Division Series: Saturday, October 4th, 2003

Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 04:06 AM EDT

Contributed by: robertdudek

Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs, 4 PM ET (Game 4)

Russ Ortiz against Matt Clement is the most favourable pitching match-up for the Braves in this series. Even if the Braves win, Mike Hampton against Kerry Wood isn't a matchup Bobby Cox should like. When the Braves chose Hampton to start game 2 instead of Maddux, it decreased the number of potential righthanded starters the Cubs will have to face this series.

Matt Clement (2002/2003)
versus AB H HR TB W K HBP SB CS OBP SLG K pct W pct
right 798 168 21 268 66 221 16 8 8 .284 .336 .251 .076
left 700 163 19 261 98 165 4 4 2 .330 .373 .206 .123

Matt Clement (2002/2003)
versus	AB	H	HR	TB	W	K	HBP	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	K pct	W pct
right	798	168	21	268	66	221	16	8	8	.284	.336	.251	.076
left	700	163	19	261	98	165	4	4	2	.330	.373	.206	.123

Matt Clement is a solid pitcher, but doesn't have quite the stuff the other 3 have. That difference might be just enough to allow the Braves hitters, particulaly Larry (Chipper) Jones to make solid contact.

Atlanta Braves versus Righthanded Pitchers (2002/2003)
Player	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	W	K	SB	CS	HBP	avg	obp	slg
R Furcal	1031	299	46	16	17	76	148	45	15	6	.290	.342	.415
M Giles	595	181	54	3	20	65	94	13	5	11	.304	.383	.506
L Jones	879	277	57	3	47	162	139	7	4	3	.315	.423	.547
J Lopez	639	179	31	3	41	47	119	0	2	11	.280	.340	.531
A Jones	943	259	50	2	58	104	214	11	4	14	.275	.355	.516
J Franco	179	54	8	1	5	17	43	3	0	0	.302	.362	.441
V Castilla	885	223	45	5	27	34	134	5	3	10	.252	.287	.406
D Bragg	300	74	18	2	3	27	75	6	2	1	.247	.311	.350
pitcher

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

Gary Sheffield's hand must have swollen up overnight. He's out of the starting lineup and that's a huge blow to the Braves chances. Julio Franco starts his first game, which means one fewer lefthanded batter.

The Braves offence has to break out this game. Two of the four division series pitted great offenses against great pitching; right now it looks like the pitching will go 2 and 0.

Russ Ortiz (2002/2003)
versus	AB	H	HR	TB	W	K	HBP	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	K pct	W pct
right	822	173	21	281	92	167	8	19	9	.296	.342	.181	.101
left	763	195	11	277	104	119	0	10	3	.345	.363	.137	.120

Ortiz had an off game in the opener and I think he'll be much more effective this time around. In game 1, he faced 27 batters, struck out 7 and walked 3, Of the 17 balls in play, 3 became double plays, but 8 others fell in for hits. I don't imagine that that will repeat itself. He'll be the first starter to work on 3 days' rest in the playoffs.

Chicago Cubs versus Righthanded Pitchers (2002/2003)
Player	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	W	K	SB	CS	HBP	avg	obp	slg
K Lofton	835	241	49	12	22	101	95	53	14	1	.289	.366	.455
M Grudzielanek	807	232	45	1	9	27	125	9	2	12	.287	.320	.379
S Sosa	867	232	35	1	71	111	240	2	0	8	.268	.356	.556
M Alou	807	210	41	0	29	84	104	10	1	6	.260	.334	.419
A Ramirez	868	216	45	2	26	56	153	4	2	16	.249	.306	.395
E Karros	647	165	25	1	19	37	103	3	2	5	.255	.300	.385
A Gonzalez	811	193	49	3	29	62	211	4	4	9	.238	.299	.413
P Bako	367	88	18	4	4	39	80	0	3	1	.240	.314	.343
pitcher

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

Would it be Simon or Karros at first base? Karros doesn't hit righthanders well but got 2 hits in game 1; Simon's defence is significantly worse and BAker may decide to go with run prevention, counting on his bullpen to win the game late. Not starting Simon allows Baker to use him as a pinch-hitter in a possible game-breaking sitaution.

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