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A thus far successful road trip for the Bluebirds continues from Boston to Detroit, where they take on the Tigers for three. Detroit is kinda the same team they've been for years now: good offense loaded with dangerous hitters, baaaaad bullpen. What they're missing now compared to when they were winning NL Central titles is starting pitching. Max Scherzer and David Price are gone, Anibal Sanchez's career has taken a turn for the dumpster, and they can't grow a pitching prospect even with Miracle Prospect Gro (patent pending patent pending). Verlander is still good (when he makes it out there) as is free agent pickup Jordan Zimmermann despite his battles with declining strikeout rates, while rookie Michael Fulmer (nabbed in the Cespedes trade) has also been effective in seven starts thus far.

Here's the thing though. When Mike Pelfrey is your fourth best starter, you might have some problems. It all adds up to a .500ish record, which is where these guys are.

Pitching Matchups

TUE 7:10 -- Happ (6-2, 3.06) v. Fulmer (5-1, 3.24)
WED 7:10 -- Sanchez (5-1, 2.99) v. Boyd (0-1, 3.94)*
THU 1:10 -- Dickey (3-6, 4.21) v. Zimmermann (8-2, 2.58)

*that should be a fun matchup

Injury Report


The Tigers are a very healthy team right now, with only Warwick Saupold (who? Nice name though) on their DL. For Toronto, Tulowitzki and Cecil are still out while Josh Donaldson might be limited to DH duties for a while because of a thumb issue.

Upton At Dem!

Here's something spooky. In 2012, Melvin Upton Jr. (then B.J.) was coming off a 28 homer season with Tampa Bay, which he cashed in for a big free agent deal with the Braves. He was 27. In 2015, Justin Upton comes off a strong 26 homer season with the Padres, which he cashes in for a big megadeal with the Tigers. He was 27. Upton the Elder's OPS+ that first Atlanta year was 54. Upton the Younger's OPS+ so far in his first Detroit year is 58. Melvin Jr. has quietly turned things around somewhat in San Diego (of all places) as a fourth outfielder. A very, very expensive fourth outfielder.


Be nice to win a few.

June 6-8: Panic In Detroit | 164 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
jerjapan - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#324267) #
Detroit has been trying to disprove the idea that relievers are fungilbe for years now.  No idea how a team can struggle to get a decent pen together year after year after year.  Even Mark Lowe, who looked pretty great last year, has turned back into a pumpkin.
Mike Green - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#324268) #
With the return of Travis, the running game has returned as a secondary feature of the Jay offence. Straight steals from Travis and Pillar and starting lesser runners with 3-2 counts and less than 2 outs are welcome additions to the  repertoire.  When Salty catches, you need to take advantage of his weakness and run more regularly.  When McCann catches, it's a different story.
Gerry - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#324269) #
He wanted to stay home....


Good song to have in my head on a Monday morning.
Jevant - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#324273) #
Let's keep the pedal down, boys. 2 out of 3 would be great.  Nice pitching matchups the first 2 games, hopefully we can get it done.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#324274) #
Like Upton, Jason Heyward signed a free agent deal disproportionate to his credentials and got an absurd $184 million from the Cubs. Perhaps because he signed for a bit more, Jason is posting a bit more of an OPS+ than Upton, providing the Cubs with a 68 OPS+ for their money.

I think the Blue Jays and Tigers are pretty evenly matched and that it will be a tight series. I give a very slight edge to the Tigers tonight given the way Fulmer is pitching, and call it even for tomorrow given that the Blue Jays no longer batter left handed pitching like they did last year. Last year the team OPS vs LH pitching was .818. This year it's a mediocre .729. I'm giving the edge to Dickey in game 3.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#324275) #
When Salty catches, you need to take advantage of his weakness and run more regularly. When McCann catches, it's a different story.

Yesterday on the NESN broadcast the announcers pointed out that Toronto is now vulnerable in this area as well. Russell Martin has the lowest CS percentage, and has allowed the highest number of steals, of any qualifying catcher in the league.
Mike Green - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#324276) #
Like Upton, Jason Heyward signed a free agent deal disproportionate to his credentials and got an absurd $184 million from the Cubs. Perhaps because he signed for a bit more, Jason is posting a bit more of an OPS+ than Upton, providing the Cubs with a 68 OPS+ for their money.

I couldn't disagree more.  Heyward is 26 years old, and so far is having the worst offensive year of his career. The odds are pretty good that he'll put up a fair offensive numbers by the end of the season.  And he remains a superior defender..  Where he will be in three years is anyone's guess.  His BBRef comps run from Grady Sizemore and Delmon Young to Barry Bonds and Jack Clark.  It's about as disparate a list as you can imagine.  For now, he's likely to give Cubs fair market value for his salary in 2016 because of his defence. 
uglyone - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#324278) #
Heyward's track record is surprisingly similar to carl crawford's when he signed his big deal.
SK in NJ - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#324279) #
Yeah, I'm not a big fan of long free agent contracts, but I thought the Heyward deal was reasonable given his age. He's locked up from age 26-33, is an elite defensive player, good base runner, and above average offensively. He's been a 3.4-6.5 WAR player in 5 of his first 6 seasons (he was at 1.9 in 2011) and accumulated a $/WAR of a shade under $200 over that span. Unless he completely falls off a cliff, especially on the defensive end, then he's a solid bet to recoup the value of his contract.

Definitely a risky player, though. Age and skill set is on his side, but how long he can maintain it is anyone's guess. In the grand scheme of things, it wasn't a bad risk to take on Chicago's part.
Mike Green - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#324280) #
Yesterday on the NESN broadcast the announcers pointed out that Toronto is now vulnerable in this area as well. Russell Martin has the lowest CS percentage, and has allowed the highest number of steals, of any qualifying catcher in the league.

The Sox were running a lot.  Martin looks a lot better to me generally, but it may be that the residual neck pain is affecting his release times and his accuracy on the long throw.  He still looks good popping out from behind the plate on tappers in front of the mound.

More on defensive stats for catchers.  Ryan Hanigan's PB totals for the last 7 years- 2,2,3,3,1,4, 17; Russell Martin had a similar experience last year.  Any catcher rating system that treats PBs as a negative for catchers who have significant work with knuckleballers, has a gross flaw.  Similarly, ERA and ERA+ for knuckleballers is a particularly flawed statistic.  Steven Wright's ERA over the last 2 years is 3.18 (excellent), but he's allowed 12 unearned runs in 147 innings which moves the needle from excellent to a merely good 3.91 runs/game. 
uglyone - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#324281) #
never quite understood the attraction to justin though. He's a good but not elite hitter without any defensive value.

career 118wrc+, 117wrc+ since 2014. I mean it's hard for that to even be called anything more than just "good", and it's not exactly the kind of bat you want in the heart of your order.

$20+m for that never really made a lick of sense to me.
Chuck - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#324282) #
Yesterday on the NESN broadcast the announcers pointed out that Toronto is now vulnerable in this area as well.

I heard that as well and wonder if B&P have ever mentioned this (I have missed a lot of baseball this year, so this may well be common knowledge to many).

I wonder if this further supports the speculation that Martin is playing with an injury, and that it is affecting all aspects of his game. Even his pitch blocking seems suspect this year (in the little I have watched).

uglyone - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#324283) #
And people are still far too wrapped up in age - the fact that guys like heyward, upton, sandoval, porcello all were signed around age 27 does not in itself make the deals good.

all it does is potentially lessen one risk factor.
Chuck - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#324284) #
never quite understood the attraction to justin though.

I was going to ask which Justin you were referring to, Upton or Heyward. Then the light went on. Jason Heyward, not Justin Hayward.

