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Remember when these guys were in the NL and awful? Where does the time go...



After a successful series against the Orioles and a successful-ish homestand overall, the Bluebirds hit the highway for a big road trip. First stop is a four game set in hot Houston (in that their team is red-hot and Houston is also a warm place). The Astros went on a nice little run for about a month and a half but have lost 5 of their last 6, including a series sweep against the Tigers in which they were completely steamrolled twice. This is a big stretch of games for them as well, as they're chasing Toronto in the Wild Card standings and have a series with the Rangers immediately after, whom they're six games back of in the NL West race. Man, being in pennant races is kinda fun.

Matchups!

MON 8:10 -- Stroman (8-4, 4.92) v. To Be Determined Man!
TUE 8:10 -- Dickey (7-12, 4.66) v. McCullers (6-4, 3.14)
WED 8:10 -- Estrada (6-4, 3.02) v. McHugh (7-7, 4.42)
THUR 8:10 -- Happ (14-3, 3.16) v. Fiers (7-4, 4.42)

Watch Out For...

Jose Altuve. Duh. The little man is a big monster.

Former Blue Jay Watch

Colby Rasmus is having a classic Rasmusy season: a helping of homeruns and a buffet of strikeouts. Yet by WAR measures he's been one of the most valuable Astros primarily because of his outfield defense. Which... yeah all right. Former prospect Jake Marisnick is also around and still hasn't learned to hit yet.

Trade Starffs

As of now (2:30 on Monday) the Jays have not made a deadline day deal yet. There were rumblings about Rich Hill and Josh Reddick from the A's, but both of them are on their way to the Dodgers because the Dodgers would trade for everybody if they could. My beloved Cincinnati Reds who are bad but not dreadful, have decided to go full speed ahead into dreadful and have potentially unloaded Jay Bruce to the Mets. Works for me. Shortstop Zack Cozart may also be in play, with the Mariners showing strong interest. Also some weird news out of Miami as they've decided to send Colin Rea (included in the Cashner deal) back to the Padres after he hurt his elbow in his first appearance as a Marlin. Anyhow, I'm sure more stuff will happen/has already happened as I write this, and if so disregard my ramblings. Disregard!

UPDATE: Something about Ervin Santana and the Blue Jays? Maybe? I dunno.

UPDATE UPDATE: So Toronto adds Scott Feldman, Mike Bolsinger (straight to AAA for you fella) and the elusively interesting Francisco Liriano. Gone are Jesse Chavez, Drew Hutchison and an A-ball prospect with an awesome name. This is a front office that does seem to like buying low on players with proven records of recent success, such as Grilli or Benoit.


Oh yeah, the Astros.

Be nice to win a few.

August 1-4: Going Back To Houston, Do The Hot Dog Dance | 286 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Chuck - Monday, August 01 2016 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#327726) #
Colby Rasmus is having a classic Rasmusy season

I don't foresee another QO in his immediate future. Houston may well elect to pursue him as a FA, though, since they're not exactly teeming with quality outfielders. Gomez has gone from bad to worse. Marisnick is just moored at worse. And Colby seems to like life -- clap, clap, clap, clap -- deep in the heart of Texas. You know, clear eyes, full hearts. That sort of thing. And deep fried chicken and country music and pickup trucks and open carry.

China fan - Monday, August 01 2016 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#327733) #
Discussion of today's trade deals is, so far, located on the previous Baltimore-series thread, unless it gets a thread of its own.
uglyone - Monday, August 01 2016 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#327742) #
tulo takkng groundballs pregame.
China fan - Monday, August 01 2016 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#327748) #
If the Jays saved anything on airfare by obtaining Feldman while he was in the same ballpark, they blew the savings by flying in two players from the Buffalo roster today:  Goins and Schultz.   If Tulo goes on the DL, they can activate both of them.  If Tulo stays on the roster and seems able to play defence in an emergency, the Jays could perhaps activate Schultz instead of Goins, to reinforce their bullpen.  But if Tulo really can't play at all, they'll be in a dilemma -- they should activate Goins, but that leaves the bullpen shorthanded, since Chavez and Morales are both gone and Feldman threw 38 pitches yesterday.  So maybe Schultz gets the nod in that scenario.
China fan - Monday, August 01 2016 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#327770) #
I had forgotten that Schultz cannot be activated unless he's replacing someone who's going on the DL.  (That's because it's been less than 10 days since his demotion to Buffalo.)  So this makes it much more likely that the Jays are probably planning to put Tulo on the DL, and they'll activate both Schultz and Goins. 
Magpie - Monday, August 01 2016 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#327778) #
Carrera goes to the DL, so Schultz takes his roster spot. Goins is called up and replaces Morales. Feldman replaces Chavez.
China fan - Monday, August 01 2016 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#327779) #
So the Jays solved today's roster crunch by putting Carrera on the DL with "fake mystery ailment."  That allowed them to activate both Goins and Schultz, while allowing Tulo to avoid the DL for now anyway.   (Schultz could only be activated if he replaced someone on the DL, so the Jays had to put someone on the DL, and that ended up being Ezequiel.  They don't want to lose him from the team, but they don't need him with Upton available.)
bpoz - Monday, August 01 2016 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#327805) #
Thanks CF and Magpie for the update and explanation.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, August 01 2016 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#327812) #
Thursday's pitcher for the Jays is TBD ? Wouldn't it be Happ, or does this mean the Jays start Feldman or Liriano to give Sanchez an extra day of rest ?
China fan - Monday, August 01 2016 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#327839) #
Lost in all of today's trade news was another piece of very important news:  Gibbons disclosed that Tulo is much better today, will avoid the DL and should be back in the lineup in a day or two.  That's huge for the Jays.  They dodged a bullet.   Yesterday we were fearful that he would be gone for several weeks.
Richard S.S. - Monday, August 01 2016 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#327867) #
Deadline Deals did get it's own thread, almost 100 comments. So who does Liriano replace tomorrow?
hypobole - Monday, August 01 2016 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#327869) #
I was just waiting for Martin to finish his AB before posting about the 16 scoreless innings wasting a couple of excellent starts by Sanchez and Stroman.

Thanks Russ.
uglyone - Monday, August 01 2016 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#327871) #
would be nice to see donaldson and tulo pinch hit this inning.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 12:22 AM EDT (#327873) #
So in the end Martins HR just chewed up our bullpen for 5 innings plus.

Painful on so many levels.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 12:27 AM EDT (#327874) #
I cringed inwardly when Martin hit that homerun. My first thought was, oh good, now it'll go fifteen innings and the bullpen will be burnt to the ground and they'll probably lose it anyway.

Of couse I was wrong: it only went 14 innings.

That was horrific.

Magpie - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 12:32 AM EDT (#327875) #
Feldman wasn't supposed to be available after pitching two innings yesterday. Desperate times, but was there an issue with Grilli?
Four Seamer - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 12:43 AM EDT (#327876) #
Couldn't really blame Gibby if he decided there was no point in burning Grilli, too, since that hacktastic offence looked like it could have gone 30 innings tonight without plating another run. Between Canada Day and today, if they go into extra innings on Labour Day I'm going to pull the plug right then and there.
ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 01:15 AM EDT (#327878) #
I could understand "One-run John" (11-19, same as the Twins) sitting Josh with a runner on earlier in extras and hitting Goins instead to give Josh the day off, but it didn't really make sense when he brought Donaldson in later to hit for Goins. "One-run John' is now 11-19 in one-run games and 4-8 in extra inning games. As long as the Blue Jays aren't planning on winning any one-run games or extra-inning games in the future they should be fine
Four Seamer - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 01:33 AM EDT (#327879) #
Yeah, I considered it awfully curious that with two out and a runner on first in the 9th, Goins was allowed to hit (if that's what his plate appearances can be called) for himself, but later in extras with two out and nobody on, Gibby sent Donaldson up. Not that the earlier opportunity necessarily carried a lot of promise, but if he was available to play surely it made more sense to bring Donaldson in there.
Four Seamer - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 01:46 AM EDT (#327881) #
In any event, hopefully his pinch-hitting duties do not necessitate another full day off tomorrow, given Buck and Pat's report that his five unscheduled innings at third base on Sunday were the reason for his sitting out today. Maybe Gibby is a learner by example and is just following the lead of all the managers who provided him with lots of rest in his playing career.
scottt - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 05:48 AM EDT (#327882) #
13 Ks by Stroman. 22 by the Jays hitters.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 07:40 AM EDT (#327883) #
I hope Bautista enjoyed his unnecessary ego stroking in Spring Training because he's been painfully mediocre this season (0.6 WAR, 113 wRC+). I can't see him accepting the QO unless he gets hurt or finishes so badly that he wants another year to boost his value, but either way, he's not getting the money he thought he would.

Can't blame the pen the last two games. They did their jobs. The offense the last two games has been horrendous. Even after Martin tied it you got a sense that the Astros were winning regardless.
China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#327887) #
"....if he was available to play surely it made more sense to bring Donaldson in there...."

He wasn't really available.  And his injury won't heal if he's constantly being brought into "situations."  I don't blame Gibbons for doing everything possible to get some rest for Donaldson, and using him only when it's deep into extra innings and the rest of the team is fatigued.  It's for the long-term benefit of having Donaldson back to full strength as soon as possible.
China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#327888) #
"..."One-run John' is now 11-19 in one-run games and 4-8 in extra inning games....."

It's ridiculous to blame Gibbons for one-run losses or extra-inning losses without examining the actual causes of those losses. And when you bother to examine the causes of those losses, like the past two games, it's obvious that the main reason was the team's poor hitting.  That's not something Gibbons can control.  Management has provided him with a lineup of hitters and he has to run them out there.  Recently those hitters have been sabotaging the team's chances of victory.  A few examples of the poor hitting:

Jose Bautista -- OPS of .536 since returning from injury.
Michael Saunders -- OPS of .702 since being voted onto the all-star team.
Justin Smoak -- OPS of .639 since the beginning of June.

And of course two of his best hitters, Donaldson and Tulo, have been injured.

In those circumstances, with the hitting so poor, it's impressive that the Jays still came close to winning the past two games.  A timely hit would have given them victory in either of those games.

A manager has much more impact on bullpen decisions than on team hitting, and the bullpen has been generally excellent in those losses. The bullpen kept the Jays close enough to have won both games if they'd gotten a timely hit or two.  I wouldn't expect the Gibbons-haters to give him any credit for that, of course.
grjas - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#327889) #
I can't blame Gibbons. This is gut check time with Tulo, donaldson and JB all hurting. With three runs in 26 innings, to date the rest of the cast has failed miserably.

On the other hand, Stroman's outing is huge.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#327891) #

Colby Rasmus is having a classic Rasmusy season

or is it Rasmussian? I guess it depends if you are a francophile or a russophile. Not sure that Colby is either.

I hope that Pompey and Barnes are on a flight to Houston.  With Carrera on the DL and both Saunders and Bautista not fit for full-time play (well, part-time either, really but that is not a solvable problem) in the OF, the time is right for Dalton.  Danny Barnes is a rested arm.  They need one. 
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#327893) #
Crap.  I meant to say that neither Saunders nor Bautista are fit for full-time OF play. 

I'd add that Justin Smoak is in the midst of one of his legendary slumps.  It's best to respect their power and let him use his magical glove only. 
China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#327894) #
"....I hope that Pompey and Barnes are on a flight to Houston...."

I know you've been banging the Pompey drum for the whole season, but his presence is unnecessary with Upton as the 4th outfielder.  After last night, the Jays clearly need two fresh arms for the bullpen, and Gibbons confirmed this after the game.  Schultz will be demoted to make room for one of the fresh arms.  As for the other arm:  the Jays might have to option Goins to make room for him.  Tulo is apparently close to returning, so he can be the emergency infield replacement if Barney or Travis is injured during the game.  And let's hope Donaldson is ready today.  It's not ideal, but the Jays desperately need fresh arms, and I can't think of anyone except Schultz and Goins who can be optioned today without losing them.

And yes, let's hope Barnes is one of the two pitchers heading to Houston.  The Bisons didn't play yesterday, so he should be available to pitch today.  Other possibilities could be Loup, Girodo, Tepera, Venditte etc.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#327895) #
What I am seeing is a club that is having trouble hitting RH slop.  Upton can't do it, Bautista can't do it and now Saunders can't do it. One of Bautista and Saunders ought to be DHing every day with Encarnacion at first base, and Upton/Pompey in a platoon.  I'm not so sure that Gibbons would want to do this, but that is what the club needs.
China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#327896) #
"....Upton can't do it, Bautista can't do it and now Saunders can't do it...."

But given their track record, the chances of those three hitters being able to do it, very soon, is vastly greater than the chances of it being done by a 23-year-old minor-leaguer who hit poorly on his previous MLB experiments.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#327897) #
Stro's struggles this year may well have turned him into an even better pitcher as he's been forced to sort out his proper pitch mix.

Since the start of July he's been maybe the best Stroman we've seen yet, as he's learned to appreciate the value of swinging strikes:

6gs, 6.8ip/gs, 26.7k%, 3.1bb%, 65.2gb%, 3.29era, 3.30fip, 2.33xfip

Those ratios are much sexier than the ones he was putting up earlier in the year in his attempt to "pitch to contact", even though he was getting good results back then.

