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Now remember the story, we're newly weds hitching a ride to Earth Capital...

Let's hope we have better luck than Kang and Kodos. Matchups!

Tuesday Game One (1:05 ET)
-- R.A. Dickey (2-5, 5.77) versus Jordan Zimmermann (4-2, 3.26)
Tuesday Game Two (7:05 ET) -- Marco Estrada (1-3, 3.89) versus Max Scherzer (6-3, 1.51)
Wednesday (7:05 ET) -- Mark Buehrle (4-2, 4.97) versus To Be Determined Man

Player to Watch

Bryce Harper is really good, folks. I wrote briefly about him in my NL East Preview:

Everyone has been saying that this is the year Bryce is gonna break out. Here are my problems with this: first, the guy is only 22. Checking his Baseball Reference Similarity Scores for that age (because that's the most work I'm willing to put into this), you get a top six of Justin Upton, Ruben Sierra, Andruw Jones, Tony Conigliaro, Mickey Mantle and Miguel Cabrera. Upton didn't really explode until his age 23 season, which is still his best four years later. Sierra also took a jump at age 23, thanks to an improved batting average, while Andruw was already the hitter he was forever going to be at 22. Conigliaro's age 22 season was tragically his last as a star, so lets hope Harper avoids that fate. Mantle was great from the moment he stepped on a diamond but his leap was also at 23, while Miguel Cabrera took a slight step forward at 22 but his real leap into Frank Robinson territory was at age 27. This brings me to my second point: like all of those guys, Harper is already pretty good. In 1300 big league at-bats he's established himself as a well above average hitter. It will be interesting to see if his career takes a direction like Jones (where this is what you get) or like Mantle's where he's just picking at the surface of his talents. But my third point is health: Bryce has a Brett Lawrie thing going on where he keeps missing chunks of seasons because he gets hurt playing the game so damned hard. If that's going to continue, we might never see that full potential realized.


Well folks, Bam Bam Bryce has finally arrived. He's been healthy for most of the season, and as a result he leads the National League in almost everything (runs, home runs, walks, OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+). The big improvement (aside from the ridiculous SLG% of .724) has been a newfound ability to draw walks. He's already drawn more than all of last season in just over half the plate appearances, and whether this is a genuine effort by Harper to be more selective or NL pitchers are just terrified to throw him a strike, this is a major reason why Harper is the best player in baseball right now.

Assorted Nonsense

Since starting 7-13, the Nationals have gone on a nice little 21-9 run, putting them half a game ahead of the Mets atop the NL East. Despite having Babe Ruth the Second in their lineup, the 2015 Nationals are a pretty average offensive team overall. Their starting pitching is their calling card, and the Bluebirds get to face their two best in Zimmermann and Scherzer. Injuries have given Washington some trouble, though. Starters Doug Fister and Stephen Strasburg are both out, as are outfielders Jayson Werth, Nate McLouth, Reed Johnson (how cool would it have been to see him again?) and reliever Craig Stammen. Promising young third baseman Anthony Rendon is also a no go with a knee problem and has yet to play this season. Former Blue Jay Casey Janssen is back however, so we might see him at some point this series.

As we're heading into a National League park for the first time this year, I should mention one of my favourite things in all of baseball is watching pitchers hit, especially AL pitchers (when they're not hurting themselves of course). It just amuses me. Last year Jays pitchers went 2-25, which sounds about right. Both of those hits however belonged to Drew Hutchison, meaning that non-Hutchison pitchers went 0-21. Again, sounds about right. As far as this pitchers in this series go, R.A. Dickey has a very respectable career batting line of .178/.198/.193, with only 35 strikeouts in 233 career plate appearances. Marco Estrada likewise isn't bad with the bat (as far as pitchers go) with a lifetime .143/.190/.176 line. Mark Buehrle, the obelisk of consistency that he is, has been consistently dreadful with a bat in his hands going 8-118 in his big league career, which is dreadful even by these hilariously low standards. Yet Buehrle can claim one thing both R.A. Dickey and Marco Estrada cannot: a big league home run! Yes, that's right. Mark Buehrle has gone yard in the majors. Somebody find video of this. Please, do it now.

You can check out a preview of this series from the other side here: http://districtondeck.com/2015/06/01/washington-nationals-series-preview-nats-vs-blue-jays-61-63/2/

Get er done, boys!

Series Thread -- Mr. Blue Jay Goes To Washington | 199 comments | Create New Account
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Mike Green - Monday, June 01 2015 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#301605) #
Eephus - Monday, June 01 2015 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#301607) #
That, is awesome.
Mike Green - Monday, June 01 2015 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#301608) #
I love the slightly hidden smile on Braden Looper's face as Buehrle circles the bases. 
Jimbag - Monday, June 01 2015 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#301611) #
I've seen better swings that had trees and tires included, and it looks like Looper thought the same. Still, that's one more than I'll ever get!
TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 07:11 AM EDT (#301615) #
Good morning, one and all. Let's sweep this thing.
TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 08:00 AM EDT (#301616) #
Which team is the best in baseball at running the bases? That would be your Toronto Blue Jays. The best player in the AL (3rd in baseball) at said running of the bases? Kevin Pillar.

This comes from a really good article from Blue Jays Plus:

http://www.bluejaysplus.com/one-blue-jays-strength-that-nobody-is-talking-about/

I'll provide one quote re. the team stats:

"Of the 30 major league teams, 16 of them have had a negative impact on their offense because of base running this season according to BRR. Another 13 teams have provided between 0 and 8 runs to their total offensive output from their base running. Only one team has eclipsed the 9 run mark this season. The Toronto Blue Jays are the best base running team in baseball, providing 9.8 runs to the offensive cause via base running."
uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#301617) #
the interesting thing is that anecdotally it seems like there's little luck there. we're not running all the time, but when we do we're stealing bases quite easily, even with guys like EE running. the only guy that seems to be running himself into trouble or close calls out there is reyes, who presumably is the only one with a fulltime green light.

this probably points to some quslity coaching/analysis.
Jevant - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#301618) #
BUT THE COACHING IS THE PROBLEM!! FIRE GIBSON!  REYES SUCKZ!!!
uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#301619) #
Zimmerman and scherzer on the same day.

that's fun. or maybe "fun".
Jevant - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#301620) #
Dickey around the zone and getting a couple of whiffs in the first inning.  Jays managed to make Zimmermann throw 19 pitches.  0-0 after 1.  I'll take it.
Super Bluto - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#301621) #
Which team is the best in baseball at running the bases? That would be your Toronto Blue Jays. You know what they say: Offence wins games. But base running wins championships
uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#301622) #
man would it be huge if bautista could stick in rf when interleague is done.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#301623) #
Italics, capitals and bold off please, bauxites.  My head is hurting.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#301624) #
can dickey get thru the lineup a 3rd time?
uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#301625) #
that was italics off. now bold off.
Eephus - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#301626) #
Bold italics be gone!

Encouraging stuff from Dickey so far. He seems to be doing a better job keeping the knuckler down in the zone, as evident in Harpers ABs so far.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#301627) #
and he lets the pitcher on, just in time for the top of the order's 3rd ups.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#301628) #
and then walks the next guy.

crap.

IBB HARPER PLEASE
uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#301629) #
why pitch to harper with a base open?

ugh.
Hodgie - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#301630) #
For all the hate constantly directed at Gibbons, I can't imagine what the 'Box would look like if Matt Williams were steering the HMCS Toronto. We might find out what WAR is good for....

Oh, and have I mentioned how much I hate when Dickey allows himself to be beat with BP fastballs? Probably the thing I hate most about the knuckleball - if you don't have command you might as well put the ball on a tee.

uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#301631) #
now this is where our hitters start swinging for the fences every pitch
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#301632) #
No quotation marks around hate, Hodgie?  You've got people here who describe him as "gibber" and "gibby", and you've got people like me who say he's below average but a lot better than Jimy Williams, and you've got some people in the middle.  If this is hate, I'd like to see love.  We could have John Gibbons Valentine day on August 14 and send paper hearts floating down from the 500 level after the 5th inning (the Home Hardware crew has had an awfully easy time of it this year, so a little extra work once a year doesn't seem to me to be too much to ask).
Jevant - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#301633) #
6 Ks, 1 BB, 2 ER through 6 innings.  And yet there's going to be a significant portion of the Jays fanbase (not around here) that is going to blame this game on Dickey if the Jays can't muster a win.
Chuck - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#301634) #
and then walks the next guy.

Escobar faked a bunt on the first pitch and it was right in the heart of the strike zone. The ump blew the call dramatically changing the at-bat. Of course, had Dickey managed to get Zimmermann (.105 avg) out, the inning probably would have gone a lot better.

uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#301635) #
is navarro up?
Jevant - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#301636) #
Not until after this game.  He's going to be activated between the games, apparently.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#301637) #
6ip 1.5whip 3.33era 0 clean innings

i hate that this is now what we consider a good outing from our pitchers.
Jevant - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#301638) #
And here I was just about to say "kinda wish that Martin had come in to pinch-hit there, but I guess Gibbons probably trying to spare him from catching 1.3 games today", and then Thole comes through with a single.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#301639) #
oh for the love of god please someone get a single.
Jevant - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#301640) #
I didn't call it "good", but that said, if you could put 6 IP, 2 ER (it's actually only a 3 ERA) on the scoresheet before the game started, you'd take that every single game.

Process wasn't great, but the result of 2 ER through 6 innings should be enough to win most games provides the offence does better than it's doing today.

uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#301641) #
well that's disappointing.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#301642) #
right move to IBB edwin with 2risp.

like we should have done to harper.
Alex Obal - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#301643) #
Last night in San Francisco, the Pirates beat the Giants 4-3. Kang faced Kontos. (And struck out on three pitches.)