Clearly showing my age. Isn't life strange?

whiterasta80 - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#324287) #
Has vlad jr been assigned yet? I would have thought that would have come this week.
Gerry - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#324289) #
The draft is this week, the mini-camp will start at the weekend and assignments will be made around the 17th or so. The Vancouver Canadians first game is the 20th. Bluefield's first game is the 23rd.
#2JBrumfield - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#324291) #
The Vancouver Canadians first game is the 20th.

Just to clarify, that's their home opener. Their season begins in Spokane on the 17th. ;D
electric carrot - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#324292) #
On May 25th:

"Holy lack of faith Batman"
Does anyone remember that team that was historically good in the latter part of 2015? 
I get the disappointment -- but the lack of faith I find astounding.

Record at the time:  22-25 . 468

Record Since:  9-2  .818

You're welcome.



James W - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#324294) #
Yeah, but now that you've mentioned it, we're all doomed. (Except for the doom-and-gloomers, I guess they'll be happy. Or gloomy.)
Mike Green - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#324295) #
And people are still far too wrapped up in age - the fact that guys like heyward, upton, sandoval, porcello all were signed around age 27 does not in itself make the deals good.
all it does is potentially lessen one risk factor.

There's more to it than that in Heyward's case.  When he was signed, there was a decent possibility of offensive growth because of his age and skill set.  It happens quite a lot for players at age 26-28.  The first year of Crawford's contract was his age 30 season.  The chance of offensive growth (to offset the almost certain defensive decline) was much less in the case of Crawford. 
uglyone - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#324296) #
thank you Mr.Carrot!
uglyone - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#324297) #
minor correction - crawford's 1st yr he was 29.
uglyone - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#324298) #
regardless, my argument is that this recent trend of making Age a primary consideration instead of a secondary risk factor is leading to all sorts of bad deals lately.

Mike Green - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#324299) #
Donaldson is back at third base tonight. 

It's funny.  With Travis, Pillar and Barney batting 7-9 (as they are again tonight), Bautista has seen plenty of baserunners on for his at-bats after the 1st inning.  Again, who knew?

92-93 - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#324300) #
Since leaving Target Field, where he always rakes, Bautista is hitting .227/.320/.386 out of the leadoff spot, with 3 double plays in the last 5 games (he leads MLB in them).

I think the team's recent play is a good example of why managers may want to shake things up for the heck of it, but I see Bautista's stats and wonder if patience with the other lineup would've yielded similar results. We'll never know, but you might as well ride the wave while it lasts and leave Jose up there until Travis makes it clear he belongs at the top of the order.
John Northey - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#324301) #
Defense is not something a team should pay a premium for, at least not beyond 2-3 years as it is very variable. Especially when the guy is an outfielder - any reduction in speed or arm strength can kill his defensive value as can quality of positioning.

Unless you have Ozzie Smith, then you always pay up. The exception to the rule. Devon White was beautiful in CF but he never got a contract that was insane iirc.
CeeBee - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#324302) #
Good thing no major monetary decision is needed with Pillar for a few more years.
uglyone - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#324303) #
agreed John - as much as we've learned about the value of defense with the new metrics, we've also learned that paying for that defense is a very risky gamble.
Mike Green - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#324304) #
You knew that this inning would not end well when it began with a rare Pillar misplay. 
uglyone - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#324305) #
alright offense, we need ya now. pitching's carried us long enough.
hypobole - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#324306) #
"It's funny. With Travis, Pillar and Barney batting 7-9 (as they are again tonight), Bautista has seen plenty of baserunners on for his at-bats after the 1st inning. Again, who knew?"

Has he? Both Travis and Fillar had OBP's in the .260's heading into tonight's game. Barney has been raking though. Things can change, but no way he should sit when Tulo returns.
Magpie - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#324307) #
It's not your night, kid.
Mike Green - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#324308) #
Pillar is not alone.

Fulmer is pitching very well.  He looks to me like he's going to be around for a long time.
uglyone - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#324309) #
tonight kinda felt like they were mailing it in.

or hungover.
Gerry - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#324310) #
BABIP'ed to death.
scottt - Monday, June 06 2016 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#324311) #
Floyd's lost of lot of shine lately and Storen is still trying to find some.

Grilli's looking better and better and Biagini was thrown there for 1 pitch?

Jevant - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 07:53 AM EDT (#324313) #
Ooof.  Get 'em Tuesday, boys.

I'm one of the first people to always say after these sorts of games "you are always going to have 5-10 of these really brutal losses a year", but wow, it realllly just makes me want to start watching tonight's game right now to flush the memory of that one.

85bluejay - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#324314) #
Despite the recent winning streak, the offense is still struggling and that has to be concerning - the Jays will not be contenders if the offense doesn't come around and it's no longer early season.
Chuck - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#324316) #
The team still profiles quite differently then we all were imagining: 10th in R/G, 3rd in RA/G.

Not sure if these random observations mean anything...

AVG: last
GIDPs: 2nd most
SF: tied for last
HR/9 allowed: 2nd best
H/9 allowed: 2nd best
pitchers' K/9: 2nd worst

uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#324317) #
very weird performamce last night. maybe the only time i've turned the game off this year because it looked like they just weren't interested.

they still kinda look like they think that the offense is gonna just come magically as they're hacking away up there.

i would really love to see just one inning where every hitter just looks completely focussed on getting on base for the next guy.
electric carrot - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#324318) #
Not sure if these random observations mean anything...

Yup -- pretty weird. Also, I noticed an alarming similarity between all five starting pitchers innings, walks and strikeouts.  Each has between 70-80 innings.  Each has twenty something walks, and the strikeouts are weirdly close too.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#324319) #
The SF doesn't mean much.  They've hit .329/.404/.500 with runners on third and less than two with 9 sacrifice flies in 94 PAs.  The main thing is that they have had relatively few sacrifice fly opportunities.

The GIDP is a big thing.  Jose Bautista leads the league with 11, and has grounded into 4 in the space of 16 games in the lead-off role.  That is hard to do especially for a player who typically hits more balls in the air than on the ground.   Part of it is the aging process.  Most ground balls with a runner on first and less than two out are turned now, as Jose has lost a step.  The other part is the advent of more shifting and fewer hard hit ground balls finding there way through the left side.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#324320) #
i would really love to see just one inning where every hitter just looks completely focussed on getting on base for the next guy.

Concur.  The manager could help. Barney on first and less than two outs is a good time for a hit and run.  Bautista is perfectly capable of slapping the ball to right.  I've seen it with my own eyes.  Salty will probably catch tonight, with Sanchez starting for the Jays, and that will help change the dynamic.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#324321) #
Happ

First 6gms: 6.6ip/gs, 2.50era, 4.16fip, 4.57xfip
Last 6gms: 6.0ip/gs, 4.75era, 4.82fip, 4.60xfip
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#324322) #
Yep.  He hasn't pitched much differently over the unsuccessful starts as compared with the successful ones.   For 2014-16, Happ's ERA of 3.84 has been a little better than his FIP and xFIP.  That is true over his career as well. 

He is getting more ground balls than in previous years (and fewer strikeouts), and hence more double plays.  In the result, he has been able to pitch more innings per start.  Whether he can maintain this kind of pitching style is open to question.  It will be more important for him to hold runners well.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#324323) #
Venditte up.  Dominguez DFAed although he has options.  Hmm.
China fan - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#324324) #
There's something seriously wrong with Gavin Floyd.   He's allowed runs in 6 of his past 7 outings, and his ERA is an appalling 12.27 in those outings.   After his May 29 outing (in which he allowed 2 runs in 0.1 innings), Gibbons said he looked "a little gassed."  So he gave him 7 days of rest.  Then he tried Floyd again last night -- and he was even worse than before.

Last year, after his return from his latest injury, Floyd pitched a total of 20 innings (in the majors and minors) for the whole season.  This year he has already pitched 23.2 innings and looks "gassed" (in Gibby's words).  I think there's a fair chance that he hasn't fully recovered from the impact of having 3 major injuries (and 3 major operations) over the past 3 years.  This really does illustrate why it was somewhat foolhardy to think that Floyd could be a contender for the rotation this season -- and to think that he could step right into the rotation if there's an injury to a starter this year.

