Fun with ZiPS

Sunday, January 18 2004 @ 03:59 AM EST

Contributed by: Lucas

Truth be told, I'm not all that big on these projection systems. For instance, I buy Baseball Prospectus' book every year and read it cover-to-cover, but I rarely even look at more than a couple dozen of their player projections. For some reason it just doesn't do it for me.

I did, however, read BPro's recent article on their PECOTA projection system and how it compared to, among other systems, Baseball Primer's ZiPS. After reading the BPro article, I looked at some of the ZiPS projections for this year and then thought "hey, this could be my first ever entry at the Batter's Box!"

So here it is...

Your 2004 Toronto Blue Jays:



                          AVG      OBP      SLG
 C   Greg Myers          .278     .347     .460
1B   Carlos Delgado      .288     .421     .561
2B   Orlando Hudson      .291     .353     .430
SS   Chris Woodward      .270     .331     .435
3B   Eric Hinske         .276     .366     .485
LF   Frank Catalanotto   .303     .364     .473
CF   Vernon Wells        .316     .361     .523
RF   Reed Johnson        .301     .359     .438
DH   Josh Phelps         .291     .375     .545



To be blunt, that is one scary-ass lineup, and none of those projections look particularly unlikely to me. I'm not sure where everyone would bat, but the Cat/Hinske/Wells/Delgado/Phelps portion of the lineup is downright nasty. Of course, you all knew the offense was good.

(BTW, I just traded Greg Myers away in my Diamond-Mind keeper league, so I'm going to be very upset if he goes .278/.347/.460 this year)


                          IP      ERA
SP   Roy Halladay        234     3.31
SP   Miguel Batista      176     4.14
SP   Ted Lilly           153     3.94
SP   Pat Hentgen         127     5.39
SP   Josh Towers         169     4.69
RP   Kerry Ligtenberg     59     4.12
RP   Justin Speier        72     4.13
RP   Aquilino Lopez       84     4.07
RP   Terry Adams         133     3.52
RP   V. de los Santos     51     4.94
RP   Jason Kershner      109     5.12
RP   Bruce Chen          123     5.41



Setting aside the fact that Kershner isn't going to throw 109 innings, those 12 guys total up to 1,490 innings with a 4.31 ERA. The 40 or so innings that Kershner won't throw will probably be made up by Hentgen (I would think), who has a very similar projected ERA. Other than that, most of the IP totals look reasonable, with Lilly and Batista likely throwing 20-40 more than their projections, and Terry Adams and Bruce Chen throwing about that many less than their's.

So, here's my big question...

The Fighting Jays had a 4.69 team ERA last season, which ranked ninth in the American League. Let's say their 2004 ERA is exactly what the projected totals suggest, 4.31. Is that 0.38 improvement enough to push them from 86 wins into the low-90s?

In addition to that, does everyone here expect the offense to remain the same (or improve) in 2004? They scored 894 runs last year and if those projections hold up, I would think a similar total is likely. But let's say the offense goes down to like 850 runs (which would have been good for 4th in the AL last year), is the pitching-staff going to improve enough to make up for that and still get them to 90+ wins?

I think it's likely the Red Sox and Yankees will both score 925+ runs in 2004, so I think if the Jays are going to do what many people here (including myself) think, which is surprise some people and seriously compete for a playoff spot, they are going to have to do one of two things:

1) The offense will have to actually be significantly (25+ runs) better than last year
or
2) The pitching-staff is going to have to be better than even the above projections suggest.

I say the chances of #1 happening are fairly slim, simply because of how good the offense was last year. The chances of #2 happening? I'm not so sure...

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