His Pitch Mix change:

APR-JUN: 58.8%fb, 11.1%sl, 11.3ct%, 11.0%ct, 7.8%ch
JUL-AUG: 58.2%fb, 23.5%sl, 6.7%ct, 7.4%cb, 4.3%ch

He's doubled his use of the slider, which has always graded as his best pitch, and cut his other off speed offerings pretty much in half (though they're still a significant part of his arsenal).

NOTE: it seems pitch f/x counts many of those sliders as cutters, so their new pitch mix shows about 15% cutters, 15% sliders, and 5% each of the curve and change.

Of course it's only 6 starts against middling competition, but at least we have a clear reason for the improvement. The question now is how much of this is just him messing with the scouting reports, and whether the league will adjust again to his new mix.

Stroman maintaining this would essentially replace Sanchez in the rotation the rest of the way, which would really lessen our need for Liriano to be great.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#327899) #
Gibbons was happy to give plenty of PAs to Ezequiel Carrera, and even put him in the leadoff role.  I think that he prefers veterans. 

Pompey has had 135 major league PAs and has a career 88 OPS+.  He's hit quite a bit better than that in the minor leagues and does hit better from the left side.  He also runs very well and fields very well.  Why wouldn't you take advantage of what Pompey does well and what Saunders and Bautista do well.  You'd be taking PAs away from Justin Smoak, and at this point, it's a very low bar that Pompey has to hurdle. 

uglyone - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#327900) #
China, an 88wrc+ with plus D and baserunning at ages 21-22 is not really "poorly".

Pompey has had 3 stints in the majors so far, and been very productive in 2 of them - both of his late season callups. He was bad in 1 of them - when he was named starting CF to begin the season at age 22:

2 Mid-season Callups: 58pa, 135wrc+
1 Month Named Starter: 91pa, 63wrc+

I don't get why a fanbase that gets so worked up about prospects has given up on one of their best ones because of one bad month at age 22.
China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#327901) #
Uglyone, I haven't given up on Pompey at all.   But given the "erratic focus" issues that he and his coaches have acknowledged this year, and given the fact that the Jays have invested rather heavily in Upton ($5-million plus Rodriguez), why would you give up on Upton already?  If anyone is going to take PAs away from Smoak, it's going to be an established outfielder who has better defence than Saunders and Bautista.   Pompey is still a gamble.  The best time to promote him is September, and then give him a full chance in spring training next year.  Pompey hasn't shown enough to put him ahead of Upton, Saunders and Bautista in a pennant drive, especially when he and the Buffalo coaches have admitted that he has focus problems.
Alex Obal - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#327902) #
It was weird. He couldn't find the range on his fastball at all in the first two innings, and he was using his cutter (the tight, 90 one, not the swing-and-miss 86 downer) to get ahead of hitters, even the righties. That's not normally how it goes for him I think, it seems to me that in most starts his especially bad mistakes tend to be cutters, but it's great when it does work - he can pitch off the cutters one way with fastballs, another way with sliders, and yet another way with changeups once in a while (he froze Correa with one). And they don't even have to be located well because they all have the element of surprise.

The slider got him a ton of strikeouts. On the other hand a few of the early slider K's were of the looking variety when they didn't break, stayed in the zone, and crossed up the Houston hitters - gyroballs. Wonder if he can repeat that on purpose. He can be Matsuzaka.
China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#327905) #
Baseball America has just published a survey of managers, and found Gibbons ranked as third-best manager in the league.

In the hitting categories, Donaldson and Encarnacion are highly ranked.  In the pitching categories, Estrada does very well.  Martin is ranked as third-best defensive catcher in the league.  (The latter must be a recent career ranking, rather than 2016, since his defence this year has been below his usual standards.)

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/major-league-best-tools/#wSYgyT5BYimxdbR3.97

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#327910) #
I was watching the Houston telecast yesterday.  They described Jose Bautista as being an above-average defensive outfielder with a great arm.  I guess that they didn't watch the ALCS and didn't remember any of Bautista's games in 2015 facing the Astros. 
grjas - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#327948) #
Stroman maintaining this would essentially replace Sanchez in the rotation the rest of the way, which would really lessen our need for Liriano to be great.

Yeah I was thinking exactly the same thing. And much as I hate to see Sanchez in the BP, we should have a scary group of guys following our starters. Course I thought that would be the case at the beginning of the year too.
92-93 - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#327953) #
When a team trades for a player, does he need to be added to the 25 right away, or is there time for the player to report? I ask because I'm curious if there would've been a way to call up some bodies fresh off an extra inning game before having Liriano and Feldman report.
China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#327957) #
"...does he need to be added to the 25 right away..."

Liriano hasn't been added to the 25-man yet.  He won't be added until he is ready to pitch for the Jays.  If they plan to use him in the rotation soon, they don't need to add him to the active roster until he's ready to start, as far as I know.  He has been added to the 40-man roster, however.

As for Feldman: that's a good question.  Since he had pitched on Sunday (38 pitches), maybe he shouldn't have been added to the roster yesterday.  Maybe the Jays should have flown 2 relievers (plus Goins) from Buffalo to Houston yesterday.  Perhaps the Jays weren't sure how the trades were going to shake down, so they only flew Schultz and Goins to Houston, and then they made a last-minute decision to add Feldman and to put Carrera on the phantom DL.  It would have been nice to have a fresher arm available in the bullpen last night (presuming that they were saving Grilli for today, or that he wasn't available for some other reason).  But I have some sympathy for the Jays on this, since they couldn't have been sure what would happen before the trade deadline, and they couldn't have known that last night's game would be another extra-innings marathon.
China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#327959) #
Incidentally, the Jays DFA'd Ben Rowen yesterday to help make room for the new arrivals in the 40-man roster.

They still have Dragmire and McFarland on the 40-man, so there's still room for more additions later if they need it.

92-93 - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#327960) #
Thanks, CF, that all makes sense. I'd add that the Jays may have not known Grilli wasn't feeling great yesterday until pre-game warmups, so they didn't anticipate being hamstrung for arms. You can also argue that with Dickey starting today that they were completely fine in that regard for quite a few more innings.

Do we have a source (or in this case, a hint) on Carrera being a "phantom DL", or are we just assuming that's the case based on the immediate need for the roster spot? Kudos to management if they were able to convince Carrera to accept a few weeks on the DL, knowing September's roster expansion allows them to guarantee he'd end the season on their 40.
China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#327963) #
Carrera had a minor Achilles issue in June and again in July, and missed a couple of games each time, as I recall, but he never needed the DL at the time.  The Achilles injury was first reported on June 22, so it seems rather odd to imagine that it would suddenly require the DL in August.  He played an inning in each of the Jays games on July 29 and July 30, and I don't recall seeing any indication that he suffered an injury in any of those games.  Then on Sunday he was a pinch-hitter, and again there didn't seem to be any indication of an injury.  So I'm just assuming that it's the phantom DL, on the pretext that his old Achilles injury had never properly healed.  (And since he is the only obviously surplus player on the roster, when they needed to make room for Feldman, Schultz and Goins.)  So I don't have any proof, I'm just assuming that it's a phantom injury, but I think I'm probably right.
China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#327965) #
I should add that the Jays officially described it as an Achilles injury when they put Carrera on the DL yesterday.  And since the Achilles injury was first reported on June 22, it seems rather implausible that it suddenly required the DL, especially when Carrera hadn't had any visible problems recently.  I suppose the Jays will say that the old injury "flared up again" or some such.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#327967) #
Time to celebrate, dan gordon!

Danny Barnes called up.
China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#327968) #
Danny Barnes finally promoted.   Bolsinger too, according to the latest tweets.  To make room, Schultz will be optioned.  I'm guessing Goins is the other one who gets optioned, but I don't know for sure.  Depends maybe on the latest state of health of Tulo and Donaldson.
China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#327969) #
Yes, it's Schultz and Goins optioned down to make room for Barnes and Bolsinger. 

Donaldson is back in the lineup, and Tulo is on the bench as the back-up infielder.  Bautista is the DH, while Upton is the RF and Smoak sits.   Pillar is 5th in the lineup, ahead of Travis for some reason.

dan gordon - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#327970) #
Good to see Barnes get the call. I've never seen him pitch. It could be short lived of course, as they will need to send either Bolsinger or Barnes back to make room for Liriano. I believe they will have to drop somebody from the 40-man as well - hard to keep track with all of the moves yesterday, but as mentioned upthread, Dragmire and McFarland are reasonable candidates.
Gerry - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#327971) #
Barnes has some deception in his delivery so watch him closely when he pitches.
Chuck - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#327973) #
Pillar is 5th in the lineup

His slash line against RHP: 264/295/389.

Why Gibbons can't just bat him 9th every night and be done with it eludes me.

hypobole - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#327974) #
I suppose the Jays will say that the old injury "flared up again" or some such.

Is Carrera healed, just because he's been used and doesn't "look" injured? Donaldson has been playing a lot more than Carrera and there's no doubt he's injured. It's not crippling, but a significant injury nonetheless.



China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#327975) #
True.  But by this point in the season, most baseball players have various aches and pains and ailments.  Almost anything could justify the DL if necessary. 
China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#327976) #
I count 40 names on the current 40-man roster, including Liriano, Bolsinger, Feldman, and even Harold Ramirez (who apparently needs a 40-man roster slot, even though he is still just 21 years old, presumably because he has already spent 5 years in the minors).  But Danny Barnes is not on the 40-man roster, so somebody will have to be dropped to make room for him.  The possibilities include Dragmire, McFarland, Burns, Ceciliani and Dominguez.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#327977) #
Does anyone know anything about Brady Dragmire? Is he a potential MLB player? I really can't remember anything about the guy.
dan gordon - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#327978) #
Dragmire was a 17th round pick in 2011. He has pitched exclusively in relief in the Blue Jays system, and had good seasons in the Gulf Coast in 2012, Bluefield in 2013 and Lansing in 2014. Wasn't nearly as good in 2015 in Dunedin or this year in New Hampshire. He's 23 and doesn't look to me like much of a prospect. In 54 IP this year, he's given up 63 hits, 20 walks and 7 home runs, with only 31 K's. Two years in a row he's had an opponents batting average of at least .300, and a WHIP over 1.50.
scottt - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#327986) #
It's better to have a decent OBP guy hitting 9th as the top the lineup can score him.
I like Pillar at 8th or 7th if Goins is in the lineup.

jerjapan - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#327987) #
This is from Blue Bird Banter, on Dragmire:

"Brady Dragmire had a really impressive second half for Dunedin (40K / 5BB in 36.2 innings), and has followed it up with a strong AFL showing."  He doesn't have overpowering stuff, low 90s apparently.

Those AFL appointments can be telling as to who the FO considers a legit bullpen candidate - over the years, off-the-radar relievers like Aaron Loup, Chad Girodo and Blake McFarland have all gotten the nod. 

Great news for Barnes - statistically, kid's earned it. 

Eephus - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#327992) #
Geez, I don't think Colby ever made a throw that good as a Blue Jay.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#327993) #
No, Buck, Travis isn't "hot", he's just really good.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#327994) #
Eephus, I remember about one or two throws per year like that.  He's got an above-average left-fielder's arm and so it looked better than it was.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#327995) #
Old friend Joe Musgrove makes his major league debut against the Jays and Edwin Encarnacion.  No one said it would be easy.
Eephus - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#327996) #
I remember his arm being fairly strong, but woefully inaccurate. It seemed like most of his throws to the plate would go twenty or so feet up the third base line. Definitely looks like moving to a corner has helped him work out the glitches in the guidance system.
ayjackson - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#327997) #
I think Melvin is the worst of the three Upton brothers.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#327998) #
Musgrove looks terrific.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#327999) #
Houston is a pesky ballclub. I'll be happy if the Jays can win two in this series.

Wonderful job by RA tonight.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#328000) #
Beastly start, you wily vet you.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#328001) #
I know the jays are making every pitcher look great right now but that's an awesome debut for the kid. sharp and nasty.
rpriske - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#328002) #
So basically the Jays have collectively forgotten how to hit...
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#328003) #
Barnes looking good so far.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#328004) #
This may be the PA of the night for the Jays (Correa).
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#328005) #
These games in Houston are the ugliest things I've ever seen. K after K after K after K after K after K after K after K. For both teams. Is there something wrong with the hitters backdrop there?
uglyone - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#328006) #
91-93 every fastball from Barnes. Not a ton of heat but more than i feared. maybe enough to work with that movement and delivery. deadly changeup though.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#328007) #
Is there something wrong with the hitters backdrop there?

I would think it's different at the very least, there being a green hill in dead centre field.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#328008) #
Barnes is likely just a short-term fill in (with Osuna, Sanchez, Grilli, Benoit, Cecil, Feldman, and Biagini in the pen there's no room for him), but it's clear he will get a good look for the pen next season. Minor league performance and looked great in his debut in a high leverage spot.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#328009) #
I thought Barnes showed good control/command, with good aggressiveness. And that changeup to K Correa was a thing of beauty.
rpriske - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#328010) #
I assume a short term fill-in that continues in about a month.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#328011) #
No Martin PH?
rpriske - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#328012) #
Pardon me for just a moment but that young lady standing behind home plate seems like she might be a little distracting to a pitcher.

I'm just saying'...
Magpie - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#328013) #
Over the last five seasons, strikeouts have in fact been more frequent in this particular ballpark. Houston's hitters - who strike out a lot to start with - have struck out more times in fewer plate appearances at home: 3391 Ks in 13,931 PAs, 24.3%. On the road, Houston's hitters have fanned 3314 times in 14,287 PAs, 23.2%.