The Giants are awesome. Can't recommend their bandwagon enough if you need late-night baseball to wash away the mental image of Gibbons leaning over the dugout rail and waiting for the worst to come.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#301644) #
I wasn't watching the game, but both Gameday and the box indicate that the walk to Encarnacion was not intentional.  Gameday did suggest that they were pitching around him but not ridiculously so.  A couple of the balls were quite close, at least according to Gameday. 

With a 2-0 lead in the seventh and 1 out and runners on second and third, I'd much rather face Encarnacion than put him on intentionally and face Martin and potentially Reyes with the bases loaded. 

vw_fan17 - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#301645) #
After 53 games, we're tied for 25th overall with Boston.

We have some potential for improvement: June/July are EEs best months (career splits) by far. If he can heat up (he's been below norms for quite some time) and Reyes gets going, yes, we can score even more runs. But we already lead the league in runs scored, and it's not even close - something like 30 more than the next team. And we're barely over .500 at home, and horrible on the road. This game felt winnable. Especially if we IBB Harper, I think we get out of the inning with only 1 run given up. Martin hits the ball a little more to one side or another, or in the air, and we get a run. The "woulda, coulda, shoulda" game only has a ring of truth to it for so long, though. At some point, as JD said, "you gotta get 'er done". And we're not.

Sometimes I wonder how much of an impact the Brook Jacoby suspension really had - it does seem like every single (*&@#$ umpire has it in for us this year. 4 inches outside? Sure, I'll call that a strike. But only against the Jays batters. Half of them are shaking their heads in any given game and barking at the ump - and according to pitch trax (RSN broadcasts), this year, they REALLY have a beef compared to other years when I thought they were complaining about borderline pitches - or is pitch trax misaligned so badly this year? And Dickey was not given several strike calls that seemed to be strikes. I wonder if that suspension, and the appeal/fighting it basically sealed our fate for this season?
Magpie - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#301646) #
For all the hate constantly directed at Gibbons

You should have heard what the two guys who preceded him had to deal with. Gibbons is beloved by comparison.

I was thinking at the time about a IBB for Harper - he's as scary as it gets - but I can't complain about it. I dislike the IBB on principle anyway, and if you score zero runs, what can you do?
85bluejay - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#301647) #
It amazes me that into his 8th season of non-accomplishment, John Gibbons continues to sail along with the seeming approval of Management and most of the fanbase, while much more accomplished managers are under siege or have walked the plank - I guess likability and a "Golly Gee" approach can take you a long way.
scottt - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#301649) #
It's probably because of the Maple Leafs, but the fans are very tolerant.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#301650) #
I think I'm on the 'fire Gibby' bandwagon. It's obviously not working with him. How long do you go with something that isn't working? It didn't work in the last go around, and it isn't in this. The team seems to be underperforming it's talent level, and has always been bad in close games.

uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#301651) #
i like gibbons, but i never get attached to coaches.

they don't have much impact on the results either way.

but there's a solid argument that a shakeup is needed, and there's always a chance that could work.

maybe we bring cito back!
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#301652) #
The main problem for the Jays has to do with the roster, not the manager. The team has lost a lot of productivity/flexibility because of injuries (Stroman, Saunders, Reyes, Bautista, Navarro, Travis). Add the non-additions (SP, RP, OF) for depth because of lack of money and the slow starts by Norris and Pompey, and you have a pretty good explanation for the team's record.

Will it get better for the Jays this season, enough to make the playoffs? Maybe, maybe not.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#301653) #
dunno about that.

statistically, the team has performed. they have been one of the best teams in baseball in outscoring their opponents.

they just have simply not been able to win one run games.

this is most probably just luck, but there's a small chance it could also be some poor in game decisons or some intangible psychological thing, either of which might benefit from a change up top.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#301654) #
that's how you respond to a missed call. nice, pillar.

and the double benefit of getting the pitcher's spot over with this inning.

edit: heh. estrada gets a hit anyways.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#301655) #
"statistically, the team has performed. they have been one of the best teams in baseball in outscoring their opponents"

Not disputing this. I'm just saying that if the roster was stronger, they would have a better run differential - and likely would have won a lot more of those close games.
jerjapan - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#301656) #
Agreed Greenfrog - It's frustrating to be just a couple of complementary players away from a few more wins.  obviously james shields or ben zobrist would've been great ads, but lesser names like aoki in san fran or any number of relivers would've been significant. 

does AA not have too much invested in this season to not make a trade to upgrade the roster? 

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#301657) #
Is there a reason why Colabello is playing first base instead of Encarnacion?  Perhaps Edwin is hurting.  Personally, I'd rather have Smoak in there if Encarnacion is unavailable. Scherzer is very tough on right-hand hitters.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#301658) #
holy crap a clutch hit.

go to the bullpen or give estrada another inning?
uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#301659) #
yeah mike EE has a leg issue, and apparently he's been playing thru it for a while.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#301660) #
whoo boy. did not think danny would get that. 2 run triple flashed in my mind.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#301661) #
Stay fizzy, Colabello.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#301662) #
some nice at bats from cola and dqnny there, not trying to do too much.


if the pen blows this one it won't be good for my heart.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#301663) #
man i love that play. double steal of home.
TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#301664) #
Reyes going first to third here was a good example of great baserunning. Wonder how Jerry's handling that one up in the booth.
scottt - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#301665) #
The pen issue is mostly psychological. Many teams have a closer than comes out on a funeral march and the opponents know that the game is most likely out of reach. When the Jays relievers come out they are the ones feeling the pressure.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#301666) #
That was a gorgeous play by Goins.  The dive was impressive enough, but the amount of oomph on the throw from his knees was something else entirely.  Normally, if the play is made on that one, it's bang-bang after a dying quail throw.  Not for Goins. 
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#301667) #
The pen issue is mostly psychological.

Some people refer to this as writer's block.
scottt - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#301668) #
Janssen is not having a great year either.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#301669) #
can't complain much about splitting a doubleheader vs. zim and scherzer. some nice character to bounce back tonight.

can we please finally get on a bit of a roll for once?
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#301670) #
Yeah. I was wondering when someone would bring up the Howarth comments.

To me, Jerry has every right to be critical of the team. He's seen more Blue Jay games that most of us combined, and at a certain point, the losing takes a toll. Pierre Trudeau said "Power corrupts, and so does powerlessness." I think a lot of that element is at work here. The guy is just sick of all the losing, and being that close to the team for so long, I don't blame him for lapsing into reductive-type comments about another Jays squad spinning its wheels.

Yet, he's categorically wrong in his assertions that Jose Reyes is what's wrong with this club. Looking strictly at the facts (read: the numbers) Reyes bat has always compensated for his glove, and provided value to the Jays. There is no tangible evidence whatsoever that this club would be better off with Reyes on the bench, and Ryan Goins at shortstop. Even using this flimsy at best logic, we DID see what this team was when Ryan Goins started, and they've been better with Reyes.

I assume Jerry likes his job, so there's no surprise he scapegoated a player, and didn't include the other culprits (read: injuries, and to a smaller extent, the front office and ownership) that have played a role in the lack of Jays success recently. What's hilarious, though, is that Howarth is constantly extolling the virtues of Derek Jeter's leadership style. If he'd read Joe Torre's book, he would have realized that Jeter's own manager praised Jeter for NEVER scapegoating individual players.

And the point about Reyes's "streetball" nature is absolute balderdash. When the Jays last had there full lineup healthy, and were 6 games up in the division last June, was Howarth on the radio criticizing Reyes's character then? If you're going to criticize his defence, fine. But to imply that his character is flawed? Sorry, you've lost me there.

Maybe Jerry truly thinks he's helping the Jays cause by scapegoating Reyes. But with that sort of platform, you'd hope the voice of the team would try and spread the blame around a bit more.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, June 02 2015 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#301671) #
The Jays need a big hot streak at just the right time. Last season they peaked in May and faltered afterwards. If they can stay around .500 and then go on a 2nd half run, that would be amazing, but of course that would defy the last 20 years of Blue Jays baseball.
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 01:44 AM EDT (#301672) #
"but of course that would defy the last 20 years of Blue Jays baseball."

The Pirates and Royals of the last two seasons have proven that despite a team going 20+ years without a "run" it won't happen until it......does.

And speaking of 20 years...I'm confident that this is the worst version of the AL East in that time span. Shoot, if this is 2004 or 1998, we're pretty much buried. Fire Gibby and AA, trade everyone, blow this thing up.

Man...what a strange, strange, season so far.
Dave Till - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 05:55 AM EDT (#301673) #
A bunch of random thoughts (yay, insomnia).

The AL East this year reminds me of 1989. (Yes, I was a functioning adult then. You youngsters get off my lawn.) The Jays started 12-24 that year, but won the division anyway, since everybody else was kind of mediocre. Some of this is a statistical illusion: AL teams have played most of their games so far against divisional opponents, and the AL East is evenly matched, so you wind up with a lot of close to .500 records.

It's strange that Jerry Howarth is picking this particular time to complain about Jose Reyes. With Devon Travis out, the Jays need Goins to help cover second base. When Travis is back, the solution seems obvious to me: start Reyes at short and Travis at second, and if Reyes's fielding doesn't bounce back, use Goins as a defensive substitute for Reyes in the late innings. If Gibbons is a genuinely good manager, he will be able to get Reyes to buy into this. He's already using Smoak as a defensive substitute for EE, and nobody seems to be complaining.

Goins, by the way, has taken one step forward as a hitter. He's still awful, but he's now at John McDonald's level as a hitter, and McDonald had a really long career. At this point, Goins will find work with somebody if the Jays let him go. (He also is hitting better than Kevin Pillar.)

The Jays' injuries should not be surprising: Reyes, EE, and Bautista are all on the wrong side of 30, and older players get hurt more. Travis, Stroman, and Saunders getting injured are just more of the Jays' endless supply of bad luck, which I attribute to the Baseball Gods not liking artificial turf.

