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Breaking News Atkins New Man In Charge Of Jays Roster
Ross Atkins will be named the new general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays. The hiring marks a reunion between Atkins and new team president Mark Shapiro from their days in Ohio.


Ross Atkins was Cleveland's vice-president of player personnel in 2015. (Image from Ohio.com)


The 42 year-old Atkins takes over for Alex Anthopoulos, who left the team after not being able to "see a fit" under Shapiro . Atkins takes over for interim GM Tony LaCava, who will still remain with the club.

Posted by #2JBrumfield on Thursday, December 03 2015 @ 06:15 PM EST.
Atkins New Man In Charge Of Jays Roster | 269 comments | Create New Account
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Mylegacy - Thursday, December 03 2015 @ 07:18 PM EST (#316404) #
Thinking about this new guy, gets me thinking about the new guy just before him, which gets me thinking about the old "AA" Battery Bunny guy we lost to make room for these two and - it's depressing. Sigh...

I desperately want to put a good spin on this - IF I possibly can - remember this mess has NOTHING to do with these two new clowns now employed in Rogers own "Clown Mega-Store of Earthly Delights"... this is ALL on Rogers.

So here's the good spin. Deep in the swamp of Cleveland - (Cleveland! Just thinking of the word (let alone the town) gives me goose bumps - (and not the good ones Angelina Joli gives me) there were two bears. Papa Bear and his son Baby Bear. They ran a Baseball Club. Just like the real ones in NY, Chicago and LA - 'cept it was in Ohio (no not Chicago - the other Ohio - the one in the God Forsaken part of Ohio (shudder)).

Papa Bear was so tired of having no money to play with, "Oh, woe is me" he wailed. "I feel almost as bad as Poor Uncle Billy Bear down in that place on the West Coast where they Play Moneyball." IF ONLY - sigh - I had a budget of 20 to 40 large more than I have here - I could do MIRACLES I TELL YOU! MIRACLES!

Way up north, WAY up north - real close to Santa's Station at the North Pole - in a town called Hogtown - in a country so blighted by despair they actually elected a guy named Harper (and they did it several times!) - a Mr. Ebenezer Rogers heard his plea...

"Ho, ho, ho!" said Mr Rogers, " The schmuck I've been looking for! A guy so stupid he'll think the budget I give him will let him play with the big boys! Thank goodness there's one born every minute!"

And so it all began. In happiness and bliss, the two Ohioans set forth to cross the mighty lake, to reach the golden shore, to make their fortune, playing for the Wonderful Mr Rogers."

Yet deep in the Cabbage Town borough of Hogtown the residents were restless. One young boy asked his old Granddad, "Grandpa, how long before we run the two of 'em out'a town?" His Granddad didn't reply right away - He just smiled, and kept sharpening his biggest butcher knife, while he stared into the fire burning merrily in the grate - "Don't worry little one. It won't be long. Yep, it won't be long, eh..."
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jerjapan - Thursday, December 03 2015 @ 08:07 PM EST (#316406) #
I'm not sure where that came from MyLegacy, but it certainly was an entertaining read!
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rotorose - Thursday, December 03 2015 @ 08:25 PM EST (#316407) #
One of the best things that J P Morosi had to say about Atkins was that he knows the Latin American baseball scene and players really well - maybe as well as Ismael Cruz (who left the Jays shortly after AA did).  Clearly he is mainly hired to be a yes man (or should we say "Si, Senor Shapiro?)
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Michael - Thursday, December 03 2015 @ 08:26 PM EST (#316408) #
Well nothing too obvious good or bad about the new gm. The pluses are good relationship with Shapiro, and bilingual with latam scouting background.
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John Northey - Thursday, December 03 2015 @ 08:56 PM EST (#316409) #
Just for historical purposes...
The last time a new GM started and how we reacted.

Love this tweet...perfect in retrospect..."According to @MLBHomePlate, Anthopoulos title as GM is NOT interim. Anthopoulos will remain GM as long as Beeston is #BlueJays President."

Smithers had a good line...It was obvious by J.P.'s interview with Shi Davidi a few weeks ago when he called out Rogers for not "spending with the big boys" that he too knew this day was coming soon

Dave Till sounds like many now: I'm assuming that Mr. Anthopoulos's primary qualification for the job is that he is (a) already here, and (b) won't command a large salary.

Other quotes...
  • Reading the BB interview with Alexander Anthopoulos, he sounds like a glorified HR guy
  • As far as I am concerned, the #1 problem with the club yesterday and today is ownership.
  • I'm trying to resist the urge to be snarky, but if you can't see that the number one problem with this team right now is ownership, then we must be watching different teams. It seems clear to be that Rogers, 2009 version, has no idea what it wants from the Jays, and that this will be a major problem going forward.
  • Why is Tony LaCava not the GM right now?
  • Anthopoulos will be the general manager going forward, unless the new president (whenever he is hired) decides to bring in his own GM
  • I like the tone AA set in his first conference. He actually mentioned being interested in others' input and leaning heavily on LaCava.
  • It's terribly unfair of me to prejudge the new guy, but I can't shake the feeling that the Blue Jays have put the office boy in charge
  • I prefer not to pass judgement on AA on his first day of work. I think I'll wait to see how he performs over several years.
  • is it POSSIBLE Beeston is just playing favorites like he is when he protects Cito?
  • My comment: To those wondering why AA was hired without a real search - who says there wasn't? I also mentioned LaCava could be the president candidate (waaaay off there), and the danger of retreads.
Seems most were negative and hoping LaCava would get the job and fearing what would happen when the new President was hired. Took years but they finally got a new president and AA went bye bye and new GM brought in from outside with LaCava again the backup choice - always the bridesmaid, never the bride.
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SK in NJ - Thursday, December 03 2015 @ 09:08 PM EST (#316410) #
I don't have an issue with this. Shapiro is a sabermetric guy, and while I know nothing about Atkins, he likely comes with the same philosophy, so I'm fine with it. Shapiro is the main guy anyway, but having smart people around him will certainly help.

It would be interesting to know how much of the current Indians roster was influenced by Atkins, if any, especially as it relates to the development of SP's.
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Alex Obal - Thursday, December 03 2015 @ 09:17 PM EST (#316411) #
Honestly, if I were raiding front offices based on whose team is in the best shape relative to their market size, I would probably start in Cleveland. That team is going to make some noise next year.
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SK in NJ - Thursday, December 03 2015 @ 10:13 PM EST (#316412) #
"Honestly, if I were raiding front offices based on whose team is in the best shape relative to their market size, I would probably start in Cleveland. That team is going to make some noise next year."


Agreed. I don't think people are giving the Indians enough credit. Their roster looks very good, and their ability to develop SP's the last few years has been incredible. Payroll does make a difference in terms of wins and losses, and the Indians are simply on the lower end of the league in that department (payroll). If you gave the current Indians a $140M payroll, they'd be infinitely better.

That's my hope with this new regime. A small market sabermetric mindset with a top 10 payroll. Yes, we might have to deal with some "value signings" that look like overpayments once in a while, but the core of team building is developing talent internally and supplementing them via free agency when the time is right. I'm more optimistic about this regime than most are, but time will tell. I think Shapiro's approach to this off-season was the right way to go.
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christaylor - Thursday, December 03 2015 @ 10:37 PM EST (#316413) #
Stating the obvious: from the day of that thread, it would be another six years before the team played meaningful September baseball and found the playoffs. AA worked a couple of miracles, trading Wells and trading for Donaldson, he clearly knows how to work deals to go all-in with a good team. The Jays are still good and are still AA's team by and large, 2016 should be a fun team to watch again. Shapiro's first test will probably come if/when the Jays look playoff bound at the deadline, does he add for a WS run or play it safe?
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Richard S.S. - Thursday, December 03 2015 @ 11:15 PM EST (#316415) #
Hiroshima Carp are posting Kenta Maeda (28in April) very soon. $20.0 Million posting fee is required. He projects as at least a Mid-Rotation Starter. Do the Jays post? Should they post? I think so, it only costs money.
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scottt - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 12:04 AM EST (#316416) #
Maeda? No, but as long we're bringing everybody back, how much to sign Henderson Alvarez who still has 2 years of team control?
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hypobole - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 12:21 AM EST (#316417) #
Bidding the (assumed) $20 million release fee doesn't really cost anything unless you end up signing him. Money is returned to teams who lose out.

Would be bad optics at the very least if the Jays don't even bother to bid, although bad optics seems to be Rogers forte at times.
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whiterasta80 - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 06:20 AM EST (#316420) #
Maeda: it costs nothing to post and make a token offer so I say we should. Basically we'd just be policing to make sure no one gets a steal (like we or somebody should have done with Kang last year).

I'd at least make a phone call to Alvarez, who I always liked.
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85bluejay - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 08:11 AM EST (#316421) #
I can see how tough it is for people who don't belong to the old boy's network like minorities & women to break into baseball's executive suite.
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rpriske - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 08:29 AM EST (#316422) #
"Atkins New Man In Charge Of Jays Roster"

From the sounds of things, that is a very inaccurate headline.

It should be 'Atkins New Man to Hold Title of General Manager Despite Functionally Being an Assistant GM to Shapiro'
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Parker - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 08:31 AM EST (#316423) #
I can see how tough it is for people who don't belong to the old boy's network like minorities & women to break into baseball's executive suite.

By the "old boy's network" do you mean people who have played baseball professionally in the past, or people who have worked in a professional baseball front office for over a decade? Kim Ng is the only person I can think of who has been repeatedly spurned for "executive suite" positions for not being a good ol' white boy.
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Jevant - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 08:41 AM EST (#316424) #
"Clearly".
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Jevant - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 08:43 AM EST (#316425) #
The Indians were the team I was really hoping not to meet in the postseason, and I think they'll probably win the Central next year. Shapiro and by association Atkins are not idiots, and the sky is not falling.
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whiterasta80 - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 08:44 AM EST (#316426) #
Parker I think the fact that Kim Ng is the only name that you can think of proves the above point.

I have to say I'm unenthused about the prospect of a `Cleveland North` front office. I had no problem with Shapiro who brought a specific set of skills to the table that we clearly lacked, but I would have preferred to diversify beyond him.

In defending him I`ve seen people point to the fact that Cleveland has had fielded a competitive team with limited resources extrapolate that given Toronto`s higher resources this new front office could do great things.

I counter that by saying that we are in the AL East. There is a significantly higher burden on resources to compete in the AL East compared with any other division but in particular the AL Central. If we to try and quantify the difference in burden I bet it would be equivalent to the difference in operating budgets between Toronto and Cleveland.
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Jevant - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 09:18 AM EST (#316429) #
"http://andrewstoeten.com/2015/12/04/32150/#more-32150"

I know there are some here that don't like Stoeten, and don't like the language he uses, so if that bothers you, don't bother, but otherwise, as far as I'm concerned he kinda nails it here.

And he didn't really like the Smoak or Thole decisions either, so it's not like he's defending Shapiro/Atkins/etc at all costs. But he makes a good point regarding some of the ridiculousness of the criticisms that have been leveled at the new management.

As always, if you want to blame someone for the fact we don't have a $190M payroll, that's on Rogers. Has nothing to do with Shapiro/Atkins.
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TangledUpInBlue - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 09:31 AM EST (#316430) #
the fact we don't have a $190M payroll, that's on Rogers. Has nothing to do with Shapiro/Atkins

Mmm... I imagine Shapiro pitched himself to Rogers as someone who could work on a smallish payroll.
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Dave Till - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 09:38 AM EST (#316431) #

Is Rogers going to put the Jays on the Atkins diet? (Sorry.)

I know nothing at all about Atkins, what he will be like as a GM, or whether Shapiro or somebody high up in the Rogers hierarchy will be calling all the shots. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

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uglyone - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 09:45 AM EST (#316432) #
meh. after the emotional high of last season you can't complain that people are angry at this faceplant of an offseason.
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Dave Till - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 09:50 AM EST (#316433) #
Some more thoughts on Rogers as owners: I don't think they've been really bad owners. To see what bad ownership is like, look at Interbrew's tenure with the Jays - they were more interested in Labatts' beer assets, and didn't want the baseball club and didn't know what to do with it. There was a time when it seemed possible that the Jays could go into a death spiral and leave town the way that the Expos did. Thanks to Rogers, this didn't happen.

Rogers, as baseball owners, have two strikes against them. One is that hardly anybody likes Rogers in their other role as cable and Internet provider. The other is that they are a corporation, and have to think of their investors and shareholders. Other MLB teams are owned by idle rich sportsmen who, in another generation, would have owned thoroughbreds or polo ponies.

Many of these owners are now positively swimming in cash, thanks to bloated TV revenues and the wealth they started with. So they don't care as much if they spend a lot on an expensive free agent - it's either that or spend the summer in Gstaad or something. They aren't bound by the contraints that Rogers is.

As a fan, I find it frustrating that the Jays don't spend more on ballplayers when everyone around them are opening their wallets and flinging dollars wildly in all directions. But until some benevolent Toronto-based multibillionaire decides to open his or her wallet and buy up the Jays, Rogers is the best that we have.
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Vulg - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 09:51 AM EST (#316434) #
As always, if you want to blame someone for the fact we don't have a $190M payroll, that's on Rogers. Has nothing to do with Shapiro/Atkins.

Rogers is definitely the target of the majority of my frustration and disappointment. All of the dominoes that are currently falling are a direct result of the financial constraints that ownership is imposing - and to be clear, I don't even care that they spend up to the luxury tax threshold ($190M) or if they DON'T spend like Tigers ($165M) every single year. I'm pissed that they seem unwilling to move from $140M to $165M in 2016 to take advantage of a golden and fleeting opportunity.

Sure, it would have been fantastic to re-sign Price, but what I wanted more than that was ANY investment in front line pitching. I recognize that either of the top tier guys (i.e. Price or Greinke) would have been tough to secure, but I sure as hell expected the team to be competitive on the Zimmermans of the world. Somebody mentioned Maeda above; I don't see how the Jays realistically add him given their "budget".

And yes, I do question the wisdom of raiding the Indians front office. They've made 3 playoff appearances in 15 years (once as a wild card) and are best known for operating professionally on a shoestring budget. In ANY business, you look to competitors who are experiencing the best and most current success for top talent. Again, this is an indicator as to what Rogers views as a priority. Having said all that, I have nothing against Shapiro or Atkins (yet), with the latter being a faceless automoton. If Rogers says you're getting $140M in 2016, then there is no room for a Price or even a Zimmerman next year.

For years we heard that if the team experienced success and if fans started showing up, "the money would be there". Well, guess what. The team made a thrilling playoff run and the fans started selling out the dome and watching in record numbers. Rogers response? The same budget in 2016 as they finished in 2015.

Either Beeston and Alex were lying, or Rogers was lying. Given the latter's track record - the botched executive search and Ed's shameless CYA statements following Alex's departure (read: http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/rogers-anthopouloss-job-would-have-been-the-same-under-shapiro/), I know who I'm inclined to believe.
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Jevant - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 10:01 AM EST (#316435) #
"Faceplant of an offseason".

Come on. They've lost Navarro and Price, neither of whom were likely to return (for different reasons). They may lose Thole. They've hung onto Estrada, and added 2 more SP.

The anger is simply bizarre to me. The team is already in better shape to contend in 2016 than they were at the beginning of 2015. And the offseason isn't over yet.
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Jevant - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 10:04 AM EST (#316436) #
People who report on this stuff for a living have continually suggested Shapiro is a smart hire, and Atkins was up for some jobs in key spots already this offseason. There's lots of suggestion that one of the reasons Shapiro joined the Jays was because they will have more money than Cleveland to work with, and 3 playoff appearances in 15 years is a lot better than anything the Jays have managed in the last 23.
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christaylor - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 10:06 AM EST (#316437) #
"The same budget in 2016 as they finished in 2015."

I am as annoyed with Rogers as everybody else here, but I don't think we'll know the above to be true or false until after the deadline in 2016. After mulling it over, it seems like a reasonable plan to go with an OK rotation and budget room during the season to go for it if the cards fall into place.

The optics of this are bad, but the plan doesn't seem unsound. What if the Jays went all in on Price and the Jays are hit by a slew of injuries? What if Pillar, Cola, and Goins can't repeat their 2015s?
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John Northey - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 10:07 AM EST (#316438) #
People forget how much our dollar has collapsed. To Rogers $140 mil US in December 2014 was $162 mil vs today $187 mil so to them they upped the budget by $25 million in Canadian dollars. All the revenue growth was Canadian dollars, not US dollars so that is what they'd be working from. Exchange rates from Bank of Canada. Now if our dollar recovers (and gas skyrockets again in price) then we should expect a payroll near or above the luxury tax level. Until then though don't expect much change.
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rpriske - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 10:30 AM EST (#316439) #
"The anger is simply bizarre to me. The team is already in better shape to contend in 2016 than they were at the beginning of 2015. And the offseason isn't over yet"

Because looking better than the start of 2015 shouldn't be the goal.

The goal should be to be better than they were at the END of 2015. Since that still wasn't enough, they have to out-do it.

Instead they look like a team that would be happy with 3rd in the AL East.
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John Northey - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 10:59 AM EST (#316440) #
For 2016 they just need to be a mid 90s winning team so based on last years team if you go by runs for/against they could lose 7 games and still be good.

Lost...
Price: 2.4 WAR
Buehrle 0.9 WAR
Hendriks: 0.9 WAR
Hawkins: 0.1 WAR
Navarro: 0.7 WAR
Barney: 0.6 WAR

Also lost in season...
Tolleson 0.6 WAR
Reyes 0.6 WAR
Valencia 0.1 WAR
Norris 0.2 WAR

So worst case lost is 5.6 since end of year + 1.5 in season = 7.1 putting them right in that mid 90 win range.

Of course, we also now get full years from Revere, Tulowitski, and Stroman. Estrada in the rotation from day one. Plus new guys Happ and Chavez. Not to mention any other additions.

That doesn't sound like a 3rd place team...it could be but not the top possibility. Remember the Yankees only real move was to trade for Aaron Hicks - a CF who has yet to have a 100 OPS+, 2.2 WAR lifetime.

