Baseball America's Top 30 Blue Jays Prospects For 2016

Monday, March 07 2016 @ 02:52 PM EST

Contributed by: #2JBrumfield

I finally got my copy of the Old Testament - the Baseball America Prospect Handbook 2016. Let's delve into the chapter on the Blue Jays, shall we?

Anthony Alford leaped 17 spots from last year to snare Baseball America's #1 prospect ranking in the Blue Jays system. (Image from Toronto Star)

Baseball America grades each player on the traditional 20-80 scouting scale:

75-80 Franchise player/number one starter
65-70 Perennial All-Star/number two starter
60 Occasional All-Star/number two-three starter/game's best closer
55 First division regular/number three-four starter/elite closer
50 Number four starter/elite set-up reliever
45 Second division regular/platoon/set-up reliever
40 Reserve player/swingman/long reliever

BA also assigns a risk factor grade for each player:

Safe - player is ready to contribute in the majors this season and has shown a realistic ceiling
Low - player is likely to reach his ceiling and become a big leaguer barring injury
Medium - player still has some tools to sharpen for major league caliber skills but is fairly polished
High - player is a first-year draft pick, has plenty of projection involved or has a worrisome injury history
Extreme - teenager in rookie ball, a player with a significant history of injuries or struggles with a key skill (pitcher's control or hitter's strikeout rate) that is a significant barrier to reaching his potential

No.#	Player	Position	Grade	Risk	2015 Rank
1	Anthony Alford	OF	60	Medium	18
2	Conner Greene	RHP	55	High	NR
3	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	OF/3B	60	Extreme	NR
4	Richard Urena	SS	55	Extreme	8
5	Sean Reid-Foley	RHP	55	Extreme	10
6	Jon Harris	RHP	50	High	NR
7	Rowdy Tellez	1B	50	High	30
8	Max Pentecost	C	55	Extreme	5
9	Justin Maese	RHP	55	Extreme	NR
10	D.J. Davis	OF	50	Extreme	21
11	Reggie Pruitt	OF	50	Extreme	NR
12	Clinton Hollon	RHP	50	Extreme	NR
13	Roemon Fields	OF	45	High	NR
14	Ryan Borucki	LHP	50	Extreme	12
15	Jose Espada	RHP	45	High	NR
16	Brady Dragmire	RHP	45	High	NR
17	Chad Girodo	LHP	40	Low	NR
18	Hansel Rodriguez	RHP	50	Extreme	NR
19	Yennsy Diaz	RHP	50	Extreme	NR
20	Lupe Chavez	RHP	50	Extreme	NR
21	Tom Robson	RHP	50	Extreme	25
22	Dan Jansen	C	45	High	20
23	Mitch Nay	3B	45	High	16
24	Matt Dean	1B/3B	45	High	NR
25	Carl Wise	3B	45	High	NR
26	Angel Perdomo	LHP	45	Extreme	NR
27	Andy Burns	3B/2B	40	Medium	24
28	Dwight Smith Jr.	OF	40	Medium	14
29	Tyler Burden	RHP	45	High	NR
30	Evan Smith	LHP	45	Extreme	NR

Anthony Alford was bested by only one player in terms of making the biggest jump inside the Top 30 rankings. That honour went to Rowdy Tellez, who shot up to number seven all the way from 30 last year. Richard Urena and Sean Reid-Foley improved their top 10 rankings to top five, going from 10-5 to 8-4 respectively. D.J. Davis re-entered the top 10 after ranking 21st in 2015. Clinton Hollon (#12) and Matt Dean (#24) made it back into the Top 30 after a one-year absence. Hollon was rated 15th two years ago. Fellow northpaw and Tommy John survivor Tom Robson saw his stock increase four spots from 25 to 21.

Players who saw their fortunes drop in the Top 30 include Dwight Smith Jr., who saw his ranking sliced in half from 14 to 28 and Mitch Nay tumbled from seven spots from 16 to 23. Max Pentecost dipped from five to eight and Ryan Borucki slipped from 12 to 14. Dan Jansen (from 22 to 20) and Andy Burns (27 to 24) saw their standings suffer a minor setback. Players who dropped out of the rankings completely were Matt Smoral (11), Lane Thomas (19), A.J. Jimenez (23) and Juan Meza (27).

There are 18 new players on this year's Top 30 list, the most prominent being Conner Greene who made it all the way to number two after being tabbed as a sleeper prospect by Baseball America last year. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is right behind Greene after being signed as a free-agent out of the Dominican Republic last year. He is joined by a trio of 2014 international signings in Hansel Rodriguez, Yennsy Diaz and Lupe Chavez and 2011 signing Angel Perdomo. Other players previously in the farm system to make their Top 30 debuts were Roemon Fields, Brady Dragmire, Chad Girodo and Evan Smith. A half-dozen players from the 2015 draft made the Top 30, led by first rounder Jon Harris as well as Justin Maese (3rd round), Reggie Pruitt, (24), Jose Espada (5), Carl Wise (4) and Tyler Burden (20).

Players no longer with the organization from last year's Top 30 include Daniel Norris (1 - Detroit), Jeff Hoffman (3 - Colorado), Miguel Castro (9 - Colorado), Dawel Lugo (15 - Diamondbacks), Chase DeJong (17 - Dodgers), Alberto Tirado (22 - Phillies), Jesus Tinoco (26 - Phillies), Nick Wells (28 - Mariners) and Matt Boyd (29 - Detroit). Players who graduated to Toronto were Aaron Sanchez (2), Dalton Pompey (4), Devon Travis (6) and Roberto Osuna (7).

Overall, the Blue Jays are ranked as having the 24th best farm system in the majors by Baseball America. That's a drop of 20 spots from 2015.

Conner Greene made an impressive jump to become the #2 prospect in the system after not being ranked in 2015. (Image from @connergreene)

Moving on to the best tools in the system, Anthony Alford is listed by Baseball America as the best hitter for average along with best strike zone discipline and best athlete. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is rated the best power hitter and Roemon Fields is the fastest baserunner. Conner Greene is considered to have the best fastball and changeup while Clinton Hollon's curveball and Sean Reid-Foley's slider are the best breaking balls in the system. Best control belongs to Chad Girodo. Defensively, Dan Jansen is rated the best catcher and Richard Urena the best infielder and best infield arm. Fields is named the best outfielder while Reggie Pruitt has the best outfield arm.

BA believes Brady Dragmire will be the top rookie on the farm in 2016 while calling for Yennsy Diaz to be the breakout prospect of 2016 and infielder John La Prise to be its sleeper candidate.

The 2019 projected lineup has Max Pentecost at catcher, Rowdy Tellez at first base, Devon Travis at second, Richard Urena at shortstop and Josh Donaldson at third. Kevin Pillar, Dalton Pompey and Anthony Alford are to man the outfield from left to right. The rotation will consist of Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, Conner Greene, Sean Reid-Foley and Drew Hutchison with Roberto Osuna as closer.

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