As for Jerry Howarth: perhaps it's just because the team has been losing for years beyond count, but I have been enjoying the Jays' radio broadcasts less than I ever have before. Is it just me, or does Jerry now spend more time expressing opinions than focusing on calling the game? I have the At Bat app for my iPad, and I tuned into the Washington broadcasters for a bit - they were concentrating on bringing the game into the listener's living room rather than telling stories or complaining about their team's personnel decisions. Of course, it's easier to pay attention to the game when your team has Every Single Starting Pitcher In The World, but still.

And did Howarth really complain that Reyes was smiling too much? Baseball is supposed to be fun! I think it was Willie Stargell who said that the man says "play ball", not "work ball".

It could be worse: consider the Boston Red Sox. They have no starting pitching at all, they have the third-highest payroll in baseball, and they are in last place. David Ortiz appears to finally have grown old. And they're stuck with John Farrell as their manager; Gibbons is twice as good a manager as Farrell.

Josh Donaldson, wow. The number of Blue Jays fans who miss Brett Lawrie is now approximately 0.

And, finally: is Chris Colabello even close to for real? Sure, he can't play the outfield, but he now has 103 plate appearances with a batting average of .368. .368!
Super Bluto - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 07:32 AM EDT (#301674) #
Off topic, I know....

But has anyone heard anything interesting about who is coming to the Pan Am games? Doesn't Cuba usually send their best to this tournament? Anyone worth watching there? Is Alex digging a tunnel from their hotel to the RC?
85bluejay - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 07:33 AM EDT (#301675) #
I am of the opinion that if Colabello is raking when Saunders returns, the Jays should dangle EE and see what his value is (in addition to freeing up his money which can be reallocated) & have Colabello/Smoak/Valencia man 1B/DH

In regards to Jerry Howarth - He's very close to John Gibbons, so it may be that he's echoing what Gibbons is thinking.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#301676) #
insomnia

Thank you for your inquiry, sir.  My diagnosis is one-run loss anxiety disorder, a potentially serious condition which can afflict baseball players and fans.  I urge you to reject the simplistic pseudo-Jungian approach of schadenfraude and instead to embrace your inner Winnicott. Your true self wants to see a series of one-run wins, so feed it.  When you are trying to sleep, imagine Josh Donaldson coming up to plate in Exhibition Stadium for the Blue Jays in the bottom of the ninth with two outs in the bottom of the ninth in a scoreless game with threatening clouds above.  Donaldson sends a ball far over the center-field fence, the clouds part (permit yourself to smile at the irony of this happening to the Bringer of Rain) and then "celebrate, come on" and Tom saying the Blue Jays win 1-0.  Then start counting, 2-1, "celebrate", Blue Jays win.  3-2, "celebrate", Blue Jays win.  And so on.

I wish you the best.

Dr. Green

Dave Till - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#301679) #
Thank you, Dr. Green. Rest assured that I shall pay your invoice promptly.

One small quibble: my true self does not want one-run wins, though those serve as an acceptable substitute. My true self wants multi-run wins - 11-2 or 14-3 stompages in which the opponent is thoroughly beaten into dust. (I don't want to think of what this says about me.) The ideal opponent in this dream scenario is the Red Sox, so that we get multiple camera cutaways to their manager standing on the top step of the dugout, wearing that sad and perplexed face that he puts on when things don't go the Sox's way.
92-93 - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#301683) #
"Reyes going first to third here was a good example of great baserunning. Wonder how Jerry's handling that one up in the booth."

The radio broadcast heaped praise on Reyes for that play, pointing out that you don't often see guys go first to 3rd on ground balls hit directly up the middle. The play was followed by a highlight on Sportsnet of another game where a runner got thrown out going first to third on a very similar groundball up the middle (although there was a runner going home as well in that game, emboldening the runner). I think it may have been Siddall's inning, so I'm not sure if Jerry weighed in with the praise or not.

"As for Jerry Howarth: perhaps it's just because the team has been losing for years beyond count, but I have been enjoying the Jays' radio broadcasts less than I ever have before. Is it just me, or does Jerry now spend more time expressing opinions than focusing on calling the game?"

I listen to pretty much every game, and wholeheartedly agree with this assessment. I believe it is very closely related to the choice on his partner, Joe Siddall. I happen to like Siddall and think he would work well with somebody else, but the broadcast has dropped off considerably since Ashby left. That being said, it still sure as heck beats watching/listening to the nonsense that Buck & Tabby spew on a daily basis.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#301685) #
There is no off position on the Siddall mouth switch.
Spifficus - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#301686) #
I agree on Siddall. I think he works well with Wilner for their innings together; he seems more relaxed and less worried about interrupting, which oddly leads to better flow and a more conversational style. With Howarth, he seems more relegated to reading baseball-related fortune cookies.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#301687) #
Was thinking that Colabello seems to have hit a lot of line dives and sure enough, when I checked FG, his 31.6 LD% sits 5th among the 259 players with 110+ PA's.

The 7th player on that list caught my eye, Matt Carpenter, and when I compared Cola's 2015 profile to Carpenters career numbers, they look very similar. The balls they hit have similar speed, and go to similar areas of the field. Cola has popped up his FB's a lot more than Carpenter ever did.

Now that's comparing a month+ of #'s to multiple seasons so obviously zero assurance if any of what Cola is doing is sustainable, but I did find it interesting.
92-93 - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#301689) #
"(Actually, in view of the fact that John Gibbons is the manager, one wonders why the team even bothers with a seven man pen. Unlike his predecessors, Gibbons has never actually used a seven man pen. His teams always carried seven relievers, but his seventh man can go for weeks without pitching, as Jordan de Jong and Scott Copeland will testify.)"

Copied Magpie's comments from an older thread. I was looking at the recent bullpen usage, and not only was that Copeland spot not used for 10 days, but Ryan Tepera has thrown 5 pitches since May 22nd. This seems like a really inefficient way to build a roster - if the manager only trusts 5 relievers, either find new relievers or cut down the bullpen size by a body; don't just ram players he won't use on to the roster.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#301690) #
well, our starters have really turned it around, but one blowup can still screw the pen up in a big way. having an arm to eat innings in blowouts i'd say is as valuable as having a n extra bench guy.

and in interleague we have a 5 man bench now anyways.
christaylor - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#301691) #
The Jays announcers, both TV and radio, have been among the worst in MLB for quite sometime now. I almost always watch/listen to the opposition broadcast now.

The White Sox team was fun -- Chuck Swirsky made a fill in appearance.

Maybe Wilmer is OK but Jays talk has become entirely not worth listening to in the past few years. It shouldn't be hard to fill these jobs with talent which makes me think Rogers isn't even trying.
jerjapan - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#301692) #
yeah, the 8th spot in the pen is strictly insurance, with an eye to keeping the pitchers healthy with extra innings. our injuries are all to hitters, so it's an approach that might be working.
Four Seamer - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#301693) #

our injuries are all to hitters, so it's an approach that might be working.

Or might not be - perhaps an extra bench player, usefully rotated, might help keep the position players healthy by reducing their innings and giving them a day or two off when nursing something minor.

Chuck - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#301694) #
Jays talk has become entirely not worth listening to in the past few years.

This is true, but I think it has much less to do with Wilner than with the chowderheads who phone in.

hypobole - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#301695) #
Except both Bautista and EE were nursing something minor and how much playing time did Smoak get?
uglyone - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#301696) #
Wilner is ridiculous. He has the opinions of a 12yr old fan.
Jevant - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#301697) #
De Aza traded to Red Sox.  And here I thought at the beginning of the year they were the ones short on OF. 

It's less of an issue now that Bautista is back (and Carrera hasn't been quite as terrible as expected), but I still kinda wish that would have been explored.

John Northey - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#301698) #
I'd say it is critical to make use of all 25 men on the roster.  Find a role for each and make use of them.
For hitters Gibbons seems to have roles for each from regulars (Martin, Encarnacion, Donaldson, Reyes, Colabello, Pillar, Bautista) to defense mainly (Goins, Smoak), to platoons (Valencia/Carerra) to fill in (Kawasaki). Navarro is the backup DH/CA.

The pen is a mess though - Cecil is the closer I guess (2 saves, only Castro has saves otherwise), Osuna is his favorite go-to guy, closely followed by Loup, Hendriks has moved up there for multi-inning appearances, Delabar has done well when given a shot but a bit wild.  Copeland & Tepera & Schultz are mop up only.

Tepera has twice had leverage over 0.2 (other 4 were 3+ run spreads) and in those 2 games he allowed 3 runs in 1 1/3 IP. 
Copeland was used with the Jays down 4 and up 7, so anyone could've pitched in those games.
Schultz was 2 innings with the team down 2 so that was a bit of pressure with no runs allowed.

Still those 3 could've  been replaced by a hitter pitching with no real change in results (Jays lost the Schultz game 2-0).

So really this super-deep pen is doing nothing for the team.  What hitting would help?  Adding someone who can play outfield defense to help out late would be nice (Pompey), when Travis returns Kawasaki is back down with no ill effect on the team I'm sure.  Saunders will cost Carrera his job if/when he returns.  Tolleson is a tough one that is the point to cut the pen down. Thole as a 3rd catcher might be nice but not really any more useful than Schultz/Copeland/Tepera are.  Diaz as a pure defensive backup ala Goins is another 'meh' idea I prefer him in AAA ready for injuries.

hypobole - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#301699) #
What super deep pen? It's 7 man - correct me if I'm wrong, but no MLB team goes with a 6 man pen any more.

