what would've happened...
To start the season the #5 guy (who would've been displaced by Halladay) was Dana Eveland.  The rotation to start was Marcum/Tallet/Romero/Morrow/Eveland.  It lasted 3 turns, then Tallet was out and Cecil was in.  That lasted 6 turns then Eveland was skipped and Tallet was back in.  That lasted 2 turns before Litsch was put in for Tallet.  That lasted 5 turns before Marcum was hurt and Rzep took over.  That gets us to the All-Star break.  Post break it was Romero/Morrow/Marcum/Cecil/Litsch/Rzep (6 man rotation) before becoming a bit of a juggle as guys like Mills, Rzep, Hill, Drabek, all got mixed in.  The last 6 games saw starts from Drabek, Cecil, Hill, Romero, Marcum, and Rzep.

So instead of Halladay we had Eveland (3), Cecil (6), Tallet (2), Litsch (5), Rzep and others.  Eveland was -0.7 WAR, Litsch -0.1, Tallet -1.4, Rzep 0.2, and Cecil 2.1.  Others were Hill 0.4, Drabek 0.1, Mills -0.1.  So that crew, outside of Cecil, was worth -1.6 WAR.  Odds are Cecil would've been in there, just maybe 6 starts later so lets merge all of them and get 0.5 WAR.  They all would've had a few starts here and there, some relief, etc. but lets just assume it is all a big merger.  Halladay that year was worth 8.3 WAR, so a spread of 7.8 WAR or 7-8 wins more for the Jays if they had Halladay.  The Jays had 85 wins, so if they kept Halladay they probably would've had 92-93 wins (nice total) which would've put them 2-3 games out of the playoffs still, behind the 95-67 Yankees.  Of course, if a couple of those added wins came vs the Yankees then... sigh.
John Northey - Monday, January 26 2015 @ 11:41 AM EST (#297311) #
That was an exciting game, that 10-0 comeback.  I was watching on TV and went out and bought a stack of Junior Felix cards that year (it was the high for baseball cards around then) figuring at 21 he was bound to be a star.  Of course, he was closer to 30 than 20 it turned out so that was about it for him.  Sigh.  What is odd is at '26' he hit 306/372/525 for Detroit in 86 games and that was it for his career.  He was in Montreal's system the following year and hit just 225/303/363 in AAA then was off to the Mexican League for 3 years, Korea for a couple, then back to Mexico but never got another shot at the majors.  His last year in Mexico he hit 305/429/461.  A big 'what if' or 'if only' player.  Was angry that the Jays traded him for Devon White at the time, but quite glad quite quickly after.
China fan - Monday, January 26 2015 @ 04:47 PM EST (#297312) #
".....I still expect the Jays to get taken to the cleaners...."

Is this a serious prediction, or just knee-jerk cynicism?  If it's a serious prediction, what is it based on?  The only facts we know are these:  the Jays are interested in hiring Duquette, the Orioles demanded too much, and the Jays walked away.  This is not exactly evidence that the Jays will be "taken to the cleaners."

Even if the Jays return to the bargaining table and eventually give some sort of compensation to the Orioles, it doesn't necessarily mean that the Jays were taken to the cleaners. They won't surrender Hoffman, or anything close to that.  But if they give up a middle-range prospect or two, or even a fringe MLB player, it doesn't necessarily imply that the Jays lost.   You can dismiss Duquette as "a suit" if you want, but the reality is that he's a smart executive with a winning record and a strong connection to Canada.  He has value.  Nothing wrong with paying something to acquire him, as long as it's not exorbitant.
dan gordon - Monday, January 26 2015 @ 05:04 PM EST (#297313) #
There have been a lot of very exciting moments over the Jays' history - the very first game in 1977, the game where they hit 10 HR's, Stieb finally getting his no-hitter, Delgado's 4 home run game, Carter's WS winning home run, Alomar's playoff home run against Eckersley, Bell's catch to clinch the division in 1985, but to me the biggest moment was getting Nixon out at 1st base to win the WS for the first time. The 2nd WS win was great, but nothing beats winning it for the 1st time.

Regarding Gaston, I know people have very different views of him. Those that like him cite the team's record, those that don't, usually talk about his actual in-game managing. I tend to think that the team had some great seasons under him because they had tremendous on-field talent. I always found Gaston extremely frustrating as a manager because he wouldn't use pinch hitters when the situation was screaming for one. He used to say he didn't like being pinch hit for as a player, so he didn't like to do it as a manager. I think this led to the Jays often being out managed by the other team under him. He also seemed to me to form opinions about players quickly, and then wouldn't change his mind no matter how well/poorly the player was playing. There quite often seemed to me to be better players on the bench than some of the players he was using, and I'm not going to take the time to get into that in detail. I think the fact that he was never hired to manage by another team reflects these shortcomings. I always felt the Jays won those 2 World Series despite Gaston, not because of Gaston, and I always have felt that team should have won more than it did.
Mike Green - Monday, January 26 2015 @ 06:04 PM EST (#297314) #
It's a bit of a tough criticism, Dan.  The Jays didn't win anything under Jimy Williams, and he had them at 12-24 to begin 1989.  Gaston arrived and immediately restored order.  The club ended up winning the division.  That isn't an easy thing to do. 

Gaston certainly had his faults, but it always bugged me that Williams got multiple shots before Gaston.  Interestingly, Adam Everett in a recent David Laurilia interview on fangraphs gave a lot of credit to Williams for help with positioning on defence.  That's a very strong endorsement, and perhaps an indication that while Williams was not suited to managing, he did have other strengths. 

dan gordon - Monday, January 26 2015 @ 07:22 PM EST (#297315) #
Mike, I'm not saying that Gaston was without any merits. He did have a good rapport with the players, and he also stayed away from bunting and other "small ball" stuff that on balance, hurts your offense. I certainly think Gaston was a better manager than Williams, and I imagine his arrival after Williams' firing was welcomed by the players. If you look at that team, they had a powerhouse, and the 12-24 start was totally out of line with the talent level on the team. They had 5 starters with ERA's under 4.00 - Stieb, Key, Cerutti, Flanagan and Stottlemyre, they had Wells, Ward and Henke in the bullpen, and a solid offense with Bell, McGriff, Moseby, Whitt, Mullinicks, Gruber and Fernandez. They didn't really get going until Aug 14th, when they started a run of 22-5. They were beaten pretty soundly by the A's in the playoffs, and I thought the use of the pitching staff was not optimal. Cerutti was hardly used, and I was surprised that Gaston went with Flanagan in game 4, and he didn't fare well.
Mike Green - Monday, January 26 2015 @ 07:54 PM EST (#297316) #
So, the Beast is back for 2015.  Cue Thin Lizzy. 
John Northey - Monday, January 26 2015 @ 10:18 PM EST (#297317) #
I find it funny how many feel that the Jays should've 'won more' than they did under Gaston.  As someone who lived through it let me tell you, if Gaston drove you nuts you should've endured Jimy Williams.  The guy who played Cecil Fielder at 3B and 2B (!!!!).  The guy who wouldn't let Fielder or McGriff play everyday in order to let Willie Upshaw keep playing and playing and playing well past his best-before date.  Williams did a few logical things - such as moving Damaso Garcia to #9 and Lloyd Moseby to #1 - but did them in a 'this is how it is' way which led to stuff like Garcia burning his uniform and the like.  He also leaned to a crazy degree on some pitchers (Mark Eichhorn getting over 150 IP in relief) while having little luck with kids (Gruber took a few years to become solid, McGriff only got a chance thanks to Gillick taking away Upshaw, hotshot pitchers generally fell apart under him).  Arguably Williams had a better club to work with than Gaston but he failed to make the playoffs and really wasted a lot of talent.

Gaston basically had 5 bad years (94-97, 2009) and 7 good ones (89-93, 2008, 2010).  One could shift 90 to the bad year pile if they really wanted to (no playoff) with the biggest issue being Bell in LF & Wilson in CF but the alternatives had issues too (Glenallen Hill had a 93 OPS+ and meh defense at best, Mark Whiten a 91 and was just 23, Ken Williams showed why he is a better GM than hitter with a 58, Rob Ducey did well with a 115 but had a 77 lifetime heading into the season).  John Olerud was the DH, McGriff at 1B so the only way to get those kids in was to either bench Bell or Olerud (which was done a lot in September). 
dan gordon - Monday, January 26 2015 @ 11:38 PM EST (#297318) #
Williams was pretty bad, although his 3 full seasons resulted in win totals of 86, 96, and 87. I agree Gaston was better, but that's not saying much. The Williams-led team was on the verge of winning the 1987 division championship, but then they ran into a lot of injuries late in the season, and they lost their last 7 games, to fall from 3.5 games in front with a week to go. That was very hard to watch. From 1985 through 1991, the Jays were one of the best teams in baseball, winning 99, 86, 96, 87, 89, 86, and 91 games, and I think they could have won more. They should have been able to get to the WS at least once or twice during that span. I've always felt that poor managing contributed to the failure to do so.
dan gordon - Monday, January 26 2015 @ 11:49 PM EST (#297319) #
On another note, I see that Rogers has issued a press release stating that they have given Beeston an extension to remain President and CEO until the end of the 2015 season, at which point he will retire.
bpoz - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 09:49 AM EST (#297320) #
I am glad this is over. Hopefully the team can now concentrate more on other stuff.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 10:22 AM EST (#297321) #
I think we have to consider other motivation to the Duquette saga. I don't think negotiations get this public this fast unless deliberately designed to do so. It makes me wonder why?

Beeston was without a contract until so very recently. He had basically said he would be staying on until told to go home. Now he's in control of everything, including his replacement.

Leaks always occur for a reason. Nothing this obvious is accidental.

