The Twins have been decent except for their starting pitching.
The Jays have not been able to hit any starters.

Buxton robbed McKinney on that play, statcast had it as a base hit 81% of the time.

Not the first bad out at 3rd base this year.

Thou shalt not make the third out of the inning at third base. That's on a stone tablet somewhere.

Chris Davis now has more RBIs than any Blue Jay not named Galvis.

Jonathan Scoop would have been a nice offseason pickup for the Jays.

Looking around the league, there are similar players that have upside on one year deals. What would have been the garn in trying out a few more? Impactful kids are still in the minors.

The only thing that has disappointed me about this office is the fact that the young players they have helped to develop look over-matched and unbalanced. Jansen, SRF, McKinney, Teoscar, Grichuk, Drury... these players are not good enough to feature in MLB never mind compete against their counterparts in Boston and NY. It makes me wonder what all the noise is about concerning the special "player development."

Well their player development is focused on the minor leagues and 4 of those 6 players didn’t come up through the system, while the other two are just starting or close to starting in the majors. Too early to tell if their development approach is working but we should have a pretty good idea in the next couple of years.

I don't know what Grichuk is doing in that group anyway. He's 27 years old, and he's already had three 20+ HR seasons in the majors. He's an established player already.

Grichuk is an established big leaguer already so he should not be grouped in with the others you listed. Also, other than Jansen and SRF, the Jays did not have a hand in developing any of those players at the minor league level outside of a cup of coffee in AAA after being acquired in a trade. It is too early to draw any real conclusions from Jansen anyway. He's struggling offensively in his first month as a big league regular, that's not uncommon. I've always believed SRF is a RP long-term anyway so anything he provides as a SP is gravy. Obviously letting him fail as a SP before making the move makes the most sense.

The Jays are taking a long look at 'shots in the dark' this year. Usually the FO would sign veteran stop gaps to play positions that prospects cannot fill, but this year they decided to give those spots to young(er) players to see if maybe one of them could turn into something (Tellez, Hernandez, Gurriel, McKinney, Drury, Brito, etc). If any of those players becomes a long-term piece I'd be pretty surprised, but no harm in giving them a look in a season the team has clearly have been prepared to punt for months now.

They got 7 hits against the starter and managed only 1 run.
Shoemaker had that one bad luck inning and gave out 3 runs on 4 hits

I don't know the state of the Twins bullpen but a lefty reliever after a lefty starter is usually not a good idea.

Schoop hasn' t recovered from leaving Baltimore. He's their 8th hitter.

Two base running blunders. Two fielders bumping into each other. And yet, a win! The hitting is coming back.

Ok Gerry. I will complain tomorrow!!!

My point is merely that Gurriel is one of multiple players failing to perform basic baseball skills and IQ, and to fix that, he needs to go to AAA for further development. Most of the hoopla of this regime's MO was based on athletic players with high IQ and character. What I see are athletic players with basic skills missing:

Drury - can he track a baseball? How many pitches does he need to see and why is his swing plane widely off the mark nearly every time?

Teoscar - where on the field does this guy not hurt his own team and can he hit a pitch in the strikezone high or away? He looks to be pull happy

Jansen - looks overwhelmed but his defence and catching is trending right

The only guy who has spent time with this regime to be developed or fixed who looks good so far is Biagini.

Having Vlad on this team would help the rest of these players develop.

D5 says: "Having Vlad on this team would help the rest of these players develop."

Biggio is 24. Not a kid. His stats are now in 33 AB's: 394/500/667/1.167 bring him up - NOW!

Alford is 24. Not a kid - but as a two sport guy he is younger in total at bats than some of these guys who are just 20 years old. His stats are now in 33 AB's a meh: 212/278/485/763. He is however showing power and good outfield defense. I suspect if he was up playing CF, Girchuk could return to his better position (RF) and so far this year in 61 AB's his stats are: 230/299/475/774

Bo is 21. His stats in 41 AB's: 220/256/341/597 These are trending up after a very cold start, in a very cold town, during a very cold spring. Bo will be ready soon.

Vlad is 20. His stats in 25 AB's: 360/448/560/1.008. Vlad was ready when he was three years old. Bring him up - NOW!

Personally, I want all FOUR up now. Together. To struggle together, to learn together and eventually to succeed together. To begin a 5 to 10 year era of Blue Jay's dominance.

3rd base, SS, 2nd and both CF and RF all set on the correct path for a baseball length generation.

Gentlemen, make it happen!

Per Gregor Chisholm - Tepera..Likely tomorrow for a return, Wednesday at latest.

Probably best to give him an extra day off.

I wonder if there's something wrong with Drury still or if it's just the pressure or trying to hold on to third base when Guerrero comes up. He seems to have an option and to be in need of regular playing time.

Urena went 2 for 5 with a triple in his first game down. I hope he's not a future Dwight Smith Jr.

The pitching at Buffalo isn't great. Waguespack is the best starter with an ERA of 5.23.

Preach Mylegacy. The "rushed" story is overblown. By the numbers Griffey Jr. Was "rushed". He still belonged in the majors and still developed.

By contrast, delaying delgado probably cost him 500 HRs. I also dont think that development time is the reason for travis Snider.

Play the kids basically.

Smith Jr. (also 26 years old) may well end up having a better career than that of Hernandez. He is currently performing better than any of the Jays outfielders.