Keeping Pompey on the roster as a defensive replacement will be detrimental to his development - he needs AB's to work out whatever he's going through.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#301700) #
Jays' AL Bullpen Ranks

3.75era (11th)
3.72fip (5th)
3.63xfip (3rd)
3.19siera (3rd)
0.8war (7th)
uglyone - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#301702) #
De Aza

1yr: 71wrc+, -3.6uzr/150, -1.2war/650
2yr: 90wrc+, +7.0uzr/150, +1.3war/650
3yr: 94wrc+, +2.3uzr/150, +1.8war/650
Car: 98wrc+, +3.3uzr/150, +2.5war/650

i guess there's a chance he could bounce back and be a kinda useful player again but he'd have to bounce back significantly and even then there's not much upside.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#301704) #
yanks just DFAd carpenter. i'd jump on that.
Sano - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#301705) #
Just as a means to stir this conversation up a little, I present this - http://baseballhotcorner.com/wouldve-said-mike-wilner/


Chuck - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#301706) #
His career L/R OPS split is 660/750. It's only his ability versus RHP that's worth considering, so well stocked is the team with lefty-killers. Were he more Lind-like (580/860), then maybe a kick of the tires would have been warranted.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#301707) #
Jays' AL Bullpen Ranks

3.75era (11th)
3.72fip (5th)
3.63xfip (3rd)
3.19siera (3rd)
0.8war (7th)

and WPA -3.63 (15th)...The pitching from the pen in high leverage situations has been uniformly bad (with the exception of Estrada).  Even Osuna has been mediocre in these situations.  Here is the gruesome list. I assign some of the credit for this to Gibbons, but in fairness, it should be said that when some of your relievers have been pitching poorly in all situations and some have been pitching well in low leverage situations and poorly in high leverage situations, it may be understandable that you might get confused about who is actually the better pitcher now. 
Chuck - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#301708) #

Just as a means to stir this conversation up a little, I present this

The author mischaracterized Wilner's remarks, at least based on the recent occasion I heard Wilner discussing Reyes, Jeter and position changes (I am guessing it was the same instance the author is referring to).

Wilner did not argue that Reyes should be the one who decides, like Jeter, if and when it is time for him to move from shortstop. Rather, Wilner argued, as I have many times on this site, that getting an established star player to change positions requires finesse, coddling, a ramp-up period and player buy-in. Yes, would that it were not so, and that team interests always came first. But such is not the case. Getting a star player to change positions is an undertaking. Just look at how the media lauded Michael Young for his position changes, stopping just short of reaching out to the Nobel commitee.

I am no Wilner apologist, nor do I have an axe to grind with the author of the cited piece (I have no idea who he is). But there was some pretty heavyhanded strawmanning going on there.

cybercavalier - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#301709) #
Copying and Pasting from uglyone's comment
yanks just DFAd carpenter. i'd jump on that.

Asking uglyone, do you or anyone know how to contact the Jays to propose a player transaction ?

Chuck - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#301710) #
Asking uglyone, do you or anyone know how to contact the Jays to propose a player transaction ?

plonk@bluejays.com

Sano - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#301712) #
Fair points Chuck, I haven't heard the Wilner bits on position shifts to be able to know if the summary was fair.

On the Gibbons bit, I do find the conversation right now very unfruitful. Someone says "Fire Gibbons", Wilner/Stoeten et al respond "That's stupid, he doesn't actually pitch, hit or field". As the author says, by that logic, no manager would ever get fired. Fact is, Gibbons' teams have been consistently mediocre to below average. Something has to give at some point. I don't care what you call it - "giving the team a new voice" or whatever, fact is that it has worked in the past for other teams (I admit it has also failed previously) and I think we're getting close to needing to try it here.
Alex Obal - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#301713) #
I was looking at the recent bullpen usage, and not only was that Copeland spot not used for 10 days, but Ryan Tepera has thrown 5 pitches since May 22nd. This seems like a really inefficient way to build a roster - if the manager only trusts 5 relievers, either find new relievers or cut down the bullpen size by a body; don't just ram players he won't use on to the roster

The 7th man is insurance. Always having the 7th man available as cannon fodder frees him up to the other 6 as short relievers. That way if he goes to the pen in the 5th, he has the privilege of making as many changes as he wants, knowing that if the game ends up tied in the 11th, he'll still have Copeland instead of Kawasaki. If you got rid of Copeland/Schultz he'd use 5 relievers and have Tepera as the last-ditch emergency guy. If you cut Tepera... 4 and Hendriks.
Alex Obal - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#301714) #
That said I don't have a good reason why he isn't using Tepera. I can certainly think of a few bad reasons!

In happier news, Ezequiel Carrera has quietly worked his way up to .308/.361/.369. Not that anyone cares. He isn't controlling the strike zone quite as well as in AAA, but I bet he'll improve a bit (it's probably tough to reconcile your felt obligation to work the count with opposing pitchers' treating you like an out). If nothing else he can recognize pitches better than Pillar, who's just an unrepentant blind guesser sometimes. And notwithstanding a couple high-profile misplays on balls few RFs would've caught anyway, Carrera strikes me as a capable CF and an overqualified cornerman on a team where 4/5 of the starting pitchers badly need one. He might be better than Saunders. If he gets 300 more PA I'd pencil him in for .270/.340/.370, plus D in left, and 20 steals. Nice pickup, Anthopoulos.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#301715) #
Monthly AL Ranks

Hitters: April --- May

Runs: 122 (1st) -- 146 (2nd)
BB%: 8.9 (6th) --- 8.5 (3rd)
K%: 20.8 (8th) --- 19.3 (8th)
Babip: .284 (9th) - .316 (2nd)
AVG: .248 (5th) -- .274 (1st)
ISO: .172 (4th) -- .178 (3rd)
wRC+: 105 (4th) -- 118 (2nd)

BsR: 3.9 (2nd) --- 4.6 (1st)
Def: 4.0 (4th) --- 0.7 (6th)

WAR: 4.5 (4th) --- 6.8 (1st)

so after an excellent April, the position players had an even better May...across the board. Only the defense took a tumble in may. And imo we've yet to see the offense really click yet.


Starting Pitchers

IP/gs: 5.4 (11th) -- 6.2 (3rd)
K%: 15.3 (13th) ---- 15.3 (13th)
BB%: 9.9 (14th) ---- 7.5 (11th)
K-BB%: 5.4 (15th) -- 7.8 (15th)
Babip: .302 (9th) -- .272 (3rd)
LOB%: 72.1 (12th) -- 69.3 (14th)
ERA: 5.20 (13th) --- 4.75 (15th)
FIP: 5.35 (15th) --- 4.49 (15th)
xFIP: 4.86 (14th) -- 4.34 (13th)
Siera: 4.87 (15th) - 4.48 (14th)
WAR: -0.2 (15th) ---- 1.2 (11th)

Starters were embarassingly incompetent in april, and they managed to improve all the way to just plain bad in May. baby steps.


Bullpen

IP: 76.2 (5th) ---- 72.0 (14th)
K%: 25.4 (3rd) ---- 22.8 (7th)
BB%: 8.7 (8th) ---- 7.7 (5th)
K-BB%: 16.7 (4th) - 15.1 (4th)
Babip: .312 (14th) - .251 (2nd)
LOB%: 71.1 (11th) -- 71.4 (13th)
ERA: 4.11 (12th) --- 3.63 (9th)
FIP: 3.79 (7th) ---- 3.79 (6th)
xFIP: 3.64 (5th) --- 3.65 (5th)
Siera: 3.17 (5th) -- 3.22 (3rd)
WPA: -0.69 (11th) -- -3.03 (15th)
WAR: 0.2 (9th) ------ 0.3 (8th)

the pen has been consistently good for the most part across the 2 months, but they've been consistently unclutch as well.
cybercavalier - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#301716) #
If he gets 300 more PA I'd pencil him in for .270/.340/.370, plus D in left, and 20 steals. Nice pickup, Anthopoulos.

More importantly, why AA's team could pick him up before what performance u mention and speculate happens ? Any farsighted calculation ?
Magpie - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#301717) #
the pen has been consistently good for the most part across the 2 months

They may have been good at some things, but they haven't been particularly good at preventing the other team from scoring. Which is kind of important.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#301718) #
Reyes is just messing with Jerry Howarth now.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#301719) #
"More importantly, why AA's team could pick him up before what performance u mention and speculate happens ? Any farsighted calculation ?"

i was a bit confused as to why the projection systems thought carrera was valuable coming in this year, but they seem to be right.
Jevant - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#301720) #
So, how's everyone feeling tonight?  Wee bit better now, after beating Scherzer last night, and pounding Jordan tonight?
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#301721) #
It shouldn't. We know they can win blowout games, we know they can hit.

I'd like to see the Jays actually break the last decade and a half of futility in close games.

scottt - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#301722) #
Bullpen

IP: 76.2 (5th) ---- 72.0 (14th)

Wait, it was the second less used bullpen in the league?

LOB%: 71.1 (11th) -- 71.4 (13th)

Is that only for inherited runners?

WPA: -0.69 (11th) -- -3.03 (15th)

Very pressure sensitive.

Let me point out that they are 15th in saves with only 6. Oakland has 9. Tampa Bay has 21.

Overall, the Jays are 0.2 wins above replacement value. Hitters are 4.3, starting pitchers -3.3 and the pen is -0.8
uglyone - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#301723) #
oh man buehrle that was awesome.

please put a hot streak together now, boys.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#301724) #
scottt -

1. yup 2nd least used in may
2. lob% for all runners
3. fangraphs has them at 14.2war (11.8 hitters, 1.5 sp, 0.8 rp)
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#301725) #
So in the road trip through Minny and Washington they outscore the opposition 28-18. Pretty impressive. Of course it only resulted in a 3-3 record because that's just how the Jays roll for whatever reason, but still, they played well.
Cracka - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#301726) #
Just your standard 20 ground ball game by Buehrle... from my quick research, that's the most ground balls induced by a pitcher in one game this season across MLB... and we had our four best infield defenders playing tonight as well.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#301727) #
I missed tonight's game, but I see that Buehrle had an 18/2 GO/FO ratio.  He'll win with that the great majority of the time.  If you don't walk people and you get them to hit it on the ground and you are a good fielder and you hold runners exceptionally well, you've got the proverbial bases covered.  It wouldn't shock me at all if (retro stat alert) Buehrle won 20 games this year.  Forgive me for I have sinned by using a pitcher win without quotation marks...

After a doubleheader, it's especially sweet of Buehrle to give the bullpen the night off.

ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#301728) #
And did Howarth really complain that Reyes was smiling too much?

You actually heard Jerry Howarth say this? I'm skeptical.
jerjapan - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#301729) #
I believe he did say that Comedeanbychance ... i read in the transcript that it was about smiling during a losing streak.  forget where the link for that is.

I love Jerry, brings me back to my early fan days, but he's being a dickhead.

TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#301731) #
CDBC, Read Stoeten. He said it.
ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, June 03 2015 @ 11:58 PM EDT (#301733) #
Read Stoeten. He said it.

You could hardly have posted a less convincing response. Now I'm even more skeptical.

Lylemcr - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#301734) #
I can't believe the trade the Mariners made today. I think there is a GM in Seattle that is scared.

They need a catcher that can hit and a little more offense. I wonder if there is an opportunity...
StephenT - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 12:14 AM EDT (#301735) #
I listen to the Jays' radio broadcasts a lot, and I've really enjoyed Joe Siddall's commentary the past couple years.  I find him very knowledgeable when explaining the plays on the field.

Siddall obviously does his homework before the games, sharing a lot of comments from Blue Jays' coaches and players.  One example I remember learning from him last year is that the Jays (maybe like most teams now) have a 40-pitch limit for 1 inning, which is why Stroman was removed in the 1st inning from the game the day before, as he was getting into the upper 30's and they didn't want to take the chance of him getting past 40 in the next at bat.

Siddall works very well with Jerry Howarth, particularly when Jerry reminisces about players from past decades.  Siddall always adds something more.  (Unlike, say, Dirk Hayhurst, who was too young to talk about players from the 1980s, or even the 1990s it seemed.)
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 06:30 AM EDT (#301736) #
Now I'm even more skeptical.

Skepticism... Willful ignorance... It's a fine line, I suppose.
Super Bluto - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 06:58 AM EDT (#301737) #
Siddal's always seemed to me like a low-rent solution. I'd much prefer a guy who had a long major league career - like ashby, like morris - who can tell stories about playing with this hall of famer or that manager. Also, what's with the way he pronounces "TIgers"? It's like "Taygers". A Windsor thing?
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 07:17 AM EDT (#301738) #
Kind of like Taggers. Yeah, I've noticed that too. I used to know a guy from Sarnia who pronounced it the same, so I figure it's a regional thing.
jerjapan - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 07:53 AM EDT (#301739) #
well, here's the quote.

The problem I have, too, sometimes now, is too much fun, too many smiles when he is in decline and making mistakes and hurting his team losing. And when the TV camera catches that, it makes it even worse.

Jevant - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 08:05 AM EDT (#301741) #
You don't have to read Stoeten if you don't want to.  It's all over the place.
Jevant - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 08:06 AM EDT (#301742) #
Except Dirk was awesome. Fair point on the "being younger" side of things, but Dirk was awesome.
scottt - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#301743) #
I can't believe the trade the Mariners made today. I think there is a GM in Seattle that is scared.

They need a catcher that can hit and a little more offense. I wonder if there is an opportunity...


Well the Mariners are -0.3 Wins over replacement at catcher but the Jays ended the year at -0.6 last year with Navarro. I don't really see the upgrade. Arizona is at -0.2.

The teams that could use Navarro probably think they don't need him. Miami is at -1.3 and Tampa Bay is at -1.9.


Jevant - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 08:10 AM EDT (#301744) #
but I have been enjoying the Jays' radio broadcasts less than I ever have before. Is it just me, or does Jerry now spend more time expressing opinions than focusing on calling the game?"

I won't post it here, since he uses rather colourful language, but Drew Fairservice has an excellent on point comment on that very issue, that you should be able to find by poking around Twitter.
85bluejay - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 08:28 AM EDT (#301746) #
I also find Dirk awesome (he's now on tsn)
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#301747) #
Drew Fairservice has an excellent on point comment on that very issue

That one can also be found at the end of the Stoeten post covering the Howarth-Reyes story, so I'll just post the link to the whole kit and kaboodle. The skeptical can avoid it.

http://andrewstoeten.com/2015/06/02/dumbing-down-the-discourse-jerry-howarth-would-like-jose-reyes-to-get-off-his-lawn/
hypobole - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#301748) #
Mike's earlier post regarding the Jays pitching woes in high leverage situations answers a lot of questions as to why the Jays record is so poor despite their great run differential.

The odd thing is, the Jays MLB worst 14.20 ERA in high leverage situations hasn't been due to the long ball; they've only given up 3, and rank 11th best in HR/9.

The 3 main culprits I see are an inability to get the crucial strikeout - 14.5 K% ranks 29th, inability to get a crucial ground ball - 35.8% ranks 29th, and inability to induce soft contact - 15% ranks 28th. This combo is a recipe for diaster.

Looking at the above numbers, the Jays staff has actually been lucky in not giving up more dingers.
uglyone - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#301749) #
Siera - which incorporates all that batted ball data (but not the hit f/x data) would suggest that they've been unlucky.
uglyone - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#301750) #
"Well the Mariners are -0.3 Wins over replacement at catcher but the Jays ended the year at -0.6 last year with Navarro. I don't really see the upgrade. Arizona is at -0.2.

The teams that could use Navarro probably think they don't need him. Miami is at -1.3 and Tampa Bay is at -1.9."

Fangraphs has the jays at 2.0war last year for games played as Catcher (18th), 2.1war total for all nominal catchers (14th), and Navarro was good for 90% of that war.

Plenty of teams could improve themselves with a league average catcher like Dioner.

Of course, it was pretty sweet to see the Dioner-Buehrle battery make more magic again last night.

The Red Sox should be banging down our door for Dioner, really.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#301751) #
SIERA does not break down by leverage.  Hendriks (for example) has been awesome in low and medium leverage situations and not so good in limited high leverage appearances.  Personally, I'd just stick him in there often anyways because they can't run out Osuna too often. Gibbons has been reluctant.

Gibbons has to find a way to use Cecil more effectively.  He's been pitching very well for over a month in the "closer" role but has had very little high leverage work.  In Cecil's two years in the pen, he's been equally effective in high and low leverage situations and he is at least as tough on RHHs now.
Chuck - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#301752) #
He's been pitching very well for over a month in the "closer" role but has had very little high leverage work

The Jays' trend of winning big or losing small speaks to Cecil's use thus far -- not used when trailing, pointless to use when winning by a large margin. Gibbons may need to start using Cecil when the team is down by 1 or tied late in the game. Otherwise, Cecil may not crack 50 innings for the season.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#301754) #
Personally, I'd start with game tied late.  If Cecil hasn't pitched for a couple of days and the game is tied after 7 or even after 6 innings, bring him on.  It's unconventional, I know, but conventional isn't working.  There's no point pretending that the club has a bullpen as good as Kansas City's (and it doesn't need to be that good for the club to succeed).  All they've got to do is win half the close games, and they should be fine. 
uglyone - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#301755) #
there is no arguing that the RP have struggled in the clutch.

the question is whether that is a short term odds issue or a longterm skills issue.

i'd bet on the former. no reason to think they should have such a huge difference in performance depending on leverage. definitely not for the likes of cecil snd loup. i'd also guess that inexperience in that kind of situation for guys like osuna and hendriks hurt them. and gibber should never have used castro in those situations. he never earned that

i also think through circumstance, intentional or not, the rp have been put into very tough spots (i.e. with multiple runners on) unnecessarily often.
uglyone - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#301756) #
as for usage, remember that our SP have been going very deep into games since May started. Just a shade under 7ip/gs since the start of may. not many rp ip to go around.

appearance leaders since may 1:

Osuna 12 (12.2ip)
Hendriks 11 (16.2)
Loup 11 (8.2)
Cecil 9 (9.0)
Delabar 9 (8.2)
Tepera 6 (7.1)
Francis 4 (2.0)
Chuck - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#301757) #
On the topic of Jerry Howarth and Reyes, I hadn't realized what a thing it has become. As I had earlier mentioned, I found myself listening to the game Sunday and happened to catch Howarth's criticism of Reyes. As I almost never listen to the radio broadcasts, the invective caught me by surprise because I thought it was so out of character for Howarth. I was not aware that he's had ongoing issues with Reyes and has, in fact, had issues with other players in the past. This particular Ned Flanders, it would seem, does have the capacity for prickliness. I was not aware.

I am not a fan of either broadcast team, TV or radio, so I guess it's just a matter of which poison suits your mood. I do miss Alan Ashby. Like Rance Mulliniks, he could be a little too stern and a little too humourless, but like Rance, he provided insights that the other men in the booths don't and quite possibly can't.

As for Reyes, the man in Howarth's crosshairs, I think there is a legitimate discussion to be had about his future position. Given his contract -- he's owed $44M in the next two years -- he figures to be staying in Toronto, unless Tony Reagins finds himself in a GM chair sometime soon. Is he a palatable option for shortstop for two more seasons? Ryan Goins is a wonderful defender but, as our new John McDonald, does not bring enough to the table to warrant fulltime play. And there are no other shortstops in the pipeline. Or in the market. So what to do? Just grin and bear it and hope that Reyes can stay healthy enough for 130 games of 100ish OPS+?

Four Seamer - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#301758) #

That one can also be found at the end of the Stoeten post covering the Howarth-Reyes story, so I'll just post the link to the whole kit and kaboodle. The skeptical can avoid it.

http://andrewstoeten.com/2015/06/02/dumbing-down-the-discourse-jerry-howarth-would-like-jose-reyes-to-get-off-his-lawn/

"Dumbing down the discourse" should be the title of every post on that website.

uglyone - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#301759) #
SS is such a wasteland nowadays.

Reyes could literally still make the all star game this year - deservedly.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#301760) #
In the absence of any miraculous trades, Reyes is likely to be here for the duration of his contract.  And that's fine, as long as his defence is at the serviceable level.  He and Goins make a good pair. With luck, Richard Urena will be ready for 2018. The organization is thin at shortstop.  I suppose it is possible that Jorge Flores or Dawel Lugo might surprise us.
Chuck - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#301761) #
SS is such a wasteland nowadays.

