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Series Schedule / Probable Starters

Monday at 1:05 pm ET - R.A. Dickey (9-13, 4.43) vs. Masahiro Tanaka (11-4, 3.12)
Tuesday at 7:05 pm ET - Aaron Sanchez (13-2, 2.88) vs. Luis Cessa (4-0, 4.17)
Wednesday at 7:05 pm ET - Marcus Stroman (9-6, 4.58) vs. TBA

Blue Jays @ Yankees - September 5-7 | 260 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Magpie - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#330717) #
True fact. I once complained, on this very site, that Dickey's move to first base was a balk.
uglyone - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#330718) #
can we go to a 4 man rotation?
Magpie - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#330719) #
Soon!

Might have found the LH reliever this team's needed all year long.
Chuck - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#330720) #
You really have to wonder how many starts Dickey has left as a Blue Jay.

And is Saunders simply no longer permitted to face a LHP? Even with a ridiculously short porch in RF?
Magpie - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#330721) #
I definitely don't buy this "Cecil just needs more work" line that Buck has pushed a few times lately. Despite missing almost two months, he's now appeared in 43 games. He led the team in appearances in April, July, and August (tied with Grilli). He'd have worked more innings if he'd been able to get a few more guys out.
Magpie - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#330722) #
And is Saunders simply no longer permitted to face a LHP?

Especially in view of the fact that Saunders has a reverse platoon split this season. Which is a little out of character, but he normally doesn't have much of a platoon split anyway. I would think that the one regular you pinch hit for on this team is Pillar.

On the other hand, Saunders is hitting .190 since the All-Star Break.
Magpie - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#330723) #
No, we've never seen anything like Gary Sanchez before. After all, Kevin Maas hit just 10 HRs in first 25 games.
Chuck - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#330724) #
Pillar is, it would seem, untouchable.

Sanchez resembles ARod both in face and in posture. I wonder how he feels about centaurs.
Chuck - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#330725) #
On the other hand, Saunders is hitting .190 since the All-Star Break.

I hear you, but Gibbons is still batting him 4th or 5th, which is a definite sign of confidence. Saunders + reverse split + fence about 300 feet away... sounds like a good reason to keep him in. There would still be plenty of other PH opportunities for Martin in this game. It didn't have to be in that at-bat.

Magpie - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#330726) #
True. He's been all over the lineup (everywhere but 9th) but his most common positions have been 4th (48 starts) and 1st (18 starts.)
Chuck - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#330727) #
How poor has Saunders' second half been? His first half/second half splits are: 923/712. So slumping 712 Saunders is still out-hitting, for the season, Upton (including his good SD self), Pillar, Carrera, Navarro and Barney.

It has certainly seemed like the struggling version of Saunders has been much worse than this.

Mike Green - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#330728) #
I don't think that we will see a 4 man rotation any time soon.  The club plays 13 straight games between the 9th and the 21st, and they are trying to keep Sanchez' innings down.  They might even go back to the 6 man rotation during that spell.

Saunders hasn't seen a left-handed pitcher since Tyler Skaggs on August 23.  He's been pinch-hit for twice and been kept out of a game with a left-handed starter.  It's a bit strange because he has been hot, hitting .286/.359/.621 (with a much reduced strikeout rate) over his last 12 games before today. Prior to that (from roughly the All-Star berth hoo-ha), he had been ice-cold and looked terrible at the plate.

PeterG - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#330729) #
Not only has Saunders 2nd half been poor, his first half may not have been near as good as some thought. In mid August, Fangraphs published an article with a clutch hitting stat showing that Saunders was the least clutch hitter in the entire league.....dead last among regulars.
jerjapan - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#330730) #
Please forgive my ignorance on this subject, but is 'clutch' a real thing?  I recall articles a few years back debunking the concept, and than other more recent articles indicating that there may be some effect in some circumstances.  Would love to hear the collective wisdom of the Box on the subject.
Kasi - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#330731) #
Well clutch I think has been shown to be not very repeatable. Not so sure on the reverse of clutch though. The numbers for Saunders were amusing not because they were the worst for this year (which they were/are although funny enough I think Bryant was second) but that they were the worst in a season since the stats have been available back in the 70s.
Alex Obal - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#330732) #
I'm starting to think the Super Fun Padres might be a decent value bet in the NL West next year. Just find a couple starting pitchers...
scottt - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#330733) #
Saunders was nursing a sore hamstring and missed a few extra games.


jerjapan - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#330734) #
I read that article too Kasi, that's what got me thinking about it (perhaps you posted it?).  I assume normal clutch / reverse clutch results are random, but Saunders has been so bad I started to question if it was a real thing. 
 
greenfrog - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#330736) #
Moment of truth in the SD game, right now.
Magpie - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#330737) #
There's some truth for ya.
BlueJayWay - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#330738) #
Jays remain in first with Boston's loss.

Problem is, Detroit and Baltimore winning means the Jays are only 2 games inside a playoff spot.

Kasi - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#330739) #
Jerjapan looking at his stats his clutch and WPA are both fairly negative for his career. It's not just a this year thing although this season has been worse than normal. I'd be more likely to believe that unclutch happens more than clutch. Just human psychology to think that people would do worse under pressure than actually becoming better at hitting a baseball when the pressure is on. However that is just a guess and I have no science behind it, just really thinking anecdotally.

Well I guess one think I can think of that somewhat suggests this could happen is basketball and free throws. There is a significant number of players who shoot much worse at the line than at the same spot during live action. And I know some of those players have gone to psychologists to help them work out those issues. Free throw shooting is very mechanical yet many players can't go more than 50-60%. Does the same thing go through a hitters mind when their is a runner on base or they could tie the game with their actions as compared to lower leverage situations? I don't know but it seems it could make sense. Ideally someone goes and makes a study on it.
greenfrog - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#330740) #
There are a few teams to watch out for in the AL playoff race, New York included. To make the postseason, the Jays are going to have to win their share of ballgames and not rely on other teams playing poorly.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#330741) #
Exactly,Greenfrog. The Jays really need to rip off a five game or better winning streak. Right now the closest teams have been sputtering a bit,too, but eventually somebody is going to get hot.
uglyone - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#330742) #
I think we've forgotten that we only moved into first place a couple weeks ago, after a long long stretch of lots of winning. we've stumbled here going 1-3 here but we just won 5 of 6 before that and had a 17-11 august.

iirc we've got the best record in the league since april (gotta doublecheck that).
King Ryan - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#330743) #
It's just been kind of a weird season because it doesn't seem like they've had like a long winning streak or had that many series sweeps. Of course a team can win 2 out of every 3 and be far and away the best team in baseball, but it just doesn't quite feel like last year when they had those 11-game win streaks and that crazy stretch where they seemed to average 10 runs/game.

Toss in a few disappointing series against some last-place team, and it weirdly feels like they're not having as good of a season as they actually are.

I checked and if I'm not mistaken, the recent sweep of the Twins was their 3rd 3-game sweep of the year, which strikes me as quite low for a 1st place club, but I could be wrong. Does anyone have any context for that? And even THAT series felt not great because it felt more like the terrible Twins losing than the Jays winning.
Magpie - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#330744) #
iirc we've got the best record in the league since april (gotta doublecheck that).

Best in the division (66-46, .589), third best in the league. Cleveland (69-45, .605) and Texas (68-46, .596) have been a little better. Along with the Cubs (72-43, .626)
uglyone - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#330745) #
APR

BAL 14-9, .609
BOS 14-10, .583
DET 13-10, .565
CLE 10-11, .476
TOR 11-14, .440

MAY

BOS 18-10, .643
TOR 17-12, .583
CLE 16-13, .552
BAL 14-13, .519
DET 11-17, .393

JUN

CLE 22-6, .786
BAL 19-9, .679
DET 17-11, .607
TOR 15-12, .556
BOS 10-16, .385

JUL

TOR 16-8, .667
DET 16-10, .615
BOS 15-10, .600
CLE 12-12, .500
BAL 12-14, .462

AUG

TOR 17-11, .607
BOS 17-13, .567
DET 15-13, .536
CLE 16-14, .533
BAL 13-16, .448

SEP

CLE 3-1, .750
DET 3-1, .750
BAL 3-1, .750
BOS 2-2, .500
TOR 1-3, .250

SEP + AUG

TOR 18-14 .563
DET 18-14 .563
BOS 19-15 .559
CLE 19-15 .559
BAL 16-16 .500

SEP + AUG + JUL

TOR 34-22 .607
DET 34-24 .586
BOS 34-25 .576
CLE 31-27 .535
BAL 28-30 .483

SEP + AUG + JUL + JUN

CLE 53-33 .616
DET 51-35 .593
TOR 49-34 .590
BAL 47-39 .547
BOS 44-41 .518

SEP + AUG + JUL + JUN + MAY

CLE 69-46 .600
TOR 66-46 .589
BOS 62-51 .549
DET 62-52 .544
BAL 61-52 .540

FULL Season

CLE 79-56 .585
TOR 77-60 .562
BOS 76-61 .555
BAL 75-62 .547
DET 75-62 .547
greenfrog - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#330746) #
Uglyone, if we're trying to honestly assess the quality of the various teams in the AL East, shouldn't we be looking at Pyth W-L and BaseRuns instead of actual W-L?

