Felipe Lopez, Star in Waiting?
Sunday, February 02 2003 @ 11:18 AM EST
Contributed by: robertdudek
Felipe Lopez has played the equivalent of about 1 full season of major league baseball. The youngster was dealt in the off-season to the Cincinnati Reds for two above average prospects - which makes 3 shortstops that J.P. has sent packing. This season will tell us a lot about the kind of career we might expect Felipe to have. The main concern this year has to be playing time: Barry Larkin is still in place and will likely get his 300-400 PA, which means that Felipe will compete with Brandon Larson for PT (unless the latter is traded).
Lopez has been compared to Miguel Tejada by some, and to Alex Gonzalez by others (including the author of this article). The end result will likely see him somewhere in between with the bat in his hands. Felipe's future value will depend a lot on whether he can handle shortstop over the long-term. His fate on defence might be similar to one-time organisational mate Tony Batista - shuffled around the infield, eventually to land at third base.
Instead of looking at on-base, slugging percentage and their raw stats, I will focus on assessing the development of their batting skills.
I break down batting into 4 component skills: 1) hitting line drives (and beating out infield singles), estimated by batting average on balls in the field of play [(H-HR)/(AB-HR-K)]; 2) power hitting [(2B+3B+2*HR)/(AB-K+SF)] - see my article on Josh Phelps for a discussion of this measure; 3) drawing walks [(W-IW)/(PA-IW-HBP-SH)]; and 4) avoiding strikeouts [K/(PA-IW)]. Truly similar hitters ought to be close in at least 3 of 4 areas.
Minor League Career
I excluded Miguel's 1994 season in the Dominican Summer League and Felipe's 23 games in St. Kitts and Dunedin in 1998.
Miguel age level PA bifAve power walk whiff k/w
1995 19.10 A-.... 315 .280 .165 .125 .173 1.38
1996 20.10 A+.... 521 .313 .153 .094 .180 1.92
1997 21.10 AA.... 568 .304 .163 .089 .174 1.95
1998 22.10 AA/AAA. 63 .341 .208 .081 .143 1.77
Felipe age level PA bifAve power walk whiff k/w
1999 19.14 A..... 607 .369 .153 .101 .259 2.56
2000 20.14 AA.... 506 .320 .112 .062 .217 3.49
2001 21.14 AAA/AA 478 .332 .205 .075 .247 3.31
2002 22.14 AAA... 241 .391 .140 .118 .154 1.31
Note: the 63 PA in 1998 was a rehab assignment.
It is very helpful that both players were born in the same month (4 years apart). Felipe has had a consistent edge in the line-drive department, while Miguel has had a significant edge in K rate and a slight edge in walks (with power about even). But Felipe has faced stiffer competition at every age - and so I think that most analysts looking at these numbers would give a slight overall edge to Felipe (subject to adjustment for league and park, however).
Breaking it down by 2-year stats:
year age level PA bifAve power walk whiff k/w
95/96 19-20 A-+.... 836 .301 .158 .106 .177 1.68
97/98 21-22 AA/aaa. 631 .308 .168 .088 .171 1.94
99/00 19-20 A/AA... 1113 .345 .133 .084 .240 2.87
01/02 21-22 AAA/AA. 719 .350 .185 .089 .216 2.42
The skills start to come into focus when we aggregate the data a bit. The major differences are the strikeout rate and the "line drive" rate, though Felipe closed the K gap on Miguel when they faced AA/AAA pitching.
The Big Leagues
During the years these two prospects were playing in the high minors, they both saw significant major league playing time. At age 21-22 years, Miguel had only 10 more PA in the majors than Felipe. Let's look at how they adjusted to big league pitching:
year age level PA bifAve power walk whiff k/w
97/98 21-22 AA(aaa). 631 .308 .171 .088 .171 1.94
97/98 21-22 Major... 511 .268 .145 .060 .211 3.50
01/02 21-22 AAA/AA.. 719 .350 .185 .089 .216 2.42
01/02 21-22 Major... 501 .306 .159 .067 .259 3.88
We know much more about the major league parks in Toronto and Oakland than about the minor league parks these players toiled in. Oakland's large foul territory reduces all of these measures (because of the extra pop ups). Felipe's advantage in power shrinks (but does not disappear) if we adjust for park. Skydome generally plays as a very good singles and doubles park, so his real edge in line-drive hitting is not quite as large as the data above suggest. On the other hand, Tejada's whiff rate has to be adjusted upwards too. Both players' K/W ratio skyrocketed in the majors, adding more anecdotal evidence in support of the notion that big league pitchers can find holes in young players' swings (and paint corners) that their AAA/AA brethren can not.
In broad brush strokes, both players retained their basic skill-sets, but Tejada's adjustment to big league ball was actually more "painful". This is understandable, since he skipped AAA and had a troublesome hairline fracture of his right middle finger at the start of 1998 (his first full season). The important point is that Felipe's struggles were not really abnormal, at least if Miguel is any indication. Felipe looks better than I had expected he would. Let's look at what might come next.
The Future
So far so good for Felipe, but let's see how Tejada's skills have developed in his major league career to date:
Miguel age level PA bifAve power walk whiff k/w
97/98 21-22 Major 511 .268 .145 .060 .211 3.50
99/00 23-24 Major 1355 .278 .170 .086 .146 1.69
01/02 25-26 Major 1398 .292 .173 .053 .124 2.33
Miguel Tejada has shown improvement across the board (with the jury still out on his ability to draw walks). Perhaps not coincidentally, he has played everyday for the last 4 years, suffering no significant injuries in that time. He's developed his power and hit more line drives. His progress in the strikeout department has been remarkable - he lowered his K rate by an incredible 31% and a further 15% in comparison to his "baptism" years. He has established a K rate which is much lower than what he achieved in the minors.
Will Felipe be a star? No one can reasonably expect his career path to mirror Tejeda's: Felipe's K rates have always been higher and it will be difficult indeed for him to match Miguel's tremendous improvement in that area. On the other hand, Felipe has excellent power for a middle infielder. Thus, if he can bring his K rate into line with what he did in the high minors, major league success and the big big money should follow.
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