If we think of the Blue Jays’ farm system in 2003 as a family, then maybe we can assign personalities to each of them. Syracuse is the underachieving eldest child, with some strong individual talents but otherwise saddled with a lot of recycled ideas and habits past their prime. New Haven is the dutiful, keener second child, eager to oust the big brother in the parents’ affections with spectacular results (also, he’s moving out at the end of the year). Dunedin is the quiet, studious one, not producing a lot of fireworks and passing on most of what she develops to New Haven. Auburn, the second-youngest, is the prodigy who burst onto the family scene and got the attention of the entire neighbourhood with her pyrotechnics. And Pulaski, the newest arrival, started quietly but really livened up towards the end of the year, making her parents think there’s another Auburn there just about to develop.
And then there’s Charleston. Poor, black-sheep Charleston, least-favourite third son who got stuck with most of the family’s least attractive talents.
He lives and works in a tough neighbourhood, where what little skill he has is usually obscured. His results have been almost uniformly poor; other than a few bright sparks (quickly claimed by big sister Dunedin) and some workmanlike skills, he has little to show for his efforts. Show some sympathy for poor, neglected Charleston: it’s not easy being the doofus in a high-achieving household.
The Alley-Cats were the least productive of the Blue Jays’ farm teams in 2003. While the best young talent, like Aaron Hill and Jamie Vermilyea, zoomed past them straight to Dunedin, Charleston struggled with a roster composed mostly of younger players still adapting to the pro game and older guys prematurely on the downhill side of their careers. Most of the really exciting talent that began the year here (Brandon League, Vince Perkins) ended it in Dunedin. As a result, the Alley-Cats’ review is one of the shorter ones, and few of the prospects reviewed here would be considered Grade-A. But that will change by next year: with so much raw talent coming up from short-season ball, Dunedin won’t be able to handle it all, and a certain amount of overflow should arrive in the South Atlantic League next year. So things are looking up, even for the most star-crossed franchise of the lot.
DJ Hanson, RHP, 23
10-10, 2.54, 25 GS, 138 IP, 110 H, 56 BB, 113 K, 4 HR, 21.3% KBF
So what do we have here? DJ Hanson was a high-school draftee in 1999 (6th round) who spent the next two seasons in Medicine Hat getting knocked around like a pinball, natch. In 2001, he wrecked his knee in a spring training collision, costing him the whole year and part of the next. He returned briefly in the latter part of 2002 and pitched brilliantly for Auburn, though he did have arthroscopic surgery on his knee after the season to clean up scar tissue. The Jays bumped him up to Charleston to start 2003 and expected great things. They didn’t really come: a season of inconsistency and control problems left DJ with this line entering August: 6-10, 3.27, 104 IP, 91 H, 50 BB, 73 K, 16.7% KBF. As you can tell, that differs markedly from his final numbers, above. The reason is that in August, everything clicked: Hanson went 4-0, 0.27, 33 IP, 19 H, 6 BB, 40 K. The hits plummeted, the control improved markedly and the strikeouts began pouring out. He finished 2003 as the best starter in Charleston and presents a great deal of promise for next year.
Despite his slight stature (5’11”, 175 lbs), Hanson is a power pitcher: his fastball is consistently around 92-94 and touches 96, and complements a hard-breaking curve that comes in at around 85. The comparisons to Dustin McGowan have some merit: both high-school draftees, both with a fastball-curve one-two punch, both coming into their own in the Sally. Hanson’s stuff is a little less overpowering, and he’s still playing catch-up from his knee injury. Also, at 23, he’s up against less formidable opposition and a year older than McGowan. It seems like 2004 will be DJ’s make-or-break year; he’ll probably start at Dunedin, though it’s possible the organization may challenge him with a promotion all the way to Manchester. He’ll be facing his toughest competition yet, but if he meets the challenge and produces, then he can be legitimately grouped with McGowan and Bush as future major-league rotation stalwarts. Keep your fingers crossed.