As you might expect, the effect is more pronounced when Houston's pitchers are facing batters who aren't as used to the place. Opposing hitters have struck out 3014 times in 14,756 PAs, 20.4%; in Houston's road games, opposition batters have fanned 2560 times in 13,996 PAs, just 18.3%.

All that could very well have something to do with the hitter's background. That type of split usually says there's something going on with the visibility.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#328014) #
Barnes will have a while to impress, as Sanchez is probably still a while away from joining the pen. Might not be impossible for him to steal a spot if a feldman or benoit falters.

That was a needed win. Thank you Dickey.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#328015) #
actually that doesn't make sense with liriano joining the team.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#328016) #
It's looking like a pretty tight race to the postseason over the next couple of months. Hard to say how it will play out.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#328017) #
Couple of oddities

Houston, the youngest hitters in the AL, were beaten by 2 of the 3 oldest pitchers in the AL tonight.

A day after we acquired a couple of prospects in the Liriano salary dump, we faced Joe Musgrove, part of the prospect capital in the trade for Happ/Cordero salary dump.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#328019) #
Pardon me for just a moment but that young lady standing behind home plate seems like she might be a little distracting to a pitcher.

Hilight of the game
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#328020) #
Over the last five seasons, strikeouts have in fact been more frequent in this particular ballpark. Houston's hitters - who strike out a lot to start with - have struck out more times in fewer plate appearances at home: 3391 Ks in 13,931 PAs, 24.3%. On the road, Houston's hitters have fanned 3314 times in 14,287 PAs, 23.2%.

As you might expect, the effect is more pronounced when Houston's pitchers are facing batters who aren't as used to the place. Opposing hitters have struck out 3014 times in 14,756 PAs, 20.4%; in Houston's road games, opposition batters have fanned 2560 times in 13,996 PAs, just 18.3%.

All that could very well have something to do with the hitter's background. That type of split usually says there's something going on with the visibility.


Interesting. I started thinking something was up with the place when Stroman K'd 13.
pubster - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#328021) #
Here's her instagram for those interested lol

https://www.instagram.com/terannhilow/
dan gordon - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#328022) #
Great game by Dickey. Very nice to see back to back great starts for him and Stroman. The team needs them to step up, with Sanchez going to the pen. I thought Barnes looked very good - reminds me of Estrada in the way he pitches a lot to the top of the strike zone with the fastball, and a few pitches down at the knees. That was what they quoted Barnes as saying when asked to describe himself as a pitcher - up and down, not side to side. Very good changeup. I thought the pitch selection after the mound meeting was strange, another high fastball, and Altuve smoked it. I figured with 2 strikes they were deciding between slider and changeup.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 02 2016 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#328023) #
Here's her instagram for those interested lol

Is this the right time for an "Everything's bigger in Texas" crack?
scottt - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 05:30 AM EDT (#328025) #
Apparently the lights in MM are terrible. Also, it seems like the footing in the batter's box was like standing on a beach. Altuve dug himself some huge holes before his at-bats.
scottt - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 05:33 AM EDT (#328026) #
The story with Barnes was that his velocity dropped to 88mph on the second inning.
Otherwise, he looked pretty good.

McFarland was the last guy dropped from the 40 roster.

scottt - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 05:43 AM EDT (#328027) #
Meanwhile Price implodes like it's the playoffs in the 8th and the Mariners score 5 to win it.  Abad blows a save and takes the loss.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 06:07 AM EDT (#328028) #
When Dickey pitches well he makes this starting rotation the best the Jays have had in many years. In regard to the strikeouts, is it possible the Jay's hitters are over-swinging a bit with the left field wall being so invitingly close?
Jevant - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 08:06 AM EDT (#328030) #
#MakePillar8thAgain
China fan - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 08:19 AM EDT (#328031) #
A one-run victory.  Gibbons must have been brilliant last night!

A few highlights from the game:

Excellent pitching, led by Dickey, after the superb pitching the previous night by Stroman and most of the bullpen.  Good hitting by Bautista and Upton -- very encouraging after their recent woes.  It's important to get those two going.  And the bullpen was only needed for 2 innings, so most of the relievers should be available tonight.  (I'm hoping that Bolsinger is not required this week, except in a mop-up role or very low-leverage.  In the minors for the Dodgers affiliate, 2 of his last 3 outings were terrible.  I don't have a lot of confidence in him at this stage, although I'm hoping that the Buffalo coaches will find adjustments that help.)

This is a tough stretch of the season, but three off-days are coming up:  Aug. 11, 18 and 22.  Players such as Donaldson and Tulo will really appreciate those days off.

Alex Obal - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#328033) #
I knew McCullers' curveball was illegal in 17 states but I didn't realize that was for his own protection.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#328034) #
Well actually, CF, Gibbons did contribute in a positive way to the one-run victory.  He did not have many options for the bottom of the eighth, but he did the right thing in sending out Barnes in his major league debut to face Springer, Bergman, Altuve and Correa in a very high leverage situation.  It was different from sending out Leon in a similar situation early in the year, because Barnes was not rusty and had been used regularly in these situations in Buffalo with superior results.
China fan - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#328036) #
Gibby's only choice in the 8th inning was Barnes or Bolsinger.   Nobody else was available.  Gibbons had made it clear before the game that only 3 relievers were available for the game:  Barnes, Bolsinger and Grilli.   It's clear that Grilli was being saved for the 9th inning.  And as I outlined in the post above, Bolsinger could have been a disaster.  It's pretty clear that the Jays were saving Bolsinger for absolute emergency, like an extra-innings situation.  So the decision to use Barnes was a rather obvious one.  I decline to give Gibby any particular credit for that one.
Hodgie - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#328038) #
"I decline to give Gibby any particular credit for that one."

Of course, there was one other option, sending Dickey back out for the eighth inning. It actually would have been understandable given the state of the bullpen. Instead he determined Barnes was his best option and was rewarded for his faith. A good decision by "One run John".

pubster - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#328039) #
When the pitching only allows 1 run you should win, but it really shouldn't be a one run win.

A big reason why the game was a 1 run win is because the Jays couldn't generate much offence.

If they had played better it would not have been a one run win.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#328040) #
Many managers would have sent out Benoit or Osuna for a 3rd straight day.  Neither of them had been terribly taxed in their previous two outings.  It would be overuse, but well within the norms of managerial behaviour.
Cracka - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#328042) #
Absolutely -- in fact, I'd say that there are very few managers who would even contemplate having a reliever make his major league debut with a one run lead, in the 8th inning, against the heart of the order. Obviously this was circumstantial, not strategic... but I'd reckon the vast majority of other managers would have chosen to use a veteran arm for a 3rd consecutive day rather than a "virgin rookie" in the situation.
China fan - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#328043) #
Having flown Barnes all the way to Houston, having dropped Goins to make room for him, and doing all that for the specific purpose of needing fresh arms to avoid the extreme over-use of Osuna and others, it would have been rather odd if the Jays had left Barnes on the bench while subjecting Osuna or others to over-use.  Remotely conceivable, I suppose, but very unlikely.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#328044) #
I'll admit that when I saw Barnes coming in, I thought that Gibby was making the wrong move and that it would've been better losing the game on Dickey's back, but, as with most managerial decisions, there really is no definitive right or wrong.
China fan - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#328046) #
Checking the game logs for Osuna this season:  there have been a couple of prior instances of him being used on 3 consecutive days, but never for a full inning on 3 consecutive days.

Also, the Jays had used Osuna in 6 of the previous 9 days before yesterday.  He was over-worked.  It made sense to rest him last night, and I don't find it at all surprising that Gibbons decided to do that.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#328047) #
An MLB-caliber reliever shouldn't have an issue throwing 3 days in a row, provided the workload wasn't too taxing.

I've noticed Showalter use Britton 4 times in 5 days and more recently 5 times in 6 days, including 4 straight.
grjas - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#328048) #
The surprise was not pinch hitting for Thole with a man on first and second in the eighth when Dickey was already gone.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#328050) #
That wasn't too much of a surprise; Martin had caught 26 innings over the last 2 games, so Gibby wanted to give him the full day off. He probably really needed it.

That being said, I don't think much of Thole's game calling and defensive abilities when Dickey isn't in the game, so I almost wish they'd train Barney to be a 3rd C for that type of situation.
China fan - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#328052) #
An interesting question would be whether the Jays are taking a different approach to the use of their pitchers than other teams, or whether a team like Baltimore is the outlier on pitcher use.  The decision to put Sanchez in the bullpen, and perhaps the decision to be a little cautious with the use of Osuna (like last night), might suggest that the Jays are being careful with the use of their pitchers, especially younger pitchers.  Not sure if the Jays are outside the consensus among most MLB teams, or whether this kind of careful use is the consensus now.

Having said that, I don't think the Jays are coddling Osuna.  They use him a lot.  They have sometimes used him for 3 days in a row (although for less than full innings in some of those outings).  But there are days where Gibbons makes it clear that certain pitchers are not available, and this might be a little more often than some other teams do.  I assume there is some thinking and research behind this, even though the science seems still unclear.

hypobole - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#328056) #
Pitcher arm injuries are a murky science and there's always the correlation/causation argument, but the Jays have been very lucky (?) this year.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#328057) #
As a matter of fact, although I've never been high on Pete Walker (a bit of Dunning-Kruger there), who was the last pitcher that blew out either an arm or shoulder while he's been the pitching coach?

SK in NJ - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#328058) #
Well, the last time the Jays shut a pitcher down due to innings concerns it was Brandon Morrow in 2010, and we all know how that turned out.

I believe in being more cautious than reckless, so I can see why the org is doing this, but I think there are better ways to be cautious. I'm disappointed they haven't considered skipping his starts every once in a while, or giving him extra rest, or other ways to keep the IP down while keeping him in the rotation. Having him pitch 7 IP a start for four months and then moving him to the pen when he's a top 5 Cy Young candidate just seems like a waste.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#328059) #
one of the things about the old trope "you need 8-10 starters per year" is that it's often based on a misleading data set.

for example, the jays used 12 SP last year but didn't really need to. even with stroman missing the whole year the only other injury was sanchez being out for a month. they could have easily just used 7 SP last year - including stroman - with Sanchez as the 6 and the 7th guy only filling in that month for Sanchez.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#328060) #
I would attribute that more to Gibbons than Walker, hypobole. Gibbons didn't get nearly enough recognition for the health of the Jays staff last season, and it's happening again this year. I guess people are too caught up in the team's one-run record or minute in-game-decisions they don't have enough info to properly criticize to appreciate the good.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#328061) #
With all the Sanchez inning limit stuff I wonder why the Jays aren't worried about others (or at least the media).

Osuna: most innings ever was 69 2/3 last year (plus 8 1/3 in playoffs = 78), up to 48 now with nearly 2 months to go plus playoffs. Plus he is only 21 (with 22 saves, nice more saves than years alive already).

Stroman: one year removed from missing most of a season he is up to 142 1/3 IP, more than he ever did in the majors already (157 2/3 lifetime ML innings pre-2016) 166 1/3 is his most for majors/minors combined in a year. He will pass that this month.

Not suggesting to sit either down but worth noting.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#328064) #
one good thing about all the jays starters have fairly low effort deliveries, even hard throwers like sanchez and stroman. wouldn't be surprised if this was measurably the best predictor of arm health in the end.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#328065) #
Well, the last time the Jays shut a pitcher down due to innings concerns it was Brandon Morrow in 2010, and we all know how that turned out.

Yeah, they shut down Morrow in September, but only after this

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR201008080.shtml

Perfect example of the conflicts managers face. Did that game contribute to Morrow's future issues? Maybe. Maybe not.

And I'm not blaming Cito, he did what pretty well any MLB manager would do. And he got zero flak from the fanbase for doing what he did. But at the end of the day, it didn't end well for either Morrow or the Jays.
Hodgie - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#328069) #
After listening to Shapiro's interview with McCowan yesterday, it certainly sounds like every option has been considered. Shapiro seemed to indicate the front office has determined that in limiting Sanchez's innings they want to emphasize quality over quantity, utilizing those remaining appearances in high leverage situations. Win probability was mentioned more than once.

Not saying I agree with shutting Sanchez down, but there is method to the madness.

mathesond - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#328070) #
Yeah, they shut down Morrow in September, but only after this

Sigh, I was at that game. The 9th in single to where Hill normally would have been stationed was a let-down, to say the least. But a heckuva game by Morrow, and a W for the good guys, too bad it didn't last
grjas - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#328073) #
Interesting to look at the game splits for Boston. They have played 59 home games and only 46 away games and they're barely 500 on the road, and their significant winning records are against West and NL teams who they will play less frequently down the stretch.
Dave Till - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#328074) #

I would attribute that more to Gibbons than Walker, hypobole. Gibbons didn't get nearly enough recognition for the health of the Jays staff last season, and it's happening again this year.

I give Gibbons a fair share of credit. I remember when the Jays' pitching staff used to suffer one injury after another. Is Gibbons or Walker better at handling the number of times that pitchers warm up than their predecessors were?

I also wonder whether the Jays' improved pitcher health is because they now do not hesitate to call up a pitcher or two from Buffalo when their major-league arms are tired. So Toronto's fatigue problem then becomes Buffalo's fatigue problem.

