And just as I'm calling out for someone to start a series thread, #2JB steps up. The very man I was hoping to see! We're in good hands, gang!

It's weird to see the home team first.

Baltimore just swept Kansas City and there was a bit of boxing with Machado in one corner and Yordano Ventura in the other. Final score is Machado 4 games for charging the mount and fighting and Yordano 9 games for intentionally throwing at Machado and fighting.

9 games to a starting pitchers is basically just one game. No chance of course that Machado serves the suspension against Toronto.

So? Will anyone throw inside much in this series? Will the umps give warnings early on?

It's almost a shame O'Day is injured and won't face Bautista this series

Buck Martinez: " And there's a drive, deep to left, and this game is ... off the wall !"

Checking in on-line. I see that Machado doubled. And then, with two out, Trumbo got a hit. It was called a double despite Machado being thrown out at home.

Is this possible? Does this not suggest that Trumbo reached second before Machado was thrown out at the plate? And how could that be, unless Machado got into a rundown or something?

Machado forgot how many outs there were and went back to tag up. Cost the O's a run.

At least a run.  Trumbo would have been sitting at second base with two out.

Thanks, guys. And thanks, Machado. What a maroon.

Adam Jones leading off? He doesn't exactly have a great OBP.
I guess they're still trying to figure out the Joey Rickard (cooled off)/Hyun-Soo Kim (on fire) situation.

Chris Davis is day to day with a Donaldson type thumb injury.
JJ Hardy has a broken foot.

I wonder if the Stro Show might benefit from a run of a few weeks in Buffalo.

How long before Stroman is back in the minors?

I think the best thing to happen to Stroman might be getting clobbered around. He has the repertoire to be a front of the rotation SP but for some reason seems to want to pitch to contact with his 2S emphasis. Let him get BABIP'ed to death by good offenses. At that point he either has to adjust (which he is more than capable of doing) or he'll continue to see results like this.

Being clobbered in Buffalo could be a good thing, but serving runs to Baltimore sure isn't.

Adam Jones leading off?

Jones had been scuffling (.223/.282/.357) and Showalter went to him and gave him the option of being dropped down in the order or hitting leadoff for a while. Jones opted to lead off, and he's hit .288/.310/.577 since.

"Being clobbered in Buffalo could be a good thing, but serving runs to Baltimore sure isn't."


Agreed, which is why Walker/Martin have to work with him to change up his approach if they want him to stay (and succeed) in the bigs. He hasn't looked good over his last few starts now, and I think it's entirely fixable.

Biagini got it done only because there were nobody on base.

As I'm just following along on Gameday, how did Joey manage to hurt himself drawing a walk? By the way, how exciting to have Aaron Loup, the man they gave away Danny Valencia to keep, back and in form.

Not just to keep. But to avoid sending down for two weeks.

WHIP  0.75  ERA  10.13

The magic of tiny sample sizes.

When was the last time a Blue Jay tripled on consecutive days?

Marcus Stroman is indeed pitching like a 5'8" RHP.

Here is Marco Estrada on his new approach to pitching. 90% of pitching is....

Generally, I'd like to see Stroman let Russ do a bit more of the gamecalling too.  Rightly or wrongly (and this very well might just be hindsight), it feels as if Stroman shakes Russ off a lot, which...well, let's hope that Walker/Martin take the reins a bit.  Giving up rocket ground ball after rocket ground ball ain't working so well right now.

I missed this from a couple of days ago.  Tom Tango is now the Senior Architect for MLB's Statcast. Congratulations, Tom!

Tom's comments in the link about the starting feet placement of fielders and a new metric are right on.  One of the things that we need to be thinking more about as these new metrics are devised is the reconciliation of individual and team defence statistics. Positioning is a really interesting thing now especially because it is a strange mixture of management and individual player decision (with different teams being more or less interventionist in different situations) with the trend being towards management. 

Bautista out for today with a hip flexor strain, and Tulo took a step back in rehab in extended.  Ezequiel Carrera leads off today.

Squander squander. Hope it doesn't bite you.

Orioles look really good. Maybe... Just a better team. Certainly a better hitting team. They can change their approach to the pitcher mid game. Don't think I've seen this Jays team do that.

The Orioles starting pitching seems very ordinary. Their bullpen gets the job done, which could be the difference in the series.

Givens is reminiscent of Jeff Nelson.

Chavez was like an inferior version of Stroman. Lotsa pitches, none of them particularly good.
I can't really say that anymore.

In the "less than accurate calls department", Buck said that key scoop was no problem for Davis.  Not exactly- he caught it in the heel of his glove.  It could have easily popped out.

That was a really solid outing from Storen.  He had the top 3 hitters of the Oriole order off-balance.

ALE is really beating up on the other divisions again.

You know Storen loves pitching last.
Storen got 3 outs on 5 strikes. I dunno if that's really good or just lucky.

The Jays got a respectable 10 hits and the Os only 4, yet it could have gone either way.

That was a really solid outing from Storen.

Three up and three down. First time he's done that in almost six weeks (May 2 against Texas was the last time.)