A.A. has basically done nothing of significance since December 3rd. The disappointment and anger about that inactivity is almost palpable. Each Duquette et al leak has certainly defused some of the tension.
John Northey - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 10:37 AM EST (#297322) #
The 1987 team's final week was a disaster.  It wasn't just the injuries but very, very poor choices all year that doomed that team. 
  • Willie Upshaw - in '86 he had a 91 OPS+ at 1B over 661 PA, then in '87 he he did worse with an 87.  In '87 he started strong, hitting 266/330/464 through the end of June.  So I could see why Williams was playing him then.  But ... July saw a 608 OPS, August 537, and September a 751 (his OBP jumped that month).  In his career his OPS vs LHP was 74 points lower than vs RHP, and in '87 it was just 624 vs LHP yet he still played everyday.  This would be endurable if it wasn't for what else Williams had... namely Fred McGriff and Cecil Fielder.  They were being platooned at DH where McGriff was at 130 for OPS+, Fielder 133.  Really, by mid-season Upshaw should've been traded so McGriff and Fielder could play everyday (first half splits show a 996 OPS for Fielder, 825 for McGriff, 782 for Upshaw).  Too much loyalty to a player who was passed by two kids who would become stars.  This isn't just looking back, at the time it drove me nuts too as I felt Upshaw should be let go after '86
  • 2B - what a disaster...started with Mike Sharperson who had a 43 OPS+, Garth Iorg was given the job and had a 44 OPS+, Nelson Liriano given a shot late in the season and had a 72 OPS+, Manuel Lee given a tiny bit of time with a 67 OPS+, Kelly Gruber given some chances and a 77 OPS+ (really not good there though).  Heck, George Bell was given 2 innings there too.  
  • Final Game - this was so poorly done... Juan Beniquez hitting cleanup and DH with Fred McGriff on the bench (yeah, yeah, good LHP but geez), Garth Iorg at 3B over Kelly Gruber (Gruber the better hitter, fielder, runner, everything really), Fielder caught stealing (hit and run that was botched) followed by a triple by Manny Lee (ie: game would've been tied if less over managing) in the 4th inning.  Sigh.
  • Final week - weird stuff like Rick Leach DHing over Fred McGriff the 2nd last game, Tom Henke was benched that final week waiting for a save opportunity, Juan Beniquez getting playing time over Fielder & McGriff that final week, Gruber benched for Iorg regularly then, Cerutti barely used.  Just stupidity after stupidity that week - clearly Williams was panicking and decided to go with the oldest players he had hoping for magic or something.

Gaston was blasted for not doing enough juggling but Williams tended to be the opposite, he did the infamous Fielder/Gruber alternating 2B/3B non-stop twice for example.  1987 was the most painful ending to a year we'll ever see I suspect.  A good baseball movie about that week could be made I'm sure.  Following it up that winter with 'Bell now DH, Moseby in LF, kid who has never played in the majors in CF' was just icing on the cake.

finch - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 11:02 AM EST (#297323) #
I too am glad the Duquette drama is over...for now. I still think he ends up with the Blue Jays at some point.

With the Jays losing their 1st round pick this season, I wonder if they'll use that on Yoan Moncada, the high touted Cuba player. Draft prognosticators have his talent pegged as a Top 5 pick in this year's draft. It would be nice to see Rogers open up the purse. The Jays, although rumoured, have already agreed to terms with Vladdy Guerrero Jr for 3.2M. I'm hoping that do what the Yankees did last Summer and buy up the entire Latin market. Next season the amateur draft will become world wide (rumoured) so there wouldn't be any massive penalties to the Jays, like Yankees this year.
85bluejay - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 11:30 AM EST (#297324) #
Unless Moncada is not cleared before the next IFA signing period, I don't think the jays will even bid - I expect if Moncada impresses, he goes to the Yankees/Red Sox or hopefully the Dodgers.

I hope Beeston was able to wrangle some spending concession out of ownership for signing the deal & doing a pretend nice performance - his boy AA needs some financial flexibility or he will have to sell the farm to add talent and have the other team pick up the tab.
Mike Green - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 11:40 AM EST (#297325) #
The Jays, although rumoured, have already agreed to terms with Vladdy Guerrero Jr for 3.2M

I can't find any reference to this.  Can you help?
85bluejay - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 11:52 AM EST (#297326) #
I remember Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs had a tweet about it some time ago - so maybe cross reference his name with Vlad guerrero Jr.
Brent S - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 11:55 AM EST (#297327) #
Mike, here you go.
jerjapan - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 11:58 AM EST (#297328) #
Finch, remember we get a comp pick back for losing Melky, so it's not like we are totally out of the first round of the draft.  That said, I agree completely with your desire to see the Jays blow through the spending limit on IFAs.  AA has gamed the system before so i could see him trying this strategy, and with the rule changes coming, this is the season to try.

85bluejay, agreed that more money would be a tremendous boon for this team - I still believe signing James Shields would be a huge move for us, given our position on the win curve and the state of the division.  Even Soriano or  Rodriguez would be significant for us. 

However, using prospects as currency is a completely justifiable approach in my book.  No team out there - not even the Yanks - will spend infinitely, and every business has a spending limit.  Assuming that the prospects are appropriately valued, using them as a form of currency makes plenty of sense in a sport where the price of a win can be explored in an objective fashion.  This does not require 'selling the farm'.   In fact, Id argue that our minor league system, with it's glut of lower level, higher ceiling prospects, could really step forward this coming season, making our non-elite prospects even more expendable.  I'm all for more moves like the Donaldson deal - mid-tier prospects for elite talent.  Cost control is valuable for a team like Oakland, predictability and elite talent for a team like us - win-win. 

Mike Green - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 12:01 PM EST (#297329) #
Thanks, Brent.  It's a rumour, as opposed to a confirmed signing.  It is a link from January 6.  There have been subsequent stories indicating that other teams have continued interest.

We'll find out for sure in July. 

Magpie - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 02:25 PM EST (#297330) #
Gaston was blasted for not doing enough juggling but Williams tended to be the opposite

I always kind of suspected that Gaston's whole approach to managing was based on asking himself "What would Jimy do?" And then doing the opposite.

I exaggerate. But just a little.
Mike Green - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 04:15 PM EST (#297331) #
I always wondered what was going on when there would be a close-up of Gaston, and he'd be mouthing "WWJD"!
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 04:29 PM EST (#297332) #
Toronto did not sign Valdy Jr. They have an agreement to sign him on July 2nd, when it is legal to do so. The Jays are expected to blow the doors off the IFA budget in the July 2nd 2015 IFA year. Penalties for exceeding that Budget exist for two years, 2016 and 2017. The MLB/MLB Players Union Agreement ends following the 2016 Postseason. An international draft is expected to be enacted in any subsequent Agreement.

Any signing of Moncada is dependant on when he's eligible to sign. If prior to July 2nd, you won't find the Jays involved as it would prevent them from spending more than $300 K on anyone else for the next two years. If late enough that he's not eligible to sign until July 2nd, then Toronto would be involved.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 04:59 PM EST (#297333) #
The Donaldson trade was not mid-tier for elite, that's nonsense or the deal would not be made.

Brett Lawrie had changed his off-season workout routine to make it more baseball applicable. I expected him to stay healthier as a result. If I knew that about Lawrie, then so did Bean. Playing on grass should let him play 140-150 games. When 100% Brett is very good.

Franklin Barreto should be a star in 3-4 years, but was of no use to us now.

Kendall Graveman will start for Oakland this year and should be a mid-rotation Starter soon. Chances were 50-50 whether Sean Nolin starts this year in Oakland or in the Minors, but chances are good he make it later this year.

Until A.A.`s failure to acquire Bullpen help, and J.A. Happ trade, Graveman and Nolin were our #9 & #10 Starters. Now with Sanchez as Closer and Norris our #5 Starter, Graveman and Nolin would become possibly #6 & #7 Starters. Right now the #6, #7 and #8 Starters are Estrada, Albers and Francis. Trading Pitching is always a risk.
John Northey - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 05:27 PM EST (#297334) #
Lets hope MLB is annoyed with the Yankees over something (they normally get in the bad books) and decide to hold off on Moncada until the Yankees cannot sign him.  Doubt the Jays will go as nuts as needed to sign him, but at least then the Yankees wouldn't have him.
jerjapan - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 06:46 PM EST (#297335) #
The Donaldson trade was not mid-tier for elite, that's nonsense or the deal would not be made.

Thanks Richard, it'd been a while since you accused me of being nonsensical, I was starting to think I was slipping...

Took a quick look at John Sickels top 20 list for reference, one of the top prospect evaluators out there.  He gives 'elite' prospects an A ranking.  In his latest ranking, Daniel Norris is an A- / borderline A.  Sanchez an A-, while Pompey is a B, bordeline B+.  Pentecost, hoffman and Travis are the only other Bs in the system, although Castro is a B- borderline B..  Baretto will likely be a B / B- when Oakland's ranking comes out, with Graveman and Nolin probably in the C+ / B- range.  

I'd say they are the definition of mid-tier prospects.  Lawrie has a lifetime OPS of .748, although with improved health (a big if, given that staying healthy is a skill) and some room to grow offensively (he's just turned 25) he has a chance to be a star still. 
melondough - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 06:48 PM EST (#297336) #
Looks like Jays are still talking to Philly about Papelbon. It appears Pap still wants any team on his no trade list to guarantee the 2nd year at $13M.

http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasybaseball/update/25000465/report-blue-jays-also-interested-in-jonathan-papelbon-trade
http://zozone.mlblogs.com/2015/01/27/phillies-still-talking-to-brewers-jays-about-pap/

So what would you be willing to give up if the Phillies were willing to eat half of the $13M he is due for each of the next two years (purely speculative that this is the amount Philly would cover)?
92-93 - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 07:06 PM EST (#297337) #
Papelbon at half price? Any prospect other than Norris, Sanchez, Pompey, and Pentecost.
melondough - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 07:16 PM EST (#297338) #
So you would seriously give up Hoffman, Travis, or even Osuma for Papelbon? I wouldn't I would add those three to the protected list.

It's almost February and Amaro still has had no luck finding a suitor for Papelbon even when it's being reported they don't see a fit for Papelbon to stay given that they won't compete this year.

Last week there was this blog predicted Jays get Pap for Reid-Foley and Travis.
http://whosonfirst.sportsblog.com/posts/1676918/if_you_re_gonna_sell__then_sell.html

No chance I would do that. I think at this point they would take Reid-Foley straight up as long as Jays are willing to eat half of the remaining contract.
Magpie - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 07:53 PM EST (#297339) #
Kendall Graveman will start for Oakland this year and should be a mid-rotation Starter soon. Chances were 50-50 whether Sean Nolin starts this year in Oakland or in the Minors, but chances are good he make it later this year.