Maybe.  Smith Jr. has hit for more power in the major leagues so far than he showed in the high minors.  It might be a fluke or it might be just an age-related thing.  He was 25 years old in Buffalo last year, and he looked like, at best, a role player. 

(or steroids)

As I mentioned on an earlier thread, Smith Jr. OPS'd in the low to mid .700's for 4 years in AA/AAA. The chance that he now becomes a good major league hitter at age 26 after that weak and extensive minor league record is negligible.

Power is often the last component of a position player’s game to appear. If he is experiencing an uptick in power, characterizing him as a “low to mid 700 OPS” player may no longer be accurate. And his defense has been better this year as well (small sample of course). 0.5 WAR total so far in 2019, better than any Jays OF including Hernandez (zero WAR).

Agree about the power, the defence is massive SSS. All projection systems have him as below average,

Re: Giles. He was unavailable last night due to an "illness", but was still dressed and in uniform. Seemingly nothing to worry about.

Re: Grichuk. Totally agree that his baserunning blunder last night was an unacceptable risk. It wasn't a "hustle play"; he slowed down and tried to goad Byron Buxton (a former Platinum Gold Glove winner) into a lazy throw to the cutoff man, which he, of course, didn't fall for (Buxton wasn't even looking at Grichuk - there was no chance of this working).

This is harsh, but I would have liked to see Montoyo pull Grichuk from the game for this (like he did with Gurriel). By virtue of his extension, Grichuk is one of management's chosen veteran leaders, and this wasn't his finest moment as a Jay.

Cracka, it seems to me that Gurriel was pulled from the game in order to protect him. I think Montoyo thought any further groundballs hit to Gurriel could result in more poor throws, which could exacerbate the issue. I don't think Gurriel was being punished for his bad throw, which is why he wasn't removed from Saturday's game after a similar error. It was about preventing further issues with Gurriel, as opposed to punishing him (which is the same reason why Gurriel wasn't pulled mid-inning, as that would have been embarrassing to Gurriel and potentially seemed punitive).

I don't disagree with your or Mike Green's assessment of Grichuk's decision to run. It was ill-advised. However, it's something that hopefully Grichuk recognized as soon as he had a moment to reflect on it and that Montoyo could address with a quick word to him in the dugout. There's no need to pull him from the game and turn into a larger issue unnecessarily.

I disagree entirely with the thought he should have been pulled. In my view, that's reserved for something whether a player is not trying their hardest - and thus you can argue warrants a situation where the player should be pulled in favour of players who will try their hardest - or for when a player deliberately disobeys managerial instruction. Players make boneheaded plays, but you don't need to blow them out of proportion.

By the same logic, Montoyo should have pulled Drury and Hernandez when they both made a more fundamental mistake of not keeping track of the count (Hernandez initially headed back to the bag, but wasn't confident enough to stay there after Drury took a couple of steps towards second). And that would have potentially left the Jays with Brito in CF, presumably Tellez in LF and Sogard at 3B.

As to calling up the kids - I like the slow and steady approach. Wait until April is done before going nuts. May 1st do a series of moves if needed. Maybe wait until June 1st. The Jays aren't contenders so no need to rush anything.

Offense nightmares with current OPS+ via B-R
CA: Jansen 14
2B: Gurriel 46
3B: Drury 9
UT: Hansen 11
Negative OPS+ under 20 PA: Brito, Alford, Pillar (long gone)

Offensively Weak
RF: McKinney 70

Hernandez at 95 is poor with his defense. Tellez needs to be higher than his current 111 to stick.


Gurriel is down, Hansen getting more time, Travis recovering hoping to take it back. Drury will be replaced very soon by Vlad. Jansen should get tons of time this year although he better watch out as Maile could take it over if he doesn't hit soon.

Really, outside of Vlad only Biggio has a clear slot at 2B (assuming Travis doesn't come back soon at 100%) and even that would be a short term chance with Gurriel and Drury and Hansen all fighting for that slot once Vlad is up.

Alford in the OF would probably not hit as well as McKinney or Hernandez. I'd leave him in AAA most of this year unless his bat comes to life strongly.

I will accept that the For & Against runs scored is a pleasant surprise. But IMO we may be making more mental errors than normal. That is probably just because of youth and we should grow out of this.

As always patience.

Using early season defensive metrics present sample size problems, statcast outs above average stats aren't even released yet.

Dwight Smith Jr. currently has a 25.4 UZR/150 against a career -14.6 UZR/150, and he currently has a -1 DRS against a career -6 DRS.

Teoscar Hernandez currently has a -19.8 UZR/150 against a career -12.8 UZR/150 in left field, but on the opposite end has a +1 DRS against a career -10 DRS.

So what are the conclusions? UZR suggests DSJ is better and Hernandez is worse, DRS says DSJ is worse and Hernandez is better? I think it's too early to tell.

If Grichuk had been thrown out at 1st on that play, he definitely should have been pulled. :)

Re: more power at the major league level versus AAA - I've read enough to conclude that the MLB baseball leads to more power than expected based on minor league results.

I have been trying to figure out this rebuild. I feel Atkins has been quite truthful except that he hides a lot.

He handled Vlad's service time issue as well as he could. ie not badly.

When he said that we were not going to compete this year, he said nothing about giving a good try out to long shots like S Brito and A Hanson. No outfielder is being held back. Urena was playing v well and should have been kept up to further his ML progress.

Winning 88-92 games consistently satisfies the "we will contend" statement. We should be in a race for the 2nd WC always with that record. Minnesota's 85 wins, TB's 90 wins and our 2016 89 wins proves that.