Best Divisions by Record

1.ALE .538
2.NLC .518
3.NLE .495
4.ALW .494
5.NLW .481
6.ALC .475

by run differential per game

1.ALE +0.35
2.NLC +0.29
3.ALW -0.04
4.NLW -0.10
5.NLE -0.23
6.ALC -0.26

1.ALE +0.35
6.ALC -0.26

Imagine without that first game in Detroit.

Russell Martin has a 116 wRC+ the past 30 days, lifting it to 55 on the season. Only Saunders is able to play today and has been better the past 30 days.

As bad as that 55 wRC+ sounds, there are 3 worse, at least 1 of whom will be in the lineup each game until Tulo returns. Goins is the "best" of that bunch at 26.

Thole is barely clinging to the Black Hole Award with his 9 wRC+, but Travis' 12 has him nipping at Thole's heels.

Things should get better (though how much is a legitimate question) as Goins, Travis and Thole sport BABIP of .188, .167 and .152 respectively.

With 1.0 fWAR so far (in 41 games and 125 PA), Barney is performing at roughly a 4 WAR pace this year. By way of comparison, Tulo has been a 0.2 fWAR player in 46 games and 190 PA.

It's pretty remarkable what Barney (salary: $1m) has done so far. He is helping the Jays stay relevant in the AL East.

Where's the swagger now, Jones?

I was going to echo my concerns of last night, citing my worries that the numerous early-inning squandered opportunities might exact a price. And alas, they have.

"It's pretty remarkable what Barney (salary: $1m) has done so far. He is helping the Jays stay relevant in the AL East."

Every team has a bench guy or two having a hot season, though.

Barney at second..hmm..wonder if the plan is to send Travis down for reps when Tulo returns

TOR: Barney 116wrc+/1.0war, Carrera 120wrc+/0.6war
BAL: Reimold 128wrc+/0.5war, Pena 185wrc+/0.3war
BOS: Shaw 112wrc+/1.4war, Young 151wrc+/0.5war, Rutledge 111wrc+/0.3war
TBR: Pearce 169wrc+/1.8war, Guyer 134wrc+/0.5war
NYY: ---

well, except for the yankees.

"Barney at second..hmm..wonder if the plan is to send Travis down for reps when Tulo returns"

if tulo was healthy now you might be right that travis would be in the minors.

don't think that issue comes up for anotber couple weeks, though....in which time travis is probably a bit closer back to being mlb ready.

sure hope we score here because Happ vs Machado/Davis/Trumbo for a 3rd time next inning is all sorts of scary.

Gotta say I'm liking Carrera's contribution to the team. He really has his bunt game going this year (4th bunt single of the season today), and adds some speed on the basepaths. Good on the team for recognizing his value, especially considering how much hate there was for him here in the early going.

I say that in spite of his getting caught stealing there.

New Happ suddenly isn't looking all that special. Though I'm sure we can count on an ERA around 4 going forward, which is solid enough for a 4th starter.

"Though I'm sure we can count on an ERA around 4 going forward"

With TOR

12-14 (29-31): 4.32era
2016 (33-33): 3.75era, 4.75fip, 4.50xfip

I'm pretty skeptical he can give us a 4era going forward.

Showalter bringing in his worst lefty to pitch to goins, thole, carrera with all of travis, martin, bautista on the bench is a bit of a gift.

that's more like it.

Yup. Bauxites should keep that decision in mind when they idealize other managers.

Not to say that Showalter is bad of course, but I'd say that decision was on par, if not worse than the one to put Leon in during that early Tampa series.

Good on the team for recognizing his value

If somebody in the organization knew that the guy with the 660 career OPS would give them an 820 OPS season, then yes, congratulations are definitely in order.

That 660 OPS (over five seasons, and around 650 ABs) is still better that what folks such as Ceciliani might have done.

Besides, he's 29 (supposedly part of a hitters offensive prime) and has been learning from some great hitters for a while. It wouldn't be at all surprising if he's improved his approach and is better than he was those past seasons. He seems to have learned to bunt really well, and also runs well which makes him useful as a pinch runner (which is very especially useful when we have so many slow guys on the team).

It's not that interesting, just worth pointing out given the level of hate he received early on.

With TOR

12-14 (29-31): 4.32era
2016 (33-33): 3.75era, 4.75fip, 4.50xfip

I'm pretty skeptical he can give us a 4era going forward.

2015 did of course exist, but it doesn't change the narrative that much, apart from offering a glimmer of hope. JA Happ's peripherals are looking like they did in 2014 and before, and his strikeouts per 9 are less than 6 which as about as bad as it has ever been (with a SO/W ratio of 2). 2016 is a small sample size, but you wouldn't be super optimistic about his performance going forward.

never ever easy this year.

clock striking 12 on Biagini maybe.

nice work as the temporary set up guy this year but unrealistic for a rookie to keep that role - now it's time for grilli and storen to step up, and cecil to get healthy.

Can we get a reliever in here please?

Oh thank god.

Mr Floyd, all is forgiven...

If Edwin can get it going we might finally be able to go on a little run

it's funny that nobody seems to have noticed that saunders has been our best hitter all year long, by a healthy margin.

Can we get a reliever in here please?