Egad.

uglyone - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#301763) #
SS last 3yrs:

1. T.Tulowitzki: 1070pa, 145wrc+, 19.1df, 11.1war, 6.7war/650
2. J.Peralta: 1296pa, 125wrc+, 28.2df, 10.7war, 5.4war/650
3. I.Desmond: 1531pa, 108wrc+, 16.7df, 9.0war, 3.8war/650
4. B.Crawford: 1319pa, 104wrc+, 21.2df, 7.6war, 3.8war/650
5. A.Simmons: 1454pa, 84wrc+, 59.1df, 7.5war, 3.4war/650
6. J.J.Hardy: 1300pa, 91wrc+, 36.6df, 6.6war, 3.3war/650
7. J.Reyes: 1183pa, 104wrc+, 0.7df, 6.0war, 3.3war/650
8. J.Lowrie: 1302pa, 112wrc+, 3.2df, 6.4war, 3.2war/650
9. E.Aybar: 1446pa, 95wrc+, 15.1df, 6.5war, 2.9war/650
10. J.Rollins: 1489pa, 91wrc+, 14.1df, 5.6war, 2.5war/650

SS last 2yrs:

1. T.Tulowitzki: 558pa, 148wrc+, 7.2df, 5.8war, 6.8war/650
2. J.Peralta: 848pa, 126wrc+, 19.9df, 6.9war, 5.3war/650
3. B.Crawford: 769pa, 113wrc+, 11.2df, 5.4war, 4.6war/650
4. E.Aybar: 857pa, 98wrc+, 15.5df, 5.0war, 3.8war/650
5. A.Escobar: 806pa, 93wrc+, 13.5df, 4.3war, 3.5war/650
6. J.Reyes: 764pa, 99wrc+, 2.0df, 3.9war, 3.3war/650
7. J.Rollins: 823pa, 96wrc+, 10.0df, 4.0war, 3.2war/650
8. J.J.Hardy: 656pa, 82wrc+, 23.3df, 3.2war, 3.2war/650
9. I.Desmond: 876pa, 102wrc+, 5.2df, 4.2war, 3.1war/650
10. J.Lowrie: 640pa, 103wrc+, 6.5df, 3.0war, 3.1war/650


Overpaid? sure. But Reyes is still a very valuable player.
uglyone - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#301764) #
Reyes responds to Howarth: http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-reyes-responds-to-criticism-by-howarth/
Jevant - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#301765) #
Here's hoping the Jays rally behind him.

Heck, if they could use this as an "us against everyone, including other Rogers employees", and rip off a 10 game winning streak, I'll guess I'll be sending a thank you note to Jerry.

92-93 - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#301766) #
"The 7th man is insurance. Always having the 7th man available as cannon fodder frees him up to the other 6 as short relievers."

The problem I was referring to was that TWO relievers on the roster, one of whom is not a long reliever, pitched once in two weeks.

It's incredible that Castro still leads the team in saves this year with 4. If the team rarely has a tight lead to protect, you have to use Cecil in better spots.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#301767) #
A technical note on fWAR and Reyes' defence.  fWAR uses UZR which has Reyes as -12 runs over the last 5 years total (including +1 this year).  DRS has uniformly taken a dimmer view of Reyes' defence, -52 runs over the last 5 years total (-3 this year).  I'd be inclined to split the difference between UZR and DRS (-32 over the last 5 years and -1 this year).  If you did that, his fWAR totals would be considerably lower. Even at that, if he hits  .287/.328/.398 as he did last year and is 30/2 stealing bases, he's a useful player although not one that you would sign for $22 million per year.  FWIW, Kevin Pillar is probably at least as valuable overall as Reyes but you do have more options in the outfield. 
uglyone - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#301768) #
but bwar likes Reyes just as much.

2014: 3.2bwar 3.4fwar
2013: 2.6bwar 2.2fwar
John Northey - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#301769) #
I think the key thing is for the Jays to be able to bring in Goins defensively for Reyes without Reyes causing trouble (no idea if he would, but it is a risk...who can forget the George Bell sit down in 88).  We also need everyone healthy so DH is available from time to time for Reyes.  This is a defensively challenged team at a lot of positions.  You need defensive caddies at a few slots...
1B: EE - Smoak
SS: Reyes - Goins
LF: Colabello - anyone

So ideally once guys like Travis are back to 100% you'll see a strong defensive IF (Goins), a strong defensive OF (no idea), and Smoak in the late innings out there.  Also used whenever you can expect a lot of balls in play (Buehrle/Dickey).
Having Pillar in the OF and Donaldson/Goins in the infield right now helps a lot but if EE/Reyes/Colabello are all out there at the same time I feel for our poor pitchers.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#301771) #
but bwar likes Reyes just as much.

2014: 3.2bwar 3.4fwar
2013: 2.6bwar 2.2fwar

BBRef sets replacement level at a different spot than Fangraphs. Nonetheless, if you look at either the longer view (5 years) or the shorter view (2015 only), Reyes is unsurprisingly rated significantly lower under bWAR due to the use of DRS numbers.  He's probably about a 2 WAR player at this stage of his career.  You need those.
uglyone - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#301774) #
can't agree there Mike - calling him a 2-win player is just plain incorrect, no matter what system you use.

2014 bwar: 143gms, 3.2war, 3.4war/150
2013 bwar: 93gms, 2.6war, 4.2war/150
2012 bwar: 160gms, 2.9war, 2.7war/150

13-14 bwar: 236gms, 5.8war, 2.9war/yr, 3.7war/150
12-14 bwar: 396gms, 8.7war, 2.9war/yr, 3.3war/150

2014 fwar: 143gms, 3.4war, 3.6war/150
2013 fwar: 93gms, 2.2war, 3.6war/150
2012 fwar: 160gms, 3.9war, 3.7war/150

13-14 fwar: 236gms, 5.6war, 2.8war/yr, 3.6war/150
12-15 fwar: 396gms, 9.5war, 3.2war/yr, 3.6war/150


Last year and in recent years he's been a 3warish player by both measures even including injuries - 3.5warish player if you pace him out to healthy seasons.

Heck, even this year with his disastrous attempt to hit RHP righthanded for half his PAs he's still on a 2.4fwar pace.


uglyone - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#301775) #
As an addendum to my monthly splits post above, here's a more promising split for the team's pitching:

Last 14 days:

SP

7.1ip/gs (1st)
16.1k% (14th)
5.2bb% (4th)
10.9k-bb% (10th)
.269babip (5th)
73.3lob% (7th)
3.41era (5th)
3.65fip (7th)
4.00xfip (8th)
4.15siera (9th)
+0.20wpa (7th)
1.5war (7th)

RP

22.2ip (15th)
26.1k% (3rd)
3.3bb% (1st)
22.8k-bb% (2nd)
.297babip (8th)
60.9lob% (15th)
3.18era (7th)
1.53fip (1st)
2.89xfip (2nd)
2.46siera (2nd)
-1.07wpa (14th)
0.7war (2nd)


we've also remained #1 or 2 in all the major offensive categories.

Of course, somehow we're still only 7-6 in those 14 days.
hypobole - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#301776) #
fWAR and bWAR may rate Reyes as 3+, but you should be using MGWAR, in which case he's a 2. :)
Mike Green - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#301777) #
WAR/150 isn't really helpful because Reyes doesn't play 150 games.  I meant 2 WAR in a typical season for him (120-125 games).  You get a little more out of the position because Goins gives you some value in the other 40ish.  I'd also point out that his curve is basically downwards and he'll turn 32 next week.  You have to apply an aging curve (gentle) to his past performance to assess where he is now. 
uglyone - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#301778) #
Ignoring pace, then.

fWAR: 3.2 '14, 2.6 '13, 2.9 '12, 2.9 2yr, 2.9 3yr
bWAR: 3.4 '14, 2.2 '13, 3.9 '12, 2.8 2yr, 3.2 3yr
Mike Green - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#301779) #
All right, uglyone.  The discussion we were having came from what you have in Reyes over the remainder of his contract (until end of 2017).  I think that you've got a 2 WAR player/season approximately over that frame, you think that he's about a 3 WAR player/season over that frame.  So, if we take the average of bWAR and fWAR, the mid-point total WAR for 2015-17 would be 7.5.  Given his poor start to 2015, I'll spot you a little bit and say Reyes WAR over that frame will be 7.0 or less.  Are you on?  The prize as usual will be cuttlefish delight.  My record with these kinds of bets is pretty crappy, but you are welcome to try to lay another defeat on me.
hypobole - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#301780) #
The new RC turf may slow down Reyes ageing curve, both by being slower to compensate for his lack of rage and more cushioney to lessen the injury risk.

As for our pitching, and I don't want to sound like a guy talking about a no-hitter in the eighth inning, but has any other staff gone through April and May without having to DL one member due to either arm or shoulder issues?
hypobole - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#301781) #
Sorry, I guess I was channelling my inner Jerry Howarth in the previous post with the Reyes "lack of rage" comment; I meant "lack of range".
John Northey - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#301783) #
Looking at the rotation the weakest links appear to be Dickey and Hutchison right now.  I don't see Hutch going anywhere anytime soon, but could there be someone out there who would trade for Dickey?  He is cheap for a 200 IP guy with future years on team options.  It'll be interesting to see what happens this summer.  Where should the Jays improve - the pen seems the easiest area, rotation people complain about but the 2 doing poorly are hard to cut, the lineup has few weak spots.
Chuck - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#301784) #
The new RC turf may slow down Reyes ageing curve

Great! I'm putting some in my house.

uglyone - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#301785) #
Sounds good, Mikey! you're on.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#301786) #
Hutchison's ERA is pretty bad, but he's been victimized by poor bullpen support. Courtesy of BP,  Aaron Sanchez has left 15 runners on and 2 have scored, whereas  Hutchison has left 8 runners on and 6 have scored.  BP calculates Sanchez "fair runs allowed" at 6.06 and Hutchison's at 4.65. 