To win 88-92 games we need the "waves of ML ready prospects". We have this. This FO stresses depth so a 3 man bench of backup catcher and 2 of Drury, McKinney, T Hernandez and Gurriel at all times is quite strong in talent. Playing multiple positions (well enough) adds strategic management. If making numerous mental errors is considered a weakness then not making them would be a strength. There is other stuff I am sure.

The TB way of doing things (low payroll) is successful. This, in the AL East.

By the same logic, Montoyo should have pulled Drury and Hernandez when they both made a more fundamental mistake of not keeping track of the count

Solid counter-argument and obviously you are right... we would run out of bench players if everyone who made a mistake last night was benched. Like I said, I see Grichuk as being one of the "chosen" veteran leaders of the team and think there should be high expectations of him. I've basically written off Drury as a placeholder at this point, but yeah, that was a more fundamental mistake for sure.

"I feel Atkins has been quite truthful except that he hides a lot."

Dan ZIPS FG chat yesterday:

Q: Is a 100% honest GM something that people say they really want, but would regret immediately?
Dan Szymborski: Yes

And while I was looking for that, found this for any GOT fans

Q: Who is the Cersei of baseball?
Dan Szymborski: After the Albies contract, maybe Alex Anthopoulos!

while we're stuck with littlefinger.

Sam Miller at ESPN with an interesting look at 3 April stats and whether they continue, or are just anomalies: Fewer triples, more pitcher wildness, starters ERA's lower than relievers.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26530114/disappearing-triples-imploding-bullpens-how-baseball-different-2019

Thanks for the Sam Miller link, hypobole.  It is a thoughtful piece.

while we're stuck with littlefinger.

Maybe he'll pick up the DFA'd Swihart just to tick you off even more (if that's possible) :)

Oh dear god it's gonna happen for sure isn't it.

I think we can all agree that Swihart would play 2B, 3B, and the corner OF spots badly, so he would fit right in on this roster:). (Joke)

The organization does seem to believe in Drury - he hasn't shown me anything, but who cares - and the good news for Drury is he's probably going to get a good bit of run at second base in the near future. Sooner or later, though, he's got to hit.

Brito in CF today, Grichuk in RF - make sense with more room to cover in CF - Drury sitting - he's really been a disappointment - I don't like his very upright batting stance - does Drury have options?

I've seen enough of Brito.  Not a fan of McKinney sitting against a RHP so that Brito can play. 

Last year and this, Drury is a combined 21 for 134, for a .157 average. And it's been a quiet .157 with just 8 XBH and just 10 walks. Not sure where else he'd get the opportunity he's getting now.

I don't know if it's that the organization has faith in Drury but imagine the heat they'd take if they gave up on one of the return for Happ this quickly - The FO already took a lot of heat for that trade with most fans giving a big thumbs down - wouldn't surprise me if they try to move him in July by using the Vlad is here excuse.

Yes, because a well-known hallmark of successful franchises is letting fan opinion guide their moves.

Yes it is.

Best fit for Swihart might be with the Yankees, but they're not trading for him.

First Red Sox/Yankees series are both teams have been bad with Boston tied with the Jays and New York just one game ahead.

At least, we are not expected to win.

I didn't like the Drury acquisition at the time, and I like it even less now. He's not a major league talent, and neither are Brito or Hanson. The only success Drury ever had in the major leagues was when playing home games in Arizona. Hanson has some pop batting left and some speed, but is likely just a good AAA player or mlb injury replacement. I would be amazed if any of those 3 guys are on the major league team 3 months from now.

I see Gurriel is DH'ing in game 1 of the double header for Buffalo today. Hoping to see them try him in the OF. Biggio is playing 1B with Urena at 2B.

Dalton Pompey bullied as a Blue Jay in the club house during "the years" per Prime Time Sports, a "deer in the headlights" who was taken advantage of by peers.

Among 194 qualified hitters Drury has the worst strikeout rate at 41%. There are 307 batters with at least 25 PA, and Drury has a 0.202 xwOBA which ranks 291st. Not to be outdone Allan Hanson's 0.162 xwOBA ranks 303rd.

I simply don't want Hanson on the roster, and at some point something has to change for Drury. His strikeout rate has never been even remotely bad before, so at least there is some hope he can turn it around.

Tbh there's not a piece of jays property over the age of 24 that I actually care about at this point. They're all just placeholders.

And even many of the 24yr olds are only borderline interesting.

I wonder if Hernandez's glasses are prescription.
When he dropped that ball in Boston, he was acting like he just lost a contact.

Next year, there's an extra position player on the roster, a speedy type would be most useful.
That make fringe players like Brito and Hanson more interesting but still not very valuable and you only need one.

It's going to take a while for the pitching picture to come into focus.
Shoemaker is good, but old and fragile. Bucholtz is older still and with low velocity.
They could extend one of Stroman/Sanchez and it would still leave a bunch of holes.
Guys you are supposed to take a step forward get hurt or struggle.

Socrates Brito... think I'll head on down to the Dome when the team is back in town. See if they'll give me a tryout.

"It doesn't sound like much but when Grichuk can recognize the difference between balls and strikes that's going to be a step in the right direction."

Buck is a treasure.

Brito and I remain tied in hits this year. That damn Chris Davis recently pulled ahead of me.

nice ending.

Great relay. Nice win.