Unless the Bisons are calling up somebody from New Hampshire when they have a pitching shortage, I suspect that what happens is that the back end of the Bisons bullpen is forced to work itself into exhaustion. But these guys aren't likely to ever help the big team anyway, so nobody really cares. Baseball can be a tough game.

Chuck - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#328076) #
one good thing about all the jays starters have fairly low effort deliveries, even hard throwers like sanchez and stroman. wouldn't be surprised if this was measurably the best predictor of arm health in the end.

I know that one counter-example doesn't disprove your hypothesis, but they used to say the same thing about Mark Prior.

uglyone - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#328079) #
Chuck that's one thing imo there's clear proof on - pitch counts matter.

In 2003, Prior averaged an insane 114 pitches per stars. Wood came in at 111. That's at least 15% more than our guys throw - and that 15% comes when their arms are at their most tired.

Both started breaking down immediately the next year.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#328081) #
they used to say the same thing about Mark Prior.

A.J. Burnett had the most effortless delivery I've ever seen in person. He lasted a long time, but he met several surgeons along the way.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#328089) #
Everyone's looking for an answer, because the mind resists the idea that there is no answer. No single answer, anyway. Certainly anybody who looked at how Rich Gossage and Mark Prior threw a baseball would never in a million years have predicted that Gossage would be the one who'd last twenty years.

I'm pretty sure that the best indicator that a pitcher will get hurt is if he's been hurt before. The human arm just wasn't built for this type of abuse, and while some arms find a way to survive, most - most - can not. We may want an answer, but for all intents and purposes, the most reliable method is still like holding the woman underwater to find out if she's a witch.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#328090) #
An interesting bit. Wondering who is a high salaried player who is available that would help the Jays. Would have to be from a team doing poorly, yet the player is doing well thus safe to assume would help this year and in future years. Would need to fill a need now and in the near future as well ala Liriano to replace Dickey next year and Sanchez this year.

Part of me keeps thinking Joey Votto (147 OPS+ this year) just because he fits the profile - big power hitter at 1B thus allowing EE to DH for this year and he fills the big power hitter role in 2017 and beyond. Cincinnati is in dead last and sucking and a small market and needs to have payroll space but Votto is owed $25 mil a year until 2023 ('just' $20 this year and $22 next) plus a $7 mil buyout for his 2024 option (at age 40 vs a $20 mil salary). If the Jays think EE and Bautista and Saunders are gone this winter then it could make sense depending on a lot of other factors. Could the Jays get the Reds to toss in some prospects not on the 40 man (thus free from waivers) ala the Liriano trade? Expensive but might help both short and long term. Boy would that make this team scary for offense.

I'm really blanked on who else could help that would slide through waivers.
jerjapan - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#328092) #
A day after we acquired a couple of prospects in the Liriano salary dump, we faced Joe Musgrove, part of the prospect capital in the trade for Happ/Cordero salary dump.

Liriano is making $13 million per year and is signed for next year.  Cordero and Francisco were on one year contracts and were owed approximately $3 million total when acquired.  In no way was that deal a 'salary dump', nor is it comparable to this one. 

Musgrove has certainly emerged as a disappointing guy to have traded - kindof like anthony desclafani has ended up being the biggest loss in the Miami blockbuster - but I'd still call that a good deal for the Jays.  Happ was worth about $12 million in surplus value while here, and netted us Saunders.  He met have also netted us JA Happ circa 2016 - who knows if the org resigns him without internal scouting?  

AA called it a quantity over quality trade and the rest of the names - carlos perez, asher woj, david rollins - are certainly waiver wire fodder.  the PTBNL was kevin comer, who had plenty of helium when drafted but pretty much instantly turned pumpkin.  needless to say, francisco and cordero represented no loss, and Brandon Lyon pitched well for us out of the pen that year. 

I hated the deal at the time, but in retrospect I think this move represented AA at his best - selling high on low ceiling prospects.   obviously musgrove could be a stud - he looked awesome last night - but until recently, most bauxites thought the loss of yan gomes was devastating to the org.  with prospects, you never know.   
hypobole - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#328094) #
jerjapan, you're wrong on a number of points

1) Cordero WAS a salary dump. The salary amount was much smaller than the Liriano deal, but a dump nonetheless. He had lost his fastball and was getting shelled and he was still owed almost $2 million. The Astros took him because they were on their way to a 100 loss season.

As for "selling high on low ceiling prospects.", AA has done that, but certainly not with the Cordero/Happ trade.

Rollins may have been the only one, certainly not Musgrove, Comer, Wojo (all 3 picked before the 2nd round) or Perez.

Musgrove had shoulder issues prior to the trade. Comer lost his velocity - was mid-90's when drafted, then reported to camp throwing high 80's (as you alluded to). PD tried to fix Wojo's violent finish and it was a failure. Perez had to repeat Lansing. He sold LOW on 4 of the 5 prospects.

.
China fan - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#328104) #
The Jays have activated Liriano and optioned Bolsinger to make room for him.  Liriano will start on Friday, while Sanchez starts on Saturday.  So the Jays have temporarily moved to a 6-man rotation and a 6-man bullpen.  (Probably until Sanchez shifts to the bullpen.)  That leaves the bullpen a little short-handed, and I hope it doesn't hurt the Jays in the next few days.  But if necessary, Feldman can probably pitch 2 or 3 innings, so that could help bridge the gap.
jerjapan - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#328105) #
Hypobole, with Lyon's contract, that deal was essentially salary neutral.  Fine, the two vets we dealt were sunk costs, so in that sense, a salary dump - but certainly this is not the common usage of the phrase, nor is it comparable to the extra $16 million we assumed in the Liriano / hutch deal. 

And for a guy who talks about the difficulty of fans like ourselves speculating on the value of prospects, you certainly talk frequently about your perceived value of prospects.  From my POV, all of the prospects in the trade had prospect status - perhaps diminishing prospect status, but prospect status nonetheless.

Perez was ranked 12th on the box that year, and was still young for Lansing when dealt.  Repeating a level is an issue, but only one of many.  This is selling high - if you consider 12th in a strong system, with improving numbers, selling high.  I do. 

Comer had 43 innings before being dealt.  Musgrove 41 - while young for his level, and a highschooler.  both were 1st rounders.  If that's not a 'sell high' scenario, I have no idea what is - their draft pedigree was their distinguishing feature at that point, and if you want to go with SSS for prospects, we should dump John Harris based on 2015.   

Rollins had great numbers for a 24th rounder, old for his league, when dealt.  Again, this is selling high. 

I'm not sure if you remember how unusual these moves were considered on the Box at the time, but let me assure you, people were pissed about this deal because of their draft pedigree.  This was one of the years that AA gamed the system with comp draft picks, and he was extremely aggressive with his drafting and his prospect capital.  



jerjapan - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#328107) #
Forgot to mention Asher Woj - sure, he had arm troubles.  And he was back, pitching well.    He's your best example of not selling high, but id argue that AA was still quick to dump a highly touted 1st rounder. 
ayjackson - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#328108) #
I agree that Perez, Musgrove and Comer were not "sell high" prospects. A re-draft at the time of that trade would have probably seen Comer and Musgrove go a lot lower, and Perez was as described above.

It didn't sting at the time to give up on any of those prospects individually.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#328110) #
Mark Prior had a clean delivery?

If you consider the inverted W a clean delivery, yeah. He was Mike Marshall's star pupil. Marshall found that using arm lag would add sizable velocity to a pitchers delivery and Prior was his poster child. Marshall popularized that delivery. Other pitchers followed suit until elbows and shoulders started blowing out.

Later studies revealed arm lag (late cock phase) caused stress on the elbow more than any other factor.

BTW - not all inverted W's have arm lag, but it was inherent in the "clean delivery" Marshall taught.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#328111) #
BB-ref's pitch count data goes back to 1988, and I just spent half an hour of my life (that I'll never get back) wandering through it.

That very first year, Dave Stewart led the majors in pitches, with 4260. Three other guys (Mark Langston, Ropger Clemens, Mark Gubicza) also cleared 4000 pitches. It's been more than ten years since anyone threw 4000 pitches in a season (Livan Hernandez, 2005) and no one has matched Stewart's figure since he put it up there.

Sid Fernandez led the majors with 3.99 pitches per plate appearance back in 1988. That would have trouble making the top ten these days.

There have always been guys who threw lots of pitches per batter - Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson - those guys all regularly averaged 4.00 per PA. I'm as sure as one can be without actually knowing it that Nolan Ryan threw more pitches in the major leagues than anyone who ever lived. He's already fifth on the all-time IP list, just behind Niekro. Ryan probably threw some 90,000 pitches in his career, and I strongly doubt that Cy Young averaged 3.00 pitches per plate appearance, which is what he'd have needed to have thrown more pitches than Young.

But anyway - today there are many, many guys who throw as many pitches per PA as Ryan or Clemens. Guys like Jake Odorizzi, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Ian Kennedy, Gio Gonzalez throw even more pitches per hitter, as a rule. I think this  actually have more to do with the modern philosophy of hitting than anything else.

And then there's Greg Freaking Maddux....

Mad Dog always said that all he was trying to do on the mound was "get the at bat over with." Well, none better. In 1988, he was 12th in the majors in IP, and 23rd in number of pitches thrown. He was just getting warmed up:

Year   IP   Pitches  IP-rank Pitches-rank)
1988  249 3440 12th 23rd
1989 238.1 3336 16th 24th
1990 237 3204 5th 17th
1991 263 3687 2nd 10th
1992 268 3741 1st 11th

And then he went to Atlanta. And got really really efficient....

1993  267    3483     1st       17th
1994 202 2626 1st 13th
1995 209.2 2488 6th 60th
1996 245 2778 5th 53rd
1997 232.2 2634 14th 63rd
1998 251 3281 4th 44th
1999 219.1 3042 14th 63rd
2000 249.1 3241 2nd 38th
2001 233 2980 7th 61st
2002 199.1 2678 44th 85th
2003 218.1 2935 12th 70th

Even in his old age, wandering around the league...

2004  212.2  2924    20th       68th
2005 225 3099 13th 49th
2006 210 2800 31st 76th
2007 198 2703 44th 76th
2008 194 2568 44th 91st
And yes, I double-checked the 1995 and 1996 rankings. I couldn't believe them either.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#328114) #
Travis bats leadoff tonight with everyone else moving down a slot. Good.

Tulo needs another day off.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#328115) #
You consider Comer, a guy who lost about 8 mph on his fastball as sell high because he only pitched a few innings ? OK.

Musgrove experienced shoulder problems. If you consider dealing a kid with a recent shoulder issues is sell high, OK, no point arguing.

Wojo was back pitching well because the Jays PD gave up on trying to smooth out his finish and just let him pitch with the delivery he was comfortable with, despite the fact it could lead to future injury.

The fact Lyon's and Cordero's salaries were equal is meaningless, other than for the payroll parameters AA was working with. Lyon was pitching effectively and was worth prospect capital. Cordero was DFA material - part of the prospect package (and I agree only a small part) went to Houston to take on his contract. That is a salary dump.

Heres the 1st paragraph on Carlos Perez #12 ranked prospect

"Carlos Perez’s steak of three consecutive R. Howard Webster Awards came to an end and he’ll spend 2012 trying to set the club record by winning his fourth trophy. More importantly, Perez was unfortunately one of the few highly regarded prospects in Toronto’s system to have a disappointing year. Named the best prospect in the NY-Penn League by Baseball America last year, Perez saw both his OBP and slugging percentage drop by over 75 points in 2011 upon his promotion to the Midwest League." That's sell high?

And yes I realize $2 million is less than $16 million.
China fan - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#328116) #
Correction to my last post: the Jays are now going with a 6-man rotation, 7-man bullpen and 3-man bench -- until Sanchez shifts to the bullpen, probably next week.  At some point, Danny Barnes probably gets optioned down, and the Jays can add a position player.   But right now, it's a very thin bench.
China fan - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#328117) #
Wow.  And now Gibbons says the Jays still aren't entirely certain what to do with Sanchez.  We had thought the decision was final, but perhaps it's not.  Maybe the backlash against the earlier bullpen decision is having some impact.  The uncertainty continues.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#328118) #
@GregorMLB
Still debating, you just mean timing? Gibbons: "The total plan, you know? Nothing's locked in stone yet." #BlueJays
uglyone - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#328119) #
there is the notion of "selling high" on a previously touted prospect after his value has diminished but hasn't lost all of it's previous luster i.e. before the rest of mlb has caught on to significant issues you might know about.

it's kinda selling high, kinda not.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#328123) #
Yeah, makeup issues that don't go beyond the clubhouse would fit that.

Or not being able to clear one's hips on inside pitches? ;)
Chuck - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#328124) #
Mark Prior had a clean delivery?

That was the meme, at least. I wonder if the citing of "inverted W" as being a likely source of problems only surfaced after Prior's woes. I cannot recall the chronology of all this. I do recall the talk at the time being that if Prior could get injured pitching, then no one was safe.

Chuck - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#328125) #
Nothing's locked in stone yet.

That would be a strange place to lock something.

hypobole - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#328126) #
You're right that Prior was the delivery role model at the time. Hence all the young pitchers who tried to emulate his delivery.

The scientific study I mentioned only came out a few years ago.
Chuck - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#328127) #
I wonder if the DH schedule will be EE-JB-MS with some JD thrown in when there are enough healthy infielders.

