In Friday's Ask BA, Jim Callis links to a piece he wrote about John Olerud back in 1989. Although I don't have any particular comments to make about it, I thought it was a very good article; besides, it's been a rather slow weekend around the Box, so why not start a thread?
The Blue Jays, their fans, and the Toronto media have a peculiar history of blaming the team's failures on their best players. Perhaps I'm exaggerating the peculiarity of this behaviour; after all, Ted Williams was routinely made the scapegoat for the Red Sox' shortcomings in the 1940s and 1950s, and Dan Duquette actually went on the record as saying that Roger Clemens was "in the twilight of his career" in 1996. However, the Red Sox at least had the sense to keep Williams around, if not Clemens. For me, one of the lowest points in Blue Jays history was the departure of Roberto Alomar in 1995. Alomar certainly contributed his share to the atmosphere of ill-will, but I don't think the Jays tried to mend fences as diligently as they might have done.
John Olerud's departure after the 1996 season was equally nonsensical. The worst thing Olerud ever did for himself in Toronto was hit .363/.473/.599 in 1993; after that, his usual .290/.390/.450 would never be given the respect it deserved. From 1990 through 1996, Olerud posted EqAs of .290, .285, .300, .364, .296, .285, and .287 and was a total of 55 fielding runs above average, yet he never accumulated 500 AB in a season other than 1993, and was below 400 AB three times. Before leaving Toronto, he averaged 500 PA per season (excluding 1993); since the trade to New York, he's averaged 669. If we extrapolate his 1990-1992 and 1994-1996 numbers to full-time play, he ends up with 238 extra hits, putting him at 2314 through age 34. According to the Favorite Toy, those 238 extra hits would boost his chance of reaching 3000 from 11% to 32%. (Disclaimer: The Favorite Toy is just that, and Olerud sat a lot of games against lefties in Toronto, so these numbers shouldn't be taken too seriously.)
Olerud isn't anywhere close to a Hall of Fame career, but if his 2003 decline turns out to be a blip and he staggers to 3000 hits, he just might get elected. Should that extremely unlikely event come to pass, he'll be the first player with a Hall of Fame helmet rather than a cap, but it most likely won't have a Fighting Jay on the front. Which is something of a shame.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20040118052133999