In any event, Hutchison had a poor April and a fine May, and there's no reason to believe that he won't be at least as good as his career norms from here on out.

Spifficus - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#301788) #
They anticipated 13 of Sanchez's 15 bequeathed runners to score vs 0.7 of Hutchinson's 8 bequeathings? I'm having a difficult time making sense of that without more going on than simply attempting to fairly account for runners left over at the end of a day.

For the purpose of showing math: Sanchez has allowed 26 runs currently in 58 innings, vs the FRA saying 39 should have come in. Hutchinson's actual was 38 in 63.1 innings, vs a calculated 32.7.

EDIT: I just checked the glossary, and BP's FRA is Fair Run Average, which is akin to FIP, not normalizing bullpen support. FIP style estimators are going to hate on Sanchez for a while, since it really penalizes him for the things he 'controls' (*cough* walks *cough*), but not accounting a lot for quality of contact.
hypobole - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#301791) #
For anyone who hasn't read Dave Cameron's piece on the Trubo trade yesterday, it contains insights on roster construction I (and seemingly many others) never realized.

You have a low OBP, high SLG team? Add more low OBP, high SLG!

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mark-trumbo-and-the-relative-value-of-obp-and-slg/
scottt - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#301792) #
Fangraphs has the jays at 2.0war last year for games played as Catcher (18th).

18th or 14th is around league average. That's exactly where Arizona and Seattle are, league average.

Assuming we don't care about making the Red Sox (or the Rays) better at catcher, I'm pretty sure those teams don't want to help improve the Jays.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#301793) #
Good point, Spifficus.  It's Hutchison rather than Hutchinson though.  Anyways, if you just attribute 1/2 of the baserunners bequeathed to Hutchison and Sanchez, Hutchison ends up with an ERA of 5.00 and Sanchez 5.04. 
scottt - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#301794) #
Markov Chains!

Feels like it's 93 and I'm back in graduate school.
Spifficus - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#301795) #
I'll take the accidental extra 'n' getting noticed over my math mistake (which didn't effect the conclusions).
Mike Green - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#301796) #
Hypobole, Cameron doesn't quite accurately summarize the chart in his article.  It is true that a low OBP/high SLG player is more valuable than a high OBP/low SLG player to a bad offence (low OBP/low SLG) and the converse is true for a good offence.   I don't see any examples of two mediocre offences of different characters (one low OBP/high SLG and the other high OBP/low SLG) in the charts.  They are simply bad and good offences.  If you were going to study the point that Cameron wishes to address, you'd look at offences like the 2014 Orioles (low OBP/high SLG) and the 2014 Indians (high OBP/low SLG).

The point he makes is probably still true but at a much lower level.  You need more than one good OBP guy to add to a low OBP team to significantly improve the chances of a long-sequence inning. 

Spifficus - Thursday, June 04 2015 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#301798) #
It just occurred to me, Mike, that assuming half of the bequeathed score is probably being excessively cautious. Toronto's pen is allowing 38% of inherited runners to score. The league average is 30%. I'd say the latter would be the better number to use, since we're normalizing out bullpen capriciousness, and it's closer to the 72.8% LOB league average overall. That would give Hutchison 2.4 of 8 scored, and Sanchez 4.5 of 15 (for fair run averages of 4.61 and 4.73 respectively).

Looking at their individual games also got me thinking about who was taking over those runners - 6 of Hutchison's 8 bequeathments were turned over to the underbelly (5th inning or earlier) and 2 in the later stage of the game (7th on). Sanchez handed over 2 to the underbelly, 8 to normal middle relief (6th), and 5 to the late inning guys. I'm not really drawing a conclusion from that... I'm just so very glad neither of them have been leaving runners for the underbelly or middle lately. Hutchison in particular has really turned it around, whereas Sanchez has had a nice, relatively steady progression. Those in particular, amongst a whole starting staff that has improved dramatically (especially providing innings of quality) has really left me as optimistic as a team can when it's 5 under .500.
mathesond - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 07:07 AM EDT (#301802) #
(which didn't effect the conclusions)

Effect, or affect?
Mike Green - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#301803) #
I agree, Spifficus, both that I was cautious about the average inherited runner run allowance and about the reasons for optimism. 
Spifficus - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 08:52 AM EDT (#301804) #

Effect, or affect?

Gah! I can only assume I was distracted by something shiny.

Mike Green - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#301808) #
And this chart summarizes most of the underlying basis for the optimism.  Subjectively, the major thing that the club needs to do is get the bullpen performing better in high leverage situations (including getting the better pitchers pitching in those situations).  This seems to me to be a more manageable issue than (say) not having a shortstop or a catcher. 
hypobole - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#301809) #
(including getting the better pitchers pitching in those situations)

The huge problem Gibbons has, as opposed to Girardi in particular, and most other teams is the "better".

With Girardi it's simple - Betances and Miller.

For Gibbons, Castro was "better" - until he wasn't.

Osuna was "better" for some time, but he hasn't been that lately.

Loup used to be "better", but he certainly hasn't been this year.

Hendricks seemed "better", until he was given the opportunity, then he wasn't.

Now Cecil is "better".

Having so many moving targets doesn't inspire a ton of confidence and makes the managerial decisions look far worse than they are.
Mike Green - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#301810) #
Cecil has been a good reliever for 2 and 1/2 years.  Gibbons has had more reluctance with him than merited because of the "LH specialist" box that he seems to have him in and because of Gibbons' conventional nature.  I'll grant that it has not been necessarily easy to fashion a good bullpen out of the material at hand, but Gibbons has made a series of judgments which have turned out to not work and produce an effectively bad bullpen out of decent material.  There is still time to recoup things, but the hour is nigh.
uglyone - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#301811) #
but that's on gibby.

cecil should have been the closer from day one, period. gibby got spooked by a couple unlucky early performances from cecil and had the crazy kneejerk response of making a 20yr old the closer. that was not smart, and imo has screwed up the pen ever since. cecil has a fantastic track record as reliever, and unsurprisingly his numbers look great again even after that bad start.

it should have been simple, but gibbons made it complicated.

uglyone - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#301812) #
or what mike said.

and hey i just noticed that the much maligned reyes has a 116wrc+ since he returned. He was also our best hitter the first week of the year before the injury.
hypobole - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#301813) #
Granted, Gibbons seemed to give up on Cecil early on too quickly, but even Cecil has allowed a .498 wOBA thus far in HL situations. For comparison, Bryce Harper leads MLB with a .486 mark.

The entire Yankee pen has a .249 wOBA in HL situations. For comparison, Ryan Goins wOBA this year is .272.
hypobole - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#301814) #
Gibbons has also, in a crazy kneejerk response, given the most HL reliever innings to another 20 yr old. That 20 yr old has been the best reliever on the team thus far.
vw_fan17 - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#301815) #
And this chart summarizes most of the underlying basis for the optimism.

That chart says our expected winning percentage the rest of the way is .560, and only the Royals will win more games than us the rest of the season in the AL. I'm sure the math is solid (and I'm a firm believer in statistics), but I just don't see it from our team - much the same way Pythagoras expects us to win a bunch more games every year. This chart, if I'm reading it right, claims so many things that seem ludicrous to me, at this point:

-the AL East winner will have 86 or 87 wins and be either the Yankees or the Rays. Jays will be just behind at 85 wins (not sure exactly how fractional wins/losses work on this chart, so I'm trying my best)
-Tigers will win 79 games and are expected to play .474 ball the rest of the way
-other than the division winners (Yankees or Rays, Royals, Astros), only the Twins (90) will have more wins than the Jays. This translates to a battle between us and the Rays for the 2nd wildcard.
-the ChiSox, currently at 24-28 (.462), 4 games under 500, one better than us who are 5 games under 500 at 25-30 (.455) will only play .416 ball the rest of the way, win 70 games and have only a 4% chance at playoffs. Jays apparently have a 42.2% chance at the playoffs. The Giants, who are 30-25 (.545), 5 "games" ahead of the Jays and are currently tied for 1st/2nd wild card in the NL, only have a 38.6% chance at the playoffs.

So, anyone (Mike?) up for that first bet? Starting with June 05 start-of-day standings, the rest of the way, the Jays will have a better winning percentage than anyone in the AL except for the Royals? Like, 25 cuttlefish or something?

(I like the optimism in the chart, and it heartens me, but I've also been following Jays/Leafs for 35 years... Maybe given my record in bets like these it'll help get us over the top :-)
uglyone - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#301816) #
imo he's treated osuna completely differently, and has let osuna earn his way up the pecking order. and osuna has outpitched castro from day one, and he still has never been given the Closer role.

what gibbons did with castro was crazy, imo, especially since his underlying numbers were the worst in the bulloen from the start

castro might still be up here if gibbons had used him like he used osuna....though he likely wouldn't have been as good as osuna, because osuna is just plain better.
uglyone - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#301818) #
"So, anyone (Mike?) up for that first bet? Starting with June 05 start-of-day standings, the rest of the way, the Jays will have a better winning percentage than anyone in the AL except for the Royals? Like, 25 cuttlefish or something?"

my head says take this bet, my (broken) heart says don't.

no matter which way i slice and dice the roster i still see an elite group of position players and a pitching staff that should be averagish. they should be a really good team.
Alex Obal - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#301819) #
They need the starting pitchers to keep going deep. If that happens they're the best team in the AL and will win the division handily.
Chuck - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#301822) #
% of batters that are LHB:

Cecil
2015: 28%
2014: 39%
2013: 49%

Loup
2015: 34%
2014: 36%
2013: 40%
2012: 51%

As Cecil has improved vs. RHB and proven that he is more than the LOOGY he started his reliever life as, his workload has rightfully grown increasingly righthanded. He just doesn't pitch very much. Don't know if that is health-related or due to Gibbons somehow.