Yeah the Red Sox have been busy but they also were in last in 2015 so they had to be super busy.
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uglyone - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 11:02 AM EST (#316441) #
I don't see how anyone can find the anger bizarre.

We finally get good for the first time in decades, based on finally targetting star players for the first time in decades.....

.....and then bam, GM gone, Ace gone, and our big signing is a guy we just tossed away last year to nobody's chagrin. All while hearing the most banal stream of corporate nothingspeak around every move that we've ever had to listen to.
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Mike Green - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 11:11 AM EST (#316442) #
The Canadian dollar has bounced up and down and up and down during Rogers' tenure.  They even got money from MLB to help compensate for unexpected fluctuations. At this point because of the importance of oil to the Canadian economy, rapid currency fluctuations would be expected to be the norm and this has been the case for a long time.  It would be easy for a company of Rogers' size to hedge against currency fluctuations for its' relatively small baseball business, given that revenue is mostly in Canadian dollars and most of the expenses are in US dollars.  If they haven't done so, it is surely because the currency fluctuations are simply an expected and small part of Rogers' overall business and not really material to them.

Describing the payroll limitations that appear to be in play as "bad optics" is awfully kind to Rogers.  "Bad business" is the way that I would describe it.  There is potential for growth in the "Blue Jay division of Rogers" and (if the payroll limitations are what they appear to be) ownership has limited this potential through under-investment. 

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SK in NJ - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 11:15 AM EST (#316443) #
"We finally get good for the first time in decades, based on finally targetting star players for the first time in decades....."


By giving the 2nd biggest FA contract in franchise history to Russell Martin, by absorbing $100M/5 years in addition to giving up the team's 1st or 2nd best pitching prospect for Tulowitzki, and by giving up the team's 1st or 2nd best SP prospect who was a top 20 prospect in all of baseball to start the season + eating up $7.1M over 2 months for 11 starts by David Price.

Donaldson was oddly the only move that didn't involve either absorbing a truckload of money or giving up top prospects (save for Barreto). Unless you feel Alex was on the verge of acquiring Mike Trout for peanuts, there was no way he could have continued on the path he was going given the team's payroll in 2016. He didn't have the prospect capital to make big trades, and the payroll looks to be remaining the same as last season.

The sooner fans realize this, the quicker they can move on and join reality.
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SK in NJ - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 11:27 AM EST (#316444) #
"The anger is simply bizarre to me. The team is already in better shape to contend in 2016 than they were at the beginning of 2015. And the offseason isn't over yet."


Agreed. The team badly needed to step back from the short-term bonanza and start to think more long-term and about sustainability. The best way to accomplish that would be to add talent that gives the team a chance to win short-term without being a burden long-term. This strategy give them a chance to win in 2016 in what could be their final season with Bautista/Encarnacion (at least at their current bargain salaries) and allows them the flexibility to retool in 2017. Adding Price or Zimmerman, or long-term contracts like that were simply not the way to go.

Maybe it won't work when all is said and done, but it's way too early to say that.
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uglyone - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 11:28 AM EST (#316445) #
just in case anyone was still hoping for another pitcher (I wasn't):

Arden Zwelling @ArdenZwelling
Atkins says he feels the "major league rotation is enough to contend." Will look to add pitching depth beyond the major league roster.
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uglyone - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 11:30 AM EST (#316446) #
"By giving the 2nd biggest FA contract in franchise history to Russell Martin, by absorbing $100M/5 years in addition to giving up the team's 1st or 2nd best pitching prospect for Tulowitzki, and by giving up the team's 1st or 2nd best SP prospect who was a top 20 prospect in all of baseball to start the season + eating up $7.1M over 2 months for 11 starts by David Price."

Correct. We targetted star players in every possible way, and got them, and were the best team we've had in decades, with a compeltely affordable and flexible payroll.
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uglyone - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 11:33 AM EST (#316447) #
"The team badly needed to step back from the short-term bonanza and start to think more long-term and about sustainability."

The complete lack of appreciation for how rare a group of talent we had last year is remarkable, imo.

We may never see a jays team that good and talented again in our lifetimes.

and to take a step back from that in the hopes that maybe we can be better off in 2019 sounds ludicrous to me.
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JB21 - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 11:36 AM EST (#316448) #
(or should we say "claro")
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John Northey - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 11:52 AM EST (#316449) #
Last years team was unsustainable. No matter how much we all wish it was able to last forever. Price has a record contract, Bautista & EE will get around $15-20 mil each next winter, Donaldson is about to move close to $20 mil and will be over that in 2017, Cecil is a free agent after 2016, At $6 mil Navarro was an expensive backup catcher.

Yeah, the Yankees can sustain that and so could the Dodgers. I doubt anyone else would try as you'd be hitting $200 mil very soon for the Phillies north. They tried desperately to hold on as long as they could and spent a fortune after winning it all in 2008, got to the WS in 2009, lost in LCS in 2010, lost in Division series 2011, 3rd in 2012, 4th in 2013, 5th in 2014, 10 games worse in 2015.

I prefer to see the Jays try to regain strength now while having the talent in the majors they got recognizing all they need is to win the division or make the playoffs to maximize revenue, building beyond that is a waste of resources as you end up with a super team and no guarantee of a World Series. In 2011 the Phillies had 102 wins, their peak all time which is saying something for a team around since 1883. It didn't get them a 2nd WS title this century (they had one pre-2008). Yeah, I'd love Price to be here still and to add a top closer, top setup man, top 1B, top LF, but I'd also like the Jays to be contenders in 5 years. Hopefully the new management will have more patience and let the kids grow in house as who wouldn't love to have d'Arnaud & Syndegaard now? Plus all those other prospects AA traded this year?

Still, lets enjoy the memories of the bat flip, the anger over the throw that hit a bat, the joy of winning anyways, the confusion over seeing Price used in long relief. And so on.

2016 will be a fun year I'm sure - Bautista and Encarnacion will be going into it thinking this is the end for them here so they'll want to go out with a bang. Tulowitski will be planning out a full year here and hopefully be over the shock of the trade. Stroman will watch his footing a lot more in spring. Might have a LF battle with Revere/Saunders trying to get everyday play and Pompey trying to take over an OF slot. See if Dondaldson can repeat his MVP year. Etc.
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Parker - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 11:57 AM EST (#316450) #
I have to say that I can't really criticize the new front office for not throwing huge money at premium pitchers - it may be a pipe dream scenario to suggest it right now, but what if a $33M/season over-the-hill Price or a $25M/season continued-to-regress Zimmerman is what prevents the jays from retaining an asset like Marcus Stroman or Josh Donaldson (or even a Kevin Pillar) when they are no longer under club-friendly control? This assumes these guys keep doing what everyone thinks they're capable of, obviously, but it's never been Shapiro's MO to pay big free agent money (perhaps medium big under certain circumstances, rightly or wrongly) but maybe with a Blue Jays budget and quality player development, he can pay big player retention money when he needs to.

At the very least, Shapiro brings a track record of success, and without some numbers supporting it, I'm skeptical of the claim that Shapiro's proven ability in Cleveland will be negated by a move to a more difficult division. Surplus budget can mean a LOT more value, whether it's used to justify the manageability of bigger risks, or used to maintain control of existing known assets for even one extra season. A good front office can make great use of that extra money. Baseball in the AL East is still just baseball, even if the competition is tougher.
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Lylemcr - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 11:59 AM EST (#316451) #
The Sky is not falling.
1. The Offense is incredible. Look at that lineup. If everyone can remain healthy, it will be even better this year. Also.... Last year, we weren't sure about 2nd, 1B, 2 OF positions and Reyes was a Meh... This year, not a lot of question marks.
2. The bullpen will be even better. Let's say it is Cecil, Osuna and Sanchez + others(chavez). I feel a lot better than last year. Last year, we had.... an unhealthy Cecil... and many unknowns..
3. Starting staff is a little better(but not exciting). Stroman is healthy. Dickey is Dickey. Estrada is a little better known commodity. Now if Happ, Hutch or Chavez can be servicable as #4 and #5, it will be better. With this offense, alright is all they need. I still have high hopes for Hutch.
4. There are some good young players to get excited about (Alford, Vlady JR are two great examples). Considering how many players have been traded in the past couple years, it is still a decent farm system. This gives room for a trade at the trading deadline as well as a strong future.
5. Last, there is going to be a couple more minor pieces added. Madsen? Soria?

This year will be fun. I am looking forward to it.

What will be interesting is what happens the year after when EE and Bautista are free agents.
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85bluejay - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 12:01 PM EST (#316452) #
"People who report on this stuff for a living have continually suggested Shapiro is a smart hire." - absolutely true but these people say this about virtually every new President/Hire - I can't remember the last executive who was not described in these terms - it's pretty much standard practice, after all these baseball people will be interacting & trying to get info. from these Front offices for years. Shapiro should judged by his performance.
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85bluejay - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 12:15 PM EST (#316454) #
Saw the Presser, went as I expected. Atkins is well spoken (his go to word is "so")

- Pretty much said heavy lifting done for offseason - likely only tweaking - I expect a near-MLR pitcher acquisition or a veteran who can't land a major league contract and who can be in Buffalo auditioning for his chance & BP help.

- Dodged the "how long is this team's window" question - allowing themselves room to change direction as I expect will occur unless 2016 goes better than 2015.

- I think I saw Shapiro's nose growing when he was explaining about the "thorough GM search" he conducted.
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SK in NJ - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 12:20 PM EST (#316455) #
"Correct. We targetted star players in every possible way, and got them, and were the best team we've had in decades, with a compeltely affordable and flexible payroll."


So all the Jays had to do was keep giving out franchise-record contracts, trading for $100M players, trading their top prospects every 2 years, etc, etc, and they would have been fine long-term? Yeah, I'm not so sure about that approach.
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Mike Green - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 12:21 PM EST (#316456) #
In the non-tender department, Elian Herrera is interesting.  He seems to be a capable defensive replacement at several positions including third base and he switch-hits.  With Travis' recovery up in the air, he could platoon with Goins and give a day off to Donaldson once a month and act as a 5th outfielder. 
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eudaimon - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 12:25 PM EST (#316457) #
I totally missed that Justin Smoak signing.... what the hell were they "smoaking" when they decided to do that. He's just all around painful to watch play. Was hoping to see the end of him. What does he do that Colabello doesn't do, outside of play moderately decent defense?
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SK in NJ - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 12:26 PM EST (#316458) #
"The complete lack of appreciation for how rare a group of talent we had last year is remarkable, imo. We may never see a jays team that good and talented again in our lifetimes."


The team assembled from August-October 2015 was incredible. It just wasn't going to last very long, and it didn't. Enjoy it for what it was; one shot at a championship.


"and to take a step back from that in the hopes that maybe we can be better off in 2019 sounds ludicrous to me."

The Jays aren't taking a step back, though. They are still trying to win in 2016 while they have Bautista and Encarnacion under contract. They just are not doing that at the expense of long-term flexibility, which is the right call.
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uglyone - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 12:31 PM EST (#316459) #
There is no reason we could not have kept most of that team together for a few years.
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JB21 - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 12:36 PM EST (#316460) #
For 2016, definitely. After that, I doubt they could keep JB + EE along with Price, Tulo, Martin, JD, etc.
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Kasi - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 01:06 PM EST (#316461) #
Yeah just no way. Basically if you tried to keep Price (which wasn't possible because we only had Stromas as a legit trusted SP option entering this offseason) you would have to say bye to both Jose and EE. After this offseason I expect them to keep one of the two, just not sure which. But if they had signed Price both would have been gone next offseason.
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uglyone - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 01:18 PM EST (#316462) #
So they lose EE and get a replacement DH. Or let Bautista DH and go with the 3 young CFs all over the OF.

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Jevant - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 01:20 PM EST (#316463) #
2015 result was enough. They won the division by 6 games, and ran into a Royals team that the industry consensus was the Jays were better than, but anything can happen in a 7 game series.

I'm not big on putting all your eggs in the 2016 basket, and "who cares" about 2017-beyond.

I have no idea why anyone would say the team looks "happy" to finish 3rd in the AL East.
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Jevant - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 01:23 PM EST (#316464) #
And the only one we've "lost" from that team is that we refused to give out the largest contract ever to a SP.
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Kasi - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 01:31 PM EST (#316465) #
They could only keep one of EE or Jose at all if they don't resign Price. Price locks them out of both. Because if you keep Price then you can't have Jose/EE at 20, Tulo at 20, Martin at 20, Price at 30 and Donaldson at 20 on a team with just 150 million in payroll.
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uglyone - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 01:32 PM EST (#316466) #
2017

SP Price (31): 31.0
SP Stroman (26): 0.5
SP Osuna (22): 0.5
SP Hutch (26): 4.0
SP Sanchez (24): 0.5
(SP Greene 22, SP Reid-Foley 21, SP Harris 23, SP Hollon 22)


2B Travis (26): 0.5
3B Donaldson (31): 20.0
DH Bautista (36): 20.0
SS Tulowitzki (32): 20.0
C Martin (34): 20.0
1B Colabello (33): 2.5
CF Pillar (28): 0.5
LF Pompey (24): 0.5
RF Alford (22): 0.5


~ $120.0

Giving us $10-20m to fill out a bullpen and bench.
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Parker - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 01:34 PM EST (#316467) #
I'd like to see the Jays at least kick the tires on Craig Gentry. I'm still not thrilled with the upper-minors outfield depth; the Jays could really make use of a guy who isn't a liability in CF if Pillar gets hurt and Pompey doesn't hit.
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Parker - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 01:39 PM EST (#316468) #
SP Hutch (26): 4.0
SP Sanchez (24): 0.5
(SP Greene 22, SP Reid-Foley 21, SP Harris 23, SP Hollon 22)

Okay, but with Hutch as your 4th starter, if he flames out and nobody from your 6th starter group is ready, the team is back to a "Price + 2x WHO???" vs. four guys who have already shown they can hold their own in the majors, and that is assuming Sanchez can actually contribute as a starter. Honestly, if any one of that 5th starter group provides value in the majors before 2017, that would be a huge surprise to anyone other than massive BJ homers.
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Parker - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 01:41 PM EST (#316469) #
Sorry, that should read "if anyone of that 6th starter group..."

My apologies.
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Kasi - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 01:42 PM EST (#316470) #
Which completely locks the team out of signing any Free Agents for the next few years, locks them into a bunch of high risk old players who are declining and assumes that they just pay minimal arb numbers to all their young players and make no effort to make high value contract extensions for players like Stroman to buy out 2-3 of their FA years. Great idea though, go all in on +30 year old players. It worked great for the Phillies.

Also a starting rotation 3-5 of Osuna/Hutch/Sanchez for a team in win now mode is really risky. That has a high chance of collapsing very easily given any injuries or repeat of poor performances. They needed depth badly like SK has repeatedly pointed out. Price was never an option. They don't need one ace, they need 3-5 guys.
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Kasi - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 01:44 PM EST (#316471) #
Parker even the assumption that Osuna is ready to step in and provide meaningful innings as the number 3 next year is completely outlandish. Even if he makes the transition to starter smoothly (and there is no guarantee there) he'll be extremely innings limited.

Plus that cost analysis leaves out if you take Osuna/Sanchez out of the bullpen significant money needs to be spend to fill the gap them leaving causes.
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uglyone - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 01:45 PM EST (#316472) #
Why is it always the people yelling about needing kids that are always the most scared to play them?

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jerjapan - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 01:49 PM EST (#316473) #
"Honestly, if I were raiding front offices based on whose team is in the best shape relative to their market size, I would probably start in Cleveland. That team is going to make some noise next year."

I'd love to hear more about this from people - I'm trying to find reasons to be optimistic about Shapiro and while everyone seems to agree that he's bright, hard-working, highly regarded and sabremetric, I don't see much in the way of success - even relative to his payroll - on his resume.  He's had four strong teams in his 15 years including one that he inherited from Cleveland's last run of sustained excellence, and a sub-500 record overall.  2 executive of the year awards are good, but the last one was 2007, a team that won the only playoff series victory of the Shapiro era. 

The Clevelands to me seem to have almost no offense aside from Lindor, who is obviously dynamite, and Gomes if he can rebound from a poor year.  Their D is mediocre aside from the aformentioned duo and Lonnie Chisenhall who looks good in right but is more Kevin Pillar with the bat and without the wheels or premium position. 

The starting rotation is obviously the reason to be excited and it's a very good one.  I find their pen intriguing - plenty of low pedigree relievers - closer Cody Allen is excellent despite being a 23rd rounder who has never started a game in his pro career, and converted starters like Zach Mcallister and Jeff Manship.  good if not great, and a good example of how to build a pen on the cheap. 

They have some some talented OFs on the horizon but not a ton of significant immediate prospect help and a farm system that is perhaps slightly better than ours.

Kluber's and Carasco's contracts are great, but some of the other contract extensions signed by team controlled players like Kipnis or Gomes may or may not be successful. 

Am I missing something? 
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Jevant - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 01:56 PM EST (#316474) #
Kipnis is a superstar 2B. Santana's good. Brantley is good. Kluber/Carrasco/Salazar/Bauer covers a lot of warts. Not sure "no offence aside from Lindor/Gomes" is correct (Kipnis/Santana/Brantley are better than all of them, when healthy).
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JB21 - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 01:57 PM EST (#316475) #
Ugly, IMO that's some MLB The Show type planning.
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uglyone - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 01:57 PM EST (#316476) #
And why is it homerism to think that a kid like Greene who dominated A+ this year, held his own in AA last year, and will start 2016 in AA again.....might be able to contribute in 2017?

Heck if he pitches as well in AA this year as he pitched in A+ last year, he'll be a candidate for mlb time THIS year.
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Mike Green - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 02:00 PM EST (#316477) #
The Indians have the lowest estimated payroll in the American League at $65m according to BBRef.  If they bumped their payroll to $80 or $85m (still substantially less than any of their divisional rivals), they would likely be the clear favourites in the division and quite possibly as good as anyone in the league.
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uglyone - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 02:00 PM EST (#316478) #
"Ugly, IMO that's some MLB The Show type planning."

