We need some theme music, Alex.  Can you take Mavis Staples' Eyes on the Prize without trivializing it?  Nope.  Don't Stop Believing doesn't cut it.  I've got nothing.

For comparison .... Jays standing on September 12th morning in years they won the division or came close.
1985: 2 1/2 up, lost 1 1/2 to Detroit (16 1/2 back) but only 1/2 a game lost to NYY who were in 2nd
1987: tied for 1st with Detroit, lost 2 games to the (#&@ Tigers after that
1989: 2 games up, lost 4 to Boston (they were 10 back)
1990: 3 games back, gained 1 game on leader but only 500 after
1991: 4 games up, 4 behind Milwaukee after (they were 12 back on Sept 12th)
1992: 3 games up, 2 behind Milwaukee after (they were 6 back on Sept 12th)
1993: 1 game up, 4 games up on all others after
2015: 2 1/2 up, tied for best in east after
2016: 2 games back, unknown what happens next.

So if the Jays win the east this would be the first time they made a comeback from behind at this point of the season. Every other time they won the East they were leading by now by at least a game. Time for some Jays all-time history to be made eh? Those 3 season ending series vs NYY then Baltimore in Toronto followed 3 final games in Boston should be exciting. Given their biggest winning streak is 7 this year in July it is time for the Jays to reel off a 10 gamer I'd say :)

How about "shakin all over" or " 19th nervous breakdown"

Sounds like Danny Valencia is going to be released by the As before the end of the year.

So obviously there is something wrong with this dude.

That being said, would his bat help us down the stretch?

Donaldson not in the lineup tonight.  Wonder if this is out of deference to an injury (which may explain his play of late) or is simply an effort to give him a breather (because of his play of late).  Either way, sitting down the league's MVP in the middle of the stretch drive isn't ideal.

His bat would absolutely help down the stretch. The team doesn't hit LHP nearly well enough for a lineup that is basically entirely right-handed, and Valencia mashes lefties year in and year out.

Hoping some photo karma can work here. Here's a look back to the last time the Jays hosted the Rays in September. A series that went rather well!

Valencia is disliked by other players and managers. That was the main reason the Jays released him in the first place and why the A's are letting him go now. He won't be back.

Donaldson has a very good line against Odorizzi.  Gibbons says that he's banged up a bit, and I am pretty sure that he would be in if he were 100%. Saunders bats second.  We'll see if the move up the order helps him.  Youneverknow.

 

Quiet in here.

Blue Jays doing it the hard way, every game.

Wonder if it is time for the Jays to stop worrying about pitch counts and just do times through the order. 2 times the limit for most pitchers, but a 3rd allowed for Happ and Sanchez if he is going good. Would have to do some real work to figure out if the 3rd time is the killer unless someone can find a quick spot for that data on BR or FG or wherever.

hard to know what to make of that start.

Third time is always worse for any starter. However 6+ innings with 2 runs on three hits and one walk is a start I'll be happy with any time.

A quick and nasty data table, it's just OPS for times through the order.

Estrada .683 / .644 / .672
Sanchez .570 / .636 / .726
Dickey  .914 / .709 / .743
Happ    .628 / .633 / .791
Stroman .692 / .606 / .895
Liriano .652 / .777 /1.081

As you can see, third time through Estrada and Dickey hold their own (Dickey gets murdered first time through), while Stroman and (especially) Liriano get lit up.

Zeke!

I believe that's the team's first PH homer this season.

The Rays. Never easy.

man this team is wound tight. they gotta relax.

huge win obviously.

If that Souza ball had gone out, I would've gone to the backyard, dug a hole, and sat there until spring.

With that home run Carrera deserves one start over Upton. Just to see if he can provide a spark, and for meritocratic reasons of course.

Baltimore, NYY, Houston, KC all losing. This is good. Until the Jays get untracked, they need all the help they can get.

Liriano was good. He was great through six, and then ran into some trouble 3rd time through the order. Obviously the two home runs were not good, but 6.1 IP/2 R/1 BB/6 K is fine and should be enough to win most nights. It's a broken record to say the Jays offense has been bad, but they never seem to hit Odorizzi (or any SP who wears a Rays uniform) so not too surprising, I guess. A win is a win.

Looks like the O's and Yankees are going to lose tonight, while the Tigers are leading heading in the 8th. The Tigers have the Twins and Braves for 50% of their remaining games, including tonight, so I'm not expecting them to lose much over the next 3 weeks. The Wild Card is going to come down to the Tigers and one of the East teams in all likelyhood.

From the first base side, that looked like vintage Liriano, with serious fastball depth at times and numerous swinging strikes on sliders from RH and LH alike. He wasn't even walking guys. Whether the two homers were the product of lucky swings on two mistakes or flaws in his game he was getting away with earlier, I'm not sure. Longoria's was almost as cheap as Carrera's.

Saunders had a nice game in the field and at the plate. The Rays were playing him very deep for some reason.

Do we have an official date for when Osuna started to use the hesitation stretch delivery?

Mood music for today was inspirational. For tomorrow it's pugnacious.

Whether the two homers were the product of lucky swings on two mistakes

Miller hit a meatball about 900 feet. Weren't nothin' lucky about that swing!

Do we have an official date for when Osuna started to use the hesitation stretch delivery?

Does it not coincide with Benoit's arrival? A little old-timer, Tiantish dipsy-doodle?

Yep. Watched it back. Hanging 1-0 slider after he'd thrown a fastball at eye level. Crushed. He gave Kiermaier and Miller one of those each in the fourth, too, and got away with them. His worst mistakes were to the lefties, oddly. They ended up 1-for-6 against him. Longoria's homer looked like a mistake changeup down and in, in a tough spot to boot, perfectly illustrating why you don't see too many changeups down and in. A weak homer, but they all count.