Awesome way to win a game.

didn't think we had any chance at that off the bat. pretty sweet.

first back to back wins this year.

wow 2 assist game for teoscar. Gold Glove here I come!

Twins actually look worse than the Jays and Baldelli has a super laid back style that doesn't seem to match well with his roster.

CJ Cron looked mighty fast avoiding the DP down the 1st base line. He looks very slow rounding the bases during the relay.

Jays 2 games back from playoffs without Vlad.

Excellent throw from Teoscar, he hit Galvis on the glove side so Galvis could just step and throw home. It made all the difference in a close play.

Add VGJ, Biggio, Borucki, Tepera, Phelps, Bichette (maybe), and other reinforcements ... despite everything, could the Jays actually become somewhat good in 2019 and sneak into contention?

I was not a fan of the Happ deal at the time, and hindsight hasn't made it any better. Drury has never been this bad, so maybe there is hope for a bounce back, but if he has options left, then at some point they will have to consider using it. Although there isn't much competition for the 2B spot at the moment so once Vlad comes up they will probably move Drury to 2B and hope his bat turns around.

I have said before, Brian Cashman simply does not lose trades. Maybe you'll find one or two bad ones out of 20, but I would rather never trade with him again if possible.

So Cashman didn't lose the Happ trade. Does that mean the Yankees win the Happ trade? The Jays didn't win the Happ trade. Did they lose the Happ trade?

Just because you don't lose a trade, does not mean you won the trade. Happ is terrible right now. Mckinney and Drury have two things right now - upside and control.

Cashman does things that people include as part of the trade. Happ getting signed in the offseason is an example of this. That is a separate move by Cashman. He traded for 2 months of Happ who delivered little in the playoffs when it mattered.

Drury is already in his arb years and his upside is questionable. He did some work on improving his launch angle prior to 2018 but it hasn’t reflected in his results, if anything he’s gotten worse (granted in a small sample size). It made no sense to target someone like that, especially if months later they were going to go fully into a rebuild. Cashman trading that plus an expendable OF prospect with limited upside for two months of the best SP on the market at the time was a no brainer. I don’t want to beat a dead horse, the move happened and it is what is, but hindsight hasn’t been any nicer to the deal than what most thought at the time.

I’m not ruling out improvement from Drury, as the team clearly saw potential in him, but it’s not something I’m going to expect unless I start seeing some positive development in his underlying numbers.

I will only say I was not a fan at the time of the deal, to say the least, but am still hoping to be proven wrong... for obvious reasons.

Lots of Drury talk for a game in which he didn't actually play.

Going forward, only one of Drury/Brito in each game would help.

Sogard is 3/5 and Drury is 8/57.

Dury was acquired by the Yankees because he fits their stadium, a right handed batter with power the other way. He was not healthy. I don't know if he is. His condition was kinda like a concussion. Double vision? He certainly isn't seeing the ball well. He takes pitches down the middle and chases outside pitches.

Out of Arizona Drury worked with JD Martinez's private coach to revamp his swing and changed his launch angle from 7.4 to 13.8 degree.  This year he has a babip of .250. ZIPS and streamer have him around .630-.650 OPS. Meh. For now, he's striking out a 41.7%. 

He's swinging at 34% of the pitches outside the strike zone. That's about 3% more than his career line, but he's missing 49% of the time. With his Arizona swing he was missing only 40% of the time.

Bottom line, if you wanna go all launch angle, better find your eye at the plate.

Outside observers thought the Happ trade was fair value. Here are Fangraphs rankings of the prospects traded at the deadline - note Drury's position on the list.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-at-the-deadline-2/

Rightly or wrongly (but probably wrongly),many GM's have a recency bias when making deadline deals. And Happ had a miserable July, 4 GS, 17 IP, 7.41 ERA, .924 OPS. We'll never know what other offers were on the table but highly doubtful as good as "best pitcher on the market" would suggest.

A reasonable argument could be made (asa number of posters did), that the FO should have insisted on non-40 man lower level prospects, in which case the value would almost assuredly been lower.

Pre-season we were expected to win 73-76 games. Started cold and around the time of the Cleveland sweep, someone posted top 3 pick. Now we've won a couple, holding our own against contenders and the word playoffs has cropped up.

FG still has us as a 74 win team, and that's close to where I see it. Our cold hitting has been showing signs of life, Vlad will be here in a week and maybe Biggio and a couple of others come up/get healthy to remove the Brito's from the roster.

But we have a very, very brittle starter group, with no seemingly ready depth in the upper minors. SRF and Paulino have been awful, Borucki is gone till mid-June at the earliest. Waguespack has been the best Bison starter and that's not cause for optimism.

Another interesting piece on the current state of baseball, from The Ringer, echoing some of Sam Miller's ESPN piece yesterday, but also other trends including this:

"Last year was the first full season in history in which strikeouts outnumbered hits, and only by 189. Through Monday, the league was batting only .244, and strikeouts were already ahead of hits by 305."

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/4/17/18411670/home-run-walk-strikeout-rate-increase-record

Hernandez still lacks overall focus, but has seemed to have made some all around improvements to his game. Here are his April stats:

0.293/0.375/0.463 wRC+ 124
12.5% BB%, 25% K%, 0.171 ISO%

I think if he continues to trade off a little power for a little more plate discipline he will be a much better overall hitter.