I mean, are you guys all pretending here, or are you legitimately telling me that you feel confident in the "stability" of the back end of our rotation this year?
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Kasi - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 02:07 PM EST (#316479) #
No we've been pretending for the last three weeks. Yes we're serious that pitchers who have multiple season at league average or above is better than a guy who was horrible last year, a guy who has never started in the majors and a guy with major walk rate issues and platoon issues. And it wouldn't be an issue if you relied on one of them as the number 5, but you're relying them as 3/5th of the starting rotation with no one to back them up in case of failure/injury/ineffectiveness.

So your 120 million becomes 132 since they have to bring Dickey back to have some sort of depth. And that leaves any room for spending in the bullpen pretty rough on their current payroll. But yeah you've been treating this roster like a video game for months, with no thought to depth or decline at all.
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Lylemcr - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 02:08 PM EST (#316480) #
OF of 2017??
------------
CF Pillar (28): 0.5
LF Pompey (24): 0.5
RF Alford (22): 0.5

Does anything touch the ground with those three in the OF? I would be scared that they would be bumping into each other all the time.
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JB21 - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 02:19 PM EST (#316481) #
But ugly, with your plan you have to assume everything goes right. We have 2 legit OF prospects and we're expecting both of them to pan out and be corner outfielders in the MLB. I agree that Osuna should be in the rotation, but adding Osuna, Sanchez, and Hutch and hoping for the best, isn't a great plan IMO. It also leaves us with no bullpen, with Cecil getting expensive as well.
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uglyone - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 02:20 PM EST (#316482) #
"But yeah you've been treating this roster like a video game for months, with no thought to depth or decline at all."

Funny that.

guys not projected as part of the starting lineup last offseason:

Pillar
Travis
Goins
Smoak
Colabello
Valencia
Estrada
Carrera
Kawasaki
Tolleson
Thole

Osuna
Hendriks
Doubront
Castro
Tepera
Schultz
Redmond
Francis
Delabar


how much did we pay for them?
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uglyone - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 02:23 PM EST (#316483) #
"But ugly, with your plan you have to assume everything goes right. We have 2 legit OF prospects and we're expecting both of them to pan out and be corner outfielders in the MLB."

no, we'd be expecting them to be nothing more than #8 and #9 hitters with good defense. They could even be sub-par 8/9 hitters given the top of the lineup. If they actually realized their potential and became legit quality MLB 3war starters, we'd be ridiculously stacked. And if they sucked, all we'd be looking for from cheap replacements is the same - passable 8/9 hitters. that's all.
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Dave Till - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 02:28 PM EST (#316484) #

I mean, are you guys all pretending here, or are you legitimately telling me that you feel confident in the "stability" of the back end of our rotation this year?

One of the cardinal (not to be confused with Cardinal) rules in baseball is that you can never, never, never have too much pitching. So on one level, you're right. I think I'd be worried about the starting rotation even if it consisted of five Clayton Kershaw clones.

But the rotation already looks better than this past April:

2015: Dickey, Buehrle, Hutchison, Norris, Sanchez
2016: Stroman, Dickey, Estrada, Happ, Chavez, Hutchison

So that's something.

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rpriske - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 02:28 PM EST (#316485) #
I knew they were never going to resign Price. Disappointing but reality.

But there is a whole lot of middle ground between Price and Happ.

For this team to contend they need the following:

Estrada's one good year in a row to not be a fluke.

Happ's LESS than one good year in a row to not be a fluke.

Stroman to build on the promise that he showed at the end of the season.

Hutchinson and Chavez to be BETTER that they have been overall.

NONE of the offense to regress.

Tulowitzki to return to form.

The bullpen to become much more consistent.

Now by no means do I think that NONE of this will happen. I am pretty bullish about Stroman, Tulo and the bullpen, and I imagine that at least ONE of the other four starters will turn out well... but that does not equal a contender.

Rogers is pissing away the opportunity to succeed while the window is open.

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jerjapan - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 02:29 PM EST (#316486) #
Kipnis is a superstar 2B. Santana's good. Brantley is good. Kluber/Carrasco/Salazar/Bauer covers a lot of warts. Not sure "no offence aside from Lindor/Gomes" is correct (Kipnis/Santana/Brantley are better than all of them, when healthy).

Jevant, I think you are overlooking how poor some of these players are defensively, and where they stand on the aging curve. 

Kipnis is no superstar.  Using fWAR, which sets 5-6 WAR as superstar level, Kipnis got 5.2 this year in his likely peak season.  He was 0.7 the year before that (scrub level) and projects at 2.8 as per Steamer (solid starter).  He's averaged 3.5 in four full seasons (good player) and is 29 next year, so quite possibly past his peak.  He is a below average defender for his career. 

Santana's peak fWAR was 3.6 at age 27 in 2013 - he's declined every year since, and has the profile of a player who is unlikely to return to peak form.  Given his lack of glove or baserunning and the positional value of 1b, he projects to be a solid starter next year.

Brantley also may have peaked in 2014 - his age 27 season.  He's averaged about 3 WAR per season as a regular and is brutal with the glove. 

Lindor and Gomes at least have positional value offensively.  And I agree, they have a great rotation.

But again, gaping holes at 3B, DH and CF, and a middle of the pack farm.  They are affordable, I'll give them that. 
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Parker - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 02:34 PM EST (#316487) #
Kasi, you're totally right about that - Osuna is at least as much of a question mark as Sanchez in the rotation.

uglyone, I'm not about "needing kids" so much as "having options" because so many of those kids historically don't pan out. Hutchison was the Jays' Opening Day starter a year ago, now he's not even a lock for the rotation. The last good starting pitcher the Jays developed before him has been paid $15M since the last inning he logged as a Jays starter, and that contract was offered by the GM everyone thinks was the savior of the organization.

All I want is options in case the best-case projection of the kids who have yet to prove ANYTHING doesn't pan out.
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Parker - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 02:39 PM EST (#316488) #
And why is it homerism to think that a kid like Greene who dominated A+ this year, held his own in AA last year, and will start 2016 in AA again.....might be able to contribute in 2017?

It's not that he might be able to contribute, it's that there's no solid evidence yet to indicate that he WILL. The number of pitchers with his minor league numbers who never contributed significantly at the MLB level is vastly larger than the number who have. I love Greene but the odds are against him until he shows some MLB success. How many starting pitchers have the Jays developed who've gone from a solid AA showing to an MLB contribution in the following year?
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Jevant - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 02:42 PM EST (#316489) #
I think Steamer is way low on Kipnis, personally, and I think he's a superstar when compared to 2B across the league.

I agree that Santana and Brantley have probably hit their peak, but they are starter-worth players and good foundational pieces (Brantley getting MVP votes in 2014, deservedly so). Add those 3 to Lindor/Gomes, and you have a pretty good foundation of 5. Knockout rotation, and one of the most affordable bases out there. If you could translate that group over to Toronto and give them the Toronto-level budget, the Jays would be in great shape.
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Jevant - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 02:43 PM EST (#316490) #
Or, if you took the Indians and gave them the Jays budget to add to it...

That's why I'm pretty optimistic re: Shapiro.
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uglyone - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 02:50 PM EST (#316491) #
"It's not that he might be able to contribute, it's that there's no solid evidence yet to indicate that he WILL. "

which is why he wasn't pencilled into the starting rotation.
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China fan - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 02:51 PM EST (#316492) #
".....For this team to contend they need the following...."

If every scenario in this list actually happens in 2016, the Jays will win 110 games and the World Series. 

They really don't need all of those scenarios to happen.  If even a reasonable portion of those scenarios does occur, they will be contenders and playoff favorites.
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China fan - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 03:11 PM EST (#316493) #
I must say that I'm very torn in this interesting debate between Uglyone and his challengers.  I think UO has made a very compelling case for why the Jays should have allocated their limited resources for one ace pitcher, rather than the lesser talents of Happ, Chavez and Estrada.  In the end, personally, I just don't have enough confidence that Sanchez, Osuna and Hutchison would be good enough to fill out the 3-4-5 slots in the rotation, and I do have some confidence that Happ and Estrada (in particular) will have good seasons in 2016, with Chavez proving useful as a 5th or 6th starter.  But I have to admit that we are just guessing on the projections for those pitchers.  By the middle of 2016, it is indeed possible that Happ and Chavez will be under-performing, whereas Sanchez and Hutchison might be good enough for the 4 and 5 slots in the rotation.  (I'm going to stick to my prediction that Estrada will have a good season in 2016, even if there's some regression from his superb 2015 season.)  Anyway, congrats to everyone on both sides of this debate, you're all making excellent points on both sides.
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Vulg - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 03:29 PM EST (#316494) #
I must say that I'm very torn in this interesting debate between Uglyone and his challengers. I think UO has made a very compelling case for why the Jays should have allocated their limited resources for one ace pitcher, rather than the lesser talents of Happ, Chavez and Estrada. In the end, personally, I just don't have enough confidence that Sanchez, Osuna and Hutchison would be good enough to fill out the 3-4-5 slots in the rotation, and I do have some confidence that Happ and Estrada (in particular) will have good seasons in 2016, with Chavez proving useful as a 5th or 6th starter. But I have to admit that we are just guessing on the projections for those pitchers. By the middle of 2016, it is indeed possible that Happ and Chavez will be under-performing, whereas Sanchez and Hutchison might be good enough for the 4 and 5 slots in the rotation. (I'm going to stick to my prediction that Estrada will have a good season in 2016, even if there's some regression from his superb 2015 season.) Anyway, congrats to everyone on both sides of this debate, you're all making excellent points on both sides.

Does nobody else find it absurd that the budget for next season is the same as the end budget for 2015 or find it a contradiction to expectations previously set?

That debate wouldn't even exist if Rogers had a willingness to spend like a top 6 team instead of a top 12 team in 2016 (i.e. 6th being the Tigers, which would conveniently give the team roughly $22M more to play with - or about the price of a Zimmerman!).

It just seems so much more logical to me to blow things up in 2017, when Donaldson's contract starts becoming untenable and the team is forced to deal with the Bautista / EE situations.

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Jevant - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 03:36 PM EST (#316496) #
Thole back with a $800,000 one-year deal.
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jerjapan - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 03:44 PM EST (#316497) #
nobody has really answered my first post - what does Shapiro have such a good rep?  what are his accomplishments?  Producing occasionally competitive teams on miniscule budgets?  extending homegrown talent?   I could easily be underestimating the value of his abilities to do more with less, but  he has a dreadful draft history and few on-field accomplishments.  Even some of his big trade 'wins'  like getting Carrasco aren't necessarily that outstanding - Cliff Lee was quite the trade chip.  Kluber though - that was a great deal. 

If you could translate that group over to Toronto and give them the Toronto-level budget, the Jays would be in great shape.

gotta agree with you here, as that budget difference could easily empower solutions to the holes on offense, and I do think Kipnis is better than Steamer - I'm learning that it's not the best system, so if anyone has a better tool, lemme know.

I found the link to the AA hiring thread fascinating - many of the same conversations around Rogers at that time ...
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 03:54 PM EST (#316498) #
"....That debate wouldn't even exist if Rogers had a willingness to spend like a top 6 team instead of a top 12 team in 2016..."

Oh, I absolutely agree that Rogers should have a willingness to invest much more in payroll.  But many of us have been shouting ourselves hoarse on that issue for years, and apparently it ain't gonna happen.  So then, with a limited payroll, how is it best to allocate the available funds?  Shoud it go to one free-agent ace, or three lesser pitchers?  That's the debate between UO and his debaters, and that's the question that I feel divided about. 
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China fan - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 04:02 PM EST (#316499) #
Congrats to Shapiro and Atkins for saving $1-million by negotiating a cheap deal with Thole, rather than letting him go to arbitration.  Every little bit counts, on a Rogers-owned team.  But I really hope that Thole is the third catcher, rather than the main back-up catcher.  If the Jays decide to give 40 or 50 games to a guy whose OPS over the past four seasons was a pathetic .563, they are basically giving away an almost automatic out in every rotation through the lineup.  That would be the definition of penny-pinching:  letting Thole be the main back-up catcher for 40 or 50 games, just because his salary is $800,000 (and because he catches Dickey better than Martin does).  If he's the main back-up catcher, he'll be catching a lot more than just Dickey's games, which would be a waste of a lineup spot.  The Jays were able to juggle 3 catchers last season -- they should try to do it again this season, which would still allow Thole to catch a lot of Dickey's games.  Maybe have Thole start the season on the 25-man roster, catch Dickey's games for a month, then put him on waivers (which he will probably pass through), send him to the minors, and use a better-hitting back-up catcher.  Then bring back Thole later in the season if Martin is struggling with Dickey.  But don't anoint him as the main back-up just because he is cheap.
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vw_fan17 - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 04:06 PM EST (#316500) #
I was very much in the "get Price" camp for a while. But, what changed my mind:
-it's better for the team to win 3/5 games by a 7-5 score and lose 2/5 by a 3-7 score, rather than winning 1/5 7-1, winning another 1/5 9-8 and losing 3/5 5-8. I.e. We don't need ACE level pitching to win most days.

-Our offense is so much better than league average that league average pitching will help us win many games. If Tulo hits like Tulo, Revere keeps up his better-than-the-guys-he-replaced hitting, Travis plays 75% of the season this year and hits as well as last, we could easily score 50-100 MORE runs than last year. We have the same monster-bashers back (JD, JB and EE), as good-or-better supporting cast: Martin, Smoak, Cola, Pillar. Now we have better LF/SS/2B.

-Price was anything but a stud in the playoffs. This is kind of what swung me over - his playoff record is nowhere close to outstanding/ace level. If it were, I could see trying to get him. As it is, I don't see him being that useful in the playoffs..

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uglyone - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 04:08 PM EST (#316501) #
"In the end, personally, I just don't have enough confidence that Sanchez, Osuna and Hutchison would be good enough to fill out the 3-4-5 slots in the rotation"

I think where I differ the most in this debate is my utmost confidence that Osuna is a very good SP whenever we decide to put him in there. Hutch and Sanchez I'm not sure about but I've been big on Osuna for a long time, had him as our top prospect prior to injury (and maybe even after injury but my memory is foggy) ahead of the likes of sanchez norris syndergaard etc., and the fact that he was a tremendous mlb RP at age 20 doesn't surprise me in the least (and I think it's a bit weird how what he just did isn't being talked about more - e.g. Osuna was a better RP at 20 than Sale was at 21-22), and I have zero doubts he has the stuff and the mental game to be a good mlb SP for a long time.
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Kasi - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 04:26 PM EST (#316502) #
Even if all that is true uo, he is a guy who is one year removed from major surgery and only pitched 80 innings last year. Even if he's an awesome starter its very doubtful he pitches more than 120-130 IP. Which isn't enough to rely on as the number 3.
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Lylemcr - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 04:31 PM EST (#316503) #
I am in the get Price camp, but ....does it matter?
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Kasi - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 04:31 PM EST (#316504) #
Also not to mention there is an argument that the best place for Osuna to transition to starter and Sanchez to develop a third pitch is AAA and not the majors for a team who is in win now mode. Which is why I think its very likely that to preserve the bullpen both of them are going to be kept in there and not stretched out this year. (or perhaps one of them is kept there and one stretched out)
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Glevin - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 04:34 PM EST (#316505) #
UO, you're trying to build around players who have never done what you expect them to do and Players who are in the decline phase of their careers and that's not even the biggest problem. The biggest problem is what then happens in 2018 and 2019 when your core has certainly declined heavily and you still owe them tons of money.. You're counting on about a dozen things to work which probably won't. You're taking Sanchez, Osuna, and Hutchison all being starters for granted. Probably, none will be quality major league starters ever but maybe one will but even then maybe not for a couple of years. You're counting on Collabello, Pillar,, and Travis to be as good as their only good year. Wont happen. You're counting on Pompey and Alford to be ready to start in 2017. Doubtful at best. IYou're counting on The veterans to not decline too much. You're counting on the Jays to be able to build a quality super cheap bullpen somehow. It's not a risky plan, it just makes absolutely no sense and no decently run team would ever do it. The Jays have one proven player I trust in their prime.. You can stretch proven or prime a bit to add a couple of players but either way this is simply not the sort of core you build around.
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Paul D - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 04:49 PM EST (#316506) #
CF, are you suggesting that the Jays carry 3 catchers?
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Kasi - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 04:49 PM EST (#316507) #
Not to mention that the biggest value you can get in contracts is locking up players through their late 20s/age 30 year. That's where you generate a lot of positive value. You never get much positive value on huge FA contracts. Price has to be a 4 WAR player next year to even just break even with his contract.

Having Shapiro here is a good thing, because Cleveland has shown a willingness to lock up a lot of good young players to great deals. I hope we do the same here with Stroman and other exciting young stars we develop. You're always going to have a few older stars on big money deals. And there will always be some youngsters on league minimum. But to be successful and sustain it you need a solid core of players in that 26-30 range, preferably locked up to great deals.
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uglyone - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 04:50 PM EST (#316508) #
none of that is true.

giving the bottom spots of your roster to top prospects is not crazy, but very reasonable.

pompey and alford being only passable 8/9 hitters in 2017 is actually conservative, not aggressive.

as for hutch and sanchez never being mlb calibre SP - both of them already have been, at very young age.


and in a disaster scenario where all these great young talents aren't even good enough to fill out the bottom of the roster, finding other bottom roster filler for cheap is always much easier than finding top roster talent for cheap.

meanwhile, the top of that roster would still be stacked with elite talent.


there's a fundamental difference here - you guys want to pay for bottom roster talent and pray that our young cheap talent turns into impact stars, while I want to pay for elite talent and not have to count on our kids to lead the team.
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John Northey - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 04:52 PM EST (#316509) #
The big value of Price was shifting Sanchez to the pen.
Price starts...
Wins: 5-1, 6-0, 9-2,12-4, 5-1,11-5,9-1, 4-2, 10-8, playoff long relief 8-4
Losses: 3-4, 2-4, all 3 playoff starts (3-5, 3-6, 3-4)

If he pitched like we hoped in either of the last 2 playoff starts we might be talking 'world champ 2015 Jays'.

So Price had 8 starts with 5+ run support - a level guys like Jack Morris won at an 800 pace. He had another one with 4 runs, one with 3 and one with 2 plus 3 in playoffs with 3 runs. He was 1-5 in those starts. Expectation is 50-50 for a 4 run support, a bit less with 3 or 2 runs. If Alex Sanchez was left in the rotation odds are the Jays end up with the same 9-2 regular season record or close to it, to have lost the east they'd have needed to go 2-9 and I doubt even Jeff Francis would've done that bad. In the playoffs I doubt the end result would've been worse with Jeff Francis instead of Price.