I dunno. Right now, they seem to be about #6 and 7 on the Oakland depth chart (behind Gray, Kazmir, Chavez, Pomeranz, and Hahn.) And the return at some point in the first half of this season of A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker isn't going to make their path any easier.
Mike Green - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 08:12 PM EST (#297340) #
Well, if Graveman is really Oakland's #6 starter (for now) and their likely #8 when Parker and Griffin return, he's worth more to the Blue Jays than to the A's.  I wonder what it would cost to get him back.  Perhaps the A's would be interested in a player with a higher ceiling who is farther from the majors..
melondough - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 09:13 PM EST (#297341) #
Has there been a thread anywhere where we discussed Blue Jays Prospect Jon Berti? I apologize if this topic has been discussed elsewhere but I don't recall seeing it.

Picked in the 18th round of the 2011 draft, I didn't realize how much the Jays brass like him. And so apparently does Reggie Jackson, now the special advisor to the Yankees, who was asking about him after seeing him play in a series against the Yankees AA affiliate last year.

This past season, this 5"10 175LB infielder (he's 25 but still a kid to me) was named his team's MVP for the second year in a row (Dunedin in 2013, AA New Hampshire in 2014). Last year he either led the league or was close to the top in hits, triples, and SB, while having a 75 percent SB success rate last year. He is said to be polished at 3 positions: 2B, 3B, and OF.

He's got me excited since it says here he could find himself in AAA to begin the year. Looks like he has major wheels, swiping 96 bags over the past two years. Also apparently a tough out and hard worker who sites John McDonald, David Eckstein, and Dustin Pedroia as his role models.

Some quotes from Greg Mercer's piece:

LaCava said "he has long been a bright star within this organization". Right out of the gate he showed he was a real prospect. He earned that. Within our group he's always been regarded highly. He may not grab you at first. But the more you watch him, the more you like him."

"He deserves to be in the conversation" Said Tony LaCava. "I think if the opportunity arises to play at AAA, he can and he will at some point....He's getting awful close to being big-league ready."

His speed is a real weapon. But he's also a grinder, a tough out and guy who comes to play every day. Managers and coaches all want him on their team. He makes offences better," LaCava said.

"Other managers will tell me, 'That Berti, he's killing us.' He's aware that a ground ball isn't always an out," Meacham said (now Jays Double-A manager but who also managed Berti in Class A Dunedin in 2013). "There's always a worry that he's going to score. He alters the game."

"He definitely gets underestimated," said Meacham. "He's one of the few guys whose talent is actually getting better. He's getting faster. His arm strength is stronger. His footwork is getting better. We haven't seen yet how good he can be."

Oh and Aaron Sanchez says he's "probably the best base stealer I have ever had as a teammate."

I will have my eye on him come Spring Training. I am really pulling for this guy.

Here is the link: http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-prospect-berti-opening-eyes-with-speed/
greenfrog - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 09:16 PM EST (#297342) #
Some miscellaneous notes / thoughts:

- Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs continues to see Toronto as the best fit for Shields - and yes, he's aware of the budget limitations Anthopoulos faces

- Sullivan also fielded a question comparing Graveman to a young Doug Fister, another SP who did not rate very highly as a prospect. Which led me to review Graveman's minor-league stats. They're quite impressive

- Papelbon's velocity has really dropped over the last few years. He might or might not still be good in 2015 and 2016

- Rosenthal has an interesting summary of the Duquette saga on Just a Bit Outside. Basically, he faults both the Jays and the O's for how they've handled the situation

- Beeston is still claiming that the Jays can go to ownership for more cash if the right deal can be had, and that Anthopoulos still has more work to do to improve the team. Make of it what you will
Gerry - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 09:45 PM EST (#297343) #
I think the Papelbon news is a smoke screen. I see these possibilities:

The Phillies are trying to turn up the heat on the Brewers by leaking that the Jays are interested

The Jays are trying to pressure some free agent closer by showing they have options.

I tend to believe the first one more than the second.

Papelbon is insisting that his 20166 option be picked up if he is traded, I can't see the Jays doing that.
pooks137 - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 10:38 PM EST (#297344) #
.... while having a 75 percent SB success rate last year...He's getting awful close to being big-league ready."

Not to be a Debbie Downer....

What's the sabermetric SB break-even percentage? 70%? 75%? 80%?

A 75% SB% doesn't seem that impressive even with the high steal totals.

And I sure hope he's almost big league ready. This will be his age-25 season and he hasn't seen AAA. Not really a prospect.

His career SLG% is .348. Yuck. Although it was .373 in AA last year with career highs in 2B and HR, so maybe he's developed a little more pop. A SLG% of .348 isn't going to play in the big leagues.

His OBP have been pretty pedestrian the last 3 year above A ball.

I'm just not seeing much to like here unless you love grittiness. He seems like Muni with less bat control and more speed

vw_fan17 - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 10:43 PM EST (#297345) #
Seems like Travis Snider will get a chance to make the Jays relish or rue the day they traded him on a regular basis - he's now playing for the Orioles.
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, January 27 2015 @ 10:45 PM EST (#297346) #

What's the sabermetric SB break-even percentage? 70%? 75%? 80%?

I think it's around 65-67%. Rickey Henderson, lifetime, was only 80.8%.

Michael - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 02:48 AM EST (#297347) #
Yeah, historically it is somewhere between 3/5 and 2/3 (60% and 66.666667%). Of course, with proper choices at sometimes the BE is 80 or 90% and other times it is 20 or 30% as it depends on baseout, state of game, hitters that are up, pitchers that are pitching, etc.
ayjackson - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 08:21 AM EST (#297348) #
I love the guys that show up to play every day. I mean there's nothing worse than a guy who shows up, but has left his cleats and glove at home and isn't dressed for ball.

[this is why i haven't posted in months...i have little to contribute]
pooks137 - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 09:26 AM EST (#297349) #

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-changing-caught-stealing-calculus-2/

I was referring in my other post to Berti, as I forgot to mention it

Yeah, I guess I was a little off. Apparently, according to this article, value-neutral for SB% was 69.7% in 2000 across MLB and now down to 66.6% in 2012 with the steroid ear over.

I guess I'm mistaken, 75% is probably above-average in the current run environment

MatO - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 11:09 AM EST (#297350) #
Jon Berti? He was completely mediocre at AA in 2014. I guess he's an OK base stealer but that's it. Teams were so impressed with him that nobody chose him in the Rule 5 draft. He was great in the Australian Baseball League a season ago though.
bpoz - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 11:16 AM EST (#297351) #
I too have wondered why J Berti is not more highly regarded.
D Travis is very highly regarded. I assume because of his extremely good BA. And thanks to Gerry's opinion on the "hit for average" tool trumping all others, Travis earns the superior ranking.

Berti & Andy Burns are 2 AA infielders that I think have a chance. They bring something into the conversation.

If Bautista & Marco Scutoro can be and were under valued, then I give Berti and Burns a chance. I hope their results in 2015, if good enough get them an opportunity.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 11:20 AM EST (#297352) #
If you get a chance, very soon, go to the TSN MLB page. Keith Law speaks on various subjects.

1) Jeff Hoffman is a very good prospect, but not elite, a MLB Starter. Even if he's only ever just a 5th Starter type worth minimum Dollars, he's still too valuable to trade for any executive.

2) The Jays biggest need is for a good Starter, an upgrade, someone for the front of the Rotation, who can also throw the innings. Shields would be a good acquisition if they can find the money.

3) Devon Travis is not a prospect, he's not a MLB 2B.
#2JBrumfield - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 11:27 AM EST (#297353) #
Casey Janssen is now a Washington National. Sad to see him go. All the best, #44!
Paul D - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 11:27 AM EST (#297354) #
Janssen to the Nats, one year, $5 million, with a mutual option for the second year
CeeBee - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 11:35 AM EST (#297355) #
For such a smart guy like Keith Law you would think he'd have MLB teams knocking down his door, or maybe he just isn't that smart.
Parker - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 11:36 AM EST (#297356) #
Best of luck to Casey, unless he's trying to close out Game 7 of the World Series against the Jays, obviously.

I don't see any real possibility for Papelbon to the Jays - if the talk about his insistence on having his option picked up in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause to Toronto, and if Toronto requires the Phils to pick up half the remaining contract, that remaining amount doubles if they trade him, so they'd be on the hook for the same amount of money as if they didn't trade him, but without the value he provides for 2015. Unless the Jays agree to pick up the whole option year, I don't see any gain for the Phillies in trading him.
bpoz - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 12:04 PM EST (#297357) #
The Nationals look incredibly strong.

They are deep at all positions, even catcher. They have a very strong offense and it seems to be balanced. Their rotation has 3 Aces, Scherzer, Strasburg and J Zimmermann. For the record I do not know what an Ace is.
Gio Gonzalez and D Fister are probably ranked as #2s, and T Roark is probably also a #2.

Their pen on paper looks very good. M Thornton should be a good enough lefty in the pen.

I have difficulty evaluating defense.

I really like their chances of getting into the post season.
ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 12:05 PM EST (#297358) #
Shields reminds me of an older version of Erik Hanson. I watched the slow leak from that balloon and need not see it again. Papelbon reminds me of a right-handed Randy Myers. Truly painful. No thanks on both.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 12:50 PM EST (#297359) #
Man having Casey Janssen back at 5 million would be a hell of a deal for us... Man we must have pissed him off when we took his job.
dan gordon - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 01:02 PM EST (#297360) #
Disappointed the Jays couldn't hang on to Janssen. He'll have a very good season for Washington, and gives them an alternative to close if Storen pitches like he did in 2013. The Nationals look like a very good team, and if they trade one of their 6 starters for an upgrade, they'll get even better.
bpoz - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 01:23 PM EST (#297361) #
As I pointed out. All 6 starters are good. Chances are that injuries will provide enough playing time for everyone.

But if they keep all 6 and there are period of good health, there has to be some bad feelings.
The unlucky guy would see SPs on other teams getting a regular turn and many would not be as good as he is.

Well, it is late Jan so we have to talk about something.
PeterG - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 01:51 PM EST (#297362) #
I don't know whether Keith Law is or is not an idiot but he certainly sounds like one. He worked with AA under JP and I am thinking there is some dislike or jealousy that clouds his opinions.

