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"New York is thata way, man."

"Thanks kid!"





After a successfully high-flying three game set versus the Red Sox, the Bluebirds roll out the (un)welcome mat for another harsh division rival, the Yankees. New York, who lost 2 of 3 to Toronto less than a week ago, just won 2 of 3 themselves against the Rays in Tampa. Their Sunday victory was especially noteworthy, winning 2-1 despite registering only one hit the entire game (a two run homer naturally, off the bat of Starlin Castro). With that in mind, I'd still like our chances if we only cough up a single hit in each game. Probably.

Pitching Matchups


MON 7:07
-- Nova (3-2, 3.65) v. Estrada (2-2, 2.76)
TUE 7:07 -- Sabathia (3-3, 2.83) v. Happ (6-2, 3.20)
WEDS 7:07 -- Tanaka (3-0, 2.89) v. Sanchez (4-1, 3.29)

Injury Report

The last time I did one of these for the Yankees was six days ago, so nothing has really changed. Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira have missed some time with back and neck soreness respectively, or Old Man Ailments(TM). Right, right? Not really. Get outta here, lazy joke!

Joe The Lion

I'll admit to having a certain inclination towards rooting for Rule Five guys on the Blue Jays. The first one of those I can remember (in my relatively brief span of following the team) is Corey Thurman, a changeup overdosing reliever whose 4.37 ERA and 45 walks in 68 innings was entirely acceptable for the smouldering disaster that was the 2002 pitching staff. In 2003 we got the "is he actually 28?" Aquilino Lopez, who was actually pretty good that year (14 unscary saves, if I recall) and then not so good onwards. Next up was Jason Smith in 2007, an AAAA infielder type whose only appeal must've been a home run swing (without actually hitting home runs). Pitcher Randy Wells was the next one, pitching one scoreless inning as a Blue Jay before being returned to the Cubs and eventually having a short run as a decent innings muncher there. What did he do during that one appearance to get himself sent back? Tell John Gibbons a tasteless redneck joke? Put Vernon Wells' head in the Shine-o-Ball-o?

Alex Anthopoulos didn't seem to care much for the Rule Five Draft, as his teams not even once carried a Five Guy out of spring training. So now in Mark Shapiro/Ross Atkins' first year we have Joe Biagini, who thus far has impressed us all with both his arm and his charm. Watching Biagini pitch is an odd experience for me, it's like I forget he's actually a big league pitcher and so get really nervous for the first batter. "Oh-no, he's gonna get eaten alive! This isn't open mike night at Second City, this is the big leagues! Oh, he struck him out." I really like Biagini a lot (for his arm and his charm) and hope he can keep this going. I still think Dave Till's line about him nails it: "He's just goofy enough not to know he's supposed to be scared out there."


Be nice to win a few.

May 30-June 1: The Empire Strikes Back | 109 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Dave Till - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#323934) #

I still think Dave Till's line about him nails it: "He's just goofy enough not to know he's supposed to be scared out there."

Nice line, but I can't take credit for it - I didn't write it. :-)

pooks137 - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#323936) #

I still think Dave Till's line about him nails it: "He's just goofy enough not to know he's supposed to be scared out there."

Nice line, but I can't take credit for it - I didn't write it. :-)

I think it was Dan Shulman whom made this assessment on the TV broadcast (last week or two weeks ago maybe?) when Biagini came into the game as a thinly veiled politically correct comment on how weird Biagini is.

Magpie - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#323941) #
I'll admit to having a certain inclination towards rooting for Rule Five guys on the Blue Jays.

Us old folks have very mixed feelings about them. Pat Gillick loved the Rule 5 draft, and loved nothing better than handing his manager a roster containing a couple of passengers. For a pennant race. In the AL East. I'm sure it drove his managers crazy. Willie Canate, Lou Thornton, a teenaged Manny (before Manuel) Lee. On the other hand, it's how the team got George Bell, Wilie Upshaw, and Kelly Gruber. For nothing, essentially.
uglyone - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#323942) #
personally rule 5 guys upset me because it usually means carrying dead weight - but Biagini has impressed since day one of camp, so I love this kind of rule 5 guy.
whiterasta80 - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#323944) #
The rule 5 draft should always be used on someone in my opinion. There's a non-zero chance that the pick will just run with the opportunity and turn into significant value (i.e. Odubel Herrera, Johan Santana, Soria). Biagini might be the first case in decades of this happening for the Blue Jays.

That said, the rule 5 pick should also be returned about 95% of the time. Its going to be rare to see a player handle the bigs that quickly and then there's no sense tying a managers hands.
Jevant - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#323945) #
Paredes DFA'd to make room for Tepera.  Am I the only person who doesn't really understand they "why" behind this?
christaylor - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#323947) #
It is really is apples to oranges comparing rule 5 prior to 2006 to after given the one year added eligibility. The timing of the rule change in 2006 is kind of unfortunate. It would be interesting what today's analysts would be able to dig out if rule 5 players were one year younger.
jerjapan - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#323948) #
Paredes DFA'd to make room for Tepera.  Am I the only person who doesn't really understand they "why" behind this?