Just hope we don't feel about Jairo Labourt, Matt Boyd, and Daniel Norris like we do about Syndergaard in a couple years.

This is a reminder of why an ace may not be needed. I still think the Jays would be better off making the offense super elite with a better first baseman or LF than improving the starting pitching further. Win 10-9 or 1-0 you have the same result, a win.
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John Northey - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 04:56 PM EST (#316510) #
Wonder if there are any decent hitters who can catch/play somewhere else available? Erik Kratz type (who now is 36 and had a 32 OPS+ last year) projected to have a 665 OPS if given a ML shot which isn't good enough for a #3.
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jerjapan - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 04:57 PM EST (#316511) #
Also not to mention there is an argument that the best place for Osuna to transition to starter and Sanchez to develop a third pitch is AAA and not the majors for a team who is in win now mode.

Kasi,there's also the argument that the bigs - with the best coaching, teammates and opposition - is the best place to develop that third pitch. 

According to PitchF/x, Sanchez threw his four seam and two seam fastballs 88.8% of the time in 2014, his cutter the rest.  In 2015, the fastballs were 83.6%, he used the cutter more and experimented with a slider and a change. 

I tend to think that the best young players do best in the most competitive environment, while some of the late bloomers may be better off being 'protected' in AAA.  But I really have no idea how to measure if that's true.

And I personally love the idea of building Osuna's innings by stretching him out to start the season starting and then shifting him to the pen - you are getting the most innings safely possible out of him this way, and setting him up to take on a full starters workload in a couple of seasons. 
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uglyone - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 04:59 PM EST (#316512) #
and no, I'm not counting on pillar being a 4+war player, travis a 135wrc+ player, or cola being a 145wrc+ player either.

you guys are the ones counting on Stroman being an ace, not me. my plan doesn't need him to be.
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PeterG - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 05:00 PM EST (#316513) #
CF, the value of keeping Thole as backup is to preserve Martin. Martin does not catch Dickey well, has stress it appears and more importantly, can become injured. The offence should be able to carry the weak bat which is really no worse than Goins was a year ago, perhaps better.
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jerjapan - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 05:15 PM EST (#316514) #
there's a fundamental difference here - you guys want to pay for bottom roster talent and pray that our young cheap talent turns into impact stars, while I want to pay for elite talent and not have to count on our kids to lead the team.

This to me is the core of the argument, although I might word it differently - do you pay to raise the floor of the team's performance, or the ceiling?  I'm with Uglyone on this, but I definitely get the arguments from the other side.

Here's a thought - blow a bundle on FA's once, so you don't have to trade the Syndergaard / Marisinick / Nicolino / D'Arnaud / Norris / Hoffmans to get talent that allows you to be competitive.  Then you develop that talent to be affordable pieces on your roster and don't need to overpay for FAs.

This is what bugs me most about Price - we had the best position to sign the best FA on the market and, rightly or wrongly, we didn't take advantage of if.  When was the last time we had this kind of FA goodwill- Clemens believing in Gord Ash's mojo?  Molitor and Winfield during the WS run? 

We could have resigned Price, developed our prospects and dumped the big contracts in trades if needed - Miami got value from us for huge FA contracts.  We got value for Wells contract, of all things.  It is not nearly as hard to overcome a bad contract as people around here seem to think - although if you guys can think of bad contracts that HAVE crippled teams, I'd love to hear it!

We could have done this within Rogers payroll parameters.  The exchange rate is a factor, but Mike Green already illustrated how corporations deal with this challenge earlier in the thread. 

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Kasi - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 05:16 PM EST (#316515) #
We've seen for years under AA how bargain basement starting pitching looks when they play in the East. They look horrible. I don't want Doubrant starting for us. I don't even really want Chavez starting for us, but if he's the number 6 than I'm okay with that.

I feel comfortable that Happ, Estrada and Dickey can provide league average of above innings for this team. I have no such comfortableness with Sanchez or Hutchison. Osuna I actually share uo's optimism on, but I don't think we should screw around with him by switching roles all the time. I'd prefer to just make him starter and leave him there.

As for where young players should play, I'm fine with promoting players when they're ready. I don't think doing transitions and learning at the MLB level is wise when this team wants to win now and you can provide league average or above starting pitching from other sources. That's the thing that these moves for unexciting pitchers do. They allow you to develop your youngsters and bring them to the majors when they are ready to succeed, not rushing them before they're ready.
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ISLAND BOY - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 05:26 PM EST (#316516) #
My impression of Atkins in his new conference was that he is an earnest, well-spoken guy. I did find it strange that he said he would be relying on Tony Lacava to take the lead at the winter meetings and for the next few months. Is it not unusual for someone to be named General Manager and be apparently third in command with regard to baseball matters ? I know its his first gig as a GM and Lacava is more familiar with the organization, but it strikes me that he will just be a puppet with Shapiro pulling the strings.
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jerjapan - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 05:33 PM EST (#316517) #
IslandBoy, according to the post Northey shared earlier, AA said the same things - also about LaCava, natch, at his presser back in 2009,.

Shapiro is the top decider-guy no doubt, but he has promised a collaborative front office - I see Atkins' comments as positive in that light. 

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China fan - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 06:46 PM EST (#316518) #
Paul D and Peter G: I'm not suggesting that the Jays carry 3 catchers on the 25-man roster for the entire season. Just like in 2015, Thole could occasionally be the 3rd catcher, or tha main back-up, or he could be in Buffalo, depending on the team's needs. As for Martin: we've debated this a lot already, so I'll just briefly repeat that I think the issue of Martin's health is somewhat exaggerated and I don't think it hurt him very much to catch the knuckeball. But Thole should sometimes be on the roster, to give Martin a break, from time to time.
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jerjapan - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 06:53 PM EST (#316519) #
China, Thole, like Jiminez, is out of options. 

Does it make sense to get a FA catcher who has the skill set to learn to catch the knuckler?  The Sox DFAed Tyler Flowers, who scores well as a pitch framer.  I have no idea if that skill is transferable to catching the knuckler though - I figure you just want an athletic catcher back there.  What if we train Jiminez to be Dickey's catcher?  get a minor-league knuckleballer to pitch to him in AAA (assuming he clears waivers)?  Qunitero has brief experience catching a knuckler, so my guess is that Thole is the number 2. 

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Mylegacy - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 07:18 PM EST (#316520) #
Uglyone passed on this quote further up the thread: "Atkins says he feels the "major league rotation is enough to contend."

HE'S RIGHT! AND - this is exactly the ceiling Rogers is willing to pay for. Rogers is happy when 3.5 million come to see the Jays "...contend." AND - when we get to July they'll even consider (out of the goodness of their rotten little black hearts) a two month rental if it gives the team a shot at "Glory!"

And to be brutally honest, that's the best it's going to ever be - and while - I WANT MOAR - what we're gonna get is still several levels above chopped liver. As to Shapiro and Bullwinkle I really do believe they see T.O. as a MASSIVE step up from (shudder) Cleveland - and despite my occasional (dare I say) testiness towards them - I do believe they're both very talented guys who will give our team 110% to do everything in their power to get us to GLORY. I strongly suspect, when all is said and done - we'll come to appreciate their efforts on our behalf and hopefully we'll begin to be excited by their accomplishments.

Mr Shapiro and Mr Atkins - on my own behalf - and that of the legions of Batter's Box contributors, commenters and hanger-on-ers: WELCOME to Toronto! May the FORCE be with you, and us all!

I wonder if Rogers will let them buy Star Wars Lightsabers to wear on their belts - that would be cool!
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hypobole - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 07:20 PM EST (#316521) #
With the hiring of Atkins and promotion of Chernoff in Cleveland, there are now 5 current MLB GM's who've worked under Shapiro.
The others are Hazen in Boston, Stearns in Milwaukee and Huntington in Pittsburgh. Seems to have been a lot of smart people coming out of the Cleveland FO.
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mathesond - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 07:31 PM EST (#316522) #
if you guys can think of bad contracts that HAVE crippled teams, I'd love to hear it!

Ryan Howard? Or is he merely a gross overpay?
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electric carrot - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 07:43 PM EST (#316523) #
giving the bottom spots of your roster to top prospects is not crazy, but very reasonable.

uglyone, normally I agree with you.  Also, I think your ideas are basically right.  But I think there are two things that I'd like to add to the discussion:

1. This team already has top performers in a few spots -- the team you want already exists.  Once you have that, you're better off addressing the potential differential between solid but average level performers and what you might be able to scrounge up off the bargain basement MLB sale.

2. As a longtime Expo fan I would say that their early eighties teams suffered from the malaise of having superstars and scrubs but the scrubs actually didn't end up being decent major leaguers like our cheap players were this year.  They had perennial all stars Dawson, Raines, Carter, Rogers and a few others who were excellent but mixed with guys who were so bad that they actually normalized their best players:  Doug Flynn, Rodney Scott, Pete Rose, Joel Youngblood and many other forgettable other names. 

So, I think you make filling the gaps seem too easy.  And I think you're prescribing the medicine of 2-3 year ago Jays to this years Jays.  The problems are different.  The solutions should be too.
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hypobole - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 07:56 PM EST (#316524) #
if you guys can think of bad contracts that HAVE crippled teams, I'd love to hear it!

The huge Yankee contracts have caused temporary paralysis at least.
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John Northey - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 08:34 PM EST (#316525) #
FanGraphs says that Greinke is now looking at $35 mil a year over 6 years. Wow. Maybe the Jays were smart to lock up some pitchers early (Estrada & Happ) and Boston smart to lock up Price at that high price they paid.
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John Northey - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 08:53 PM EST (#316526) #
Ooops, turns out Greinke went for $195 over 6 to the Diamondbacks (everyone predicted Giants or Dodgers...NL West the new nuclear division). $32.5 mil per year, new record beating out Price's deal but with one less year.
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TangledUpInBlue - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 09:35 PM EST (#316529) #
Re. David Price, one thing that might be notable is that, in addition to the Blue Jays, the Tigers also weren't prepared to pony up -- be it this off-season or when they had him. And it's not like the Tigers are averse to handing out huge contracts. Which might suggest that the inside knowledge both teams have on the condition of his arm made them wary.
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TangledUpInBlue - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 09:40 PM EST (#316530) #
And I say that as one who generally thinks Uglyone has the better argument on Price. But there are limits to our knowledge about any of this.
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katman - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 10:09 PM EST (#316531) #
"The Cubs filled a hole in the rotation Friday, agreeing to a two-year, $32 million contract with free-agent right-hander John Lackey. The contract will be finalized pending a physical."
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/158851914/cubs-reach-deal-with-pitcher-john-lackey

We didn't need to put $200M into Price. TWO years, $16 million per vs. $12/13 to Dickey/Happ, perfect fit with our competitive window, slot a legit innings-eating #2 (with ALE experience) behind Stroman. Turns Chavez into our Luke Hochevar. This plus one solid back-end reliever, and we have a team that is feared. Instead of one that will probably compete, assuming too many uncertainties don't break wrong.

So yeah, we're annoyed as fans. We're also annoyed because it reveals Rogers as poor business people, because we can see the delta in their own filings.
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Jevant - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 10:22 PM EST (#316532) #
Can't imagine the Jays didn't investigate Lackey if that's the deal he signed (I imagine there were a few teams wishing they'd been able to do that deal today). Both sides have to be interested.
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scottt - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 10:45 PM EST (#316533) #
Dowbrowsky would know anything the Tigers knew about Price's arms. So, no worry there.
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scottt - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 10:50 PM EST (#316534) #
Greinke and Happ are totally different beast.

Next year project to be a weak Free Agent market for pitching, but there should still be half dozen guys better than Happ available.

If anything, Price looks even more likely to opt out in 3 years.

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SK in NJ - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 10:54 PM EST (#316535) #
In free agency, it takes two parties to mutually agree to a contract. Just because Lackey signed a specific deal with one team doesn't mean he would have signed it with anyone. It's a pretty pointless exercise to look at each contract and say "the Jays could have beat that offer". Maybe they tried to and the player didn't want to play in Toronto, or it would have required a lot more money/years to convince the player to come over. I'm pretty sure the Jays had a good idea of who they could realistically sign before making those trades/signings (Chavez/Happ).
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TangledUpInBlue - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 10:59 PM EST (#316536) #
Dowbrowsky would know anything the Tigers knew about Price's arms. So, no worry there.

Ah -- good point, Scottt. Well, then, I guess we should surmise the opposite of what I was saying: As of the end of July at least, his arm appeared in good shape.
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scottt - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 11:08 PM EST (#316538) #
But I really hope that Thole is the third catcher, rather than the main back-up catcher.  If the Jays decide to give 40 or 50 games to a guy whose OPS over the past four seasons was a pathetic .563, they are basically giving away an almost automatic out in every rotation through the lineup.

Thole is out of options. When you're talking about automatic out, the stat you want to look at is OBP, not OPS. Navarro had an OBP of .307 last year and Thole was down to .250. However Thole had a bipolar year. He had in OBP over .350 in May-June (OPS+ of 95 or so) and couldn't get on base at all in August-September (OPS+ of -25 or something like that).

A difference of .50 in OBP assuming 3 AB each game equates and extra out every 7 games. That's 7 outs over 50 games. That's basically nothing compared to all those games in which they were trailing and Gibby didn't use a pinch hitter. (Goins facing a lefty with the tying run in scoring position and Cola on the bench for example.)

Thole doesn't have Navarro's power, but he can probably hit enough for a backup catcher at the bottom of the lineup.

Not sure what happens when Martin goes on the DL, but that's one more reason to keep Martin away from Dickey.
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scottt - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 11:11 PM EST (#316539) #
The Jays just made it to the ALC series. And they have mostly the same lineup. I don't buy that nobody would want to pitch for that team. Those cliches don't apply this year, though maybe next year they will.
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hypobole - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 11:14 PM EST (#316540) #
Lackey 2015: 3.57 FIP, 3.77 xFIP, 3.6 WAR
Happ 2015 : 3.41 FIP, 3.69 xFIP, 3.3 WAR
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scottt - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 11:16 PM EST (#316541) #
I still think the Jays would be better off making the offense super elite with a better first baseman or LF than improving the starting pitching further.

Smoak was credited with four defensive runs saved, ranking second to only Mark Teixeira of the New York Yankees at first base.
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SK in NJ - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 11:19 PM EST (#316542) #
"there's a fundamental difference here - you guys want to pay for bottom roster talent and pray that our young cheap talent turns into impact stars, while I want to pay for elite talent and not have to count on our kids to lead the team."

The disagreement here is not about stars vs. mid-tier guys. Everyone would prefer having the star. The issue with your argument is it makes no financial sense, and your idea of roster construction is just not realistic. In your scenario, the combo of Price, Tulo, Martin, and Donaldson would have made approximately $90M in 2017. If you wanted to re-sign Bautista and/or Edwin, that's a AAV of $20M each for both. How could you possibly extend the team's window in that scenario? Unless you're churning out prospects like a factory, that plan would be pretty much destined to end up like the Phillies after the older players start to decline.

Like some of us have been saying, the approach by Shapiro this off-season works for 2016. They have elite talent locked up on offense/defense. The bullpen is a reasonably easy spot to fill compared to the rotation so I'm not going to worry about that in December. The rotation, with one perceived ace (Stroman), a bunch of league average or better options from 2-5, and hopefully some capable depth after that (Hutchison+) is good enough to win in 2016. Donaldson, Tulo, Martin, Bautista, and Encarnacion provide so much surplus value, and "diversifying the risk" means that the Jays are not stuck having below replacement level talent trying to eat up innings if injuries or ineffectiveness start to plague the regulars. It gives them a good chance to be competitive in 2016.

The real test will be in 2017. They won't be able to replace Bautista and Encarnacion with league average talent and expect to keep winning, so that's when they'll have to go for the more value driven approach rather than the value+depth approach. That's why I think the Shapiro/Atkins front office is the right way to go. To get value, you need management that understands value, and they do. Remains to be seen how they go about it.
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scottt - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 11:22 PM EST (#316543) #
Lackey 3.86 FIP, 34 WAR in 13  seasons
Happ    4.20 FIP, 9.4 WAR in 9 seasons

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scottt - Friday, December 04 2015 @ 11:25 PM EST (#316544) #
I'm pretty sure the Jays had a good idea of who they could realistically sign before making those trades/signings (Chavez/Happ).

Would Shapiro assume nobody wants to come here? Didn't he?
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Kasi - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 12:06 AM EST (#316545) #
There is a lot of reasons that free agents, especially pitchers do not want to sign here. It's been well documented in the past that players many times have turned down equal value deals to come to Toronto,
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uglyone - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 12:29 AM EST (#316546) #
one big signing later and price already looks like a bargain.
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uglyone - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 12:33 AM EST (#316547) #
lackey at $16m would have been a much better signing than any of ours. i hate him but that guy is the definition of a horse. looks like one too.

that is a guy who gives you dependability in the rotation.
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TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 01:06 AM EST (#316548) #
Lots of good news out of John Lott's write-up of the Shapiro/Atkins news conference.

There's budget stuff:

A reporter mentioned the bushels of cash that Rogers Communications raked in from all those sellouts in August and September. With that in mind, had Shapiro gone to ownership and asked for a payroll increase?

“Yes, and that’s obviously happened,” he replied, without elaboration.


And there's the other stuff:

Meanwhile, look for the club to spend money to expand existing departments or launch new ones.

* Shapiro said the Jays have hired Dr. Angus Mumford, a sports psychologist, to start a “mental performance department."

* The club aims to expand support services for its training, conditioning and medical staffs, Shapiro said.

* The analytics department needs a boost, Shapiro said. Its director, Joe Sheehan, is a star in his field, “but he’s operating with a staff that’s smaller than most,” he said. One of the new CEO’s first moves was to give Sheehan a job promotion, reflecting the emphasis Shapiro places on advanced statistics.