On another note, Nats were said to be in on Belisario and Badenhop along with Jays. Assuming Nats have satisfied their need...........
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 02:24 PM EST (#297363) #
Without A.A. doing anything for the Bullpen as is expected, although he'll use his standard excuses, this team won't make the Postseason. Best guess: Cecil: Closer; Loup: Set-up; Steve Delabar: power arm, Late Innings; Estrada, Jenkins and Redmond Mid-Late-Long with Drabek or Romero filling in. That is a disaster waiting to happen.

Of course, if A.A. gets a top Reliever and a quality Starter then this team should be in the Postseason. Next guess: new acquisition: Closer; Sanchez and Cecil: Set-up; Loup: Mid-Late; Estrada: Mid-Late-Long; with just two openings to fill.

Even if it's just Papelbon and Shields, that should be good enough. That would be $33.0 MM more in Salary, which is sad because best calculations show this team at around $130.0 MM. All arby cases at max, with all other increases, buyouts, etc. included don`t push it any higher than that. Even going to $163.0 MM this year, next year's salary won't pass $145.0 MM.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 02:59 PM EST (#297364) #
Keith Law has the Jays Farm System ranked 19th.
jerjapan - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 03:32 PM EST (#297365) #
19th is much too low, IMO.

Still plenty of time to address the pen, and plenty of (relative) quality names remaining - Rodriquez and Soriano as high leverage guys, Chamberlain, Badenhop, axford and old friend Dustin McGowan for middle innings, Alexi Ogando or Carlos Villanueva as swing guys. 

Other positions are pretty barren.  Assuming we don't pay up for Shields, we are looking at risky arms like Johan Santanna or Chris Young for the 5th starter spot- which would be fine by me, pushing Sanchez or Estrada back to relief.  Very little OF depth remaining, although Dayan Viciedo just got DFAed.   In the middle IF, Everth Cabrera remains intriguing if you are willing to overlook his legal issues, and Cuban vet Hector Olivera would certainly be a huge upgrade at 2B. 

Most of these guys should be available with the money we supposedly have left.  Without a few more moves, I'm skeptical this team is a legit contender as is - lots of talent but too many holes.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 04:18 PM EST (#297366) #
A.A. and his Team should get off their butts, ask for possibly another $25.0 MM, in case of acquiring someone special, then go out and sign someone(s). A.A. has enough staff they could be going after four - six players. Tell everyone you are taking the first two or three to say yes and the rest can go fishing.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 06:05 PM EST (#297367) #
Of course, with the Keith Law Conversion Factor, 19th is probably something like 11th or 12th
ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 06:24 PM EST (#297368) #
Anthopolous was on the radio with Bob McCown talking about possibilities.

Some of his comments.

They are going to give Sanchez a chance to start. He said he saw him pitch before the call up, and after the adjustment, and he said at that point he may have been better than Stroman.

Miguel Castro is getting a ST invite and a chance to make the team.

Estrada will be given a chance to start. Norris will also be given that chance.

Smoak will have to make the team and may not.

Second base. Izturis is healthy and going into a free agent year. Travis will be given a chance to win the job. Mixed opinion on whether he can win the job.

They will not trade Navarro unless it helps the club.
dan gordon - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 06:39 PM EST (#297369) #
Some other AA comments from that interview: The club has about $6 million left on the budget. They're not spending $10+ million on a reliever, and he all but said they're not interested in Papelbon. Valencia likely platoon with Smoak, IF Smoak makes the team. Thinks Cecil can close. Asked about Shields, he said they're not spending $20 million annually on a player. Thinks Martin can catch Dickey, and that Martin is really up for that challenge.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 06:41 PM EST (#297370) #
I can see Jeff Hoffman as #1 prospect by year's end, if not much sooner with Sanchez, Pompey, Travis and Norris graduated to the MLB level. I expect Osuna, Pentecost and Castro to be fighting for #2-#4. Beyond that, everything is up for grabs.

Of the 24-26 year-old prospects in AAA, their performance determines their value in trades and up here. Graveman joined Pompey and Norris in "rocketing" up through the System so he gained huge value. Just have to see who's next.
greenfrog - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 09:22 PM EST (#297371) #
he said they're not spending $20 million annually on a player

They're already spending $42m combined on Reyes and Buehrle in 2015.

I'm not saying Shields is worth whatever his asking price is, but why wouldn't the team go the extra mile with *someone* good in what is clearly a "win now" year? Why add Donaldson/Martin/Saunders (in the wake of Reyes, Buehrle and Dickey), only to rely on Izturis as a serious candidate to start at second base? And why not add one more solid starting pitcher, given the attrition among SPs in a typical year?

I guess we'll know the answer by October. I really hope that the Jays don't miss the playoffs this year for lack of depth.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 10:02 PM EST (#297372) #
You don't need to wait until October.

I'm not saying Shields is worth whatever his asking price is, but why wouldn't the team go the extra mile with *someone* good in what is clearly a "win now" year?

- because they're already spending 42 million on Reyes and Buerhle.


Why add Donaldson/Martin/Saunders (in the wake of Reyes, Buehrle and Dickey), only to rely on Izturis as a serious candidate to start at second base?
- Rome wasn't built in a day and there's a limit to the amount of good players at 2B. If Donaldson/Martin/Saunders weren't acquired then there would be more room for improvements.
- with the rest of the offseason they're comfortable with less offence at 2B.

And why not add one more solid starting pitcher, given the attrition among SPs in a typical year?
- see above and also, it could be a negotiating ploy
greenfrog - Wednesday, January 28 2015 @ 10:27 PM EST (#297373) #
My difficulty with the "we've got such a great lineup that we can carry a weak bat at the bottom of the lineup" is that it never really works out that way. Players get injured. Some underperform. Rookies fail to live up to (sometimes unrealistic) expectations. As a result, instead of that juggernaut of an offense with one weak link, the team often ends up with multiple weak links, especially when it has a weak bench and/or a lack of quality depth in the organization. The Jays have been down this road before, both with respect to the lineup and with respect to the starting rotation.

In my view, it's better to be proactive and assemble a good, deep roster before the season begins. That way, you don't have to worry about the whole thing collapsing like a house of cards when a key cog or two gets injured or otherwise doesn't work out. The Jays have a potentially good team, but also a high-risk one.

dan gordon - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 12:17 AM EST (#297374) #
My impression from the interview was that AA really likes Travis at 2B, saying he can handle the position defensively, has hit at every level, and has some speed. I think he's expecting Travis to be the guy, at least shortly into the season, if not right from the word go. The comment about not paying $20 million was of course for any further additions, not existing players like Reyes.
greenfrog - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 12:38 AM EST (#297375) #
I guess the question is how to get those few extra wins to really make you playoff-competitive. Right now the projection systems seem to have the Jays at around 83-84 wins. If your plan as a GM is to stack your team with pricey players like Reyes and Buehrle and somewhat-pricey or about-to-get-pricey veterans like Bautista/Dickey/EE/Martin/Donaldson/Navarro in an aggressive attempt to make the playoffs (aggressive because these moves necessitated trading good prospects, backloading contracts, acquiring arb-eligible players, etc.) wouldn't it make sense to spend a bit more and go hard after one or more quality ML players (a McCarthy/Miley/Clippard/Miller/Zobrist, etc.) to complete your roster and improve the odds of achieving your goal? There were (are?) plenty of moves available this off-season that wouldn't have required the Jays to spend $20m on any one player.
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 12:38 AM EST (#297376) #
I find it interesting when teams show a lot of faith in younger players. AA's comments on Castro as me more bullish on the kid.
dan gordon - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 12:49 AM EST (#297377) #
Yah, he clearly loves Castro, spoke very highly of him. On Rotoworld the 3 most recent posts are saying the Jays have been in contact with Badenhop, K-Rod and Rafael Soriano, FWIW.
greenfrog - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 12:55 AM EST (#297378) #
Sometimes those public comments about prospects may be aimed at generating trade interest. For example, I remember Anthopoulos really hyping Nestor Molina on a Sportsnet telecast before trading him to the White Sox for Santos the following off-season.
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 07:19 AM EST (#297379) #
On Rotoworld the 3 most recent posts are saying the Jays have been in contact with Badenhop, K-Rod and Rafael Soriano, FWIW.

Yikes! K-Rod in the RC with a one-run lead would be a scary proposition. Those of us of elevated age may not make it to the all star break. Last year he allowed 14 home runs in 68 innings in the NL.
85bluejay - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 08:23 AM EST (#297380) #
AA usually goes overboard in praising prospects (as do most GMs)- read his over the top comments on acquiring Brett Wallace, Gose, Drabek etc. - I'm sure Travis has a chance of being a competent 2B but most evaluations I've read are skeptical of his bat in the show. That the Jays are willing to give Castro a shot before he pitches above A ball tells me that they are not confident in the development of his secondary pitches and see him more as a BP arm (which is what many prospect evaluators have predicted), perhaps a future closer & while that's nice, it's a bit of a disappointment for me as I was hoping we had a future rotation guy.
scottt - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 08:23 AM EST (#297381) #
They will not trade Navarro unless it helps the club.

Dropping Navarro would give the club another 5 millions to spend elsewhere. Doesn't that help the club more than a disgruntled bench player?


John Northey - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 08:37 AM EST (#297382) #
Soriano would be nice.  I suspect AA is looking for bargains and Soriano could be one now.  He made $11 mil each of the past 3 years, his save total those years is 42-43-32 and his 3.08 FIP last year was his lowest since 2010.  His K/9 was 8.6 BB/9 2.8 HR/9 0.6.  If he can be signed cheaply then why not? 

K-Rod HR/9 the past 4 years... 0.5-1.0-1.4-1.9 ... gulp!  His BB/9 and K/9 are solid (2.4-9.7) but those dingers.

Badenhop is the opposite, just 0.1 HR/9 last year.  But just 5.1 K/9 too which suggests he is on a fine line.  The fact he has played for 4 teams in 4 years isn't a good sign either.  If cheap, sure why not, but I wouldn't go over $3 mil.
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 10:02 AM EST (#297383) #
That the Jays are willing to give Castro a shot before he pitches above A ball tells me that they are not confident in the development of his secondary pitches and see him more as a BP arm

There was certainly nothing in the interview suggestive of lowered expectations for Castro. It was put in terms of having the best 25 on the roster. I didn't read anything more into the interview than that they were high enough on him that he had a chance to make the team. Gibbons normally wants a long pen and he could be one of their 13 best pitchers. He wouldn't be the first pitcher to come from A ball to the majors nor the first to start out in the bullpen.
PeterG - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 10:28 AM EST (#297384) #
Castro will not be traded imo. He has the tools to be an impact pitcher at the major leagues level.
Parker - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 11:36 AM EST (#297385) #
Sometimes those public comments about prospects may be aimed at generating trade interest. For example, I remember Anthopoulos really hyping Nestor Molina on a Sportsnet telecast before trading him to the White Sox for Santos the following off-season.