And your wish is Showalter's command. He brings in Duensing....

Who hasn't noticed???

"If Edwin can get it going we might finally be able to go on a little run"

yeah it's been a bit hidden becauze few have been great, but while donaldson and bautista have been subpar, they've still been very good (130+ wrc+), while Edwin, the third amigo, has struggled to stay much above league average....though with 2 good games in a row at least he's up to a decent 116wrc+ now.

2015 did of course exist, but it doesn't change the narrative that much

Indeed. Those two magical months in Pittsburgh look far more like an anomaly than a turning point.

After reading that piece Grilli wrote, I'm really pulling for him to establish himself as the official setup man.

Everybody has bad days and I still like Biagini to complete the year.
He still throws strikes, but the Orioles are good fastball hitters.

Floyd is just struggling to control his stuff.

I really like Grilli so far. Focused, not arguing with his catcher.
And he looks happy just for the opportunity to get something done.

Happ might have been throwing too high at times.
Would be nice if Sanchez can shut them down tomorrow.

Yeah, Carrera is hitting like an all-star or at least like he's back in AAA. Streamers and ZIPS weren't predicting this.
Also his defense has been better.

If both Edwin and Travis get in  a groove, things could get interesting, but some reliable relief pitching is what's really needed.

"....it's funny that nobody seems to have noticed that saunders has been our best hitter all year long, by a healthy margin...."

And the Jays essentially got him almost for free, since they obtained him for a player (Happ) whom they later reacquired.   Despite his injury of last year, it does look like a smart trade now.

Saunders should get the qualifying offer if he stays healthy all season. He's been very good.

"....If somebody in the organization knew that the guy with the 660 career OPS would give them an 820 OPS season, then yes, congratulations are definitely in order...."

I don't think that's really what Eudaimon was saying in his original comment.  He was saying that the Jays were smart to recognize Carrera's value, and they recognized that he MIGHT become better than his career numbers suggested. They showed faith in him when others didn't, which is probably due to shrewd scouting and coaching -- seeing a potential that others didn't quite see.  The Jays clearly didn't "expect" him to have an .820 OPS season, but they didn't "expect" that Bautista and Encarnacion would turn into offensive superstars either.  Of course I'm not comparing Carrera to those guys;  I'm just making the point that some veterans can out-perform their career numbers.  Good scouting can spot a player who might be under-valued elsewhere, and that's what the Jays did with Carrera.  They found more value in him than others did, and that's worthy of some praise.  When the Jays acquire an under-appreciated veteran (whether it's Edwin or Carrera or Saunders or whomever) and that veteran has an unexpectedly good season or two for the Jays, I don't think we should necessarily dismiss it as a fluke.  I don't think we should assume that a veteran is always going to be locked into his career numbers.  Good coaching can extract more value from a player, and giving him playing time can sometimes extract that value too.

When the Jays acquired Carrera in December 2014, his career OPS was .645.  He improved that to .673 last year, and now he's at .809.  That will probably regress, but by the end of the season he could still be a .700 OPS player or better, and that's good value for a back-up outfielder who is also the team's main pinch-runner.  It's also better than his pre-Toronto numbers, and yes, I think the Jays do deserve some (mild) kudos for recognizing that some degree of potential can exist among veterans, not just among prospects.

Give Carrera a more normal BABIP, and not his 415, and you take away 4 or 5 singles. All of a sudden his OPS is entirely in line with his career norms.

"...After reading that piece Grilli wrote, I'm really pulling for him to establish himself as the official setup man...."

I fully agree.  Before the game, Gibbons made it clear that Grilli is now his number-two high-leverage guy.  That suddenly puts him ahead of Biagini, Floyd, Storen, Chavez and everyone else who had the set-up role earlier in the season.

It's possible that Grilli earlier this year was somewhat demoralized by playing for a terrible last-place team, and now he's energized by playing for a playoff-contending team where he can be a key man in the bullpen.  That's a very speculative theory, and it's a small sample size, of course, so I could be totally wrong.  But it's interesting that Gibbons already assesses him as the second-most reliable high-leverage guy in the bullpen.  If he had been that good for Atlanta, the Jays wouldn't have been able to acquire him for almost nothing, as they did.

It's been amazing to see the rapid turnover in the set-up men. At the beginning of the season, it was supposed to be Storen and Cecil in the set-up role.  They were terrible, so Gibbons turned to Floyd and Biagini. Both of those guys have had problems in recent weeks (although Floyd has returned to good form in his past 3 outings), so they were dumped from the set-up role.  Chavez was sporadically tried in the set-up role, and didn't do very well either.  So now it's Grilli.  Quite unexpected, but then the bullpen has been completely unpredictable all season.

This quote from the ESPN game recap helps explain Showalter's bullpen decisions in today's game:

McFarland took the brunt of Toronto's late surge because Baltimore manager Buck Showalter was resting relievers Brad Brach, Dylan Bundy and Mychal Givens.

"That's why they're good and that's why they're healthy," Showalter said, acknowledging that Baltimore may have to call up reinforcements for Sunday's series finale.