He really was excellent, especially in the first three innings. What are you supposed to do with these starting pitchers? So many variables - Estrada's mysterious injury status, Sanchez's blisters, Sanchez's workload, Dickey's accoutrements, Liriano's volatility, Liriano's splits, and so on. And 9 games in the next 9 days.

Osuna, I'm curious because Dickerson's single in the ninth was off a fastball out of the hesitation delivery, and he squared it up perfectly. It looked like he knew the heat was coming. Has Osuna ever thrown a changeup out of that delivery? If not, his next five hesitation pitches all have to be offspeed, right?

Has Osuna ever thrown a changeup out of that delivery?

That's an excellent question. From my memory, no, but others may remember differently. If so, this tactic serves less as a disruption than it does an obvious tell, so may require reconsideration. Dickerson wasn't fooled one tiny little bit.

I don't know whether John Gibbons was smart or just lucky last night, but everything worked out for him:

- He replaced Josh Donaldson with Darwin Barney, who promptly gave up an error in a key situation. However, the Jays got out of the inning without damage.

- He pulled Liriano in the seventh, despite his having thrown only 72 pitches. He trusted that the bullpen could hold the line, and it did.

- He sent Ezequiel Carrera up as a pinch-hitter, despite the fact that he hasn't hit at all after the all-star break (he's now at .117 after today). Carrera, of course, homered on the first pitch.

- The lucky part was that Souza's final fly ball was a foot or two shy of going over the fence.

What a pennant race. The Blue Jays are basically one David Ortiz home run out of first place.

Luck, part 2.  Carrera's home run was hit nowhere near as hard as Smoak's ball in New York.  We'll call it square now.

I am partial towards luck 100% of the time.

Mood music for today was inspirational. For tomorrow it's pugnacious.

Loved the inspirational...can I suggest that we hold off on the pugnacious until the final series against the Red Sox (Fight the Power will work then)? You could go with a message of support.

Osuna has a couple of different hesitation moves- timing him is probably difficult even if you know a fastball is coming.  Still it's probably better if used a little more sparingly. 

He really was excellent, especially in the first three innings. What are you supposed to do with these starting pitchers? So many variables - Estrada's mysterious injury status, Sanchez's blisters, Sanchez's workload, Dickey's accoutrements, Liriano's volatility, Liriano's splits, and so on. And 9 games in the next 9 days.

They are planning on giving Sanchez his next start on September 21.  That seems reasonable.  Until then, the only question in my mind is what to do with Estrada.  The logical alternative is giving a start to Feldman.  Feldman is one of those rare pitchers who has thrown better out of the rotation than out of the bullpen over his career.  I know that he hasn't been great (and he certainly hasn't been lucky) since his arrival in Toronto, but I'd rather have Feldman on the hill than an unhealthy Estrada.  Feldman is set up to go on Wednesday.  If you skip a start for Estrada, maybe he can come back on the 19th.  If you are going to start Estrada on Wednesday, it makes sense to have somebody ready to go 3 or 4 innings (Feldman?) after him rather than a string of relievers as occurred on Friday night.

Remaining schedule, and possible rotation:

09/13: TBR Stroman (4 days rest)
09/14: TBR Estrada (4)
09/15: LAA Happ (4)
09/16: LAA Sanchez (4)
09/17: LAA Liriano (4)
09/18: LAA Stroman (4)
09/19: SEA Estrada (4)
09/20: SEA Happ (4)
09/21: SEA Sanchez (4)
09/22: OFF
09/23: NYY Stroman (4)
09/24: NYY Estrada (4)
09/25: NYY Happ (4)
09/26: NYY Sanchez (4)
09/27: BAL Liriano (9)
09/28: BAL Stroman (4)
09/29: BAL Estrada (4)
09/30: BOS Happ (4)
10/01: BOS Sanchez (4)
10/02: BOS Liriano (4)


Interesting. The only remaining off day falls on Liriano's regular rest, so we could just skip him entirely. And keep everyone on regular rest the rest of the way. Liriano would be scheduled for the potentially crucial final game of the year, but then again we could just turn that into a bullpen game which is never a bad idea in an elimination game.

Or we could not skip him, give everyone an extra day of rest, and not have Liriano scheduled for a potentially crucial final game of the season. Then again, the game could be a meaningless one, too.

oh I missed the tidbit that Dickey is replacing Sanchez next start.

uglyone's rotation

Could R. A. Dickey pitch again as an SP ?

Hitters are more valuable than pitchers. They have a longer shelf life and usually get injured less. Also typically less volatile. Even if Betts and Sanchez were even in WAR I'd rather have Betts.

With Triple-A and Double-A seasons are finished or nearly finished, can this team or any team bring in unused parts from other organizations for any potential callup for September and October before the postseason starts ?

My guess, assuming Sanchez's next start is 9/21 at Seattle:

2 vs TBR: Stroman, Estrada
4 at LAA: Happ, Dickey, Liriano, Stroman
3 at SEA: Estrada, Happ, Sanchez
Day off
4 vs NYY: Liriano, Stroman, Estrada, Happ
3 vs BAL: Sanchez, Liriano, Stroman
3 at BOS: Estrada, Happ, Sanchez

This rotation puts Sanchez's potential last regular season start in the final game at Boston. If that game is meaningless, and the Jays happen to win a WC spot, then they can start Dickey in the final Boston game, and go with Sanchez in the WC game (though in this scenario a WC game on Tuesday after the regular season would be Stroman's regular turn, so depends who they prefer going with). If something terrible happens and the last game is meaningless AND the Jays are not one of the WC teams, then start Dickey in that case too. No sense in giving Sanchez an unnecessary start.