While I agree that this is likely the case, it does bear mentioning that Molina had just come off a tremendous year and was worthy of praise even if Anthopoulos wasn't planning to trade him.
bpoz - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 12:02 PM EST (#297386) #
I take it that "win now year" means 2015 and maybe 2016. Currently the team is pretty good. Capable of winning in the high 80s, possibly in the low 90s. However there are quite a few teams that look stronger than them. But they definitely have a shot IMO.

Buehrle & Dickey most likely leave when their contracts are up. EE & Bautista may also leave when their contracts are up. All this by the end of 2016. So to say win now makes sense.

IMO, if you win 88-92 games you are most likely in a post season race. Which is good for attendance & interest in the team. The following year also brings promise, because of current success.

The pitching sure got younger with Stroman, Hutchison, Sanchez & Norris. Those 4 may even be good. I hope so because that could translate into a good 88-92 win team, with other parts of course past 2016. Martin & Donaldson are good and should be here past 2016.
Past 2016 some rebuilding has already been done.I do not know what the team does with J Reyes for the duration of his contract. By the start of 2017, our older players if still around are probably not as good. Good replacements have to come from somewhere. Hopefully we can afford them, develop them or trade for them.
M Saunders will only be 30 at the start of 2017. So he is young and proven to some degree. So if things break right we could have an 88-92 win team for a long time.

If this team cannot win 88-92 games this year then it is not much better than the 2013 & 2014 teams.
dan gordon - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 01:37 PM EST (#297387) #
The Jays are said to be making a big push for R.Belisario, according to Rotoworld. Sounds like a bad idea, and I hope it's not true, as most Blue Jay rumours aren't. Belisario has put up WHIP's in the 1.45 area the last 2 years. The Jays' "cast of thousands" who will be auditioning this spring can do that.
SK in NJ - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 01:38 PM EST (#297388) #
@jonmorosi: #BlueJays "very close" to signing Ronald Belisario, source says.
eudaimon - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 01:43 PM EST (#297389) #
We're "very close" to signing Ronald Belisario, as per Jon Morosi (via Rotoworld).

He had a poor ERA last year, but his FIP and FIPx were decent (mid 3s) and comparable to his previous two years, where he posted 2.54 and 3.97. Depending on the price it seems like a good deal on a solid middle reliever. He's a groundball pitcher, which should play well at Skydome.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2203&position=P

BlueJayWay - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 01:43 PM EST (#297390) #
Not real impressed with Belisario either..kinda has a Francisco Cordero feel to it.
BlueJayWay - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 02:02 PM EST (#297391) #
Wilner reporting on twitter it'll be a minor league deal, so that's not so bad.
Brent S - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 02:02 PM EST (#297392) #
I have a feeling that it may be a minor league deal. If so, seems like a great pickup.
melondough - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 02:28 PM EST (#297393) #
According to Rosenthal, it looks like Beachy "has decided not to sign a contract at this time". With his arm getting stronger with each passing day he will wait to closer to spring training.
China fan - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 02:47 PM EST (#297394) #
It's a minor-league deal for Belisario, and he gets $1.7-million if he makes the team.  Seems like a good acquisition.  If he makes the team, he's worth the money.  If he's beaten out by one of the many waiver acquisitions on the roster, the Jays owe him nothing.
melondough - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 03:04 PM EST (#297395) #
I really like the Belisario signing. Ultra low risk.

What do you think about the Ramon Santiago signing? It's a minor league signing with an invite to spring training. Grading is said to be above average at SS and league average at 3B and 2B. Seems like a depth move for Buffalo as well as depth for Toronto when Reyes injures himself.
melondough - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 03:06 PM EST (#297396) #
Apparently Santiago gets $1.1M if he makes the team. Described by Shi as a "lefty crushing utility infielder". Seems like a waste of $1.1M to me.
PeterG - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 03:20 PM EST (#297397) #
Both are good signings. Belisario has to make team for contract to kick in. I see no downside here. Santiago is inexpensive insurance if Izturis not 100% and team would have great utility if we carried both.
Dave Till - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 04:04 PM EST (#297398) #
Belisario's ERA by month last year:

Apr: 6.32
May: 3.77
Jun: 7.36
Jul: 3.77
Aug: 10.80
Sep: 2.84

The Jays now just need somebody to pitch during those bad three months.
Chuck - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 04:34 PM EST (#297399) #
Described by Shi as a "lefty crushing utility infielder".

Odd characterization for a guy whose career L/R OPS splits are 645/643. (Santiago did crush lefties in 2014, but in just 55 plate appearances.)

Chuck - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 04:40 PM EST (#297400) #
AA is doing his requisite Bulk Barn shopping to round out the roster. Dig your hand into the infielder barrel: Ramon Santiago. Dig it into the relief pitcher barrel: Ronald Belisario. I imagine his hand is still in that barrel, fishing around for a few more baubles with a little sheen if you look at them in just the right light.

Are we done with brand name acquisitions? Any surprises up his sleeve? The current roster feels a little... short.

greenfrog - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 05:33 PM EST (#297401) #
Digging your hand into bulk food bins is gross. I hope he's at least using a scoop.
John Northey - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 05:36 PM EST (#297402) #
It does seem like it is bargain shopping time doesn't it?  Of course, not much else is left.
  • Shields is the only guy given a QO left on the table.
  • Others left via MLB Trade Rumors...
    • Relief RP: Mike Adams, Matt Albers, Burke Badenhop, Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano, Jared Burton, Joba Chamberlain, Kyle Farnsworth, Matt Guerrier, Matt Lindstrom, Dustin McGowan, Chris Perez, J.J. Putz, Jose Veras, Jamey WrightCarlos Villanueva, Kevin Slowey, Alexi Ogando, Scott Baker,
    • Relief LP: Joe Beimel, Sean Burnett, Phil Coke, Neal Cotts, David Huff, Joe Thatcher, Joe Saunders, Franklin Morales, Paul Maholm, Bruce Chen
    • SP: Brandon Beachy, Chad Billingsley, Kevin Correia, Roberto Hernandez, Kyle Kendrick, Felipe Paulino, Randy Wolf, Chris Young
    • 1B: Lyle Overbay
    • 2B: Mark Ellis, Rafael Furcal, Rickie Weeks, Donnie Murphy
    • 3B: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jayson Nix, Ian Stewart
    • SS: Everth Cabrera
    • CA: John Baker, John Buck, Gerald Laird, Jeff Mathis, Ryan Doumit
    • LF: Tyler Colvin, Cole Gillespie, Scott Hairston, Reed Johnson, Jason Kubel, Ryan Ludwick, Eric Young, Raul Ibanez, Nolan Reimold
    • CF: Tony Gwynn
    • RF: Nate Schierholtz
    • DH: Jason Giambi

More RH relievers than anything else. Seems the market isn't big for them. A few names that a few years ago would've been big, but now don't get their calls answered.  Anyone the Jays should chase?

mathesond - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 05:47 PM EST (#297403) #
Mr. Northey, I say the Jays rectify what happened with Chris Carpenter last decade by signing Beachy. Initially, it's a step up alphabetically!
PeterG - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 05:55 PM EST (#297404) #
As far as the bargain bin is concerned, I would be interested in Adams, Axford and McGowan. Would also put in a claim on OF Jose Constanza, DFA'd by Braves.....for some extra OF insurance.
dan gordon - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 06:57 PM EST (#297405) #
Santiago's career splits are about as even as you can get: vs RHP .243/.316/.327/.643 and vs LHP .242/.306/.339/.645, so whoever called him a lefty crusher isn't paying attention. He hasn't hit much at all the last 3 years, with a line of .224/.306/.292/.599. At the age of 35, there's not much gas left in his tank. I suppose he's OK as depth, but I doubt he's going to be worth $1.1 million, so I'd prefer he stay in Buffalo in case of injury.

Sure it's good that Belisario's deal is contingent on him making the team, but the thing is, what if he has a good spring, you put him on the team, and he produces a WHIP of about 1.45 like he did each of the last 2 years? Spring training results quite often do not reflect the regular season. Hey, if he can produce better results, fine, but even looking at his minor league numbers, I don't see it, his K/BB ratio wasn't even 2, only about 1.7 for minor league career.
scottt - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 07:52 PM EST (#297406) #
I think Belisario could do okay if you keep him away from the left bats, which basically spells middle relief.
Mike Green - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 08:15 PM EST (#297407) #
Santiago is a good signing, in my opinion.  The club needed an answer to the question: "what happens if Reyes gets hurt?".  The answer appears to be a Goins/Santiago platoon.  That ought to be better than replacement level.  Which is about all you can really ask.  Anthopoulos has done a really nice job this off-season. 
John Northey - Thursday, January 29 2015 @ 09:56 PM EST (#297408) #
There are a few guys I'm surprised haven't got a contract yet, but I'm guessing their agents (or themselves) misread the market.  Guys like Joba Chamberlain and Rafael Soriano who both would be solid guys to have but are sitting out there wondering who they will play for in 2015.  I suspect AA has a few verbal offers out to guys like that, saying if you are desperate here is my offer (something in the $2-5 mil range depending).  He probably has one of those out to Shields as well, but wasn't taken seriously at first but might be as spring approaches and players get anxious. 

Funny though how some guys did a lot worse than I noticed last year.  Giambi for example really should've been out of MLB since 2012 as his OPS+ figures for 2012 to 2014 were 75-83-51 ... for a guy who really is a DH only.  Of course, for all 3 years combined he made under $3 mil so it isn't like it was a big risk for any of those teams but what a waste of a roster slot. 

Btw, checked BR and Jeff Mathis is signed for 2015 by Miami for $1.5 mil.  Hard to believe a guy with a 52 OPS+ lifetime keeps getting contracts.  Funny thing is his best offensive year was here with a 72 OPS+, next best is a 64.
scottt - Friday, January 30 2015 @ 08:52 AM EST (#297409) #
I wonder if those minor league contracts count against AA's remaining money--6 million is it?