Rodney Medina, OF, 21
452 AB, .283/.349/.442, 23 2B, 8 3B, 11 HR, 45 RBI, 45 BB, 44 K, 6 SB, 4 CS
When the Blue Jays select their organizational MVPs, they usually do so with a purpose in mind: approving of and encouraging the skills displayed by the winners. Players who might not otherwise seem to have had remarkable seasons are often, upon closer inspection, on-base machines or control artists on the mound. In the case of Medina, named Charleston MVP in 2003, there admittedly wasn’t much competition for the honour. But Rodney displayed a remarkably good batting eye again in 2003, walking more times than he struck out – no easy feat, when you’re leading the team in homers – and sports a career 163/163 BB/K rate. Now in his fifth professional season, Medina was signed as a free agent out of Venezuela in 1998 and has been inching up the organizational ladder ever since.
Rodney does most things very well: he walks, he has extra-base power, and he has good raw speed that hasn’t yet translated into baserunning success. In 2003, he set personal highs in doubles, triples, homers and walks; granted, it was his second season in the Sally, but he won’t turn 22 till Friday and still has time to hone what appears to be a very good skill set. I’m not entirely sure when Medina will have to be placed on the 40-man roster – the Venezuelan and Dominican Summer Leagues, where he spent two years, cloud the issue, as does his age when he signed – but when the day comes, I’d advise the Jays to find some roster space for him. I’m not sure what the club has in Medina, exactly, but it sure looks good.
Ramon Mora, RHP, 22
4-4, 4 Sv, 3.92, 36 G, 6 GS, 78 IP, 85 H, 28 BB, 73 K, 7 HR, 21.4% KBF
I’d classify Mora as just a fringe prospect at this point. Though he’s 22, this is his sixth year in the organization, and only 2001 (at Auburn) and this season have been particularly noteworthy. The BB/K and K/IP are just fine, but that’s a lot of hits allowed for someone who you’d like to think was dominating opposing batters, especially when most of his outings are in relief. Granted, this is his first season in which he’s allowed more hits than IP, but it’s also his first-year in full-season ball, and those two may very well be connected. And in six years, he’s never cracked 80 innings pitched. Pass.
Miguel Negron, OF, 21
109 AB, .303/.330/.422, 13 R, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 16 K, 6 SB, 2 CS
He may have run out of time. The bargain first-rounder in 2000 was slowly starting to put it together on his second tour of duty in the Sally, even though he was one of the youngest players on the squad. He was finally cracking the .300 barrier and showing better power than he ever had. But he injured his hamstring in early July and missed the rest of the year (though he’s now sufficiently recovered to be in the Instructional League). And now the Blue Jays face a decision: Negron can become a six-year free agent unless the team adds him to their 40-man roster. I don’t think they will. For all his improvements in other areas, Negron simply couldn’t master the strike zone: an awful 2/16 BB/K rate in his first 109 at-bats. That’s just not going to do it in this organization, and I can’t see JP using the roster spot on a long shot like this.
Negron and Alexis Rios will always be bound together in Jays’ fans consciousness, because Tim Wilken was forced by Interbrew’s accountants to overdraft each one in the first rounds of ’99 and ‘00. But the comparisons were never really fair, and not just physically (Rios’ 6’6”, 200 to Negron’s 6’2”, 170, and 1 1/2 years older to boot). Rios was always considered the more talented of the two, and his ability to adapt to and accept the Jays’ new teaching philosophies turned him from a bust to a star prospect virtually overnight. Negron had bigger problems: he won few friends in his early days in the organization and was not very coachable; his utter lack of production didn’t help matters any.