I'm guessing Paredes iron glove has something to do with it ... let's take it as a sign that the club isn't worried too much about Tulo's injury...

more likely, it's that Travis seems healthy, Barney looks to be able to handle short and Burns is solid AAA depth.

Tepera can crank it up and he looked solid last year - the org seems to believe in him as a cheap middle reliever who can ride the Buffalo shuttle. 
hypobole - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#323950) #
Tepera is just another bullpen arm not to trust.
jerjapan - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#323951) #
Based on what Hypobole?   Tepera's show a mid 90s FB since moving to the pen in 2013, has excelled over 3 years in the Buffalo pen since, and looked like a serviceable middle reliever last year in a much bigger sample size.  I'm not sure about this whole 'he's secretly a lefty killer' thing, but otherwise, he could be a solid, - and cheap - bottom of the depth chart guy pretty easily. 
Mike Green - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#323952) #
Goins/Barney is the double play combination du jour.
John Northey - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#323953) #
1985 was weird with 2 Rule 5 draft guys on the roster all year despite fighting for the division title. Manny Lee who was 20 that season (19 at the start of the season) and Lou Thornton who was 22. Yeah, the rules were quite different then as Lee had only played pro ball for 3 years when he was drafted. Just 43 PA despite being up all year and a 20 OPS+ luckily the Jays had Tony Fernandez playing his first full ML season and Damaso Garcia - two guys who never wanted a day off. Plus Garth Iorg had his best year by a mile that year and was mixed in at 2B now and then (163 innings).

Fun looking at Manny Lee's career again. He was done at 30 going 1 for 1 for St Louis while playing 2B. His first game in '85 he was a pinch runner for George Bell -weird as Bell was fast then (21-6 SB-CS in '85). He was the teams full time SS in 1992 for the first WS win but was a super-utility guy for the 1989 division title (10+ games at 2B/SS/3B/DH plus time in RF). He was a good backup.
JohnL - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#323954) #

I think it was Dan Shulman whom made this assessment

(Pinch hitting for Dewey here). Please don't be taken in by the heading at the top of each BBox page "The following comments are owned by whomever posted them..."

Should be "I think it was Dan Shulman WHO made this assessment..."

ComebyDeanChance - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#323955) #
Paredes DFA'd to make room for Tepera. Am I the only person who doesn't really understand they "why" behind this?

I was hoping for this yesterday before posting my comments about Gibbons use of Paredes on the weekend. It's not likely Tepera will have the effect on outcome that Paredes can have if he's put in the midst of the batting order in a tied game in extras. It handcuffs Gibbons in that respect. I'm not saying that's why this was done, but I thought yesterday that Gibbons can get up to a whole lot less mischief with an extra marginal pitcher than he can with an extra marginal fielder.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#323956) #
And the bullpen's wasted from extras, which is of course the thinking behind the move.
Mike Green - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#323957) #
You can be our Designated Dewey for the evening, JohnL, provided you agree not to drink and Dewey.
uglyone - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#323958) #
no complaints about the necessity of the move even though losing paredes would be a bit annoying, but i agree i've lost most my faith in Tepera at this point. he's mediocre in AAA, and aside from a little luck last year has been dangerously bad in MLB.

I'll say it again - Hutch should be in our bullpen.
John Northey - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#323959) #
Yeah, tonight it looks like the pen is gassed.
Girodo, 7 pitches yesterday, 12 in the last 5 days so he is OK
Loup: Just 9 pitches since being called up
Everyone else threw 14+ pitches yesterday with...
Storen at 31 over the last 2
Osuna must be sore by now throwing in 4 of 5 days.
Floyd 33 pitches the past 2 days 45 in the past 4.
Chavez 33 the past 2 days
Biagini 26 yesterday, 20 more 3 days ago

So yeah, help is needed. Not sure Tepera is the right help, but his last game was on the 28th (18 pitches) so he should be OK for 2 innings if needed. Venditte last threw yesterday (29 pitches) thus why he isn't coming up this time.
scottt - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#323960) #
I think it's Barney's bat that pushed Paredes out.
scottt - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#323961) #
Tepera has a 3.57 ERA in Buffalo this year.  Loup didn't give a run in 3 games. Girodo is at 1.06 after 6 games. The only good thing I can say is Jenkins and Shultz have been worse.
scottt - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#323962) #
Colt Hynes has been decent with a WHIP of 0.89  in 9 inning, but he's not on the 40.
Too bad, can never have too much LHP against the Yankees.

JohnL - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#323963) #

You can be our Designated Dewey provided you agree not to drink and Dewey.