Or is it AA's way to go over the limit?

92-93 - Friday, January 30 2015 @ 10:19 AM EST (#297410) #
If AA has to factor in 2016 option buyouts in his 2015 budget, I'm guessing the minor league deals are a heavy component as well.
SK in NJ - Friday, January 30 2015 @ 10:29 AM EST (#297411) #
Why hasn't Navarro been traded yet? The difference between him and Thole in overall value is practically nothing. Saving $5m to reallocate to more depth signings is critical.
SK in NJ - Friday, January 30 2015 @ 11:38 AM EST (#297412) #
The Belisario deal has fallen through, according to Wilner. He is a free agent again.
Mike Green - Friday, January 30 2015 @ 11:42 AM EST (#297413) #
I don't agree that the difference between Navarro and Thole is negligible.  Navarro is a very useful 2nd catcher because of his bat.  The club is thin at catcher anyway, and having Thole around in case of injury is a pretty good idea. 

If the club can trade Navarro to a partner that wants him as an everyday catcher and is prepared to deliver a return consonant with that, then he ought to be traded both for his sake and the team's.  Otherwise, it's a good idea to hold on to him. 

SK in NJ - Friday, January 30 2015 @ 12:44 PM EST (#297414) #
They are both replacement level catchers, and whatever advantage Navarro has offensively is negated by his bad defense and pitch framing. Keep the one that makes $1.75m and trade the one that makes $5m. It won't make much difference to team success, but that extra money could be used for more bullpen help.
Intricated - Friday, January 30 2015 @ 01:05 PM EST (#297415) #
Btw, checked BR and Jeff Mathis is signed for 2015 by Miami for $1.5 mil.  Hard to believe a guy with a 52 OPS+ lifetime keeps getting contracts.  Funny thing is his best offensive year was here with a 72 OPS+, next best is a 64.

That's due to Miami picking up the option on the 2+1 year contract at $1.5M per which AA gave Mathis (preceded by a 1-year contract at the same rate), and then traded him a few months later as the "final piece" of the blockbuster.  Still peanuts for a glove-only veteran, keeps the seat warm until Realmuto is ready.
Chuck - Friday, January 30 2015 @ 02:35 PM EST (#297416) #
Why hasn't Navarro been traded yet?

I wonder if Navarro isn't serving as Smoak insurance. If Smoak can't fit the bill at 1B (presumably with Encarnacion slated for DH), then maybe Navarro eats up some DH at-bats with Encarnacion playing 1B.

Dr B - Friday, January 30 2015 @ 02:57 PM EST (#297417) #
The difference between him and Thole in overall value is practically nothing.

Fangraphs had Josh Thole at 0.0 WAR last year and Navarro at 2.0. The steamer projection for 2015 has Thole at 0.1 and Navarro at 0.7. You can go back further if you like, but Navarro has typically been slightly better and also projects to be slightly better.

Sal - Friday, January 30 2015 @ 04:00 PM EST (#297418) #
Fangraphs WAR does not account for pitch framing.

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

cruzin - Friday, January 30 2015 @ 05:17 PM EST (#297419) #
Interesting that Law ranks the Jays 19th, yet practically has 3 in the upper half of his top 100.

MLB.COM comes out with their top 10 in each position and seems fair enough.

Norris at #3 for LHP
Pompey at #7 for OF
Travis at #6 for 2B
Pentecost at #10 for C

And for crying over spilled milk, Syndergaard at #2 for RHP.

Curious to see which ones of the above make the MLB.COM top 100 and where. I believe Sanchez and perhaps Hoffman will make it.

Dr B - Friday, January 30 2015 @ 05:26 PM EST (#297420) #
Fangraphs WAR does not account for pitch framing.

Ok, that's fair. I thought WAR had a defensive metric. That link is evidence that Josh Thole is better defensively. Is there some metric here that shows the overall value somehow?
Sal - Friday, January 30 2015 @ 06:25 PM EST (#297421) #
WAR does have a defensive metric. For catchers though, it is a relatively recent and is based on things like CS, PB,  and blocking.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/catcher-pitch-blocking-war-update/

Navarro was barely acceptable based these metrics. He was terrible though in the unaccounted-for pitch framing.


Mike Green - Friday, January 30 2015 @ 06:46 PM EST (#297422) #
One year pitch-framing statistics are probably not that helpful.  There are catchers who are great year after year- Russell Martin, Jonathan Lucroy, Jose Molina and ones who are bad- Willin Rosario and Wellington Castillo.  Most catchers including Navarro bounce around quite a bit.  Generally, you are probably better off to look at 3 year statistics.  Navarro is below-average but not terrible.  There is really no metric for Thole because he is catching a knuckleballer. 
scottt - Friday, January 30 2015 @ 07:47 PM EST (#297423) #
That's the problem with Navarro. He's a backup catcher that can't catch one of the starter.  It's a really bad idea to force Martin to catch Dickey every time, even afternoon games.  And if Martin needs to miss a couple of games, you have to do some really silly shuffling like sending one of the bullpen guys or the 4th outfielder down for several days to bring up a real backup catcher.

It's not really Navarro vs Thole. It's more like Thole vs Martin for Dickey and Navarro vs Martin for the other starters.

SK in NJ - Saturday, January 31 2015 @ 12:05 AM EST (#297424) #
As mentioned, framing is unaccounted for in WAR. Navarro actually costs the team runs on framing, so his WAR is misleading. Factoring everything, he's replacement level (give or take). It's hard to quantify framing for Thole since he's catching a knuckleballer for the most part, but ultimately, the difference between the two from a value standpoint is likely not meaningful enough to hold on to Navarro at $5m.

If they traded Navarro a month ago, maybe they could have signed Ogando for more than the Red Sox just gave him, plus had a bit of money left over. That $5m adds up.
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, January 31 2015 @ 09:18 AM EST (#297425) #
Over the last 3 years, Navarro has posted an OPS+ of 106. In the same period, the comparable number for Josh Thole is 60. That seems like a sizeable difference.

Last year, Navarro seemed to be a frequent offensive contributor. Whether one puts any weight at all in 'clutch' performance, and I'm not prepared to say it's entirely illusion, to my eye last year Navarro came through frequently whereas Thole was at the other end of the range.

I think the obvious reason that Navarro hasn't been dealt is that they are not going to simply give him away regardless of the return, particularly in order to be able to spend the money on interchangeable bullpen flyers like Alexi Ogando. They seem to have made it clear that they are going to cough up 10+ million for the Soriano's of the world whether Navarro's salary is on the books or not , and i note the freespending Nats have not resigned Soriano either. I don't expect Soriano to lightly move from his last year's salary range to a significantly smaller amount.

Navarro can not only catch, he can DH as well against both right and left-handed pitching. It's a small and perhaps insignificant sample, but his DH numbers are markedly better than his offensive numbers when he catches. Smoak is a low risk possibility to make the team and play first or come off the bench, but if he doesn't hit Navarro is a bat and Thole isn't. I don't think we have to microscope pitch framing to see a considerable difference. I like Navarro. I'm a fan first, and the guy has come through for the team. I'm not as anxious as others to simply toss him on the woodpile, particularly to gain the alleged benefit of Josh Thole and Alexi Ogando.
cybercavalier - Saturday, January 31 2015 @ 10:32 AM EST (#297426) #
Regarding trading Navarro, ideas off my head:

1) to Atlanta for A.J. Pierzynski who shall at least catch Mark Buerhle, and LC/CFJose Constanza who hold the CF warm for Pompey's development.

2) to D-backs ..... already tried and denied

3) to Red Sox for Ryan Hanigan and others ..... not to dealing with teams in same division

4a) and Thole to White Sox for Geovany Soto and George Kottaras. Soto shall rebuild his value in Toronto or Buffalo. Kottaras, besides his Torontonian status, could or could not catch Dickey's knucklball while rebuild his value in Toronto or Buffalo ?

4b) for Soto and cash/money consideration


Richard S.S. - Saturday, January 31 2015 @ 11:56 AM EST (#297427) #
Having the best possible Rotation in Baseball only matters when they consistently pitch 9.0 innings. When they can't becomes significant if the Bullpen doesn't hold the lead/keep it close; that's what matters. Having a less than the best possible Rotation in Baseball matters significantly because they rarely pitch 9.0 innings. Having a very good Bullpen matters greatly, because they are always trying to hold the lead/keep it close.

Having a great Defense matters by keeping scoring close. It is a great assurance to the Pitchers and a confident Pitching Staff will pitch better. With anything less than a great Defense, it could cause problems for the Pitchers as they try to be better than they are. Pitching under stress causes injury as Pitchers try to be more than they should be.

Pitching and Defense matters. Offense is just what players do when Pitchers aren't pitching. Even a poor Offense scores runs. The number of runs scored only matters when Pitching and Defense fail to do their job. How bad the failure was is indicative on how good the Offense must be, and how often.

Defense is about as good as it can get with the resources available, when the needs of the Offense are considered. There will always be limitations in what can be done, but that's the ceiling, you can't do more as it's not possible. The only problem is failing to at least achieve close to those limitations.

What happened with Ronald Belisario, why did the contract fall through? Who screwed up? Too much secrecy is counterproductive. I need to know.
PeterG - Saturday, January 31 2015 @ 12:40 PM EST (#297428) #
Guessing that with Belisario, agent agreed to contract verbally, but player rejected it and would not sign because of the out clause.
scottt - Saturday, January 31 2015 @ 01:23 PM EST (#297429) #
i note the freespending Nats have not resigned Soriano either.

They might have exceeded their budget. Do they actually need Soriano?

Anybody left at this point is a player who wanted more than any team was willing to pay. I put Navarro in the same boat. He would have been long gone if any team thought he was worth 5 million. Navarro will be this year's Esmil Rogers.
vw_fan17 - Saturday, January 31 2015 @ 01:45 PM EST (#297430) #
Having the best possible Rotation in Baseball only matters when they consistently pitch 9.0 innings. When they can't becomes significant if the Bullpen doesn't hold the lead/keep it close; that's what matters. Having a less than the best possible Rotation in Baseball matters significantly because they rarely pitch 9.0 innings. Having a very good Bullpen matters greatly, because they are always trying to hold the lead/keep it close.