I wouldn't want to be lining up Liriano for the final game of the season and then, more importantly, Stroman for a division tiebreaker/wild card. As we stand today, Happ or Sanchez need to start that game.

I think that it depends.  It might be that the last game of the season matters, and that there is the potential for a wild card game too.  If that is the case, I think that they'll flip Stroman and Liriano after the day off on the 22nd, so they can have Sanchez and Stroman ready to go for the last game of the regular season and the wild card game.  And of course, Estrada's health is a very big wild card. 

Those points make sense - but i always have the fear that putting off your best SP to set them up for later supposedly more important games can be a little too cute by half.

I agree, uglyone, but SK's version keeps the rotation in its current order and merely subs in Dickey for Sanchez, while lining up the BOS series + WC game well. If they're going to get creative and switch things up, there needs to be very clear benefits.

what are the odds the last game of the year is a decider, i wonder?

any way to figure that out?

This is a great question that would have been worthy of a Martin Gardner column. Before you could even begin to tackle it you would need to know what you wanted decided. The division? The Wild Card? Either? If you are talking about either then it is tough to envision a circumstance in which the final game between the currently division-leading Red Sox and Wildcard occupying Jays doesn't impact someone's admission into the playoffs.

any way to figure that out?

Create a bunch of assumptions on the probabilities of who will each of the remaining MLB games. And then Monte Carlo simulations. The latter is fairly trivial. The former, not so much.

any way to figure that out?

I think a more relevant question is actually which of those final three games has the highest likelihood of being the most important. My guess is that the first game of the final series with Boston has a very high probability of being important and that the games that follow also have a high probability but to a lesser degree as we move forward in the series.  I want our best guy playing game 1.

is there an easier way to hack it?

maybe figure out how many times in the last decade the last game of the season has mattered?

but then we have to figure in that this division has one of the tightest september standings of all time, so there's that.

Your sample size will be small, because it starts with the addition of the second wild card. Even home field between the two wild cards is important.

I don't think you could hack it by looking at prior years, because a lot turns on how many teams are in contention for a playoff spot. Right now there are 10 teams within 4 games of a playoff spot (leaving only 5 AL teams that have no real chance). That will produce far fewer moot scenarios than in years where there are only 7 or 8 contenders.

Assume this is 2011, only worse. The last day will be consequential. After Boston's 81 wins, seven teams have between 74 and 79 wins (79, 78, 77, 76, 76, 75, 74).

What are the odds that most everything will NOT be decided on the last day?

I am hoping for a multi-car pileup, just for the freak factor. I want to see tiebreakers to get into play-ins and tiebreakers to decide divisions. I want to see a week of tiebreakers before the season is even settled. I want to see teams with 165 regular season games. I want this messed up like Trump's hair in a windstorm.

Two wild card teams to play a single game play-in? Bah!

Here are some questions.  Assume that every remaining game is a coin-flip.  What are the odds that 3 AL East teams have the same won-loss record at the end of the season and the most wins in the division?  What about 4 teams doing that?  The Red Sox have 6 games left with the Yankees, so the latter question isn't completely remote. 

Donaldson out again with an injured hip.  Barney in.  Carrera in right-field and Upton in left-field tonight.  Riding the lucky hand, I guess.

Funereal silence around here.

Well offense didn't show up again and good Stroman seems to be missing again. Then again everyone is a bit less excited when Donaldson isn't playing.

Didn't really expect Donaldson to miss a second game. That's a little concerning.

Stroman hasn't been good tonight, but the real problem, as usual lately, is the offense. A 3 run deficit against a bad team looks insurmountable with the way the bats have been going.

Yay Martin we have a chance. :)

I liked Biagini better when he didn't give up home runs.

Biagini might finally be hitting the wall. This is his first major league season and his first as a reliever.

I was at a game a few weeks ago and Biagini warmed up in the bottom of an inning. He had more than enough time to get ready. The Jays starter got out of trouble but was at his limit. Biagaini continued to throw while the Jays batted and then came into the game in the top of the next inning. Biagini was throwing non stop for around 20 - 30 minutes. I dont know if this is typical but if it is he is putting a lot of work into his arm.

I think this just isn't our year, guys...

Chasing high fastballs is killing the Jays of late.

Since the start of this slide, coming into tonight, the Jays have been outscored 39-60 (3-7 record). In their 3 wins, they outscored their opponents 11-7. They are not losing by fluke and their wins are by the smallest of margins. They are being straight up outplayed. This offense has been insufferable in the past 10, now 11, games. Even in the recent matching 3-2 wins on Saturday and yesterday, you kind of got the sense that they escaped with wins.

It's been a while since we have seen a September collapse, but if this isn't one, then I'm not sure what it is. This is just bad baseball all the way around and time is starting to slip away. Baltimore has an easier schedule than the Jays down the stretch, and Detroit has a cake walk (9 more against the Twins and Braves, but losing tonight). The Yankees are still there, too. The Wild Card isn't a fallback option. It may not be an option at all if they don't turn things around in a hurry.

Yep. The Jays haven't won a game convincingly since August.

Loup comes in and throws one to the backstop, then hits a guy. The wheels have come off.

Between Chavez and Feldman, it seems the swing man role for the Jays is where serviceable pitchers go to die.

Fully expect the Jays to score 3 runs in the ninth, and load the bases with no outs before hitting into a triple play.

...Or to just go down quietly 1-2-3.

Baltimore is up 5-3 in the 8th.

Well that was a pretty pathetic effort, start to finish.

I'm not sure why Gibbons would ever use Loup in anything but a mop-up role.

