Advance Scout: Red Sox, May 30-June 1

Friday, May 30 2003 @ 01:59 AM EDT

Contributed by: Mike D

OK, since I've got the conch, here's my two cents on the trade that brought BK to Boston and turned Bank One Ballpark into Shea Stadium. (insert groan) Sadly for the Jays, I agree that it's a good trade for Theo.

We shouldn't go overboard in bashing Hillenbrand. For a third baseman, the Hillenbrand of 2002 was a considerably valuable offensive player in a lineup where others get on base regularly. Plus, he offered tremendous durability and some nice positional flexibility that could permit Bill Mueller, instead of Damian Jackson, to spell Todd Walker at second against lefties.

Sabermetric hardliners will always call him an evil, evil man for his lack of plate discipline. But I think an overlooked problem with Hillenbrand is that for a supposed "contact freak," admired by anti-sabermetric types, he strikes out an awful lot: 95 last year. At third, he was error-prone and his defence wasn't great otherwise. Most importantly, his 10-homer pace has squelched any hopes that his power (and Fenway-friendliness) would take off after his respectable 18 dingers last season. All in all, the Red Sox were dealing from a position of strength -- with Freddy Sanchez showing that he's ready (or close to it), and the rest of the infield hitting up a storm lately, Hillenbrand was expendable. Moreover, of all their potential trading partners, Arizona was most dealing from a position of weakness.

Meanwhile, I don't know what Boston's going to try to with their bullpen usage (given their asphyxiating media coverage), but BK seems to be an optimal candidate for the Bill James "Ace Reliever" theorem. The Sox could use his devastating stuff when they need it, and not only should he be effective in key situations, but he can occasionally avoid his residual ninth-inning phobia. (From his public statements, my sense is that it still exists.) One of the criticisms of the non-traditional bullpen deals with the sports psychology of relievers and their "roles"; a variable, high-leverage use of Kim, however, strikes me as better for his psyche in particular.

Oh, yeah -- the series! Huge weekend for the Jays, who should have some decent crowds. Fossum and Wakefield have been struggling, so the Jays should be able to snap out of their offensive mini-funk. Lurch seems to be getting it together, but Doug Davis had better be way sharper tonight against the hard-hitting Boston club than he was against the pressing Yankees on Sunday. I'm finally coming home for the weekend, and I've got tickets for Sunday -- on the off-, off-chance Pedro's up for it, it could be a classic. Use your bench bats, Mr. Tosca!

On to the Advance Scout!