Pre-season we were expected to win 73-76 games. Started cold and around the time of the Cleveland sweep, someone posted top 3 pick. Now we've won a couple, holding our own against contenders and the word playoffs has cropped up.

Must be April...

Another interesting piece on the current state of baseball, from The Ringer, echoing some of Sam Miller's ESPN piece yesterday, but also other trends including this:

"Last year was the first full season in history in which strikeouts outnumbered hits, and only by 189. Through Monday, the league was batting only .244, and strikeouts were already ahead of hits by 305."

There's a Simpsons episode where Homer gets a job wirting fortune cookie fortunes. One that he comes up with off the cuff is "The price of stamps will climb ever higher." In baseball we can say "The rate of strikeouts will climb ever higher."
When there are more Ks than hits it feels like a line has been crossed. Lower the mound...

"But we have a very, very brittle starter group, with no seemingly ready depth"

Keuchel is reportedly available on a one-year contract.

SPs certainly are fragile. In the off season I looked at longevity of Jays pitchers since 2010. #3 & 4 types, not #1. Era 3.5-4.5 and about 150 IP/Season. S Marcum 5 years, R Romero 3 years. Litsch under 2 years. B Cecil, Morrow, Zep and C Janssen has maybe 1 good year as a SP but continued on as good relievers.

Shapiro has made it clear that developing SPs is V important and I think he said that is the hardest thing to do.

So I guess expecting failure in SP development is a big part of building a competitive team. To combat this quantity is crucial. Having Stroman and Sanchez and then adding to the rotation with young SPs like Borucki & SRF. About 5 of these young guys would be a good accomplishment. 2-4 cheap veterans like Buchholz, Shoemaker and C Richard is another good strategy. Giving a Biagini type a shot in the rotation is another strategy.

So Pearson & Pardhino would project as possible #1 like Stroman, Sanchez, Thor.

I suspect once the draft is done he'll get it very quickly.
Crazy how valuable people have made draft picks. Keuchel over a 5 year contract would help a team win far more than the average first round pick (outside of top 10) with little doubt. But that lottery chance (Halladay was picked 16th iirc) keeps teams hording picks now. Keuchel though isn't too useful for the Jays right now unless the team finds itself in contention by some miracle. Maybe Biggio at 2B and Vlad at 3B... :)

AA had a good plan with pitchers - draft a crapload of good arms and hope to get a few up here, use others as trade chips as teams always need pitching. 12 slots, if a guy doesn't make it as a starter he might be a closer. If not a closer, might be a setup, etc. Hitters though either hit so well position doesn't matter or need to be strong in the field at a position to deal with their bat (IE: good bat for 2B won't work well at 1B as you need a much better bat there, thus why the Jays did that bizarre attempt to get Cecil Fielder to play 3B - man was that an ugly spring - as they had McGriff at 1B too and Willie Upshaw).

I hope the current GM is good at finding strong arms. Just because there are a few up here or close doesn't mean the Jays should slow down efforts to get more. More! MORE!!!

From FG:

" In his contract year, Dallas Keuchel was able to prove he could hit the 200 inning plateau once again but did so with his second-worst ERA since 2013. A 3.74 mark isn't inherentlybad, though he took steps back in notable areas that should bring concern in 2019 and beyond. A successful Keuchel sits at the bottom edge of the zone with his sinker, changeup, and slider, toying with batters and baiting them to swing as pitches often tumble just at the last moment. However, Keuchel struggled to find this rhythm last year, showcasing a dip in O-Swing that forced him to throw pitches in the zone at a 42.5% mark. It led to his highest allowed contact rate since his rookie season and a thirteen point drop in groundball rate. His slider was the biggest detriment, dropping massively in chases off the plate and swings-and-misses while raising its BAA nearly one hundred points, and without that breaker, Keuchel doesn't have enough in his changeup and sinker to hint at the ace of old. Keep an eye out for the pitch to return early for Keuchel or it will be more slightly above average production - if not worse - in 2019."

The above shows reasons beyond the draft pick (in our case 2nd rounder plus $500 K IFA money next year) that are giving teams pause. He's better than anything else out the, I'm sure, but is he a difference maker anymore?

It would take a few things to break right (health, first and foremost), but the Jays could be a better-than-expected team in a few months.

SP: Stroman, Sanchez, Shoemaker, Buchholz, Thornton (Borucki, SRF, Richard, Pannone)

RP: Giles, Biagini, Tepera, Phelps, Hudson, Pannone, Mayza, Luciano

IF: VGJ, Galvis, Biggio, Smoak (Tellez, Bichette, Gurriel, Sogard, ???)

C: Jansen, Maile

OF: Grichuk, Teoscar, McKinney (Biggio, Alford, ???)

It doesn’t look like a championship-calibre roster, but with some health and luck and continued effective pitching, it could conceivably hang around the WC race.

Crazy schedule for the Jays the next 30 days.

After the Twins, fly to Oakland for 3.
Fly home for 5 games, then a 2nd trip to the west coast to play the Angels, then to Texas.
Fly home for 6 games, then a 3rd west coast trip to play 2 games with the Giants, then to Chicago.

I admire your optimism greenfrog. We should have won that 2nd game in Boston.
The Gurriel throwing error forced Stroman to throw an extra 15 pitches I think. This wears down a pitching staff. The pen gets used up.

We want to protect our players from injury and other stuff. The other stuff would be Gurriel losing his confidence in his throwing to 1st. T Hernandez must become confident in his defensive game.