As for the offense, my guess is that some players are more hurt than they're letting on. I've long believed in a more proactive approach to keeping players healthy and productive (especially Jays players, who play on turf, and some of whom are older players), in part by building in more rest during the year. Hard-charging players like Donaldson and Pillar just aren't built to play season after season of 150+ full games, the "gut it out" ethos in baseball notwithstanding.

The other problem is that the bottom of the order has been pretty bad. And, of course, some of the better players are slumping.

this ain't fun at all.

come back soon and awesome please, josh.

Wonder if they consider closing the dome to make it play as more of a hitters' park. Because it's just so goshdarn cold this month.

Would be a good idea, if the Jays weren't also averaging 6 runs allowed/game this month.

Trailing 2-1 late last night, the Rangers rallied for 2 runs to win 3-2.  They are now 33-10 in one-run games.  The last team to do something like this was the 2012 Orioles who went 29-9 in one-run games, and were essentially a .500 team at other times. In 2013, they added Chris Davis (who went nuts) and Manny Machado, became a better team, but went 20-31 in one-run games to end up at 85 wins.  It's not all luck, but luck is definitely the biggest part of it. 

In the good news department, Brett Cecil seems to have recovered his mojo.  Gibbons used him in the full-inning role yesterday and that is a good thing. 

Quick quiz: among Blue Jay hitters with more than 10 PAs, who has the lowest K rate?  No peeking.

Stroman had no command last night, and I don't say that because he walked 4 guys. It was incredibly frustrating watching him get beat 3 straight times after getting ahead 0-2, and it feels like that's been happening too often this year to Jays pitchers. I would love to know the content of the brief conversation Stroman and Martin had before Stroman served up a HR to the worst player in baseball who got released by the San Diego Padres.

I watched the pitch that Ramirez hit.  I don't think Stroman missed the target by much.  It was (I think) intended to be off the plate inside to set up a 1-2 two-seamer away for Ramirez to roll over on.  Stroman appeared to miss by a few inches, and hit the plate low and inside on the corner.  Ramirez golfed it over the wall in left.  The conventional thing is to go up and in, but I don't think that what was intended from Martin's set up.

What bothers me most about the pitch was not the location but the lack of movement.  It's not a great location for an 0-2 pitch, but the lack of movement  (and in particular downward plane) makes it quite hittable. 

Quick quiz: among Blue Jay hitters with more than 10 PAs, who has the lowest K rate?  No peeking.

Without peeking...I'd guess Pillar or Barney. Or maybe even Thole.

On the first pitch of the AB Stroman came down and far in and Ramirez fouled it off, it was a very good pitch. On the 0-1 Stroman threw a floating cutter up and in that Ramirez took a terrible swing on, but then Stroman tried coming down and in again and left it right over the inner third. The location was absolutely horrendous.

I have a feeling Martin wanted to double up on the high and tight pitch, or use something offspeed down and away.

The Jays have cancelled the annual Howard Webster awards for the top minor leaguer on each team. Seems odd given that they've been giving the awards for thirty years, but perhaps the new regime has something else in mind.

Cluthclings posted their guesses for the could've been winners, a pretty fair list IMO.


Buffalo - Jesus Montero
New Hampshire - Rowdy Tellez
Dunedin - Ryan McBroom
Lansing - Ryan Borucki
Vancouver - Joshua Palacios
Bluefield - Bradley Jones
GCL Blue Jays - Bo Bichette
DSL Blue Jays - Yorman Rodriguez

Donaldson out again today.

Congratulations, bluejayway.  Pillar narrowly over Barney.   The character of the offence as a whole is classic old player's skills- power, walks, lots of strikeouts, not much speed, lots of GIDPs.  I wonder if teams characterized by this skill set tend to wear down as the season goes on.  You would think that the correlation with age would lead to this tendency.

I have a feeling Martin wanted to double up on the high and tight pitch, or use something offspeed down and away.

You can watch the pitch on mlb.com.  Martin sets up on the inside corner with his glove slightly below the knees and pointed down.  On sober second thought, I don't think that Stroman missed inside but too high.  The pitch was intended to be on the plate down and in and diving.  If you mean that Martin wanted a different approach in their discussion before the pitch and Stroman disagreed, you may very well be right.  That wouldn't be a command issue though but a pitch selection issue and if you are saying that Stroman should be listening carefully to Martin's advice, I'll heartily second that. 

Carrera gets the start for Upton against a RHP.  As everyone here is likely aware, he has significant reverse splits in his career.  Even if you regress them heavily, he's a replacement level player both ways.  Gibbons has taken a conservative approach to his outfield problem.  It isn't working well.  The options aren't ideal- Dalton Pompey had quite a few struggles in Buffalo- but replacement level is a low bar to hurdle.   

Are they sitting Bautista? The Jays play .634 ball when he's not in the lineup. It's time to stop pretending he adds any value to a winning ballclub.

Navarro's catching too.  It's a day game after a night game, but with Dickey scheduled to pitch in Anaheim, I wouldn't have done that. 

Jays in one-run games

2011 29-28 (81-81 overall)
2012 15-25 (73-89)
2013 20-29 (74-88)
2014 15-20 (83-79)
2015 15-28 (93-69)
2016 17-23 (79-65)

It's pretty frustrating that seemingly every team has at least one year where they put up a big record in one-run games but the Jays suck at it every single year. Is it John Gibbons? Under Farrell, their record in one-run games was closer to their overall record.

That looks like a lineup from an exhibition game in late March.  Shouldn't have any trouble getting to the airport in time after this one. 

King Ryan, Gibbons' record in one-run games over his 8 year managerial career would be extremely unlikely to occur due to random chance alone.  This does not necessarily mean that he costs the club wins every year.  The way he manages may incline the club to one or two more blowouts wins a year and one or two more one-run losses.    Gibbons has had a season with a good record in one-run games.  Most of the variance, season-by-season, is almost surely due to luck. 