Of course I could be totally wrong and he could dramatically bounce back to his early-season form.  I just think that there are too many signs of problems with him, combined with his injury history.  Maybe he should go onto the DL with a phony injury, get some rest, do a minor-league rehab, and come back to help the Jays later in the season.  It might be that he's just not ready for a full-time bullpen role for the entire 2016 season, but could be useful if his playing time is carefully rationed.



China fan - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#324325) #
"...Venditte up.  Dominguez DFAed although he has options.  Hmm....."

It now appears that the Dominguez DFA is a technical formality, designed to use the "optional wavers" route, instead of the normal option route, for some reason.  So it's not intended to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for a newly acquired player, as some people had been speculating.

The recall of Venditte and the return to an 8-man bullpen, on the other hand, seems to support my theory that Gavin Floyd is having issues and needs some rest days.  Aside from Biagini, who can't pitch every day, there's a serious shortage of high-leverage set-up guys in the Jays bullpen.  The search continues, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another trade. 
SK in NJ - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#324326) #
Whether Floyd's performance is related to the way he's been used, or just his arm having a short shelf-life to begin with due to injuries, is anyone's guess. I don't think the transition from SP to RP is as easy as some think. Floyd spent his entire career as a SP, got multiple injuries, and now is throwing every 1-3 days as a reliever (except recently) at max effort. He's likely warmed up in games he never pitched in as well, which also might be an issue. That's got to put some wear and tear on the arm, and for someone with his injury issues who is not used to coming out of the pen, that could be problematic.

I'd tone down his usage as well. If it's not too late to use him in a long relief role, that might give the Jays one last chance of keeping him relatively stretched out in case of need. However at this point I'm not sure I'd trust his arm to last a single start. The Jays may have missed their chance of extracting value out of his arm when he didn't make the rotation, though obviously with the way Sanchez has pitched, I doubt they regret it much.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#324327) #
I don't really understand Gibbons' bullpen usage the last 2 days.  Given the shortage of high leverage relievers, I would have thought that it was particularly important to not bring Osuna in medium-leverage situations and to not bring in Biagini in low leverage situations.  I would have brought in Biagini on Sunday to begin the ninth (with Osuna in reserve), and not thrown him yesterday. SK in NJ essentially made these points at the time.
China fan - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#324328) #
Before Sunday's game, Osuna had only pitched once in June.  I think Gibbons was trying to keep him sharp by using him in the Sunday game.  I think Gibbons believes that Osuna pitches better if he's kept busy -- pitching every 2 or 3 days, rather than sitting around idle for a few days.  Osuna is a workhorse, and had been a starter for his entire career until last season, and he's still just 21.  It's my suspicion that the Jays have decided that he needs to keep very busy to be at his peak performance level.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#324329) #
I don't know.  Osuna has made 26 appearances and thrown 22 innings in 59 games.  Given the shortage of high leverage options, wouldn't you want him to do the 1-2 inning thing more often?

My impression was that Gibbons was scared in Fenway with a 4 run lead and wanted to have Estrada and Osuna (if necessary) as his team for the ninth.  That may be wrong.

uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#324330) #
osuna's actually at 26.1ip, on pace for 72. pretty solid workload bordering on heavy.

but i agree that gibbons didn't view a 4 run lead in the 9th inning of the rubber match in fenway as particularly low leverage.
eudaimon - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#324331) #
Gibbons wanted to nail down the series win in Fenway. Almost didn't work out, but that doesn't make the decision any different. I think it was a good one. Assuming the Red Sox keep playing well a win in Boston is worth two elsewhere, and is extra good for morale.

They looked a little hungover last night, maybe from the intense series in Boston. Hopefully they figure it out today.

92-93 - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#324332) #
Gibbons obviously didn't want to use Biagini in yesterday's game, but Floyd putting on baserunner after baserunner brought about the need to quickly end the inning. Sure, Gibby could've used Storen or Grilli and then brought them back for another inning (something I'm guessing neither is very used to), but instead he tried to get one out from Biagini figuring that barring disaster he'd be available tonight anyway.

With respect to the 4 run lead, I really was hoping we did not see Osuna in that game, but it's very understandable that Gibby wanted to lock down an important series on the road. It sucks that we have to judge Osuna's usage based on the rest of the bullpen being completely unreliable.

There continues to be no need for an 8 man bullpen. The team needs 7 arms that can handle a basic MLB reliever's workload.
China fan - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#324333) #
"....There continues to be no need for an 8 man bullpen. The team needs 7 arms that can handle a basic MLB reliever's workload....."

Both of these sentences may be true, but the absence of the second requirement (7 arms that can handle a basic reliever's workload) has necessitated the first requirement (an 8-man bullpen).
scottt - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#324334) #
Osuna is a workhorse, and had been a starter for his entire career until last season, and he's still just 21.

He started 2 games at 16 in the Mexican League.
Then at 17 he started 9 games between Vancouver and Bluefield.
At 18 another 10 in Lansing.
At 19 7 in Dunedin and 1 in the Gulf Coast League.

And that was it for his starts. And the average is around 5 innings per stats. A bit under I think.

China fan - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#324335) #
"....And that was it for his starts....."

As we've discussed before on this site, pitching prospects are involved in a lot more games than the officially recorded games.  You can't just scan his official stats and judge his workload from that.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#324336) #
"You can't just scan his official stats and judge his workload from that."

So how is he a "workhorse"?
uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#324337) #
never seen sanchez look quite like this before.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#324338) #
bad luck there - couldn't have been a worse pitch for a hit and run.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#324339) #
As fun as it has been to watch the starting pitching shine this year, offensively they need to regroup. Far too much swing and miss, and with few exceptions, it looks like they're overanxious. So many hittable pitches they are simply swinging through or fouling off. It's frustrating.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#324340) #
as good as sanchez has been this year....tonight's sanchez is on a whole other level.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#324341) #
7 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 10 K, 10-0 GB-FB

Wow. We are seeing an ace develop right before our eyes. Amazing transformation.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#324342) #
As I wrote at the outset of the season, I believe that Sanchez is going to outperform Stroman this year.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#324343) #
Somewhere in the winter of '14, this team lost it's ability to show patience at the plate. The Tiger relief corps has been flipping off-speed pitch after off speed pitch out of the strike zone and Jay hitters have been flailing away.

King Ryan - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#324344) #
When I watch Sanchez I don't understand how he's ever given up a hit. Ever.

Feels like not scoring there will bite them, though..
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#324345) #
That should read '15 and "its."
uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#324346) #
that squander might just kill us.
King Ryan - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#324347) #
Yep. Big surprise.

Jose and Edwin flailing at curveballs way out of the zone is the starkest contrast to last season.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#324348) #
"Somewhere in the winter of '14, this team lost it's ability to show patience at the plate. The Tiger relief corps has been flipping off-speed pitch after off speed pitch out of the strike zone and Jay hitters have been flailing away."

I know it feels that way but the problem isn't that simple.

Jays are 4th in mlb with a 9.6bb%, and have the 3rd lowest swing percentage out of the strikezone at 25.5.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#324349) #
If Sanchez is on an innings limit, then Gibbons either doesn't know it or doesn't care about it. At 93 pitches after 8, I was expecting Osuna to start the 9th inning. Instead, he had Sanchez go for the CG, which completely contradicts the point of an innings restriction. Having Sanchez sit through a long top of the 9th, throw additional warm up pitches, and then take him out after a handful of pitches int he 9th seems like a huge waste. Gibbons has a tendency to let a SP put runners on base before bringing a reliever in, but he doesn't seem to realize that it puts the RP at a huge disadvantage every single time. Then fans blame the relievers.

