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The Box was there.


In fact, if you watch the video on the Jays web-site, you can actually see the back of my bald head for a fleeting second at the very bottom of the screen - it's the second head from the right, at the three second mark. Internet immortality. I has it now.

This event is rather like a Pep Rally for season-ticket holders. The gates open at 5:30, and everyone mills around the concourse level for an hour sampling the free food and drink. There were serving persons wandering around with trays laden with glasses of wine - this type of event is clearly wasted on the likes of me. I wandered around myself, looking for a familiar face. Couldn't find one. Settled for a drink of water.

The event began promptly at 6:30. The stage (that's what Buck called it) was the top of the third base dugout, and the four armchairs on top were occupied by (from left to right) John Gibbons, Alex Anthopoulos, Paul Beeston, and the evening's Master of Ceremonies Buck Martinez. M.C. Buck first called our attention to the video screen, where a promo video ran for a few minutes; he then introduced the three gentlemen sharing "the stage" with him, with special props for Beeston, who apparently is moving on after this season. This got a rise out of everyone, and Beeston got a mini-standing ovation. We watched another video, which showed highlights of the Jays winter tour - it prominently featured footage of Jose Bautista and R.A. Dickey, as well as young Jays being dazzled with their first sight of Banff. Which is pretty darn dazzling. Stephen Brooks from Business Operations was summoned to explain how the team is moving into digital ticketing, which has some of the season-ticket holders a bit concerned. M.C. Buck added some more information on this, as well as mentioning that the Fantasy Camp will be returning.

And now it was Question Time. Season-ticket holders had submitted questions by email, and M.C. Buck now directed them to the appropriate party. But the first one came from M.C. Buck himself, who essentially asked Anthopoulos why 25 guys who played for the team last year weren't coming back. Anthopoulos, as you might expect, chose to focus on the players who were coming, especially the new ones. He particularly emphasized the durability of Donaldson and the defensive skills of Saunders.

The first fan question was for Anthopoulos, who was asked him what he thought was the biggest need for him to address immediately. He said "Bullpen depth." He's not all that worried about the ninth inning, specifically mentioning Brett Cecil as someone who could take care of that job. There are still free-agent options, he said, and they're still talking to teams about trades.

And so it went. Beeston reaffirmed that team is determined to get real grass into the Dome, that 2018 is the target year, and that they've signed a contract with the University of Guelph to make it happen. While we know they've been talking for some time, Beeston said last night that the deal is done. Which represents the Actual News portion of the evening. Beeston said that they've worked out some of the technical aspects (Sunlight, water) but not all of them (air currents? It is a complicated thing, though. If you're interested in some of the technical challenges have a look at this.) He mentioned that the Dome is now one of the oldest facilities in the major leagues, and does need a bit of upkeep these days. He stuck up for the very corporate owners who've been trying to push him out the door - "we'll have a top ten payroll" - and he's satisfied that the team has all the resources it needs. Beeston also affirmed that the team would like to continue it's spring training relationship with Dunedin - they've been there since Day One, it's wonderfully convenient, the Phillies and Yankees are just down the road, and we all live there. The Jays want to stay, Dunedin wants them to stay, but the actual spring training facility just doesn't cut it anymore.

Anthopoulos was asked if there were plans to extend Bautista and Encarnacion and make them Jays for life. He was instantly on his guard - "there's media here."  At some point, he expects to sit down with them - he says they like being here, that this is the team and city that embraced them, the place where they became stars. He was also asked how the Melky Cabrera negotiation went sour. Anthopoulos didn't like using the word "sour" to describe it; he mentioned that they talked with Cabrera and his agent in June about working out a deal but they wanted to keep it out of the press and decided to let the season play out. And in the winter, stuff - mainly, Russell Martin - just happened. The market for Cabrera was a bit of a moving target at that time, and then the chance to get Michael Saunders - "a guy we've been trying to get for three years" - became a reality. He said some very nice things about Cabrera being a great guy in the clubhouse and his enthusiasm for being here, and said some even nicer things about Saunders. The last question for Anthopoulos was whether Daniel Norris has a chance to be in the rotation this season. He more or less guaranteed it, saying that that the Norris we saw in September is not the real Norris, that he was dealing with bone chips in his elbow. That's been cleaned up, he's throwing off the mound and feels great. Anthopoulos essentially compared him to Matt Harvey.

John Gibbons, with the relaxed and affable manner of someone playing with the house's money, was there providing entertainment value. He hemmed and hawed, rather like all of us, about whether Aaron Sanchez ends up in the rotation or the bullpen - we'll just have to see how things play out this spring. He mentioned Norris and Estrada as other candidates for the fifth starter - "We've got solutions, we just haven't decided on them yet." At second base, he ran through the four obvious names, with special attention to Izturis - who Gibbons says wants the job and is a little frustrated at how things have gone for him here -  and Devon Travis. "It's there for the taking if somebody wants it." And then he remembered Kawasaki - "he's like a bad penny that keeps coming up." Gibbons was also asked about the strengths and weaknesses of the rotation and bullpen and what he would like to add to make the pitching staff complete.

To which he said "James Shields." And after the laugh, "Sorry, Alex."

The last question of the night was for Gibbons: while the top of the batting order looks very impressive indeed, the bottom half is - well, it looks like the other thing. The word "weak" was used. Gibbons quickly protested "Well, we got a new hitting coach. What else do you want?" M.C. Buck chipped in as his ally "that's personal, we always hit in the bottom of the batting order." Gibbons essentially said that's it's not weak, "it's just that the top is so strong you're just a little...(long pause) confused."

"It'll be interesting to ask him that in July" said M.C. Buck.

And that was it. Beeston wrapped it up by thanking M.C. Buck for his service as player, manager, and broadcaster, invoked 1992, and offered to buy everyone a beer up top.




State of the Franchise | 119 comments | Create New Account
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Jonny German - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 05:51 AM EST (#297523) #
But the first one came from M.C. Buck himself, who essentially asked Anthopoulos why 25 guys who played for the team last year weren't coming back.

Had to check this... waddyaknow, it's literally true!

Cabrera
Rasmus
Lind
Lawrie
Francisco

Happ
Janssen
McGowan
Morrow
Santos

Gose
Reimold
Johnson
Sierra
Mastroianni

Mayberry
Getz
Kottaras
Gillespie
Rogers

Wagner
Graveman
Mills
Jeffress
Nolin
Jonny German - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 06:08 AM EST (#297524) #
The last question of the night was for Gibbons: while the top of the batting order looks very impressive indeed, the bottom half is - well, it looks like the other thing. The word "weak" was used."

I'm not at all convinced this is an issue. If you start the season with Pompey & Travis in Buffalo (which I would, barring injuries), the lineups look something like this to open the season:

   vs RH		   vs LH
6  Reyes #		6  Reyes #
2  Martin		2  Martin
9  Bautista		9  Bautista
0  Encarnacion		3  Encarnacion
5  Donaldson		5  Donaldson
8  Saunders *		0  Navarro #
7  Dirks *		8  Pillar
3  Smoak #		7  Saunders *
4  Izturis #		4  Izturis #

You have to define "bottom half" as just 7-8-9 before you can say the hitters there are weak, and even then there's potential for them to be above league average. Izturis is of course a weak spot, but how many teams have a good hitter in the 9th spot?
John Northey - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 08:54 AM EST (#297525) #
McGowan and Reimold are still free agents so I guess either could still end up here.  Still, that does look like a lot of turnover doesn't it?  Last year the Jays did use 55 players though so that means 30 guys are still here who played with the team last year.  Just over 45% of the roster is gone.

For comparison, the first Jay playoff team (1985) used 40 players.  Just 3 pitchers didn't appear in '86 here (Leal, Ron Musselman, Filer), while 8 hitters didn't (Burroughs, Oliver, Matuszek, Nicosia, Webster, Thornton, Aikens, Allenson) although a few were in the Jays minors.  So a total of 11 players shifted or just over 1/4 of the roster (28%).

Anyone want to dig into the 92/93 teams?  It seemed like a lot of turnover but I need to run.
Mike Green - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 09:20 AM EST (#297526) #
I agree with Jonny about the bottom of the order.  Assuming that Travis and Pompey are healthy, I would have both up at the start of the season (sacrificing a year of service time for a better chance to win now).  Pompey would bat ninth, and would probably hit better than the average 9 hitter.  Travis, if healthy, is going to be fine hitter right off the bat and quite a bit better than Izturis both at the plate and in the field.
Paul D - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 09:29 AM EST (#297527) #
Reimold is back in Baltimore.
Mike Green - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 09:48 AM EST (#297528) #
Danny Valencia won his arbitration case.  The difference between the club and player numbers was $475,000. Donaldson, a much bigger deal, is next.

Magpie - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 10:24 AM EST (#297530) #
Anyone want to dig into the 92/93 teams?

I thought you'd never ask.

By my reckoning, 21 players who played for the 1992 champs weren't back in 1993. Three of them, of course, had moved on before the 1992 season was even over: Kent, Myers, and Ducey were all traded away in mid-season. Roughly half the lineup (Lee, Gruber, Maldonado, Winfield) and half the pitching staff (Cone, Key, Wells, Stieb, Henke) were allowed to leave as free agents. The others not returning were Tabler, Mulliniks (careers over), Derek Bell (traded following spring), MacDonald (sold following spring), Maksudian, Zosky, Quinlan, Weathers, Trlicek. Quite the turnover, actually.

14 men who played for the 1993 champs didn't appear for the Jays in 1994, strike-shortened season or not. One of them, Duane Ward, missed the season with an injury; two (Jackson and Linton) had moved on before the 1993 season was over. The others were Fernandez, Henderson, Morris, Eichhorn (all free agents), Griffin, Dayley (careers over), Martinez, Ward, Canate, Sojo, and Flener.
melondough - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 10:25 AM EST (#297531) #
Anyone know when the Donaldson arbitration case is scheduled for? If not, when do they announce that?

It appears from Alex's comments he is in talks with some relievers but not those that were traditional closers last year.

That said, with respect to those FA Relievers remaining, I would be very pleased if we were able to sign Badenhop.