It'd be great if Navarro wasn't hitting WORSE than Thole. Jesus.

Welcome to the Black Parade...

If you need a discouraging article about Marco Estrada, here it is.

Gibbons has had a season with a good record in one-run games. Most of the variance, season-by-season, is almost surely due to luck.

Could the Jays not just employ a manager with better "luck" though?

My guess is that they're resting Donaldson now so that he'll be extra ready when we have to face our actual competition in the last two weeks of the season. Hopefully it works out.

I'm fine with Carrera over Upton. Carrera at least offers a different looks vs Upton. He's a lefty, he can bunt, and he doesn't strike out nearly as much. It's worth a shot at least.

On a related note, I wonder if the offense is hurt partially by the fact that a lot of the hitters are too similar. It's very right handed, that much is obvious. But there's also a lot of guy who strike out a lot, or are just slow. These guys tend to be very streaky, and it'd be nice to have someone more consistent / "recession-proof". Ie: someone with speed and a higher OBP. In that regard I wonder if Upton was really that good of a pickup. He's just another streaky right handed who strikes out a tonne and doesn't get on base at a great clip.

Also, I have no confidence in Saunders anymore to the point where I think he's sinking the team. He hasn't hit since the all-star break, is a slow and a constant GIDP candidate, and has crappy defense. I'm not a big Pompey fan (I still like him as a prospect, but not a current major leaguer) but I'd rather see him out there than Saunders at this point. I know he had a great first half, but I ask what has he done for us lately?

Donaldson is having an MRI today.  I don't think he's just being rested (although hopefully the test will be clear and rest is all that is needed to get him back in the lineup). 

Gibbons has had a season with a good record in one-run games. Most of the variance, season-by-season, is almost surely due to luck.

I still contend that some of this year's record in one-run games is related to the bullpen. The better your bullpen is, the more likely it is that you will have one-run wins, or that two- or three-run leads will become one-run wins instead of losses.

Here's the Jays' record in one-run games, divided into three segments (I counted them myself on Baseball Reference, so there might be the odd error):

One-run games before Grilli arrived: 5-10
After Grilli, and before Benoit: 4-8
Since Benoit's arrival: 7-5

The sample size is small, but I think there is a significant difference here.

mri for donaldson. hip not responding to treatment.

yikes.

Navarro, Carrera, Pillar, and Goins hitting in the final four spots today.

I hope Estrada is on his game.

5 straight Ks to start from Estrada - looks like he knows he needs to pitch a shutout, and that to do so he'll have to use his outfield defence as sparingly as possible.  I approve this approach!

does it even matter who's at the bottom of the lineup?

2nd half wrc+:

Goins 99
Smoak 76
Saunders 75
Pillar 66
Barney 57
Upton 53
Navarro 41
Thole 34
Carrera -5

we should start using liriano as a pinch hitter. no joke.

2nd half wrc+ for the top half of the lineup

Martin 138
En'cion 135
Donaldson 125
Travis 124
Tulo 118
Bautista 101

we really cannot lose this game.

They've been outscored so far, so at this pace, they can easily lose this game.

Unfortunately, the game was probably over the moment Estrada gave up 2 runs.

Someday we and they will live as one. 

They can lose this one, they just have to actually play well in the remaining games. I'm not feeling too confident in that at this point, especially if Donaldson's hurt.

They can lose any game, just like any other team. It would actually be really great if they could at least take two of three against the 20 games under .500 teams, though.

This team screams "pretender". I don't see how they even make it to a wild card playoff at this point. Close wins, blowout losses? Not exactly confidence-inspiring. Prove me wrong, Bautista-led Blue Jays!

I love the optimism of Tabler. "All they need is a spark. One big hit and the rest will come." A big hit like Tulo's grand slam the other night? Like Martin's 2 run shot yesterday? Like Travis's huge hit the other game?

They've had a lot of "sparks" but nothing catches.

Lineup isn't as strong as the top as last year and Smoak has gone down a bit (although he was only part time anyway) and Revere had better numbers than our third OF this year but the two main issues are Bautista being much worse, Pillar being substantially worse and the biggest one is no Colabello. His numbers might have been unsustainable and driven by babip, but they mattered on the field and losing that hurt badly.

Oops three issues I meant.

that's pretty funny, really.

Maybe not such a great idea using all these Bisons pitchers in September.

Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo

Good time for a road trip, get away from the funereal atmosphere in the Dome these days.

This is really something else.

Starters can't make it to the sixth. Offense has been the worst in baseball. Bullpen has imploded. They've made a ton of defensive mistakes. And, to top it off, they've had basically no luck.

starting to get embarassing now.

time for a players only meeting?

This team is disgraceful. They straight-up suck. They suck-diddley-uck.

If Donaldson has to miss more time, then I'm pretty confident that the Jays will not make the playoffs. They pretty much need him to come back and play like an MVP down the stretch to have a shot, and his injury seems more serious than they are letting on.

The Jays were 19 games over .500 and first place on September 1. What the hell happened?

Bautista came back from the DL. That's what happened.

6-1 and 6 outs. This year, unlike last, I feel I can safely close gameday and not miss anything of interest.

9 outs still, chris.

so parker you think Bautista playing over saunders/smoak/carrera is why we're losing?

Numbers don't lie, ugly. You know that.

.634 without Bautista. .514 with Joey "Bats", before the Tampa series.

APR: 4.00rpg, 4.08rapg, -0.08rdpg
MAY: 4.31rpg, 3.97rapg, +0.34rdpg
JUN: 5.85rpg, 4.85rapg, +1.00rdpg
JUL: 5.63rpg, 3.71rapg, +1.92rdpg
AUG: 4.82rpg, 3.93rapg, +0.89rdpg

SEP: 3.23rpg, 6.00rapg, -2.77rdpg

I believe you can find these numbers in the dictionary, under the word "choke".