Upton wins in 2 of those scenarios and gets to play again tonight.

And hey, who's that batting 8th?

scottt - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#328132) #
It's a sell high if the player you trade is at the apex of his value and what you get in exchange is of high value.

Personally, I don't feel like trading players when they're just done a short stint in A ball selling high, because that's also implying drafting poorly.

Happ was traded out of Philly to Houston for Roy Oswalt in 2010 just as he was running out of options.
While he pitched well for the phanatics, he was always bad with the Astros. ERA+ of 71 the following year.
So naturally, Houston signed him for 4 years on a modest contract and traded him to Toronto in the middle of his first contract year when his ERA was 4.83.  Is below replacement value at an affordable cost worth multiple prospects?

I don't see a salary dump. Just AA dealing prospects to avoid signing free agents.

Trading Ricky Romero in 2011, now that would have been selling high.

Magpie - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#328133) #
The Mark Prior saga. It's often forgotten that Prior didn't instantly blow up after that epic 2003 season, when he looked very much like The Pitcher, as designed by the Supreme Being. He had two more seasons as an effective pitcher in the Cubs' rotation. They were marred by spectacularly bad luck, however - an Achilles tendon injury cost him a couple of months in 2004, and a line drive broke his pitching elbow in 2005. His shoulder didn't finally disintegrate until 2006.

He came out of college, having never thrown more than 140 IP, and he threw 167.1 IP in his first pro year. He was still just 22 years old on September 1, 2003 and he'd already thrown 167 innings that year despite missing three starts after a freak injury running the bases. And then... the deluge! In five of his six September starts, he threw 124 to 133 pitches. He made three more starts in the post-season (133, 116, 116).

But if Alex Gonzalez doesn't boot that ground ball...
Magpie - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#328134) #
While I have no doubt Buck and Tabby remember J.R. Richard, I find it hard to believe either batted against him. Richard spent his entire career with Houston, who have always played in Florida in the spring. Buck spent the 1970s playing for AL teams that did their spring training in Arizona. I suppose it's possible that Tabler could have faced him when he was a Yankee farmhand in the late 1970s.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#328135) #
Yeah, that's how I amuse myself when Buck and Tabler are working. I dig out their batter-pitcher matchups.
China fan - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#328136) #
"....Just AA dealing prospects to avoid signing free agents...."

He wasn't deliberately trying to avoid signing free agents.  The problem was that the vast majority of free agents don't want to come to Toronto -- unless they're already familiar with the city, or unless they're offered a huge amount of money.  It's always made more sense to trade for players, rather than gambling on whether you can lure them as free agents.
jerjapan - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#328138) #
You consider Comer, a guy who lost about 8 mph on his fastball as sell high because he only pitched a few innings ? OK.

Musgrove experienced shoulder problems. If you consider dealing a kid with a recent shoulder issues is sell high, OK, no point arguing.

Okay, perhaps sell high is the wrong phrase.  They were sold at the apex of their decline in value.  Work for you?

My point is only that I don't recall anyone trading 1st round picks as quickly as AA did in that era, and clearly in the Happ deal.  He cut bait fast on guys.  This would be similar to having dumped Harris after last year. 

What is the point at which you decide that an 8mph decline (I'm just gonna assume your number is correct, I haven't seen a source on this) is representative of an actual decline?  All of this screams SSS to me.

Jeff Hoffman had tommy john surgery - yet we still drafted him 9th overall, and potentially sold high on him in the Tulo deal. 

If you'd like to insist that the Happ trade was a salary dump, we can agree to disagree.  My interpretation of the term is taking a loss on a trade to dump a toxic financial asset.  3 million in expiring contracts is not that.


greenfrog - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#328141) #
Revised refrain for the post-All-Star 2016 Jays: "Toronto's playing? Is it 1-0 yet?"
Magpie - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#328142) #
I give Gibbons a fair share of credit. I remember when the Jays' pitching staff used to suffer one injury after another.

It's keeping the starters healthy that's really crucial and Gibbons' second tour has been just fine (certainly better than his first time around.) The real disaster was the John Farrell interregnum.
Spifficus - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#328143) #
I have few thoughts and recollections for your Comer/Musgrove response, jerjerpan. For Comer, they dealt him while he still had value. Now he's a bad High-A 23 year old reliever. Musgrove had a year in the weeds post-trade (I assume from injury issues... back issues if I remember right) before bouncing back midway through 2014. I'd say their value actually declined further, and only one of the two rebounded at all.

As for the comparison to Harris, don't forget they had the finish of the first year and the better part of another, so that would be giving up on Harris at this trade deadline... which, given how he's bounced back in his first full pro year, wouldn't seem advisable.

I hadn't heard a drop of 8mph specifically, but I think he went from 91-96 (I'm going to assume he sat 92-93) to 88-90. You don't SSS velocity, though - it pretty much is or it isn't. I mean, you hope he can get back, but I think the velo stabilization point from fangraphs was 3 outings. They saw this drop over two seasons, with a winter of rest, so yeah. I'm not with you on SSS for velo.

Hoffman was probably valued right - a good-but-flawed (due to his TJS) prospect, a top 25-50 type.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#328145) #
Pillar just had the worst at-bat he's had in months.  Three bad chases out on pitches in the dirt and away.  Yuck.

He's had a great game in the field, so there is that.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#328147) #
Pillar just had the worst at-bat he's had in months.  Three bad chases out on pitches in the dirt and away.  Yuck.

Months? He has a bunch of those every week.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#328148) #
I don't think so.  He will still regularly swing at one in the dirt and occasionally two, but this at-bat was as bad as the ones that he was having in the middle of last year. 
Magpie - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#328149) #
That didn't look like strike three. But I'm not complaining.
grjas - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#328151) #
Revised refrain for the post-All-Star 2016 Jays: "Toronto's playing? Is it 1-0 yet?"

Good one. And every run is a solo HR.
Chuck - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#328152) #
Enron Field (or has the name changed?) is a silly place. It's a nice looking park, but I'm a form follows function type of guy. I have no use for that stupid hill in CF which doubles as a crappy hitting backdrop and a needless health menace. I have even less use for the light pole on that stupid little hill (hell, why not have a few landmines out there as well?). And the quicksand they call a batter's box is absurd.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#328153) #
The aggregator says that 18% of umpires would call it a strike.  Not great, but nothing like the 2% strike to Bautista from Hoyt. 
Magpie - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#328155) #
Bet Devon Travis is glad this one's over. Two errors, 0-5, and almost wipes out Smoak on the final popout.
Paul D - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#328156) #
They got rid of the flag pole didn't they?
John Northey - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#328157) #
Hey, landmines would be fun. Mark them with red paint (bullseyes) to add to the fun. I remember old Tigers Stadium having a flag pole in dead center field.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#328161) #
The best thing about Minute Maid Park is that it makes the Rogers Centre look good by comparison.

Jays got some more great pitching, terrific 7 innings by Estrada, Biagini overcoming adversity and Osuna just being Osuna.

Also noticed Osuna and Biagini combined 16 pitches - 15 strikes.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, August 03 2016 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#328162) #
I think I hate that park more than Tropicana.
Petey Baseball - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 12:16 AM EDT (#328163) #
Wow, Chuck you are extra grumpy tonight!

I thought your next remark would be saved for Mr. Gee Whiz himself.
Magpie - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 12:31 AM EDT (#328164) #
Cleveland's awesome pitching staff has allowed 10, 12 , and 13 runs in their last three games. To Minnesota, and the starters were responsible for almost all of it.

End times, surely.
Chuck - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 05:41 AM EDT (#328167) #
Wow, Chuck you are extra grumpy tonight!

After a generation of plastic, cookie cutter parks, there was a movement to unique, old style, grass-covered, genuine parks with personality. Camden may have been the start of that. For the most part, that movement has gone well. Sometimes, though, the personality part goes overboard to the detriment of the game on the field. Houston has recognized this with plans to do away with Tal's Hill.

Chuck - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 05:45 AM EDT (#328168) #
End times, surely.

Clearly Lucroy knew something and didn't want to be held responsible for his would-be new pitching staff's demise.

scottt - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 06:03 AM EDT (#328171) #
That was a weird 8th. It's unusual to for Biagini to setup Osuna like that. He wasn't exactly well rested either having thrown 2 innings on Monday. Conventional wisdom would have put Altuve on to avoid playing for the tie on the road, especially after all the extra innings game this week. Biagini managed to deliver 4 outs on 9 pitches, including a strikeout.

I think Boston is .500 on the road now.

The Jays have 6 games left with both Boston and Baltimore while these 2 will play each other 9 more times.

In the meanwhile, today the Jays will set a new club record for strikeouts in a series. Can they reach 70?

ISLAND BOY - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 07:17 AM EDT (#328172) #
I see a couple of posters mentioning the battersbox area in the Houston park as being quicksand, implying it was soft. However, during the broadcast last night Buck and Pat ( Yeah, I listen to some of what they say) mentioned how the batting area was hard like concrete and a close-up by the camera showed how the players cleats were barely making marks on the ground. Buck later stated that the Astros needed " to do something with that concrete-like battersbox".
Chuck - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 07:24 AM EDT (#328173) #
mentioned how the batting area was hard like concrete

The mute button was my friend last night. I saw the batters slipping so assumed the ground was too soft. Too hard makes sense as well, I guess. Neither soft nor hard are in the Goldilocks zone.

uglyone - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 07:51 AM EDT (#328175) #
"I think Boston is .500 on the road now. "

Boston's been a .500 team period over it's last 70gms.

their scorching start to the year is long gone.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#328180) #
Magpie's data chart of Greg Maddux's seasonal pitch totals reminded me of something that has been bugging me about the Aaron Sanchez discussions.  People speak of a large increase in innings pitched as though it were a good measure of volume stress on the arm.  Pitches thrown is much better, but even that is flawed.  It is certainly easier to throw 100 pitches over 7 innings than 100 pitches over 4 innings because of the additional rest breaks.  Anyways, here are Aaron Sanchez' games logs for 2014.  He made 20 starts and threw 98 innings in those starts.  As you can see, he was regularly throwing 80-90 pitches per start.  Does that place significantly more stress on the arm than the 6-7 inning 90-105 pitch starts he now has been making?  If so, the difference is marginal. 

He ended up 2014 by throwing 35 innings in relief in Buffalo and in Toronto (and was efficient in that role).  The comparison for me is the 20 starts in 2014, which at 2016 efficiency levels, would be 135 innings followed by 35 innings in relief.  That is 170 innings.  Is it an unrealistic jump for Sanchez to go to 200 in the regular season, given that he is 2 years older and has added the 25 lbs?  I don't think so at all. 
Mike Green - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#328181) #
Cleveland's awesome pitching staff has allowed 10, 12 , and 13 runs in their last three games. To Minnesota, and the starters were responsible for almost all of it.
End times, surely

The key is Max Kepler.  The man surely must change his name to Kepler Max so that he join Darwin Barney on the scientist/cartoon character Hall of Names team.  I wonder if the clubhouse penalty for a wild throw from Max is being sent to his room without any supper.
scottt - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#328183) #
Yeah, it's weird. Yesterday the boxes looked like concrete. The day before it looked more like beach sand. Altuva was digging himself a huge hole for his back foot every at bat on Tuesday. Clearly not so yesterday.
uglyone - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 09:16 AM EDT (#328185) #
hey mike can you give us a quick annual pitch total count for Sanchez?
uglyone - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#328186) #
If my quick tally is right then that's 2115 pitches thrown in 2014 and 2078 so far this year. So less pitches despite throwing more innings.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#328187) #
After work, uo, unless someone else steps up to the plate (so to speak). before then.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#328188) #
I have quite a bit of confidence in Nikki Huffman's use of biometrics to evaluate Sanchez' current abilities.  I would find that more persuasive than historical data in Sanchez' case.  If the club converted Sanchez to a relief role because of Huffman's recommendations rather than an unwarranted (in my view) generalization from the past about innings pitched increases, I would feel a lot better about it. 
uglyone - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#328189) #
In 2014 Sanchez threw 2115 pitches, so far this year he's thrown 2078.

20% increase would be 4-5 more starts.
30% increase would be 6-7
40% increase would be 8-9
50% increase would be 10-11
Dave Till - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#328190) #

It is certainly easier to throw 100 pitches over 7 innings than 100 pitches over 4 innings because of the additional rest breaks.

You might be right, but I wonder whether having to work at peak performance over longer periods of time would be harder on the arm than doing the same amount of work in a short time. I seem to recall reading this somewhere (a fat lot of help I'm being here :-)).

The most extreme case of this is rain delays: most teams will bring in a new pitcher after a long delay, as the old pitcher's arm would have had time to cool down completely.

Gerry - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#328192) #
You have to factor in relief appearances and pitches thrown.

Assume Sanchez throws 100 pitches on Saturday, thats 2178.

Then assume he goes to the bullpen and makes 15 relief appearances with 15 pitches in each. Thats another 225 pitches, total is now 2403.

Compared to 2115, that's a 14% increase.

Two more starts and 13 relief appearances gives you 2473 and 17%.

What about the potential post-season too?