Now what about Veras? Any interest there? Houston turned down his $5.5M option which any team would have done. I am ok with a minor league deal if he were willing.

I am also intrigued with Burton, Coke, Chamberlain, and McGowan. They need to add depth here.
Mike Green - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 10:31 AM EST (#297532) #
I noticed that Jonny would have Saunders in center-field against RHP.  Saunders has put on a fair bit of weight over the last few years and does not move well enough to be an effective defensive centerfielder.  It happens.  Melky Cabrera was a centefielder for quite a few years. 

The defensive difference between Pompey and Saunders would be huge. 

Oceanbound - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 10:37 AM EST (#297533) #
I don't see Martin hitting second. That BABIP is going to regress hard. He might still be a slightly above average hitter, but I don't really expect more than that.
John Northey - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 10:58 AM EST (#297535) #
I do wonder what those final free agents are after.  McGowan would be a nice to have, Chamberlain I'd love to get here, Coke is a 'meh' (6.4 K/9 3.1 BB/9 does not thrill me), as is Burton (6.5, 3.5 K & BB per 9). 
Richard S.S. - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 11:03 AM EST (#297536) #
What? That's not reasonable. Hitting Pompey and Reyes, 1-2 in some order, is acceptable, both are lead-off hitting types, and that really stretches out the line-up 1-7?). Alternatively hitting Saunders second should also work well, younger legs and better speed than Martin. This should stretch out the lineup as well (1-6?).
Chuck - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 11:57 AM EST (#297537) #
I don't see Martin hitting second.

I am guessing he will. He is coming off a .400 OBP and is at .350 for his career. Steamer has him pegged for .340 for 2015, so even that would play.

Further, there are the optics. He just signed for a jillion dollars, so he's not about to bat 7th or anything. He's going to be made a prominent part of the offense until he shows a reason that he shouldn't be.

Dalton Pompey is likely going to struggle some and may prove he's not ready for the majors yet. A nice safe spot in the 9th hole would serve him well, and position him as a low-rent wraparound leadoff hitter.

Saunders is the wild card in all this. Given Donaldson's career platoon splits, I'd like to see Saunders' lefty bat break up the string of righties and bat him ahead of Donaldson. But these are human beings and not Strat-O-Matic cards, and I don't think that will happen. Again, optics. Donaldson's prominence will preclude the "diss" of batting him 6th. And Saunders' checkered health and performance histories (albeit on the ascent) mean that he'll have to prove himself first.

Martin's off-days will likely result in the second baseman du jour stepping into the 2-hole.

Mike Green - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 12:14 PM EST (#297538) #
What Chuck said, with one exception.  I would hope that if Travis starts the season in the minor leagues, Gibbons would not bat Izturis in the #2 hole when Martin sits.  Saunders would be a respectable candidate in that instance.

melondough - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 12:52 PM EST (#297539) #
With most executives figuring Shields is about to sign with San Diego, there is also word that the Cubs and Jays are still "kicking tires". If that's true is seems quite reminiscent of when the Jays swooped in and signed Martin when word was he was close to going to the Cubs.

So does anyone feel an offer to Shields equal to exactly the same (5 years, $82M) as the one made to Martin would:

A) Be enough to get Sheilds to sign here
B) Be an overpay (2015:$7M, 2016:$15M, 2017-19:$20M Per)

Just curious
Richard S.S. - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 01:00 PM EST (#297540) #
I could see
Reyes (SW),
Bautista (R),
Donaldson (R),
Saunders (L),
Encarnacion (R),
Martin (R),
Smoak (SW),
Izturis (SW) and
Pompey (SW),
as it breaks up the RH hitter reasonable well, otherwise 4 RH hitters in a row might be awkward with four Switch-Hitter and a Lefty in a row. That just makes it too easy for Opposing Managers to manage.
John Northey - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 01:16 PM EST (#297541) #
Shields at 5/$82 would be fine by me.  I'm not in favour of 5/$100 but 4/$80 I'd think is my limit but one more year for $2 mil more is A-OK as the risk/reward is fine there.  Doubt it would get him as I think someone will offer 4/$80 so unless a 5th year is a deal breaker and no one else would do it I don't see it happening.  If someone offers him $110+ for 6+ years then I'd say time to step away and let it be.
Richard S.S. - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 01:29 PM EST (#297542) #
MLB Trade Rumors does very accurate arbitration award estimates. Whether Danny Valencia won (actually) or lost his Arby Hearing, his awards would both be less than the $1.7 MM estimated. Donaldson's award might be precedent-setting if he wins, $.5.75 MM is considerably more than A.A.'s $4.2 MM (MLB Trade Rumors $4.5 MM).
If A. A. does win, $4.20 MM, $8.40 MM, $12.60 MM, $16.80 MM, then free agency.
If Donaldson wins, $5.75 MM, $11.5 MM, $17.25 MM, $23.00 MM then free agency.
That's not going to be reasonable negotiating ever, unless A.A. can save on a long-term deal, 5 years plus an option at this point $56.0 MM plus $4.0 MM buyout of a $16.0 MM option.
cybercavalier - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 02:17 PM EST (#297544) #
as it breaks up the RH hitter reasonable well, otherwise 4 RH hitters in a row might be awkward with four Switch-Hitter and a Lefty in a row.

Can I ask shall Reyes hit second because of his switch hitting ?
Shaker - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 02:31 PM EST (#297545) #
melondough, I asked Alex about Shields last night at the Dome...

When I suggested 4 x $18 would be great, he said (something like) that may get him to sign on the west coast but not here.  When I responded 4 x $20, he said no - a bit more than 20 to get him north of the border.

As a result, the Jays are looking at a minimum of $85M for 4 years - which is just way too much.

I don't think we'd sign him to a 5 year deal, but if we did it would have to be nearly $100M...so that too is a non-starter.

Time will tell, but my hopes have been dashed re Shields.

dan gordon - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 02:32 PM EST (#297546) #
Surprised that people aren't including Valencia in their projected lineups vs LHP. He destroys lefties. So far in his career he's a close approximation of Encarnacion and Bautista vs LHP. Career numbers vs LHP:

Valencia - .327/.368/.502/.870
Encarnacion - .272/.376/.506/.881
Bautista - .271/.379/.520/.899

Better average, fewer HR's, but very similar OPS numbers to EE and JB. More than 500 AB's, too, not like it has been a really small sample. I'd be shocked if they didn't get his bat in there vs lefties. Otherwise, there's no point in having him around. With those 3, plus Reyes, Donaldson, Martin, Pompey/Pillar, the Jays will be a tough slog for lefty starters.
Shaker - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 02:35 PM EST (#297547) #
oh and Donaldson should bat 2nd, with Saunders 5th and Martin 6th.


That leaves 1B/DH (Smoak/Valencia/Navarro) batting 7th followed by 2B and then CF.

John Northey - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 02:41 PM EST (#297548) #
So it looks like the Canada penalty is around $3 mil a year then for high end free agents.  Good that AA has a range in mind for what it would take, but knows that it might be too much.  I suspect he has a price he thinks is OK and doubts he'll get Shields for it but has it out there.
Mike Green - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 02:53 PM EST (#297549) #
I agree, Dan.  If it were me, I'd have Encarnacion as a full-time DH,  and Valencia and Smoak/Barton platooning at first base. Valencia is not only a better hitter than Navarro against LHP, but he also is a better fielder than Encarnacion at first base.  Mind you, I'd guess that opposing managers would probably try to avoid sending left-handers to the mound as much as possible because of the right-sided list to the lineup. 
Chuck - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 02:58 PM EST (#297550) #
So it looks like the Canada penalty is around $3 mil a year

No idea what the penalty might be in general but in the specific case of Shields, there does seem to be the added business about him being a west coaster and wanting to land there somewhere (for whatever value such talk has).

Oh, and I concur with the notion that Valencia starts against LHP. I imagine a Smoak/Valencia platoon at 1B will be the plan (unless Smoak gets washed out in spring training) with Encarnacion getting more and more time at DH.

Chuck - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 03:03 PM EST (#297551) #
I guess Mike and I are on the same page today. I made my comments before I saw his.

I, too, was going to suggest that opposition managers might manoeuvre to keep lefty starters away from the Jays (so righthanded are they), but I wonder how much flexibility teams really have in gerrymandering their rotations. And we'd only be talking about the fringy starters at the back of the rotation anyway, not the lefties that take regular turns.

John Northey - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 03:11 PM EST (#297552) #
30 years ago shuffling rotations was more common, but it really has fallen out of practice due to a need to have your rotation pitch on a standard schedule.  Generally guys do better if they know when they'll start.  Some shuffling is possible around off-days but there aren't a ton of those normally.  For example, the Jays have 2 days off in April (once the season gets started that is), 2 in May, 3 in June, 6 in July (4 day All-Star break), 4 in August, 3 in September.  So maybe once a week or so they could skip someone but really how often does it work smoothly to allow a team to skip a LHP vs a RH heavy team?  Not often.

I wouldn't worry too much on that front.  Make sure you mix the switch hitters and LH hitters as much as you can in the lineup to minimize the value of LOOGY's and ROOGY's but otherwise I wouldn't worry one way or the other.
uglyone - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 03:24 PM EST (#297553) #
yeah "weak bottom half" is a big exaggeration imo.

we have three slots with question marks offensively - 1B/DH, CF/LF, and 2B.

but there's lots of options for each of those, with only 2B having little hope for average hitting.

1B/DH

this is only really an issue vRHP, as Valencia is proven very good vLHP (135wrc+ last year, 134 last 3yrs, 138 career).

Last 3yrs vRHP:

Dirks 659pa, 111wRC+
Smoak 864pa, 102wRC+
Navarro 626pa, 101wRC+

we should be able to get around league average hitting here vRHP, and combined with well above league avg vLHP that should be a solid #7 slot in the order, not a weak spot.


CF/LF

obviously we want saunders in LF, but its nice to know we can put him in CF if necessary. that would open up the possibility of dirks being able to earn a spot in LF.