Jays have hired as their new VP of baseball ops.....

....BEN CHERINGTON.

lmao.

Oh. No. No no no.

Jesus. Maybe while they're at it, they could hire Dave Stewart and A.J. Preller.

everything that has happened in this org since we made the playoffs for the first time in decades has literally been my nightmare.

Good time for a road trip

What is a baseball understatement, Alex?

They said they're hiring him for player development, which is something he did well with Boston.

I know he signed Panda and Ramirez, but didn't Cherrington also trade and sign for Porcello, draft Espinoza, JBJ, Bogaerts, Betts and the rest of their highly regarded young prospects? I honestly don't know, but if he did then giddy up.

And AJ Preller turned the Rangers scouting around before going to San Diego.

Cherrington. Is fine. He was an executive for the Red Sox for ten years and was very highly thought of. He had awful last year as a GM but that's hardly sums up his entire career which was mostly successful. I am sure he is respected in baseball circles. Some people want to be outraged by everything.

SEP: 3.23rpg, 6.00rapg, -2.77rdpg

Typo - that should have read 3.73 rpg. And after today the last line reads 3.50 rpg, 6.17 rapg, -2.67 rdpg. The hitters are taking all the heat, but I don't think anybody wins when you allow six runs a game.

"Some people want to be outraged by everything."


It's because SHA-PIE-RO is ruining this great organization.

Or something along those lines.

sorry. i won't make a big deal of it, but signing cherington is almost as if shapiro has a personal grudge against me. it's just funny.

i hope to god he was responsible for the newest crop of red sox kids drafted while he was gm, because the red sox drafts when he was actually one of the guys in charge of scouting were, iirc, a bit of a dead zone between the current great crop of kids and the last great lester/pedroia/ellsbury group 10-15yrs ago.

The Jays have been outscored 74-42 in their last 12 games (3-9).

I can't think of a single positive this month. This team is winning games by sheer luck (+4 in those 3 wins) and losing games for the most part convincingly. Just awful, awful baseball. Hard to watch.

Magpie I've got 43 runs in 13 gms for 3.31 in september so far.

and now 80 runs allowed for 6.15 per game against.

oh i see. I had no idea fangraphs kept its current monthly split up to date in real time. cool.

I was adding today's score to their sept split but it was already there.

I've got 43 runs in 13 gms

Don't know why! They've now played 12 games in September, scored 42 runs and allowed 74.

Lousy either way, of course.

Just arrived having remembered it was an afternoon game. Just leaving now that I see the results.

It is remarkable how quickly and efficiently this team has morphed from high probability division winner to worst team in baseball. This can't go on ALL month, can it? Is this penance for mocking Red Sox implosions of yesteryear?

Not sure how comfortable I feel about Mr. Cherington's arrival. Sandoval and Hanley are on his resume. Crawford too?

I have never mocked Red Sox implosions of yesteryear.  I remember 1987 all too well.  When did the Yankees last implode? 

I have never mocked Red Sox implosions of yesteryear

Magpie was a little too self-satisfied for the deities that mete out baseball justice.

I should add that exhibit A in my "j'accuse" aimed at Magpie is the fact that we had to stare at Bucky Dent's big fat head for three straight days.

Hm. Must've been giving three outs as gimmes.

Either way, I didn't miss anything and don't expect to miss much by not intending to stay up for west coast games.

(This is a plea for the baseball gods to take pity.)

deities that mete out baseball justice

A nastier bunch of people you could not find, spending their days hovering over gallows and such. 

I have to give a thumbs up to the Ben Cherington hiring - a highly regarded baseball development guy (he's not going to be signing FA) & he's previously worked with Shapiro.

"I should add that exhibit A in my "j'accuse" aimed at Magpie is the fact that we had to stare at Bucky Dent's big fat head for three straight days."

We enjoyed that!

Also, I pray Shapiro doesn't have a personal grudge against ugly.

And I ain't the prayin' type.

If you didn't see the Kiermaier homer, check it out.  It wasn't a bad pitch at all by Estrada- it was another pitch down golfed just out of the park. 

Desperate times call for desperate measures - if Donaldson is out, I wonder if the Jays would consider "clubhouse problem child" Danny Valencia - he probably could be acquired for cash considerations.

How many problem children does the team need, though?

Maybe they should try to get Kawasawki for the next three weeks.

Cherrington is exactly what we needed. Something else to talk about.

I'm not sure about Valencia, but maybe some guy who could pitch the 6th inning every other day?

On the morning of 9/1, the Jays were 19 games over .500 and first place after having taken 2/3 from the Orioles in Baltimore.

Since then, they have gone 3-9. In that span (not counting today's game since Fangraphs hasn't updated it yet), here is how the stars have done during this recent bad stretch:

Donaldson: 49 wRC+, -0.1 WAR
Bautista: 106 wRC+, 0.1 WAR
Encarnacion: 107 wRC+, 0.1 WAR
Martin: 77 wRC+, 0.0 WAR
Tulo: 130 wRC+, 0.3 WAR

Saunders: 37 wRC+, -0.2 WAR
Travis: 131 wRC+, 0.4 WAR
Pillar: 65 wRC+, 0.1 WAR
Upton: 78 wRC+, 0.1 WAR


Tulo has been playing very well, but the other four have been average or poor during this recent stretch. Saunders has been abysmal during this stretch as well.

As has been the case all season, the Jays will live or die with the star players. It's not a coincidence that four of the five have collectively hit a wall (Donaldson in particular...but at least he has an excuse) and the team has nose dived since.