It looks like 2-3 more starts for Sanchez to me.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#328193) #
I am pretty sure about that, Dave.  There are very visible signs of exertion (bordering on overexertion) in almost every pitcher in high-pitch innings; it is more consistently noticeable than at the end of a 95 pitch outing where the last inning is relatively easy.  Long rain delays raise issues of staying warmed up, which is a different issue. 
85bluejay - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#328195) #
How many more starts Sanchez gets will be influenced by how Liriano pitches & I think he will exceed expectations.
hypobole - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#328197) #
This is from a Jayson Stark piece about a week ago:

We've wondered for years when teams would start using more sophisticated data than "innings pitched" to make decisions like this. It has finally happened. Atkins has said repeatedly that the Blue Jays will use as many facets of "today's technology" as possible to look for signs of fatigue. So we can all stop counting innings.

Why is that? Because not all innings are created equal. Because this is a guy who is so efficient that only 10 starters in baseball use fewer pitches per inning than he does (15.0). And because, if you look at a stat ESPN defines as "stressful innings" (30 pitches or more in an inning), Sanchez has had only four of them all season.

So if you see that Sanchez is 12th in baseball in innings pitched, you might say, "Hoo boy." But if you check out pitches thrown and see he ranks just 31st, feel free to say, "Never mind."
uglyone - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#328199) #
"How many more starts Sanchez gets will be influenced by how Liriano pitches & I think he will exceed expectations."

And if he does, we may have to drastically revalue one Russel Martin, the pitcher whisperer.

Actually, considering the pitching results since he's been here, we maybe should be doing that already.
Petey Baseball - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#328200) #
I live in overseas so seeing live games is something I can't do often. Haven't really had a chance to see Biagini throw, but when I have, he's been outstanding. Hats off to the scouting department of the Jays.

Looks like the Jays will be playing Cleveland at a good time here in a couple weeks. Since the long winning streak they've struggled, and now Carrasco is hurt. The Tigers are the better team out of the two, I think.
I'd love to see a Tigers-Jays playoff series, being from Southwestern Ontario.
Petey Baseball - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#328201) #
Check that, it's Salazar with the bum elbow.
eudaimon - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#328206) #
Thanks goodness for good pitching! It's not often you can win 2 out of 3 while scoring a grand total of six runs.

Apparently Colby Rasmus is 2 for his last 55. Ouch.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#328207) #
Rasmus is certainly hitting in bad luck.  He hit one on Tuesday night that would have been a home run in most parks but went to the warning track just to the right of center-field in Minute Maid.  It was an easy play for Pillar.  Last night, he barrelled one up down the right-field line just foul. 

The lights seem to be a problem for both teams- it's the last thing that Rasmus needs right now.

China fan - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#328209) #
"....today the Jays will set a new club record for strikeouts in a series....."

Club records were also set by the previous two visiting teams who played in Houston, according to someone on the broadcast last night.  Hitters are being frustrated by the combination of the harsh lights and the rock-hard batter's box.   On the broadcast, they showed a couple of examples of hitters who seemed to slip and slide on the hard dirt in the batter's box, during their swings.  If Altuve was digging a hole in the batter's box, perhaps he was trying to get a grip for his feet.
Hodgie - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#328214) #
Surprised that it has not been mentioned already, but there were reports today that Atkins was flying out to Houston to discuss options with Gibbons, Walker, and Sanchez. I would assume this is in response to the comments from Gibbons and Martin over the last two days. Oh to have been a fly on the wall at 1 Blue Jays Way this week.
China fan - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#328216) #
On the Atkins visit, my guess is that Atkins is trying to spend more time in explaining the decision to Sanchez and the rest of the team.  The front office wants to communicate it better, and they want to make it seem less dictatorial.  And maybe they'll even slightly delay the shift from the rotation to the bullpen.  But it still seems that the Jays have decided to do it.  They just want to explain it better.   My guess anyway.

The real upcoming test for the Jays is the Liriano start tomorrow.  Putting him in the rotation is a big gamble.  He's been one of the worst starters in the majors this season, and the Jays are counting on him improving a lot.  Maybe that will happen, and maybe it won't, but it's quite a test of the front-office's strategic decision-making.  It's maybe the biggest decision that they've made this year.  (Or at least since the initial decision in April to put Sanchez into the rotation.)  We will see.  I'm optimistic about Liriano, but I will be nervous during his start....
ayjackson - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#328217) #
I tend to be of the opinion that recovery time can offset fatigue and that if he pitched once a week, he could probably pitch until Christmas with no ill effect.
PeterG - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#328222) #
If Liriano fails on Friday, does it make sense to give Feldman a start, hopefully get 4 innings and go to Biagini for 2 or 3. This might buy time while a search for another solution continues.
uglyone - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#328223) #
I find the Shapkins-Gibby relationship fascinating.

My Gibby theory all along has been that he's a sharp modern advanced stats brain hidden behind an intentionally laid back good ole boy old school facade. The team's aggressive use of shifts and bullpen switches, untraditional batting orders, and strict pitch limits on SP are all very new school behaviour....and in fact the people who hate him most complain largely of new school type decisions - overaggresive use of RP, and using low defensive value positions to hide good bats, etc. Not saying that Gibby is necessarily that good but just that his decision making, good or bad, is not old school baseball cliche stuff. He certainly does place some emphasis on roles and sticks with proven guys through slumps but that's just good people managing imo. The good ole boy schtick does make him extremely lovable, though.

I think Shapkins were quite surprised by the "real" gibbons, tbh. They were expecting something else entirely.

But it sure doesn't seem like Gibby has minded disagreeing and challenging shapkins in public. I'm just trying to figure out if this is him sticking his thumb in their eye or this him just trying to take heat on himself. For example, I don2 think it's a coincidence that they day after the players start making a stink about sanchez that gibby comes out and says "nothing is decided". I think that was him trying to calm the clubhouse down at least until Atkins went down and talked directly to them himself. I also think when gibby came out a few weeks back with the initial strong statements about sanchez going to the pen, that was him trying to put the heat on himself, which shapkins probably appreciated. Though Russ came out right after that and said it wasn't set in stone
...i'm betting that was him trying to maximize his trade leverage for SP at the deadline (which is why atkins immediately said sanchez was going to the pen on deadline day).

I used to think they were butting heads early on but now it's seeming to me that they're more and more on the same page.

At least until the next lengthy losing streak.
PeterG - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#328224) #
Didn't Gibby want Sanchez in the pen before the start of the season? Sanchez had to be lights out to earn a starting spot and he was.
Vulg - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#328225) #
Why is that? Because not all innings are created equal. Because this is a guy who is so efficient that only 10 starters in baseball use fewer pitches per inning than he does (15.0). And because, if you look at a stat ESPN defines as "stressful innings" (30 pitches or more in an inning), Sanchez has had only four of them all season.

This jives with Russell Martin's comments about Sanchez not experiencing stressful innings this year - to be specific, Martin said he was "cruising" while disagreeing with management's approach.

It just seems this could have been avoided with a bit of planning. Two known quantities at the end of spring were that a) Sanchez looked like a top-of-rotation starter out of spring when he won the job and b) the Jays had always wanted to limit his innings. Given this, I wonder if different plans crossed their minds at the start of the season, like limiting Sanchez to 5 innings over 30 starts, or delaying the start of his season until late May (heard Hayhurst float that one on the radio).

Looks like they just let Gibby decide his usage on a game-by-game basis (which is what he's supposed to do) and now they've found themselves in a sticky situation.
eudaimon - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#328228) #
I much prefer the approach of just letting Sanchez throw like normal instead of limiting him to 5 innings or x number of pitches. For one, 5 innings would have meant we would have had to use our bullpen like 2 more innings per game, which especially during the early part of the season would have been disastrous. Plus, at that point you're training his arm not to go deep into games which you don't want.

I still think we should just let the guy pitch though. Maybe if I say it enough times my dream will come true.

92-93 - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#328229) #
It would have been monumentally stupid for the Jays to take the arm that has been the best pitcher in the American League and hide him in extended spring or force him into the bullpen. They made the right decision, and the only reason they will be faced with a difficult choice if Liriano succeeds is because of how extremely well Sanchez has pitched. It's the perfect situation to be in, and everything they have been saying about it being a fluid situation has been the smart decision, so let's cut the FO some slack here and actually wait and see what they do. If they go with a 6 man for the next 2 weeks and Liriano has 3 nice starts while Estrada's back continues to improve, it will be an understandable choice to limit Sanchez's work even if you don't like it, which I never will.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#328230) #
Joe Mauer had a rough afternoon.  He was thrown out 3 times, once at each base.  I wonder what you would call it if he also got thrown out at home plate in the same game-" the death cycle" is the best I can do.
uglyone - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#328231) #
Travis back at leadoff. Tulo back.

Pillar in 9th, finally.

Smoak is in and Saunders gets a rest.

everything is right in the world.

Gibby using the bench to keep the older/less healthy guys rested and productive should be interesting to follow. He's got lots of options now.

vw_fan17 - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#328232) #
For some strange reason, this my brain composed this haiku over the last week or so...

Smoak plays at 1st base.
A slugger in the making.
Alas, the slider! (or curveball or cutter or changeup or ...)

(or: Ouch, the breaking ball)

electric carrot - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#328233) #
They made the right decision

I mostly agree with 92-93. One thing you learn about baseball is that you never really know what you have until eventually the noise fizzles out and the true patterns reveal themselves. Sanchez, it turned out really was the toad that just needed a kiss. Great!  Score FO 100% for giving Sanchez that kiss he needed. Now let's move on to the second tier questions -- how do we have this Prince pitch when it matters most without his arm falling off? 

OK, here the patterns and noise are difficult to discern from one another (and where 92-93 and I probably don't agree.) My thoughts are, darnit, the team is really pretty great without him, the kid is young, he's a Prince, we want him around for a while and we really need him most against the playoff type teams. Why play with him more than we need to? Let's give him a lighter load for a while -- whatever that entails -- and then ramp it up again when it's more crucial. How you do that? Who knows.
PeterG - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#328234) #
He can't be ramped up again later. That will not happen.
China fan - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#328235) #
Atkins has just announced that Sanchez will remain in the rotation for the time being.  Not sure what that means -- another 2 or 3 starts?  Will it be a 6-man rotation for a while?
China fan - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#328236) #
Atkins says the Jays have consulted all of the starting pitchers, and they all support the idea of a six-man rotation.  He says they will closely monitor Sanchez between starts.  (So maybe he'll get several more starts before shifting to bullpen?)

He also says Liriano is willing to pitch out of the bullpen as part of this new plan.   Not sure if I'd want that.  With his lack of control this season, I wouldn't want him to do a one-inning high-leverage appearance.

electric carrot - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#328237) #
He can't be ramped up again later. That will not happen.

In fact the 6 man rotation proposed, if it continues, would seem to more or less do exactly that.  You don't think they'll do a 6 man rotation for the playoffs do you?
Oceanbound - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#328238) #
He was thrown out 3 times, once at each base. I wonder what you would call it if he also got thrown out at home plate in the same game-" the death cycle" is the best I can do.

The TOUTBLAN?
Vulg - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#328240) #
Atkins has just announced that Sanchez will remain in the rotation for the time being. Not sure what that means -- another 2 or 3 starts? Will it be a 6-man rotation for a while?

This is awesome news. It's the second time this week the FO has impressed me, this time with their flexibility.

I'm down for whatever creative approach they come up with to keep their ace as a possible starter in the playoffs.

This should also make for some positive vibes in the clubhouse.
China fan - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#328241) #
If the Jays use their off-days cautiously, they could give each starter as much as 6 days between starts this month.  That would benefit the health of Estrada and Sanchez, and maybe it would help Stroman and Happ as well, preserving their health for the playoffs.  If they can get through this month, rosters expand on Sept. 1 and it will become easier for the Jays to ease the workload of the starters. 

On the negative side:  it still seems to imply that Liriano and Dickey would get as many starts as the top starters, which is less than optimal.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#328242) #
At Bat, Sportsnet, and TSN Go Apps all announced 6-man Rotation.
China fan - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#328243) #
Richard, are you suggesting that those websites have a version different from what I've already posted?  Yes, it's a 6-man rotation, as everyone tweeted from Atkins's comments to the media about an hour ago, but that doesn't tell the full story.  The real question is: how long does the 6-man rotation exist?  Is it just for a week or two?  Or is it for the rest of the month?  Or is it for the remainder of the season?  There is nothing "locked in stone" (as Gibby would put it, mixing his metaphors).
grjas - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#328244) #
I doubt they've decided how long the 6 man rotation will last. Why not wait for a while and see how Liriano, Sanchez' arm and the new relievers perform before making the final call of if and when he transitions?
John Northey - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#328245) #
This is what I hoped for. Just makes sense. If Liriano is solid and Sanchez shows signs of slowing down then going back to 5 is easy with Sanchez in the pen. If Liriano has issues again easy to go back to a 5 man. As to playoffs there are tons of off days so we would see a 4 man rotation then regardless.
China fan - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#328246) #
"....Why not wait for a while and see..."

Yes, that's what I was implying.   I was just trying to make the point that the 6-man rotation isn't necessarily going to continue for more than a week or two.  It might continue for a while, or it might not.  The Jays are remaining flexible, as they should.

I was just trying to make clear that the Jays haven't announced a 6-man rotation for the entire remainder of the season, as Richard's post may have implied.
China fan - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#328247) #
The full transcript of the Atkins announcement is here:   https://www.facebook.com/gregorchisholmmlb/posts/1827206304181855

Interestingly, he said the six-man rotation would exist for "this short period of time" -- but didn't explain what that actually meant....

scottt - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#328248) #
and in fact the people who hate him most complain largely of new school type decisions - overaggresive use of RP, and using low defensive value positions to hide good bats, etc.