Vs. RHP last 3yrs

Pompey 27pa, 179wrc+
Saunders 869pa, 112wrc+
Dirks 659pa, 111wRC+
Pillar 146pa, 57wrc+

vLHP last 3yrs

Saunders 415pa, 102wRC+
Pillar 86pa, 102wRC+
Dirks 169pa, 92wrc+
Pompey 16pa, -23wrc+

so there's no reason not to play saunders every day.

obviously the best solution here is for pompey to be ready...but even if he isn't, a pillar/dirks platoon has the real potential to produce league avg offense, which is pretty good in the #8 slot. and really, both dirks and pillar have an outside chance being averagish hitters even as fulltime players.


2B

we pretty much have to hope travis is ready. because there's really no hope of having anything other than a black hole in this slot otherwise. tolleson might be able to keep hitting lefties, I guess.

all in all I doubt the bottom third ends up looking weak vs other bottom thirds, other than if injuries happen.
uglyone - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 03:39 PM EST (#297554) #
"Mind you, I'd guess that opposing managers would probably try to avoid sending left-handers to the mound as much as possible because of the right-sided list to the lineup."


its no field day for righties, either.

last 3yrs vRHP:

Reyes: 1299pa, 111wrc+
Martin: 1094pa, 111wrc+
Bautista: 1252pa, 143wrc+
Encarnacion: 1398pa, 146wrc+
Donaldson: 1185pa, 114wrc+
Saunders: 869pa, 112wrc+
Smoak: 864pa, 102wrc+ / Navarro: 626pa, 101wrc+
Pompey: 27pa, 179wrc+ / Dirks: 657pa, 111wrc+
Izturis: 535pa, 77wrc+

not sure that's any less scary than the reverse:

Reyes: 491pa, 99wrc+
Martin: 357pa, 112wrc+
Bautista: 348pa, 152wrc+
Encarnacion: 409pa, 155wrc+
Donaldson: 472pa, 168wrc+
Saunders: 415pa, 102wrc+
Valencia: 282pa, 134wrc+
Tolleson: 182pa, 113wrc+
Pillar: 86pa, 102wrc+
Chuck - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 03:44 PM EST (#297555) #
[re first base...] we should be able to get around league average hitting here vRHP

Not to be pedantic, but league average hitting at 1B is not the same as position average hitting at 1B. The offensive bar at 1B is obviously much higher than league norms.

uglyone - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 03:56 PM EST (#297556) #
no doubt, but I'm not sure that's what matters.

avg vRHP + well above avg vLHP would be pretty sweet to get from your #7 slot, no matter what position they play.

that's how paying the big bucks for an SS and C who can hit at the top of the lineup pays off.
eudaimon - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 04:03 PM EST (#297558) #
Luis Perez is apparently back, signed to a minor league deal

https://twitter.com/MattEddyBA/status/563784970435436544

Richard S.S. - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 04:06 PM EST (#297559) #
With Catchers Josh Thole and Dioner Navarro (who is a good trade asset) both on the Bench, that reduces the Bullpen from 7 Relievers to 6. If Edwin Encarnacion somehow becomes 1B then Dioner can DH, but that means no more Justin Smoak.

I'd like Andy Dirks as 4th Outfielder and either Dalton Pompey (the favorite) or Kevin Pillar as Starting CF. That leaves a good young CF prospect (of some kind) left for fan value in Buffalo and first OF call-up. As it is, there's not much prospect value in AAA this coming season, with future team need possibilities.

Danny Valencia makes the team as backup for 1B, 3B and ???, because he is very good, hits well and is our best choice for the job needs. Any alternative to Danny currently on the Team is nothing but a downgrade at this position.

If Devon Travis is our 2B, then Maicer Izturis is backup for 2B, SS, 3B. Steve Tolleson must now be DFA'd and hope he clears waivers. If Maicer is 2B, then Tolleson can be kept if we go with just 6 Relievers. If we can't then there's that DFA issue again.

There's still a small possibility that Justin Smoak doesn't make the Team, that opens up room for others. The other problem is how many Relievers must this team have? This Team will not be settled until the last day or two of Spring Training, because of all the alternatives.
Shaker - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 04:50 PM EST (#297560) #
3 assertions in your first 24 words...are any of them accurate?

Assertion 1: Three Catchers on our roster.  Do you know this?  When did Gibby and Alex tell you this and why do they keep it private?
Assertion 2: Dioner Navarro is a good trade asset.  How do you know this?  No other GM has made a play to acquire him and his contract.
Assertion 3: You state we will have 3 Catchers, THEREFORE the bullpen will be just 6 pitchers.  Absolutely false on many levels.  How did you draw this conclusion?  Again why did Alex and Gibby only tell you the exact makeup of the roster prior to Spring Training?

Richard, please stop making blanket statements that are non-factual.

Thanks, have a great weekend.

jerjapan - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 05:03 PM EST (#297561) #
Thole has an option no?  With all the talk of Martin catching dickey and Navarro at DH and backup catcher, I can't see Thole making this team.   a pity he hasn't developed at all - he showed some on base skills with the mets that have yet to materialize with the Jays.
John Northey - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 05:07 PM EST (#297562) #
Right now we have to assume 3 catchers as after seeing JPA and Navarro try to catch Dickey I think it is safe to say Martin, while a better catcher, will also have troubles thus Thole will be on the roster.  Until Navarro is traded that means 3 catchers.

Navarro was a solid hitter for a catcher, heck around league average so a decent hitter period.  At $5 mil he is a solid guy to have.  To assume no other GM has 'made a play' is a heck of an assumption.  Odds are others have asked but AA has asked for more than just salary relief or a player - he wants both and might figure waiting it out will work out.

As to the bullpen, I figure 7 guys will be the pen almost no matter what.  April has just 2 off days so a full pen will be needed.  The staff has 2 guys who are horses (Dickey, Buehrle), 2 kids (Hutchison, Stroman) who haven't had 200 innings in a season yet, and likely another kid for the final slot who will probably get 150-170 innings this year (Sanchez or Norris).  That means most of the time the pen will be pushed 2 or 3 deep thus a need for 7 relievers or expect some burnout quickly.  I wouldn't be shocked by an 8 man pen in April at times.

Remember though - we are all just speculating.  No one here (to my knowledge) is a member of the Jays front office or a player on the team (although parents/family members of players have been members before, in secret).  So just assume that all of us are just saying our POV's - no need to attack.
Lylemcr - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 05:11 PM EST (#297563) #
I don't have an issue with the lineup as is. The issue is when Saunders and Reyes are hurt at game 20. It will be ...sigh

That being said, I am optimistic on Smoak and Dirks. I think one of them will work out.
Chuck - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 05:22 PM EST (#297564) #
Looking at the photo, I can't help think See No Evil (eyes blocked), Speak No Evil (mouth to the side), Hear No Evil (one ear turned away).

That's as optimistic as I get.

Mike Green - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 05:37 PM EST (#297565) #
Last year, the AL teams ranged from 1558 PAs against LHP (the Astros) to 2088 PAs against LHP (the Mariners).  The Angels had 1653 PAs against LHP.   The Angels had a wRC+ of 120 against LHP; the Astros had a 111.  The Mariners had a wRC+ of 82 against LHP.  You can check the splits against RHP to see that the Angels and Astros were indeed lefty-mashing while the Mariners were lefty-challenged. 

It does seem that opposing Managers may be able to swing 250-500 fewer PAs against LHP for the lefty-mashing clubs wiithout disrupting rotations too much.
uglyone - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 05:51 PM EST (#297566) #
I don't think there's a chance of three catchers. all noises from martin and AA indicate that the intention is for martin to catch dickey. I think it would be crazy yo pay this much for an elite defensive catcher and not let him catch dickey.

bench looks clear to me.

if pompey and travis are ready:

UT Valencia
OF Pillar
IF Izturis
C Navarro

if pompey and travis aren't ready, then dirks and tolleson get first crack.
dan gordon - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 06:29 PM EST (#297567) #
Good to see Luis Perez back. He was pretty good in 2012, got hurt in 2013, had TJ surgery, which he rehabbed last year. Another one in the cast of thousands for the bullpen.
scottt - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 08:44 PM EST (#297568) #
Catching all of Dickey's games is not the same as catching some of Dickey's games. For all we know Dickey nullifies all of his defensive abilities. We don't know if he can catch or even block a knuckle ball. I'd be surprised if he can frame one.

Martin got 1 gold glove, when he was 24. He wasn't particularly effective playing for the Yankees. I don't think he'd in Toronto if he wasn't a Canadian. He's a huge upgrade over JPA and I think it will be nice to watch him work with the young pitchers, but his best years are behind him.

I don't think AA expects salary relief and a player for Navarro. Navarro for a prospect saves 5M. Navarro for a player good enough to make the team might not save much. I think it's an AA trait to hoard at one position while there's glaring holes at others. Some sort of Obsessive Compulsive Disorder.

Mike Green - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 10:49 PM EST (#297569) #
The February 6 birthday team features a pretty good everyday lineup:

C- Smoky Burgess
1B- Dale Long
2B- Frank LaPorte
SS- Glenn Wright
3B- Pedro Alvarez
RF- Babe Ruth
CF-Chad Allen
LF- Richie Zisk

Alas, the pitching staff features Ruth (who probably would pitch occasionally in high leverage situations only), Travis Wood, Bob Wickman, Bill Dawley, Mark Hutton, Walt Huntzinger and two nineteenth century pitchers. 

Ruth day ought to be a holiday...

uglyone - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 11:14 PM EST (#297570) #
weird that you'd portray him as over the hill.

last 2yrs catchers:

Defense (fangraphs Def Runs):

1. R.Martin 238gms, +37.6
2. S.Perez 288gms, +32.6
3. Y.Molina 246gms, +31.6
4. W.Castillo 223gms, +30.6
5. J.Lucroy 300gms, +24.8

by far the best catcher defensive rating on baseball....and that doesn't even include pitch framing, where he also ranks super elite.

he's also pretty good with the bat last 2 yrs..

Offense (wRC+ min.100gms)

1. B.Posey 295gms, 139
2. C.Santana 306gms, 132
3. J.Lucroy 300gms, 125
4. Y.Gomes 223gms, 125
5. R.Martin 238gms, 120


which means overall....