* The team needs a new director of Latin American operations after Ismael Cruz left to work for the Dodgers. “We’ll look to fortify that immediately. It’s top-of-the-list for us,” said Atkins, who once ran that department in Cleveland.
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China fan - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 07:38 AM EST (#316549) #
"....Thole is out of options...."

Yes, and I've explicitly mentioned this several times in previous threads over the past couple of weeks.  But, as I've also mentioned, I'm fairly confident that he will pass through waivers unclaimed.  After six seasons in the majors, his market value -- even to a team with Dickey on the roster -- is just $800,000. This is a pretty strong indication that he doesn't have value to anyone except the Jays.  So he can be stashed in Buffalo for part of the season.  (Another complicating factor is that he has nearly enough service time to refuse an assignment to the minors, but I don't see why he would do that, since he knows that he only has value to the Jays.)

"....Thole had a bipolar year. He had in OBP over .350 in May-June (OPS+ of 95 or so) and couldn't get on base at all in August-September..."

He only had 23 plate appearances in May and June, so you can't read anything into that.  His OBP in his entire Jays career is just .283.

"....Not sure what happens when Martin goes on the DL, but that's one more reason to keep Martin away from Dickey...."

This is exactly why Thole shouldn't be the full-time back-up catcher.  If Martin has a serious injury, the lineup loses a high OBP hitter (who also has slugging power) and his position is replaced by a very low OBP hitter who has zero power.   The only other catcher available is Jimenez, who has never played a game in the majors and has an OBP of .292 in his 89 games at the AAA level.  Regardless of whether he is catching Dickey or not, any catcher has lots of injury risks, and the Jays need to have a strong plan for that scenario.

I'm sure the Jays will pick up another back-up catcher, because Shapiro has preached the gospel of "depth" and right now they basically have zero depth at the catcher position.  My fear is that they'll acquire another one or two poor-hitting veteran catchers and send them to Buffalo and leave it at that.  They should aim a little higher.
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China fan - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 07:49 AM EST (#316550) #
"....Just because Lackey signed a specific deal with one team doesn't mean he would have signed it with anyone...."

Yes, agreed.  I think the Jays are still facing resistance from many free-agent pitchers who see negatives about Toronto, about playing in a foreign country, and about pitching in Rogers Stadium against strong-hitting teams in the AL East.  I don't think it's a coincidence that the two free agents that the Jays have signed this year (Estrada and Happ) are pitchers who have played in Toronto and have overcome their preconceptions and realized that it's a great place to play.  Other free agents who have never played for a Canadian team will usually have more resistance, which can only be overcome with over-priced salaries.
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scottt - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 07:59 AM EST (#316551) #
Happ and Estrada are both high risks over-priced signings.

You guys like to talk about equal money, but it seems like free agents almost always go to the team that pays the most. The agent that negociate for the pkayer has zero incentive to ask a team to match an offer.
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scottt - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 08:23 AM EST (#316552) #
He only had 23 plate appearances in May and June, so you can't read anything into that.  His OBP in his entire Jays career is just .283.

That's the most extreme cherry picking I have ever seen anywhere.

Thole has a career .319 OBP and that's driven down by his second half in which he only managed to get on bases 3 times in 23 plate appearances. (OBP .130).

He'll only be 29, so there is no reason those last 2 months mean anything.

Thole is as good as anybody the Royals used for backup catcher last year. Including Erik Kratz.
Stash a good defensive catcher in AAA, and call it a day.

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Paul D - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 08:37 AM EST (#316553) #
There is a lot of reasons that free agents, especially pitchers do not want to sign here. It's been well documented in the past that players many times have turned down equal value deals to come to Toronto,

It's certainly oft repeated on message boards, although there seems to be very little evidence suggesting that it's actually true.

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China fan - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 08:48 AM EST (#316554) #
"...That's the most extreme cherry picking I have ever seen anywhere...."

I cited the entire 3 seasons (120 games) of his full Jays career -- the last three seasons of his career -- and you're calling it "cherry-picking"??

You have to reach back to 2011 to find a season in which Thole has gotten on base at a good clip.  That's five years ago, and basically irrelevant today.  You can't use his career numbers, inflated by his 2010-11 numbers, and somehow project them to 2016.   Thole has been a terrible hitter for the past four years.  If you're content with Thole as the back-up catcher, you're settling for mediocrity and penny-pinching.


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whiterasta80 - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 08:52 AM EST (#316555) #
John Lackey is likely to be the exception here in terms of cost. I suspect that his contract had discounts related to

- the national league
- theo
- the existance of a legit ace to take pressure off
- the cubs
- risk of being the odd man out

No way he signs that contract with us and even if he did, I've always hated that guy.

I'm starting to think that people are complaining for the sake of complaining about our pitching signings.

There are clearly more teams in the market for the upper tier than originally thought (diamondbacks, cardinals...). I see huge value in adding depth at the start of the offseason and until I see reports of cash-related difficulties with a good value signing (i.e. Ervin Santana) then I won't judge.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 08:52 AM EST (#316556) #
"....there seems to be very little evidence suggesting that it's actually true..."

Anthopoulos said several times that it's difficult to persuade players to come to Toronto.  That's why he preferred to trade for veterans, rather than trying to sign them as free agents.  Of course you could claim that he is lying, but I don't see why he would lie about that.  And the real-world evidence is that the Jays did prefer to trade for veterans like Reyes, Buehrle, Dickey, Tulowitzki, Price, etc, rather than trying to sign the equivalent players as free agents, which would have been much more difficult.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 09:31 AM EST (#316557) #
Lackey is also four years older than Happ, and he's had (I think) TJ surgery.
[ Reply to This ]
Thomas - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 09:33 AM EST (#316558) #
no way he signs that contract with us and even if he did, I've always hated that guy.

I'd rather win with John Lackey than lose with J.A Happ.

I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that Toronto is a team that some players would not consider signing with, at least not without a noticeably significant increase to the highest offer they have otherwise received in terms of either or both AAV/length of contract. I also think it's not unreasonable to believe that Toronto is a non-factor for some players, who are simply looking for the best combination of AAV/length of contract for their individual circumstances and would sign with Toronto as long as the Jays offered that.

I don't know which of these players John Lackey is.

[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 09:45 AM EST (#316559) #
"The real test will be in 2017. They won't be able to replace Bautista and Encarnacion with league average talent and expect to keep winning"

they would if they had Price.
[ Reply to This ]
Kasi - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 09:48 AM EST (#316560) #
Not really. You can't replace two players combining 8 WAR who have a salary of 25ish million combined with one player making 31 million for 4 WAR and call that an adequate replacement.

Also one thing on the Lackey deal. It would cost us our first round pick so much rather have Happ.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 09:53 AM EST (#316561) #
I don't know which of these players John Lackey is.

I haven't read much about the signing, so this has maybe already been discussed, but I wonder if Lackey's connection to Maddon from their Angels days played even a small role in the decision. It feels like the destination choices ultimately come down to the biggest offer, but maybe if there are similar offers on the table, a specific personal connection might factor in.

[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 09:59 AM EST (#316562) #
Price has averaged 5war/32gs in his career and 6war the past few years.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 10:19 AM EST (#316563) #
and let's not forget that last year we had $58m committed to Reyes, Buehrle, Romero, Navarro, Izturis and the 3war they earned, and we no longer do.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 10:45 AM EST (#316564) #
Lackey is also four years older than Happ, and he's had (I think) TJ surgery.

Yup. Happ will be younger when his deal ends than Lackey when his deal starts. Lackey was horrible in 2011, then had TJ, missing 2012.

He has chewed up a lot of innings since then, though.
[ Reply to This ]
Kasi - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 11:21 AM EST (#316565) #
Price will be declining soon though. Maybe he has another 6 war season in him, maybe not. Also we will have Martin and Tulo both making 20 million a year shortly and I can see both of them dropping under 2.5 war quickly.
[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 11:22 AM EST (#316566) #
If we keep the same position players from last year.
1) We should have a good offense. We have lost Navarro. And Cola may not be equally replaced in LF.
2) The defense should be good. With Cola playing a lot less in LF.

So as of today, I am going to conclude that we have a strong group of position players. Of course injuries play a role. Especially major injuries. Backups are backups. The best they can do is soften the blow.

The pen? It needs to be good and deep. Osuna, Sanchez and Cecil made it good, I think, when they were in the pen. It probably was not deep. With Lowe & Hawkins it may have been deep, but I am not sure.

The rotation is a big question mark. It has been discussed a lot already. A full season of Stroman replaces a full season of Buehrle.It looks like the 2016 rotation may be deeper.

SP Derek Lowe said that if you sign with Toronto, Baltimore or TB you have to pitch against NYY & Boston a lot. Every pitcher knew how hard that was.

Pitching in the NL is easier than pitching in the AL. Some parks are good to pitch in and some are not good. Oakland is an easier park.

After 60 and 100 games, we should know how things are going. The W-L record, Runs For-Against... Pythag.

I loved the Jays team after the big trade acquisitions. They had a very good W-L record. Runs For may have improved. Runs Against definitely did. Pythag record, I do not know.

I will be very disappointed if we end up being a mid 80s Win team.



[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 11:29 AM EST (#316567) #
Buehrle/Romero/Izturis 2015 - $31m, 1 roster spot
Price 2016 - $31m, 1 roster spot
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 11:39 AM EST (#316568) #
Buehrle/Romero/Izturis 2015 - $31m, 1 roster spot
Price 2016 - $31m, 1 roster spot
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 11:48 AM EST (#316569) #
Good post, uglyone, but there's no need to republish on the nines.

It's interesting that Lackey had a qualifying offer and Happ did not.  Shapiro made a big deal about the fact that they were able to sign Happ without losing a draft pick.  I would have thought that this would be a relatively less important consideration at this point in the competitive cycle. 

[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 11:59 AM EST (#316570) #
It is too bad that we cannot compare how Lackey and Happ did last year while both were in the NL.

They both played for NL teams.
The parks would be similar.
STL & Pitt were both very good teams last year too.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 12:12 PM EST (#316571) #
I thought Price was only making $30m the first 3 years, before he opts out on a crazy 8 years contract.
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scottt - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 12:16 PM EST (#316572) #
The rotation is a big question mark. It has been discussed a lot already. A full season of Stroman replaces a full season of Buehrle.It looks like the 2016 rotation may be deeper.

Looking back, Stroman was looking good heading into Spring Break last year, so you never know who won't be able to contribute.
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 12:45 PM EST (#316573) #
Using your young players when they are ready is fine, requiring them to be ready for your plan to work isn't. Requiring four o r five young players to fill key pieces in a year doesn't work. It just makes no sense on so many levels. Here's another one. What happens if the Jays are in it this year and need to make a push by getting another piece. You have nothing to trade cause you are counting on almost every single one of your young guys to be mlb players in a year. and even if you did, you have no financial space to add a player.. What happens if Alford is not ready to start in 2017? You need to get another ofer but you have no money. What happens if one or two or three of Osuna, Sanchez, or Hutchison can't start effectively? You need to get a starter or three but you have no money. This is a league where Mike Pelfey is getting two years and $16m, what are you going to get for major league minimum? What happens if the bullpen is bad? You need to spend money to get quality and you have none. What happens if there is a serious injury? You have no depth so you can't replace anyone with any quality.

This is the reality of baseball. It's not pessimism. Things will always go wrong. Even The Royals who won this year but lost Gordon for months and had Holland go out for the year. They had the depth to recover and get past it. Your plan is extremely risky and counts on older players and prospects which means lots of things are likely to go wrong. It means the realty of having Price is not having guys like Alford and Greene coming up and starting right away and being productive, it's having guys like Craig Gentry playing regularly for you. It means trying out a guy like Naftali Feliz to be your closer. It means guys like Jeff Francis, Doubront, and Redmond getting a lot of starts. It means using someone like Kawasaki for 200 abs because of an injury etc... Stars and scrubs is a fantasy strategy. Not a real baseball one.
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 01:14 PM EST (#316575) #
"Stars and scrubs is a fantasy strategy. Not a real baseball one."

Yep. I would have thought 2013 when half the team was replacement level at one point due to high priced vets getting hurt/ineffective would have made people see how faulty that approach is, but I guess not.
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 01:25 PM EST (#316576) #
Samardzija gets 5/90 from the Giants.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 01:33 PM EST (#316577) #
TUiB - thank you for the news conference info.

"mental performance department is new to me, although I'm guessing other forward thinking teams may already have one. Seems to be a very forward thinking move.

Great news on the expansion of the analytics department; training/conditioning staff support as well.

AA was great at some things, but his forte was in scouting and there have been questions in the past about the emphasis placed on some of the areas listed above.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 01:46 PM EST (#316578) #
if alford can't hack it as a #9 hitter in 2017, then you invite a bunch of milb vets to fight over that 9 spot. in the end maybe you just have a bad #9 spot. big whup.

Royals' Depth this year:

8) RF A.Rios $11.0, 411pa, 0.2war
9) 2B O.Infante $7.5, 455pa, -0.9war

Bench

UT P.Orlando $0.5, 251pa, 1.0war - 29yr old rook
OF J.Dyson $0.5, 225pa, 1.8war - 30yr old career defensive replacement
IF C.Colon $0.5, 119pa, 0.2war - 26yr old rook
C D.Butera $1.0, 99pa, 0.0war - 31yr old career #2/3 C
UT C.Cuthbert $0.5, 50pa, 0.3war - 22yr old middling prospect

Traded For: Zobrist, Gomes



#4 J.Guthrie $8.5, 24gs, -0.7war
#5 J.Vargas $8.0, 9gs, 0.4war

#6 K.Medlen $4.3, 8gs, 0.3war
#7 C.Young $0.7, 18gs, 0.9war
#8 Y.Pino $0.5, 1gs, -0.1war -31yr old AAAA guy

Traded for: Cueto, Blanton

Bullpen

#5 L.Hochevar $5.0, 50.1ip, 0.1war
#6 K.Medlen $4.3, 14.1ip, 0.2war
#7 J.Frasor $1.8, 23.1ip, 0.0war

#8 C.Young $0.7, 24.1ip, 0.1war
#9 F.Morales $0.2, 62.1ip, 0.4war - 29yr old AAAA pitcher
#10 B.Finnegan $0.5, 24.1ip, -0.1wae - 22yr old prospect
#11 Y.Pino $0.5, 14.0ip, 0.2war - 31yr old AAAA guy

Traded for: Blanton, Chamberlain



[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 01:50 PM EST (#316579) #
"Stars and scrubs is a fantasy strategy. Not a real baseball one."

Stars and scrubs is exactly the strategy that got us to the playoffs for the first time in 2 decades.

And that time we made the playoffs 2 decades ago? yup - also stars and scrubs strategy.

weird how successful this fantasy strategy is.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 02:23 PM EST (#316580) #
"Yep. I would have thought 2013 when half the team was replacement level at one point due to high priced vets getting hurt/ineffective would have made people see how faulty that approach is, but I guess not."

2013

Bautista $14.0, 4.3war
Johnson $13.8, 0.4wwr
Buehrle $12.0, 2.3war
Reyes $10.0, 2.2war
Encarnacion $8.0, 4.0war
Morrow $8.0, -0.1war
Cabrera $8.0, -0.8war
Romero $7.8, -0.3war
Dickey $5.3, 1.7war
Lind $5.2, 1.6war
Rasmus $4.7, 5.1war
Janssen $3.9, 1.2war
Happ $3.7, 1.0war
Wells $3.6, 0.0war
Oliver $3.0, 0.1war
Izturis $3.0, -2.2war
Santos $2.8, 0.9war
Bonifacio $2.6, -0.4war
Davis $2.5, 1.1war
McGowan $1.5, 0.1war
Thole $1.0, -0.4war
Derosa $0.8, 0.0war
Rogers $0.5, 0.2war


2013 was the opposite of stars and scrub.

2013 was your Diversified Risk strategy, through and through.

AA learned the right lesson from that disaster, you learned the wrong one.


and the funny thing is all that overpaid crap at the bottom of the roster was blocking as or more productive cheap talent, something which is never taken into acount when talking about the riskiness of strategies. League minimum guys:

3B Lawrie: 1.4war, 2.1war/650pa
2B Kawasaki: 0.8war, 1.8war/650pa
UT Sierra: 0.5war, 2.7war/650pa
IF Goins: 0.4war, 2.2war/650pa
OF Pillar: 0.0war, 0.0war/650pa
C Arencibia: -0.4war, -0.5war/650pa
OF Gose: -0.4war, -1.7war/650pa


SP Redmond: 0.7war, 1.6war/32gs
SP Jenkins: 0.1war, 1.1war/32gs
SP Wang: -0.1war, -0.5war/32gs
SP Ortiz: -0.3war, -2.4war/32gs

RP Delabar: 1.3war, 1.4war/65ip
RP Cecil: 0.9war, 1.0war/65ip
RP Loup: 0.7war, 0.7war/65ip
RP Perez: 0.2war, 0.4war/65ip
RP Wagner: 0.1war, 0.2war/65ip
RP Lincoln: -0.4war, -0.8war/65ip

[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 03:07 PM EST (#316581) #
If you remove Marcus Stroman from consideration for a moment, can you look at and evaluate the Rotation that's left? Is it good enough to get the Jays to the Postseason, and succeed in the Postseason? That's important, because sometime this coming season Stroman runs out of gas/hits a wall/becomes an extreme injury risk.

When you consider the cost in acquiring any Starter at the Trade Deadline, does Shapiro give the go-ahead to do so? He might not. Acquiring that type of Pitcher now, just costs money, which by all indications by Shapiro said should be there.

As per TangledUpInBlue
Lots of good news out of John Lott's write-up of the Shapiro/Atkins news conference.
There's budget stuff:
A reporter mentioned the bushels of cash that Rogers Communications raked in from all those sellouts in August and September. With that in mind, had Shapiro gone to ownership and asked for a payroll increase?
“Yes, and that’s obviously happened,” he replied, without elaboration.