This game is on the offense if they lose. Scoring 2 runs against Boyd with a RH dominated lineup that has a ton of power is pretty bad.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#324350) #
Hopefully Gibbons doesn't break Osuna.
King Ryan - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#324351) #
That inning could not have been more predictable.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#324352) #
osuna is so good.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#324353) #
"At 93 pitches after 8, I was expecting Osuna to start the 9th inning."

that makes one of you.
King Ryan - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#324354) #
I expected Sanchez would start the 9th, and was hoping he could get a complete game, but really strongly feeling like going to osuna was the right call. We've just seen this play too many times now.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#324355) #
"that makes one of you."


Let me rephrase that.

I knew Gibbons was going to let Sanchez try for the complete game, but I was hoping he'd take him out. Overly cautious? Sure, but a long top of the 9th followed by the 4th time through the order probably would have been a good time to show some caution. Not a huge deal since he ended up with less than 100 pitches anyway, but 2-1 with a runner on 2nd and 0 out put Osuna in a much tougher spot.

Regardless, it's becoming old to dissect the pen decisions when the offense is laying eggs a lot more than they should. They don't need to collectively hit like they did in 2015, but the stars need to be impact players. The role players for the most part are holding up their end.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#324356) #
Worst loss of the season. Just brutal.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#324357) #
no manager in baseball is taking out a pitcher dominating like that on 93 pitches.
Magpie - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#324358) #
Eephus, you stand relieved. Series wins against Minnesota, Boston (twice), and New York (twice) were what the doctor ordered. Can't ask for more.

Time for someone else (not me, my mojo has left me!) to pick up the torch.
eudaimon - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#324359) #
... annnnndd the Blue Jays suddenly look bad again. Well, the offense at least. We aren't getting far if Bautista, Donaldson, or Encarnacion don't hit, which is what's been going on for a while.

I have no issues with Gibbons handling of the game. Sanchez looked so good, it would have been hard to take him out at 93. Osuna has looked more human of late, which is worrying being he's the only part of the BP I have any faith in.

Frustrating team to watch.

Hodgie - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#324360) #
If Sanchez is on an innings limit, then Gibbons either doesn't know it or doesn't care about it

Has there been any comment from anyone associated with the Jays referencing an innings limit? Just curious if there is any basis of fact to support the insinuation that Gibbons is either obtuse or willfully ignorant. Regardless, there is not a manager in MLB that pulls Sanchez after 8, not one.

John Northey - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#324361) #
Yeah. I expected Sanchez to get a shot at the shutout but expected Gibbons to do the usual pitcher gets to allow one guy on base then is pulled for Osuna but for some reason he left Sanchez in for a second batter allowing one run in and putting the tying run on 2nd. Ouch. I could see doing that if Sanchez had 2 out at the time.

As others have said though this is 100% on the offense though. To score just 2 runs off a guy who should be in the minors right now and who was extremely wild is unacceptable.
scottt - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#324362) #
There was something prescient about "Panic in Detroit".
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#324363) #
Some managers might have considered pulling Sanchez if their starter was on an innings limit and they had Osuna in the 'pen. Or they might have gone to Osuna after the leadoff single.

Most managers most of the time would have left him in for at least the Iglesias AB, though.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#324364) #
The positive takeaway is obviously Sanchez, who is fast becoming one of the best starters in the league (TM - sorry Stro).
King Ryan - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#324365) #
"no manager in baseball is taking out a pitcher dominating like that on 93 pitches."

Of course not, but one can dream. It would have been cool to see Gibbons do the unconventional thing, and it would have been completely understandable given how many times this has burned him already. How many times now has the starter been left in just long enough to give up some baserunners, and then the 'pen allows the inherited runners to score and a fantastic start gets ruined? I was thinking through 8 that it would be fantastic for Sanchez to sit having thrown 8 shutout innings, striking out 12. Why be greedy? Complete games don't count for more in the standings. As I said, every single thing about the 9th was as predictable as could be, right up to Osuna allowing the inherited runner to score but no others.

Regardless, as someone else said, nit picking about the pitching decisions is getting old when the offense is continually failing to come through. Watching Edwin strikeout with the bases loaded when not a single pitch was within a foot of the strike zone was especially frustrating and uncharacteristic of him compared to last season.

The rotation has been significantly better than even the most optimistic posters here had hoped, so not being able to capitalize is really frustrating.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#324366) #
"Eephus you stand relieved" might not be the ideal turn of phrase given how the season has gone so far...I do think "Dancing in the streets" would have been a better title for the thread.

The Tigers successfully laid down two sacrifice bunts. Watch and learn!
Four Seamer - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#324367) #
I sure hope the agents for Joey and EE haven't made any large purchases on credit lately - those two will make out okay regardless, but anyone hoping to make bank on their backs has to be gnashing their teeth at the amount of money these two are costing them with their performances this year.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#324368) #
"no manager in baseball is taking out a pitcher dominating like that on 93 pitches."


I don't even disagree with that, but if Sanchez's innings/workload is going to be monitored this season, then it becomes a debate. In situations like that, I usually like to err on the side of caution, but I'm not surprised they tried for the CG. I don't even blame Gibbons for letting him, although I don't like the constant trend of bringing relievers in with runners on base. It puts them at a huge disadvantage most of the time. Osuna is good enough to clean those messes, but it's not ideal.

Again, based on everything I've seen, I don't think Gibbons is treating Sanchez any differently than he is the other SP's in terms of workload, so it's probably going to get to a point where he's either shut down or moved to the pen, because at the pace he's going he'd easily top 200 innings this season. It will be interesting to see how they go about it. I don't recall the last Jays SP on an innings limit. Was it Morrow? He was shut down in August 2010, but the team was out of it. My guess is Hutch takes his rotation spot in August, and he goes to the pen, but right now he's clearly the ace of the staff, so you run into that issue.
King Ryan - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#324369) #
"I sure hope the agents for Joey and EE haven't made any large purchases on credit lately - those two will make out okay regardless, but anyone hoping to make bank on their backs has to be gnashing their teeth at the amount of money these two are costing them with their performances this year."

I adore Bautista and hope they can find a way for him to stay, but, yeah, $150M? Good luck with that...
scottt - Tuesday, June 07 2016 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#324370) #
Osuna might be  better than the others with inherited runners, but that doesn't make him good.

He's let 29% of inherited runners scored before tonight.



Michael - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 03:44 AM EDT (#324373) #
If they had pulled Sanchez after 8 he would have had a game score of 91 tonight, good for the 6th best pitched game of 2016. Since he was kept in and gave up 2 hits and 2 earned runs, his game score dropped to 79 which is tied for the 48th best pitched game of 2016 (tied 18th in the AL, which is always harder than the NL due to no pitcher batting).

For 2016 Sanchez has an average game score of 59.25 (would have been 60.25 if he didn't come out for the ninth), which is just above the career game score numbers of Roger Clemens (59.0) but just below the career game score numbers of Nolan Ryan (59.8) or Randy Johnson (59.9).

Sanchez's average game score last year was 51.55. If you combine for his major league career to date his average game score is 55.56, which is a bit below Maddux's career number of 56.1.

This season here are the Jays rotation by game score:
1. Estrada, Average Game Score 63.27, Highest Game Score 79, Lowest Game Score 42, Games >=50 Score 9/11, Game Score Won-Lost 10-1.
2. Sanchez, Average Game Score 59.25, Highest Game Score 79, Lowest Game Score 21, Games >=50 Score 10/12, Game Score Won-Lost 9-3.
3. Happ, Average Game Score 54.58, Highest Game Score 74, Lowest Game Score 11, Games >=50 Score 10/12, Game Score Won-Lost 9-3.
4. Dickey, Average Game Score 50.33, Highest Game Score 81, Lowest Game Score 32, Games >=50 Score 6/12, Game Score Won-Lost 6-6.
5. Stroman, Average Game Score 49.03, Highest Game Score 79, Lowest Game Score 15, Games >=50 Score 6/12, Game Score Won-Lost 7-5.

