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If you were to believe what you read in Batters Box recently there is no hope for the Blue Jays. The low payroll dooms the team to eternal mediocrity. JP's signing and trading record is poor. There is no-one to replace Delgado. There is no-one to replace Hinske, and on and on. Several posters have suggested they do not see how the Jays can escape last place. Just remember the old saying "you are never as bad as you look when you are down". So what is the blueprint for success on a low payroll? Does JP have a plan? Is the light at the end of the tunnel a train?

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Recently we looked at the questions "What Can We Expect From a 14th Overall Draft Pick?" and "What Can We Expect From a 15th Overall Draft Pick?" Now that we know that the Jays will be picking 6th overall in next year's draft the question on everyone's mind is "What Can We Expect From a 6th Overall Draft Pick?"
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First in a three-part series.

Although my magnum opus -- okay, mildly interesting account -- of the greatest postseason games in baseball history remains a work in progress, I've decided to pen some shorter, more concise articles in the meantime.

After the Santana-Mussina matchup last night, I thought I'd snap up a list of the top ten pitching duels in Division Series history.
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A number of you wanted to evaluate how well JPs free agent signings have performed. To help you out in doing this, here are some stats.
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Last year, I presented a theoretical model as to the talent distribution in MLB (actually, the world, too).

Can we figure out what it actually is, and can we use that to figure out the replacement level?

Here are my quick thoughts on the matter...
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Clay Davenport discusses Regression Towards the Mean, as it applies to a team's true talent level. My heart was sent aflutter. There is no more important topic on analyzing baseball performance numbers than sample size and regression towards the mean.

It's a great stab by Clay, but he goes slightly wrong. Here's an "open letter" to Clay that I hope will foster additional discussions among readers.
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