WAR

1. B.Posey 295gms, +10.1 (+5.1/150)
2. J.Lucroy 300gms, +9.8 (+4.9/150)
3. R.Martin 238gms, +9.4 (+5.9/150)
4. Y.Molina 246gms, +8.6 (+5.2/150)
5. Y.Gomes 223gms, +8.2 (+5.5/150)



Last two years he's been the most valuable catcher in baseball on a per game basis, and third best total. and again, that doesn't even include pitch framing, where he also ranks amongst the 2 or 3 best.

maybe his "best years are behind him"......but if so they'd be JUST behind him.






Mike Green - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 11:29 PM EST (#297571) #
According to BP's numbers, Martin is the 3rd best pitch-framer of modern times over his career behind only Brad Ausmus and Jose Molina.  He has been an absolutely great defensive catcher- long may he run. 
jerjapan - Saturday, February 07 2015 @ 03:49 AM EST (#297572) #
I really don't there's a roster scenario out there that permits three catchers.

4 OF is a minimum - you need to rest / dh bautista sometimes, saunders is injury prone and could be platooned, and your next 2 guys are prospects.  no way do we run with 3 OF.

while our top 4 seem solid, our 5th starter is going to be pretty uncertain - this is clearly not the year we go with a 6 man pen, which this management would never consider anyway,  so a 12 man pitching staff seems most likely, 13 in weird cases.

this leaves 7 slots of the !F - donaldson, reyes, EE(technically speaking), 1b platoon of valencia and smoak, 2b position battle winner (likely Izturis) and backup SS - Santiago? 

where does thole's spot come from?  does valencia play 2nd so that izturis backs up reyes?  shudder.  does smoak win the first base job outright? 

and Scottt, let's agree to disagree that the lack of a navarro trade means that AA is a hoarder - what other examples do you have of his hoarding?  I can't think of any. 



Magpie - Saturday, February 07 2015 @ 08:24 AM EST (#297573) #
The Yankees staff was 8th in ERA the year before Martin arrived. Their staff was 4th and 5th in ERA during the two years he was there. In the two years since, they've gone right back to... 8th and 8th.

Lots of other stuff involved, as always. But a pleasing piece of symmetry.
bpoz - Saturday, February 07 2015 @ 11:24 AM EST (#297574) #
In 2012 a 2nd wild card team was added to the playoffs. That was the year that AA made the 2 big trades. He acquired talent & the payroll became significantly higher. However this gave him a good chance to reap the financial rewards of being in the playoffs.

If it is ALL about finances then the payroll has to have parameters. There is also a limit to how much you can prepare for injuries, poor performance & bad luck.

The rich teams are willing to spend more than the poorer teams to combat the above negatives. The more money you spend and still do not make the playoffs the bigger your loss is. Except being close/competitive in a playoff race will also generate more revenue.

So how do you make this hard decision? The FO has to know how, it is their decision to make and based on the various factors. On July 31,2014 Oakland had 66 wins, LAA 64 wins and Baltimore & Toronto 60 wins.
Oakland made a lot of moves and Toronto did not, but both teams went down hill.

I am not sure of what strategy is the 3rd option.
92-93 - Saturday, February 07 2015 @ 11:48 AM EST (#297575) #
Welcome back, Magpie. I too was at the State of the Franchise for I believe the 4th year in a row now, and this is a terrific summation of what went on.

A few comments:

1. Beeston's tone was considerably less definitive about grass in 2018 this year, despite the Guelph "announcement".

2. While the new turf's richer green may look nice from the overhead, it looked pretty bad from behind home plate in the 100s. I hope it was just the way the lighting was set up, because I don't want be staring at that greyish green garbage all season.

3. I thought it was funny when Stephen Brooks said that we are in good company because Boston & Detroit also have mobile ticketing systems for seasons ticket holders. If only we were in their good company when it comes to ownership's willingness to spend money.

4. I may have been drunk by then, but I think AA mentioned something about the Level of Excellence when the Bautista/Encarnacion question was floated, which got me thinking about Bautista's role in team history and whether or not he belongs up there. I was comparing Bautista to Vernon, and while Bautista will surpass Vernon in HRs this year, he won't catch him in runs or RBIs without an extension. They both belong up there.

5. Gibby looks great. You could hear some murmuring (boos?) when he was announced by Albert Martinez, and the Kawasaki quip got a nice little stir.
Mike Green - Saturday, February 07 2015 @ 01:13 PM EST (#297576) #
Quick teaser:  who added more value to the Blue Jays during his tenure- Vernon Wells or Jesse Barfield? Cryptic clue: BKNRBI.
jerjapan - Saturday, February 07 2015 @ 04:08 PM EST (#297577) #
barfield 10 times out of ten.  no idea what that clue means though ...
Gerry - Saturday, February 07 2015 @ 04:35 PM EST (#297578) #

The Jays signed 21 year-old John Stephens from BC this week. Alexis Brudnicki has the interesting story.

Stephens played during his high school days at Earl Marriott High School in Surrey, but he left early to help take care of his mother who had fallen ill. When he did complete his secondary schooling, he moved on to a community college before once again leaving to assist his mother, who has since recovered. Between then and now, his baseball resume appears to draw a blank, searches only resulting in his British Columbia Premier Baseball League player page with statistics from 11 games with the Vancouver Cannons almost four years ago.

Shaker - Saturday, February 07 2015 @ 08:41 PM EST (#297579) #
Is there a way to see how many games we played with a 6-man pen, a 7-man pen and an 8-man pen in 2014?

I agree with John that we are most likely to see 7 and 8-man bullpens in April. Let's use 7 and add 5 starters. So a 12 man pitching staff.

That leaves 13 batters. Riffing on jer's point above, it's a pretty tight fit for many of the bench names thrown around above.

If we assume 4 OF, the 4 starting IF, 2C and (EE at) DH that leaves only 2 spots.

Given Reyes' injury history I would guess we would have a backup SS on the roster. A typical MIF utility guy.

That leaves one final spot.

So it can't be Valencia AND Dirks AND Tolleson/Goins/Kawasaki AND Navarro/Thole! It's only one of those names and this 13th batter is only on the roster if/when we only use 12 pitchers.
scottt - Saturday, February 07 2015 @ 09:29 PM EST (#297580) #
The Reds signed Badenhop for 2.5M. That doesn't sound much. I say AA is only doing minor league deals at this point--which fits with his comment about not signing "traditional closers". 
vw_fan17 - Saturday, February 07 2015 @ 09:38 PM EST (#297581) #
no idea what that clue means though ...

My best guess: Baserunner Kills Not RBI
Mike Green - Saturday, February 07 2015 @ 10:03 PM EST (#297582) #
Right and right. 

In less than two weeks pitchers and catchers report.  Speaking of spring training, I learned last week that the Cubs' spring training park in Mesa was re-made last year with many of the features of Wrigley Field.  It seats 14K, and they were selling out.  I imagine with Bryant, Soler, Lester et. al on hand this year, it'll be a zoo. 

greenfrog - Sunday, February 08 2015 @ 01:34 PM EST (#297583) #
MLBTR is reporting that people in baseball expect Shields to receive somewhere around 4/$72-75m.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/02/latest-on-talks-between-padres-james-shields.html

I know Shields carries some age- and mileage-related risks, but given the "win-now" construction of the Jays' roster, I would be content to see the Jays make an offer in the range of 4/$78-82m. The Jays need to push for 90+ wins in 2015 and 2016. Shields could help them achieve this goal and simplify the team's remaining shopping list. Anthopoulos could start the season with Stroman/Hutchison/Shields/Buehrle/Dickey in the rotation and Estrada and Sanchez (and eventually Norris) in the bullpen, where they probably best fit in 2015.

Sanchez and Norris can contend for a rotation spot in 2015 if injuries or underperformance ensue, and one or both would be in line to join the rotation in 2016.

Shields would basically take over the Buehrle "expensive starting pitcher" salary slot once Buehrle departs after 2015.

Signing Shields probably doesn't make sense with a $130m payroll, but it could make sense if Rogers is willing to spend a bit more and really double down on the current roster.
jerjapan - Sunday, February 08 2015 @ 02:36 PM EST (#297584) #
100% agree with all points Greenfrog.  Fangraphs is reporting the same, or slightly lower, contract estimates.  i don't see it happening here, but I certainly think it is a significant enough move to make a major increase in our playoff chances.  I also think it means that Sanchez and Norris get a few valuable months starting in AAA, addressing service time issues (thus potentially mitigating the cost of the Shields contract) and allowing them to get their innings in but remain bullpen options later in the season. 
CeeBee - Sunday, February 08 2015 @ 03:17 PM EST (#297585) #
How much more would it take to get Shields to forgo his California dreaming? We probably won't ever know but if a guy has his mind set on a certain area it might not be so easy as just throwing a few million more out there.
Shaker - Sunday, February 08 2015 @ 03:47 PM EST (#297586) #
"We probably won't ever know."

Or...we could just Alex that exact question at Thursday's ticket holder event.

Please see post 297545 above. The answer at its absolute best for the Jays is it will cost $13M more over 4 years than the market rate. That's a minimum premium to bring him north and east, rather than his south and west homeland.
greenfrog - Sunday, February 08 2015 @ 03:49 PM EST (#297587) #
You may be right, Ceebee. On the other hand, Shields might like the idea of throwing to Martin for the next four years and having Stroman/Hutch/Sanchez/Norris as potential rotation mates over that stretch. And the Jays should be competitive for at least the next couple of years. It's a pretty good situation for a veteran pitcher on a four-year deal to be in.

I get the allure of pitching close to home and on the west coast (and in the NL), though. That also makes a lot of sense for someone in Shields' situation.
John Northey - Sunday, February 08 2015 @ 04:04 PM EST (#297588) #
If Shields would sign in San Diego (the leading contender) for 4/$72-75 then the Jays need to offer either a 5th year or 4/$84-87 to get him based on earlier statements.

As many have said is he worth that much to the Jays right now?  Hard to say.  I suspect if the Jays did sign Shields that they'd then turn around and trade someone (Buehrle) for help elsewhere to a team that is willing to take a 1 year risk but not a 4 year risk.