The "best possible Rotation" in baseball is expected to pitch at least 6 innings, maybe more on average. Let's say 6 2/3 innings. That means, on average, the bullpen only pitches 2 1/3 innings, or approx 1/3 the amount of the starting rotation. So tell me, which is more important: the 2/3 innings pitched by the starters, or 1/3 pitched by the relievers? The relievers might come into a blowout (win or lose), in which case performance really doesn't matter that day. The starter, on the other hand, unless he's the visiting team and his team scores 7+ runs in the top of the 1st, is always in a close game at the start. It's not like only the last 2-3 innings matter - run prevention (good pitching/defense) matters for all 9 innings.. Plus, the less a bullpen pitches (due to good starters!), usually the more effective it is. Bullpens have issues (like we did last year) when they are being overworked.. And don't forget - the starter might go the whole game, in which case, your bullpen was worth 0 to you that day. Your starter? He will ALWAYS have a hand in the outcome of the game.

Which would you rather have: 5 King Felixes (insert other ace of choice) and the Jays' 2015 bullpen, or 5 J.A. Happ's and last year's KC bullpen? I know which one I'd rather have.. the former.
PeterG - Saturday, January 31 2015 @ 02:49 PM EST (#297431) #
Don't agree. The word is that Jays don't want to trade Navarro at this time.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, January 31 2015 @ 05:27 PM EST (#297432) #
The best possible Rotation has pitchers with steady no-hit stuff, and that won't happen.

The Blue Jays will trade Dioner Navarro when the return is good for the team. A.A. said so. Google Primetime Sports Podcasts and listen to A.A. speak himself. You can access almost any Podcast that way.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, January 31 2015 @ 05:29 PM EST (#297433) #
http://andrewstoeten.com/2015/01/30/jays-sign-tiago-shogun-da-silva/

You have to go there to believe it.
vw_fan17 - Saturday, January 31 2015 @ 06:01 PM EST (#297434) #
Well, they had to do something, I guess. Belisario just signed with the Rays (not Jays) according to MLBTR..
christaylor - Saturday, January 31 2015 @ 06:38 PM EST (#297435) #
"The best possible Rotation has pitchers with steady no-hit stuff, and that won't happen."

Of course that won't happen. I'm not sure what you mean by "steady no-hit stuff". Has a rotation of that quality has ever been put together ever? Do you believe any team will ever make that happen? The quality start is an obviously flawed stat but let's lower the bar to that measure. Has there has there ever been a staff where the majority of the staff has put together a majority of quality starts? Perhaps a better question is what do you believe the best rotation put together by any team in the last 20 years? In all likelihood no team will stack up to that, heck the Nationals could field the best rotation this year, but there's a substantial chance their rotation could underperform the Jays and a better than even chance they'll be worse than the 2008 Jays.
bpoz - Saturday, January 31 2015 @ 06:41 PM EST (#297436) #
Wow. It is almost February. Moves are still happening.

Intl signings, J Shields still unsigned and some teams have too big a surplus at some non pitching positions.
bpoz - Saturday, January 31 2015 @ 06:50 PM EST (#297437) #
Good rotations? Any thoughts on the 1992 Jays final rotation? That long ago NY Mets rotation with T Seaver & Nolan Ryan and others. This was over 20 years ago. So was the Henke & Ward led pen and the Nasty boys pen of the Cinci Reds.

After all our farm's strength is pitching, so I see that as the key to our getting to the next level.
Parker - Saturday, January 31 2015 @ 06:59 PM EST (#297438) #
For the best rotation of the last 20 years, can anyone beat the 1998 Braves?
Richard S.S. - Saturday, January 31 2015 @ 07:01 PM EST (#297439) #
I'm discussing the Bullpen's importance because Starting Pitching will never be good enough to do without them, even with the ability to throw continuous no-hitters. A Bullpen's importance that basically being ignored by A.A. since November 2nd. What A.A. is doing now is dumpsters-diving, searching the dregs at the bottom.

Now if you want to discuss what makes a Great Rotation, don't. It hasn't happened yet and might never happen. You might have a very good Rotation if it doesn't matter who you Ace is, because everyone else is just as good. But that hasn't happened yet and might never happen.
greenfrog - Saturday, January 31 2015 @ 07:23 PM EST (#297440) #
The Rays have signed Belisario to a minor-league contract.
christaylor - Sunday, February 01 2015 @ 04:33 AM EST (#297441) #
Does anyone who knows anything believe a bullpen is unimportant? Why set up such a strawman? No one can know whether AA has been ignoring the bullpen or not, only he is privy to his thoughts. There are many examples of dumpster diving being an effective strategy (remember the Creature Billy Beanie found to use one famous example?) for putting together a pen and many examples of money being misspent (there were many who disliked the BJ Ryan contract at the time of the signing).

Cecil (see the recent famgraphs article on him) and Sanchez is a fine back end of the pen. Any number of arms from nowhere could surprise fans. Would we like a Ward a Henke in the pen,yes, but pens aren't used the same way they were. Three one and done relievers a loogy and a long guy isn't hard and isn't a good use of team resources.

As for telling people to not talk about things, that seems to be against the spirit of the site as a Pena - remember that old sign up document. So I am politely asking again pick your best rotation of the last 20 years and then we can look at their pen. That could be a helpful taking off point for discussion, do you not agree?
christaylor - Sunday, February 01 2015 @ 04:55 AM EST (#297442) #
No doubt on that one for the last 20 years. I have some fondness for recent Philies, Giants, and As rotations but we're unlikely to see a rotation as great as the 1998 Braves again. All time the 1971 Orioles and 1989 Mets were great and the 1993 Braves... like the 98 them, just awesome.

If we go back more than 20 to 25 years, I don't think we can put either the the 1992 or 1993 Jays near the top of the list and in 1993 the Jays needed Cone. If anything those staffs argue for how important a fireman (Ward) can be - Dayn Perry in his book Winners has a nice analysis of just how crucial Ward was to the Jays success.The trouble is relievers just are not used that way anymore. The incentives have vanished but it'd be nice to see a team try.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, February 01 2015 @ 08:04 AM EST (#297443) #
Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux and Roy "Doc" Halladay (who I consider better than anyone not mentioned above) form a very good Rotation and pitched in the last 10 years. Is this a great Rotation? NO! They should have been much better. Will you have trouble deciding who your ace is? YES! That's what it's supposed to be like. A $100.0 MM Rotation worth every cent they are paid.

The best Blue Jay Rotation starts Roy Halladay, Dave Stieb, Pat Hentgen and a group of not good enough to mention Pitchers for the remaining two spots. Unfortunately, the Jays were never "Starter-conscious" in their existence and still don't look to be any year soon.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, February 01 2015 @ 08:47 AM EST (#297444) #
People want to know what happened to the Cy Young Award winning Starter A.A. acquired, also known as R.A. Dickey.

1) Less than a good Defense, rather porous, extended innings unnecessarily. I believe he wins two more games with better Defense. This year the Defense is much, much better.
2) Being unable to hold the lead, the Bullpen caused Dickey's ERA to spike and probably cost R.A. at least 3 or 4 Wins. Unfortunately the Bullpen will not be a strength this year and will still have trouble holding the lead.
3) Indifferent Offense made pitching harder, no room for a mistake. Just fewer strikeouts and putting more balls in play would lengthen innings and generate far more offense. That could mean as many as 5 wins were lost. The present Offense may or may not be good enough to matter. There will be fewer strikeouts and a better OBP so that should lengthen innings.

The problem wasn't that R.A. Dickey stopped being a Cy Young-caliber Pitcher, this was never a Cy Young-caliber assisting team. Has that changed at all, maybe.
Parker - Sunday, February 01 2015 @ 11:04 AM EST (#297445) #
The bullpen was awesome in 2013 and Dickey wasn't any better then. Dickey's biggest problem seems to be that he's somewhat homer-prone, and Skydome inflates those numbers. Look at his home-road splits. As well, he's now pitching against must stronger opposition. In his Cy Young year, he outperformed his FIP by almost a full run, so he was somewhat lucky that year as well. Since moving to the AL East, his FIP has ballooned by just over half a run, which is pretty standard for a pitcher moving from the NL to the AL.

What's funny though is that his K/BB ratio has been better at home than away since coming to Toronto. Seems like he goes after hitters more at home, and on the road he nibbles more, or his control is a little worse but when he misses his spots batters aren't clobbering him as hard. Kinda weird numbers - anyone have a theory about this? Maybe he's not as afraid to put guys on base on the road because he's not so paranoid about the three-run homer.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, February 01 2015 @ 11:37 AM EST (#297446) #
Now as good as the 2013 Bullpen was, every time the Bullpen relieved Dickey in the middle of an inning they let in runs. I got to watch 21 Dickey games that year and the Bullpen did not help him.
Original Ryan - Sunday, February 01 2015 @ 01:05 PM EST (#297447) #
Now as good as the 2013 Bullpen was, every time the Bullpen relieved Dickey in the middle of an inning they let in runs. I got to watch 21 Dickey games that year and the Bullpen did not help him.

By my count, Dickey was relieved mid-inning eleven times in 2013. The bullpen allowed just one of the thirteen runners it inherited to score. I'd say that the bullpen was pretty good to Dickey that year.

You can check the game logs yourself.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, February 01 2015 @ 03:26 PM EST (#297448) #
It's possible 2013 and 2014 has run together in viewing memory. However, with use of 2013 gamelogs for R.A. Dickey's starts I have found the following:

1) Seven 1-run games that were the Offense's fault - they were not good enough.
2) Three games where the Defense was not good enough - maybe the Offense would be good enough.
3) And the bullpen let in an Allowed Run.

R.A. Dickey was 14-13 3.71 ERA in 2013, not what we expected. However 24 wins and a 4.16 ERA were possible for first time in the A.L. East, if the team was good enough. So somewhere in the middle is fair.
christaylor - Sunday, February 01 2015 @ 05:00 PM EST (#297449) #
"Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux and Roy "Doc" Halladay (who I consider better than anyone not mentioned above) form a very good Rotation and pitched in the last 10 years. Is this a great Rotation? NO!"

Those pitchers were never in the same rotation -- we were discussing actual rotations. Uh, Yes, 3 HOFers, a guy who ought to be in the HOF and a marginal guy (Halladay) is a great rotation. Writing nonsense emphatically is still non-sense. I love Halladay as much as the next Jays fan but what evidence are you basing your assertion that he's better than Pedro, Clemens, Johnson, and Maddux on? That he wore a Blue Jay uniform the longest?