There could be a trade forthcoming for a Starter, but who does Shapiro let be traded? Free Agent options are a mixed bag of talent (numbers from top 50 Free Agent list):
8) Johnny "pay me Greinke or Price money" Cueto - Front-Line;
12) Mike Leake - Mid-Rotation;
13) Wei-Yin Chen, LHP (QO) - Mid-Rotation;
14) Kenta Maeda (to be Posted) - possibly #2 - #3 Starter;
18) Scott Kazmir, LHP - possibly #2 - #3 Starter;
19) Ian Kennedy (QO) - Mid-Rotation;
20) Yovani Gallardo (QO) - Mid-Rotation;
25) Hisashi Iwakluma (QO) - Mid-Rotation;
38) Mat Latos - possible injury risk;
39) Doug Fister - back of Rotation Starter.

Everyone may talk of being satisfied with the Rotation, but I disagree. I think they are a very good Starter away from being good enough, and still needing two more depth moves from being good enough.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 03:17 PM EST (#316582) #
Now see Shark's deal is something I'd have no interest in signing. $18m until age 35 for a 2.5-3.0war NL pitcher. No thanks.
[ Reply to This ]
Paul D - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 03:47 PM EST (#316583) #
Is there any chance that the Jays are in on any of the good starters left? At this point I'd love to get Cueto, although I realize that's almost certainly not going to happen.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 04:17 PM EST (#316584) #
I'm wondering if the Jays now are dumpster diving. Keeping an eye on the assorted pitchers and waiting to see who doesn't get what he wants come February/March and see if he'll take whatever the Jays offer. Kazmir, Maeda and Chen are the ones that most interest me, Chen just to keep him away from the Orioles if nothing else.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 04:26 PM EST (#316585) #
I worry about Cueto, with his shoulder and elbow problems last year, what are you getting? He was not a success in the A.L., which with everything else, shows he's not the top stud he thinks is. I caught a remark yesterday at work on a satellite sports radio show in a their vehicle. Someone from the Arizona team was talking, Dave Stewart thought the $20.0 MM per year was a $2.0 - $2.5 MM per year overpay. When there are that many question about a top Pitcher, I run the other way.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 04:28 PM EST (#316586) #
The first round pick is overblown. The Jays will be picking late. They stand at 26.
1986 they picked Earl Sanders #26
1988 they picked Ed Sprague #25
1992 they picked Todd Steverson #25
1994 they picked Kevin Witt #28

They haven't picked that late since.

At that point, it's a lottery and the compensation pick they lost by signing Estrada is just as valuable.

[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 04:40 PM EST (#316587) #
It is too bad that we cannot compare how Lackey and Happ did last year while both were in the NL.

True. If only Happ had been in the NL long enough to face more than 3 teams with winning records.

Against teams with losing records: ERA of 2.45
Against teams with winning records: ERA of 4.72
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 05:20 PM EST (#316588) #
"The first round pick is overblown. The Jays will be picking late. They stand at 26."

Actually, we're at 24 now that the DBacks and Giants have relinquished their 1st round picks, and could well move up a few more spots as QO FA's get signed.

There is also the matter of losing bonus pool money, over $2 million less to spend.

BTW, Trout, Cain, Ellsbury are all 20+ WAR current players drafted 23-25.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 05:48 PM EST (#316589) #
Pick #22 has been used for Marcus Stroman, Steve Karsay (very good reliever in his day, traded for Rickey Henderson in 93), #25 for Ed Sprague, #34 for Aaron Sanchez, #38 for Syndegaard and Cecil. So a pick in the 20's or later isn't a wasted pick but it does have lower odds than a top 10 pick for example. #24 has been used for Alex Fernandez, Rondell White, with 56% reaching the majors averaging 3.9 WAR. So not 'wow' but still a shot at glory there.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 05:54 PM EST (#316590) #
Happ had 1 bad start Aug 4 vs the Cubs when he 1st arrived, got shut down for 9 days while Searage revamped Happ's mechanics. From there, opponents and Game Scores:

@ NYM - 58
vs Ari - 56
@ Mia - 67
vs Col- 56
@ StL - 79
@ Cin - 68
vs ChC - 51
@ Col - 49
vs StL - 74
vs Cin - 70

So in that time frame, he had 1 sub 50 game score, at Coors Field. BTW, Col scored 449 runs at home, Jays scored 450 at the RC.

We all acknowledge he's not that good, but he's also not being paid as if he were that good.


[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 06:53 PM EST (#316591) #
If J.A. Happ is as good as Buehrle was, because that's all they need him to be, then he's underpaid. All indications are that he/they made significant changes in Pittsburgh to how he throws, to create that improvement. That could and should be the new Happ. In Pitt., he was: 7-2, 11 Starts, 1.85 ERA, .221 .262 .315. That may be small sample size but it does indicate the change(s) made were significant.

R.A. Dickey just has to be R.A. Dickey one more year. That would be good enough. Marco Estrada just has to be Marco Estrada again but just more balanced/averaged out. He knows how to pitch effectively now.

Aaron Sanchez (5), plus the multitude of 5th Starters (2), plus David Price (9) won 16 games last year. Marcus Stroman could and should be better.

All that's left is for someone to be better than Drew Hutchison, who despite being bewildering won 13 games and sucked. And people think this year's Rotation is better. More fool them.

[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 07:37 PM EST (#316592) #
I would give up a 1st Round Pick to sign someone who is one of the very best in all of Baseball at his position. In this year's Free Agent pool, Jason Heyward, Zack Greinke and Jordan Zimmermann are the only three worth that loss.

Of the Q.O.s yet to sign that might cause the loss of a pick: Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Chris Davis and Wei-Yin Chen are the most likely to go to teams with an unprotected 1st-rounder. But then again, with these GMs anything is possible.

If keeping picks, then consider top 50 picks must reach MLB and pick accordingly. Any pick beyond that to reach is considered bonus value.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 08:22 PM EST (#316593) #
Generally 2 players reach the majors per club per year who stick to some degree (ie: from backup infielder to 6th reliever to the next Albert Pujols).

To get a good idea of value... stats are pick overall, from Baseball-Reference
#1: 88% reach, 21.4 WAR on average
#10: 82%, 11.0 (early 1st)
#20: 54%, 13.7 (mid 1st)
#30: 54%, 12.4 (tail of 1st)
#50: 44%, 8.5 (1 bonus picks, 2nd)
#75: 31%, 7.5 (3rd round)
#100: 29%, 4.1 (3rd round)
#200: 17%, 12.2 (7th round... helped by Eric Davis, Tim Wakefield)
#300: 14%, 3.3 (9th/10th round)

So that gives you an idea of the value of picks. Sometimes you strike lightning late but by the 20th overall pick it is just 50-50 to even get a John Diaz (17 OPS+ lifetime).

Now, there is a lot of value in accumulating picks as AA showed. But the big thing to remember is after the top 10 or so it is a 50-50 shot at best that the player will even reach the majors. And often it is no better than a 1 in 4 shot that you'll get someone who makes an impact beyond what a AAAA guy can do. For example with that 20th overall pick just 9 have had 10+ WAR, 5 more over 3 WAR, 6 more with positive WAR over 51 picks, or remove the 6 most recent (none have reached yet) and that means 20% or 1 in 5 had 10+ WAR, which I consider the minimum to be worth skipping a free agent over. 31% or just shy of 1 in 3 had more than 3 WAR so producing as much as you'd expect in 2 years from a regular. 44% or under 1/2 gave their teams anything positive.

I'd love to do a full study of all picks but really don't feel up to it. The point is that if you can sign a guy who could give you 3-5 WAR this year and it costs you a draft pick that shouldn't be a big factor in the signing as odds are high that the pick won't ever give you that, let alone in a contending year.
[ Reply to This ]
Vulg - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 08:55 PM EST (#316594) #
I'm wondering if the Jays now are dumpster diving. Keeping an eye on the assorted pitchers and waiting to see who doesn't get what he wants come February/March and see if he'll take whatever the Jays offer. Kazmir, Maeda and Chen are the ones that most interest me, Chen just to keep him away from the Orioles if nothing else.

Mathematically, the Jays musta be in dumpster diving mode. If you build in committed salary and expected increases, you're already getting really close to their $140M budget.

Of the three you list, I like Kazmir, but I'll be shocked if any of them go for less than what Happ cost and the Jays in AAV. There's no way they squeeze in even another $10M+ starter under their (frustratingly rigid) short-term budget and none of those guys are going to be living in the garbage bin next season.

Now, if by dumpster diving you mean a few retreads who get spring training invites with an opportunity to impress and fill in as injury backup in AAA, then yeah, I expect a bunch of that.
[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 09:06 PM EST (#316595) #
Thanks for your work and effort John N.

So 2 #20 picks at 54% should mathematically get us I Ml player of some sort.

D Pompey, Roman Fields and A Loup give us value from just sheer luck, as they were picked quite late. Their signing bonuses would reflect this. H Alvarez was another signing that was just a guy. I hope he stays healthy.

You could stumble into a pretty good team.

Bautista, EE and D Ortiz were not successful drafts as their teams gave up on them. I would have to say that Toronto & Boston got very lucky. I would not say that they were smart.
[ Reply to This ]
pubster - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 10:15 PM EST (#316596) #
I think it might seem like luck to fans, but Bautista and EE and the rest of the players are working closely with hitting coaches and the rest of the staff.

When you are working with an athlete and he starts having success I don't think thats luck really.

If you have good coaches/scouts then over time you should be able to bring players into the organization and help improve their performance.

It won't work with every player (ie. Rasmus) but over time there should be enough success stories.

Ryan Goins second half has me very interested in what he will be able to do next year and hopefully can be another example.

If Estrada can keep up last year's success then there is another player the Jays have been able to improve significantly.

[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 10:47 PM EST (#316597) #
Consider what the Budget must be.
For every Million available at Trade Deadline time you can acquire up to $3.0 Million depending on how much of the season is left. So to be safe you'd need around $7.0 MM to acquire as much as $21.0 MM then.
To sign the quality of Relievers this team needs may cost $10.0 - $12.0 MM. To go with anything less may very well not be good enough.
To "do something creative" is never free or saves money. I hate when some says this, it's never all good news.
Hopefully soon, someone realizes that without Stroman this Rotation is not good enough. At least with enough time they might get a good Starter $12.5 - $15.0 MM.
That easily comes to another $29.5 - $34.0 MM or more just to fill the holes.

Saving pennies makes a difference. Signing Smoak was a fair increase on what he should have been paid last year. Non-tendering and resigning Thole means they are within $900 K of Arby estimates. Signing two or more year extensions with Arby eligibles might save some money this year. But if that happens, it will be later in the month.

This weekend the early arrivals for the Winter Meetings start showing up. Hopefully our guys arrive early and get something significant done, waiting can be frustrating.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Saturday, December 05 2015 @ 11:43 PM EST (#316598) #
D Pompey, Roman Fields and A Loup give us value from just sheer luck, as they were picked quite late. Their signing bonuses would reflect this.

Pompey got $140,000 signing bonus. Many high school players drop because they have college commitments. Hutch and Rowdy were other later round picks who got sizeable bonuses.

Now Kevin Pillar was a lot of luck on the Jays part. He only got $1000 bonus.
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John Northey - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 12:21 AM EST (#316599) #
Luck or skill? When it comes to the draft you need both.

1989 Jays draft: 3rd round pick John Olerud - taken in the 3rd round after Gillick lost out on Bo Jackson because he planned to take him in the 4th but KC got him first. 20th round pick Jeff Kent was a heck of a find for some scout, out of a university not drafted out of high school so odds are no one knew of him. Both guys got over 50 WAR and were near HOF'ers Kent might actually get in someday (most HR by a 2B). First round pick was Eddie Zosky who had -0.5 WAR lifetime. Of all first rounders that year, only one had more lifetime WAR than the Jay 3rd & 20th round picks, Frank Thomas taken 7th overall. No one in the 2nd round got to 10 WAR, 4th round saw the Red Sox draft Jeff Bagwell who they'd later trade for 1/2 a season from a middle reliever. So of the top 4 players drafted that year the top WAR was from a 4th rounder, 2nd was a 1st rounder, 3rd a 3rd rounder, 4th a 20th rounder.

Boy does the draft have a lot of luck involved but like I said, some scout had to have seen Kent and said 'here is a guy worth taking, but no one else seems interested so wait a bit'. FYI: Olerud was viewed as a first round lock but was committed to 4th year of college (Jays bought that out by bringing him straight to the majors).
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hypobole - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 01:12 AM EST (#316600) #
Olerud had brain aneurysm surgery in college. I seem to recall that scared some teams off drafting him.
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jgadfly - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 03:15 AM EST (#316601) #
My 2 cents ... RE: uglyone's post above @ 11:28 AM EST (#316445) quoting ... Arden Zwelling @ArdenZwelling

"Atkins says he feels the "major league rotation is enough to contend"..."

I'm sorry but if the new GM said this then he really doesn't understand what the job of being GM of the Toronto Blue Jays is, nor does he comprehend the Toronto market nor the team's situation ... he doesn't need the "major league rotation" to be good "enough to contend" he needs the "major league rotation" to be better than good enough to be World Series Champions and looking at it I don't think that it is even better than the staff that weren't good enough to even be A.L. Champs. 'Contending' should not be in his vocabulary.

It seems that those (ie: the 'chatterers' in the hire of or the scribblers beholding to Rogers) calling for calm or support for the new Shapiro-Atkins duo are doing so by failing to recognize the value, accomplishments, successes and market knowledge of their outgoing predecessors. This is not the duo's fault but just another of the many myriad of "bad business" decisions made by Rogers regarding their most successful asset; Canada's Team. Simply put, how does dumping the two Canadians at the top of the management hierarchy and replacing them with two mediocre Mericans from Cleveland enhance the value of the Canada Jays.
I was hoping that some RadioCanada pundit at Atkins' presser would pose a question 'en francais' for their ensuing answer of bewilderment ...Uhh ?

In relation to Shapiro's hiring, I heard that he was a wiz at innovative promotions to increase attendance ... then I checked Cleveland's attendance record. They were better than Tampa Bay at least.

Strangely, I found the argument of PTS' Bob McCown as the most compelling bit of thought on the matter that I've heard or read. McCown said that what the Blue Jays did for Rogers from August 1st onwards was unprecedented in Rogers' history. The Jays blew past any measures of success that Rogers had ever encountered... Attendance at games, sales of merchandise, television revenues, television ratings ...and the most important thing that a telecommunications corp cannot even put a dollar value on ...the public's image of and good will toward ...

McCown also proposed that it was in Rogers' best interest to heavilly commit more funds to sign free agents such as Price and Davis (perhaps even Zobrist ...heck, yeah...)... his reasoning, I surmise, is because the Jay window does not extend beyond this upcoming year, and because, the cupboard, once brimming with pitchers that were to be the foundation of the future, the arms that were to be the wellspring that would keep an abundant supply of cheap pre-arb thunder at bargain basement prices to underwrite the contracts of position players ,no longer exists and without these... then perhaps this window will be forever shut and a new endless winter of desolated hope will decend ... oh well, at least we had baseball in October, but it appears that once again we will be rogered by Rogers
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Vulg - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 05:19 AM EST (#316602) #
Strangely, I found the argument of PTS' Bob McCown as the most compelling bit of thought on the matter that I've heard or read. McCown said that what the Blue Jays did for Rogers from August 1st onwards was unprecedented in Rogers' history. The Jays blew past any measures of success that Rogers had ever encountered... Attendance at games, sales of merchandise, television revenues, television ratings ...and the most important thing that a telecommunications corp cannot even put a dollar value on ...the public's image of and good will toward ...

McCown also proposed that it was in Rogers' best interest to heavilly commit more funds to sign free agents such as Price and Davis (perhaps even Zobrist ...heck, yeah...)... his reasoning, I surmise, is because the Jay window does not extend beyond this upcoming year, and because, the cupboard, once brimming with pitchers that were to be the foundation of the future, the arms that were to be the wellspring that would keep an abundant supply of cheap pre-arb thunder at bargain basement prices to underwrite the contracts of position players ,no longer exists and without these... then perhaps this window will be forever shut and a new endless winter of desolated hope will decend ... oh well, at least we had baseball in October, but it appears that once again we will be rogered by Rogers

Thank you for articulating this perspective better than I have. McCown is pretty much the only media personality I've been able to stomach on this topic.

I've had people mistaken my reaction to Rogers' refusal to invest in a team on the cusp of a World Series as spite or even petulance. It's more of a suspension of the emotional investment and the "fantasy of hope" that any fan has towards their team.

The Jays are close to the prize but Rogers has other priorities, starting in 2016, despite certainly being able to afford a run. I suppose this means different things to different people, but for me, it erodes my fandom. I drew a comparison to the Maple Leafs earlier; like many others, I grew up a snot-nosed kid playing street hockey until the freezing dark, idolizing that team. It was actually the pending introduction of the NHL's salary cap that made me realize how low of a priority winning was to ownership at the time given the financial might of the Leafs. I didn't plan for it and there was no boycott, but eventually, once I realized they didn't care, I stopped caring too.

That is what I'm reminded of when I think of this offseason so far.
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TangledUpInBlue - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 05:49 AM EST (#316603) #
and looking at it I don't think that it is even better than the staff that weren't good enough to even be A.L. Champs

1. The 2015 staff, though, was plenty good enough to win the World Series. Reverse those two ridiculous strike calls and it may well have happened.

2. I agree that the 2016 staff, barring a big addition, will be worse -- come playoff time. Stroman should make more starts in the 2016 regular season than he and Price combined for in 2015, and with the rest of the rotation looking solid enough, this year's staff might pitch better than last year's. Who knows. But once the playoffs start, the 2015 rotation is looking much better than the 2016 rotation. (Yeah, sure, we might make another deadline addition, but he won't be as good as Price.)
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scottt - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 08:11 AM EST (#316604) #
The point is that if you can sign a guy who could give you 3-5 WAR this year and it costs you a draft pick that shouldn't be a big factor in the signing as odds are high that the pick won't ever give you that, let alone in a contending year.

That's always true because the top picks are protected.