Red Sox 2016 Pyth W-L: 81-55
Jays 2016 Pyth W-L: 78-58
O's 2016 Pyth W-L: 69-67

Red Sox 2016 BaseRuns: 85-51
Jays 2016 BaseRuns: 77-59
O's 2016 BaseRuns: 70-66

By those metrics, the Red Sox are clearly the best team in the division (and the league).
Alex Obal - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#330747) #
Who are the best bad-ball hitters on the Blue Jays' roster?
Chuck - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#330748) #
Who are the best bad-ball hitters on the Blue Jays' roster?

I am guessing that a future answer to this question will be Vlad Guerrero Jr.

Magpie - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#330749) #
The team's record this year in ten game chunks:

5-5
5-5
5-5
4-6
6-4
6-4
8-2
4-6
7-3
6-4
7-3
5-5
6-4

They're so steady, so consistent, that they're a little boring. Especially after the thunder and lighting of last year's second half.
King Ryan - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#330750) #
That's a better way of illustrating what I was trying to say, Magpie. A team that goes 6-4 over every 10-game stretch is a damned good team, but doesn't really "feel" like one somehow.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 12:26 AM EDT (#330751) #
it's true. consistency is sometimes more frustrating than inconsistency.

because we don't really feel that the team has ever really put it all together for any real stretch.

but maybe they're just timing their peak perfectly :)
Magpie - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 12:53 AM EDT (#330752) #
but doesn't really "feel" like one somehow.

Well, they keep losing four out of ten!

But yeah, it simply doesn't feel much different from losing five of ten.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 12:59 AM EDT (#330753) #
Oh, I hope Dewey's asleep...
uglyone - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 01:22 AM EDT (#330754) #
greenfrog, good point, record usually does regress to pythag and baseruns.....but sometimes pythag and baseruns are out of whack themselves, and they have their own regression to worry about......and one of the ways that can happen is for a team to ride an unsustainable high or low babip which distorts pythag and baseruns' picture of the team quality.

and maybe it's my red sox hate talking but I still am pretty sure boston's insane babip hotness to start the year imo inflated those numbers quite a bit. even a good babip team (outside of coors) is lucky to be above .310 but the sox rode a ridiculous .340+ for the first two months which was not remotely sustainable. Even if you don't believe babip is fluky in general, a .340 team babip is still a crazy number that really can't last.

BOS APR-MAY: .341babip, 121wrc+, 5.9r/g, +1.5rdiff/g
BOS JUN-AUG: .314babip, 109wrc+, 5.1r/g, +0.5rdiff/g

The overall season line is still well inflated (.327 which would be the 2nd highest season total since the 1800s) but at least it's come down to a reasonable (but still high) .314babip since that early surge.

Now that second split is still damn good, and that babip is still very high...but not insanely high for a club built to hit that way. It's much more sustainable. But that 2nd split is not the elite offensive and run/diff team that the .341babip team of the first 2 months was. I think the 5 run per game offense is probably a better representation of their offense than the babip inflated 6 run per game offense was.

Or to put it another way - the Jays have had a slightly better offense (5.4r/g to 5.3) and run diff since the end of may than the red sox, which means that the idea that the red sox are better than the jays in this respect is entirely based on those first 2 months with the insane babip.....which personally i think is a bad idea.


p.s. That's what was so awesome about the jays offense last year - it didn't even need babip help to hit at an historic level.

85bluejay - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 02:45 AM EDT (#330755) #
With AL East teams beating up on each other in September, good chance that Detroit & Houston end up as the wild card teams.
scottt - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 06:05 AM EDT (#330756) #
Houston is playing Cleveland now and Baltimore will be a Detroit this weekend.
It may all come down to the last week.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 08:01 AM EDT (#330758) #
This season has definitely seemed frustratingly consistent. No really long winning streaks (or losing streaks thankfully) or stretches of dominance. They've just kind of played good ball all season without ever seeming like they have dominated in one way or another, whereas last season it was a season of streaks combined with a huge run differential. The SP has faltered a bit lately which might explain the recent struggles, but since the 2nd game of the Angels series, they have gone 6-6 despite the regression (66 runs vs. 67 runs against). So to their credit they have been able to avoid any prolonged losing streaks or bad stretches.

I'm not sure what to expect in the last month. As mentioned, with so many H2H games within the East, I expect the Tigers to get one of the WC spots with the 2nd place team in the East getting the other. The Jays obviously have to avoid finishing 3rd in the East.
bpoz - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 08:13 AM EDT (#330759) #
Until the 2nd half of 2015 the Jays have never been a team to pull of incredible winning streaks. I mean 10-2 would be 5-1 and 5-1. Not 9-1 and 1-1 or even 10-2. From what I can remember.
Jonny German - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#330760) #
The 2015 Jays won 11 straight in the beginning of June.

And of course 11 straight at the beginning of August.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#330764) #
The Jays have lost three of the last four and are still in First Place with a one game lead. They won 7 straight once, going 8-2 to start July. They finished May and started June going 9-2. Then after two straight losses they continued in June going 8-2. They seem to win four straight often (7 times), but rarely (once) more.

The Jays' season looks like they should win it all, but it looks like it will not be easy. I just don't think they are having fun playing.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#330765) #
Travis bats ninth again today.  Smoak is in at first base with a RH starting pitcher for the Yankees, and Sanchez giving up a few ground balls.  Saunders bats sixth. 
92-93 - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#330766) #
I look forward to tonight's game so yesterday's game can stop bothering me. For those who missed it, it was a very winnable game. Tanaka's final line looked nice, but the Jays let him off the hook repeatedly. He was frequently behind in the account and the hitters either scalded balls right at somebody or figured out a way to get themselves out. Tanaka walked one guy in all of August but the Jays managed 3 walks. Bautista made a boneheaded base running decision, making the 3rd out trying to go first to third on a single to left that caromed off a wall instead of making it into a corner; the play was right in front of him. The Yankees took the 2-1 lead on a HR to the short porch in RF, but when Navarro skied a fly ball out there with a runner on the giant Aaron Sanchez was able to prevent a potential HR/double by catching the ball at the top of the ridiculously short wall. If the offense had managed to get anything started in the early going perhaps Gibbons would've been quicker to pull Dickey instead of allowing the 2 run Tyler Austin double that made it a 5-1 game. Once the bullpen was used they provided 4 innings of excellent relief work, but apparently Liriano had to leave with a back issue that needs monitoring. On to the next.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#330767) #
With the off-day Thursday, Gibbons is switching Sanchez and Dickey. Sanchez gets the Red Sox on Sunday, Dickey opens the Tampa Bay series.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#330768) #
The club announced that the rotation for the weekend is Estrada, Happ and, Sanchez.  It makes sense to have Sanchez face the Sox rather than Dickey. 
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#330769) #
He was frequently behind in the account

Nice.  The Jays ought to make him pay with interest when the Yankees visit in a couple of weeks.
Alex Obal - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#330771) #
Don't run on Bautista!
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#330772) #
Best throw by Bautista all year. 
Magpie - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#330773) #
He saves them for the Yankees in September.
King Ryan - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#330778) #
Is there any chance Pillar did that on purpose to fake-out Gardner? I couldn't tell without seeing a replay that shows both of them.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#330779) #
Unlikely, I think.  More likely that both Pillar and Gardner misjudged the ball because the bat was so completely shattered. 
Magpie - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#330780) #
More likely that both Pillar and Gardner misjudged the ball

Agreed. They were both surprised that the ball carried as far as it did. Pillar's thinking "easy base hit, I'm gonna score" - and then - "holy crap, he might catch it."
Alex Obal - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#330781) #
You can't stop Pillar. You can only make use of the open third base and then go get Smoak.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#330782) #
Pillar has drawn a month's worth of walks in the past few games.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#330783) #
Smoak: "I promise I won't strike out this time."
CeeBee - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#330784) #
One of the times a strikeout would have been better.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#330785) #
Pillar demonstrates the new break-up-the-DP slide. He slides through the base, and then wraps his arms around it to make sure he stays on the bag.
92-93 - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#330786) #
I would've pinch hit for Smoak in that crucial spot. I had little confidence in his ability to bring in a run there with the bases loaded and one out. Can't keep him in for defense in a 2-1 game in Yankee Stadium in the 6th.

This game is playing out in yesterday's frustrating fashion, only they aren't losing yet because Sanchez is a boss. They've been pretty unfortunate to not have 10+ runs over these two games so far.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#330787) #
Sanchez has a snappy curve today.  He is murder on right-handed batters when he does. 
eudaimon - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#330788) #
I might have pinch hit for him too, even though I imagine it's pretty insulting to pinch-hit for someone that early. He's slow and easy to play the shift against. The only real benefit is the fact that he's a lefty playing in one of the most lefty-friendly ballparks in baseball. However, in a game like this I'd be happy to just get another insurance run.

Magpie - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#330789) #
Just a perfect storm of awful. But I wouldn't have bothered pinch-hitting for him - I'd be thinking what's the worst that can happen? A double play? Well, Smoak is one of the least likely guys on the team to hit into a DP because he so seldom hits the ball on the ground. He either strikes out or hits it in the air.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#330790) #
Sanchez has been outstanding tonight (and has picked up Travis a couple of times). It sure would be nice if his teammates gave him a bit more breathing room. But I think Aaron is capable of bringing this one home.