Loup had flat splits in 2013 and has foregone LOOGY usage ever since, even though his career splits are 526/739. He really should be protected against RHB more than he is, but Gibbons holds him in higher esteem than that.

hypobole - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#301824) #
And Cecil wasn't just unlucky early on. He missed part of ST with shoulder issues, he had mechanical problems and his fastball, which averaged over 92 last year was around 90 in April (it's up to 91.4 in May).
electric carrot - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#301825) #
So, anyone (Mike?) up for that first bet? Starting with June 05 start-of-day standings, the rest of the way, the Jays will have a better winning percentage than anyone in the AL except for the Royals? Like, 25 cuttlefish or something?

OK vw_fan17 I'm game.  I am truly optimistic and I will take the following bet if you're game.  I bet the Jays will be 69 + wins come dawn Sept. 1 (this I think would be about a .580 win percentage) and they will be in the driver's seat to punch their own ticket from there.

25 cuttlefish.

Dave Till - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#301827) #
The 2015 Blue Jays:

(a) have a bad bullpen,
(b) have a poor record in one-run games (3-12),
(c) are underperforming their Pythagorean projection (25-30, instead of 31-24).

So I was wondering: is (a) the cause of (b) or (c)?

As a possible comparison, I looked at the 1983 and 1984 Jays, which were good teams with bad bullpens. (Whatever happened to Joey McLaughlin, anyway?) As it turns out, the 1983 and 1984 Jays actually outperformed their Pythagorean projection (+1 and +2 respectively), and had good records in one-run games (25-20 in 1983, and 34-25 in 1984). So I am leaning toward the conclusion that the 2015 Jays are underperforming because of pure bad luck. We are living in a world of hurt.
uglyone - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#301829) #
but again, the pen has been more "unclutch" than "bad". so far, at least.
Mike Green - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#301830) #
I have to take the bet too, for purely karmic reasons.  If I am going to take a borderline position on the negative side for Reyes' 3 years performance, I better take the positive side of the team performance over the rest of the year. 

Only one question- can you put cuttlefish in bouilabaisse? Maybe we should go for "sudden death cuttlefish" as the prize instead.
Chuck - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#301831) #
Something I had explored a while back was the number of games decided by 5+ runs. The Jays have scored a ton of add-on runs this year with minimal incremental value. All those blowouts can't help but mess with poor Pythagoras who is expecting an even distribution of runs for and runs allowed.

Just check out the size of the green bars versus the size of the red bars. Does this mean things will eventually balance out and the team's actual record will converge on Pythagoras'? Or is the team just really good at flogging dead horses?

John Northey - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#301832) #
It's been shown many times by many researchers that games won by 5+ are a far stronger indicator of future performance than record in 1 run games.  Given that the Jays should go on a hot streak anytime now.  Of course I've been saying that for about 20 years.
Alex Obal - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#301833) #
Whatever it is that helps you win the close ones (bullpen, contact hitting, fundamentals, speed, blase managerial body language), it probably won't be strongly correlated with one-run game record. That stat is noisy, polluted by games that are 5-1 heading to the ninth and end up 5-4 - how close are those, really? There is no such thing as a one-run game. While you're playing it, you have no idea whether it will end up being decided by one run.

I'd be curious to see how a team's record in competitive games - define that however you want, say tied after 7 innings? or weighted by how close the game is after 7 innings? - does as a predictor of future performance. I bet it's more promising than one-run games.
Mike Green - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#301837) #
In the Blue Jays 15 one-run decisions, the status after 7 innings was: 5 games tied,  2  games Jays up by 1,  5 games Opponents up by 1,  2  games Opponents up by 3, 1 game Blue Jays up by 5.  It is an imperfect proxy for "close games".  Anyways, I do think that it is close enough to provide some significant evidence.
Mike Green - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#301838) #
The Blue Jays have an 11-4 record in blowouts.  I checked to see if they were really running up a score.  I looked at those 15 games more closely and it doesn't look like it. If you check out the score after 5 innings, you get a pretty good idea.  In 6 games, they led by 5 runs or more after 5 innings.  In those 6 games, the opponents outscored them by 1 run in the 6th-9th innings.  In 4 games, they had leads of 2-4 runs in the fifth inning and arguably they piled on a bit in two them (but they would have to outscore the opponents to meet the blowout criterion).  In one game, it was tied after 5 innings, they scored 4 in the 7th and 4 in the 8th (the second set was definitely piling on).  In the opponents 4 blowouts, they led by 5 or more runs after 5 innings in each of them and outscored the Blue Jays by 4 runs in the last 4 innings. It looks to me like opponents have piled on to about the same degree as the Blue Jays. 
Alex Obal - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#301839) #
That's closer than I would have thought.

The Jays probably will not be at their best in close-late situations. Their offense loses more than most teams do from facing two overpowering righthanders throwing one inning each, simply because it's so righthanded and it has more to lose. The bullpen is still not quite as overpowering at the back end as you'd hope (though it is kind of funny to see people freaking out about Osuna because he's had two lousy games in a row - he's had almost a week off, and good on the Jays for quietly giving him the breather). None of these things are the end of the world.
Mike Green - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#301840) #
It is interesting that the Blue Jay offence so far has hit for a better slash line in high leverage situations than in medium leverage situations,  and a higher slash line in medium leverage situations than in low leverage situations. Opposing managers do seem to try to avoid using left-handed starters against the club so the right-handed tilt affects the team's batters to a similar (modest) degree in the early innings and late and close situations.
scottt - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#301841) #
When a team is losing in a blow out they put their worse pitchers out there. It goes to logic that the Blue Jays will remain great dead horse floggers unless they start playing the backup guys more in those games and start resting Donaldson, Bats, etc....
Mike Green - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#301842) #
Encarnacion back tonight with Colabello in left field again.  Colabello has cooled off in the last week, and I really don't understand why he is in the lineup.  Yes, his seasonal slash line is pretty but that .453 BABIP will not continue even if he bangs out more than his share of line-drives.  You either decide that he is a better option against RHP than Smoak at first base (probably not) or a better choice than a slightly injured Encarnacion as DH (maybe) or you sit him. 
Alex Obal - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#301843) #
Maybe the theory is the Astros aren't going to put any balls in play. Drunks and lampposts... but wouldn't you want Carrera's lefty slashing in there against Carmona, anyway? Unless he's hurt...

Interesting about the high leverage. Maybe they're just feasting off mediocre starters with runners on base in the middle innings? If you define "close and late" as "7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck," the Jays are hitting .231/.276/.400 and the AL is hitting .233/.301/.348. (Although the Dome has played as a pitchers' park this year, probably due to the turf.)
cruzin - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#301844) #
"You either decide that he is a better option against RHP than Smoak at first base (probably not) or a better choice than a slightly injured Encarnacion as DH (maybe) or you sit him."

While your point makes sense. I believe given that Sanchez is pitching tonight rather than a flyball pitcher, taking your chances with Colabello over Carrera in LF has some merit as well.
grjas - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#301845) #
So I am leaning toward the conclusion that the 2015 Jays are underperforming because of pure bad luck.

Yeah well, as I posted earlier, half their one run losses were from blown saves, and they have the third worst save % in baseball. So to date, it's not just been bad luck. Hopefully Cecil will solve that if they use him properly.

Given the periodic debate on the importance of the back end of the bullpen, I decided to look at the last five years of data on save percentages and teams making the playoffs. The data was interesting. Teams with a save percentage in the top 10 made the playoffs 59% of the time, middle 10 made it 30% of the time and bottom 10, 11% of the time. Therefore, top 10 teams were almost 6X more likely to make the playoffs. Furthermore, I looked at the consistency of save percentages by team- 7 teams were in the top 10 3 or 4 times, and 15 teams made the top 10 none or only 1 time. Closers do make a difference, and the good ones do it almost every year. So yeah, they are worth some big bucks. (Are you listening AA?)

PS- None of these metrics is perfect, but I sure prefer save percentage over WAR for closers. Speaking of Joey McLaughlin, did you know his WAR while in Toronto averaged 0.9 while Henke's averaged 2.1. Anyone else think the Terminator was more than one win better than the Joey?

BlueJayWay - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#301846) #
So I am leaning toward the conclusion that the 2015 Jays are underperforming because of pure bad luck.

I would agree with you but the one-run games thing has been going on an awfully long time. Back to about 2001, in fact.
uglyone - Friday, June 05 2015 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#301849) #
"Colabello has cooled off in the last week, and I really don't understand why he is in the lineup."

his 164wrc+ the last 2wks is better than his 160 season line.
vw_fan17 - Saturday, June 06 2015 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#301896) #
Ok, just to summarize:
-Mike takes the bet as stated - jays win more than any AL team except the Royals, rest of the season (good start last night!)
-electric carrot says Jays will have 69 (or more) wins come Sept 1.

Just to summarize the standings, I believe this is right as of start of play June 5 (selected "June 4" on the mlb web page). Please correct me if I'm wrong:
East: NYY 29-25, Rays 29-26, Jays 25-30, Os 24-29, Sox 24-31
Central: Twins 32-21, Royals 30-21, Tigers 28-27, Indians 26-27, ChiSox 24-28
West: Astros: 34-21, LAA 28-26, Rangers 28-26, Seattle 24-30, As 23-33

Link: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/#20150604



vw_fan17 - Wednesday, October 07 2015 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#312664) #
So, to update..

Wins since that previous post:

Jays: 68
NYY: 58
Os: 57
Rays: 51
RedSox: 54

KC: 65
Twins: 51
Indians: 51
ChiSox: 52
Tigers: 46 (ouch!)

Rangers: 60
Astros: 52
LAA: 58
Seattle: 52
As: 45 (double ouch)

In conclusion, the 3 teams in the AL that won the most games after that fateful June day: Tor - 68, KC - 65 and Rangers - 60.

If you'll excuse me, gentlemen, I am off to acquire 2 dozen cephalopods plus one..

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