It's getting to the point where it's wildcard or bust. Probably better for Baltimore to lose tonight than Boston.

You'd rather talk about what pitcher we'd use in a sudden death game?

Anyone but Dickey?

This has all the marks of a clean-house-collapse.  Nobody will be exempt. No body. (Lucky we have Smoak and Upton and Liriano safely locked up for next season; but they could still be dealt. [bitter sarcasm font in use])  Gibby will be first to go, of course, because it’s obviously all his fault:  he can’t hit a lick, among other things.  There’s a long line after him.  What a sad end for a really promising, once-enjoyable team.  Baseball.  Damn baseball. 

I hope I’ve recovered some perspective tomorrow, but that’s how I feel today.

If it's the Mariners, Liriano might be my third choice.

Once the current "elite" are gone, and Gibbons is rightly sent packing back to his Double-A whatever it was he did then, the organization can develop from the core of actual baseball players leading the clubhouse. Smoak is going to be back, for some reason, but the rest of the team is going to be comprised of solid players who aren't little me-first douchebag clubhouse cancers, and whoever else is left over.

I can live with that.

The Jays actually might be a BETTER team next year, even if they don't add Votto.

Gibbons will definitely be gone after this season, IMO. He was probably only kept because the roster was basically an extension of the 2015 team with a one year window remaining, so it was easier to just go with continuity rather than have someone else manage AA/Gibby's roster for one season. After this season though, all bets are off. It will be a much different team one way or another, and Shapiro/Atkins will probably want more of their fingerprints on it from a coaching standpoint.

I don't expect a rebuild after 3+ million fan attendance for the season. Not only for PR/$ reasons, but because other than Donaldson, which vets could they possibly trade and get worthwhile value back for? Happ, maybe. Martin and Tulo make a lot of money and are in their 30's, so not sure how many teams would take their contract plus give up top prospects for them. If you trade them for marginal returns and don't have internal replacements to take over, then you're better off just keeping them until a situation presents itself where trading them is required. Urena, McGuire, etc, are likely more than a year away, assuming they pan out.

The Jays might be better off just trying for short-term improvements while still keeping an eye towards the future (ex. acquiring Liriano + two top 100 prospects in the same deal). That will be tough with a bad free agent market, but maybe there will be a bargain out there somewhere.

I don't know how we went from discussing playoff rosters two weeks ago to wondering what type of house cleaning will take place after the season, but I guess that's what bad baseball does. The past 2 weeks have zapped all the optimism I had for this season.

Parker, I don't know if you're being serious or not but it seems to me that Encarnacion is the only "elite" player thats leaving not counting possible trades. Is he the cancer you are referring to and if so, what could possibly lead you to that conclusion?

Encarnacion is the elite player gone after 2016. Can we agree on that?

As for "elite" players, the team needs to rid itself of Jose Bautista. He thinks he's elite, but he's actually replacement-level. Can we agree on that? If we can't, we should take a look at how well the rest of the team performs when he isn't in the lineup. Then we should look at how well the team performs when he IS in the lineup.

Yes, IMO Edwin is the only elite player leaving. Jose was one but not any more. Don't know if he's seen as a problem but I'm not sure he will be worth what he'll get paid next year. Age is kind to no one..... except Ortiz, Bonds and a very few others I guess.

No, it's nonsense to suggest that Bautista is a cancer, or the misogynist language you used in your other post. He probably won't be back, and it's been a down payment year, but you're attributing behaviour to he and others that just hasn't been demonstrated.

The Jays are by no means done yet, but they do need Donaldson back soon.

The quality of discourse around here of late is...not high. I guess some people have grown to feel entitled to have a first-place baseball team in their city, and so bitterness (and, for some, coarseness) is displacing intelligence and wit.

Old Borscht belt joke- the food in this place is terrible and such small portions...

Over the last 2 weeks, the pitchers haven't pitched, the batters haven't batted, the fielders haven't fielded, the manager hasn't managed, the ushers haven't ushered, the mound's too low, the sky's too high, the hot dogs are too cold, the stands are too hot, and the patrons are too drunk.  Now about that road trip...

I think the hate for "egotistical" Bautista is due to people taking reports of Bautista's pre-season contract demands too seriously. I've heard a lot of people saying stuff about him wanting 30 million a year or whatever. For one, that was probably never true, or at the very least was only a first step of a lengthy negotation. For two, he's smart enough to know he's not worth that anymore. There's no proof whatsoever that he's a selfish player, a bad teammate, or whatever.

I think we need some fresh blood starting the next gameday thread.

Bautista is a dick, but he's our dick. Which makes him easy to root for. For a team competing with two heavyweights it's nice to have a guy with swagger and that attitude playing for us. However if he was on any other team we'd likely hate him.

Can we agree on that?

No.

Jose was the only thing worth watching on this team for 5yrs before last year. and last year was not only awesome but he gave us our most memorable playoff moments and was our best playoff hitter while many other guys slumped. we should show him some appreciation, not dismiss him the first time he has a bad year as a jay. that's really, really weak.

and he rightly called out ownership this offseason to step the hell up and spend some money for once. why fans have taken rogers' side in that exchange is beyond me. we come off a playoff year with most of the team intact an the big offseason add is JA Happ. That's still embarassing no matter how well he's pitched.

Just a reality of being a publicly owned business. At the company I work for if my division does great but the company has a poor year I don't get a great bonus. Similarly Rogers hasn't done great this last year overall so they've likely diverted funds from baseball. Sucks for sure, but that's what happens when you're not owned by a billionaire spending his own cash.