Question: if Sanchez is at 90-100 pitches heading to the bottom of the 9th and the Jays are leading 2-1, do you leave him in or go with Osuna?
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#330791) #
Scratch that.
King Ryan - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#330792) #
I would have still gone to Osuna if it's a one-run game. No question.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#330793) #
Man plans, God laughs.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#330794) #
Same old song. SP has been good, the offense is a letdown. The Jays better score in the 8th, otherwise they'd be in a tough spot having to score on Betances.
King Ryan - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#330795) #
Score early, blow chances to add insurance, eventually lose by one run. This story is so old. Please give us a new one.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#330796) #
Betances will face Smoak in the 9th. Any chance that won't be a K?
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#330797) #
I guess Gibbons doesn't have much confidence at all in Saunders.  I would have left him.
electric carrot - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#330798) #
me too -- prefer Saunders in this situation.
Kasi - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#330799) #
Smoak gave a high visibility failure sure, but not like the top of the order has done better either. We need one of those three or four to get hot. Looked like Josh was about to, but maybe it was just facing the awful Twins. If one of those guys doesn't get hot the Jays won't hold on to first.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#330800) #
Betances will face Smoak in the 9th. Any chance that won't be a K?

Well, there's a chance.

Let's see - AL batters strike out in 20.6% of their plate appearances.

But Justin Smoak strikes out in 33.8% of his plate appearances.

And hitters strike out against Dellin Betances in 44.7% of their plate appearances.

Catcher's interference, anyone?
King Ryan - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#330801) #
Kind of surprised they don't just go to Betances with 2 out in the 8th.
King Ryan - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#330802) #
Now I'm REALLY surprised. Really Joe, you're going to make 7 pitching changes in the inning and not just ask your best guy to get one extra out?
Magpie - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#330803) #
Anyone see the play White Sox SS Tim Anderson just made? Whoa...
Magpie - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#330804) #
This story is so old. Please give us a new one.

Your wish...
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#330805) #
Huzzah!
King Ryan - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#330806) #
And that's what you do when they bring in some guy with a 6 something ERA instead of Betances. thank you, Kevin!
Alex Obal - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#330807) #
Pillar cranks a fastball into the gale and drives in both runners. Smoak is spared. Just a virtuoso reverse jinx from Chuck there, right when we needed it most.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#330808) #
Finally, a clutch hit !
Chuck - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#330809) #
Fully expecting Smoak to homer now off some reliever I have never heard of.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#330810) #
Leadoff walks get you every time, most of the time.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#330811) #
A whole month of this stuff is going to be exhausting.
King Ryan - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#330812) #
Well, I asked for a new story, I didn't ask for a win.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#330813) #
Okay, so we're back to Betances facing Smoak, then.
King Ryan - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#330814) #
Now Smoak will homer off Betances, because baseball.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#330815) #
I asked for a new story

I may have spoken too soon.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#330816) #
Never mind me. I've gotten a tad confused.
scottt - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#330817) #
but when Navarro skied a fly ball out there with a runner on the giant Aaron Sanchez was able to prevent a potential HR/double by catching the ball at the top of the ridiculously short wall.

I'm guessing Aaron Judge here.
eudaimon - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#330818) #
Travis was the last batter, so if Smoak comes to the plate we're doing pretty well.

Grilli might have hit a bit of a rough patch. That's 4... well now 6 ER allowed in his last three outings.

Alex Obal - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#330819) #
Smoak's due up 8th, but he certainly could come up with the bases loaded and the Yankees leading 7-6.
King Ryan - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#330820) #
Sort of felt like the kiss of death when Shulman mentioned that Osuna wasn't warming and that it was Grilli's inning.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#330821) #
Yes, I have become unstuck in time.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#330822) #
The Jays are in first place, but there are a lot of hungry teams right behind them in the standings. It would not take much to suddenly fall behind three or four other teams.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#330823) #
That's 4... well now 6 ER allowed in his last three outings.

After 5 ER allowed in his first 33 games as a Jay. Go figure.
dan gordon - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#330824) #
I didn't like that pitch selection on the 0-2 pitch to Castro with the score tied and the tying run on 3rd. He looked absolutely clueless on the first 2 curveballs. I was saying give him that pitch again, he's not going to hit it. Instead they throw him a fastball, and bingo, the game's tied.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#330825) #
I liked the pitch call to Castro. It reminded me of Game 3 of the '92 World Series, Reardon fooled Candy Maldanado with the breaking ball twice, but made the mistake of giving him a third straight breaking ball which Candy hit solidly for a sac fly and the win.

Unfortunately, Castro and the Yankees just got plain lucky, flicking out his bat on that one.

King Ryan - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#330826) #
Hell, Sanchez did that just a few innings ago. Seemed to fool McCann on the changeup and then tried it again, and gave up a bomb.

Baseball is hard.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#330827) #
Come on! Seven straight walks and then some Smoak magic.
CeeBee - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#330828) #
Just when you think it's getting better...... it isn't.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#330829) #
The baseball gods right a wrong.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#330830) #
Does a guy with a 630 OPS even have a wheel house?
Chuck - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#330831) #
Yep, this all just a prelude to Smoak. The gods have the gears in motion.
CeeBee - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#330832) #
nah... just an out house.
King Ryan - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#330833) #
Smoak vs. Betances ... DENIED! Just.

If he grounds into a double play I give up.
King Ryan - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#330834) #
Pillar strikes out looking for the first time in his career.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#330835) #
One run loss.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#330836) #
Are you kidding?
CeeBee - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#330837) #
just a teaser
King Ryan - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#330838) #
Uh. Wow.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#330839) #
Damn.
King Ryan - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#330840) #
Chuck, had you heard of Blake Parker?
Alex Obal - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#330841) #
7 terrific at-bats, and the only lousy one came from the guy who was 3-for-3 with a walk.

If they always battled like that...
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#330842) #
Between the Castro excuse me swing, the missed catcher's interference, Sanchez's "block" of the wild pitch, and the ball somehow staying in Gardner's glove (let alone how close it was to going out), that's the luckiest I think I've ever seen a team get.

Jays have to find a way to suck this one up. Just absolutely devastating.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#330843) #
Shoots webs out of his wrist? Works at the Daily Bugle? Know him well.
King Ryan - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#330844) #
Right, so, as I said. Score some runs early, blow chances to get any insurance, give up the lead, get it back, give it up again, knock around Betances, load the bases and lose by one run.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#330845) #
Whatever. Win the division, win a WC spot, miss the playoffs...it's just baseball.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#330846) #
So... this means I'm doing the Red Sox series thread? Moi? Guaranteed Series Loss Guy?

Gulp.

I guess it's time for that worm to turn.
Dr. Zarco - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#330847) #
That might be one of the most painful regular season losses I can remember. There have been plenty of tough losses, but as has been pointed out, the incredible string of events leading to that loss are hard to swallow. The kicker is that it is September in a pennant race for why it might take the cake.

These snakebit losses were a commonplace in 22yrs of losing and the team seemed to have turned fortunes over the past 14 months. I hope this is not an omen that the luck, or lack thereof, has returned.

As Magpie says though, still going to wake up tomorrow in first place.
Smaj - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#330848) #
Reverse the trend Magpie....rally cap; rally monkey; wear a garter belt; clear the mechanism; carve some WonderBoy bats; Jobu blessings.......anything to get these guys on a roll & reverse your trend.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#330849) #
And don't forget to breathe through your eyes.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 06 2016 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#330850) #
I thought for sure that was a grand slam by Smoak. Just a brutal way to lose.
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 12:16 AM EDT (#330851) #
Watching that Gardner catch again, I'm very surprised the Jays didn't at least challenge to see if Gardner had trapped it off the wall, or caught it off a split second ricochet. He clearly caught it, but you'd think in a play that close taking place that distance away, the Jays were resigned to accepting the on-field call. Interesting.
King Ryan - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 12:28 AM EDT (#330852) #
"Watching that Gardner catch again ..."

Do you not own any forks that you can put into your eyes?
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 01:03 AM EDT (#330853) #
I admit it was hard. Even harder because the replays are from the YES network.

A great, great ballgame. The Yankees are hot right now, but they are not on the same level as the Jays or Red Sox. Some correction or regression to the mean is coming

Bautista played a great ballgame tonight, Sanchez pitched well again, the loss came because of some bad luck and an outstanding play. With 24 games left, I still feel this team has an extended hot streak left, especially the offence. Outside of fans who joined us in August of last season, I don't think there's much doubt the Jays will take this division.
Chuck - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 06:23 AM EDT (#330855) #
I don't think there's much doubt the Jays will take this division.

You can still be an optimist and concede that there is room for at least a little doubt, especially when there is currently a dead heat for first place.

Something untoward about the Red Sox beating up on a guy named Clemens last night.

Petey Baseball - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:17 AM EDT (#330856) #
Bautista had a long flyout yesterday, and it appears that the condition of his legs is the culprit behind his dip in power.

He's still getting pitched to as if he's the 50 HR guy, though. Which is why the walks alone are more than enough justification to hit him leadoff.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#330857) #
There's definitely some doubt as to whether the Jays will win the division. From a talent standpoint, they can win the division without question, but the teams are so close together with a bunch of head to head games remaining. It's going to be a crazy finish.