The other challenge is the budget after 2015.  Yes, Buehrle is gone but Martin goes from $7 to $15 mil, Saunders/Cecil/Thole/Valencia/Donaldson/Hutchison/Redmond/Loup all are in arbitration thus significant raises.  Combined that arbitration group should cost more than Buerle being gone saves, and Martin's jump of $8 mil pretty much covers the loss of Izturis/Navarro (free agents).  That leaves the $3.9 mil saved if Estrada goes elsewhere.  Of course, then the Jays need to replace those players too.  Figures/arbitration from Cot's Contracts.

Shields would be nice.  If Rogers is willing to spend then he could be worth the $20 mil a year it would cost the Jays.  If a 5th year only adds $5 mil to the cost then it is worth it, but boy is there a lot of risk there even at 4 years.
greenfrog - Sunday, February 08 2015 @ 04:22 PM EST (#297589) #
KC also took a big risk in trading Wil Myers for Shields and Davis. Sometimes you need to go a bit beyond your comfort zone to assemble the team you need to put you over the top.

The nice thing about acquiring Shields is that the Jays wouldn't be giving up a first-round pick or any prospects to acquire him, and that four years seems to be the length of contract required (unless, as John points out, a five-year term would be the price of bringing him to Toronto). Shields's FIP the last four years has been 3.42, 3.47, 3.47, 3.59 (fWAR 4.5, 3.9, 4.5, 3.7). There is significant risk there - I get why many teams, including the Jays, are going to stay away - but he has been managed to stay pretty consistently good. Some team may well get two good years from him and two mediocre ones. Would that be a good move for the Blue Jays? It's debatable.
greenfrog - Sunday, February 08 2015 @ 04:28 PM EST (#297590) #
Probably a better move (with much lower financial risk) would have been to find a way to acquire Zobrist, but that ship has sailed.
Mike Green - Sunday, February 08 2015 @ 05:32 PM EST (#297591) #
Shields at 4/72 or 5/90 would be a significant overpay, even bearing in mind the free agent market.  Given the vagaries of aging and injury, he can be expected to add 2 WAR/season over the next 3-4 and less in the 5th year.  No thanks at that price.
uglyone - Sunday, February 08 2015 @ 07:23 PM EST (#297592) #
disagree there. shields has been top 20 in war almost every single year in the league, averaging around 44war per year 33 isn't that old - only 2yrs older than a guy like lester (and shields has been better than lester in most seasons, too). he'll probably average around 3war per year

that being said, we're not getting him.
uglyone - Sunday, February 08 2015 @ 07:24 PM EST (#297593) #
averaging around 4war per year, not 44war.

sorry.
uglyone - Sunday, February 08 2015 @ 07:27 PM EST (#297594) #
man that was badly written. lemme try again:

"disagree there. shields has been top 20 in war almost every single year in the league, averaging around 4war per year. 33 isn't that old - only 2yrs older than a guy like lester (and shields has been better than lester in most seasons, too). imo he'll probably average around 3war per year over a 4yr deal.

that being said, we're not getting him."
greenfrog - Sunday, February 08 2015 @ 07:54 PM EST (#297595) #
he can be expected to add 2 WAR/season over the next 3-4 and less in the 5th year. No thanks at that price

First, this assumes that a five-year deal would be necessary to land Shields. This is obviously speculative. The consensus seems to be that he will sign for four years.

Second, his fWAR total over the last four years has been 4.5, 3.9, 4.5, 3.7. Unless you're expecting a precipitous dropoff over the next year or two, a reasonable progression over the next four years might look something like 3.4, 3.0, 2.6, 2.2. Sure, who wants to pay $20m+ per year for a 2.6 or 2.2 WAR starter in 2017 and 2018? But making the playoffs in 2015 and 2016? That's worth a lot, especially for a team that has been in the proverbial desert for 21 years. There's no prize for exhibiting good, solid risk management that results in 83 or 85 wins.
ISLAND BOY - Sunday, February 08 2015 @ 08:41 PM EST (#297596) #
Just wondering ... if Sanchez and/or Norris pitch from the bullpen this year, and then are shifted to the starting rotation for 2016, how many innings would they be allowed to pitch as starters ? I am assuming their arms couldn't go from 40-60 innings to a full season's workload in one year.
JohnL - Sunday, February 08 2015 @ 09:21 PM EST (#297597) #
If the Jays are looking to get some World Series rings this year, they can buy 4 from Gene Tenace.

http://www.sportscollectorsdigest.com/news/auction-news/gene-tenace-collection-coming-courtesy-of-scp-auctions

(Sorry, still a bit of a pain to make a URL into a clickable link, so it's copy & paste).

Mike Green - Sunday, February 08 2015 @ 09:52 PM EST (#297598) #
Second, his fWAR total over the last four years has been 4.5, 3.9, 4.5, 3.7. Unless you're expecting a precipitous dropoff over the next year or two, a reasonable progression over the next four years might look something like 3.4, 3.0, 2.6, 2.2. Sure, who wants to pay $20m+ per year for a 2.6 or 2.2 WAR starter in 2017 and 2018? But making the playoffs in 2015 and 2016? That's worth a lot, especially for a team that has been in the proverbial desert for 21 years. There's no prize for exhibiting good, solid risk management that results in 83 or 85 wins.

I ran a Play Index seeking good comps for Shields (i.e 900+IP from age 29 to 32 with good but not great effectiveness).  I ended up with a good list of names- roughly 1/3 were total flameouts within a year and a half or less mostly due to injury, roughly 1/3 had the slow fade you describe and roughly 1/3 held their value.  Objectively, the average value is about 2 WAR/season.  Subjectively (for me at least), the value is less than that.  I cannot see Shields holding his value. His K rate is falling, he is using more cutters, and I see the reasonable possiblities as the slow fade and the burnout.  Even if it's 2/3 slow fade and 1/3 burnout, the value is even less than 2 WAR/season. 
Richard S.S. - Sunday, February 08 2015 @ 11:20 PM EST (#297599) #
I work extremely long hours some weekends so I'm late to respond. At this time of year people on this site are getting a wee bit short with other posters, so we must put up with the annoyance. And then comes this idiocy from:
------------------------------------------------------------
Shaker - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 04:50 PM EST (#297560)
3 assertions in your first 24 words...are any of them accurate?

Assertion 1: Three Catchers on our roster. Do you know this? When did Gibby and Alex tell you this and why do they keep it private?
Assertion 2: Dioner Navarro is a good trade asset. How do you know this? No other GM has made a play to acquire him and his contract.
Assertion 3: You state we will have 3 Catchers, THEREFORE the bullpen will be just 6 pitchers. Absolutely false on many levels. How did you draw this conclusion? Again why did Alex and Gibby only tell you the exact makeup of the roster prior to Spring Training?

Richard, please stop making blanket statements that are non-factual.

Thanks, have a great weekend.
------------------------------------------------------------
And then this nice person answers (Thank You):
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John Northey - Friday, February 06 2015 @ 05:07 PM EST (#297562)

Right now we have to assume 3 catchers as after seeing JPA and Navarro try to catch Dickey I think it is safe to say Martin, while a better catcher, will also have troubles thus Thole will be on the roster. Until Navarro is traded that means 3 catchers.

Navarro was a solid hitter for a catcher, heck around league average so a decent hitter period. At $5 mil he is a solid guy to have. To assume no other GM has 'made a play' is a heck of an assumption. Odds are others have asked but AA has asked for more than just salary relief or a player - he wants both and might figure waiting it out will work out.

As to the bullpen, I figure 7 guys will be the pen almost no matter what. April has just 2 off days so a full pen will be needed. The staff has 2 guys who are horses (Dickey, Buehrle), 2 kids (Hutchison, Stroman) who haven't had 200 innings in a season yet, and likely another kid for the final slot who will probably get 150-170 innings this year (Sanchez or Norris). That means most of the time the pen will be pushed 2 or 3 deep thus a need for 7 relievers or expect some burnout quickly. I wouldn't be shocked by an 8 man pen in April at times.

Remember though - we are all just speculating. No one here (to my knowledge) is a member of the Jays front office or a player on the team (although parents/family members of players have been members before, in secret). So just assume that all of us are just saying our POV's - no need to attack.
------------------------------------------------------------

I think Russell Martin is presently an elite Catcher, one of the best at his position in Baseball. As good as he is, there is no way he learns to catch Dickey`s Knuckleball as well as Thole.

Josh Thole has basically been R.A. Dickey's personal Catcher since 2010 and even he has trouble occasionally. I think he's out of options, but I'm not sure. When he hit full time with NY he was good. No one hitting as infrequently as he is will be much good.

Dioner Navarro doesn't block balls well or frame pitches at all (or noticeably at all). Everything else you need your number one Catcher to do, he does well. That makes him an asset. If you listen to Podcasts it's hard to miss anything A.A. says, but I do recall A.A, saying he wasn't giving Dioner away. He's not trading him unless the return makes the Team better. (I thought that was a bit extreme).

That means it's very likely our 4-man Bench is occupied by two Catchers who don't play other positions. We need Backup outfield, Backup for 1B and 3B and Backup for SS and 2B. Unless we go with a 6-man Bullpen, we can't carry what need on the Bench.