For PR/attendance purposes I'd expect the Jays to promote Vlad on a homestand & when he's hitting well.

I expected Drury to slide over to 2nd when Vlad arrived but given his struggles if Drury has options I'd option him to AAA - Sogard is probably the backup SS.

I know people are going to hate this but I'd DFA Brito (good chance Jays still keep him in AAA) and claim Blake Swihart - can always DFA him later - my guess is the Red Sox will trade him to an NL club. Cycling through has-beens hoping to find a nugget is what rebuilding teams should do.

Vizcaino is out for the year, Minter is struggling mightily & Kimbrel is probably too expensive - in a tough 4 team race, can the Braves really wait until July to make a move & the Jays have showed they are willing to trade at any time. Ken Giles to Atlanta makes so much sense.

Speaking of attendance, it seems like the first 2 games of this series have broken records.

Tuesday's game drew 13,365 fans, the second-fewest in Target Field history. Monday's game against Toronto had a smaller crowd, with an announced attendance of 11,727.

With a rain delay, we might be able to do ever better

I think Swihart makes more sense if the Jays are replacing Maile with him (and I've not seen anything that suggest they aren't happy with Maile as a backup). Jansen's early season struggles aside, he's the leading contender to be the organization's long-term catcher of the future. I have no interest in taking at-bats away from him by turning catcher into a three-way job share.

I know that Swihart has experience in the corner outfield positions and elsewhere, but I've seen nothing in the last few years that suggests he can hit well enough to hold down one of those positions. I think Swihart's primary value is as a backup catcher, not as a corner outfielder who can also play catcher. Then again, I've seen nothing that suggest Brito is a major league outfielder, so it may be worth taking a look at Swihart for a couple of weeks.

The A's have just put Estrada on the IL with back issues.
Sounds familiar. We're going to miss him, which is too bad because he has not been good.
.

Swihart can't catch.

Arguably passable in LF. In Fenway at least.

And he definitely can't hit.

Sounds like the perfect Jay.

Swihart is an interesting reclamation project, but I don't think he's major league catcher (or at least, I'm sure the Red Sox don't think that). He was never known for his defense and has only started ~90 games at catcher in the last 3+ years (minors includes). There only are a few teams that would consider an "offense-first" back-up catcher, and Swihart hasn't hit well enough since 2015 to make anyone interested. Yet he fits the profile of a very late bloomer: Highly athletic, high pick/pedigree, BUT injuries & playing the wrong position in mid 20's (Bautista, Donaldson, and Encarnacion all fit this profiel to some degree). He needs a defensive position -- he's not an ideal utility guy, as he has very little experience other than at Catcher (18 starts in OF + 1 at 1B). Will be interesting to see if a non-contender gives him a shot playing in the field on a regular basis, or if he's just a 25th man, utility guy at this point.

Swihart is 27yrs old.

He has a career .615ops in AAA. A career .726ops in all MILB.

his career .679ops in MLB is inflated by a .340babip.

he can't hit.

also, he can't defend.

Elvis Luciano now has a lower ERA than Travis Bergen.

“Elvis Luciano now has a lower ERA than Travis Bergen.”

My favourite Batter’s Box post, ever.

How about giving Roemon Fields an opportunity in place of Socrates.

Luciano's changeup looked really good in his 1.1 innings of work. He's only 19 and has no business in the big leagues, so I'm not concerned about the numbers necessarily, but you can see why the Jays like him. Hopefully he can get through this season in one shape, and continue to develop in the minors from 2020-onwards.

The main thing for me with Luciano is that he doesn't look like a deer in the headlights with any frequency, and I haven't noticed any signs of that at this point. He's doing something in the range of what I'd expect (well, a bit better after tonight's game), which is show occasional bouts of wildness, but not pitch balls to the backstop.

As for Swihart, it really comes down to a couple things - is there some clay left to work with (especially on defense), and do you think you'd have a reasonable shot at passing him through waivers in about 10 days. I mean, the Brito experiment pretty much has to be over at this point, so there's an opportunity to do a bit of asset collection. If they think they have enough OFs for the week, why not carry him as a 3rd C / LF / DH for a week or so? For all the reasons ugly mentioned, though, I'm not giving the idea a full-throated endorsement, but it'd be something I'd mull over if I were the front office.

Swihart is one of those switch hitters who really can only hit one way. He's a terrible right handed batter, with a career OPS of .523, with no power at all. Batting lefty, he's not bad, with an OPS of .734. He had a couple of very nice minor league seasons in 2013/2014, and then his 1st 2 mlb seasons weren't bad, but he's dropped off dramatically since then. Doesn't hit well enough to be an OF or 1B, so he'd have to make it as a catcher, and as the lefty side of a platoon, would have plenty of offense if he hit like in 2015/2016. Just how bad is his defense, and is it fixable? He probably should have tried forgetting about switch-hitting a few years ago, but he's kind of old to do that now.

"Elvis Luciano now has a lower ERA than Travis Bergen.”

My favourite Batter’s Box post, ever."

- Seconded

I missed the game, so I'm looking at the box score - and it's very, very weird. All three pitchers Toronto used in the game wound up with the same ERA - 5.40. When does that ever happen? (once we get past any opening week shutouts.)

I am a little worried about Thorton's splits, he has a 0.293 wOBA against righties and a 0.416 wOBA against lefties. This kind of mirrors his minor league splits and if he doesn't improve against lefties I think he is looking at a career in the bullpen.