I don't think so. Let's start with the RP usage. Gibby likes to keep a starting pitcher in the game until he's reached his pitch limit or he think that pitcher is in trouble. Using Price to relieve Dickey when he had a huge lead was not overaggressive use of relief pitching. Price wasn't even a reliever. It was just pure lunacy.  If anything, Gibby is too hesitant to pull a starter early in a close game with a fully rested pen. The poor quality of the bullpen this year didn't help any. I'm still not sure if the Jays now have a reliever that can strand inherited runners. Maybe we don't need to know. Gibby might still not know what to do with a LOOGY, but he appears perfectly fine managing a solid bullpen of guys who can throw a clean inning. I have no problem with it, but that doesn't make it an amazing feat.

There was nothing new school about the litany of left fielders we saw last year who couldn't catch fly balls. Bad defensive outfielders were playing in left field before I was born. Just not guys who can't field at all like Cola.

Things that irked me was stuff like keeping Vernon Wells in the middle of the lineup when all he could do was hit infield flies. He's still old school in the way he favors vets and guys he's comfortable with, but I actually like the way he's managing the bench this year with the regulars rotating at DH to provide better defense or to rest a starter.

I think the real test for Gibby will be September when he'll have too many options for his own good.
I hope that will be fun to watch.


hypobole - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#328249) #
"I was just trying to make clear that the Jays haven't announced a 6-man rotation for the entire remainder of the season, as Richard's post may have implied."

Or may not have implied?
uglyone - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#328250) #
Everything really hitches on whether Liriano is a tire fire or not I think.
uglyone - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#328252) #
I don't even hear any real change in the plan from that statement, to be honest
SK in NJ - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#328253) #
I highly doubt they will stick to a 6-man rotation for long. Maybe short-term to give Sanchez another 1-2 starts, but if it lasts into September, I'd be very surprised.

Shapiro was adamant that Sanchez was not going to spend the rest of the season in the rotation. I doubt much has changed in the last 24 hours, even with the media scrutiny the decision has caused (both in the U.S. and Canadian media). They seem to have their minds made up, it's just a matter of when they pull the trigger, because once they put him in the pen, there's no turning back.
hypobole - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#328254) #
To change the subject, Buck keeps mentioning the fact Edwin is the MLB RBI leader. So EE must be pretty great with runners in scoring position.

Not really, in fact not even close to the best on the Jays.

wRC+, RISP

EE 117
Tulo 122
Martin 135
Pillar 138
Jose 165
Josh 177

SLG% RISP is almost the same order, with Pillar 3rd and Martin 4th.

hypobole - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#328255) #
And by almost the same order, I mean exactly the same order.
China fan - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#328256) #
"...I don't even hear any real change in the plan from that statement, to be honest...."

There's a lot of vagueness and flexibility in the Atkins statement.  That's why I disagreed with Richard's overly blunt statement in which he said that Atkins had "announced a 6-man rotation."   It's not that simple, and the timing is very unclear.
JB21 - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#328257) #
Does anybody ever sit back and think how insane it is that we obtained our first 4 batters via the trade and gave up pretty much nothing to get each of them. It would be fun to do the analysis and see what the WAR adds up to vs. what we gave up (so far).
Magpie - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#328258) #
It would be fun to do the analysis and see what the WAR adds up to

OK...

Travis 4.4 - Gose 0.5
Baustista 37.1 - Diaz 0.6
Donaldson 14.9 - Graveman 3.1, Lawrie 3.1, Nolan -0.2
Encarnacion 23.2 - Rolen 0.6

By my count 78.6 arrived and 7.7 went out. However, I've ignored Josh Roenicke, who came over with Encarnacion and managed -0.7 in his brief impersonation of a major league pitcher.
John Northey - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#328259) #
Well, Travis is (long term) via the Halladay trade (boy that trade just kept going didn't it?).
uglyone - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#328260) #
IN: 75.7fwar (+0.1 from zach stewart)
OUT: 11.0fwar

A cool +65war from those trades so far.
Magpie - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#328262) #
I was using BBRef, and tossed in a gratuitous typo - Scott Rolen was good for 7.6 WAR after the deal.

Man, that Bautista-Diaz trade. Hard to be more lopsided than that. Rance Mulliniks was similarly acquired for Absolutely Nothing, but Bautista's been way more valuable than Rance. And while Fred McGriff had more than 50 WAR in his future, the price included Mike Morgan, who had another 18 seasons as an average major league pitcher. Which was worth almost 30 WAR itself. Deals like Bautista-Diaz come around once in a generation. It's like Bagwell-Anderson.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#328264) #
Pitch of the game so far (DP ball off the bat of Correa). Nice work, J.A.
uglyone - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#328267) #
have i told you guys how much i love Travis?
greenfrog - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#328268) #
I seem to remember one game last year where the opposing pitcher said that Travis was the toughest out in the Jays lineup.
92-93 - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#328269) #
This will be Osuna's 4th appearance in 5 days; I'd start the 9th with another RP.
uglyone - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#328270) #
you're right, but damn osuna is awesome, even if the ump helped.

15 wins for Happ, 2/3 of the way thru the season. I'm sorry, Mssrs Shapiro and Atkins, Esquires.
BlueJayWay - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#328271) #
Osuna's pitched 4 times in 5 days, and 5 times in 7. Could use a couple days.
uglyone - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#328272) #
Osuna now tied in 3rd for RP with 1.8fwar, and 5th with 2.0ra9war.
John Northey - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 10:58 PM EDT (#328273) #
Looking at AA's Halladay trade and the fallout...
Halladay: 17.1 bWAR for Phillies (plus playoff no-hitter 3-2 2.37 ERA in playoffs)
Coming here...
Travis d'Arnaud: 0 WAR for us, 1.2 for NYM, a key part of the Dickey trade (6.8 WAR).
Kyle Drabek : -0.1 WAR here just 7 1/3 IP elsewhere
Michael Taylor: -1.1 WAR elsewhere, traded for Brett Wallace
Brett Wallace: 0.2 WAR elsewhere, traded for Anthony Gose.
Anthony Gose: 1.3 WAR here, 0.6 elsewhere, traded for Devon Travis.
Devon Travis: 4.4 WAR here so far.

So the trade was Halladay (17.1 WAR) for d'Arnaud & half of Dickey roughly (6.8 WAR, give half to d'Arnaud part of the trade so 3.4), Drabek (-0.1), Taylor (0) to Wallace (0) to Gose (1.3) to Travis (4.4).

So 17.1 against, 3.4-0.1+1.3+4.4 = 9.0. So if the Jays get another 8.1 WAR from Travis the trade works out in the long run. As Taylor (part of the deal) was 1-1 for Wallace who was 1-1 for Gose who was 1-1 for Travis. Travis arrived in time for this playoff quality Jays team while Halladay was in Philly for the end of their era of greatness. I'd say that worked out for both teams.
uglyone - Thursday, August 04 2016 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#328274) #
you know, with osuna and biagini killing it, and all of cecil grilli and Benoit looking like their normal high leverage selves again, the bullpen is looking kinda....stacked.
John Northey - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 12:21 AM EDT (#328275) #
Good point uglyone. Who knew the staff was going to be the teams strength this year?
Team ERA+: 113, #1 in league in ERA
Team OPS+: 103, #2 in runs scored

Go figure.
scottt - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 12:37 AM EDT (#328276) #
Special mention to Pillar for good baserunning.
scottt - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 01:01 AM EDT (#328277) #
The 6 man rotation when neither Baltimore nor Boston could  find decent 5 starters is a great PR move.
85bluejay - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 06:44 AM EDT (#328278) #
I know the Jays extended Smoak, maybe unwisely, but it's a very modest contract - with the White Sox just about out of the wild card race, I think a Smoak for Morneau deal would benefit both sides and both players should pass through waivers.
scottt - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 07:35 AM EDT (#328279) #
Morneau makes only 1M this year and is a free agent. What would be the gain for the White Sox?
85bluejay - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 07:45 AM EDT (#328280) #
The gain for the Sox is that they get Smoak for 2 years on a very reasonable contract - there's not much on FA & the Sox will need to fill that 1B/DH spot next year. Allows them to allocate money to other areas & Smoak's power should play up in that park & also allow Abreu to DH which is his best position.
Mike Green - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 08:48 AM EDT (#328281) #
This will be Osuna's 4th appearance in 5 days; I'd start the 9th with another RP.

Good call, 92-93.  I would have chosen Barnes for the 9th in that situation.  I was very pleased though with Gibbons' decision to pull Happ after 6 innings.  Many managers would have left him in, and Gibbons himself has done so at other times.  It does make it easier when the club has veteran relievers Benoit and Grilli who he has confidence in.

There were so many positives last night and from the Houston series as a whole.  Tulo seemed to be all right playing with the chip fracture.  Bautista appears to be much more comfortable (last night it showed in the field where he made a play on a deep liner that would have been routine for him 3 or 4 years ago, but has been an adventure in the last year and a half).  Martin still doesn't have the same zip on his throws but otherwise looks like the guy we know and love- he hasn't had one of those pesky passed balls in a long time and the bat is fine. 

Stepping back a bit, there seems to be little to be done but to enjoy the remainder of the season.  The club has the pieces it needs to win and has appropriate backups in the event of injury.  The minor league system is in good shape.  Even ownership has started to give back to fans.  It's nice to not be complaining about Rogers.

It's funny- April was a rough month both for the major league club and the minor league system; apparently new development personnel were not quite ready when the bell rang.  Since April, it's been a very well-oiled machine. I'm not surprised that it has worked out that way with the major league club, but that the minor league system has been boosted so quickly (with the aid of additional dollars from Rogers) is a very pleasant surprise.
electric carrot - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#328282) #
Long live the Six Headed Hydra! I'm a big fan of the 6 man rotation. I think it it's a creative way that solves many issues simultaneously.

Also, I agree with Mike. We're in a good place organizationally. I did have faith, even in April. Glad it was deserved. So yes, let's roll the dice with what we've got and see where things go!

fun.


 
SK in NJ - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#328283) #
The team has a whole looks stacked at the moment. It's a very deep roster. The bench has capable MLB players in Barney and Upton who can cover practically every position between the two of them (though a third bench guy could be useful). The rotation has six starters, and that's excluding the forgotten man in the bullpen in Feldman who could start on many teams. The bullpen is looking better with buy low pick-ups in Grilli and Benoit, and hopefully the return of normal Brett Cecil. If the stars play like stars, and obviously they remain reasonably healthy, then this roster has a legitimate chance to be the best team in the AL. What makes it even better is the farm system looks better now than it did a week ago with the additions of Ramirez and McGuire.

Can't complain. The front office has put the team in a good spot. The pieces are there to make a real run at a championship. The talent has to perform, and obviously some luck and good health will have to factor in as well.
China fan - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#328284) #
"....I was very pleased though with Gibbons' decision to pull Happ after 6 innings.  Many managers would have left him in, and Gibbons himself has done so at other times...."

In fact, Happ was badly laboring in the 6th inning, and Gibbons already had Barnes up and throwing in the bullpen in the early stages of the 6th inning.  At the start of the 6th inning, Happ threw 6 consecutive balls, without being close to the zone, and then allowed a single to light-hitting Alex Bregman.  At that point, the broadcasters were openly speculating that Happ had "lost his release point", and Barnes was up and throwing, so Gibbons was clearly contemplating a switch.  Happ was lucky to get out of the inning.  I wouldn't have been surprised if Gibbons had pulled him if he had allowed one more hit after the Bregman hit.  Happ miraculously got out of the inning with an Altuve fly ball and a close DP.  Then Gibbons replaced him at the start of the next inning.  It wasn't surprising at all.
pubster - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#328285) #
I believe Happ was also down 3-0 to Jose Altuve. If he walked him it would have been bases loaded with nobody out.
pubster - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#328286) #
In the pre-season, many posters liked the idea of a 6-man rotation.

Some posters thought it was a terrible idea because the Jays would be reducing how often their Cy Young candidate would start. The Cy Young Candidate being Marcus Stroman of course!

Funny how things end up working out.
China fan - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#328287) #
The six-man rotation is a good idea, and it helps the starters, but it does leave the team with a thin bench, along with a bullpen that can be a little taxed when the starters are going only 6 innings on many days.  I agree with SK that the bench is immensely helped by the defensive versatility of Barney and Upton.  The Jays can probably survive with a 3-man bench as long as Upton and Barney remain on the team.  As for the bullpen: it's probably okay too, since Feldman can do multiple innings.

Let's use tonight as an example of the bullpen question.  Osuna will not be available.  Based on Gibby's standard practice, I would expect that one of Grilli or Benoit will not be available.  (I know that some of us will strongly argue that both should be available, and conventionally they both should, but I believe the Jays are being a little cautious with their use of relievers, so I suspect one of those two will be unavailable tonight.)  That leaves, for tonight's bullpen:  Cecil, Biagini, Feldman, Barnes, and either Grilli or Benoit.  And Gibbons is mostly using Cecil for LOOGY situations now, so he's generally only good for one or two hitters.  And Biagini has been used a lot recently, and Barnes of course is a novice in the big leagues.  So, look, it's probably fine, but it could be a little thin.  And the Jays have twice gone into extra innings recently -- a manager has to keep that as a possibility in his mind too.  Tonight might be a good night for Feldman to go 2 or 3 innings to give a break to the rest of the bullpen.