If you combine those records you'd get a record of 41-18 (42-18 if you add the one Hutchinson start which was a 55 game score). Game Score Won-Lost is from http://sabr.org/research/does-game-score-still-work-today-s-high-offense-game

Among pitchers post 1914 with 400 games started in a career Pedro has the best average game score of 61.2, obviously 11 games this season aren't the same as a career but Estrada is other level great and Sanchez is elite this year, Happ is very good, Dickey and Stroman are average. On average in the majors the mean game score tends to be around 49. And since Game Score punishes a pitcher for runs and earned runs, all the bullpen inherited runners being allowed to score is negatively impacting the numbers above, they'd be even better with neutral or good bullpen performance on inherited runners. Clearly the rotation is outstanding, overperforming, due for some regression. The bullpen and offense owes the rotation about a dozen wins so far.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 08:04 AM EDT (#324374) #
In the silver linings department, today's Dickey start is perfectly timed.  Thole gets to face a right-handed pitcher with typical platoon splits in a day game after a night game in the middle of a long stretch of games without a day off.  It might be an idea to give Bautista and/or Encarnacion a rest (you could achieve both by letting Bautista DH and sitting Encarnacion while starting Carrera in the outfield), and similarly to give a recovering Travis a day off in favour of Goins. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 08:13 AM EDT (#324375) #
Dalton Pompey is hot.  He's hitting .395 with 7 walks and 6 strikeouts in his last 10 games, to pull his seasonal line to near-career norms (higher OBP/lower slugging percentage).  At this point, the Blue Jays are probably a better club with him and Saunders in the outfield against RHP, and Bautista/Encarnacion/Smoak getting less than full-time work. 

Encarnacion has played every game this season and Bautista all but one.  They have not performed at their best.  It's a good time to dial it back a bit. 

John Northey - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 08:33 AM EDT (#324376) #
I remember a study from a few years back when Ripken was still playing that showed a game off a month did wonders for players. Yet we still see a lot of the macho attitude that a regular is a regular and shouldn't have any games off if at all possible. You might get away with it for guys like Pillar who are mid-20's but guys like EE and Bautista who are more mid-30's it is really important to get those games off.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#324377) #
What was Martin doing in the sixth inning. It looked like he was trying to steal home on the back end of a double steal. I don't think that was a good bet with Martin running.

as I have said several times, the Jays are messing up little things this whole season, fielding plays not made, running and mental errors are up from last year.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#324378) #
I don't think it was the back end of a double steal, Gerry.  Travis swung at a pitch way out of the zone (on a 2-1 count)  as he would on a hit and run.  Martin was, I think, going to go (on his own) if Salty had thrown through.  It's not great when a catcher gets fooled like that.  Martin has had a tough start to the year in a lot of ways.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#324379) #
John Gibbons turns 54 today.  I think that the young man deserves a fitting present, a Tums-free 10-0 laugher.
ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#324380) #
Of course not, but one can dream. It would have been cool to see Gibbons do the unconventional thing

That kind of managing would seem to me more of a nightmare than a dream. Sanchez was far and away the best player on the field yesterday. At the end of 8, he'd allowed one batter of the last 19 to reach, and that on a walk. He'd given up one hit in the game, one walk and struck out 12. Letting him pitch to Iglesias was a no-brainer.

In fact a much better argument could be made for leaving Sanchez in longer than he was, than for taking him out after 8. He'd struck out Cabrera twice in three at bats. He's a better bet for a double play than Osuna. If someone wants to second-guess Gibbons pitching decisions in a game where the offence managed two runs, it would make more sense to criticize him for taking Sanchez out than for leaving him in.

The problem isn't that the pitching wasn't micro-managed effectively. The problem is the team has scored 2 runs in 2 games so far this series.

Also, the AL Central is if anything a stronger division than the AL East. In the AL Central there is one team below .500, the Twins. The Jays have lost the two series they've played against AL Central teams other than the Twins.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#324381) #
Also, the AL Central is if anything a stronger division than the AL East. In the AL Central there is one team below .500, the Twins. The Jays have lost the two series they've played against AL Central teams other than the Twins.

That reasoning might makes sense but for the unbalanced schedule.  The Royals are 5-1 against the Twins and below .500 against everyone else.  The White Sox are 6-0 against the Twins and way below .500 against everyone else.  The Tigers are 6-0 against the Twins and below .500 against everyone else. 

The AL this year is the better league with a bunch of decent to good teams and only one bad club, the Twins.  The NL is completely different. 

As for Sanchez/Osuna in last night's game, I think that it's pretty clear that Gibbons had to take out Sanchez after the Kinsler double.  He had thrown 98 pitches and was fading.  I understand completely that Sanchez was left in to begin the ninth.  He looked good in the eighth and had a low pitch count. 
ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#324382) #
I couldn't disagree more. Heyward is 26 years old, and so far is having the worst offensive year of his career. The odds are pretty good that he'll put up a fair offensive numbers by the end of the season. And he remains a superior defender.. Where he will be in three years is anyone's guess. His BBRef comps run from Grady Sizemore and Delmon Young to Barry Bonds and Jack Clark. It's about as disparate a list as you can imagine. For now, he's likely to give Cubs fair market value for his salary in 2016 because of his defence.

I'm not sure which 'market' you mean, but corner outfielders with a 68 OPS+ (Heyward sat against the last lefty the Cubs faced) don't normally stick in the majors at all. Defence for a corner outfield position doesn't matter enough to hide that kind of bat. The minors are stocked with guys who can play a mean outfield D but can't hit enough to make it in the majors.

Do I think Heyward will improve upon his 68 OPS+ this year? Yes, I suspect that's more likely. But I certainly hope that our front office doesn't plan to spend $200 million of its resources on a defensive corner outfielder with a long swing and a mediocre bat. And I'm betting the Cubs wish they hadn't as well.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#324383) #
Also, the AL Central is if anything a stronger division than the AL East. In the AL Central there is one team below .500, the Twins. The Jays have lost the two series they've played against AL Central teams other than the Twins.

The ALE is collectively +16 over .500. The Central is -12.

Even if you just throw out the Twins (who still comprise 20% of the entire division), the top 4 teams in the Central are +11, and the top 3 teams alone in the East are +23
ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#324384) #
the top 4 teams in the Central are +11, and the top 3 teams alone in the East are +23

Wouldn't the appropriate comparator for the top 4 teams in Central be the top 4 teams in the East? Teams 3 and 4 in the Central are two games about .500. In the East teams 3 and 4 are at .500. Your comparison really relies entirely on the Red Sox and O's.

I'm obviously pushing back against the suggestions made earlier that Toronto's problems are schedule-related, and that once they're out of the East it's clear sailing. As I wrote above, I think the Blue Jays and Tigers are pretty evenly matched, and I don't think they're going to find a scheduling soft spot against the Central, other than the Twins. I think that if Toronto can play .500 against the top 4 teams in the Central they'll be doing well. So far they haven't.
Chuck - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#324385) #
What was Martin doing in the sixth inning. It looked like he was trying to steal home on the back end of a double steal.

I got to see about 5 minutes of the game last night, and this unfortunate incident fell into that time window. What the hell was he doing? What was with the H&R call with a man on third? Ordinarily, Travis would have taken the pitch, run the count to 3-1, and all of a sudden the inning looks very different.

I understand that a frustrated Gibbons is "trying to make things happen" on offense, but the logic behind this particular call baffles me.

And I agree with Mike. Martin is failing to impress in virtually every aspect of the game.

BlueJayWay - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#324386) #
Wouldn't the appropriate comparator for the top 4 teams in Central be the top 4 teams in the East? Teams 3 and 4 in the Central are two games about .500. In the East teams 3 and 4 are at .500. Your comparison really relies entirely on the Red Sox and O's.