"The best Blue Jay Rotation starts Roy Halladay, Dave Stieb, Pat Hentgen..."

That was never, in reality, a Blue Jays rotation. Can we stick to actual baseball and not consider fantasy or simulation league rotations? If the Jays aren't currently starter conscious, where would you rank their rotation in the AL next year? Without looking it up, what was their starter FIP ranking last year?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you give Gillick, Ash, JP, and AA too little credit, all of them, minds with more baseball acumen than you or me, all know the importance of starters enough to be consider conscious of it.

In baseball, you have to run out 5 starters, and unfortunately, even on the best teams, that guy ain't great. If he's average, you've probably got a great team on your hands.
Parker - Sunday, February 01 2015 @ 06:18 PM EST (#297450) #
It's possible 2013 and 2014 has run together in viewing memory.

Maybe for you. Why do you continue to insist on focusing on pitching wins, anyway? You've been educated at least a dozen times on here as to the usefulness of that stat (none) in evaluating individual performances.

If the offense doesn't score any runs, the pitcher doesn't win the game even if he pitches a complete game shutout. The best pitcher in MLB history would not win a single game if his offense was bad enough.

It's difficult to have a logical discussion when your don't even acknowledge when someone refutes one of your subjective and baseless claims. I thought we were talking about Dickey's bullpen support, but your reply doesn't even address this; instead you go back to pitching wins and the offense not scoring enough runs.
jerjapan - Sunday, February 01 2015 @ 06:40 PM EST (#297451) #
Best Jays rotation ever?  85 with Steib, Key and Alexander healthy and in fine form for a combined 104 starts?  Clancy was solid as the #4 although bad Luis Leal was the number 5 guy.

the 92 / 93 rotations are actually worse than I remember, now that I've looked them up.  still good, just not as good as an 18 year old Jer thought.

The 92 braves rotation has always stood out for me given how that WS win was the high point of my life (and still is - just don't tell my GF).  Smoltz, Glavine, Avery ...  Charlie Liebrandt was their 4th starter and an ERA of 3.36 in 31 starts, and the 5th and 6th guys were even better.  93, 96, 98 - the Braves starting pitching dominated the decade.  Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Avery, Neagle, Millwood, Liebrandt, Mercker - unbelievable.  that 95 rotation had only 3 starts outside of the top 5 guys (although that season was only 144 games, but still ...)



greenfrog - Sunday, February 01 2015 @ 10:01 PM EST (#297452) #
I'm curious to see how the Nationals' rotation does in 2015. Their six starting pitchers are pretty much a GM's dream five-plus-one:

Strasburg
Scherzer
Zimmerman
Gonzalez
Fister
Roark
Richard S.S. - Sunday, February 01 2015 @ 11:44 PM EST (#297453) #
In April-ish, through 6 games, R.A. Dickey was the Pitcher of Record of a 2-3 record with a ND and 5.09 ERA over 35.1 IP. The Bullpen was 1-0 and a 3.44 ERA over 15.2 IP. The bullpen cost R.A. Dickey and the Team nothing. However, they permitted an Allowed Run to score.

In May, in 6 games, R.A. Dickey was the Pitcher of Record of a 3-1 record with 2 ND and a 3.55 ERA over 38.0 IP. The Bullpen was 0-2 and a 8.78 ERA over 13.1 IP. The Bullpen cost R.A. Dickey and the team two wins with very bad performances. They permitted five Allowed Runs to score.

In June, in 5 games, R.A. Dickey was the Pitcher of Record of a 1-3 record with a ND and a 4.11 ERA over 30.2 IP. The Bullpen was 1-0 and a 1.59 ERA over 11.1 IP. The Bullpen cost R.A. Dickey one win being unable to hold the lead. No Allowed Runs scored.

In July, in 6 games, R.A. Dickey was the Pitcher of Record of a 3-3 record and a 3.07 ERA over 41.0 IP. The Bullpen was 0-0 and a 0.90 ERA over 10.0 IP. The Bullpen cost R.A. Dickey and the team nothing. No Allowed Runs scored.

In August, in 5 games, R.A. Dickey was the Pitcher of Record of a 1-2 record with 2 ND and a 4.40 ERA over 30.2 IP. The Bullpen was 0-2 and a 11.12 ERA over 11.1 IP. The Bullpen cost R.A. Dickey and the team two wins with very bad performances. They permitted one Allowed Run to score.

In September, in 6 games, R.A. Dickey was the Pitcher of Record of a 4-1 record with a ND and a 2.48 ERA over 40.0 IP. The Bullpen was 0-1 and a 0.82 ERA over 11.0 IP. The Bullpen cost R.A. Dickey and the team a win with very bad performances. No Allowed Run scored.

R.A. Dickey finished as the Pitcher of Record of a 14-13 record with a 3.71 ERA over 215.2 IP. It's distinctly possible he could have been the Pitcher of Record with 21 Wins and a 3.42 ERA. That what a better Bullpen could have done for him. Of course, somewhere in-between is just fine.
Richard S.S. - Monday, February 02 2015 @ 12:13 AM EST (#297454) #
And that's just one Starter, R.A. Dickey over one year, 2014. He's the same Pitcher that won the CY Young, without the CY Young-caliber support Team he should have. This year could be it, if A.A. gets it done.

This team has always been one or two players light, due to Budget limits. To talk plausible "what ifs" just start with Erwin Santana. With the ability to spend $15.0 MM around then might we have him signed before Atlanta has it's problem and steals him away? With the ability to take on Salary, would we have gotten Chase Headly and Martin Prado (and then traded for Nathan Eovaldi this offseason)? We could have been in the postseason.

To start this offseason we had holes in 2B, LF, CF, and 2 or 3 in the Bullpen. Right now we have holes in 2B, CF, the Rotation and 2 in the Bullpen. The culture of the Team may have been changed. The Defense should be much better. Filling holes in-house only matters if they are better than anyone else that was available at any time. If not, that's a failure by the GM. Right now, A.A. has failed this team, because the Team is not better where it matters most: Pitching, Defense, up-the middle.
Richard S.S. - Monday, February 02 2015 @ 03:41 AM EST (#297455) #
A.A. said prior to the 2014 Draft that they were changing the focus of the draft and everyone nodded yeah and went on with what they were doing. I just remembered that as I was looking over my Draft Lists. Checking the stats of the entire 2014 Draft, I found most had decent - good - very good years. In comparison, the 2013 Draft stats for that year and this show that few have comparable stats for either year. Even though 2014 was a windfall Draft with picks 9, 11 and 49, it wasn't considered a great draft. Considering how everyone performed, it is a much better Draft than first thought. Even though, the first round pick in 2013 was not signed, it was considered a very strong Draft for who was signed, and it has yet to turn out that well. Perhaps someone better qualified can assess each draft classes initial year to determine which is the best draft. And I think subsequent years should be compared with subsequent years.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, February 02 2015 @ 08:48 AM EST (#297456) #
Turning back to Eephus' question, it's too hard to picture a scenario where the Jays have an even chance, let alone a greater than even one, of signing Price or Cueto. It may be instead, that throwing excessive dollars at James Shields is the only chance they have to sign any of the three. The market looks to have figured out that a long term deal to a mid-30's pitcher is not smart. I was thinking of it this way.

Victor Martinez re-signed with the Tigers for 4/68. I think if Russell Martin had signed with a US team the deal would have been in the same neighbourhood. But I can't see James Shields being worth the same, certainly as Victor Martinez, and likely as Russell Martin. There are a lot of innings on an aging arm that has never really been in the star category. Mike G. had Shields in the 3/39-3/42 area if I recall correctly in terms of a fair value contract. I suspect that Shields will end up on a 3/50 - 4/68 deal with one of the major US clubs, the Yankees being the most likely. Of course, I thought Max Scherzer was a shoe-in to sign with the Yankees as well. I don't think the type of contract that would be necessary for Shields to come to Canada would be justifiable.
Mike Green - Monday, February 02 2015 @ 10:20 AM EST (#297457) #
Max Scherzer was a shoe-in

Sorry, CBDC, you're going to have to do a little better than that if you want to make the "top 20 typos in February" list!
bpoz - Monday, February 02 2015 @ 10:44 AM EST (#297458) #
I really like talking about the drafts. The great hope and then the eventual disappointment.
Take 2003 there was a fair amount of hope on my part. But in the end 4 players made it. A Hill & S Marcum were quite good. T Mastny did OK. And Ryan Roberts may have made it but I am not sure. So 2003 may have been one of our better drafts.
Shaker - Monday, February 02 2015 @ 10:49 AM EST (#297459) #
I have waffled pretty hard on Shields over the last few weeks.  Still surprised he hasn't signed...though not sure it means he gets paid any less.

A contract of 4 x $18 appears reasonable to me.  If JS wants to play for you, that $72M should get it done.

Lately I've been thinking a contract that looks like this might bring him to TO:
$14+17+18+15+12 = $76M over 5 years.

This offer gives JS the 5 years he covets and may be more team friendly than $72M for 4 years.

Pretty much all of us are in agreement that we are a good team, but one typical/significant/expected injury and we are frankly no longer a playoff team unless ALL rookies break the right way.  Possible but unlikely.  Shields brings us the innings and creates the depth to allow us to believe 2015 could finally be the year we make the playoffs again.

Caution meet wind.
92-93 - Monday, February 02 2015 @ 12:29 PM EST (#297462) #
If you could trade Dickey/Thole for value and sign Shields for a similar commitment (14m), you have a much better looking team in 2015.
Mike Green - Monday, February 02 2015 @ 12:37 PM EST (#297464) #
I don't know that you would get that much for Dickey.  He's probably worth more to the Jays in 2015, even with someone like Shields, than to most other clubs.  He is a pretty decent bet to give you 180-190 league average innings, which is particularly helpful to the Jays in 2015 who are short on depth after the Donaldson trade.

I'd be happy if the club acquired Shields at 3/42.  We shall see. 



dalimon5 - Monday, February 02 2015 @ 03:35 PM EST (#297471) #
Put Dickey in KC the past two years and JS in the skydome and I think you'd be surprised how much stronger Dickeys numbers will look compared to his last 2 years.
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