Games against the AL East:

BAL 24
BOS 29
NYY 27
TB 24
TOR 38

IOW the Jays have played by far the most games against the best division in MLB

Though I'm sure we can count on an ERA around 4 going forward"

Happ is our 4/5 guy. Seven innings with 4 earned runs against a top offensive team is still acceptable for a 4/5 type. It's Stro that has to turn it around fast. 5'8" pitchers with 2 seamers up in the zone are a worry. But he'll do it..hopefully soon.

And the Jays essentially got him almost for free, since they obtained him for a player (Happ) whom they later reacquired.   Despite his injury of last year, it does look like a smart trade now.

They could have signed anybody else instead of Happ. I don't see how that makes Saunders a free acquisition.
They traded one year of Happ for 2 years of Saunders. Saunders was injured and barely played last year, so they really only got one year of Saunders for one year of Happ. Ironically they now have both players.

Seven innings with 4 earned runs against a top offensive team is still acceptable for a 4/5 type.

A few things:
* 4 ER in 7 IP is an ERA of 5.14
* you give up 3 HR in 7 IP and you're likely to give up more than 4 runs
* Baltimore is all of 0.3 R/G better than average, so not exactly a juggernaut

Maybe not the leader in runs per games, but they are the leader in homeruns per game, so giving up 3 homeruns against them is not the end of the world.

Happ challenged Rickard with a high fastball and he turned on it. That's life.
Happ just needs to be careful with the walks and he should be fine. He's already got 7 wins.

Give Carrera a more normal BABIP, and not his 415, and you take away 4 or 5 singles. All of a sudden his OPS is entirely in line with his career norms.

What is a normal BABIP for a player who 20 bunt hits the past 2 seasons, with around a 45% success rate?

What is a normal BABIP for a player who 20 bunt hits the past 2 seasons, with around a 45% success rate?

Not sure, but does .400 feel reasonable? Last year it was .349.

Ichiro Suzuki's career BABIP is .340 with a season best of .399 (though he's much faster than Carrera and legged out tons of infield hits).

Brett Butler's career BABIP was .319 with a season best of .347.

I imagine it's a bit higher than that of someone who can't bunt that well. He's probably not going to BABIP 400 all season, but given his speed and bunt skills he should be able to maintain something in the mid 300s (career BABIP of .332) which makes him a serviceable backup.

Some were wanting to see Ceciliani as the backup to start the season. He currently has a sub 600 OPS in AAA.

this probably isn't even the best 75pa stretch of Carrera's career.

he's been about a league average bat over the last 3yrs, which is a solid bench bat. problem is it comes with shoddy degense.

Biagini pitched better than his line would indicate and Floyd pitched worse.

Biagini entered with a 9-4 lead to start the eighth.  He grooved a fastball to Joey Rickard who lined a single to left to open the inning.  There are worse things you can do in that situation.  He made a nice pitch to Machado and had him way off balance as he hit a short fly to left.  Saunders botched it in epic fashion- coming in (correctly) for the play (which was fairly routine) and then bizarrely stopping as if the score was 9-8 and he desperately wanted to avoid the extra base hit.  Nonetheless the ball bounced over his head.  He then threw to the wrong base, and it was runners on 2nd and 3rd.  Biagini's approach to hot-hitting Chris Davis was a little cautious for my liking- he walked him on a 3-2 pitch that was an arguable strike on the inside corner at the top of the zone.  Trumbo then lined a pitch away over Travis' head.  Four batters, four men on base, but I'd mark it down as a combination of mediocre pitching, good hitting, poor fielding and a call that didn't go his way. 

Floyd came on to face Schoop with the bases loaded in a 9-5 game.  Schoop just missed a heater down the middle hitting a fly to center that saw all runners advance.  Floyd then walked Kim to reload the bases and bring the go-ahead run to the plate.  While Kim was batting, Matt Wieters grabbed a bat to pinch-hit for Pena, but Showalter decided to give him the entire day off.  Pena hit sharply into a double play on a hittable pitch to end the inning.

Saunders' knee problems, like Melky Cabrera's, seem to have affected him defensively.  He's hitting better than he ever has in his career and may very well have a long run as a DH beginning in a few years.

Pillar should be backing the corner outfielders who should be able to go for the ball, unless the outfield is playing back which would make not sense on that play. At least Saunders had a good day at the plate.

With Rickard I'd want to get a first pitch fastball over the plate and then throw everything off-speed. like Grilli did.

Well, unless I was Aaron Sanchez.

I find that it is impossible to tell whether the Orioles are a good team, as their schedule hasn't been so much soft as mushy. Going into this series, the O's had played 35 out of 58 games at home, and had played only 21 games against AL East rivals. (The Jays had played 35 games against their own division, and are now at 38.)

While I understand why Showalter wanted to rest his bullpen and give Wieters a day off, yesterday's treatment of McFarland looked harsh, as if he was being punished for something. And it's probably worth trying your best to win against a divisional rival, don't you know.

The bullpen gave up about the same number of hits and runs as it usually does, but the Jays had a big lead this time - the best way to have a successful bullpen is to score lots of runs in the late innings.