I won't try to pitch hit for Dewey AND MyLegacy

uglyone - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#323964) #
my boy Goins getting it done.
Magpie - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#323965) #
[Lee] was a super-utility guy for the 1989 division title (10+ games at 2B/SS/3B/DH plus time in RF

My memory tells me that Lee was part of a very weird platoon arrangement in 1989: weird because nobody platoons at second base, and weird because both players (Lee and Nelson Liriano) were switch-hitters and Liriano didn't really have a platoon split. But that arrangement only took hold in the second half. Lee spent April filling in for Fernandez at short, spent May on the DL, and spent most of June filling in for Gruber at 3B.

He made a cameo appearance in the outfield during that strange mid-season interval when the team was carrying more catchers than outfielders. Yes, they really did that.
scottt - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#323966) #
Loup wasted 16 pitches, but Storen only needed 8.

Still hard to feel good about this bullpen.

Maybe down the line, they could sell high on Barney and upgrade a reliever?

Mike Green - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#323967) #
Never get complacent.  I foolishly thought that it was safe to follow the game on Gameday with the Jays leading 4-0 going into the ninth.  I reconsidered after Teixeira's double, figuring that Storen needed all the support, defensive and moral, that he could get.

Estrada gave them 8 shutout innings when they needed it most. It sets up the rest of the series nicely.  I wonder what the double play combination will be for the next two games- my bet: Barney/Travis against Sabathia, followed by Goins/Travis against Tanaka (behind Sanchez).  It's helpful that the better handedness matchups coincide with the better fielder supporting the groundballer.

John Northey - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#323968) #
Watching on gameday while also watching my daughter play soccer (she scored again) was entertaining. Seeing Estrada getting through inning after inning without allowing a run and keeping the pitch count down was fantastic. He did what the Jays needed him to do - eat a lot of innings. Nice to see Storen get a save too, even if he was scary doing it.
uglyone - Monday, May 30 2016 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#323969) #
Marco was really good last year.

This year he's just awesome.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 07:20 AM EDT (#323970) #
Estrada has been great this season. His K% has increased while he's been able maintain (or better) the weak contact that made him so good last season. Everyone, including myself, expected a regression from him, but so far he actually looks better. Good sign.
hypobole - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#323971) #
"Based on what Hypobole? Tepera's show a mid 90s FB since moving to the pen in 2013, has excelled over 3 years in the Buffalo pen since, and looked like a serviceable middle reliever last year in a much bigger sample size. I'm not sure about this whole 'he's secretly a lefty killer' thing, but otherwise, he could be a solid, - and cheap - bottom of the depth chart guy pretty easily."

Not the first time we've disagreed, with you having a much more upbeat and optimistic view of Blue Jays (and maybe life in general). It certainly seems my level of trust is different than yours.

Tepera is a mediocre arm or as you said,"cheap - bottom of the depth chart guy". To me, he hasn't shown anything more.
Dave Till - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#323972) #
I tend to be a pessimist by nature, so I was convinced that Storen was going to blow the save. I'm happy to be proven wrong. Martin and Storen discovered that Chase Headley couldn't hit Storen's breaking pitch, so he kept throwing it. Why not?

The Jays' bullpen problems have been compounded by their schedule. Games against AL East teams so far this year:

Toronto 30
Tampa Bay 24
Boston 23
Yankees 22
Baltimore 15 (!!)

Games total so far this year:

Toronto 53
Boston 51
Yankees 50
Baltimore 49
Tampa Bay 49

When the Jays are getting more off days and playing out of the division, life should be easier for them.
Cracka - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#323973) #
Estrada's opponent's slash line is now .177/.258/.300... the lowest BAA in the AL and impressively the 5th lowest SLG% against, which has always been Estrada's downfall (due to his HR rate). He's done this without Navarro, who apparently wasn't quite as important to Estrada's success as some thought.

I've pointed out in the past that Estrada's career has been marked by extreme monthly variances: April & May have been historically bad, August & Sept have been outstanding. The most encouraging thing is that we're seeing "late season" Estrada now and he has a history of improving as the season goes on, rather than fading.

His 2/$26 contract looks like it will be a fantastic deal for the Jays.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#323974) #
the biggest difference for estrada is that he's throwing more cutters than last year (at the expense only of fastballs, with curve and change frequency maintained). Of course there's a chance that this is just a better version of a particular cut fastball.

either way, it's significantly upped his groundball rate to still low but not ridiculously low level like last year, and made him less of a flyball guy. He's also upped his Ks butbthat has come with more walks too - but still an improvement there too.

That's why this year's era comes with a pretty darn good fip as well. the xfip still isn't great but at least there we can make a non-homeristic argument that his stuff produces a lot of borderline flyballs that just aren't the kind of contact that will produce homeruns, regardless of luck.
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#323975) #
Here is the coolest pitch I've seen in a long time. One left turn and one right turn in the 60 feet from the pitcher's hand to the plate.  Absolutely unhittable. 
uglyone - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#323976) #
that looks like the dickey we traded for :(
jerjapan - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#323977) #
that pitch was wild - unhittable indeed.