He finally started to get it in 2002, and was rewarded with his first decent season (.255/.312/.336, 35/77 in 420 AB being decent only in the purely relativistic sense), and seemed to be making progress (with the bat if not with the strike zone) this year. Had he not been injured, things might have turned out differently; as it stands, another team surely will take a flyer on a young centrefielder with such raw talent and excellent defensive skills. If Negron ever does figure out the strike zone, he may yet grow into something remarkable. Consider one final comparison between the bargain boys:
Rios, 20 (Charleston): .263/.296/.354, 25/59 in 480 AB
Negron, 20 (Charleston): .255/.312/.336, 35/77 in 420 AB
Rios, 21 (Dunedin): .305/.344/.408, 27/55, 456 AB
Negron, 21 (Charleston): .303/.330/.422, 2/16, 109 AB
Rios, 22 (New Haven): .352/.401/.521, 39/85, 514 AB
Negron, 22: ?
Sandy Nin, RHP, 23
7-8, 2.89, 23 GS, 131 IP, 124 H, 19 BB, 87 K, 4 HR, 16.5% KBF
Really interesting. This was only Nin’s second season in North America; his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2001 produced an astonishing line of 11-1, 1.12, 97 IP, 70 H, 19 BB, 105 K (though at 21, he was older than much of the competition). He did very well at Auburn last year, and his Sally debut was also impressive. Sandy seemed to wear down as the season went on; he’s a slight 6’0”, 185 lbs, and he’d never racked 100 IP in a season before 2003. His KBF, which was in the very high teens earlier in the summer, fell to an unimpressive 16.5% by season’s end (though in a late-season start at New Haven, Nin delivered a sharp 7 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 9 K, 1 HR outing). And along with Felix Romero, he delivered the organization’s sole no-hitter this year, August 24 against Greensboro.
There’s a lot to like here: Nin’s fastball is consistently in the low 90s, and he brings a power slider and a decent change-up to the mound as well. His trademark is control: in 324 pro innings, he now sports a 50/278 BB/K ratio. He’s older than your average Dominican free-agent signing, so the time has come to see what he can do against better competition. He will certainly start 2004 at Dunedin, and if things go well there, the Jays might push him up to Manchester for half a season to see what he can do. And if he adds a few more pounds, he might have greater stamina and maybe a little extra oomph on the fastball too. Keep an eye on him.
Justin Owens, DH, 23
272 AB, .236/.348/.338, 41 R, 16 2B, 5 3B, 4 HR, 52 RBI, 62 BB, 106 K, 6 SB, 3 CS
Check this out:
Player A, 23, Dunedin
475 AB, .301/.433/.423, 18 2B, 5 3B, 10 HR, 86 BB, 114 K
Comparing Player A to Justin Owens, you’d probably say that A was ahead in making contact, displaying home-run power and advancement, having achieved all this in the Florida State League. Otherwise, they’re pretty close, right? Excellent batting eye, too many K’s, not much overall pop. Well, Player A is Shawn Fagan, currently stalled out in the Eastern League, and at this point, I’d say Owens would be lucky to have Fagan’s career.
Owens is a lefty who showed a good batting eye, excellent speed and decent pop at remote Coastal Carolina University; the Jays took him in the 34th round of the 2002 draft. He was the MVP at Auburn last year, where he posted a fine .293/.372/.417 line, but he ran into a brick wall in the Sally. Taking into account that this was only his second pro season and that some kind of malaise seemed to affect every Charleston batter except Funky Rod Medina, I’m willing to give Owens another chance; but at 24, his days as an actual prospect are swiftly drawing to a close.
Ismael Ramirez, RHP, 22
6-5, 3.02, 24 G, 22 GS, 119 IP, 110 H, 31 BB, 70 K, 6 HR, 14.1% KBF
The jury’s still out, but they’re ordering dessert, which doesn’t look good for the defendant. Ramirez is in his fifth year with the Blue Jays organization, having spent the first two in the Venezuelan Summer League and the third in the DSL (I really have to find out more about these circuits; they sound incredibly interesting). Even then, he spent almost two years in Medicine Hat, though in 2002 he raced up the ladder and made 27 IP worth of appearances in Charleston and Auburn. In 2003, he made his full-season debut, and like Sandy Nin, he slowed down as the season wore on to more than a hundred innings, allowing more hits and seeing his ERA rise. Interestingly, though, his BB/K rate and his KBF both improved throughout the course of the season. I’m not sure what to make of that, other than that Ismael was around the plate more often in the second half, but I’m going to decide it’s a good thing. The organization has been very patient with Ramirez thus far, but at 23 next spring, they may need to start pushing him harder; he may be in the Dunedin pen come April.