Grilli was so happy when he successfully closed out the game - it's pretty cool when a 39 year old guy can still get excited about the game of baseball. And I didn't realize that Gary Sheffield was his agent (I didn't know that Sheffield had become an agent).

All those sac flys were really nice yesterday.

Here's how their current numbers compare to their 2.5yr split (2014-16):

Bautista: .259babip, 150wrc+ --> .238babip, 130wrc+
En'cion: .261babip, 144wrc+ ---> .253babip, 116wrc+
Donaldson: .292babip, 140wrc+ -> .268babip, 134wrc+
Saunders: .348babip, 132wrc+ --> .383babio, 153wrc+
Tulo: .324babip, 120wrc+ -----> .232babip, 80wrc+
Martin: .293babip, 115wrc+ ---> .268babip, 56wrc+
Travis: .308babip, 110wrc+ ---> .159babip, 7wrc+
Smoak: .272babip, 99wrc+ -----> .356babip, 115wrc+
Pillar: .304babip, 89wrc+ ----> .287babip, 77wrc+

Carrera: .359babip, 95wrc+ ---> .411babip, 125wrc+
Barney: .290babip, 94wrc+ ----> .350babip, 118wrc+
Goins: .267babip, 61wrc+ -----> .196babip, 35wrc+
Thole: .262babip, 49wrc+ -----> .143babip, 4wrc+

looks to me like most all the variations are babip related, other than EE and Martin.

Some were wanting to see Ceciliani as the backup to start the season. He currently has a sub 600 OPS in AAA.

Guilty as charged, and while both will likely return to career norms sooner or later, I'm happy to admit that I was wrong on Zeke.  I liked him when we signed him, but that's because I was looking at his speed and OBP in Toledo that season - watching him play D up close has been ugly at times.  Interesting, Fangraphs had him as 5 defensive runs below average last year, but roughly plus one this year. 

Barney I thought was a good move with Travis injured - I saw him in a platoon with Goins, but he seems to want to be a regular again -  the kid is tied with Jose for fWAR, ahead of Edwin. 

To annoy everyone, I just read an article about James Paxton and how he is key to Seattle's success this year. Frustrating for us Jay fans. Paxton was drafted by the Jays and was close to signing according to reports but the Jays wouldn't move (the spread was rumoured to be around $100k). The following year with the replacement pick the Jays took Noah Syndergaard. Double ouch there. That 2010 draft the Jays also took Aaron Sanchez (currently in the rotation doing well) and Asher Wojciechowski (3 picks after Thor who was pick #38, Woj #41). In a perfect world the Jays would now have Paxton, Sanchez, Syndergaard (via Woj's slot) as the young aces along with 2012 first rounder Marcus Stroman. That would've been a sweet young rotation. Of course they probably don't get to the playoffs last year in that case (no Dickey who was an ace in the 2nd half) but boy would this year be exciting.

Heck, for more fun.. in 2013 they drafted Phil Bickford but again came up just short in signing him. Without Dickey and a few others they might have sucked in 2015 or at least not felt like they could win that year thus keeping prospects Matt Boyd, Daniel Norris, and Jeff Hoffman. Of course, that would mean SS would be Jose Reyes (ugh) with Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney probably getting tons of play time like they are anyways.

Imagine the dreams of a killer kid rotation with that crew right now. Of course, if the Jays missed the playoffs last year and had sucked royally in 2013/4 (no Dickey would've hurt both years) they might have traded away Bautista and EE by now too. And after the wasted 90's where we had Chris Carpenter, Pat Hentgen, Kelvim Escobar, Roy Halladay, and Roger Clemens not to mention Carlos Delgado, Shawn Green, Vernon Wells, and Alex Rios. I have no interest in the team hording talent in the dream of it all gelling at the right time again.

Well Paxton is 27, and has spent most of his career - and most of this year - in the minors.

Before someone else notices - yes, Vernon didn't reach the majors until 1999 and Clemens left after 1998.

One looks at 1998 as the last real chance before 2015 for the playoffs and geez was that team stacked. Shannon Stewart, Jose Cruz, Shawn Green in the outfield all 24/25. Delgado was just 26. Carpenter was 23, Halladay 21, Escobar 22 with vets Clemens, Hentgen, Guzman, Stieb. How did Ash manage to screw that up so badly with more talent coming in Wells, Billy Koch (good closer for a few years)? Rhetorical question btw as that ground has been covered here many, many times.

Hopefully 2016 will see a good charge in the 2nd half and we get more playoff baseball.

Stroman 25
Sanchez 23
Osuna 21
Hutch 25
(Greene 21/Reid-Foley 20/Zeuch 20/Harris 22/Perdomo 22/Rios 21)

that's a sweet young rotation.

Agreed Ugly, Hutch has tons of upside - one year of frustrating home losses and an ERA much worse than suggested by his peripherals and people are done with the guy?

Not sure I see Osuna in the rotation though, as much as I'd like to see it - how would you handle his transition?

nothing to handle imo. just put him in the rotation.

heck, he might be the best of them all.

I think they have to keep Osuna in the pen and Estrada/Happ in the rotation.
For one more year at least.

His last two years starting he had ERAs of 5.53 and 6.55 in A ball. Didn't pitch deep into ballgames either.