Reminds me of some of the swings the Yanks were taking against Stieb back when he was gunning for the perfect game. Ken Phelps was the second K in the 9th and takes the worst swing I can remember seeing anyone take.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7YmH22jNFQ
China fan - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#323978) #
".....Everyone, including myself, expected a regression from him...."

Some people, like me, expected a little bit of regression from Estrada, since his numbers last year were so excellent.  But let's be honest here:  some fans expected a LOT of regression from him, and some disliked the decision to bring him back on a $26-million two-year contract.  Those predictions and criticisms have been proven wrong, unless Estrada suddenly implodes in the rest of the season.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#323979) #
http://i.imgur.com/dCmvK7c.gif

:(
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#323980) #
A couple of tidbits courtesy of the fangraphs' Base Run standings:
  • it is good luck to win 5 of every 7 games as the Cubs have been doing- a winning percentage of .714  (it's not possible to do it in a 162 game season, but you can if you win 115 of 161 games)
  • the Blue Jays have been somewhat inefficient on offence (yesterday's game would provide a few examples) and defence (here's looking at you in the pen); aside from the inefficiencies, they have not been playing significantly worse than any clubs other than the Red Sox or Cubs

The AL now leads the NL 42-41 in interleague and has outscored them 394-371.  I expect those margins to increase significantly as the season goes on.  The Blue Jays do play in the tougher league (and the toughest division in that league). 

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#323981) #
Michael Saunders  has faced C.C. Sabathia 18 times, he's 1-17 with an HBP and 9 strikeouts.  It wouldn't surprise me to see Zeke get another start.
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#323982) #
The batting order for tonight goes: Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnacion, Smoak, Martin, Travis, Pillar, Barney, Carrera.  I'm not keen on Smoak batting cleanup against a lefty; it would be a good time to put Travis at the top of the order and move the RH sluggers in a more conventional spot. 
China fan - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#323983) #
Jays acquire reliever Jason Grilli from the Braves, in exchange for someone named Sean Ratcliffe.
Noah - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#323984) #
Jason Grilli is on his way to the Blue Jays. Hopefully the cost is pretty low given his struggles this year, although some of those may be chalked out to a terrible Braves team behind him.

Regardless, you'd have to think he at least brings something to the table for the back of the bullpen. This year's Latroy Hawkins?
China fan - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#323985) #
Ratcliffe, a RHP who hails from Ajax, Ont., was an 18th-round draft choice in 2013 and pitched for Vancouver last year.
Alex Obal - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#323986) #
Jason Grilli is one of seven active pitchers in MLB who have started at least one game against the Montreal Expos.
China fan - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#323987) #
I presume Ratcliffe is in extended at the moment, or else is injured, because I don't see any 2016 stats for him in Baseball Reference.

Anyway it seems to be mostly a salary dump by the Braves, and they'll chip in on his salary.  Will be interesting to see how much of his $3.5-million salary the Jays will be paying this year.  He also has a $3-million team option for 2017 and a $250,000 buy-out.

China fan - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#323988) #
If this is the 2015 version of Jason Grilli, it's a good pick-up by the Jays.   If it's the 2016 version, maybe not so much.   His 12.2 K/9 looks good, but the 6.9 BB/9 is rather worrying.

Optimistically, maybe he just didn't like pitching for a very bad team this year.   Maybe he'll perk up on a more interesting team.
hypobole - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#323990) #
Sadly, the current Grilli will fit right in with our bullpen.
Vulg - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#323991) #
The cost seems low and worth the risk that the Jays would get "good" Grilli and not "career done" Grilli.

One thing I'm not a big fan of is hearing about these "nearly done" deals. The Saunders/Bruce thing fell apart a little too publicly for my liking and I'm always wary of negotiations playing out in the media before they are truly final.
James W - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#323993) #
MLBTR says the Jays are paying the pro-rated minimum ($344K) and the potential $250K buyout for next year. Braves will pay the remaining $2.37 million.
katman - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#323994) #
Basically, we got another Drew Storen. Fastball velocity down over 2 mph from 2015, control decline too, ground ball rate has hit an all-time low of 18.9%. ERA 5.29 and walks high in 2016.

Achilles tendon injury ended his season in 2015.

Unless the Jays have a specific reason to believe they can fix this guy, giving Grilli a roster spot looks like an absolute negative - never mind salary or prospect issues. This is not the solution we've been waiting for.
hypobole - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#323995) #
Don't know if anyone else had this thought last night, but when Loup's pitch hit Beltran my initial thought was "That didn't take long"

Loup last year hit 6 of the 186 batters he faced (and if memory serves me correctly, at inopportune times) about 1 of every 30 batters. Dickey and Hutch each hit 11, Dickey 1 of 80 BF, Hutch 1 of 60 BF, Estrada only hit 5 of 725.
China fan - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#323996) #
"....One thing I'm not a big fan of is hearing about these "nearly done" deals....."

