Having been born in 1983, I became a baseball fan just in time to watch the Minnesota Twins win the World Series in 1991. It was, in fact, the very first World Series I remember watching. It was thrilling to see my team win, but certainly not quite as thrilling as if, say, I had been a fan of theirs for more than six months.
After watching Jack Morris beat the Braves in Game Seven, I was under the impression that this sort of thing happened all the time for Twins fans. After all, people kept telling me that the Twins had done the exact same thing just four years earlier. So I was eight years old, my team had two championships in the last four years, and I was ready for a steady wave of October baseball.
And then the team stunk for a good decade or so. They went 90-72 in 1992, missing the playoffs by six games. Then they failed to win more than half their games in a season for the next eight years. Eight long years. My “age” 10-17 seasons. Not a single decent team, but plenty of Scott Stahoviak, Frankie Rodriguez, Pat Meares, Rich Becker, Ron Coomer, Rich Robertson and Pat Mahomes.
Some years they’d go with prospects, and watch them fail. Other years they’d sign a bunch of veterans, and watch them fail. Sometimes it was a mix of both, and we’d watch them fail together. Oh, and we’d get to watch all this in the monstrosity that is the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome. Good times all around.
And then suddenly, almost without warning, the Twins became a good team again. They led the AL Central division for huge chunks of 2001, before eventually fading horribly down the stretch and finishing six games behind the last good Cleveland team. Still, the Twins finished 85-77, good for their most wins since I was nine.
Then the next year, they broke through to win their first division title since that 1991 championship team. They finished 94-77 and, thanks to Cleveland rebuilding, were able to win the division by 13.5 games over the Chicago White Sox.
Minnesota won their second straight AL Central title last year. They had to fight a lot more for it than they had the year before and they actually spent much of the year in second or third place, but they finished 90-72, four games ahead of Chicago and seven games ahead of Kansas City.
It’s been a lot of fun rooting for the Twins lately. For one thing, they don’t always lose. For another thing, they actually have some decent players, instead of the collection of replacement-level that called themselves a major league baseball team in years past. In addition to that, the team has actually been on national TV occasionally. And sometimes they have articles written about them in magazines and on websites. Plus, when someone wants to make a joke about a bad baseball team, they don’t use the Twins (as an added bonus, they often use the Brewers).
So here’s the question on this Twins fan’s mind: Can this team keep winning or was this just a fun little 3-year run, before we head back to the hell that was 1993-2000?
The short answer, I think, is that this team can definitely keep winning in 2004. The number one thing in their favor is the fact that they play in the worst division in baseball. I was asked the other day to rank each MLB team, 1-30, heading into this season, and I didn’t have a single AL Central team in my top dozen. 87 wins would have won the division last year and I don’t see any real reason to believe it is going to take more this time around.
The Royals look to me like the biggest threat to the Twins in 2004. They came out of nowhere in 2003 and started the season 17-7. They then went 66-72 for the rest of the year, finishing at 83-79. Had the Royals kept the exact same team as they had in 2003, I would have pegged them for a slight drop-off in 2004. But they haven’t, they’ve actually added some very solid pieces like Juan Gonzalez, Matt Stairs, Scott Sullivan, Benito Santiago and Tony Graffanino, while not losing much at all. They should be, at the very least, as good as they were in 2003, and potentially 3-5 games better.
Meanwhile, the White Sox won 87 games in 2003 and appear to me to be worse heading into 2004. They lost key contributors like Bartolo Colon, Tom Gordon, Scott Sullivan, Carl Everett, Roberto Alomar and Tony Graffanino, while not adding anything beyond a couple of nice relievers like Cliff Politte and Shingo Takatsu.
The Indians have a bright future, but I just don’t see them being able to win 17-20 more games than they did in 2003, and the Tigers certainly are not going to double their win total (yes, they were that bad, doubling it would give them 86 wins).
So, I guess the more immediate question for the Twins is how much worse are they from last season? Last year’s team won 90 games and here are the guys that are gone from that team:
A.J. Pierzynski
Eddie Guardado
Latroy Hawkins
Kenny Rogers
Dustan Mohr
Rick Reed
Denny Hocking
Chris Gomez
They also lost Eric Milton, but the fact is that he threw 17 innings in 2003, so his loss doesn’t really make the team any worse than they were last season. Also, Joe Mays is out for most of 2004 after having Tommy John surgery, but he was horrendous in 2003 anyway.
Of those eight guys I listed above, Mohr (.250/.314/.399 in 387 PA), Reed (5.07 ERA in 135 IP), Hocking (.239/.291/.362 in 209 PA) and Gomez (.251/.279/.353 in 185 PA) don’t seem to me like they will be very difficult to replace. That leaves Pierzynski, Guardado, Hawkins and Rogers – or in other words, a starting catcher, two late-inning relievers, and a starting pitcher.
