New York Yankees 2004 Preview

Friday, March 19 2004 @ 09:14 AM EST

Contributed by: Mick Doherty

It's Deja Vu All Over Again
And now for something completely different ... let's play a little game. See if you can fill in the specific name or event to which each bracketed number refers.

Coming off a World Series defeat to a National League team [1] spurred to victory by one of the greatest catchers ever to play the game [2], the Yankees have to go all the way back to the dramatic home run by a corner infielder that ended the previous season's ALCS [3] for their last moment of glory. That's WAY too long for a certain impatient owner [4].

So what did The Boss do? You know. He ran right out and ... acquired a utility infielder from the Texas Rangers [5]? Um, well, yes, but really -- he also managed to acquire arguably the biggest star in the game [6] to return a little shine to the Apple. Now of course, there's concern that the new star might clash with the established team captain [7], based largely on an unfortunate magazine interview [8] given by the incoming star that the captain didn't take too terribly kindly to.

So what have we got heading into the season following that disappointing World Series loss? What, indeed, does the highest payroll in the game buy in a depressed American (League) economy [8a]?

Well, there are All-Stars behind the plate [9], at first base [10] and at third base; in fact, even in the glorious, championship-riddled annals of the Bronx Bombers, there's a chance that the greatest third baseman in the team's history [11] is taking up residence at the hot corner right now.

The middle infield is more of a question mark, with the team's one real offensive hole [12] partnering with what we might as well admit is an overrated All-Star around the keystone [13].

There's a solid, steadying influence in left field [14], a speedy but defensively challenged former All-Star in center field [15] and a bombastic slugger occupying the Babe's old slot in right field [16].

The designated hitter slot is up for grabs, but looks like it will be used for injury-prone [17] or defensively-challenged [18] sluggers, and maybe the occasional fading former star [19].

The starting rotation is packed with big names -- and, frankly, with question marks. While there are currently six pitchers who could end up taking a regular turn at some time during the season, there's just one solid young and (so far) injury-free guy [20] penciled into the rotation.

The others are veterans, including at least one righty with arguably Hall of Fame talent [21] just on the cusp of 200 career wins. Another former 20-game winner in from the West Coast [22] could also get to 200 in pinstripes, but he'll have to overcome injuries to do so. Either way, it's quite a turnover from last year's team as two of the top four starters [23] are gone.

The closer [24], of course, is a guy who could bust out and win a Cy Young Award any time and not surprise anyone in the least.

The manager [25] of this motley crew is a former All-Star infielder, but if he ever makes it into the Hall of Fame -- as many believe he should -- it'll likely be for what he accomplished as a manager, not as a player.

That's right, Yankee fans and foes alike, the off-season has come to a close, and it's time to kick off the new baseball season -- the 1977 baseball season.

What, you thought you knew all 25 answers above [not including the bonus political reference]? You probably got one right -- #4 (that's question #4, not Larrupin' Lou Gehrig) is the only one with an answer that hasn't changed. But the 2003-2004 offseason really was eerily similar to the 1976-1977 offseason in the Bronx, which might not be good news for the rest of the American League.

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss indeed.

Answer Key:
1. Cincinnati; Florida
2. Johnny Bench; Pudge Rodriguez
3. Aaron Boone off Tim Wakefield; Chris Chambliss off Mark Littell
4. George Steinbrenner; Steinbrenner
5. Brian Doyle; Mike Lamb
6. Reggie Jackson; Alex Rodriguez
7. Thurman Munson; Derek Jeter
8. Reggie to Sport; A-Rod to Esquire
8a. See also: Carter, James Earl; Bush, George W.
9. Munson; Jorge Posada
10. Chambliss; Jason Giambi
11. Graig Nettles; A-Rod
12. SS (Bucky Dent); 2B (Enrique Wilson?)
13. Willie Randolph; Jeter
14. Roy White; Hideki Matsui
15. Mickey Rivers; Kenny Lofton
16. Jackson; Gary Sheffield
17. Cliff Johnson; Bernie Willliams
18. Dave Kingman; Ruben Sierra
19. Jimmy Wynn; Tony Clark
20. Ron Guidry; Javier Vazquez
21. Catfish Hunter; Mike Mussina
22. Ken Holtzman; Kevin Brown
23. Dock Ellis, Doyle Alexander; Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens
24. Sparky Lyle; Mariano Rivera
25. Billy Martin; Joe Torre

2003 By the Numbers

  • 101-61, won AL East and AL Pennant
  • Runs Scored/Allowed: 877/716
  • Pythagorean Record: 96-66

    Just for kicks ...
    1976 By the Numbers
  • 97-62, won AL East and AL Pennant
  • Runs Scored/Allowed: 730/575
  • Pythagorean Record: 97-62
  • Harbinger? 1977 World Series Champs

    Comings & Goings
    Headline: Ex-Yanks Take Three of Four from Tigers
    Let's imagine this, just for a moment. You're starting a baseball team from scratch and want to be better than, say, at least the Tigers.