Apparently the delay is because MLB must approve the financial side of the deal, with the Braves paying the bulk of Grilli's salary.  It's not a situation (like the Jay Bruce deal) where a key player has a health issue and can be vetoed by a medical check.

uglyone - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#323997) #
can't complain about getting him for free. he's exactly the type of arm i'm always in favor of picking up for cheap innthe offseason.

hopefully he's just working his way back to full health and still has something left.
scottt - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#323998) #
Grilli might not be better than Storen, Floyd and Chavez, but that's still better than Tepera or Venditte.
China fan - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#323999) #
"..... he's exactly the type of arm i'm always in favor of picking up for cheap in the offseason....."

Although in the off-season he would have cost $3.5-million.
China fan - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#324000) #
"....Basically, we got another Drew Storen....."

A couple of months ago, this would have been a compliment.  Now -- not so much.
eudaimon - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#324001) #
I love Edwin but he is sloooowwwwww

Way to go Smoak!

uglyone - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#324003) #
high priced bullpens ain't all that.
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#324004) #
You do not want to play Rob Refsnyder in right field...ever.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#324005) #
Grilli isn't a bad guy to take a chance on. He's old and has some red flags (velocity, walk rate, etc), but it didn't cost much in terms of money/prospects and he was very good last season. I'd rather have him than Tepera, Venditte, Girado, etc, types.

Barney continues to be a good signing. So refreshing to see him get rewarded with playing time over Goins, who has been a major black hole this season (last game aside).
uglyone - Tuesday, May 31 2016 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#324007) #
17-12 in May. 95 win pace. That's better.

but the bats really haven't woken up yet. and they will.
China fan - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 06:36 AM EDT (#324009) #
"....the bats really haven't woken up yet..."

The bats aren't as overwhelming as last year, but they are still quite good.  Much better than they were earlier in the season, anyway.  Four of the regulars, plus two of the back-ups, each have an OPS of .800 to .900 for the season.  Then there's Encarnacion, who has an OPS of .812 over the past month.  Then there's 2B where the combination of Travis and Barney is likely to be productive.  (Travis hasn't really begun hitting strongly yet, but I think it's pretty likely that he will.)  Then there's Russell Martin whose OPS is over .900 in the past 10 games.  Then there's SS where Tulo had an OPS of .928 in the two weeks before his injury.  That leaves only Kevin Pillar, whose season OPS of .642 is acceptable for a premium defensive CF.  So there's really no black holes any more, and there's still room for improvement too. 

I realize that it sounds rather lame to say that the Jays were victims of bad luck in the early part of the season, but there is some statistical evidence to support it.  John Lott makes the case in this analysis, which looks at BABIP and hard-contact rates:  https://sports.vice.com/ca/article/blue-jays-struggling-offence-plagued-by-bad-luck
92-93 - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 08:12 AM EDT (#324010) #
That's one of way looking at it. Another would be to say that two of those 4 regulars, while having an OPS over .800, are underperforming their expectations (JD & JB), and that Encarnacion rebounding to an .812 OPS over the last month is simply not enough.

If Donaldson, Bautista, and Encarnacion don't pick up the pace, it's going to be very difficult for the Jays to win the division with the way Boston looks this year. I'm confident that each still has a monster stretch in front of them. The boys wanna get paid.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#324011) #
The June 1 birthday team is notable for the Box. It's the b-day of Dean Chance and (your love is like) Brad Wilkerson. Good times.
Dave Till - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#324012) #

I don't expect much from Grilli, but he's low-risk, he's probably extremely happy to be away from Atlanta, and he'll have the Jays' defense behind him. You never know.

I love Edwin but he is sloooowwwwww

He used to be faster: in 2012, he stole 13 bases and was caught only three times. Father Time catches up to everybody.

China fan - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#324013) #
Jason Grilli's splits are worth noting.  Even this year, in a bad year, he is holding RHB to an OPS of .604, while lefties are hammering him to the tune of 1.057.   If Gibbons can keep him away from most LHB, he could be useful.

Also, for what it's worth, he's looked much better in his past 5 outings:  zero runs and 1 hit allowed in 4.2 innings.  Of course he did allow 4 walks in those 4.2 innings.  But he also managed 8 strikeouts.  The optimistic theory is that he improved in recent weeks because he's finally fully recovered from last year's injury.  The pessimistic theory is that he's still walking far too many batters.

hypobole - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#324022) #
There is an element of bad luck with our BABIP, but as Mr. Rickey said, luck is the residue of design.