China fan - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#328288) #
"....I believe Happ was also down 3-0 to Jose Altuve...."

You're right, his first 3 pitches to Altuve were balls.  I was shouting "throw strikes" at the TV screen for most of the inning....
soupman - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#328289) #
re: Halladay trade


Doc had a year left on his deal with the Jays and was going to sign elsewhere according to everything I've ever read. So I would evaluate it based on Halladay's 8.3rWAR for 2010 + theoretical 2010 comp pick value.

IMS, teams picking in the top half had picks protected, so outside of the Marlins signing him, or Yelich falling elsewhere in this bizarro world - your best hopes are the Jays draft some guys named Aaron Sanchez and Syndergaard.(!!!)







soupman - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#328290) #
edit:
the comp pick for halladay, obviously, would have come in 2011.

that said, the back half of the 2011 draft wasn't exactly packed with a load of future starters and all stars either.
Mike Green - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#328291) #
I agree with all that, CF.  Nonetheless, Happ had thrown less than 90 pitches and had been very effective prior to the 6th inning.  Gibbons has brought out starters many times in the 7th in similar situations, and he is not alone.  He must have done it 10 times with Dickey alone over the last few years to my great frustration.   
China fan - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#328292) #
"....Gibbons has brought out starters many times in the 7th in similar situations, and he is not alone...."

That's true, but I would argue that last night was a unique situation, since Happ was pitching so badly in the 6th inning.  Of his first 10 pitches in that inning, 9 were balls.  It was quite extraordinary, and the broadcasters were talking about him losing his release point.  He made a very lucky recovery, but I think it was a very unusual situation that any manager would have recognized as a danger point.  (And I'm even a little worried about Happ's next start, although I'm sure Pete Walker will work with him to restore his release point.)

Your larger point is that Gibbons should be pulling some of his starters earlier.  That might be true -- I haven't seen enough data to form an opinion -- but at what cost to the bullpen?  That's got to be weighing on Gibby's mind.  He's got to preserve the bullpen, and it's hard to do that if the bullpen is into the game after 5 innings.
Mike Green - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#328293) #
That isn't my point, CF.  This year, Gibbons has mostly made good judgments about when to pull starters.  I am not at all suggesting that he should be routinely pulling them after 5 innings, Sparky Anderson style.  In fact, it may be that with a 6 man rotation, for a while at least, the starters are well rested in August and able to consistently go 6-7 as they have been doing all season.  It should be easier though to decide on a particular day that the starter simply does not have it given the strength of the bullpen now. 
China fan - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#328294) #
I wonder if there's an implicit agreement that Sanchez will be pulled earlier, as part of the effort to keep him in the rotation.  Could that have been part of the discussions when Atkins suddenly flew to Houston to meet him?  Maybe there could even be an informal system of "tandem" starts:  5 innings by Sanchez, 3 innings by Feldman...
pubster - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#328295) #
""....Gibbons has brought out starters many times in the 7th in similar situations, and he is not alone....""

Yeah, but when you can go Benoit to Grilli to Osuna you take it

:)
uglyone - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#328296) #
my problem with the 6 man rotation is the roster crunch. you still need a 7 man pen which means a short bench.
uglyone - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#328297) #
"The rotation has six starters"

welll...let's wait to see whether Doc Martin can work more of his voodoo tonight on Liriano first.
Mike Green - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#328298) #
It could be.  I am in favour of longer relief stints.  You could use Biagini and Feldman in this way.  I particularly like bringing on a reliever with a 2 run plus lead to start the 6th or 7th (depending on how the starter is doing), and if things go well, letting him finish it off for the long save.  It's also helpful so that you can have somebody ready to do the same thing in extras if needed. 

It's a different Royals team with Cheslor in for Moustakas.  They hit LHP better than RHP.  Alex Gordon has had trouble against both RHPs and LHPs but has hit like a pitcher against LHP.  I guess Cecil has a pretty limited role this weekend. 

uglyone - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#328299) #
"then this roster has a legitimate chance to be the best team in the AL."

they've been that all year, and since last year, imo.
uglyone - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#328300) #
For the record I think Cecil being a LOOGY is a big waste.

This guy has been one of the best relievers in baseball the last few years, period.
uglyone - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#328301) #
not sure if this is completely new or if I just wasn't listening closerly enough yesterday....


TSN.ca Quotes -----------

""I think what changed for us, a couple of things: input from more people, one of those people being Francisco Liriano, who was open to anything and everything," Atkins said. "That opened things up for us to think about things differently. And then talking to Aaron about it and how strongly he felt about staying in the rotation, that fortunately we're in a situation where we're able to do it."

...

Atkins added that it's not a definite that Sanchez would move to the bullpen later this season.

"I think what we're going to do is really try to work with Aaron to give this team the best chance to win," Atkins said. "We do have thresholds that would be uncomfortable. There's not a scenario where he pitches 220, 230 innings.

"He's going to go into a territory that's uncomfortable and uncommon and he's comfortable with that. We've worked together on what that range or territory should be but there's so many variables that will contribute to what's best for him and this team."

--------------


My 2 takeaways:

1. Sanchez will be pitching more than just a 20-30% increase in workload, sounds like.

2. Liriano being a reliever is a distinct possibility.
China fan - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#328302) #
I agree that Cecil has been a great reliever in the past, but he hasn't been good this year.  You can't blame Gibbons for limiting him to 1 or 2 batters now.  And the recent games have generally been very close-fought tight games, where Gibby has to use his most reliable relievers without taking any chances.  Maybe Cecil could get some more innings in blow-outs and gradually regain the manager's trust.  But even generously giving preference to his xFIP of 3.68 this year (rather than his ERA), that's not a good number for a high-leverage reliever.  And even since his return from injury at the end of June, when we thought he was improving, the opposition is still hitting him to the tune of an .804 OPS since his return.   I hope Cecil can turn it around, and I believe that he'll get his chances,  But in a close game, when better relievers are available, why not choose your spots and use him strategically for one or two batters?
SK in NJ - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#328303) #
"welll...let's wait to see whether Doc Martin can work more of his voodoo tonight on Liriano first."


I was just saying they have six starters + Feldman because that's the current set-up. If Liriano fails, then I'm sure they won't have six starters for long. I don't know what to expect from him. The velocity and strike outs are still there. Whether Martin, a change of scenery, or whatever else can fix him remains to be seen.
SK in NJ - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#328304) #
"I wonder if there's an implicit agreement that Sanchez will be pulled earlier, as part of the effort to keep him in the rotation. Could that have been part of the discussions when Atkins suddenly flew to Houston to meet him? Maybe there could even be an informal system of "tandem" starts: 5 innings by Sanchez, 3 innings by Feldman..."


I think there would have to be some sort of agreement between the FO, Gibbons, and Sanchez to lower his IP. Even if by some chance a six man rotation lasts until the end of the season, that would still put Sanchez at 9 (?) more starts, and he could easily accumulate 40-50 more innings in that span depending on performance/health.

A 5 inning max followed by Feldman is a nice idea. Or skip Sanchez's starts entirely once or twice with the off days mixed in. Regardless, I don't think they can afford to have many more 7 IP starts from him, even if he's on a manageable pitch count. The FO obviously cares about the total number of IP so I'm guessing they came to some sort of arrangement to minimize it from here on out.
Mike Green - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#328305) #
For the record I think Cecil being a LOOGY is a big waste.
This guy has been one of the best relievers in baseball the last few years, period.

With this bullpen, it makes sense for Cecil to face considerably more LHBs than RHBs. That doesn't mean one-out use most of the time, but each opponent presents a different issue.  The Royals sent out a lineup yesterday against Smyly with Hosmer, Morales, Perez and Gordon at the core.  You could send out Cecil to face all 4, or just Gordon (Morales for some reason has hit LHPs much better than RHPs this year so far). 

I do think that Cecil is a better reliever than anyone on the club save Osuna, but I also think that Benoit and Grilli form a perfectly fine 7-8 combination if that makes the manager more comfortable.
Mike Green - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#328306) #
John Northey - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#328307) #
I suspect the limit is 200 IP and that is regular plus playoffs. 210 if the Jays are in the WS. Given they said no way to 220+ I think 200-210 is their absolute limit.

So 139 so far, 9 starts x 6 IP = 54 more = 193 IP leaving 17 max for playoffs as a reliever to make the pen a killer finish (Osuna/Sanchez/Grilli/Benoit/Biagini/Cecil/Feldman). The playoff rotation would be Happ/Estrada/Stroman with either Dickey or Liriano getting the game 4 start in each series. That should scare the crap out of other teams and we haven't touched the offense.
hypobole - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#328308) #
We're still too hung up on innings. Pitch count totals are at least as much of a factor.

Don't check BBRef's stats much but I did today. 3 of their top 14 WAR pitchers are Jays - Sanchez, Estrada and Happ.

I was rather surprised by their WAR leaders - Sox Quintana and Tigers rookie Fulmer. Interestingly, the Tigers FO has a somewhat similar dilemma with Fulmer as ours with Sanchez.

http://www.theoaklandpress.com/sports/20160803/tigers-arent-facing-a-fulmer-shutdown-if-they-continue-to-be-careful
jerjapan - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#328310) #
That's an interesting read on Barnes Mike - kid wrote his uni thesis on the economic value of teams resigning their own fee agents, and he credits the regime's new high-performance dept. for some of his success this year:

“They’ve helped with little things here and there, more on the mental side – not being afraid to attack hitters, getting after it right away, just focusing on what you can control,” he said.

He's having a heck of a year - if he gets a couple of consecutive clean innings, his WHIP will drop below .5 - amazing given his average stuff.
hypobole - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#328311) #
Thanks Mike, I also found the Lott story interesting, especially the high performance department bit jerjapan mentioned. (Kudos to the FO for that).

I remember Andy Seiler at MLB Bonus Baby giving a thumbs up to the Barnes pick back in 2010. He became one of my irrational minor league follows until the injuries hit. Thought he wouldn't be anything more than an org guy afterward, so I'm very pleasantly surprised by his season and debut.
Dave Till - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#328312) #
John Lott's articles are always interesting and informative. Thanks for the link.

By the way: the Jays now have the highest run differential in the American League, at +86. The Indians are +85, and the Red Sox are +83. The Cubbies are the highest in baseball at +171.
Mike Green - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#328313) #
The best team defence in the American League (using a DRS/UZR average) belongs to the Blue Jays.  It certainly played a role in the outcome of the 4 games in Houston. 

I have long believed that pitching and defence are synergistic.  The 2016 Blue Jays would be another example.  I felt that projections for the Blue Jay pitching staff as a whole at the start of the season were too pessimistic for this very reason. 
grjas - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#328314) #
I love the unpredictability of this game. No one on the face of the planet would have predicted we'd be sitting with three of the top six pitchers by ERA at this point in the season, especially when none of them has the last name Stroman

Another of the many reasons I put little stock in the plethora of baseball predictive modelling methodologies.
jjdynomite - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#328315) #
There should be a Russell Martin corollary for any predictive modelling methodologies applied to major league staffs for which he is the battery-mate.

[Note: can be expanded for teams that have guys named Pillar and Tulowitzki up the middle].
jerjapan - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#328316) #
one of my irrational minor league follows

I'm with you on that one Hypobole, easy to pull for those guys, especially if they are also coming back from injury. 

Both Smiths in AA - Murphy and Chris - fit into that category for me.  Perhaps with Rowen lost on waivers one of them will get a crack at AAA this year. 

Jevant - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#328317) #
Let's hope we are improving on that number by the end of the weekend (certainly feels like we should be able to).
Mike Green - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#328318) #
Today is a big day for Blue Jay birthdays.  Birthday wishes to Rick Bosetti, John Olerud, John Wasdin, Bobby Kielty and Eric Hinske. 
grjas - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#328319) #
There should be a Russell Martin corollary for any predictive modelling methodologies applied to major league staffs for which he is the battery-mate.

If he can turn Liriano around, I'll vote for that.
92-93 - Friday, August 05 2016 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#328320) #
Grilli threw 11 pitches yesterday and 15 pitches on Tuesday and is in the midst of a completely standard workload, so I have no idea why he wouldn't be available tonight if needed. Benoit threw 11 pitches last night coming off two off days. Biagini has thrown 9 pitches in the last 3 days in one appearance. Cecil, Barnes, and Feldman all need work. There should be nothing thin about the Jays bullpen tonight, and I'll repeat the same sentiment - if it is shorthanded, it's a poorly constructed bullpen.

Personally, I don't see the 6 man rotation as an excuse for carrying a 3 man bench. I would option Barnes to the minors for another bat, and I would only carry a 13th pitcher if the team has an absolutely clear need that day. When you are carrying 6 SP there is ALWAYS a backup arm available in case of emergency anyway, and the worst thing that happens is you burn the next day's SP and make adjustment's after the game.

When Justin Smoak leads off the 8th inning in a 2-1 game with a double, you need to be able to use a pinch runner there, and Gibbons can't without losing his DH at the same time. It seemed quite costly at the time when Smoak got thrown out after Pillar fell behind 0-2 and then did a hell of a job hitting the ball to the right side.
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