All three pitchers Toronto used in the game wound up with the same ERA - 5.40

Number 9, number 9, number 9... I believe this portends the imminence of end times and the four Norsemen of the Acropolis and all that. Or something. I am not strong in mythology.

Tepera was on hand, ready to be activated, but they waited in case of a double header the next day.
I'm guessing Guerra would be the odd man out here, since he pitched 2 mop up innings at the end.

We traded Aldemys Diaz for Thornton precisely because the Astros didn't view him as starting material. Jays brass is just trying to get lucky. Thornton looks like a mediocre reliever/mop up man to me.

Thorton has an elite curveball and I think that plays up in the bullpen, and worst case could be a set-up man such as Ryan Pressly if his change-up doesn't improve. Sanchez had similar issues earlier in his career and won an ERA title afterwards, Thorton has only 4 starts with his new franchise there are adjustments to make and time to see if they work. Despite my worries, his curveball is a great building block for a team lacking elite tools and pitches.

that's probably closer to best-case than worst-case.

Thornton was available from the Astros because they had 40 man problems, not because they didn't think he could start. I think he still has promise as a starter...are we dismissing his first 2 outings in that regard? At the very least, he should be an impact reliever, not a medicocre mop up. That comment was off the mark imo.

"Thornton precisely because the Astros didn't view him as starting material".

Where did you hear this, since you seem to be stating it as fact?

Looks like a one pitch pitcher to me, with good command.

AAA (23-24): 239.1ip, 20.7k%, 5.3b%, 4.74era, 4.14fip, 4.08fip

Very pedestrian numbers, and pretty pedestrian stuff other than the curve.

Turning into an effective mlb starter is a stretch imo. Probably more of a Biagini.

Birthdays today include Miguel Cabrera and Wahoo Sam Crawford.  But also Henderson Alvarez III (aka The Entertainer). How did I not know that he had the comical III after his name and the nickname to go with it?  And knowing this, how could the Blue Jays have traded him away?

I thought there was an exception to the mound visit count if there was an obvious cross-up. Maybe Maile didn't know or maybe that exception was taken away for this year.

Tepera is back. Javy got the DFA.

Just heard on 590 that they have determined Thornton has been tipping his pitches.

If you sub in VGJ for Drury and Biggio for Sogard (who moves to a utility role), today's lineup looks pretty decent to me.    If you look at xwOBA for the year, you have Smoak .384, Hernandez .341, Galvis .339, Tellez .335, Grichuk .332, McKinney .327, Jansen .270, Guerrero and Biggio.  That looks like an above-average offence.  If you look back at 2018 numbers and adjust, Smoak is probably 30-40 points lower and Jansen 30-40 points higher and everyone else very close. 

Speaking of curveballs and the Jays I noticed something interesting, as the Jays entered todays game with the 5th best starter ERA in the majors. In the offseason I lamented that the Jays were a fastball heavy pitching staff while the elite pitching staffs were moving to more off-speed usage.

However now in 2019 they have dropped their fastball percentage to 49.5% (21st) from 59.0% (4th) in 2018 . The major difference, in 2019 their curve ball usage increased to 20.9% (3rd) from 7.5% (27th) in 2018.

Very nice lineup M Green. Vlad is coming up because the FO says so. They are just waiting for him to recover. Biggio needs to be rule 5 protected. If he continues to dominate AAA, I would like him up for 200-250 ABs this year. That way he is not new to the Majors next year. If Bo also dominates AAA I am thinking about him the same way. 200-250 ABs.

Hanson and Brito are not in the lineup today.

Solo Hr by Grichuk.

"They are just waiting for him to recover"

spoiler: he's recovered

Maybe if they keep waiting, he'll get hurt again, and then they'll get to claim they're waiting for him to be healthy...

Word. We're clearly well past the point where... well, put it this way. Every at bat Guerrero takes in the minor leagues is a waste of who he is.

The rumour out there is for a Vlad debut against Oak in Toronto, with a smaller chance he debuts earlier against the SFG in Toronto and an even smaller chance he debuts this weekend away in Oakland. Weather in Buffalo will be a factor in the decision according to reports.

My thoughts on Trent Thornton are not facts. I think he is more Biagini than Sanchez relief, just like Ugly has said. He wasn't going to be protected on their 40 man because Houston didn't see him as a starter...look at the organization...they will trade for a SP before taking a prospect like Trent Thornton to be a SP.

Also, his curve all is one of the best only if you put that much weight in spin rate.

Finally, on the radio there was a disagreement about tipping pitches. Pete Walker suspected he was tipping pitches based simply on how bad TB hit him. Barker chalks it up to other things.

Thornton should continue to get his starts but he sure looks like a reliever to me. He seems at least one pitch short of having a stater’s arsenal. Time will tell.

I think you are right dalimon5. Rumors make the most sense because he is coming up once not 3 times. I think the media is doing this rumor thing. Sort of an unofficial pool on his debut.

I spend some time trying to figure out Atkin's rebuild strategy. Especially Brito and A Hanson. Both are 26 years old with good tools and have pretty good minor league numbers. Therefore they are hoped for/expected to develop into regulars. Part time bench players would be a ridiculous goal because A Diaz, Solarte and E Sogard are cheap bench/depth pieces to acquire. Brito and Hanson were traded for. Ok, we also traded for Diaz and Solarte. Diaz did turn out v well. Thornton is good too, only Stroman, Sanchez and Shoemaker are clearly ahead of him. The quality of Buchholz is to be determined and he has not blocked SRF, Borucki Or C Richard

I think the FO prefers quantity vs quality and are hoping that if they get enough guys some will have big seasons.