In that case it's +21 vs +11, and the teams in our division don't have a Twins to beat up on. When you add them in and compare the entire Central to the East, it's nowhere close.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#324387) #
The Jays are 31-29 and their pythag says they should be 31-29. With a bit more luck in 1 run games (6-11) maybe they'd have an extra win or two, but for the most part, they are playing like the middling .500 team that their record says they are. Of course, pythag does not predict future performance, so a hot streak from the vets could change things, but right now there's no silver lining with this team like there was last season when they were around .500 with a hugely positive RD.

Hopefully they can win today and head into the series against Baltimore with some momentum.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#324388) #
"If Sanchez is on an innings limit, then Gibbons either doesn't know it or doesn't care about it"

You keep saying this without realizing that the fact that sanchez has been kept under 100 pitches per start despite his dominance is clearly the team limiting his workload.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#324389) #

I got to see about 5 minutes of the game last night, and this unfortunate incident fell into that time window. What the hell was he doing? What was with the H&R call with a man on third? Ordinarily, Travis would have taken the pitch, run the count to 3-1, and all of a sudden the inning looks very different.

I understand that a frustrated Gibbons is "trying to make things happen" on offense, but the logic behind this particular call baffles me.

I guess the notion was that Travis has good bat control and ordinarily would be able to hit the ball up the middle on the ground for a 6-3 or 4-3 with an RBI rather than an inning-ending DP.  It was a very hard pitch to do that on, or even to foul off.  I understand why Gibbons tried the approach.  Incidentally, it looked to me like Saunders had the bag stolen (given Salty's weak arm) and if Martin hadn't made his mistake, it would have been 2nd and 3rd and one out and a 2-2 count.  In that case, the strategy would have to be declared a modest success.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#324390) #
"Of course not, but one can dream. It would have been cool to see Gibbons do the unconventional thing"

i woulda thought it pretty uncool of him to pull sanchez there. made no sense imo.
jerjapan - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#324391) #
The Cubs were lauded for the Heyward signing when it happened - Fangraphs had it as the 6th best move of the offseason. Just because the bottom has dropped out on him so far doesn't make it a bad move - yet.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#324392) #
The minors are stocked with guys who can play a mean outfield D but can't hit enough to make it in the majors.

That's not Heyward's issue- the minors are not crawling with players who can play defence the way he does and hit major league pitching at roughly league average rates.  The problem with Heyward is that outfield D generally deteriorates pretty quickly and earlier than offence.  He is not likely to be a better than average defender in 5 years, which means that he is going to need to be a lot better offensively to give something like value for money. 
uglyone - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#324393) #
"I'm obviously pushing back against the suggestions made earlier that Toronto's problems are schedule-related"

nobody would ever suggest that the schedule is THE problem, but it would be silly to ignore that, objectively speaking, they've had the toughest schedule in the AL and arguably all mlb too.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos

the fact that they happened to just lose 2gms to a .500 team is neither here nor there.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#324394) #
I agree with Mike - there was some bad luck with that Martin out. it just happened to be a perfect nasty hitnrun-beating pitch. with the offense struggling and a good contact hitter up I didn't mind the call.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#324395) #
"You keep saying this without realizing that the fact that sanchez has been kept under 100 pitches per start despite his dominance is clearly the team limiting his workload."


He threw 106 pitches in his last start against the Yankees going 6.2 IP. He threw 103 pitches in 6.2 IP in the start before that against Boston. Are those high pitch counts relatively speaking? No, but for a pitcher who is on an innings/workload restriction, why even have him pitch the 7th in those situations? You're talking about extra warm up pitches, and anywhere from 10-15 more pitches in the actual game. That doesn't appear to be the actions of a manager looking out for innings.

There's been nothing wrong with Sanchez's pitch counts. He can go deeper into games because of his skill set (heavy GB emphasis). However, Gibbons can still take him out after an inning rather than in between an inning to save some of that workload. Squeezing an extra inning out of him rather than letting a reliever start an inning fresh has burned the Jays a few times already with different SP's. It's not a high leverage move.

One thing I have read that doesn't make any sense is that Sanchez was dominating after 8 so he had to come back out. Fine. I can live with that logic. However, he started the inning with 93 pitches. He was taken out at 98 pitches. In other words, all the dominating for 8 innings was negated after 5 pitches in the 9th? Why not just let him work out of the jam if you were going to let him start the 9th? He did the same thing with Estrada in Boston. Literally had him throw 2 pitches in the 9th before pulling him. I don't get the logic behind it.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#324396) #
the fact that he is under 100 pitches per start despite his dominance clearly means they are conserving his workload.

clearly.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#324397) #
"One thing I have read that doesn't make any sense is that Sanchez was dominating after 8 so he had to come back out. Fine. I can live with that logic. However, he started the inning with 93 pitches. He was taken out at 98 pitches. In other words, all the dominating for 8 innings was negated after 5 pitches in the 9th? Why not just let him work out of the jam if you were going to let him start the 9th? He did the same thing with Estrada in Boston. Literally had him throw 2 pitches in the 9th before pulling him. I don't get the logic behind it."

it makes easy sense - they are watching his workload very closely.

on 93 pitches, there's a good chance of getting 3 outs without extending the pitch count much past 100.

on 98 pitches, that becomes near impossible.

so they pulled him, because they are conserving his workload.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#324398) #
To my mind, it was harder to explain Gibbons' approach to Estrada than to Sanchez.   Estrada had thrown 108 pitches after 8 innings and had given up the Young homer in the 8th.  He had a 4 run lead.  Why not send out a medium leverage reliever like Biagini to close it out?  You really don't want Estrada to throw an extra 15-17 pitches or more in that situation, and it is dubious whether he is likely to be more effective than Biagini at that point. Sanchez was, I thought, a different situation given the fade in the ninth and the obvious need for the ace in an ultra-high leverage situation. 

Goins is in for Travis today, but both Bautista and Encarnacion are in the lineup.  Maybe Gibbons will give one or both a day off on Saturday when the Jays again have a day game after a night game. 

SK in NJ - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#324399) #
What if the first batter had a 10 pitch at bat and Sanchez struck him out? Now he's at 103 pitches with 2 outs and no one on. Does Gibbons yank him then or risk him reaching 110+ pitches? If they were really cautious about his workload, especially given the long top half of the 9th, why not avoid using him in the 9th at all since 93 pitches is a solid amount for a start?

Again, the end result (98 pitches) was fine, and even trying for the CG was fine (even though I would have played cautious in that scenario). I just don't get why Gibbons wants to stretch a starter out (not just Sanchez) for an extra batter or two and bring in a reliever to get out of a mess. He does that repeatedly. I'm just emphasizing it with Sanchez because we don't know how many bullets he will have as a SP this season, but it's an issue with all the starters.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#324400) #
"If they were really cautious about his workload, especially given the long top half of the 9th, why not avoid using him in the 9th at all since 93 pitches is a solid amount for a start?"

why use him in the 8th, then?
Eephus - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#324401) #
I think I honestly just heard Tabler say: "There is a lot of hits the other way."

I'm speechless, though perhaps not the only one.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#324402) #
I think i just saw pillar doing a Stir The Pot type gesture.

first time i've seen it this year, and I like it.
krose - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#324403) #
Just not a smart team. Hitters not taking what pitchers give, poor pitch calling, questionable lineup selection and roster management...and worst of all poor sliding technic.
krose - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#324404) #
Did you see that Ed?
hypobole - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#324405) #
"I think I honestly just heard Tabler say: "There is a lot of hits the other way."

I'm speechless, though perhaps not the only one."

I think I honestly wish Pat was speechless, though perhaps I'm not the only one.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#324406) #
MVP with the MVP performance when we need it.
krose - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#324407) #
Do you think going the other way might open up the inside part of the plate?