The offense needs to get it together. Grilli was bound to have a bad game (Benoit will likely have one of these as well unfortunately). Bad timing, but the offense is the bigger culprit. The bats need to step up down the stretch.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#330858) #
Luck comes in many forms.  The Yankee broadcast crew had the standard distance on Encarnacion's homer as 425 feet.  Hit Tracker had it as a true distance of 432 feet.  It was a screamer with a low apex (82 feet) and the highest velocity off bat of any home run of the day.  It was a no-doubter, but still probably affected by the wind.  The wind was blowing in from left-field, and it sure looked blustery by the time the game ended.  I'd venture a guess that Smoak's ball would have left the yard under most wind conditions.  Hit Tracker measures lucky homers, but not unlucky outs. 

Headley's homer was a JE to right field.

I guess that it isn't entirely luck.  As a pitcher, you want to make sure that the LH hitters don't pull the ball on a night like last one's.  There wasn't much that Smoak could do with that pitch better than what he did. 

Jevant - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#330859) #
This is pretty impressive foreshadowing here.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#330861) #
To homer spin this mini slump - a couple late inning rallies tells me that there is another gear for this team offensively that's right there waiting to be used, and that maybe they need a bit of losing to get the motivation to start using it consistently in every at bat.
eudaimon - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#330862) #
Silver linings:

1. Girardi used pretty much every good bullpen arm he had, and we definitely will not see Betances today.
2. The team continues to show that they have spark even when they're sucking.
3. The offense may be coming around. They difference in the last two days have mostly been batting with RISP, and they looked good in the 9th.

Gerry - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#330863) #
Just bought my 12 allowable post season tickets that flex pack holders were permitted to buy. It was the usual ticketmaster sh*t show, lots of spinning circles for waiting.

$440 for a world series ticket is a bit steep, but still I hope to be able to use it.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#330866) #
Joe Rudi turns 70 today.  Rudi was a big part of the Mustache Gang A's club, winners of the World Series from 1972-74.  Rudi had a nice balance of skills but was neither the player nor the personality that Reggie Jackson was- I am sure he is remembered only by those of a certain age. 
Magpie - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#330867) #
Rudi was a good player. He was also one of those guys who was described as "under-rated" so often that he ended up being over-rated.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#330868) #
Yep.  He was a very good player through age 30 and faded quickly.  His age 30 BBRef comps include Luis Gonzalez, Steve Kemp, Von Hayes, Sixto Lezcano, Alex Rios and Norm Siebern.  He wasn't quite as good as Lezcano (who was as good a defender and reached base more), but in the same range as the others.  The only one of the comps who was any good after age 30 was Gonzalez. 
uglyone - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#330870) #
We've gone back to a more traditional batting order today, with our best defenaive setup, so this would make everyone happy if it works

1. 2B Travis
2. 3B Donaldson
3. 1B Encarnacion
4. DH Bautista
5. C Martin
6. SS Tulowitzki
7. RF Saunders
8. LF Upton
9. CF Pillar
scottt - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#330872) #
I think the plan is to keep rotating the players.

It might be just me, but I noticed that Martin like to start an at-bat with an off-speed pitch and if it's a ball ask for the exact same pitch again trying to get the pitcher to execute for a strike. If it works, the count is 1-1 and the pitcher can go anywhere, but I've seen it fail a lot and the count go to 2-0. Which seems to lead to an eventual walk and more strikes to the next hitter with a runner on base.

It's not that it's a bad strategy. It just seems exploitable because it's predictable.

SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#330873) #
This is the team's ideal lineup and batting order going forward, IMO. Just alternate Saunders/Bautista in RF depending on who you want to DH/play the field on that particular day.
Four Seamer - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#330874) #

Travis breaking out of this defensive slump he's in would certainly be a positive development.  Not inspiring a lot of confidence at the moment, I must say.

Chuck - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#330875) #
Pillar's 4th walk in 5 games.
Alex Obal - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#330876) #
That kamikaze hack at the 2-1 fastball a foot inside, with Mitchell's control totally MIA never mind his command, was way out of character. It's not like it led to the double play necessarily, but there's a world of difference between 3-1 and 2-2. Every time it seems like they're about to start grinding a pitcher down...
Magpie - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#330877) #
That's what we call a Squander.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#330878) #
It may be that Travis's fielding woes are starting to carry over to his approach at the plate.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#330879) #
That 2-1 swing by Travis was terrible, especially with Mitchell not being able to find the strike zone. Having Bautista leading off would have paid off tonight as he would not have let Mitchell off the hook with his spotty command in that spot.
Alex Obal - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#330880) #
It must be hard to maintain your focus and intensity playing in barren mausoleums like Tropicana Field and Yankee Stadium.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#330882) #
Bautista took a bad hack at the 2-2 in the second inning to fly out
weakly.  Unfortunately, a poor approach has been common to quite a few
of the players. 
Alex Obal - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#330883) #
I mean, if you're worried that some guy might have a lousy approach with runners on base, you bat him after Upton and Pillar and make getting on base his job, no?
Alex Obal - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#330884) #
Martin is charmed. He just tried to backhand a breaking ball and let it go through the five-hole, but it hit the ump and stayed home. Naturally Stroman punches out Headley on the next pitch to strand the runners.

Who wants it less?

SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#330885) #
It's been so long since the Jays were relevant in September prior to last season that I forgot what a September collapse looked like. Please don't let this be one.
Dr. Zarco - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#330886) #
The Jays have scored first in 7 straight, but have gone 2-5. I suppose letting the Yanks score first was a good idea tonight. Time to hit.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#330887) #
Who wants it less?

Sometimes the problem is wanting it too much. You want to be loose, confident, focused, in a flow state. If you try too hard to force the issue, you're going to make outs.
Kasi - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#330888) #
Well this ideal lineup isn't really getting better results. I hope they'll remember at some point they're supposed to be elite hitters.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#330889) #
Special measures are clearly required.

 photo jobuK.jpg
Dr. Zarco - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#330890) #
The performance of hitters facing guys off the DL in the last week has not been good. Cobb shut them down after poor numbers in the minors, now Mitchell. Hope this series isn't the harbinger of the month to come. 538's playoff odds were 92% a few days ago, now 76%. O's and Tigers have already lost today, which helps.

4 innings left to salvage a win from a disastrous series.
eudaimon - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#330891) #
This is just kind of painful to watch at this point. What's worrying is that everyone on the team is a bit sketchy at the moment. In the early going, we only won because our starting pitching was doing well. What do we have to rely on now? The starters are all slumping a bit (except maybe Sanchez), the bullpen is coming down to earth a bit (even Osuna hasn't pitched particularly well of late), and the hitters have been inconsistent, or just unable to string anything together. Not to mention the defensive issues - Travis has become worrisome in the field. It's all fixable, but they really don't have time to go on a losing skid.
Kasi - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#330892) #
Wel I don't think the hitting struggles early in games is helping the pitching much. It feels like they're always behind or struggling since to stay in front they pretty much have to throw a shutout. I don't think that approach is wearing well on the starters.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#330893) #
"Well this ideal lineup isn't really getting better results. I hope they'll remember at some point they're supposed to be elite hitters."


Unfortunately, that's really all that can be done; just hope these guys start hitting like they are supposed to. They can't afford to go on this type of bad stretch right now. Not with this many teams so close in the standings.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#330894) #
If the Jays lose tonight, they'll be 1-5 since Mike Green pointed out that it's too early to talk about playoff rosters.

A sacrifice to the God's might be in order. Rum might not be enough.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#330895) #
"You can bet Severino is going to throw another slider in this at bat…that's his bread-and-butter pitch…" -Buck Martinez

(Bautista strikes out on an inside fastball on the next pitch)
eudaimon - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#330896) #
I think what this team needs is more Navarro at DH ;)
Kasi - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#330897) #
Well lead off double by Travis with the three veteran hitters up. They couldn't get a baserunner to third. I hope this is just a slump rather than more signs of decline, but looking at this lineup I don't see this getting any better next year.
Four Seamer - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#330898) #
How embarrassing then for Bautista to strike out on what isn't even Severino's best pitch.
eudaimon - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#330899) #
That you can count on just being part of a slump. Of Donaldson, Encarnacion, and Bautista, only the last guy is potentially in decline. Donaldson is definitely just slumping, and Encarnacion is actually one of the few guys hitting at all right now.
Chuck - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#330900) #
BM: "Carlos Beltran was just taking up space."

When traded, his OPS+ was 131.

Mike Green - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#330901) #
YES has David Cone who has plenty of insights about pitching- making a frustrating game more bearable.
Kasi - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#330902) #
Let's see if the Jays can cash this double in any better.
Kasi - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#330903) #
Nope. :( Although that was the right call. Also seems fairly clear Martin is injured a bit. Hope the day off helps some.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#330904) #
This business of pinning outfielders to the wall is obviously not working well. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#330905) #
Good move to bring in Osuna in the 8th.  He needs the work.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#330906) #
Edwin trying to upstage Smoak with the latest "let me get everyone excited by the ball off the bat before missing a HR by inches".
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#330907) #
Fabulous tag by Travis. 
Four Seamer - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#330908) #
That was a dreadful at-bat from Bautista.
Four Seamer - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#330909) #
Not much better efforts from Navarro and Tulowitzki, to be fair.
scottt - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#330910) #
Here's hoping 88 games is enough to make the playoffs.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#330911) #
88 wins won't be enough.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#330912) #
There are just too many teams within striking distance to lose 5 of 6 at this point. Even the Yankees have climbed to 3.5 games out of the 1st WC and they play the Jays four more times in Toronto.