I think the same thing also applies with veterans. Get a lot of cheap veterans and the ones that have good/great seasons you can trade at the deadline.

Galvis/Shoemaker/Buccholz are playing very well right now. If they can somehow keep this up the FO has the option to flip them for prospects.

I liked the comment of Magpie that if you go through enough relievers you are bound to find one who does not have it that day.

I hope we are not heading in that direction today.

The defence with Galvis and Sogard in the middle has been pretty solid this series.  The Blue Jays as a whole so far this season (prior to today's game) have been slightly positive according to DRS and almost exactly even according to UZR.  It's easy to see the difference.

Wish they had sent Pannone down to get innings in as a starter. Buffalo SP so far are frightening and it would be nice to have some other options next year. They may also need to replace Thorton at some point so it would be nice if his arm was ready.

"The defence with Galvis and Sogard in the middle has been pretty solid this series".

Yeah, I figured the pitching staff would be a lot more enthused about the Sogard call-up than the fan base. It must feel great to have "solid" behind them than the blooper reels they had almost become accustomed to the past year.

As far as DRS and UZR, they both have anomalies with SSS. The team DRS leader at +3 is Teoscar. And per UZR/150, our best 2nd baseman this year has been Gurriel.

It's hard to get quality starting pitching.
They've been opened to trade Stroman for some, but nobody was really interested.
San Diego has a lot of pitching, but they seem determined to keep them.
They'll change their mind only when they run into 40 roster limitations.

The position players have looked much better when facing bad pitching.
Detroit and Baltimore had better starters than Minnesota.
The Twins bolstered their lineup, but they didn't find starting pitchers.
They probably plan to use what they have and make a trade later if they're in contention.

Thorton won the 5th starter job in the spring, once Borucki went on the shelf.
He's right on the prospect list between Reid-Foley (who is still trying to get going) and Zeuch (who is injured). He has great K/B numbers. His FIP is down because he gives up too many homeruns. He has a plus fastball but he didn't have command in the cold. Buck said that one of his old coach who is now with Tampa told him straight up that they had "something on him".

I would have kept Urena at second. It's where Drury will end up shortly, anyway.
Do they keep Sogard or Hanson on the bench? Does it matter?

"They've been opened to trade Stroman for some, but nobody was really interested."

Teams were interested:

"The Astros were one of the teams that showed interest in trading for Marcus Stroman over the winter, The Athletic’s
Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required). The Reds and Padres were also linked to Stroman in reports."

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/marcus-stroman

Just wouldn't cough up what the FO was asking:

"While right-hander Marcus Stroman has frequented trade rumors in recent months, Nicholson-Smith suggests nobody has approached Toronto’s asking price yet."

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/blue-jays-notes-top-fas-stroman-travis.html

Yeah, not interested in trading quality pitching prospects.
That's what the "some" was standing for.

A little behind (still watching Wednesday's game), but just wanted to mention my new favorite "Buckism". I think it even made the condensed game: "He hits it high and deep.. but not deep...". LOL.

So, I guess Pannone's 1 out appearance was judged "brief and ineffective" and the official scorer instead gave the win to Biagini who pitched the 8th.  We don't see that often.

I wonder if Harold Ramirez would have had a chance instead of Brito had he taken the more lucrative Jays offer.

His spring line was : .324 .351 .441.

BR has Socrates with  -.6 WAR in just 23 AB.
Hanson is at -.5 and Drury at -.4.
I feel sorry for Buffalo where many were hoping this was the year.

When the Jays signed Sogard I mentioned that it could be a nice add especially if Sogard could win the backup MI job and allow Urena to get more developmental time in AAA - someone posted rather derisively that Sogard's signing was not news or forum discussion worthy - well it's only one series, but I think a slice of humble pie is on the menu.

Sogard's hitting will regress, hopefully more to his 2017 level than 2018. But I don't think that's why he's here. As Mike pointed out, he and Galvis are giving the Jays solid defence, and he's been consistently solid for years, no matter how well or poorly he's hit.

And our starters really need solid. They are one of 4 MLB rotations with a GB% between 46.3% and 46.5%. Only 2 other rotations have a higher GB%.

I'm not sure if that's going to stand.
Stroman is a ground ball machine.
Sanchez is around 50% the last 3 years, down from his early days.
Shoemaker is currently at 51%, but his career number is 40%.

I figure Sogard was signed in the spring in case of injury.
I'd  have kept Urena rather than Hanson.
I think Montoyo was expecting Urena to be a better bunter and Urena was just trying to show he can hit.
If anything, Urena is back in Buffalo learning the selfless life of a role player.
He's earned an other shot, but there are other prospects waiting for those MLB opportunities.

Vladdy officially up for Tuesday.

Wonder who they send down. Drury?

Wonderful news UO!!

As far as I know the "official" word has come from a Spanish language journalist who seems to be well connected. It is likely true just not necessarily official.

I think the Jays will want Vladdy to play some home games in Buffalo as a goodwill gesture - if the games this wknd. are rained out, then Vladdy may have to wait maybe until the Jays next homestand

Drury, Brito, and Hansen (who I barely knew was on the team) are a combined 14-110 (.127). None are notable on defense. There's no such thing as a roster crunch with these three around.