* The Red Sox have eight come-from-behind wins in their final at-bat ... Grady Little on Saturday's 12-3 blowout: "It certainly is more relaxing than the other way we were doing it" ... Boston's muddling along at 8-7 over their last 15 ...
* After a protracted slump to begin his Boston career, my Andujar nominee, David Ortiz, has caught fire ... He's hitting .444 over his last eight games ... Yeah, I know I won't win ...
* But even he's not as hot as Bill Mueller ... But for some 0-for-1 late-inning replacement appearances, he'd have a heck of a hitting streak: He's hit safely in 24 consecutive starts ... How does 35-for-82 (.427) in May sound? ... He's improbably up to 382/441/625 on the season ...Goodbye, Shea ...
* Todd Walker has had a remarkably consistent season ... He's hit in 14 straight (.383), 18 of 19, and in 40 of his 44 starts ...
* Tonight's opponent (and thorn in Coach's side), John Burkett, gloated over his offensive support on Saturday: "I'm pretty good over my career with 12 runs" ... In any event, he held Cleveland to two runs on just two hits over five innings ...
* Johnny Damon on denying the Rocket: "If you can't get up for that, I don't know what will do it...I don't think we want to be on all the classic TV shows with Roger"...
* Casey Fossum hasn't struck out 5 in a game since April 25 ... He's been roughed up for five runs in each of his last two starts -- and his first inning has been his worst ...
* At least he's been consistent: Tim Wakefield has run the gamut from mediocre to half-decent, and no better, this year -- after his breakthrough 2002 ... He's lost some of his ability to harness the knuckler: 29 walks in 63 innings ...
* Trot Nixon has officially cooled off ... He's 8 for his last 45 (.178) ...
* Kevin Millar snapped a 29-game homerless drought with a solo shot against Mariano Rivera in Tuesday's 11-3 defeat ...
* Strange: Manny Ramirez's numbers are in line with his averages over his excellent career -- except for power ... He's slugging just .487, with only seven home runs ... He's always lit up the Jays with power, though ... But maybe not these Jays: Tanyon Sturtze is the only current Jays pitcher off of whom Manny has homered ... Little was critical of Ramirez' ninth-inning wild throw that allowed Hideki Matsui, the winning run, to advance from second to third: "That play put us in a bind" ...
* Nomar Garciaparra knocked in a pair with a single on Wednesday night, one night after his 26-game hitting streak was snapped ...
* Brandon Lyon, "Ace Reliever" pro tempore, walked in the winning run on Wednesday night after the Red Sox fought back to tie the Yankees in the ninth ... Jason Varitek put up a demonstrative argument after he felt that Lyon got robbed of a 2-2 call. It was close ... Little said Lyon was robbed in front of "a countryful of people...on ESPN" ... Walker was encouraged by Boston's comeback against Rivera: "You feel as good as you can after a loss, if you know what I mean" ... Walker also took a potshot against Boston sportswriters: "[I]f it had been against our bullpen-by-committee it would have been a big deal, but if Rivera does it, it's just a bad outing" ...
* What's the only thing worse for a Red Sox fan than losing to the Yankees in their last at-bat? An off-day to dwell upon it! ... Boston fans have been second-guessing Little's decision to (a) leave Lyon in, and (b) walk Soriano and Giambi to set up the force with Posada at the bat ... Sounds like a sound idea to me, though ...
* Last Saturday, Pedro Martinez threw on the side and still felt slight discomfort on his right side ... Hence the DL stint, retroactive to May 16 ... He played catch in the outfield for seven minutes on Wednesday, and said he felt "[b]etter. Much better"... There's a slim chance go Sunday at the Dome; otherwise, there's a chance he'll return Tuesday against the Pirates ... If he can't go Tuesday, Boston is considering starting Robert Person, given his four career home runs as a hitter ...
* Hard-luck Derek Lowe had surgery to remove what he thought was a "large pimple" on his nose, after requiring surgery on his nose for skin cancer last year ... The tissue is undergoing a biopsy ... Lowe is grateful to have caught this sooner than his December growth, which required a long and painful procedure ...
* SARS watch: Tony Cloninger, Red Sox pitching coach, has become the latest baseball personality to avoid travel to Toronto ... His bladder cancer treatments have weakened his immune system ...

Trade Tidbits

* One unnamed baseball executive on Shea Hillenbrand: "[The Red Sox] know he's a first-half hitter" ...
* Among the assurances Theo Epstein sought before closing the deal: Kim wouldn't return to Korea if traded; Kim wouldn't refuse to work out of the bullpen ...
* Kim is seen as important insurance, given the expiration of the contracts of both Pedro and Lowe after the '04 season ...
* Little on Kim: "We feel like he'll be a starter in the future...But for us to be the best club we can be when Pedro comes back, he'll surely be working in the back of our bullpen" ...
* Scouts say that the Cubs refused to trade for Hillenbrand because they are holding out hope for Mike Lowell ... Apparently, the Cubs had Hillenbrand as trade option #4, after Lowell, Adrian Beltre and Aaron Boone ...
* Highly-touted Freddy Sanchez will back up Walker at second, and Mueller will play every day at third ... Sanchez is hitting .391 at Pawtucket, with an outstanding .481 on-base percentage ...
* Shea also played some first ... Ortiz and Millar will split time at first unless and until Jeremy Giambi starts playing consistent ball ...

Probable Batting Orders

vs. LH

8 Damon
4 Walker/Sanchez
6 Garciaparra
7 Ramirez
9 Millar
3 Ortiz
5 Mueller
DH Giambi
2 Varitek

vs. RH

8 Damon
4 Walker
6 Garciaparra
7 Ramirez
DH/3 Millar
3/DH Ortiz
5 Mueller
9 Nixon
2 Varitek/Mirabelli

Pitching Probables

Friday: RH Burkett vs. Davis
Saturday: LH Fossum vs. Hendrickson
Sunday: RH Wakefield vs. Halladay

Bullpen Usage

Long: Mendoza R, White L
Short: Person R, Seanez R
Setup: Timlin R, Embree L
Closer: Lyon R, Kim R (?)

3 comments



https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20030530015948999