Jays have the highest Pull% in the majors at 44.7%. We have 4 batters (JB, JD, EE and TT) with BABIP's ranging from .232 to 269. All 4 are pulling over 50% of their batted balls. They are also hitting Fly Balls (which are easiest to turn into outs), at rates ranging from 41.2-48.3%

For comparison, the Ray's 39.5 FB% leads the majors.
#2JBrumfield - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#324023) #
Here's a good story on Jason Grilli by the man himself on The Players Tribune.
Chuck - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#324025) #
That is a great essay by Grilli. Good to be reminded that these are real people.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#324031) #
paredes traded to phi for cash.

i'm a bit disappointed - he had a good chance of being a leaghe average bat for us off the bench. this might be showing too much confidence in zeke and barney's hot starts.
Spifficus - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#324032) #
Well, Zeke and Barney are both defensively capable replacements. Because of that, there wasn't currently a spot for Paredes. The cash considerations is just Philly's attempt to get to the front of the waiver line. I'd have preferred if he could have made it through waivers, too, though, to see if there was a position he could field competently, or at the very least to hang around until he was needed for another NL-park series.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#324033) #
yeah but i think there's room for one no-D bat on the bench (i.e. cola replacement).

now i'm guessing we stick with all of carrera barney goins thole for the season which imo isn't much bat off the bench, despite what they've done so far.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#324034) #
Girodo down for Grilli.  I would venture a guess that Tepera will go down for a bat after the Boston series.
williams_5 - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#324035) #
I noticed that at the bottom of that PT article was a link to this. Some interesting responses, including his favourite team growing up.
Michael - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#324038) #
There's a reason Toronto was his favorite team growing up.

http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/mlb/new-blue-jays-reliever-jason-grilli-carries-on-a-family-tradition-in-toronto

This seems like an excellent move considering Grilli rushed back a little too soon from Achilles surgery, then there is a better chance his struggles this year might be as much that as permanent decline. And at the cost seems well worth the risk, especially given the other relievers we have so far.
eudaimon - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#324039) #
Paredes is a project, and there's no room for him on this team. The fact that the Phillies traded for him meant he wasn't going to pass waivers anyways. His bat isn't a sure thing (looked good in 15 ABs or so this year, as well as last, but still struck out like 30% of the time so he might have been kind of lucky) so keeping him just for offense was a risky proposition considering his pretty terrible D. Good pickup, but not someone to cling to in a pennant race.

I like the Grilli trade. He might just suck, but there's a chance he won't. That's a good deal for the price. He'll be motivated, that's for sure.

scottt - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#324040) #
If a grilled cheese can cover an inning between a starter and Osuna's 9th, then I'm all for it.
scottt - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#324041) #
now i'm guessing we stick with all of carrera barney goins thole for the season which imo isn't much bat off the bench, despite what they've done so far.

Goins can be sent down. I was thinking that Barney could be a sell high trade later on but it's nice to have depth. I'm sure there's better options than Paredes if all you want is a DH.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#324042) #
man we are lining shots all over the field and they are just not falling. i think we're about to explode.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#324043) #
this is where sanchez' usage limits might hurt us - they never want him over 100 pitches....this might be the first time all year. i love the hard pitch limit for him but man it puts this game at risk.
Eephus - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#324044) #
The very first thing Jason Grilli does as a Blue Jay, before even throwing an official pitch, is throw the ball away. I wonder if that has ever happened before.

Good job getting the out though in a tight spot.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#324045) #
stir that pot, boys.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#324046) #
This was a good series.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#324047) #
Does Gibbons really use Sanchez any differently than he uses the other starters? He's pretty consistent in taking pitchers out between 95-105 pitches most starts, and Sanchez falls into that. His extreme GB rates just allow him to go deeper into games on lower pitch counts, much like Stroman.

If Sanchez was on a strict limit, he would not have started the 7th tonight. I think they'll probably just let Sanchez start like normal and then will adjust based on whatever happens (fatigue, performance, etc). That appears to be how they are handling him, at least.
Chuck - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#324048) #
That Yankee offense is just woeful. They are 0.01 R/G out of last place in the AL. And only 3 teams in the NL rank lower.
scottt - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#324049) #
Grilli only made one out, but a homerun there and I don't think we see Yates, Goody and Bleier.

There's nothing better than a divisional sweep.

scottt - Wednesday, June 01 2016 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#324050) #
They lost a huge piece when Greg Bird tore his labrum.

Arod and Tex looks done. Their best hitter is Refsnyder. Only him, Beltran and their backup catcher have an OPS above league average. They still have that great bullpen.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 02 2016 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#324055) #
The Yankee offence didn't look to me as bad as their runs scored and slash lines would suggest.  Like the Blue Jays early in the season, they seem to be hitting a lot of balls hard at people.  Brett Gardner has a BABIP of .246.  How does that happen?  They are definitely getting older, and with Bird, Sanchez and Severino all out, they have not had much luck this year.  They are the Yankees, so no one is weeping about it outside of the Tri-state area.

The Yankee defence looked particularly bad, and, if anything, worse than the numbers would suggest.  Tanaka pitched well yesterday, the Blue Jays hitters put in disciplined at-bats and relied on balls-in-play to score a couple of runs and get him out of there after 6 innings.  Yates is a good pitcher and was throwing well also, but the Jays did the same thing to him.