Shame, just not thinking it through.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, February 08 2015 @ 11:30 PM EST (#297600) #
The only reason to carry 7 or 8 relievers is you don't think your Starting Pitching is good enough. And they don't want Shields. Over 20 years without even a sniff of the Postseason and the Jays won't:
1) Sign anyone for more than five years.
2) Sign/acquire any Starter for $20.0 MM or more per year.
3) Sign/acquire any Reliever for $10.0 MM or more.
4) Sign any Reliever to a multi-year contract.
I don't know if there's more, but it might be another twenty for this group, with these restrictions.
dan gordon - Sunday, February 08 2015 @ 11:35 PM EST (#297601) #
I don't know what Shields is worth, but I did notice something interesting today that I hadn't seen before. His home park the last 2 seasons, K.C.'s Kauffman Stadium, is a pretty strong hitters' park. Per BR, the park scores at 105 for hitters, 104 for pitchers (100 being neutral) over the long term. I had a look at Shields' splits for just the last 2 years, to try to take away that disadvantage he was facing. Adding his road games for the last 2 seasons, you get this: record of 20-5, ERA 2.52, 246 IP, 216 hits and 62 walks for a WHIP of 1.13, and 210 strikeouts. Those are some very strong numbers. If that is a true reflection of who he is at this point, he could be a bargain, depending on how much of that ability he retains, and how quickly it fades.
dalimon5 - Monday, February 09 2015 @ 01:34 AM EST (#297602) #
Richard,

While Shaker was a little aggressive, I second his opinion that you write with a false sense of authority like Wilner... Stating things as if they are fact when they're simply your opinion.

greenfrog - Monday, February 09 2015 @ 07:37 AM EST (#297603) #
Mike, I agree to some extent with your subjective appraisal of Shields. I too have concerns about the loss of velocity and the increased use of cutters. I thought he looked more hittable late last year than he had previously. No question there is risk there. Still, he has a great track record and is a fierce competitor. It wouldn't surprise me to see at least one or two more strong seasons from him.

It's not the worst thing for Anthopoulos to play the waiting game, however. He has a decent team with a very good core. It might be more prudent for him to look for better value in a complementary deal this spring or at the deadline. Perhaps a couple of young players will emerge on the farm, giving him the pieces he needs to upgrade at the deadline (although I find off-season trades seem to be easier to pull off, as there are now so many buyers in July).
Mike Green - Monday, February 09 2015 @ 08:46 AM EST (#297604) #
The February 9 birthday team is a lot of fun:

C- Dioner Navarro
1B- Pete O'Brien
2B- Charley Bassett
SS- Clete Boyer
3B- Heinie Zimmerman
RF- Vladimir Guerrero
CF- Mookie Wilson
LF- Vic Wertz
DH- John Kruk

Bench- Akinori Iwamura (3B/2B), Todd Pratt (C), Buzz Boyle (OF), Specs Toporcer (SS/2B/3B)  (Kruk also backs up first base and is an emergency OF!)

SP- Tex Hughson
SP- Jim Nash
SP- Roy Mahaffey
SP- Eddie Solomon
SP- Randall Delgado

RP- John Urrea
RP- Erv Palica
RP- Ramon Garcia
RP- Pat Underwood
RP- Freddy Schmidt

The infield has many possibilities.  Toporcer and Iwamura were both fine players. I can imagine that against LHPs, you'd have Zimmerman at first base (just as happened with Zimmerman's modern namesake), Boyer at third base, Toporcer at shortstop and Iwamura at second base. 

Mike Green - Monday, February 09 2015 @ 10:21 AM EST (#297605) #
Incidentally, for his career, Shields has done much better at home than on the road.  He has a career ERA of 4.00 on the road. I wouldn't put too much stock in his home/road splits over the last two years (or over his career).  He has been a good and durable pitcher who has had some excellent defence behind him both in Tampa and in Kansas City. 
John Northey - Monday, February 09 2015 @ 11:12 AM EST (#297606) #
Shields appears to have signed with San Diego according to MLB Trade Rumors via Jon Heyman.  $75 mil over 4 years to play in the area he really wanted to be (west coast).  So for the Jays, based on what AA suggested, it would've cost a 5th year or 4/$87 mil to sign him.  At that point I'd say AA did the right thing stepping away, as nice as it would've been to get him as that is just too much risk.  Seems year 5 is a club option.

Steamer projections have Shields as a 3.0 fWAR pitcher in 2015 (201 IP, 3.63 ERA).  The same system has the Jays rotation as Buehrle (1.5), Stroman (3.3), Hutchison (1.9), Dickey (1.5), Sanchez (-0.3 in 20 starts), with 8 starts each for Norris (0.2) and Hendriks (0.2).  Ouch - Steamer doesn't like Sanchez does it?  So that suggests Shields getting 32 starts here instead of Sanchez & Hendriks & Norris (1/2 the starts for one of Hendriks or Norris) works out to 3 wins.  For the Jays to have gotten him we'd be looking at just over $20 mil for those 3 wins, or over $6 mil per win.  That is assuming Sanchez is a sub-replacement level pitcher (doubt anyone really expects that) while Norris is barely above that.  I think we'd all agree that Hendriks is pretty much a replacement level guy. 

Guess we'll see.  Realistically though I wonder if anything short of a 5 year guarantee at $20+ per year would've gotten Shields here given he wanted to be on the west coast.
bpoz - Monday, February 09 2015 @ 11:12 AM EST (#297607) #
I do not think we have enough catching depth, especially if Navarro is traded. How good/ready is AJ Jimenez?
85bluejay - Monday, February 09 2015 @ 11:19 AM EST (#297608) #
The Shields chatter was interesting but I didn't think there was any chance of the Jays signing him - I just don't see Ed Rogers giving a significant payroll boost until a new President is in charge & the Jays have already burrowed from future payroll with the back-loaded Russell deal - Besides, with Bautista & EE needing to be paid in 2 yrs. & if Saunders/Smoak breakout, they are also 2 yrs. from FA - the Jays have to be thinking of a young, cheap rotation - Hutch/Stroman/Sanchez/Norris/Huffman/Osuna etc.

I hope the Jays put in a claim for Ismael Guillon & if necessary make a trade similar to the Aquino deal - Guillon has a nice upside and has options.
dan gordon - Monday, February 09 2015 @ 01:40 PM EST (#297609) #
Apparently, the Tigers are looking at Navarro, maybe Arizona, too. Jays are said to be unwilling to trade him unless they get a pitcher in return. Saw that on Rotoworld, from Jeff Blair.

Shields' home/road splits are amazing. Just went through his splits when he was with Tampa. Playing half his games in a pitchers' haven, he had huge splits every year, with an ERA typically a run or two higher on the road. He seems to be more park dependent than the vast majority of pitchers. I've never seen an established pitcher who had such a consistent, and large, home road split that perfectly fit with his home park, whether it was a pitchers' or hitters' park. Now with San Diego he's back in a great pitchers' environment. I'm moving him way up in my lists for roto pools. I think he's very likely to have an outstanding year in terms of ERA and WHIP.
eudaimon - Monday, February 09 2015 @ 01:40 PM EST (#297610) #
I'm glad Shields has signed as we won't have to hear about him anymore. It's extremely doubtful that the money was ever there to sign him, even if AA wanted to. Reports seem to be that we have 6 million to spend, which may be best saved for mid-season.

The team has enough potential to make me excited for the next season. I'd like one more reliable reliever, which I hope he can acquire one way or the other. Even with that, I think the bullpen has some promise, though it's definitely the biggest question mark on the team.

Shaker - Monday, February 09 2015 @ 03:53 PM EST (#297612) #
Speaking of bullpen question marks, I noticed today that Rafael Soriano's closest comp (by age) over the last 3 years was none other than Tom Henke!

Not that there's any direct connection, but as you probably remember Henke went on to have 3 good years (in Tex and StL) in his age 35-37 seasons.

AA mentioned at the Dome on Thursday (after the stage show) that he was quite concerned with Soriano's second half, so he's not really on our radar; but if you look at his month by month splits over the last couple of years they are really variable.  In 2013 he had a great first 3 months then was awful in July and August before recovering nicely in Sept.  In 2014 he was otherworldly in the first 3 months (OPS <.500) and very bad in the last 3 months (OPS >.800).  Each month is, of course, a very small sample.  It would be easy to conclude that given his second half failures in 2014 he was done, but if you look at his 2013 struggles in July and August you would have never predicted his "insane" finish to '13 and start to '14...

Has he got it in him again?

In the end for both years his stat lines are not too far off his exceptional career numbers.
Here are his stat lines (in order) for 2013, 2014 and career.
K:BB 3.0, 3.1, 3.3
K/9 6.9, 8.6, 9.1
WHIP 1.2, 1.1, 1.1
ERA 3.11, 3.19, 2.85
FIP 3.65, 3.08, 3.31

Not too sure what I'd risk on him in terms of contract, but no doubt his awful second half will suppress his market.
Is $5.75M for 1 year too rich?  Too little?

An interesting little challenge trade with Janssen going to the Nats.


pooks137 - Monday, February 09 2015 @ 04:34 PM EST (#297613) #
How good/ready is AJ Jimenez?

I think Jimenez is probably Robinson Diaz with better defense and less contact ability.

Jimenez was added to the 40-man in Nov 2012, meaning this is his last option year. He's been in the org a long time and you either need to call him up or cut bait soon.

John Northey - Monday, February 09 2015 @ 05:56 PM EST (#297614) #
Well, right now we have 3 ML catchers in Martin, Thole, and Navarro.  Then comes AJ Jimenez and 3 NRI's - Derrick Chung, Jack Murphy, and Sean Ochinko.  Ochinko was in AA/AAA last year but only played 24 games.  in 2012 Ochinko was a prospect with a 755 OPS between A+/AA but now is entering his age 27 season with a 767 OPS lifetime but sub 700 the last 2 years (injury filled I suspect).  Murphy also is entering his age 27 season and has just 14 AAA games on his resume with a 709 lifetime minor league OPS.  Chung is, you guessed it, entering his age 27 season and has yet to reach AAA (47 games in AA) with a lifetime 696 OPS in the minors.  Not exactly 'wow' guys.  Among catchers, only Navarro played 100 games in the Jays system (including games at other positions).  Ick.  Might be a good idea for AA to stock up on a few more vet backups to fill slots just in case.   Jimenez has to be the top backup post-Martin/Thole if you assume Navarro is going away at some point.
Mike D - Tuesday, February 10 2015 @ 02:10 AM EST (#297615) #
I have been worried about the bullpen all offseason. So I thought I'd tally the aggregate 2014 WAR for each team's top five projected relievers for 2015.