The road trip being over and an off day Thursday is desperately needed. What a terrible 9 game stretch. Even in the Orioles series that they won they couldn't pounce on the O's three worst starters, but got bailed out by the SP/pen.

Needless to say they need to win the next series and get hot from there.

D. King - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#330913) #
I was in the Bronx tonight and it appeared that Martin hurt himself on the first swing of his at bat in the 4th inning. Not sure if that was caught in the broadcast but after a big cut he definitely grimaced and took a few extra steps while Sanchez stalled by moving around the dirt a bit. Hopefully it is a minor issue.

I do get the sense that this team needs a spark: something that makes them angry. A big series against the Red Sox does provide an ideal setting for such an event.
scottt - Wednesday, September 07 2016 @ 11:46 PM EDT (#330914) #
A choke would make it easy to not resign the free agents and that would be it for Gibbons, too.
uglyone - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 03:13 AM EDT (#330915) #
just when we were hoping finally the team would start clicking on all cylinders for the first time all year, suddenly they're trying to run on no cylinders at all.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 05:12 AM EDT (#330916) #
On the bright side, Stroman and the bullpen pitched well and,uh,... I guess that's it.
Chuck - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 07:33 AM EDT (#330917) #
Not sure if that was caught in the broadcast but after a big cut he definitely grimaced and took a few extra steps

Yes, that was very clear in the broadcast and commented upon. It looks like he perhaps tweaked his back, although in retrospect it could have been his knee, which was the center of attention as the night wore on.

Jevant - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#330918) #
Baseball is funny.  If they had gone 5-1 in the last 6 to pull into the position of being a game behind, we'd be all talking about momentum, and how we are about to track down the Red Sox, etc.  Since it's the other way, it's all doom and gloom.

The team was going to go through a mini-slump at some point.  They've been very consistent this year, just picked an annoying time for some mis-firing.  I expect they'll come out and win the Red Sox series and then being at home against the Rays should help.  This was always going to be a tough few days - the Red Sox were getting a pretty easy 6 game road trip, while we got the Rays (who historically we struggle with) and the Yankees (who we also have historically struggled with).  Let's just take care of business this weekend and we'll be in good shape.

Parker - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#330920) #
just when we were hoping finally the team would start clicking on all cylinders for the first time all year

Bit of a mixed metaphor there, old chap. You want the team to click, and you want them to fire on all cylinders, but clicking on all cylinders is likely the result of a terrible air/fuel mixture or no spark, and as a result the engine isn't running at all. :)

I'll go back to hiding out now.
Kasi - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#330921) #
Jays are only hitting .250 as a team and have their best hitters in the .290 range. They still do quite well when they hit the ball, but there is a lot of inconsistency built into this team. Right now we're seeing the negative side of that. Goes back to what SK said at the beginning of this year. If this team is going to succeed it needs its stars to perform, other than Josh and to a lesser extent EE they're still too inconsistent, so when Josh goes cold like he is now this team doesn't score a lot.
Chuck - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#330922) #
Last year versus this year.

2015: 79-60, 5.50 RPG (1st), 4.14 RAG (5th), 1.4 diff (1st)
2016: 77-62, 4.86 RPG (4th), 4.17 RAG (1st), 0.7 diff (2nd)

Given that scoring in the AL has increased by 7% since last year (4.29 to 4.58), I will present the RPG and RAG as percentage of league average, to better contextualize the team's new profile.

2015: +28% RPG, +3% RAG
2016: +6% RPG, +9% RAG

In both 2015 and 2016, the team's run scoring and run prevention were better than the league norms (though of course the offense in 2015 was insanely better than the norm). In 2016, the run prevention has been more prominent than the run scoring, which surprises no one around here.

We know the pitching improved because Sanchez, Happ and Estrada have exceeded expectations (maybe not everybody's, but many people's). But what of the drop in offense?

At the team level, the team's OPS+ has dropped from 115 to 102 and we can certainly identify specific players responsible for this decline. But I have argued in the past that the 2015 offense was not merely a function of better individual performances, but a function of a level of clutchiness that could not be expected to be repeated.

2015: bases empty 735, men on 879 (men on 44% of time)
2016: bases empty 743, men on 790 (men on 43% of time)

For context, this is what the AL did:
2015: bases empty 711, men on 756
2016: bases empty 735, men on 767

In 2015, the Jays got more than the league-wide 45 point bump with men on base. They went crazy, with a 144 point bump. They were clutchy far beyond reasonable. The thing about being clutchy, though, is that it seems much less a repeatable skill than a byproduct of chance.

Fast forward to 2016 and we see the AL bump is 32 points, slightly exceeded by the Jays' 47 point bump. That the Jays are even on the clutchy side of the ledger in 2016 feels very different to what we have been experiencing the past couple of weeks.

Not sure that there is a moral to all of the above, expect perhaps that the business about the team being "elite" hitters needs to be tempered somewhat, since this is based on their 2015 performance which the baseball gods infused with a heapin' helpin' of clutchy goodness.

Mike Green - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#330923) #
The reduced clutchiness was predictable.  The extent of decline in offensive production, given the improvement in the league averages, certainly surprised me.  You live with older players, you die with older players...

I'd love to see Pompey be given a shot in left-field.  They do need an injection of youth somehow, and there is no one else. 

Mike Green - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#330924) #
Perhaps there is another theory.  The strike zone has moved a bit since the All-Star game 2015.   In particular the pitch up and in to RHBs has been called a strike more often, and the one down less often. For left-handed hitters, the strike zone shift has not been even-handed for pitchers as pitches up and down the middle have been called strikes more often while pitches down and in an down and away have been called strikes less often.  This might be a particular problem for the Blue Jay lineup.  Adaptability is, I suppose, more challenging as you get older.
Kasi - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#330925) #
Yeah last year the team was first in league WPA. This year 16th. Some of the counting stats are good, but in context they've underperformed. I always felt this model was very short term, the question was how much so. I don't think this is an elite hitting team next year even if they keep the roster intact.
BlueJayWay - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#330926) #
I just want the Jays to go on a 12 game winning streak starting tomorrow. Is that too much to ask?
SK in NJ - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#330927) #
If Bautista were having a typical season for him, and Tulo resembled the player he was pre-2015 rather than the ~100 wRC+ player he has been since, then the team would be better even with the expected regression from last season. Individual regression has played a part, in addition to "clutchness" as mentioned. Unfortunately, age does not discriminate with athletes, and injuries typically increase with age. When 3/5 of the team's expected stars are not performing up to star standards (2.9 WAR combined for JB/TT), then it's going to be very difficult for this team to win. This isn't last season's AL East. The rotation being as good as it has been is the main reason for this team's success.

All you can really do at this point is keep playing these guys and hope they play to their talent level in the final 3 weeks of the season. There's no magic fix here. This team is either good enough or they are not. This group's shelf-life was always going to end in 2016, as they'll need a massive retooling after this season to remain competitive. We just have to hope they have one or two more good months of baseball left as a unit.
uglyone - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#330928) #
The Jays are still one of the best offenses in baseball.

The difference from last year, as I've illustrated before, is that the bottom of the order and bench guys have been useless this year, unlike last year.
uglyone - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#330929) #
Hah Parker I woke up at 3 in the morning and posted that, looked at it funny, then hit submit anyways.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#330930) #
Speaking of declining older players, the Yankees are probably a better team after the deadline than they were before it.  They've lost Chapman, Miller, A-Rod and Beltran, and Teixeira is playing less.  They've added Clippard, Severino (from the minors), Mitchell (returning from injury), Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge and Tyler Austin.

When Biagini intentionally walked Gregorius with two outs and a runner on second to face Teixeira, that was saying something.  When he struck out Teixeira easily, that put an exclamation point at the end of it. 

Greg Bird will presumably return next year, and with all the payroll room, the Yankees are a pretty good bet to have an excellent club.

Chuck - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#330931) #
Some of the counting stats are good, but in context they've underperformed.

In context of what? Their OPS+ is 102 and they are scoring 6% more runs than league average.

uglyone - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#330932) #
Smoak 322pa, 92wrc+
Barney 288pa, 86wrc+
Pillar 498pa, 80wrc+
Carrera 259pa, 78wrc+
Upton 128pa, 58wrc+
Goins 184pa, 40wrc+
Thole 134pa, 22wrc+

Lake 39pa, 73wrc+
Navarro 16pa, 50wrc+
Ceciliani 28pa, -5wrc+
Colabello 32pa, -39wrc+


That's a whole lotta offensive deadweight, and we were sold on our team valuing depth and rejecting the "stars'n'scrubs" philosophy, no less.

last year we received 230pa from guys who were awful at the plate (i.e. sub-80wrc+), this year we're already at 820pa. Heck, this year we've already had 400pa from guys who are sub-50wrc+, which is horrendous.
uglyone - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#330933) #
And I agree Mike that they should really consider giving Pompey a shot at the LF spot. The team needs some kind of spark, and there's no way he'll be any worse than Upton/Carrera anyways.
Parker - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#330934) #
Hah Parker I woke up at 3 in the morning and posted that, looked at it funny, then hit submit anyways.