Ed learned nothing!
92-93 - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#324408) #
"I just don't get why Gibbons wants to stretch a starter out (not just Sanchez) for an extra batter or two and bring in a reliever to get out of a mess."

Maybe because the bullpen has failed Gibbons time after time, regardless of whether they come in to the game with or without anybody on base?
uglyone - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#324409) #
tigers didn't win this series, we lost it. I hope they stay pissed off at themselves.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#324410) #
A blowout loss and a heart-breaker in the games you were supposed to win, and an easy victory in the tough matchup.  Youneverknow.  We'll call it the birthday effect.  I do think that Gibbons' birthday merits a longer celebration though- an Oriole-shaped pinata seems in order.

Chuck - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#324411) #
I think I honestly just heard Tabler say: "There is a lot of hits the other way."

He's only just recently stopped pluralizing third baseman as third basemans, so baby steps here.

eudaimon - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#324412) #
Maybe someone with more baseball knowledge can help me here. Josh Donaldson in his forth at-bat, when he was going for the cycle grounded out to the right side, advancing the runner to third. Buck & Pat praised him for unselfish play, saying he "sacrificed himself" to move the runner over.

Did Donaldson, likely our teams best hitter, really give up an out and a chance at the cycle to move a runner over? Or did he just get beat by the pitcher, and Pat & Buck were just talking out their ass? Or is the truth somewhere in between, ie: he was trying to hit it to the right side, but obviously would have preferred to make better contact?

My assumption is that Pat & Buck were just exhibiting symptoms of verbal diarrhea, but I figured I'd ask.

Chuck - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#324414) #
"There is a lot of hits the other way."

You know, I do have a fear that Dewey is going to say that this is technically correct, since lot is singular and of hits is merely a qualifier.

China fan - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#324415) #
"....he was trying to hit it to the right side, but obviously would have preferred to make better contact?...."

That's certainly my interpretation of what happened.  Donaldson wasn't deliberately "sacrificing himself" -- he was definitely trying to get a hit -- but he was trying to hit it to the right side, so that he would advance the runner even if he couldn't get the ball out of the infield.  It was better than a bunt, because it had a better chance of achieving a hit, but it was still ultimately aimed at advancing the runner.

On the subject of broadcasting errors:  I'm sure the Jays broadcasters make a lot of errors of logic and grammar during a three-hour broadcast. and I'm not disagreeing with those who are bothered by Buck and Tabby, because we have a right to be annoyed by anyone's stylistic quirks, but personally I have some sympathy for these guys.   Anyone who has to talk non-stop for three consecutive hours is going to say a lot of stupid or ungrammatical things.  If someone asked me to talk for three hours, even about a subject in which I am knowledgeable, I'm sure that I would make a lot of stupid errors of grammar and logic and even errors of fact.  Moreover, these guys cannot speak with complete honesty during the broadcast, since they are contractually required to be generally positive and upbeat, even when one team is playing terribly, as sometimes happens.  So, if you have to speak for 3 consecutive hours, and you are simultaneously required to bite your tongue and be polite and diplomatic, isn't it fairly likely that you would say some embarrassing things?  I would hate to be scrutinized to that degree. 

Having said that, I admit of course that some broadcasters are better than others.  Maybe the Jays could use some better broadcasters.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#324416) #
baseball players always give baseball players credit for "moving the runner over" when it happens. it's The Code.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#324417) #
Chuck, are you sure the word "hits" isn't the determining factor?

As in "There are a lot of people in the stadium. However, there is a lot of rain in the weather forecast."
Chuck - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#324418) #
Chuck, are you sure the word "hits" isn't the determining factor?

Hey, I'm not sure at all. That's why we need Dewey! I know "there are a lot" sounds better than "there is a lot", but I don't know if that necessarily makes it right.

grjas - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#324419) #
"A blowout loss and a heart-breaker in the games you were supposed to win, and an easy victory in the tough matchup. Youneverknow."

That's the weird thing about the team this year. They are totally unpredictable. SP overperforming, lineup and RP underperforming, losing a lot of games they should have won, blown away by Tampa then running 12-3 through the East. Stymied by a mediocre pitcher one day, crushing a stud the next. Hard to know what to expect from the team on any given day.

I seem to remember more heartbreaking losses this year than in prior years. Hopefully this is simply a fluke and their luck will change. But honestly, who knows?
Hodgie - Wednesday, June 08 2016 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#324420) #
Jeff Sullivan does his best to wash away the taste from Tuesday's game. I give you (well Jeff gives you), "Aaron Sanchez Is Looking Like an Ace"
King Ryan - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 01:37 AM EDT (#324422) #
woulda thought it pretty uncool of him to pull sanchez there. made no sense im

You are free to disagree as much as you want, but please don't try to argue that it makes no sense. It makes sense in that wins are more important than complete games and a fresh osuna is a better pitcher thab virtually any starter a 4th time through the order.

I get the opposing point of view, but to say this this perspective makes "no sense" is just absurd.
SK in NJ - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 07:54 AM EDT (#324423) #
"Maybe because the bullpen has failed Gibbons time after time, regardless of whether they come in to the game with or without anybody on base?"


If the bullpen is so untrustworthy in Gibby's eyes, then why would he put them in a more difficult situation rather than letting them start an inning? Part of the reason the pen seems to do so poorly might be related to the situations they are brought in. Not all the time, obviously, but it's not a high percentage move to bring in a reliever with runners on base and expect no runs to score, unless you have Chapman/Betances/Miller type arms in your pen, and clearly the Jays do not.

Storen and Cecil not panning out has really hurt. Early in the year Gibbons seemed ready to go the Royals route and just have Cecil/Stroen/Osuna in some combination close out games, but after that flamed out, he's gone into panic mode.
ayjackson - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 07:55 AM EDT (#324424) #
I can't disagree with the Gibbons decisions from Tuesday. Sanchez looked like he was losing his release point a bit in the 7th; came back with a strong 8th, but left a couple pitches up in the zone in the 9th to get the Tigers going. Bring in the guy.

At the end of the day, runners LOB and a poorly located fastball to one of the best hitters in the game proved costly. That's baseball. I've moved on.

I'm just so happy about Sanchez, I don't even want to gloat!!
ayjackson - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 07:56 AM EDT (#324425) #
*The Guy
SK in NJ - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 08:04 AM EDT (#324426) #
"You are free to disagree as much as you want, but please don't try to argue that it makes no sense. It makes sense in that wins are more important than complete games and a fresh osuna is a better pitcher thab virtually any starter a 4th time through the order."


Agreed. Aside from a SP facing a lineup for a 4th time through the order being a negative for any pitcher, in this case specifically, if you look at the small sample of Sanchez starts this season, he performs his worst from pitches 76-100 (78 PA's) and the 4th time through the order (only 10 PA's, though).

I could see why Gibbons let Sanchez continue, but to suggest it didn't make sense to take him out given where his pitch count was, the situation of the game, and the fact that he's someone who needs to be coddled a bit to preserve his workload, is definitely absurd.

This is subjective though. I remember hating Halladay throwing 10 innings one time even though it was on a very low pitch count (90-something, I think), while others just looked at the pitch count and said it was fine. There will never be a consensus on this in all likelyhood.
Chuck - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#324427) #
I was going to suggest that Donaldson, aside from yesterday, does not seem like his old self. In reality, however, he's exactly like his old self.

He was a 7ish WAR player for two seasons in Oakland before his crazy year in Toronto. And now he seems to have returned to being "merely" a 7ish WAR player. You want to be greedy and expect a return to his 2015 form, but I think we should be plenty happy with what he's doing right now.

85bluejay - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#324429) #
I wonder if Gibbons decision to let Sanchez start the 9th was partly because Sanchez was unhappy when he was removed from his previous start.
hypobole - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#324431) #
"baseball players always give baseball players credit for "moving the runner over" when it happens. it's The Code."