Let’s take those in order…
Pierzynski had been Minnesota’s starting catcher for the last three years, hitting .301/.340/.449 while playing in 381 games. He will be replaced by Joe Mauer. Mauer, who was the #1 pick in the 2001 draft, hit .335/.395/.412 at Single-A and .341/.400/.453 at Double-A last season, and is a career .330/.406/.423 minor league hitter in 277 games. He is considered by many (myself included) to be the top prospect in all of baseball.
It is unlikely Mauer will be able to match Pierzynski’s offensive production from last season (.312/.360/.464) as a 21-year-old rookie, but exactly how big will the drop-off be?
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system has Mauer at .250/.306/.346. Baseball Primer’s ZiPs system has Mauer projected at .311/.377/.387. Rotoworld has Mauer projected at .288/.338/.395. InsiderBaseball.com’s projection system pegs him at .298/.361/.422. Mauer’s Major League Equivalency (MLE) for his time at Double-A last year comes out to .319/.367/.420.
That is a wide range of numbers, but any of those besides the PECOTA projection would probably be more than acceptable to the Twins. I think it is reasonable to expect a batting average in the .270-.290 range, an OBP somewhere around .330-.360 and a slugging percentage hovering around .400. Again, that would make him a less valuable offensive player than Pierzynski, but the difference wouldn’t be massive. And, of course, there is a chance that Mauer has an incredible rookie season, in which case Pierzynski’s 2003 production is certainly within reach.
Also, Mauer is considered excellent defensively, while Pierzynski was likely average, at best. The impact of catcher defense is up for debate and certainly a rookie catcher might struggle defensively as much as he does offensively, but there’s a good chance Mauer will be an upgrade (or at least a wash) on defense.
Guardado and Hawkins leaving really hurt the Twins, mostly because I feel as though GM Terry Ryan was counting on at least one of them returning in 2004. With both of them leaving as free agents, whatever off-season plan Ryan had needed to be changed. For the most part, he reacted by doing nothing. I’m still holding out hope that Ugueth “Shooter” Urbina could be signed, but I doubt it will happen at this point.
In the trade that sent Pierzynski to the San Francisco Giants, the Twins received Joe Nathan, as well as two pitching prospects. Nathan will take over as a late-inning reliever (most likely as closer), filling one half of the Guardado/Hawkins vacancy. Nathan went 12-4 with a 2.96 ERA in 79 innings for the Giants last year, posting an 83/33 strikeout/walk ratio while holding opponents to .186/.275/.299.
Nathan’s ability to perform similarly in 2004 is a huge key for the Twins. According to Baseball Prospectus’ reliever rankings, he was the 26th-best reliever in baseball last year and was worth 15.3 Adjusted Runs Prevented (ARP) over an average pitcher. Hawkins ranked 11th among all relievers with 22.3 ARP, while Guardado checked in at 11.8 ARP.
Even if we assume Nathan can effectively replace Guardado, if not as the team’s closer then at least as a similar source of ARP, that still leaves Hawkins’ spot and his 22.3 ARP open. It is very unlikely the Twins will be able to replace Hawkins with someone worth 22.3 ARP, but they do have some interesting bullpen candidates.
Jesse Crain is the most intriguing. I ranked Crain as my #34 prospect in all of baseball and he is one of the top 2-3 relief pitching prospects around. He threw 84 innings last year with a 1.93 ERA (and a 114/25 K/BB ratio) while pitching at Single-A, Double-A and Triple-A, and could very well make the team out of spring training. If he comes in and pitches like his performance last years says he’s capable of, he and Nathan could make a very formidable 1-2 combination.
Beyond Crain and Nathan, the biggest key to the bullpen’s success is definitely J.C. Romero. After being one of the best relievers in baseball two years ago, Romero was simply awful last year. Take a look at the all-around deterioration of his numbers:
YEAR ERA SO% BB% HR%
2002 1.89 22.9 10.8 0.9
2003 5.00 16.9 14.2 2.3
After holding batters to just .213/.307/.289 in 2002, Romero allowed them to knock him around to the tune of .272/.386/.412 last year. Whereas in 2002 Romero basically came in whenever there was a slight problem and put out the fire, he was extremely flammable himself in 2003. I remain cautiously optimistic on Romero, but I wouldn’t bet on him being anywhere close to as good as he was in 2002.
After Nathan, Crain and Romero, the Twins also have guys like Grant Balfour, Juan Rincon and Mike Nakamura, whom I think can be quality relievers this year. Balfour in particular is a guy who could be a dominant setup man or closer, although I’d like to see him get a shot in the rotation.
As it stands now, the bullpen is counting an awful lot on a guy with a significant injury history (Nathan), a guy who has never pitched in the majors (Crain) and a guy who stunk last year (Romero). If things break right, it could be a very good pen. If I had to guess though, I’d say at least one of those three struggle (or Crain spends most of the year in AAA) and the pen is worse than last year, although not by a huge amount.
Lastly, the Twins need to replace Kenny Rogers and his 195 innings of 4.57 ERA pitching. This task will likely fall on the shoulders of Carlos Silva, who came over from the Phillies for Milton. The Twins brass really seem to like Silva an awful lot, but from what I’ve seen of him and from his numbers, I’m not all that excited myself.