It's all good, bro. :)
SK in NJ - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#330935) #
Cashman has done a very good job the past two seasons. Instead of trying to throw money into the roster like he did the previous decade, he's accepted a more strategic long-term mode of team building, and it's likely to pay off pretty soon (if not already). The haul he was able to get at this year's trade deadline was amazing.

If the Jays were out of it at the deadline, then it's interesting to think about what they could have done with Bautista, Edwin, Saunders, etc, as trade bait. Obviously, making the playoffs this season is/was the top priority and they still have a great chance of doing it, so selling in July was out of the question, but if they happened to be in the Yankees spot at the time, they may have been able to start fixing the team's issues going forward. Let's just hope they make the post season in some capacity this season (preferably the East but settle for the WC). If they miss the playoffs entirely, and then let everyone walk for comp picks and/or nothing, then it will be the worst case scenario come to life.
Kasi - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#330936) #
Well entirety for that is Colabello dropping off a cliff and Pillar going from average to below average. I'm not sure you can complain about the stars strategy. They have JD, Tulo, Martin, EE, Jose taking up 5/9 spots. Pillar is at least elite defensively and Saunders has had a fine offensive year. I guess your point is we should get more all stars to fill out the other spots in the lineup? Who is this star we should have gotten to fill out the lineup? I've heard Votto bandied about but we don't have the prospects to get him anyway.

Anyway just more arbitrary numbers that try to prove that its the bench guys on the team (which every team even the best teams have) are whats wrong with this team instead of the declining bats of everyone not named Josh.
uglyone - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#330937) #
"If the Jays were out of it at the deadline, then it's interesting to think about what they could have done with Bautista, Edwin, Saunders, etc, as trade bait"

we can only dream, eh?
uglyone - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#330938) #
"Anyway just more arbitrary numbers that try to prove that its the bench guys on the team (which every team even the best teams have) are whats wrong with this team instead of the declining bats of everyone not named Josh."

Again, we have one of the best offenses in baseball this year.
Kasi - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#330939) #
From 2015 to 2016: (WRC)

JD: 154 -> 157
EE: 150 -> 137
Travis: 135 -> 107
Martin: 114 -> 103
Jose: 148 -> 112
Pillar: 93 -> 80

Clearly all of the Jays underperforming this year has to do with those scrubs. Not the stars who have collectively lost an average of 10 WRC from last year.
Parker - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#330940) #
Well, hopefully with a capable scouting and development system, the Jays can reap the rewards of keeping Bautista and Encarnacion to the end of the season, qualify them, and take those draft picks and run.

Saunders is the real question mark, in my opinion. He's the only soon-to-be free agent who isn't a lock one way or the other.
Chuck - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#330941) #
That's a whole lotta offensive deadweight, and we were sold on our team valuing depth and rejecting the "stars'n'scrubs" philosophy, no less.

I don't dispute those non-stellar scrub numbers, but wonder how much of the brunt they bear versus the decline in performance from the regulars.

Over-30 crowd:
Bautista 146/110
Encarnacion 149/136
Martin 113/101

20-somethings:
Travis 132/106
Smoak 106/91
Pillar 94/81
Goins/Goins+Barney 84/70

Improvers:
Donaldson 152/155
Tulowitzki 90/104
Revere/Saunders 102/124

Kasi - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#330942) #
I don't think the Jays have one of the best offenses. Well the counting stats are fine, but the variance isn't. The Jays offense is very hit or miss. Which means that despite being pretty good in WRC and total runs scored, the Jays are league average in WPA. Which means the Jays runs are coming when they don't matter. Which is why you had someone like Saunders first half when his counting stats were great but he actually didn't do anything to help the Jays win. As we've all seen the Jays this year are good at scoring when the game is a blowout, either scoring a few late to make a loss better or piling on when the game is out of reach.
SK in NJ - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#330943) #
I'm not sure how anyone can blame the bench for the team's offensive regression from last season to this season. Aside from Donaldson, practically every important player on the team has regressed either mildly or significantly. Sure, having a player with a .411 BABIP off the bench would have been helpful this season, but that's not the reason the Jays offense is what it is. As others have mentioned, it's not just the older guys either (Pillar and Travis have also fell off from last season).

Still a good offense, but not a world beater anymore.
uglyone - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#330944) #
Last year - This year

wrc+

Tulo/Reyes 92 --- 104 +12
Donaldson 154 --- 157 +3
Martin 114 ------ 103 -11
Encarnacion 150 - 137 -13

There is no "decline" there.

Bautista 148 ---- 112 -36

There's one.
uglyone - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#330945) #
"I don't think the Jays have one of the best offenses. "

I'm not sure this is a matter of opinion, to be honest.
uglyone - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#330946) #
"JD: 154 -> 157
EE: 150 -> 137
Travis: 135 -> 107
Martin: 114 -> 103
Jose: 148 -> 112
Pillar: 93 -> 80

Clearly all of the Jays underperforming this year has to do with those scrubs."

Travis and Pillar were in the "scrubs" section, of course.
Kasi - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#330947) #
Keep telling yourself that when the Jays underperform against another subpar starter. If only we could play the Twins all the time though I'm sure our numbers would look great. We all thought the offense would improve when Jose and Pillar came back and pushed bench players back to the bench. Well it hasn't. By most of the counting stats (WRC, fangraphs offensive war, wOBA) the Jays are 7-8th in baseball. I wouldn't call that a great offense. A good offense with severe consistency issues sure, but not great.
uglyone - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#330948) #
So now you're saying they pad their stats against good pitching?
Kasi - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#330949) #
I just don't see how you can blame the scrubs for the performance this year. With Travis they had as their starting lineup every position set with a vet player except 1b/DH backup. That is literally the only position they could have improved more, either by playing one of the OF at DH and bringing in an OF or bringing in another 1B/DH type. So basically the complaint is our scrubs suck too much when we have established vets/stars at 8/9 positions? I don't buy that argument, you're not going to bring in a great bat to sit on the bench behind those guys, it's just not good value.
Chuck - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#330950) #
Greg Bird will presumably return next year, and with all the payroll room, the Yankees are a pretty good bet to have an excellent club.

I'm not sure I am as sold on this new-look Yankee team just yet. For all the talk of the energizing effect of the young players (Buck's mantra these past few days), only one non-pitcher has been performing (and how!) and he is sure to regress a huge amount. But the others? Judge? Austin? Torryes? Refsnyder? Hicks? Are there any locks among them? Any reason for true excitement?

Bird will surely be a big improvement over the guy currently wearing Teixeira's uniform. Severino could perhaps step in to the role of 8th inning guy. Those are two to keep a close eye on in 2017.

But Gardner? Ellsbury? Castro? Headley? None of them really enthuse me, and I don't know that they are going anywhere.

I expect McCann will fall victim to the purge (with the Yanks eating much of his contract).

I am interested to see if Cashman reverts to cash-man with newly freed up money. Or will lessons have been learned about old guys and how the age? Will he now take a different approach to team-building? (some could argue that he already has)

Kasi - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#330951) #
Well you can argue that the Jays do a lot better against pitchers they've faced before. I'm not sure if that is a league wide thing or not though. All I'm saying is that even going by counting stats the Jays are at the bottom of the first quarter of offensive stats. Aka 75%. That's not great. It's good for sure but I don't think its fair to label them a great offensive team.

What I am saying is they pad their stats in low leverage situations. Now whether that has any predictive value going forward is dubious, but so far this year the Jays are pretty damn poor at sequencing.
Chuck - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#330952) #
he Jays are league average in WPA. Which means the Jays runs are coming when they don't matter.

Your conclusion makes sense were you describing the team ranking last in WPA, not in the middle of the pack.

SK in NJ - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#330953) #
"we can only dream, eh?"


Dream, no. Wonder, yes. When the Yankees can get Dillon Tate for 2 months of a 40 year old DH parading around in the outfield, then yes, I'd be interested to see what the Jays could have gotten if they were in a position to sell in July (which they weren't).
Kasi - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#330954) #
Well more as compared to last year Chuck when the Jays were first by a mile. I think it is just another stat that says what you said above in regards to the 2015 performance. The Jays were much better at sequencing last year. Jays this year are better at scoring when down or up big, but thats probably not unusual since that is when worse pitchers are in. No they're not league worst there, but going from a 12.5 WPA last year to a 2 this year is a significant drop.
uglyone - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#330956) #
"I just don't see how you can blame the scrubs for the performance this year. With Travis they had as their starting lineup every position set with a vet player except 1b/DH backup. That is literally the only position they could have improved more, either by playing one of the OF at DH and bringing in an OF or bringing in another 1B/DH type. So basically the complaint is our scrubs suck too much when we have established vets/stars at 8/9 positions? I don't buy that argument, you're not going to bring in a great bat to sit on the bench behind those guys, it's just not good value."

You came in this morning and tried to force your narrative that the Jays' offense isn't as good as last year because their stars have declined from last year due to age.

This isn't true.
uglyone - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#330957) #
"Dream, no. Wonder, yes. When the Yankees can get Dillon Tate for 2 months of a 40 year old DH parading around in the outfield, then yes, I'd be interested to see what the Jays could have gotten if they were in a position to sell in July (which they weren't)."

heh.

You're more envious of the yankees this year than the rangers. That is funny.
uglyone - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#330958) #
"What I am saying is they pad their stats in low leverage situations."