1. Royals (Holland/Davis/Herrera/Collins/Frasor): 9.9
2. Indians (Allen/Shaw/Atchison/Rzepczynski/Crockett): 7.1
3. White Sox (Robertson/Petricka/Duke/Webb/Putnam): 7.0
4. Angels (Street/Smith/Morin/Salas/Pestano): 6.6
5. Orioles (Britton/Hunter/Matusz/O'Day/Wright): 6.2
6. Giants (Casilla/Lopez/Affeldt/Romo/Machi): 5.7
T7. Yankees (Betances/Miller/Carpenter/Wilson/Shreve): 5.6
T7. Pirates (Melancon/Watson/Hughes/Bastardo/Pimentel): 5.6
9. Phillies (Papelbon/Giles/Diekman/De Fratus/Hollands): 5.5
10. Rays (McGee/Balfour/Boxberger/Jepsen/Yates): 5.4
T11. Astros (Qualls/Gregerson/Neshek/Fields/Sipp): 5.2
T11. Athletics (Doolittle/Clippard/O'Flaherty/Cook/Abad): 5.2
T11. Blue Jays (Cecil/Sanchez/Loup/Estrada/Redmond): 5.2
14. Mariners (Rodney/Farquhar/Medina/Furbush/Wilhelmsen): 4.9
15. Marlins (Cishek/Dunn/Ramos/Morris/Crow): 4.7
16. Cubs (Rondon/Motte/Strop/Ramirez/Parker): 4.3
17. Red Sox (Uehara/Mujica/Tazawa/Varvaro/Layne): 4.1
T18. Nationals (Storen/Stammen/Janssen/Blevins/Thornton): 3.8
T18. Padres (Benoit/Quackenbush/Torres/Vincent/Thayer): 3.8
20. Twins (Perkins/Duensing/Pressly/Fien/Thielbar): 3.7
21. Rangers (Feliz/Scheppers/Tolleson/Mendez/Klein): 3.3
T22. Dodgers (Jansen/League/Peralta/Baez/Howell): 3.2
T22. Brewers (Broxton/Smith/Jeffress/Kintzler/Cotts): 3.2
24. Mets (Mejia/Parnell/Torres/Edgin/Familia): 2.9
25. Tigers (Nathan/Soria/Rondon/Alburquerque/Gorzelanny): 2.8
26. Reds (Chapman/LeCure/Diaz/Parra/Badenhop): 2.7
27. Cardinals (Rosenthal/Freeman/Martinez/Maness/Choate): 2.3
28. Braves (Kimbrel/Grilli/Johnson/Simmons/Russell): 1.6
29. Diamondbacks (Reed/Marshall/Ziegler/Stites/Perez): 0.4
30. Rockies (Hawkins/Logan/Kahnle/Ottavino/Brothers): -0.7

I was really surprised by these rankings. I tallied these figures while fully preparing to go on a rant about how lowly the Jays ranked and how little was done this offseason.

For the Jays, I made Redmond the #5 reliever, because I honestly don't think the Jays are counting on Delabar to be a key factor in the bullpen. I'm also assuming that Norris gets the #5 spot in the rotation; if Sanchez or Estrada start, the total would be weaker (as it would be with Delabar included). The total is also likely inflated by Sanchez's amazing partial season.

But still -- the 'pen stacks up better than I would have thought. Replacing Redmond with K-Rod would move the Jays up to 6.1; with Joba would move the Jays to 5.6; and with Soriano would only move the Jays up to 5.4.

Finally, replacing Redmond with Papelbon (as distasteful, complicated and expensive as that would be) would move the Jays up to 7.4 and, incredibly, 2nd on this list.
Jevant - Tuesday, February 10 2015 @ 08:31 AM EST (#297616) #
Joey is never going to hit 2nd on a regular basis.  He likes hitting 3rd, has made that public, and irrespective of whether or not it is optimal, I can't see them annoying him over something so slight.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, February 10 2015 @ 08:36 AM EST (#297617) #
Derrick Chung (5'9' 185; 02/23/88) was drafted in the 31st round of the 2012 Draft as a 2B Senior signing. I don't know how it happened, but the Jays started him out as a Catcher, and he excelled. He doesn't have much power or speed. He does hit well with a good OBP and seems to control his strikeouts. As much as I've heard suggest he's very effective defensively. Despite his age, being in AA and moving to AAA soon isn't all bad. He might be something good - someone very useful.

Jack Murphy (6'4' 235; 05/06/88) was drafted in the 31st round of the 2009 Draft as a Junior signing. He doesn't do much at all, so I expect he's a Minor League Organization Catcher, I don't think he can be more.

Sean Ochinko (5'11' 205; 10/21/87) was drafted in the 11th round of the 2009 Draft as a Junior signing. Sometime after 2012 he stopped being a good hitter (.264 .304 .435 in 2012). Since then (.231 .311 .344 in 2013; .213 .250 .363 in 2014) he's being just a Minor League Organization Catcher. I just don't know why he's not better as it seems he should be.

A.J. Jimenez (6'0" 225; 05/01/90) was drafted in the 9th round of the 2008 draft as a High School signing. He has little power and no speed with a poor OBP, but he hits well. He seems to have had issues with staying healthy, but that might be passed. He's a good defensive Catcher, but he might not be a Major league catcher, or more than an emergency backup for brief periods. Unfortunately that's all we've got.

This is what is in our higher minors for Catching, not encouraging. Fortunately, Max Pentecost, Matt Morgan, Kevin Garcia (2014); Danny Jansen, Mike Reeves (2013) might mean it will get better in a few years. I can see why Russell Martin was signed and why A.A. wants value for Dioner Navarro. What we have now is it, it's not going to be getting any better, any time soon.
Gerry - Tuesday, February 10 2015 @ 08:58 AM EST (#297618) #
For AJ Jimenez I would think he is a perfectly normal replacement level catcher, meaning he will hit 220 to 240 with some doubles and provide decent defense. There is a question on his arm strength post TJ surgery but hopefully that is getting better all the time.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 10 2015 @ 12:23 PM EST (#297621) #
yeah AJ is exactly serviceable as a replacement catcher, especially since the bounceback in his CS% lart year ptobably means his arm is fine.

Thole/AJ in AAA is very good catching depth, imo, and Pentecost is 22 this year and should be a fast riser, though likely won't be on the mlb radar until at least late next season.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 10 2015 @ 01:24 PM EST (#297623) #
"I was really surprised by these rankings. I tallied these figures while fully preparing to go on a rant about how lowly the Jays ranked and how little was done this offseason."

great post, Mike D.

bullpens really are crapshoots. You think we'd have learned our lesson about craving mediocre "established arms" given how many of these guys have not only wastes of money for us, but outright liabilities that we were then stuck with l.

what i like even more this year is that so far AA hasn't gone halfway. Not only has he built a bullpen with a deep assortment of upsides, but just as importantly has not committed roster spots to any if tgese bordline arms. they can all be sent up or moved down based on performance, and we won't be stuck forcefeeding innings to guys like rogers and jeffress just because they're out of options.

just look at our recent histiry to see just how crazy often its the "established arms" and the guys who were out of options that have ended up tanking our bullpen each year. all that wasted money and forcefed innings to the likes of cordero, Rauch, dotel, francisco, rogers, etc.....while all that unexpected cheap goodness from guys like janssen, cecil, loup, rzep, tallet, redmond, camp, carlson etc. etc. etc.

if we look at the steamer projections on the fangraphs team depth chart pages:

KCR 4.7
NYY 3.7
TBR 3.0
BOS 2.8
ATL 2.7
COL 2.6
CIN 2.5
SEA 2.3
DET 2.1
CHC 2.1
STL 2.0
CHX 2.0
BAL 2.0
TOR 1.9
OAK 1.9
PIT 1.9
FLA 1.9
ARZ 1.8
CLE 1.7
MIN 1.7
WSH 1.6
LAD 1.5
MIL 1.5
HOU 1.5
TEX 1.3
SDP 1.1
PHI 1.1
SFG 1.0
NYM 0.3
LAA 0.2

the fact that we're middle of the pack is fine, but more important is that 90% of mlb bullpens are projected to be worth between 1 and 3 war - that's the definition of a crapshoot.

and in fact the Jays have a key advantage over most those other pens - flexibility. the jays don't have to forcefeed innings to guys that aren't getting the job done. most everyone can be sent down and called up at will.

a guy like Soriano is pretty much a complete waste, imo. not only is he not s safe bet to be significantly above replacement value or to not blow up, but we'd be stuck with giving him innings even if he struggles. and a guy like papelbon is almost certainly a complete waste of cash.

I am more than fine with our bullpen as is. we're approaching near 20 interesting arns competing for spots, and most of them with options.

Mike Green - Tuesday, February 10 2015 @ 02:55 PM EST (#297624) #
The key thing is to give Cecil and Sanchez as many very high leverage innings as possible. Tie game in the 7th is a great time for Sanchez for two innings with Cecil to follow in the ninth.  If Gibbons does a variation of that 40 times this season, I'll bet that he gets 25-26 wins out of it (with this lineup). 
John Northey - Tuesday, February 10 2015 @ 03:31 PM EST (#297625) #
An advantage of an 'established closer' is it prevents Gibbons from putting Cecil or someone else into that slot who is useful in the real clutch situations.  Closers are used a lot in the 2-3 run lead 1 inning to go situations in order to up their save totals, but real pressure is a 1 run lead or runners on situations. 

For example, last year Janssen saw aLI games of 1.5 or more (high leverage) 17 times, while getting saves in sub 1 leverage (ie: below average pressure situations where any reliever would do) 13 times. 
Cecil had 28 games of 1.5 or more leverage 28 times, with 3 of his 5 saves coming in those sub 1 situations (plus 4 of his holds as well).
Heck, Sanchez had 9 1.5's with a win and 2 saves gotten in the lower leverage situations.