Everyone talks about him having a great arm, but it hasn’t translated into strikeouts at any level. In 171.1 innings in the majors, he has a strikeout/walk ratio of 89/59, which is just plain bad. He wasn’t much better in the minors either, striking out 101 batters in 183 Double-A innings. On the other hand, he’s 25, he throws ground balls, and he’s not being asked to replace Pedro Martinez. If Silva can stay healthy, he should be able to come reasonable close to Rogers’ numbers from last year.
So, essentially, these are the big changes for Minnesota in 2004:
A.J. Pierzynski Joe Mauer
Eddie Guardado/Latroy Hawkins Joe Nathan/Jesse Crain/Grant Balfour
Kenny Rogers Carlos Silva
There are some other changes, like Johan Santana being in the rotation full-time or Shannon Stewart being with the team for the entire season, but the above stuff are the biggies.
With those changes, the Twins roster is shaping up like this:
C Joe Mauer – L
1B Doug Mientkiewicz – L
2B Luis Rivas – R
SS Cristian Guzman – S
3B Corey Koskie – L
LF Shannon Stewart – R
CF Torii Hunter – R
RF Jacque Jones – L
DH Matthew LeCroy – R
C Henry Blanco – R
IF Michael Cuddyer – R
IF Nick Punto – R
OF Michael Ryan - L
?? Jose Offerman – S / Lew Ford – R
SP Brad Radke - R
SP Johan Santana – L
SP Kyle Lohse – R
SP Carlos Silva – R
SP Rick Helling – R
RP Joe Nathan – R
RP Jesse Crain – R
RP J.C. Romero – L
RP Juan Rincon – R
RP Grant Balfour - R
RP Brad Thomas – L / Sean Douglass – R / Aaron Fultz – L / Kevin Tolar – L / Mystery Meat
Is that a great team? By no means. In fact, if the Twins were in the AL East or AL West, I might pick them for 4th place. But they’re in the Central, when “they’re not bad” might just be good enough.
One thing to note about Minnesota’s 2003 season is that the Twins didn’t really get extraordinary production from any one player and no one really played significantly above their head.
Shannon Stewart was very good after coming over from the Blue Jays, but his .322/.384/.470 hitting with the Twins wasn’t all that much better than his .309/.369/.455 numbers from the past three seasons combined.
Doug Mientkiewicz had a very nice season, hitting .300/.393/.450, but that’s no better than what he did in 2001, when he hit .306/.387/.464.
Corey Koskie hit .292/.393/.452, but he played in just 131 games and he has hit .278/.374/.464 over the last three years.
Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones, Cristian Guzman and Luis Rivas all played well within their established levels of performance.
There wasn’t a single surprise/breakout season for the Twins in 2003. No Esteban Loaiza, no Greg Myers, no Melvin Mora, no Javy Lopez, no Jose Guillen, no Bill Mueller. Everyone pretty much played like they usually play, and I think that’s a good sign for 2004.
Another thing the Twins have in their favor is depth among position players (at least those who don’t play the middle infield). If Koskie goes down, Cuddyer would play third base. If Mauer gets hurt or struggles horribly, LeCroy could play catcher or they could call up Rob Bowen from Triple-A. If one of the outfielders goes down, Lew Ford or Michael Restovich could step in. If Mientkiewicz gets hurt, Justin Morneau will come up from Triple-A. The Twins don’t have anyone to really step in should Rivas or Guzman get hurt, but it’s not like either would be a huge loss in the first place. I mean, if they did have someone capable of stepping in for one of them, they probably would have done so already, right? My god, I hope so.
At the same time, they have a major lack of pitching depth. Rick Helling will likely be in the starting rotation, which tells you plenty. Really, they’re counting an awful lot on unproven guys - Crain, Balfour, Silva and possibly Nakamura. Even Santana hasn’t shown what he can or can’t do over the course of a full-season in the rotation. I do think Balfour would do well stepping into the rotation should someone go down (which is a positive in the depth department), but I’m not sure Ron Gardenhire would take him out of the bullpen to do that.
This team has some huge flaws, but remember, so does the rest of the division.
The keys to Minnesota’s season in my opinion are going to be:
1) Johan Santana staying healthy for 30+ starts.
2) Joe Nathan staying healthy and pitching like he did last year.
3) Joe Mauer holding his own as a 21-year-old rookie.
4) Getting some semblance of production from the middle-infield.
5) Carlos Silva and/or Rick Helling providing 170-190 league-average innings.
Some added bonuses would be Crain establishing himself as a dominant reliever, Balfour getting a chance to shine in the rotation, and Torii Hunter playing like he did early in 2002. I’d say if the Twins can get #1 to happen and then any two of the next four, they’ll be in good shape.
And, of course, the White Sox and Royals getting into a massive, bloody, casualty-causing brawl wouldn’t hurt either. Hey, don’t laugh. It almost happened before!
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20040316011218999