Aren't the Jays limited on what they can spend on the International market? They are not going to spend much on signing prospects either, so this should be the year to overspend on the payroll.
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Mike Green - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 09:27 AM EST (#316605) #
Taking Shapiro at his word that he has a payroll increase in his back pocket, there is a move that I would love to see him make- double down on the offence and defence by making a play for Jason Heyward.  I have this vision of an outfield of Pompey, Pillar and Heyward with Bautista at first base and Colabello backing up.  It sure would be nice to have a left-handed bat to break up Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion, Tulowitzki, Martin.  Heyward might also be a reasonable or better long-term asset.  The up-front cost might not be too large if you part with Revere and back-load the contract some.
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Nigel - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 10:34 AM EST (#316606) #
Mike, that's the move that I have liked from the start given what top tier starters are making. However, I believe people have misunderstood Shapiro's budget comment. He said that they have approved an increase and that was manifest. I believe that to mean that they have approved the increase in CDN dollars. Holding the payroll steady at US $140 m required an increase in CDN dollars. I do not believe there is much more money to be spent. Maybe enough for someone like Mark Lowe.
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China fan - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 10:42 AM EST (#316607) #
"....had Shapiro gone to ownership and asked for a payroll increase?  “Yes, and that’s obviously happened,” he replied, without elaboration...."

This is a rather evasive answer (although Beeston used similar evasions).  We don't know if this means an actual increase in payroll, or just a currency adjustment or some similar accounting exercise. And if there is a payroll increase, is it a significant amount or a small percentage?  I guess we won't know for sure until the trade deadline in July -- have the Jays any additional payroll room to pick up a rental player for the playoff drive?  Until then, we reserve the right to be skeptical.
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China fan - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 10:44 AM EST (#316608) #
I wrote my last comment before I saw Nigel's comment, but I agree with him, that's definitely a possible scenario.
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Kasi - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 11:00 AM EST (#316609) #
Ask Dodgers fans how much postseason success a dominant rotation has given them. Or the Royals who had an extremely poor starting rotation last year and did just fine with it. There is more than one way to build a contending team, and building around offense and defense while having a league average starting rotation is perfectly fine given our payroll parameters. Glevin and SK are right in that this gives our youngsters time to grow and not having to make the jump from A ball to the majors.
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CeeBee - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 11:05 AM EST (#316610) #
Kasi, I don't always agree with what you say but I most certainly do with the post above.
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PeterG - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 11:35 AM EST (#316611) #
Agree with Kasi also.
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China fan - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 11:37 AM EST (#316612) #
Since I have so often disagreed with Kasi in the past, I feel obligated to record that I too am in strong agreement with his comment above.
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hypobole - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 11:58 AM EST (#316613) #
2 relievers signed today. Darren O'Day back with O's, 4 yrs/$31 million. Ryan Madson to the A's 3 yrs/ $22 million.

Both contracts blew way past any estimates I've seen.
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bpoz - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 12:27 PM EST (#316614) #
Agreed hypobole with you on the reliever contract value.
Lets assume for maybe 10 minutes that these GMs know a bit more with their staffs than we know with our staff of Bauxites behind us.

2 questions.

The Happ signing looks better. No? In 3 years we may say it was great. 20/20 and all that.

Who in our current pen is as good. I think Osuna & Cecil are. And Sanchez could be. I am basing this on each pitchers history of results. All 5 have good results.

Actually,if you compare Osuna and D Robertson, the W Sox closer, they look the same to me.
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John Northey - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 12:28 PM EST (#316615) #
jeez...suddenly the value of draft picks and young talent skyrockets. If non-closing relievers are getting $7-8 million a year then bullpens are about to get super-expensive. Forget about resigning Cecil next winter.

Madison missed 3 years before his comeback for KC last year, 1.7 bWAR but $7+ mil a year for 3 years? From the A's? At age 35? Weird.

O'Day I'd have loved to get. WAR over 2 each year for 4 years, injured, 2 more years over 2 over the past 7. Still he is entering his age 33 season and is a reliever where stats can go wonky year to year, it takes very little to switch from very good to blah.

Suddenly Osuna & Sanchez in the pen doesn't seem like as big a waste of resources... and the loss of Hendriks looks worse. Btw, Casey Janssen is a free agent. Maybe look to bring him back in a setup role after Washington bought out his 2016 option.
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 12:41 PM EST (#316616) #
When someone selectively uses examples/data they can make it support anything they want it to. Comparing the Dodgers' Rotation and the Royals' Rotation with their ability to play in the Postseason is inaccurate. The Los Angeles Dodgers had a great Rotation, above average, but not quite good enough Offense and a Bullpen that needed help. The Kansas City Royals had an above average-ish Rotation, a good enough Offense and a great Bullpen. Advantage K.C.

The Toronto Blue Jays are different. They have a world-class Offense that could still use upgrades. They have a stud Starting Pitcher who will not pitch in the Postseason and might not pitch past July due to innings limitations of some kind. Once he's gone, what's left isn't good enough, despite wishful thinking. Under no conditions does anyone want Drew Hutchison or Jesse Chavez in the Starting Day Rotation. And the bullpen, that's only 3/7th of an effective 'pen which needs to be better. Gibbons needs to be able to trust more than just three Relievers.

The money's not unlimited and pennies need to be watched closely or they might not get enough done.
The Rotation need a front-line Starter than can pitch with Stroman, but without his limits. He doesn't have to be great, just good enough. With that addition, you have 8 - including Hutchison, Chavez and Diamond. More here would help.
John Gibbons wants a LHP upgrade over Aaron Loup, someone to pitch like Cecil. Anything to add another trusted Reliever. I wouldn't mind resigning Mark Lowe, unless they can do better. Having two long men is an asset. They don't need to try and get that extra batter or extra inning out of a Starter when they have two people to go 2-3 innings often.
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bpoz - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 12:55 PM EST (#316617) #
Janssen's contract was 1 yr at $5 mil + an option. He probably gets 1 yr again, probably less money. LAD would be a good fit. Just another arm. They can afford it.

He also did not complain about his role last year.
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PeterG - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 01:31 PM EST (#316618) #
Janssen is no longer effective imo. Don't want him here.
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Kasi - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 01:41 PM EST (#316619) #
RichardSS I think you over estimate the Royals. They had a very poor rotation last year, grading out at 22 out of 30 league wide. That is not above average by any account. They had no one even close to the quality of Stroman. (Cueto was likely their best but he is not as good as Stroman) Their rotation is worse than the one we're going into 2016 with.

Blue Jays were exactly league average in starters at 15, and I don't see why they're any worse this year given a full season of Stroman. They likely won't be better either but they don't need to be. Keeping Osuna and Sanchez in the bp one more year also gives us more of a chance of having a dominant relief crew.

I also doubt Stroman has many inning limitations this year. At the worst it's something like Harvey where he doesn't go over 180 in the regular season. He will be pitching past July.

Also as we've seen lately here, pitching is expensive. The Happ deal is looking looking better and better every signing that comes up. It does leave me worried on picking up an impact reliever, maybe we'll just have to get lucky on reclamation projects. Also gives more reason to leave Osuna and especially Sanchez where they are, one because they did so well at it last year, two because the Jays are going for it this year and have no time to mess around and three given these reliever deals we likely can't afford to replace them with equal value players from FA.
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China fan - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 01:47 PM EST (#316620) #
Regarding the Jays bullpen composition for 2016:  can Mike Green explain why he sees Hutchison as a potential bullpen member in 2016, if Hutchison doesn't make the starting rotation?  I would have thought that Hutchison's stuff doesn't play so well in the bullpen -- and I believe this was the main reason why the Jays decided not to add him to the playoff bullpen in October, even when lesser talents such as Tepera were added.  If Hutch wasn't the right guy for a bullpen slot in October 2015, why would he be the right guy in April 2016?  But perhaps I am missing some data or evidence.

Personally I'd rather see Hutch stretched out in Buffalo if he doesn't crack the starting rotation in April.  But if the Jays feel that he's a good pitcher to be in the bullpen, it does reduce their need to acquire more relievers now.

On the other hand, if Hutch is in the bullpen, it almost certainly means that Sanchez or Chavez would be in the rotation, so he would simply be replacing an existing reliever.  He wouldn't be filling the obvious need that the Jays now have for another set-up man.

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eudaimon - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 01:51 PM EST (#316621) #
Madson for 22m makes me think Beane is losing it. The Billy Butler signing last year was even worse. To the surprise of no one, Butler made 10m last year clogging up the basepaths (it's kind of true in his case) and providing -0.7 WAR. And they have him for 2 more years.
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 02:00 PM EST (#316622) #
Kasi

If you would, could you explain to me how we get a full season out of Marcus Stroman. While he may have pitched 166.1 innings in 2014, a little thing like knee surgery limited him to just 34.2 innings last year. A full Season plus Postseason could be at least 220.0 or more innings in 2016. Considering he never wants to give up the ball, how do we keep him healthy?
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SK in NJ - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 02:24 PM EST (#316623) #
As far as innings limits, here is a snippet from the Star quoting Atkins:

“Every pitcher is different, every workload is different and you have to treat them that way,” he said. “I don’t think you can apply rules . . . across the board. You have to look at a pitcher’s workload, delivery, intangibles, their work ethic in strength and conditioning, their flexibility, put those into an equation and determine what’s best for that player moving forward. No hardline rules, no workload limits; everything’s a balance.”
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Kasi - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 02:32 PM EST (#316624) #
Because Richard last year when injured Stroman threw a lot. He was throwing again within weeks of surgery, working his way up from tossing to pitching as part of his rehab to simulated games to minor league games, if you add up all the "innings" he pitched last year it is likely equivalent to the innings he threw in 2014.

And it's easy to keep his innings down by occasionally pushing him back a day or skipping an occasional start. As for keeping him healthy, since last years injury was a freak accident I'm not terribly concerned about it.
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 02:52 PM EST (#316625) #
OK, Thanks.
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monkeyman - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 04:26 PM EST (#316627) #
" Shapiro made a big deal about the fact that they were able to sign Happ without losing a draft pick. I would have thought that this would be a relatively less important consideration at this point in the competitive cycle."

but it's shapiro's first year of a 5 year contract. he's going to want assets to work with in the back half of his contract.
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jerjapan - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 04:34 PM EST (#316628) #
Interesting, if slow, offseason thus far.  The Greinke deal seems to be at the heart of the conversation that's been going on around here for the past few weeks - spend money on a variety of players to build up the performance floor of the team, or spend at the top to secure elite talents?  Not that I'm a Dave Stewart fan, but he's spending lots of money on the rotation while leaving gaping holes in the middle IF and at least one OF corner. 

This contract should be a good test as to whether the big FA contract actually hamstrings performance for teams going forward - typically it's the Yanks / Dodgers / Sox  who sign these big deals and I feel that those org can swallow the losses without cutting back on the field.  You could argue the Yanks have been hamstrung but they are in such a unique position - even a 'slower' offseason like last year saw big contracts handed out to Headley, Miller and Gardner.  They've got 70 million coming off the books next year (assuming a buyout for CC), so this slow offseason could be just a one-year reset.

But for mid-tier teams like Miami with Stanton, Seattle with Cano or Cinci with Votto - are these teams held back by these contracts?  The Twins seems pretty limited with Mauer - better to have let him walk? 

And is Beane losing it or is this the new market for veteran relievers?  surely he got badly beaten on the Donaldson deal, Billy Butler was a head scratcher even before his terrible year, and I don't know what to make of their offseason thus far this year ...
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uglyone - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 05:01 PM EST (#316629) #
happy it's not us signing those rp. though i imagine we'll waste money on some rp not as good as hendrks in the end anyways.

and i agree with Mike that Hutch would be a good RP candidate. his heat would play up in the mid 90s and he could just focus on being a fastball slider guy, and be shielded from tough lefties. his starting career so far is reminiscent of Brett Cecil's at a similar point. that being said, he should be given SP chances still.


and I think all the worrying about innings limits is overblown. Stroman won't have any innings limits and i doubt any of sanchez or osuna would if starting, either.
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John Northey - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 05:29 PM EST (#316630) #
In spring I say stretch out as many guys as you can as potential starters. Cutting back in April is far, far easier than trying to stretch them out in April.
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monkeyman - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 05:47 PM EST (#316631) #
it will also make it easier to stretch them out in '17 when we will likely need them to be starters.
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 05:47 PM EST (#316632) #
Blue Jays start the Season April 4th-6th in Tampa Bay. They have early Off-Days on April 7th and 11th. They have a 6-game Home Stand April 8th - 14th, before heading to Boston for four games. The 5th Starter isn't needed until the 16th. You only need to make two decisions other than that. Who starts Game Two and who starts the Home Opener/Game Four?
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 06:06 PM EST (#316633) #
I wonder what Dave Stewart needs that the Jays can deal if he has extras in an area of the Teams needs, like relievers?
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 06:36 PM EST (#316634) #
Sportsnet: David Price's agent speaks, and it makes Rogers look extremely bad.
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King Ryan - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 06:44 PM EST (#316635) #
Reading this just makes my stomach turn. Yes, he's an agent, but just ...... ugh.
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Mike Green - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 06:55 PM EST (#316636) #
In answer to CF's question about Hutchison as a starter, I'd add the following points to those made by uglyone.  Pitchers generally do better as relievers than starters.  In Hutchison's case, his splits as a starter do suggest that the general rule would hold.  He's done very well against the first batter of the game- .232/.274/.312.  He's done much better the first two times through the order than the third.  He can be put in the low leverage long relief role, which will allow him to keep his entire repertoire while pitching in a relatively less pressured environment. 

It's not a huge deal whether someone like Chad Jenkins is in Buffalo starting and Hutchison is in Toronto in the long-relief role or vice-versa.  Personally, I tend to prefer having the better pitcher in the major league relief role. 

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Vulg - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 06:58 PM EST (#316637) #
Ask Dodgers fans how much postseason success a dominant rotation has given them. Or the Royals who had an extremely poor starting rotation last year and did just fine with it. There is more than one way to build a contending team, and building around offense and defense while having a league average starting rotation is perfectly fine given our payroll parameters. Glevin and SK are right in that this gives our youngsters time to grow and not having to make the jump from A ball to the majors.

Stating there are multiple ways to skin a cat is stating the obvious. The A's and Rays have done it even cheaper than the Royals and with different flavors. The Cards have for about $130M as well, on the strength of excellent pitching and defense. What Shapiro wants to do long term is not revolutionary. This misses the point entirely.

The core for 2016 had already been committed. Are you suggesting that adding a Zimmerman or a Lackey or any other 2nd tier pitcher to slot behind Stroman wouldn't help the Jays next year? This is what McCown was talking about - Rogers' refusal to a modest increase in payroll in the face of the tremendous on and off field success the team experienced last year for next season. Even I will admit that the pending contracts of Jose, EE and Donaldson are going to become untenable beyond that.

If Shapiro/Rogers wants to establish "long term sustainability" (read: cheaper), I'm totally cool with that. However, I strongly disagree that they needed to start exhibiting this restraint next season; it's a jarring reversal to what AA/Beeston were building up towards.
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scottt - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 07:08 PM EST (#316638) #
That's pretty obvious  that he was really happy here.

Also, he must I thought that the Blue Jays would have have been interested in signing him since they traded for him in the first place.

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bpoz - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 07:11 PM EST (#316639) #
The winter meetings start at 8:00Pm. 1 hr. I expect very little to happen until Tue evening. Then a flurry or blizzard.
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scottt - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 07:21 PM EST (#316640) #
It's hard to imagine that Hutch doesn't start several games for the Blue Jays next year.
I'm not sure how easily he moves from starter to reliever, but he only threw 150 pitches last year.
Also, it depends on what's the next step for Hutch. If it's throwing his slider more, he can do that in the pen.
If it's working on his changeup or another pitch than he can't do that in the pen.

To me last year was the proof that framing is more an umpire stat than a catcher stat.
Hopefully Martin can put the knuckeball out of his head and put more work with his other pitchers.

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grjas - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 07:22 PM EST (#316641) #
The implications of the comments by Price's agent annoys me more than anything else this offseason. Sure it was sad to see AA go, but there are other GM's out there that can lead a team to the playoffs. In fact two dozen have done that in the last six years.

But this is the first time in 15 years that any top talent pitcher probably had the slightest interest in signing in Toronto. The fans are hungry and the team is a top pitcher a way from being a WS favourite. And by next year a tonne of salary commitments are off the books. Now was the time to strike. Instead we've shown not only the fans but next year's free agents how "committed" we are to winning.

It's bad enough that Rogers showed no marketing savvy at all by holding the line on this year's payroll, but the new regime showed no imagination in figuring out a way to finance a Price signing.

For example, I fail to believe they couldn't have traded Tulo for some top talent to enhance the minors, moved Goins to short, bought some cheap infield back up and used the 35mil from the Tulo trade and foregoing a Happ signing to pick up Price.

I don't know about you, but I would rather have Price, Goins and deeper minor league depth, than Happ and Tulo. No disrespect to Tulo, but with this lineup, we missed his defence when he was injured, not his bat. Goins can readily cover the D part.

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scottt - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 07:28 PM EST (#316642) #
and i agree with Mike that Hutch would be a good RP candidate. his heat would play up in the mid 90s and he could just focus on being a fastball slider guy, and be shielded from tough lefties.

Last year Hutch was better against lefties than righties. He throws his slider with sink against them so it's not a problem at all. Against right handed batter, he throws the slider with more lateral movement and uses it to setup his fastball.
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scottt - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 07:50 PM EST (#316643) #
John Gibbons wants a LHP upgrade over Aaron Loup, someone to pitch like Cecil.

I'm sure every manager would like to have a whole bullpen full of setup quality guys.
I don't see that happening. The Jays can certainly use another good reliever, but he doesn't have to be a lefty.

We have 3 candidates for a LOOGY going into spring training:
Loup, obviously.
Chad Girodo, who went to Arizona in the fall.
Pat venditte. The only switch pitcher I know of. He sidearms from both sides and throws mostly sliders.
He's been very good from the left side and very bad from the right in his first year with the As.

It figures that they could use him as a LOOGY in close game, and as a right handed pitcher in blowouts.

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uglyone - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 08:00 PM EST (#316644) #
Not surprised by his agent's comments.

it's beyond something to be angry about - it's just plain embarassing. we had the best FA actually WANTING TO SIGN WITH US for the first time in franchise history and we said why bother?

what a joke.
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bpoz - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 08:04 PM EST (#316645) #
I do not believe anything. There is too much sleaze out there.
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uglyone - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 08:04 PM EST (#316646) #
"it will also make it easier to stretch them out in '17 when we will likely need them to be starters."

p'shaw. we'll have stro happ estrada signed still and there's always more cutrate FAs to diversify our risk on instead of doing crazy things like playing our kids.
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uglyone - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 08:06 PM EST (#316647) #
great post, Vulg.