You've gotta work Osuna's innings up first no?  Start him in the rotation and move him to the pen or something?  Have that mythical sixth starter that Hutch was supposed to be for us help to manage his innings?

Frankly, I wish we were using our starter depth more creatively this year as well - Chavez as a legit long reliever, like Mike Green's tandem starter idea, preventing Dickey and Happ from going through the rotation a third time, Hutch getting more call-ups. 

If Chavez is just a middle reliever, why give up five years of control over Liam Hendricks for him (who, admittedly, sucked before going on the DL for the As)?  The org must have known it was possible that Sanchez would emerge as a starter.  

"You've gotta work Osuna's innings up first no? "

what does "work innings up" mean?

"His last two years starting he had ERAs of 5.53 and 6.55 in A ball. Didn't pitch deep into ballgames either."

that was because of his injury:

2013 (18yrs old, Lansing A Ball - 2yrs young for the level):

First 7gms: 33.1ip, 2.43era, 2.85fip
Last 3gms: 9.0ip, 17.00era, 6.89fip

He dominated as per usual to tart the year, despite being way young for the level, but was injured in that 3rd last game, tried to pitch thru it for a couple more starts and then went for TJ.

2014 (19yrs old, Dunedin A+ Ball - 2yrs young for the level):

First 4gms: 11.1ip, 7.47era, 4.60fip
Last 3gms: 10.2ip, 2.61era, 2.33fip

Took him a little while to get his command back upon returning from injury but once he did he was right back to his dominant self.

Hasn't Osuna said that he prefers relieving? He likes it, he's great at it, let's leave him there.

Loving the start to this ballgame! Let's tire out that bullpen.

what does "work innings up" mean?

Build up his arm, IP totals, get him ready for the rigours of starting.

does it matter where he does that?

The shift with a runner at second? And Saunders got himself a hit anyway with the bases empty.

"Orioles look really good. Maybe... Just a better team. Certainly a better hitting team."

nah.

I hope Sanchez's last inning.

... is this one.

It will be. This will be his last batter!

"nah."

Next time save your smugness for the end of the game, maybe.

Gibby? Earth to Gibby?

106 pitches. Gibby does not trust the pen.

Any thoughts on where this team will be at game 100?

It seems like they could go either way...

"Any thoughts on where this team will be at game 100?"

50-50, just like last year and every year before it.

Gibby? Earth to Gibby?

Trying to get Sanchez the win he was owed in his previous start.

106 pitches in 5 innings, which included letting Sanchez give up 3 home runs, a double, and a walk in the 5th inning alone just so he could get through 5 with the lead.

Thats not watching his workload.

Given the mess that is this bullpen I support Gibby's desire to get Sanchez to pitch at least five innings. Let's hope the offense can tack of a few more runs, cuz I don't like our odds at preserving a one-run lead over four more innings.

Oh, and yes, never be condescending towards a team. At least until the game is actually over.

id rather see Sanchez battle through it then Venditte.  Im listening not watching but it sounds like the wind is really doing a number on him. 

And this Jays team is definitely a better hitting team than the Orioles, results thus far be damned. 

Ugly, if you want Osuna starting next year, IMO we should be getting him more innings this year, not using him in a conventional closer role.  Agreed with you that getting as many innings out of him as a starter next year makes sense - I'm not down with having ready for prime time guys playing in AAA. 

Success in the pen doesn't automatically translate to success in the rotation.
Just look at Sanchez, his changeup doesn't seem good enough to use when he needs it.

When the balls go out like they did today off Sanchez, I don't think you can blame the wind.

lol.what a game.

Nice series win. The opener was very winnable as well, so it could have been a sweep, can't complain about 3/4 against the O's.

Fun game to win.  Without Jimenez being completely wild, it would have been quite different.

Damn good series. Glad we were able to give Osuna a bit of a rest... Grilli looked good to me. He didn't have the best control, but he had enough stuff to get through it. I think a better outfielder than Saunders could have caught that first hit, and Chris Davis definitely looked like he struck out (called a check swing for ball four). That ball hit to Carrera was dangerous though.

So that was a series.

16-7 since getting swept by the rays. That's a good clip.

And only a half game out of the wild card...

"Next time save your smugness for the end of the game, maybe."

nah.

Now they need a good showing against the Phillies and this resumes at Camden Yards on Friday.

MLB wRC+ Leaders

1. D.Ortiz 196
2. D.Murphy 174
3. M.Trout 162
4. J.Altuve 162
5. M.Saunders 158

amazing win.  I dissed Carrera's D right before that catch, so I'm gonna give him another chance to impress the eye test. 

not much action in the draft threads ... how do you guys think we did?  I'm giving it a B+ ... I'm happy to watch Parker's team focus on athletecism, helium, scouting and 'unsignable' players ... lots of faith in the teams scouting, despite what appears to be something of a miss last year. 

but you did

I am regretting my earlier ill-considered suggestions that Drew Hutchison might have trade value.  Keeping him is a better idea.  The Jays might need him in the rotation before too long.  I'm not sure who he would replace, or whether he should just be inserted for a couple of spot starts to provide some additional breathing room for Sanchez and Happ and Stroman.  But he could be quite a useful pitcher for the Jays as the daily grind gets heavier.  The Jays are starting to morph into some kind of a variant on the 2015 team:  good hitting, adequate pitching.  And if that's the team that they are becoming, every good pitcher will be needed, even Hutch.

red sox lose. we're 2.5gms back of 1st, and boston and balty play each other for 3gms while we have a 4gm set vs philly, before playing balty again on the weekend.

great chance to make a move.