I usually enjoy listening to Pat and Buck with the sound muted. :)

However I'll agree with them for pointing this out. I remember watching games earlier this year and thinking we seem to be very poor in moving runners along without benefit of a walk or hit.

I don't know if I've ever seen "productive out" stats, But I would guess we would not be faring well in that regard.

BTW, the Jays drew 9 walks Tuesday and not one came around to score.
James W - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#324432) #
talk three consecutive hours

China Fan, I think THAT'S the problem. Sometimes it's fine if nobody is talking. The Martinez/Tabler team seems (to me) allergic to silence.
christaylor - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#324433) #
Shouldn't the productive out be banished to the dustbin of history? Run expectancy is not that much better after a productive out:

http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

That said the small advantage can add up, but I doubt hitters can control this very much against major league pitching even when bunting.

uglyone - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#324434) #
"You are free to disagree as much as you want, but please don't try to argue that it makes no sense. "

I said "IMO".

Dewey - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#324435) #
I sometimes think of Tabby as an Ohio version of Charlie Farquarson, without the wit.  (Hey, can you imagine Charlie doing a Jays game?!)  I’ve more or less just tuned him out when I watch the game on TV.  On the specific issue Chuck raises, I am (as so often) on Chuck’s side.  That, of course, doesn’t mean we’re ‘right’.  But ‘hits’ is plural, as hypobole points out, so the governing verb should be as well.  Doubt Tabby noticed.
 
My particular bete noire these days is Joe Siddall.  I’m sometimes trapped into listening to the game on car radio; and he sets my teeth on edge.  Dangerous in traffic.  I have to turn it off.   He just cannot shut up, like his sidekick, ol’ Jer.  And Siddall’s comments are more and more relentlessly Sawkiw-ish.  Relentlessly is carefully chosen.  He sometimes can scarcely wait for Jerry’s words to complete before he’s launched into a re-statement-with-more-pointless-details himself.  And all presented with an aura of infallibly irritating authority. 

CF, your sympathy for the job the announcers have to do is well-taken; but  . . . these guys, none of them, “have to talk non-stop [not even literally] for three consecutive hours”.  Gradually these various talking heads (not unlike the umps) have taken on a new importance, in their own estimation at least, and seem to think it’s about them!  My enemy, Jerry H., is the epitome of this benighted attitude.

 As James W. points out, it’s O.K. to have a few seconds of silence (except the ambient ball-park sounds) from time to time.  At least.
uglyone - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#324440) #
for the first time in my life i've been watching games on mute, and using twitter as my commentary, and it really is better.

I turn the volume on in big at bats where (usually) the nimrods are blessedly quiet and the crowd is roaring, but kute the rest.
92-93 - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#324446) #
"If the bullpen is so untrustworthy in Gibby's eyes, then why would he put them in a more difficult situation rather than letting them start an inning?...it's not a high percentage move to bring in a reliever with runners on base and expect no runs to score, unless you have Chapman/Betances/Miller type arms in your pen, and clearly the Jays do not."

The bullpen being untrustworthy is precisely why Gibbons tried to get through the 9th with a starter having one of the best starts in Jays history. Ideally Sanchez would've completed what he started and Osuna would've been kept as fresh as possible for the upcoming schedule; It's not just about the game in front of you. Once Sanchez got into trouble Gibbons was able to go bring in a Chapman/Betances/Miller type arm.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#324447) #
Shouldn't the productive out be banished to the dustbin of history? Run expectancy is not that much better after a productive out:
http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html
That said the small advantage can add up, but I doubt hitters can control this very much against major league pitching even when bunting.

In some instances, run expectancy does not correlate well with win expectancy.  A 1/4 chance of scoring 2 runs is much less valuable than a 1/2 chance of scoring 1 run when you have a lead late. 

I think that the comments by Tabler and Martinez about Donaldson and the productive out were perhaps a somewhat subtle response to the wild-swinging at-bats from Bautista and Encarnacion the night before with a 2-0 lead late and runners on 2nd and 3rd and less than 2 out.  The point presumably was that swinging for a home run in that situation had a selfish element to it. 
92-93 - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#324448) #
The radio broadcast is significantly worse since Ashby left and Siddall was brought in. It was great when Jerry had a partner willing to raise an eyebrow at what he often says.
uglyone - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#324453) #
"Gibbons was able to go bring in a Chapman/Betances/Miller type arm."

I like when we agree.

2016 RP fWAR

1. Betances 1.4
2. Miller 1.3
3. Harris 1.2
4. Osuna 1.1
5. Phelps 1.1

2015-16

1. Betances 3.8
2. Miller 3.3
3. Chapman 3.3
4. Britton 3.0
5. Allen 2.6
6. Jansen 2.6
7. Davis 2.5
8. Wilson 2.5
9. Osuna 2.4
10. Robertson 2.4


did I mention he's been either the youngest or 2nd youngest player in baseball while doing this?
Mike Green - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#324455) #
For what it's worth, I'm not a big fan of WAR for relief pitchers.  In the case of Miller/Betances, I think that Miller has been clearly a lot better, and this year so far has been about as good as you can possibly be.  A K/9 rate of 16, a W/9 rate of 1 and 51% of balls in play on the ground and very few line drives.  It's pretty near impossible to string together three hits/walks, and so your best chance is to run into one.  It doesn't happen often.  Betances does give up line drives and hard hit balls and does walk people, so it is possible to string together a few as the Blue Jays have done.  More to the point, you can wear him down with the right approach.   He's still a great pitcher.

Betances is on pace for just less than 1 WPA in 2016.  Miller is on pace for over 4. 

Cracka - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#324456) #
Injury updates from Gibby today: Tulo likely to be activated Monday. Cecil progressing, but not ready until end of month. No timetable for Morales, but he's doing light bullpen sessions.

Tough decisions coming after the weekend: Barney has been hot and should see time at 2B. Does that mean Devon Travis is sent back to Buffalo instead of Goins? Might not be a bad idea for him to get his mojo back in AAA while we ride the Barney train... the situation is likely to correct itself in time (Travis will get hot, Barney will cool down, and the swap will be made...)



uglyone - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#324459) #
Mike - Betances always pitches significantly more innings. Miller beats him on a rate basis but he might not if he had betances' workload.
Magpie - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#324460) #
Attention Roster!

We someone new to start a Baltimore Series Thread, now that Eephus' winning streak has been broken and they're still too close to .500 to risk my getting involved.

I just don't get as worked up about the broadcasters as everyone else. This may be because I spent my youth working in something that were called "record stores" (you young 'uns unfamiliar with the concept may need to look that up), in particular the big A&A down at Yonge and Dundas. One of my basic human skills is Tuning Out extraneous noise. Every now and then, I actually hear something useful. I have a low bar, I suppose.

It's probably been ten years since I heard a game on the radio. I understand how Jerry can get on the nerves, but I like him personally - he was always the friendliest, most helpful guy in the press box - and on the air I always appreciated how he used to take care to provide all the scoring details of what was going on and how he'd recap what players had done in previous at bats. I have no idea if he still does that. And I've never heard the guy he's working with these days.
baagcur - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#324462) #
For what it's worth, I'm not a big fan of WAR
Good one. Definitely worth a starr
StephenT - Thursday, June 09 2016 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#324512) #
I enjoy Siddall's commentary on the radio.  Very knowledgeable, you can tell he's been coaching players for years.

I like the information that Siddall passes on from the players and coaches that he talks to on the field before the games, e.g., tonight when Saunders bunted he told us that he saw Saunders in a bunting practice group earlier today and Luis Rivera was telling him to bunt hard down the third-base line just like he did tonight because the bunt would be with the shift on.

Siddall works well with Howarth and can share in the memories of Blue Jays and Expos players of the past.
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