They are well set up for Boston with a rested pen.  The disciplined approach can lead to a good long-sequence offence in Fenway.  They are facing "the Price is Wright" to begin the series so sticking to the disciplined approach will not be easy.

uglyone - Thursday, June 02 2016 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#324056) #
no doubt there's a lot of bad luck in their offense. their .265 team babip is worst in baseball by a longshot, and worst in the AL by a country mile (19pts lower than the 2nd worst - your toronto blue jays).

that won't last.
China fan - Thursday, June 02 2016 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#324059) #
Darwin Barney now has 121 plate appearances as a Blue Jay over the past two seasons, and his slash line over that stretch is:  .336/.370/.496.  He will obviously regress to some extent at some point, but his hitting is looking a little less flukish now.  The middle infield was an offensive sinkhole for the Jays in April, but the Jays are in good shape now, with Barney, Travis and a resurgent Tulo to share those two positions, and with Goins as the elite defensive back-up.  Getting production from the middle infield is making a huge difference in lengthening the lineup.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 02 2016 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#324060) #
It might all be sample size issues with Barney, but it might not be.  His stat line with the Cubs in 2012-13 is a bit of a puzzle.  He didn't strike out much, he had some pop by that point (7 home runs each year), he hit a decent number of line drives (over 20% for the 2 years), hit the ball on the ground more than in the air, and didn't pop up much.  His slash line is very bad thanks to a BABIP of under .250 for the 2 years (over 1000 PAs).  His contact rates in 2012-13 were excellent, although he did swing at a few too many pitches outside the zone (and made contact with them too much).

So far in 2016, he's swung at somewhat fewer pitches outside the zone and missed significantly more on pitches in the zone but his rate of hard contact is up from a decent 20% to a very good 29%, and the line drive rate is up by a similar amount. His HR/fly rate is correspondingly up too.

In other words, he seems to be swinging harder than he was in 2012-13 and he could afford to do so.  He is doing that without chasing more pitches outside the zone.  A BABIP of .397 undoubtedly involves considerable luck, but there seems to be markers of a different approach (both objectively and subjectively) which should result in sustainable improvement.  For what it's worth, Barney's BABIP on ground balls so far in 2016 is .324 (high and probably with a luck element), on fly balls is .000 (bad luck) and on line drives is .727 (a little high). 

Youneverknow. Darwin freaking Barney.

uglyone - Thursday, June 02 2016 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#324061) #
My usual 2yr split plus this year spits out this:

Barney (30): 387pa, .295babip, 96wrc+, 4.5war/650pa

Nothing wrong with that from a starting middle infielder, let alone a backup.

And for what it's worth, Barney has gone on at length about how his apparent concerted attempt to change his approach into a more defensive slappy approach has been responsible for his improvement at the plate the last couple years.
uglyone - Thursday, June 02 2016 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#324065) #
For some reason the White Sox' starting staff has more fWAR but I can't understand why.

So far imo the Jays have clearly had the best starting staff in the AL:

IP/GS

1.TOR 6.5
2.CHW 6.1
3.CLE 5.9
4.SEA 5.9
5.TEX 5.9

ERA-

1.TEX 78
2.TOR 84
3.CHW 85
4.SEA 98
5.CLE 102

FIP-

1.TOR 93
1.CHW 93
1.NYY 93
4.CLE 96
5.TEX 102

And it looks mostly sustainable.

Happ looks like he's been lucky so far, Stroman unlucky so far, which should balance out.

Estrada of course is still a bit of mystery, but his babip suppressing ability seems legit at this point. But even then his FIP is really good this year unlike last year.

China fan - Thursday, June 02 2016 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#324070) #
Aaron Sanchez has now quietly moved into the top 10 in the league in ERA.  And he has drastically improved his performance against LHBs, his nemesis in the past.  His platoon splits have nearly evened out:  he's holding LHB to an OPS of .663, while holding RHB to a .593 OPS.   (Last year, lefties had a .878 OPS against him.)  So when the Yankees loaded up their lineup with 7 lefties last night, Sanchez was unfazed and held them scoreless. 

And he's still just 23.   We might have a phenom on our hands.

SK in NJ - Thursday, June 02 2016 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#324072) #
Barney's WAR from 2011 to 2014 were 1.6, 2.4, 0.2, and 1.2 respectively (he only had 30 PA in 2015). He's a good bench player, and a passable starting middle infield option. I have no issues with him getting PT. Him and Goins have similar skill sets, but Barney is so much better at maximizing it on the field.
uglyone - Thursday, June 02 2016 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#324075) #
Barney's 650pa WAR paces per year:

2010: 3.8fwar, 3.8bwar, 3.8avg
2011: 1.8fwar, 1.9bwar, 1.9avg
2012: 2.7fwar, 5.1bwar, 3.9avg
2013: 0.2fwar, -0.5bwar, -0.1avg
2014: 3.0fwar, 4.2bwar, 3.6avg
2015: 2.2fwar, 4.3bwar, 3.3avg
2016: 4.8fwar, 9.6bwar, 7.2avg

Career: 2.0fwar, 2.9bwar, 2.5avg

2war is usually considered a decent cutoff for legit starter quality.
pubster - Thursday, June 02 2016 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#324080) #
From 2014-2016 Barney only had about 350 ABs.