Playoffs

Bautista 49pa, 4hr, 11rbi, 1.067ops
Donaldson 49pa, 3hr, 8rbi, .891ops
Colabello 41pa, 2hr, 3rbi, .830ops
Pillar 45pa, 1hr, 6rbi, .810ops
En'cion 47pa, 1hr. 5rbi, .783ops
Tulowitzki 46pa, 2hr, 11rbi, .625ops
Revere 51pa, 0hr, 1rbi, .590ops
Martin 33pa, 0hr, 1rbi, .564ops
Goins 40pa, 1hr, 4rbi, .412ops

Pompey 1pa, 0hr, 0rbi, 2.000ops
Navarro 14pa, 0hr, 0rbi, .294ops
Smoak 8pa, 0hr, 0rbi, .000ops
Carrera 2pa, 0hr, 0rbi, .000ops

cancer my a$$

The Jays are in the wildcard position right now and are two games out of first. The season is not over. Yes, it's been a rather dispiriting run, but let's have some perspective here.

NYY lose which is good. Detroit wins which is bad. Baltimore beats Boston which...I dunno. Jays are now behind two teams but the division deficit remains just 2 games. Playoff cushion is 1 game over Detroit.

hopefully the rays show up against boston and the others in their last series like they showed up against us.

remaining skeds:

TOR: BOSx3 (.559), BALx3 (.552), NYYx4 (.531), SEAx3 (.531), LAAx4 (.438)
BOS: BALx4 (.552), TORx3 (.545), NYYx7 (.531), TBRx3 (.428)
BAL: BOSx4 (.559), TORx3 (.545), NYYx3 (.531), TBRx3 (.428), ARZx3 (.417)
NYY: BOSx7 (.559), BALx3 (.552), TORx4 (.545), TBRx3 (.428)


Balty has the extra series against the bottom feeder that makes their sked the easiest, our extra series is againsg a playoff contender in SEA, while NY and BOS play each other an extra time making NY's sked looks the toughest.

I'm getting quite a kick out of correlating Bautista's return with the team slumping, and trying to assume causation. So it's Bautista's return that caused Donaldson to hit poorly? Did Bautista injure Donaldson as well?

Well, facing decent teams might be good for the Jays. Control their fate vs Boston, Baltimore and even the Yanks although if they reach the Jays odds are the year is toast.

Looking at the Jays I think a 5 game losing streak is the longest this year back in May and a 7 game winning streak is the longest that way in July. Lately though it has been win one, lose one, win one, lose 2-4, win one, ... a slow drip which is driving us nuts but at least has kept them from collapse. A hot streak and the division is won, a solid cold streak and everything is lost. 4 games from first to 4th right now. No one is a lock, no one is out of it (other than Tampa who is officially eliminated from the division). Tampa's wild card elimination number is 1. Only Minnesota is fully eliminated in the AL, Atlanta in the NL.

I wouldn't say a much different team. They only need to replace a couple of middle of the order bats and the bullpen.

I'm getting quite a kick out of correlating Bautista's return with the team slumping, and trying to assume causation.

Post hoc, ergo propter hoc, the sports fan's fallacy of choice.

Searching for positives...

Brett Cecil has been quietly repairing his season numbers. That homer he gave up against Cleveland was unfortunate, but even including that he's only allowed 3 runs in his last 22 appearances, good for a 1.72 ERA in 16 innings with 22 K : 4 BB.

Pretty much all low-leverage stuff facing 2 or 3 batters at a time, but, well, still. It's something.

Post hoc, ergo propter hoc

I can no longer see that phrase without remembering Josh Lyman attempting to explain it on The West Wing:

"Uh... after hoc... therefore... something else... hoc."

I think Donaldson has been affected by injuries for a while now and that has really hurt. More than anybody he seems to come through with the key hit at the right time or a big play defensively. No question the team is sucking bottom mud right now but I'd rather wait until season's end to start pointing fingers.

Also," Age is kind to no one ..." Except maybe David Ortiz ? He and age are good pals, apparently.

There's also this 42 year old in Miami who is hitting .304 with a .370 OBP in 341 PA this season.

35+ Team (fwar only)

1.2B Zobrist (35): 120wrc+, 3.6war
2.3B Beltre (37): 127wrc+, 5.1war
3.DH Ortiz (40): 161wrc+, 3.8war
4.1B Cruz (36): 143wrc+, 3.3war
5.LF Beltran (39): 124wrc+, 2.1war
6.RF Suzuki (42): 109wrc+, 1.8war
7.C Ross (39): 103wrc+, 1.8war
8.CF Davis (35): 91wrc+, 2.6war
9.SS Rollins (37): 68wrc+, -0.1war

B.UT Martinez (37): 117wrc+, 0.9war
B.OF Bautista (35): 113wrc+, 1.0war
B.IF Utley (37): 90wrc+, 1.4war
B.C Ruiz (37): 96wrc+, 1.3war


SP Lackey (37): 81era-, 3.0war
SP Colon (43): 84era-, 2.4war
SP Sabathia (36): 96era-, 2.4war
SP Iwakuma (35): 94era-, 2.2war
SP Lewis (37): 75era-, 1.0war
(SP Dickey (41): 107era-, 0.8war)

RP Ziegler (36): 54era-, 1.2war
RP Belisle (36): 45era-, 0.6war
RP Neshek (36): 60era-, 0.7war
RP Blanton (35): 62era-, 0.8war
RP Madson (36): 77era-, 0.5war
RP Grilli (39): 84era-, 0.5war
RP Benoit (38): 76era-, 0.3war
(RP Uehara (41): 91era-, 0.4war)

Estrada has been dealing with a herniated disk apparently. Likely a much better reason for the struggles he's gone through than the six man narrative nonsense.

Everyone's relieved to see these guys, right?

And now we're relieved to see the last of these guys.