High Lev: 106wrc+ (#3 mlb)
Medium Lev: 98wrc+ (#18 mlb)
Low Lev: 106wrc+ (#4 mlb)

Bases Empty: 98wrc+ (#11 mlb)
Runners On: 109wrc+ (#4 mlb)
RISP: 106wrc+ (#7 mlb)
Chuck - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#330959) #
No they're not league worst there, but going from a 12.5 WPA last year to a 2 this year is a significant drop.

Indeed it is. And a huge reason that their offense is down so much (their luck is merely normal now). But your argument was hyperbolic which was masking your true point.

It's your prerogative to present your opinions as you choose, but know that hyperbolic assertions will be greeted at face value and treated as sincere rather than satirical.

Mike Green - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#330960) #
Chuck,  I see an infield of Sanchez, Bird, Castro, Gregorius and Headley. That looks to me to be pretty good. 

Aaron Judge is an interesting one.  He obviously has tremendous power.  He showed me something  the other day with his single up the middle off Sanchez.  His minor league record is consistent with better offensive performance than he has yet displayed (and in particular a much better contact rate).  He has decent mobility for a big man in right field.  I think that he'll be pretty good and a nice complement to Ellsbury and Gardner (one of whom is ripe to be traded).  Brian McCann is useful in the catcher/DH role or might make a better first baseman with Bird becoming a DH. 

There are obvious holes in the pitching staff, but money to spend to fill them. 

It's not so much the total talent, but the shape of it that has me impressed.  When the Yankees have been great over their history, young players developed within the system have played a key role.  I see that coming for the Yankees over the next few years. 

Chuck - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#330961) #
It's not so much the total talent, but the shape of it that has me impressed. When the Yankees have been great over their history, young players developed within the system have played a key role. I see that coming for the Yankees over the next few years.

I agree with all of this. If indeed problems are no longer "solved" with fat paycheques to 30-something free agents, then a new day will be upon us.

Parker - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#330962) #
You came in this morning and tried to force your narrative that the Jays' offense isn't as good as last year because their stars have declined from last year due to age. This isn't true.

That's a really difficult argument to make, other than Bautista's expected decline at the plate and in the field... Donaldson and Encarnacion have both been monsters this year. Martin and Tulo got off to rough stars but are still providing very solid value on the season. Who are the Jays' other offensive stars?
Parker - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#330963) #
Pillar has been a disgrace at the plate this year. Goins has been awful and only marginally supplanted by Travis. Smoak is replacement-level. It's not the stars that are the problem.
uglyone - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#330964) #
I've always found the perception of the Yanks to be weird.

Sure, they recently had a bit of a glut of guys on the tail end of their big contracts who were clearly no longer worth that money, which you build into your projections when signing them, but they made the playoffs last year, have only missed the playoffs 3 times in the last 21 years, and only finished lower than 2nd in the division twice in the last 23yrs - both times finishing 3rd. The last time they finished as low as 4th was 1992.

They bought into a Jeter led core knowing there would be a few years of tough contract sledding afterwords but have shown that it's not actually very hard to quickly turn that around and rebuild.

I doubt they regret the big contracts or selling off all sorts of good prospects over that time either, and I'd guess they'll happily do the same going forward.



SK in NJ - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#330966) #
"You're more envious of the yankees this year than the rangers. That is funny."


Why would I be envious of the Rangers? The Jays did not have the calibre of prospects to trade that the Rangers had, and the one difference maker they did trade for (Lucroy) made no sense for the Jays or for Lucroy himself because of the position he plays and the fact that he had a NTC (never mind the prospects required to get him).

Also, the Jays trade deadline pick-ups have combined for a 1.1 WAR (Upton, Benoit, Feldman, and Liriano). The Rangers trade deadline pick-ups have also combined for a 1.1 WAR (Lucroy, Beltran, Jeffress, Alvarez, Harrell). The latter has largely been because of Lucroy.

Incremental improvement was made by the Jays. Again, it is their stars that will make or break their season, not their bit players.

Also, I'm not "envious" of the Yankees, as much as I am impressed by their moves. They will see the fruits of those moves pretty soon, and they will have money to spend to supplement their young talent with vets after next season. Seeing a competitor make the right decisions is never a good thing.
uglyone - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#330968) #
"Why would I be envious of the Rangers? "

Why would you be jealous of the 1st place team who made the biggest trade deadline upgrades?

no reason.

makes sense to be more envious of selling to get a 22yr old with a sub-20k% in A ball.
Chuck - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#330969) #
Goins has been awful and only marginally supplanted by Travis

Huh? Travis is on a 4-5 WAR pace this season.

Chuck - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#330970) #
I doubt they regret the big contracts or selling off all sorts of good prospects over that time either, and I'd guess they'll happily do the same going forward.

They may not regret the past, but my hunch is the Steinbrenner pups are less inclined to spend money than their dad was, especially now that the core of players from their glory days is all gone. There is no one on the current roster that needs to be extended for expensive, sentimental reasons.

SK in NJ - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#330971) #
"Why would you be jealous of the 1st place team who made the biggest trade deadline upgrades?"


I just explained the reasoning right after the sentence you chose to quote, but quality trolling nonetheless.
uglyone - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#330972) #
http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/inside-baseball-with-jon-heyman/heyman-20-best-trades-last-two-seasons

3 jays moves make Heyman's list of top 20 trades of the last 2yrs.
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#330973) #
They may not regret the past, but my hunch is the Steinbrenner pups are less inclined to spend money than their dad was, especially now that the core of players from their glory days is all gone.

The CBA change, which tied revenue sharing to getting under the luxury tax, likely had more to do with it than a generationally different approach. The Yankees have been working steadily toward getting under the luxury tax threshold.
SK in NJ - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#330975) #
To go back to the "who could the Jays have gotten at the deadline" question, here are some OF/1B traded at the deadline...

Upton: 0.1 WAR, 58 wRC+
Reddick: -0.3 WAR, 47 wRC+
Bruce: -0.2 WAR, 65 wRC+
Beltran: -0.1 WAR, 107 wRC+
Kemp: -0.1 WAR, 94 wRC+
Pearce: 0.3 WAR, 112 wRC+

I wanted the Jays to get Pearce prior to them getting Upton, but no one has really been a difference maker. Lucroy seems like the best player traded (of all players not just 1B/OF), but the Jays were not getting him for multiple reasons (mentioned above).

The Jays not only had a very limited amount of positions they could upgrade based on the existing roster (it was basically just 1B/DH/OF depending on whether they wanted to DH Bautista), but also a limited amount of difference makers. There were no Price/Cespedes types other than Lucroy out there.
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#330978) #
They may not regret the past, but my hunch is the Steinbrenner pups are less inclined to spend money than their dad was, especially now that the core of players from their glory days is all gone.

The CBA change, which tied revenue sharing to getting under the luxury tax, likely had more to do with it than a generationally different approach. The Yankees have been working steadily toward getting under the luxury tax threshold.
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#330979) #
quality trolling nonetheless.

Then why get sucked in.

You mentioned yesterday that it had been a long time since you'd witnessed a September collapse, which got me thinking about the best of those. The two that stick out best in my mind are the '78 Red Sox, which was more of a prolonged demise where everyone outside of New England was cheering on the Yankees against the 1918's; and the trainwreck of '87, which can't really be described as a September collapse as much as a short, painful punch in the gut at the beginning of October.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#330980) #
the trainwreck of '87

Wasn't the Gordon Lightfoot song about that?
Chuck - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#330981) #
the '78 Red Sox, which was more of a prolonged demise where everyone outside of New England was cheering on the Yankees

Not where I lived. I didn't know anyone cheering on the Yankees. Fox Mulder summed up a lot of people's feelings about this particular race.

uglyone - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#330982) #
fangraphs is doing a series on mvp candidates, and it's Donaldson's turn: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-case-for-josh-donaldson-for-american-league-mvp/

ignoring the MVP argument, the stuff about the youtube comments on his batting video is pure gold.
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#330983) #
Wasn't the Gordon Lightfoot song about that?

I doubt I could find my '88 Abstract if I tried, but if I recall correctly that was how James described it. As something that defied explanation. It just happened. All at once. I remember there were injuries, and I don't want to look it up but if I recall it was Whitt and Fernandez, but mostly it just happened. 8 horrible games and we didn't know until the end, after Herndon, what the scope was.
Four Seamer - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#330984) #

As perhaps Garth Iorg's greatest fan (I went out dressed up as Iorg for Halloween in either '85 or '86}, I have never quite gotten over him making the final, miserable out of that awful season (and his career, as it turned out).

China fan - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#330985) #
"....The thing about being clutchy, though, is that it seems much less a repeatable skill than a byproduct of chance..."

That's an important point.  And the role of chance should never be under-estimated.  Just think of all the small variables that, even taken individually, can make a huge difference in a season.  Let's vary just one factor: the performance of Brett Cecil this season.  If he had performed as well as he did in the second half of 2015, the Jays would have added 6 wins to their win column, and subtracted 6 losses, and they'd be running away with the division title.  Or if Bautista had performed as well this season as he did last season -- again you could add several wins to the win column and subtract several losses from the loss column. 

I'm not saying that those results were unpredictable -- it could have been expected that Bautista and Cecil wouldn't perform as well as they did last season, but the amount of the decline was probably more than we could have reasonably expected.