Felix Romero, RHP, 23
2-3, 3.89, 42 G, 0 GS, 69 IP, 63 H, 25 BB, 77 K, 2 HR, 25.8% KBF
Felix Romero is one of 138 past and present pro ballplayers from San Pedro de Macoris in the Dominican Republic (pop. 124,000). To put that in perspective, there have been 214 pro ballplayers from Los Angeles, California (pop. 3,690,000, not including the suburbs and outlying areas). Think about that while I tell you that Romero is a fairly interesting reliever with a fastball that hovers around 90, with a slider and change-up to boot. He’s struck out more than a batter per inning since his arrival in North America three years ago (he spent three years in the DSL, having signed at 18). And while his command is also quite good (49/144 in 136 IP those last three seasons), he gives up a hit per inning too. Romero is a little old and little too experienced to be tootling around in Low-A ball much longer; I sense a promotion in the wings for him, too. Anyone who can post those K numbers deserves a long look.
Tracy Thorpe, RHP, 22
1-2, 6.68, 20 G, 1 GS, 32 IP, 37 H, 22 BB, 21 K, 5 HR, 13.4% KBF
Things just haven’t broken right for Thorpe, an 11th-round pick out of a Florida high school in 2000. He struggled in his first couple of years, as high school pitchers invariably do, but he was showing off a fastball that hung out in the mid-90s and was working on a change and a curveball as well. In 2002, his second tour of duty in Charleston to that point, Thorpe was starting to put it together (103 IP, 96 H, 31 BB, 70 K) when arm soreness turned out to be a labrum torn in two places. He missed the remainder of 2002 following shoulder surgery and was expected to miss ’03 as well, but he rehabbed aggressively and returned to the Alley-Cats in July. But his arm still wasn’t back to full strength, and he could barely crack 90 on the radar; worse, he developed stiffness elsewhere in his arm and suffered shoulder tendonitis. In short, as you can see, it was a hellish year for Thorpe, who has even pondered going back into football (he was a highly regarded quarterback in high school; at 6’4”, 250 lbs, he drew more than one comparison to Daunte Culpepper).
But all is not lost. The velocity did return over the course of the season, and should be back to normal next spring. And to compensate for the missing speed, Thorpe worked hard on his change-up, which is now close to becoming a plus pitch for him. He planned to spend the off-season strengthening his arm and, if possible, to throw a little winter ball as well. Tracy would be an asset to the organization if he could find his form again; from all accounts, he’s an outstanding individual, performing tons of community work with kids during the season and giving pointers to young recruits on his high school football team. It generally takes at least a year after surgery before a pitcher regains his touch and his stuff, so hold out some hope for Tracy Thorpe.
John Wesley, RHP, 22
2-5, 3.48, 8 GS, 41 IP, 38 H, 13 BB, 32 K, 2 HR, 18.9% KBF
Like Thorpe, Wesley is a big, big man ((6’6”, 260 lb) with injury problems. Wesley displayed great stuff last summer after signing as an undrafted free-agent, ripping up the Pioneer League for Medicine Hat with a mid-90s fastball and a useful curveball/splitter combination. But he was old for the league then, and the Sally found him much more touchable. It didn’t help that he showed up at spring training tipping the scales at around 265 pounds, or more than 30 pounds heavier than when he finished his rookie season. To make matters far worse, he tore up his arm and underwent Tommy John surgery in late August. Even assuming he can rehab both his arm and his body, there’s the question of whether he’ll be effective, not to mention his steadily advancing age. Wesley belongs on the back, back burner of Jays pitching prospects right now; you might not see his name again.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20031015092437999