From 2011-2013 he had over 1500 at bats.

Hopefully UO didn't omit this information on purpose (because it is relevant)

=)
Mike Green - Thursday, June 02 2016 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#324081) #
Goins in his career is at 2.9 bWAR/650 and 0.4 fWAR/650.  If you take an average, he's a 1.7 WAR player- i.e. a fine platoon player (for his career he's at a .275 wOBA against RHP and .224 against LHP). 

In other words, as of right now, Gibbons has two good options against RHP and one good one against LHP.  Goins' 2016 offensive season is indeed very poor, but his .191 BABIP makes it look a lot worse than it has been. 

pubster - Thursday, June 02 2016 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#324083) #
So basically in years 2014-2016 UO took 350 at bats and extrapolated them to about 1950 at bats.

Barneys defence is so good that he has had a lot of value (a lot more than I would have thought) despite his below average offence.
uglyone - Thursday, June 02 2016 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#324084) #
here I thought I was correcting the omission of some info, pubster!

Yeah you're right about Goins, Mike - all I ever wanted coming into the season was for them to be in an even fight for playing time. I didn't want either to be handed a fulltime spot without earning it. There's nothing that says Goins can't get just as hot as Barney and vice versa going forward. I was just upset that we kept playing the crap out of Goins even though he was killing us.
pubster - Thursday, June 02 2016 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#324088) #
UO I read this thread with most recent posts showing first.

So I read your post BEFORE I read what it was in response to! (and of course I posted in between).
electric carrot - Thursday, June 02 2016 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#324093) #
so Tom Brady was _almost_ an Expo. 

http://www.boston.com/sports/new-england-patriots/2016/06/02/tom-brady-expos-anniversary


SK in NJ - Thursday, June 02 2016 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#324096) #
"And he's still just 23. We might have a phenom on our hands."


In terms of current performance, peripherals, and upside, he looks better than Stroman right now, and it doesn't look like a mirage either. He's striking guys out, improving his secondary stuff, getting more swings and misses, improving his command, etc, all while still maintaining an elite GB rate. He looks about as legit as can be. Keep improving the off-speed stuff and more importantly stay healthy, and he could be the ace of the staff.

The tricky thing will be his innings this season. Gibbons has not held back (he's using him no differently than anyone else on the staff), so he'll be up there in innings pretty soon. If he's still pitching this well into July, I don't see how the Jays can put him in the pen since he'll be the best SP on the team. They'll need to get creative. Maybe scale back a bit on the innings, more rest, have someone spot start every now and then, etc.
SK in NJ - Thursday, June 02 2016 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#324097) #
"In other words, as of right now, Gibbons has two good options against RHP and one good one against LHP. Goins' 2016 offensive season is indeed very poor, but his .191 BABIP makes it look a lot worse than it has been."


The 2nd half of 2015 version of Ryan Goins + Barney would definitely be a strong platoon, but I'm not convinced the non-2nd half of 2015 version of Goins presents any sort of improvement over Barney against either RH or LH. At worst, it's a wash against RHP, and Barney is clearly superior against LHP.

If Goins reaches his ceiling, he'll probably be Barney, and the Jays already have the real thing. I don't blame Gibbons for going with Goins to begin the year given how he ended 2015, but I'm glad he's stopped that experiment and gone with Barney more often. Once Tulo gets back, the Jays would benefit from demoting Goins and getting a better bench bat (not sure who is out there).
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, June 02 2016 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#324098) #
It's the eighth inning in Baltimore and Mookie Betts hasn't even hit one home run yet.
Michael - Friday, June 03 2016 @ 03:56 AM EDT (#324100) #
Re-Sanchez:

Age 23, IP 197.2, ERA 2.78, ERA+ 145 pitching in the AL East.

Compare to player picked 4 picks later in the draft, Syndergaard:

Age 23, IP 213.2, ERA 2.82, ERA+ 134 pitching in the NL East.

It isn't yet completely clear which was the better player to keep (assuming you couldn't keep both!), even if Syndergaard has been outstanding this year, and there are a couple more factors in his favor (Sanchez's numbers are about 25% relieving, FIP favors Syndergaard).

But yeah, the rotation is great. Every non-Dickey start I feel happy and confident, and Dickey is coming around and isn't bad for a #5. :)
Parker - Friday, June 03 2016 @ 07:54 AM EDT (#324104) #
I'm in agreement with this thread of cautious optimism. Hopefully soon we'll be looking back at this past series as the point in the season where everything finally came together.
Chuck - Friday, June 03 2016 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#324107) #
It isn't yet completely clear which was the better player to keep

Ack! Hubris! Everybody duck!

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