Bottom line is a closer will see high pressure but nowhere near as often as the setup guys.  If Soriano can be signed at a reasonable price (sub $5 mil) I'd say why not?  Same with Paplebon if Philly will pay most of his salary (and I do mean most - all but $2-5 ml).
greenfrog - Tuesday, February 10 2015 @ 07:41 PM EST (#297631) #
Fangraphs' 2015 Steamer projections for the 2015 AL East:

BOS 88-74
TOR 84-78
TB 83-79
NYY 83-79
BAL 79-83

I guess the glass half full view is that the Jays are projected to be relevant this year. The glass half empty view is that with two or three additional moves to complement their strong core, they could have been at the top of this list. We'll see how it all plays out.
Mike Green - Tuesday, February 10 2015 @ 08:01 PM EST (#297632) #
FWIW, I had the Fangraphs/Steamer projections as exactly right last year (prior to the season).  This year, I think that they are 5 wins low for 3 reasons:
  • completely laughable rating of Pompey's defence in centerfield (fangraphs has it at -3.6 runs; it's off by 10 runs, or 1 win, at least). 
  • unjustified assumption that the club would give most of the second base time to replacement level players rather than a 2 win player (Travis)
  • failure to account for the Martin pitch-framing advantage for the pitchers.

Steamer has the Jays giving up 4.35 runs/game (as compared with 4.23 runs/game last year), despite the defensive/pitch-framing improvements with Donaldson, Martin and Pompey.  I think that they are off about 1/2 a run per game, which is a huge amount.  That is (in my view) the 50% projection; if the Jays get lucky this year, I think that they will (censored) from the division. The wild cards as usual are health, development of young players and plain luck.  I have more confidence in this group of young players (Stroman, Hutchison, Sanchez, Norris, Pompey, Pillar and Travis) than usual; I am particularly delighted that Martin is around to guide the young pitchers.  For that reason, I'll probably choose a number a little higher than the 50% projection when it comes time to pick a win figure.


SK in NJ - Tuesday, February 10 2015 @ 09:38 PM EST (#297634) #
The pen should be fine with Cecil, Sanchez, and Loup as the front three. If Redmond remains in the mop up role, then that leaves three spots for some combination of Delabar, Lopez, Jenkins, Drabek, Guilmet, West, Tepera, Rasmussen, Schultz, Infante, Perez, etc. I'm not as down on the pen as others. AA made some good minor league deals and waiver claims. Someone is bound to surprise.

As mentioned, the front three needs to be used a lot in close games (Cecil/Sanchez/Loup). Maybe the Royals pen usage of last season will be more popular next season by many teams. Just stack the three top arms in the late innings, and use the other relievers in lower leverage spots.
Mike D - Tuesday, February 10 2015 @ 09:55 PM EST (#297635) #
Those Steamer bullpen predictions don't ring true to me. Neither 2014 WAR nor common sense would have the Angels pen as the league's worst with Huston Street, Joe Smith and Vinnie Pestano. I also find the relatively high ranking of the Rockies bullpen odd.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, February 11 2015 @ 03:35 AM EST (#297639) #
I don't understand Projection stuff.
If someone better than J.A. Happ is our 5th Starter, then our Rotation is much better. The team has better defense at 1B, 3B (healthier), C, LF, CF and with more rest, SS. Just cutting down on strikeouts and adding more power means better offense. The Bullpen should be better, as A.A. said so.
What I do understand is a lot of this team has been improved, and all the Projection stuff has this team barely 1 game better that last year. That's utter nonsense.
greenfrog - Wednesday, February 11 2015 @ 04:32 AM EST (#297640) #
Over the last few years (since the new playoff format was introduced), the teams that have garnered the two WC berths have had the following win totals: 93, 93, 92, 92, 89, 88. The divisional winners have had the following win totals: 95, 88, 94, 97, 93, 96, 96, 90, 98.

So that's the territory the Jays need to be aiming for. I agree that the Jays have a decent roster and some promising young players who are now well placed to succeed. They should also receive a nice defensive boost from Donaldson/Martin/Pompey and perhaps also Saunders/Pillar/Smoak to some extent. But making the playoffs in the AL is competitive, and the division still has some good teams (including a couple that won't be shy about making additions in the summer). So the Jays shouldn't get too complacent about their depth/inexperience/injury risk issues.
greenfrog - Wednesday, February 11 2015 @ 04:51 AM EST (#297641) #
Here are some scouts' views on Travis. Personally, I want to see him play before I hand him the starting 2B job, let alone pencil him in for 2 WAR.

http://andrewstoeten.com/2014/11/14/more-trade-reaction-devo-is-divisive/
scottt - Wednesday, February 11 2015 @ 06:57 AM EST (#297642) #
I think it's a clear case of results vs "how good he looks on the field".  There's lot of toolsy players that never put it together and players that succeed despite looking less than perfect are not unheard of.
greenfrog - Wednesday, February 11 2015 @ 07:08 AM EST (#297643) #
That's the hope. We'll know more in six or eight months.
Mike Green - Wednesday, February 11 2015 @ 09:04 AM EST (#297644) #
Greenfrog, the 2 WAR figure for Travis comes from Steamer.  My point was that if you project him to be an average player (in 2015), why would you project that the club is going to stick with a replacement level player.

I've watched quite a bit of video for him, and I think that the Steamer projection for him is about right.  I like second basemen who don't strike out, have significant power the other way and who will take a walk.  The Altuve comparisons are ridiculous.  He fits somewhere in the Ronnie Belliard/Howie Kendrick/Bill Madlock spectrum. 

Mike Green - Wednesday, February 11 2015 @ 10:22 AM EST (#297647) #
Neil Weinberg has a fine look at Matt Carpenter's low swing rate outside the zone (complete with video of all of his less than 2 strike chases).  The upshot is that he got truly beat only once all season, by Brett Cecil.  If you see the scoreboard, you'll see that the score was 5-0 St. Louis in the ninth inning on June 8.  What was Cecil doing in the game at that point? He had pitched on June 4 and 6, so he didn't need the work. 

In that game, Drew Hutchison was beaten around for all 5 runs in 3 innings, and then Todd Redmond came on and threw goose eggs for 5 innings and 63 pitches after throwing an inning the day before.  It is easy to understand why Redmond was pulled but not so easy to understand why the choice was Cecil. 

Cecil's following outings were June 10 (down 4 runs in the ninth) and June 11 (down 5 runs in the ninth).  Gibbons will hopefully use Cecil more judiciously in 2015. 
greenfrog - Wednesday, February 11 2015 @ 06:58 PM EST (#297653) #
For what it's worth, Dave Cameron's opinion from earlier today on the Jays' 2B situation (and he liked the Gose/Travis trade, which I was OK with as well):

Comment From Bret
Are you fine with the Jays going with the “try to hold it together with a bunch of nothing until Devon Travis is ready” strategy at second base?

12:28
Dave Cameron: Seems like there were better options this winter, but they passed on them all. At this point, not a lot of useful MIs left.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dave-cameron-fangraphs-chat-21115/
greenfrog - Wednesday, February 11 2015 @ 07:47 PM EST (#297654) #
Steamer no doubt likes Travis's minor-league stats (who wouldn't?), but is perhaps at a disadvantage when it comes to assessing how his tools will play in the majors. I hope that he'll be a competent, average-to-above-average second baseman. But I feel ill-equipped at this stage to assess how he'll do in the majors as a rookie (or beyond). Presumably at least some of the scouts and commentators who view Travis as a non-prospect or fringe player have seen him play, too.
Mike Green - Thursday, February 12 2015 @ 11:08 AM EST (#297656) #
electric carrot - Thursday, February 12 2015 @ 02:17 PM EST (#297657) #
Dave Schoenfield at espn shows some love for the jays:

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/55054/ranking-the-teams-12-through-7-2

Parker - Thursday, February 12 2015 @ 04:34 PM EST (#297658) #
I wonder what it'd take to pry Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks. Stewart is probably the dumbest and definitely the most backwards GM in the league, so maybe the Jays could steal Goldie in exchange for some toolsy longshot prospects, somehow.
Mike Green - Thursday, February 12 2015 @ 04:36 PM EST (#297659) #
Dave Cameron is fond of all four of Anthopolous marquee off-season moves. 
greenfrog - Thursday, February 12 2015 @ 06:58 PM EST (#297660) #
I liked the Donaldson, Martin and Saunders acquisitions and was OK with Travis as a good depth move, so I'm pretty much in agreement with Cameron. Last season I was suggesting Martin as a good FA target for the Jays this off-season, so I was happy to see that deal come together.

Despite the fact that he liked those four moves and that he thinks Toronto has a good team, DC has written that the Jays need one or two more arms (he's not as bullish on all of the Jays' young arms as some are, and he thought the Jays should sign Shields). It also seems that despite liking the Travis trade, he thought the second base / infield situation could have used some additional shoring up.
uglyone - Friday, February 13 2015 @ 12:03 PM EST (#297662) #
I think cameron is letting his non-mainstream stance on sanchez and norris cloud his opinion on stroman and hutch.

I generally agree with cameron's skepticism of prospects with command issues like sanchez and norris....but this should make him double down on his appreciation for stro and hutch, for whom command was always an underrated strength.

greenfrog - Friday, February 13 2015 @ 12:15 PM EST (#297663) #
Sanchez and Norris might have been the young starters he was referring to, I'm not sure (he didn't specify).
melondough - Friday, February 13 2015 @ 12:55 PM EST (#297664) #
Donaldson loses arbitration case. Will get $4.3M in 2015. I wonder if this settlement was holding up any deals the Jays were hoping to hold money back for.

Heyman says this equates to big savings for Jays since it does effect future arbitration years (he has 3 left). I believe there were some calculations/estimates made previously but don't recall the numbers. Anyone want to summarize again? Thanks.
Richard S.S. - Friday, February 13 2015 @ 05:25 PM EST (#297668) #
That's simple, the Jays can justify $4.3 MM per year increases or $16.8 MM over four years. If Donaldson's team won, the could justify $5.675 MM per year increases or $22.7 MM over four years. That`s $5.9 MM in savings or approximately 6 pre-arb salaries.
jerjapan - Friday, February 13 2015 @ 07:00 PM EST (#297670) #
Richard, just don't say "that's simple" and your comment would seem so much more friendly.  I assume you'd like to be valued for your insight?  (which I frequently appreciate)

Richard S.S. - Friday, February 13 2015 @ 09:09 PM EST (#297674) #
I don't say it if it isn't simple. The numbers are around and about. This makes it so easy to follow, you don't even have to think.
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