"....Saunders' knee problems, like Melky Cabrera's, seem to have affected him defensively...."

Yes.  There have been a few games where Gibbons has brought in Carrera to replace Saunders in the late innings when the Jays held the lead.  If he sees Carrera as better than Saunders defensively, it does suggest some deterioration by Saunders.

"....Fangraphs had him (Carrera) as 5 defensive runs below average last year, but roughly plus one this year...."

Impressionistlcally, by the eye test, Carrera has looked a little better this year.   Not sure if it has much significance, but it's nice when he makes a great catch, as he did in the 9th inning today.

but you did

Not sure I get this, but it seems to be a smug reply to someone falsely accused of smugness.  Weak.  You don't like someone's ideas?  Engage.  Don't troll.

Texas is leading Seattle by a 6-1 score in the 6th inning.  If they hang on, the Jays move into a tie for the final playoff spot.   Which is a lot better than what most of us were feeling about this team a few weeks ago.

Detroit was a disaster. It's nice that they recovered.
The offense, anyway.

My take on Carrera's defence is that he's got good speed and inconsistent ball reads / jumps, making him an about average corner outfielder and a poor center fielder. The numbers from the past few years may back this up, though I have a hard time understanding advanced fielding metrics at this point. He'll make some great plays, and also some boneheaded ones.

Osuna was feeling sore today. Could it have anything to do with the fact that he's tied for 7th in the league in appearances? Gibbons does seem to work his favourite relievers extremely hard, perhaps to their long-term detriment.

Not sure I get this

Really? I was pointing out that the riposte was held off until after the game was won (barely)

oh was that directed at me? funny.... though i'll still take "barely" taking 3 of 4 without bautista :)

eudaimon - imo carrera's glove is also inconsistent to weak - he doesn't always catch the balls he gets to (though he's only had 1 or 2 of those kind of flubs this year, unlike last year).

Really? I was pointing out that the riposte was held off until after the game was won (barely)

I don't recall anything that you've said on the box ever, until this point, baagcur. 

It just feels like 'heaping on' the obvious target - uglyone - because he or she seems to have a different opinion from the mainstream.

If you want to criticize the frequent posters - the ones that make this sight enjoyable - post frequently.  Or even once in a while.  Don't just troll. 

Like I said, Weak. 

April

BAL 14-9 .609 ---
BOS 14-10 .583 0.5
TBR 11-12 .478 3.0
TOR 11-14 .440 4.0
NYY 8-14 .364 5.5

Since

TOR 24-16 .600 ---
BOS 22-16 .568 1.0
BAL 22-17 .564 1.5
NYY 23-18 .561 1.5
TBR 18-20 .474 5.0

The Jays were last in the AL in team BABIP prior to today's game.  They undoubtedly passed the Yankees after they had some luck to go with some hard hit balls to the wall for doubles. 

The view from 229 today:

1.  Aaron Sanchez is still a pup- he needs to learn to conserve energy a bit by not chasing down pop flies in foul territory (with a large lead yet), dashing out to the mound at warp speed and so on. 
2.  The home runs from Martin and Pillar were no-doubters- Martin's home run to center field was in particular an excellent sign. 
   
3.  The dome was rocking even if it was Country Day- I'll bet that the club leads the league in attendance by the end of the year
4.  Encarnacion is basically a month behind- spring training was April this year; April was May and May is June; maybe he doesn't need a day off after all
   

Carrera is, or should be, similar to Ben Revere. He stole a lot of bases in the minor leagues.
He just never got on base enough in the big leagues to do that.

Maybe not, but there's a couple of games in Philadelphia without a DH coming up. I'd trade a reliever for an extra outfielder if Bats isn't back by then.

with smoak coming back down to earth, carrera (and pompey) hitting, and bautista getting muscle strains and saunders needing regular rest i really wouldn't mind moving towards bautista/saunders/ee sharing the 1b/dh slots like we've talked about.

Pompey is hitting .421 (16/38) over his last 10 games with a 6:6 K:BB ratio. With Bautista likely to be limited through these next 4 games vs. PHI (2 of them are NL games) now might be a good time to revert back to a 7 man bullpen.

"If you want to criticize the frequent posters - the ones that make this sight enjoyable - post frequently."

Jer, lol, are you saying that a poster needs to post frequently if they want to criticize frequent posters?

So if I post 100 times a day, someone who only posts once a day can't criticize me? Am I understanding you correctly?

I'm sure someone has pointed it out but the bullpen helped the Jays improve their record in one run games once again!

"seems to have a different opinion from the mainstream."

Is that me?

Here I thought my opinion was just that the awesome team we had last year was still pretty good.

is the mainstream opinion something different? should it be?

