2003 predictions from Mr. Gloom and Mr. Happy

Tuesday, January 28 2003 @ 01:32 AM EST

Contributed by: Dave Till

I had a little free time today, so I tried figuring out how the Jays' main bats will do this year. Since forecasting is not an exact science, my approach was to compile the Jays' 2003 totals based on a collective worst-case scenario, and then put on my rose-coloured glasses and produce a 2003 best-case scenario. I only did hitting stats, since I'm lazy.

First, the pessimistic view. In Mr. Gloom's universe, Shannon Stewart and Frank Catalanotto go down with injuries, and are replaced by Jayson Werth and DeWayne Wise. Delgado goes into another midsummer funk, but doesn't snap out of it this time. Hudson and Woodward slump, and lose their jobs to Dave Berg and Mike Bordick. Hinske, Phelps and Wells each take a step back. The result is the following set of gloomy 2003 numbers (apologies if they look ugly - I tried to find a fixed font to display in):


Pos Player                       AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO   BA    OBP   SLG   SB  CS 
---+---------------------------+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+
C   Wilson/Myers/Huckaby/Cash    573   41  129  11  1   3   32  24   64  .225  .256  .260   0   0
1B  Delgado                      545   77  135  28  2  29   91  88  136  .247  .352  .466   1   0
2B  Hudson/Berg                  551   52  138  22  6   5   48  19   98  .251  .275  .339   4   4
3B  Hinske                       566   87  147  29  2  17   71  65  122  .259  .336  .408   9   3
SS  Woodward/Bordick             552   45  131  18  1  11   44  33  107  .237  .280  .333   2   2
LF  Stewart/Werth                577   76  158  27  4   6   41  24   60  .273  .302  .366  11   5
CF  Wells                        608   87  155  29  4  17   79  27   85  .255  .287  .400   9   4
RF  Catalanotto/Wise             599   51  158  16  1   8   45  51   57  .264  .322  .334   7   4
DH  Phelps                       565   41  146  24  1  22   58  26   82  .259  .291  .419   0   0

This collection of anemic bats scores a total of 557 runs, which puts them ahead of only Tampa Bay and Kansas City. The pitchers also have a bad year: Halladay is lost for the season early on due to arm problems caused by last year's workload, Lidle struggles, Sturtze is beaten like a drum, and the rest of the starters turn back into pumpkins. The Jays go 55-107. Tosca is fired, Ricciardi is fired, the team institutes cost-cutting measures, and the triumphant cackle of Richard Griffin can be heard throughout the land. Oh, and most of the Middle East is flattened by a war that starts in Iraq and quickly spreads.

Right - enough gloom, already. It's time for Mr. Sunshine. In this scenario, Hinske, Wells, Woodward, Hudson and Phelps all take a step forward, Delgado has his best season since 2000, Catalanotto returns to his pre-injury form, and everybody else contributes a bit. Behold:


Pos Player                       AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO   BA    OBP   SLG   SB  CS 
---+---------------------------+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+
C   Wilson/Myers/Huckaby/Cash    573   51  154  24  2  11   62  34   64  .269  .310  .375   0   0
1B  Delgado                      545  127  167  44  2  46  131 128  116  .307  .438  .644   1   0
2B  Hudson/Berg                  551   82  169  28  6  11   58  34   98  .301  .347  .439   8   4
3B  Hinske                       566  118  165  41  6  31  101  71  112  .292  .370  .549  12   3
SS  Woodward/Bordick             552   75  153  25  1  17   64  38   95  .277  .324  .418   2   1
LF  Stewart                      577  129  175  38  4  12   41  64   60  .303  .376  .445  25   5
CF  Wells                        608  107  179  39  4  31  118  41   85  .295  .339  .525  15   4
RF  Catalanotto/Wise             599  118  186  31  1  14   85  71   57  .311  .384  .402  13   4
DH  Phelps                       565   99  169  34  1  42  128  41   82  .299  .347  .582   0   0

These Jays, with five .300 hitters and double-digit HR totals from everybody in the lineup, wind up scoring a league-leading 906 runs. Halladay goes 24-3 and wins the Cy, thanks to superior run support. Lidle goes 19-10, Sturtze, Walker and Hendrickson provide league-average pitching, and the bullpen is rock-solid. The Jays go 106-56 and leave the Yankees and the Red Sox in the dust. Ricciardi is named GM of the year, Tosca is named manager of the year, the Dome actually starts to fill up by September, and people forget about the Leafs and the Raptors. Oh, and there's no war, and Saddam Hussein agrees to go into voluntary exile, giving Iraq an opportunity to slowly move towards participatory democracy.

The only conclusion I can draw from this echoes the words of wisdom once uttered by that well-known philosopher and pitcher, Joaquin Andujar: In baseball, youneverknow.

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