Transplanted from the Open-Mike thread, here's Jonny German's thoughts on Roy Halladay, because we here at Batter's Box are all about value. And beer. And making sure a good post gets its due.
Well, Mick emphatically insisted he wouldn't, and was met with token resistance (a nod to Spicol), but you'd have to say at this point that our man Roy stands a good chance of winning the Cy Young. He could meet one of Mick's criteria, "Won a ridiculous (23+) number of games", but as cautioned he may not be the only one to do so. The key is his big winning streak, which got him into the (inter)national spotlight and took away the familiarity advantage of guys like Pedro, Mussina, Mulder, Zito, Hudson.
Looking first at the guys who have won more than 10 games, since we're talking about the Cy Young and not "the best pitcher".
Pitcher IP W ERA WHIP K/BB
Roy 175 15 3.29 1.10 5.52
Ponson 148 14 3.77 1.28 2.33
Mulder 160.1 14 3.03 1.15 3.26
Moyer 138.2 14 3.50 1.24 1.96
Loaiza 143.2 13 2.19 1.06 3.48
Pettit. 138.2 13 4.41 1.33 3.70
Pineir. 144.2 12 3.17 1.20 1.88
Ortiz 127.2 12 4.44 1.45 1.53
Wells 139.2 12 3.80 1.20 6.55
Lidle 144 11 5.81 1.44 2.02
Meche 130.2 11 3.86 1.29 2.12
Lowe 134 11 4.84 1.48 1.61
Mussina 138.2 11 3.38 1.06 5.08
I'm going to throw out Pettite, Pineiro, Ortiz, Lidle, Meche, and Lowe without further explanation. If anyone wants to make a case for any of them, go right ahead. I feel the numbers above are enough to say that they don't have a realistic shot of getting attention from the voters. A closer look at the remaining 7 candidates:
Pitcher W L CG IP ERA WHIP BAA HR/9 BB/9 K/9 K/BB
Roy 15 2 2 175 3.29 1.10 0.248 1.08 1.18 6.53 5.52
Ponson 14 6 4 148 3.77 1.28 0.258 0.61 2.61 6.08 2.33
Mulder 14 7 7 160.1 3.03 1.15 0.251 0.73 1.91 6.24 3.26
Moyer 14 5 0 138.2 3.50 1.24 0.243 0.85 2.93 5.73 1.96
Loaiza 13 5 1 143.2 2.19 1.06 0.226 0.69 2.07 7.23 3.48
Wells 12 3 3 139.2 3.80 1.20 0.284 1.16 0.71 4.66 6.55
Mussina 11 6 0 138.2 3.38 1.06 0.234 0.98 1.69 8.60 5.08
I can't think of a good reason to prefer Ponson over Roy, and there's less reason to believe that he'll keep up the pace over the rest of the season.
Mulder looks to be the strongest competition, with the aura of being part of the Big 3, an improved offense behind him over the rest of the season, and a good shot at the playoffs. Roy will have to maintain his leads in BB/9, K/9, and K/BB, and will have to continue to throw a ton of innings. Perhaps more so than any other team, innings pitched are the key to Wins as a Blue Jay starter. The offense will surely back you up, and the bullpen will surely let you down.
Moyer is an un-sexy pitcher with an unimpressive K/BB, and Roy trounces him in IP, K, K/BB, and BB/9. At the risk of contradicting myself, I'll postulate that he could be hurt by vote splitting with Meche and Pineiro.
Count me among those who still expect Loaiza to come down somewhat, but if he doesn't he could be a problem; he has been better than Roy in several ways, and has gotten a lot of media attention. While the attention will help, I can also see it hurting: the voters, like the rest of us, will struggle with the notion of Loaiza being a great pitcher. Roy's IP advantage should be substantial by the end of the season.
If Wells stays healthy over the remainder of the season, he could be a contender, but with him that's a big if. Supposing he does ward off the obesity and other ailments for the rest of the season, expect vote-splitting with...
Mussina, a scary candidate. He has great rate stats, a solid career with no Cy Youngs, plays in New York, will make the playoffs. Making up 4 wins over the rest of the season will be difficult for him, and it's safe to postulate that he'll end up with 10 or more losses.
If the season ended today it would come down to Halladay or Mulder, Halladay's winning percentage or Mulder's 7 CG, Halladay's winning streak or Mulder's status as a Big 3 starter.