In any event, if random chance and the decline of Bautista has reduced the "clutchiness" of the Jays lineup this year, that's enough to explain the difference between their current plight (2nd place and struggling to maintain a wild-card slot) and last season (comfortably winning the division). 

At the same time, Bauxites are absolutely right to conclude that the Jays offense isn't as "elite" as we thought it was.  The Jays still rise or fall, to a large extent, on the strength of their top 3 hitters:  Josh, Edwin and Jose.  When those three are in a slump, as they have been for a few games now, the Jays are going to lose ground in the playoff race.   The supporting lineup is adequate, the starting rotation is fine, the bullpen is good, but the Jays will usually slump when their top 3 hitters are slumping.  And that's what happened over the past few games.

It's true that Donaldson and Encarnacion, on aggregate, are having seasons as good as last year.  And, not surprisingly, the overall Jays record is almost as good as it was at this stage of last season too.  But even with the overall above-average lineup, a decline by Bautista and a decline in overall "clutchiness" is enough to explain the team's slight decline from last year, and its recent struggles too.
Magpie - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#330986) #
I actually figured the change in offense from last year to this was mostly a matter of looking at Bautista and Colabello. Last year, they combined for 1000 PAs of ass-kicking (140 OPS+) offense. This year - one such month from Bautista, followed by four months of injury-riddled Averageness. And nothing from Colabello at all, whom we've all forgotten. That's the only dramatic difference I see.
Magpie - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#330987) #
the '78 Red Sox, which was more of a prolonged demise where everyone outside of New England was cheering on the Yankees

True in my neighbourhood. The 1978 Red Sox were a remarkably self-satisfied bunch - they managed to make the Yankees look like scrappy underdogs. (Those were the legendary "25 guys, 25 cabs" Sox of yore.) They talked and acted like they were the 1927 Yankees. Their manager didn't fall for it, though, and in his paranoia he played and played his regulars until he had quite literally ground them into dust.

Speaking of Boston collapses, 2011 tends to get overlooked. They were in first place when September 1 dawned, and went 7-20 the rest of the way. The Yankees won the division and Tampa Bay, nine games back, overtook them by a single game to get the Wild Card.
scottt - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#330988) #
It's the nature of the lineup. They win with homers and they haven't been hitting them.

It's best to forget about it and go back to play .500 ball like they can.

Bautista's first at bat was interesting. He watched 4 fastballs to a 2-2 count and then hit a curveball into a small fly.
They've been really good at working the count this year, but when a ball out of the infield scores a run, it feels weird to watch the hitter ignore a first pitch strike down the middle. They play low odds high gains.

Donaldson wen 0 for 9 in NY. That probably explains a lot.

Kasi - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#330989) #
There is fairly good evidence that Saunders is unclutch. And that's not even counting this year's numbers. It's just been how his career has gone.

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/9/8/11873686/is-michael-saunders-actually-unclutch

In high leverage his strikeouts go way up and his power decreases.

And similarly I'm confused about the criticism of the deadline. Results wise we've done pretty well. Fit wise what we needed was an OF or a DH. There wasn't many of those out there and we got about the best of the options in not giving up much.

Maybe we should have gotten a top starting pitcher. Except we lost out on bidding for Hill and would not have been able to match what the Sox paid for Pomeranz (he cost a guy who would be our number one prospect). Also hard to criticize the starting pitching and needing someone to fill in when you compare us to the rest of the AL and even after the last two weeks the Jays starters still rank 1st in the AL in IP, ERA, WHIP and batting average against.

Most of the difference is yes Bautista and Colabello. However there is a fairly substantial loss in stats from EE, Martin, Pillar and Travis that is probably evened out with Tulo hitting better than what we had last year and Saunders performance. Which still leaves the big loss of Jose/Cola and situational hitting failures.
Four Seamer - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#330990) #

It's the nature of the lineup. They win with homers and they haven't been hitting them.

I think it was during one of the radio broadcasts this past weekend that it was noted that the Jays have won a grand total of 8 games this year in which they did not hit a homerun, a number which does not require any updating.  Obviously, that is to some degree correlated to the fact that they have a lot of home runs overall, but it does speak to the difficulty they have scoring enough runs to win (despite effective pitching) when they are not cashing runs through the longball. 

uglyone - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#330991) #
The jays are 4th in mlb and 2nd in AL in OBP.

the notion that they only win with homers is nonsense.
uglyone - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#330992) #
Cola's offense has been made up for by Saunders.
Chuck - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#330993) #
the Jays have won a grand total of 8 games this year in which they did not hit a homerun

When stats like this get mentioned, why are the never placed in context? How many games has the average team won without hitting a homerun? Maybe 8 is close to normal. Maybe it's not.

As for homeruns, the average AL team is on pace to hit 199 (up from 176 last year). Even in 2000, when teams averaged 5.3 runs per game -- 0.7 more than teams average now -- AL teams averaged just 192 homeruns. So homeruns are a huge part of most everyone's offense these days, not just Toronto's.

I'd love access to the data to see if if the current ratio of homeruns to runs is the highest it's ever been. Odds are it isn't, but I wouldn't be surprised if it were.

ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#330994) #
Tyler Austin walks off the Rays with a 2-out solo shot in the 9th. NYY is now only 2 games back of the WC, and 3 back of first WC (Toronto). with 4 games left vs. Toronto and 3 vs. the O's. Interesting times indeed.
vw_fan17 - Thursday, September 08 2016 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#330995) #
Interesting times indeed.

Interesting indeed - the 4th place Yankees (who are obviously behind 3 of the 4 teams in the AL East that aren't themselves), are in fact only behind 6 of the remaining 25 teams in all of MLB.

Or, to put it another way: if the Yankees win tomorrow, and the Tigers lose, the Yankees would be in SECOND place in every other division in baseball, except the AL East..
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 12:08 AM EDT (#330996) #
2015 wrc+ ----- 2016 wrc+ by batting order

1st: 94 --- 101
2nd: 159 --- 139
3rd: 145 --- 143

Top-3rd: -15

4th: 140 --- 132
5th: 95 --- 90
6th: 115 --- 125

Mid-3rd: -3

7th: 107 --- 50
8th: 117 --- 77
9th: 73 --- 56

Bot-3rd: -114

The top of the order is down a bit due to bautista, though not that much because no reyes/tulo/reveŕe were pretty bad in the leadoff slot last year, and tulo's improved has pushed everyone up.

The middle of the order is about the same, with saunders making up for cola.

The bottom of the order has gone from being the best in baseball last year to quite possibly the worst in baseball this year. No exaggeration. having two full slots posting a 50ish wrc+ is unbelievably bad. It's almost as if we've had 2 pitchers hitting every game.
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 12:21 AM EDT (#330997) #
I mean even having one 50ish wrc+ slot in the lineup is a horrendous black hole.

Having 2 is ridiculous.
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 12:34 AM EDT (#330998) #
slot comparison to mlb averages - no pitchers included:

Jays --- MLB

1st: 101 --- 104 (-3)
2nd: 139 -- 105 (+34)
3rd: 143 --- 120 (+23)

+54

4th: 132 --- 111 (+21)
5th: 90 ----- 104 (-14)
6th: 125 --- 96 (+29)

+36

7th: 51 ----- 85 (-34)
8th: 77 ----- 86 (-9)
9th: 62 ----- 77 (-15)

-58

the bottom of the lineup has completely sabotaged the offense. it hasn't just been bad, it's been fatally awful.
92-93 - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 02:07 AM EDT (#330999) #
"The CBA change, which tied revenue sharing to getting under the luxury tax, likely had more to do with it than a generationally different approach. The Yankees have been working steadily toward getting under the luxury tax threshold."

I know this was the narrative the media (and the Yankees themselves) pushed for a few years, but in reality it just never happened. The Yankees were over the luxury tax in 2016 by basically the same amount as they were in 2009. Cashman did an interview with Francesa after the trade deadline and Francesa asked him directly about whether or not getting under the luxury tax was a priority and he said no. I have heard him over the years been consistent on that; he's always maintained that getting under the luxury tax is a goal only if the Yankees can remain competitive, because missing the playoffs isn't really an option. I don't think people realize just how much of a role Steinbrenner Jr. has in running the actual ball club. Cashman understands that baseball instituted the luxury tax and changed the rules of draft + international spending to limit the advantage teams like the Yankees had, and he lamented the inability for ownership to suck up a losing season or two to restock the farm. I would suspect that signings like Ellsbury and McCann were borne out of mandates from ownership to spend money to compete, whereas Tanaka was more of a Cashman move, identifying top level talent and using the Yankees resources to bring him in.

The current 2017 Yankees project to an approximate 175-190m payroll, depending on which arb players are tendered contracts. Have Sanchez, Judge, Severino, Bird, etc. really shown enough that Hal will allow Cashman to take another year off in the FA market, or can we expect to see more Beltran/Kuroda/Headley roster-patching signings that will easily take them over the luxury tax in 2017? I certainly hope so, because I'd hate if they continued to stockpile young talent while getting under the tax so they can spend like drunken sailors on that tremendously talented upcoming FA class.
scottt - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 04:02 AM EDT (#331001) #
I'm not sure what OBP  has to do with homeruns. It's not like they have a huge number of RBI walks.

In the last game for example, they had 8 baserunners and they left 12 on bases.
Same as the Yankees. One flyball over the wall would have changed the game.

Where do they rank in hit into doubleplays?

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