IMO, there is a strong undercurrent of negativity around the Box, one that I may contribute to at times, for which I'm sorry.

So no Ugly, you should keep on keeping on, despite people randomly surfacing to take shots at your optimism - optimism which you support with factual evidence that I sincerely enjoy -  as, doubtless, many posters do.  Plenty of posters also chose to support their pessimistic view evidentially.  I may disagree, but I enjoy those posts as well.  

Pubster, you are indeed hilarious.  of course you are not interpreting my statements correctly.  You are trolling me ... 

That's the beauty of online discourse - the record is there for all to see. 

Yesterday was as beautifully awesome a win as this team will get.  When someone surfaces with a smug 'gotcha', it doesn't add anything to the discourse - so I was inviting bagcuur to do more than just troll. 

Bringing up Pompey for the Phillies series seems an excellent idea. Even though Thole sucks, I'd like to see Martin get more rest. Happy to see Osuna get some rest, worried that Gibbons is overusing him.

I think the team's best lineup is definitely Pompey in the OF and Bautista at 1B/DH, but whether he (Bautista) would be up for it is the question. I like Smoak at 1B, maybe more than his performance has warranted, but taking JB out of the outfield and adding more athletcism/speed out there would definitely help the team defense. Plus with the way Pompey is starting to hit in the minors, he could help in that area as well.

I've always liked the idea of using DH to rest regulars, as that seems like the best utilization of the spot, and the Jays happen to have a few guys who could benefit from the DH spot occasionally to stay healthy (JB, Saunders, and obviously Edwin).

Saunders needs more rest than just DHing here and there.
His knee is high maintenance.

I wonder how Saunders would look at first next year? Encarnacion and Bautista could both be gone - Smoak too - which leaves Colabello as the only guy on this year's team with any experience there. It's too early to count on anything from a guy like Tellez, and there isn't really anyone else to expect much from. If Saunders continues to hit anywhere near his current level, his bat would play anywhere, and as mentioned above, he needs to rest those knees more to stay healthy.

On the other hand, the Jays could just ride him hard this year and then let him walk (or hobble?) as Smoak might be a better bet going forward anyway - the Jays might be able to keep him at a reasonable cost simply by promising him a starting job.

"Saunders needs more rest than just DHing here and there."


Absolutely. His knee has scared me since the off-season, but so far he's been able to hold up. With Carrera on a hot streak, a bit more days off for Saunders would make sense, but at the end of the day they'll need his bat out there more often than not. He's been excellent so far.

A full-time move to 1B for him would be an interesting experiment. Won't happen in 2016 obviously, but long-term it would benefit him.

#2JB, Scott Diamond is coming to the Blue Jays and the opportunities are endless:
"Diamond is a Gibby's best friend"
"He comes across like Diamond, Diamond"
"Popfly in the sky with Diamond"
and my favourite...
"This Diamond Ring"

I imagine that Pat Venditte is headed back down.  It was fun while it lasted- watching the O's flail away at his 71-73 mph slider and his 83 mph heat.

""Saunders needs more rest than just DHing here and there."

with a bench of Smoak and carrera/Pompey resting him regularly wouldn't be a problem i don't think.

How about "Diamonds are Temporary"?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi

Jays with the toughest sked in baseball by far, and top 5 team in baseball by their RPI as a result.

compared to the division:

SOS

1.TOR .524
6.NYY .506
7.BAL .506
12.BOS .502
13.TBR .501

RPI

4.TOR .527
5.BAL .524
6.BOS .521
12.NYY .503
20.TBR .495

The other interesting sched comparison at least against Baltimore is home vs away games. Jays have played an equal amount of both whereas Baltimore has played 8 games more at home, and to date has a sub 500 road record. hopefully that will play in the Jays favour.

And speaking of home and away records, KC is 731 at home and 333 on the road. Sure timing can be an issue- injuries or ruts on long road trips- but yikes!!

nice - didn't realize the home and away splits.

in other news.....

Russell Martin

First 98pa: 8wrc+
Last 99pa: 115wrc+

"How about "Diamonds are Temporary"?"

Sorry Mike, gotta go with uo.

So Jer, when you write:

"If you want to criticize the frequent posters - the ones that make this site enjoyable - post frequently."

What do you mean?

I like Diamonds are Temporary too.  He is a left-hander, so Shine on you crazy diamond also works. Nevermind, #2JB will figure it out.

#2JB, Scott Diamond is coming to the Blue Jays and the opportunities are endless.

The Outfield had an album called "Diamond Days".

In other news, the Jays have unveiled their new Canada Day uniforms.

Pubster, for the sake of us all, how about you and I just agree not to talk to each other? Send me an email if you'd like, I believe that's an option for the site.

You can get Diamonds by the yard...
All the Diamonds in the world that mean anything...
Shine on, you crazy diamond

And of course

The Diamond dogs have poached eggs that they hide behind cheese

Lol Jer you cant answer a simple question?

I guess when you have a terrible argument its probably the best route to go.

I have a feeling you'll be sitting in the nose bleeds for a very long time =)

you are such a dick pubster.  I already answered your question, BTW, you just don't seem to be bright enough to understand.