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uglyone - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 08:10 PM EST (#316648) #
"If it's working on his changeup or another pitch than he can't do that in the pen"

one of the pleasant things about last year was watching osuna dominate while still diligently working in and on his slider all year. it can be done.
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uglyone - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 08:12 PM EST (#316649) #
and a big "Like" to that post too, grjas.
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uglyone - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 08:16 PM EST (#316650) #
and man what a kick in the teeth for the rest of the stars on this team. none of these guys are re-signing with us now....but hey shapiro wouldn't re-sign them anyways.

Maybe shapiro will be so good that he can draft and trade for a core as good and affordable as bautista/ee/donaldson/tulo/martin/price/stroman in 5-10yrs from now. anyone want to lay any money on that?

good luck, shap.
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bpoz - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 08:50 PM EST (#316651) #
We are all in "win now" mode for 2016. Bauxites, fans and FO. No secret.

For 2017... Go ahead and speculate for any that want to. But!!! Stuff will definitely happen. Positive and negative.

Too much unknown.

But the known is that we will lose a lot of talent to FA at the end of 2016 unless resigned. The $ commitment will also drop.
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SK in NJ - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 08:52 PM EST (#316652) #
"2013 was your Diversified Risk strategy, through and through."

Yeah, I don't think you know what diversifying risk actually means.

Without making a long post about it because it has been discussed enough, what part of trading Yunel Escobar (1/5 guaranteed with two team options worth 2/10) and Adeiny Hechavarria (six years of control left) for Jose Reyes (guaranteed 5/96 left at age 30) is diversifying risk? How is spending $90M more guaranteed while reducing the infield depth on the team a way of reducing risk by investing in a greater quantity of assets? That doesn't make sense.

Diversifying risk in 2013 would have been keeping the roster together and spending the increased payroll on Ervin Santana, Bartolo Colon, and other cheaper options for the rotation rather than signing one starter for the bulk of the payroll increase or trading assets for very expensive options that tie up current and future payroll. I mean, the Jays started the season with six projected starters, and that was AFTER they traded a Brinks truck worth of prospects and increased payroll by a metric ton.

I can't stress enough that NOTHING done by AA from 2013-15 even remotely resembles diversifying risk. The difference between 2013 and 2015 was AA acquired much better players in 2015. The approach was the same.
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uglyone - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 09:07 PM EST (#316653) #
please explain to me how this was a "stars and scrubs" roster


SP Johnson 13.8
SP Buehrle 12.0
SP Morrow 8.0
SP Romero 7.8
SP Dickey 5.2
SP Happ 3.7

RP Janssen 3.9
RP Oliver 3.0
RP Santos 2.8
RP McGowan 1.5
RP Rogers 0.5
RP Cecil 0.5
RP Delabar 0.5
RP Loup 0.5



SS Reyes 10.0
LF Cabrera 8.0
RF Bautista 14.0
DH Lind 5.2
1B Encarnacion 8.0
CF Rasmus 4.7
3B Lawrie 0.5
C Arencibia 0.5
2B Izturis 3.0

UT Derosa 0.8
OF Davis 2.5
IF Bonifacio 2.6
C Thole 1.0

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John Northey - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 09:31 PM EST (#316654) #
Cot's has a nice feature listing payroll at the start of a season and at the end. They don't have the Jays end of season listed yet but start was $125,915,800 including Ricky Romero. Reyes & Buehrle were the $20+ mil, Bautista, Dickey, EE were $10+, Martin & Navarro both in the $5-10 range, over $1 but under $5 were Donaldson, Estrada, Izturis, Saunders, Cecil, Thole, Valencia, Smoak. The rest were ML minimum wage or close enough.

As of right now 2016: $20+ mil Tulowitski, $10+: Martin, Bautista, Dickey, Estrada, EE, Happ (safe to add Donaldson there once arbitration happens), $5-10: none yet (Revere), $1-4.9: Smoak (Chavez, Saunders, Cecil, Loup, Hutch), rest under $1 mil. $97 mil committed, BR estimates $139 after arbitration done if no other signings.

That means a payroll jump of $15 mil from last year in US dollars (add another $25 mil for Canadian roughly as our dollar has dropped around 15 cents over the past 12 months) and that means Rogers has opened their pockets a bit. Not as much as we'd all like them to have but it did open up.
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monkeyman - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 09:34 PM EST (#316655) #
tulo has a no trade and said he's happy not to worry about it. all this angst is crazy. this is the best team in MLB as it sits now!
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Parker - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 09:54 PM EST (#316656) #
Madson for 22m makes me think Beane is losing it.

I thought this too. I honestly had to do a double-take when I heard that Madson got a multi-year deal from Oakland. Just insane. In the past I've always given Beane the benefit of the doubt but I don't just have doubts here, I feel that they literally flushed that money down the toilet. And I was actually somewhat optimistic about the Butler deal.

Of course after saying this, Madson will probably go on to somehow post 6 WAR out of the bullpen in the next two seasons.
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Parker - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 10:04 PM EST (#316657) #
please explain to me how this was a "stars and scrubs" roster

They were sure paid like one.
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Kasi - Sunday, December 06 2015 @ 11:33 PM EST (#316658) #
Since two of the three best acquisitions in that list weren't even made by him (EE and Jose) I see some flaws in your statements. Martin and Tulo are also sorta yet to be written. Martin hardly had an insane year last year and I expect by the time he hits 20 million that he likely won't be worth it. Tulo it depends if we get the healthy one or not.

As for the agent deal, it's fairly unwritten but obvious there that he would have resigned if they had made the financial commitment. How much of a home town discount you think he would have given the Jays? Do you think he takes 7/175 to stay here? 7/190? Or is it most realistic to take that comment to say "if you matched what the sox had given we'd have accepted". Well duh, but guess what we couldn't afford him at that price given the holes that exist on this roster. We probably couldn't even do 7/190.

Also excellent points on the Canadian dollar and that payroll has risen, just not in obvious ways.

Also looking at that Cleveland roster leaves me pretty certain they can do the same. Remember they're on a 70 million payroll, basically half of ours. And they have Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar (a better top three than Price, Stroman and whomever we'd slot in as number 3) And Kipnis, Lindor, Brantley, Santana and Gomes is a pretty solid group of hitters. Imagine what they could add if they had 70 more million dollars. They'd be a lot better team than us.
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Vulg - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 12:26 AM EST (#316659) #
Jays on the verge of losing another valuable piece from their 2015 run in Marke Lowe: http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/report-mark-lowe-likely-to-leave-blue-jays-for-tigers/

So Rogers "can't afford" a tier 1 starter (Price, Greinke) and they won't pay for a tier 2 starter (Zimmerman et. all), but now it seems they are content to let their non-controllable bullpen be dissected by the likes of mid-market teams such as the Detroit Tigers.

Pathetic.

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Kasi - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 12:40 AM EST (#316660) #
Mike Illitch can do whatever the heck he wants. It's his own money. Mid market as no meaning there because he's been hell bent for years in trying to buy a title before he croaks of old age. If you want some billionaire to own the Jays and lose money on owning them than find someone to buy out the Blue Jays. Otherwise your points in n Detroit as a mid market team make no sense.
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scottt - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 12:55 AM EST (#316661) #
We are all in "win now" mode for 2016.

Are we? We seem to be into signing players for 17 and 18 at moderate cost.
I'm not expecting them to trade anybody at the deadline to improve the team.

Do you see any teams in the AL East that are not in a win now mode?
The Jays could be the least improved team in the division.
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Glevin - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 04:47 AM EST (#316662) #
"The core for 2016 had already been committed. Are you suggesting that adding a Zimmerman or a Lackey or any other 2nd tier pitcher to slot behind Stroman wouldn't help the Jays next year? This is what McCown was talking about - Rogers' refusal to a modest increase in payroll in the face of the tremendous on and off field success the team experienced last year for next season. Even I will admit that the pending contracts of Jose, EE and Donaldson are going to become untenable beyond that."


But that is the issue. You can't sign good players to one year contracts. So in order to compete for this year, you have to sign a five year contract with a player knowing the last couple of years at least are likely to be awful or trade most of the rest of your already pretty weak system to make it happen. Then, next year the same thing. If we want to compete, we have to re-sign/replace Bautista/Encarnacion, then we have to agree to another long-term contract which will be bad by the end of it. Then, what. In 2018 and beyond you are an expensive, old, and non competitive team. You can't have a one-year plan in management. You have to think 3 years, five years ahead and if you even think two years ahead then spending massive money to try to compete this year makes no sense.

(It also makes no sense from an odds level and this is something people don't seem to have caught up on. 1/3 of all teams now make the playoffs. The goal of teams should be and mostly is, to make the playoffs. Once there, anyone can win. You don't need to be an elite team to win. You are better served by being a good team for 5 years than an elite team for 2 and a mediocre one for three. The Jays ARE a good team and should make a playoff run. If they don't, it won't be because they didn't get an ace, it will be because something else went really wrong.)
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TangledUpInBlue - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 08:08 AM EST (#316663) #
Jays on the verge of losing another valuable piece from their 2015 run in Mark Lowe

Was he really that valuable? He was fine but he also supplanted Hendriks in a lot of situations and I don't think he was better.

We'll see how Shapiro et al. put together a bullpen, but so far I'm happy to see them staying away from the big contracts. Anthopoulos showed last year that you can construct a good bullpen at a cheap price (though he might have strayed from this in terms of prospects paid at the trade deadline). Economizing on the bullpen lets you spend on more important areas.
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Jevant - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 08:29 AM EST (#316664) #
I'm all for reasoned discussion/discourse, and difference of opinion, but it's kinda sad to see how negative this place has gotten recently.
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jensan - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 08:43 AM EST (#316665) #
The canard that Rogers cannot afford the increases in 2017 is a falsehood , unless the USD falls to .68-70.

If the the payroll, has to increase to $165 million , to cover the increases of Joey Bats, EE, Donaldson, Happ, Estrada and Martin, which indicates a $30 million increase with a decrease of 24 MM to cover replacements since Dickey, Thole, Chavez and Revere would not be back,, setting the payroll before new players to start at $146.MM.

Can Rogers afford this increase, ? Yes, the increase of another 8% in season tickets is to be expected , which covers $8 millions USD of the increase.

If Jays are successful and reach the playoffs in 2016, an another increase in attendance will be expected- as has occurred elsewhere. Let say a fan base increase of 200,000 for 2017 based a playoff run in 2016. This would provide an additional net revenue increase of 6.5 MM USD increase.
Additionally, the increase of funds from MLB Central through its various revenue streams projected by an additional $7 MM USD , this would provide an additional $22 MM to cover the projected payroll increase.
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John Northey - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 08:48 AM EST (#316666) #
I lost confidence in Lowe very quickly and I suspect the Jays did too. He didn't seem to do well here, might just have seemed that way after him blowing up in his first game and again in extras vs the Yankees.
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ComebyDeanChance - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 08:55 AM EST (#316667) #
The canard that Rogers cannot afford the increases in 2017 is a falsehood , unless the USD falls to .68-70

If the USD falls to .68-70 it will mark America's complete repudiation of the metric system.
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ComebyDeanChance - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 09:12 AM EST (#316668) #
Yes, the increase of another 8% in season tickets is to be expected , which covers $8 millions USD of the increase.

Wow! Those are some kickass expensive season's tickets. I'm intrigued to see the math on that one.

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uglyone - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 09:45 AM EST (#316669) #
I wouldn't have signed Lowe. His great year last year is another of countless examples why you don't need to spend money on rp.
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Dave Till - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 09:51 AM EST (#316670) #

Reading this just makes my stomach turn. Yes, he's an agent, but just ...... ugh.

Meh. I believe that Price would genuinely have liked to return to Toronto, but he would not have signed here unless the Jays made the highest bid. In other words, more than seven years and $217 million (or more than what Boston would have raised the offer to).

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uglyone - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 09:54 AM EST (#316671) #
"But that is the issue. You can't sign good players to one year contracts. So in order to compete for this year, you have to sign a five year contract with a player knowing the last couple of years at least are likely to be awful or trade most of the rest of your already pretty weak system to make it happen. Then, next year the same thing. If we want to compete, we have to re-sign/replace Bautista/Encarnacion, then we have to agree to another long-term contract which will be bad by the end of it. Then, what. In 2018 and beyond you are an expensive, old, and non competitive team. You can't have a one-year plan in management. You have to think 3 years, five years ahead and if you even think two years ahead then spending massive money to try to compete this year makes no sense. "

I highly doubt we'd be uncompetitive in 2018 just because a couple big bats had hit the 35yr old mark, or because we decided to let a DH go.
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Jevant - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 10:12 AM EST (#316672) #
http://andrewstoeten.com/2015/12/07/david-price-agent-makes-us-talk-again/

Be frustrated with Rogers all you want. But to for some reason transfer that onto Shapiro/Atkins seems just plain silly to me.
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ayjackson - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 10:19 AM EST (#316673) #
I don't get it. 50% of people seem to believe you can get enough value out of the front end of a Price contract to stomach the back end, 50% don't. Jays FO don't. So what? Why begrudge them for calling heads instead of tails?
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Jevant - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 10:30 AM EST (#316674) #
You could make an argument (it's not perfect, but you could make it) that 28 other front offices agreed with the Jays.
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John Northey - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 10:59 AM EST (#316675) #
Given the US is increasing interest rates and Canada isn't plus oil keeps dropping as OPEC has fallen apart suggests we should expect a 68-70 cent dollar and I'm certain Rogers is 100% aware of that. Yes, hedging helps but it doesn't magically make Rogers operate at a 1-1 ratio of US to Canadian dollars.
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TangledUpInBlue - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 11:05 AM EST (#316676) #
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-zips-projections-toronto-blue-jays/

FanGraphs has Toronto's ZiPS projections for 2016 available now. The hitting looks good and the pitching less good, though for various reasons I don't think the system works well for Estrada, Dickey, and Stroman. The first two because they outperform their xFIP (let's hope that's the case with Estrada; certainly it is for Dickey), and Stroman because he was injured (the system wouldn't know why).

Happ's projection is for 1.3 WAR:

The terms offered by Toronto suggest implicitly that the club believes Happ will retain some of the excellence he exhibited in Pittsburgh. Like most algorithms, the ones which inform ZiPS are skeptical about a pitcher replicating a brief spell of greatness given the burden of a longer spell of mediocrity.
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uglyone - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 11:11 AM EST (#316677) #
iwakuma gets a tiny bit more than happ. frustrating.
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John Northey - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 11:17 AM EST (#316678) #
A few oddities in those FanGraphs projections...
Pompey listed as a negative on defense...really?
Hawkins, Buhrle, Hague, and Navarro are all listed as Jays still. I know they say they list guys who aren't signed with their last team but Navarro has signed, Hague is in Japan and Hawkins is retired whiel Buhrle is 99% retired.
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Mike Green - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 11:18 AM EST (#316679) #
Warning about the ZiPS projections: the defence projections are very rough.  Dwight Smith with much greater defensive value than Dalton Pompey?  Nope.  Ryan Goins with significantly less defensive value than Munenori Kawasaki?  I don't think so.
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Glevin - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 11:23 AM EST (#316680) #
"I highly doubt we'd be uncompetitive in 2018 just because a couple big bats had hit the 35yr old mark, or because we decided to let a DH go."

The Jays are losing something like 11 WAR off of last season's teams after 2016 but that's not the only reason. When you have a team built around players in their 30's, the chances of injury, massive drop-off, steady decline, increase every year and in three years having at least one of those situations is almost inevitable. Look at the Yankees for what happens if you build teams around expensive older players (and they have a lot more money) Teixera, Sabathia, ARod, Beltran, and Ellsbury were all elite players. They combined for 8.6 WAR last season while making around $104M. The year before they combined for a WAR of around 4.4 for around the same money. They almost certainly be worse this next year because they are older. This is just what happens when you build teams around older players.
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Gerry - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 11:43 AM EST (#316681) #
I started a winter meetings and ZiPS thread.
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uglyone - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 12:13 PM EST (#316685) #
"The Jays are losing something like 11 WAR off of last season's teams after 2016 but that's not the only reason."

Yes, and are losing something like $100m off last year's payroll, too.


"When you have a team built around players in their 30's, the chances of injury, massive drop-off, steady decline, increase every year and in three years having at least one of those situations is almost inevitable. Look at the Yankees for what happens if you build teams around expensive older players (and they have a lot more money) Teixera, Sabathia, ARod, Beltran, and Ellsbury were all elite players. They combined for 8.6 WAR last season while making around $104M. The year before they combined for a WAR of around 4.4 for around the same money. They almost certainly be worse this next year because they are older. This is just what happens when you build teams around older players."

we'll ignore that the Yanks made the playoffs last year, of course. not to mention keep destroying all the projections of their imminent aged collapse.

but nobody is asking the jays to pay $50m to 38 and 39yr olds like arod and beltran, anyways.
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James W - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 01:17 PM EST (#316694) #
I believe CBDC was simply mocking your verbiage, when you previously said the USD was falling to 68-70 cents.
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jerjapan - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 02:25 PM EST (#316709) #
Since two of the three best acquisitions in that list weren't even made by him (EE and Jose)

Kasi, this is a misrepresentation.  I've stated this numerous times, but it was AA's trade for Bautista, JPR simply rubber stamped it.  That's exactly the sort of deal a GM often delegates to his employees - a waiver wire fringe pickup. 

I know you are a big believer in value contracts, so even if you refuse to give AA credit for Jose, the contract AA signed him to was arguably a bigger win than the trade anyway - same with EE's contract.  And of course it WAS AA who re-acquired EE - after losing him on waivers to the As, who non-tendered him. 
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Dewey - Monday, December 07 2015 @ 03:35 PM EST (#316723) #
Mike Illitch can do whatever the heck he wants. It's his own money. Mid market [has] no meaning there because he's been hell bent for years in trying to buy a title before he croaks of old age.

Ah, Kasi, you do have an elegant turn of phrase!
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