    Lee Mazzilli abandons the Orioles to take up his first managing job with your club, knowing he'll be ably assisted by the Yoda of bench coaches, erstwhile Don Zimmer.

    Because you know pitching is the soul of the game, you blow your payroll on a starting rotation of Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Jeff Weaver and David Wells, with solid lefty Sterling Hitchcock as a fifth-starter-slash-swingman. Hey kids ... that's a total of 761 career wins from your rotation's front five.

    The bullpen doesn't have a "closer" per se, but as an enlightened Ricciardi-esque GM, you hope that wily veteran Jesse Orosco can mentor Juan Acevedo and there's always stalwart Jeff Nelson in reserve. Chris Hammond, Al Reyes and Randy Choate round out the staff; they can all share in those valuable "save opportunities."

    Since the pitching staff has been the focus, there's less to spend on the regular lineup, and that's reflected in the fact that Michel Hernandez (five games, four at-bats, one hit) is the starting -- and only -- catcher.

    At least Hernandez can conserve energy by not having to run down any popups as youngsters Nick Johnson and Drew Henson, the latter back from that wacky windmill-tilting mission to Dallas and the NFL, man the corners at first and third, respectively.

    Now, the middle infield might be a bit defensively challenged, as miraculously recovered Aaron Boone slides over to second base, where he's showed up 21 times in a big league uniform previously. Boone's actually played slightly more at shortstop, but we'll entrust that to the athletic (that's SABR code for "erratic") Alfonso Soriano.

    The outfield has solid, if unspectacular Karim Garcia and Bubba Trammell flanking young Juan Rivera, with David Dellucci sure to get yeoman's work as a defensive replacement for all three. Fernando Seguignol, whose stock has dropped somewhat since he was once traded even-up for a 40-save John Wetteland moves into the DH slot.

    And that, Yankee fans and foes, is a nice little 75-win team made up entirely of players the pinstriped ones have lost just since the close of the 2003 season.

    Headline: New Yanks Can Play a Little, Too
    Bring on those Tigers, say the New New York Yankees, and maybe even bring on those Ex-Yanks. Sure, co-managers Roy White and Don Mattingly don't have the wizened old Zimmer on the bench to consult, but think how much less of a distraction that will be when the first trip to Fenway rolls around.

    The starting rotation doesn't quite compare with the fivesome tossed out there by the Ex-Yanks, but opening any short series with Kevin Brown and Javier Vazquez means there's a pretty good chance things could go your way.

    Orlando Hernandez returns to the Bronx as a theoretically healthy El Duque slides into the third slot in the rotation, while Donovan Osborne gets a shot to be the fourth starter. Not new to the Yankee organization, but new as a healthy -- er, well, hopefully someday healthy -- fifth starter is former 20-game winner Jon Lieber.

    The bullpen is, ah, shallow, but at least there are a couple of All-Stars filling the two seats that are occupied -- Paul Quantrill sets up Tom "Flash" Gordon. Felix Heredia was released then re-signed in the off-season; he might need to sneak onto this team so Quantrill doesn't throw in 135 games.

    It's the starting lineup that should scare the living bejeezers out of the Ex-Yanks, who must be a little nervous that Hernandez is catching and Garcia looks like the cleanup hitter.

    For the New Yanks, it's a lineup Alan Trammell would sell his 1984 World Series ring to manage, just once. Defensive stalwart Joe Girardi returns to backstop the Yankees, with Travis Lee and Mike Lamb working the infield corners. Former speedster Miguel Cairo picks it at second base, while some guy named Rodriguez is the shortstop -- yes, shortstop.

    The outfield is former All-Star Kenny Lofton in center field, flanked by slugger Gary Sheffield in right field and handyman Tyler Houston in left field. The DH is someone who hit nearly 100 homers over a three-year period not too long ago -- okay, 1997-1999 -- in former Tony the Tiger All-Star Clark.

    And the bench is well-rounded, with catcher Sal Fasano, infielder Homer Bush and outfielders Darren Bragg, Mike Kelly and Bubba Crosby.

    And that, Yankee fans and foes, is a nice little 75-win team made up entirely of players the pinstriped ones have acquired since the close of the 2003 season.

    That's right ... two complete teams, both of which would arguably be quite competitive at the Major League level in 2004, composed entirely of players who have either left or joined the Yankees since Josh Beckett hugged Pudge Rodriguez between first and home.

    Just for the sake of argument, could a third team be built entirely of players who have remained with the Yankees since last year? Yes, yes it could. And again, it just might leave Alan Trammell weeping over his Motor City Kitties.

    John Flaherty catches so Jorge Posada can move to first base; Jason Giambi becomes the DH. Enrique Wilson and Derek Jeter are the middle infield, while (yes, this is a stretch) Luis Sojo moves from his third base coaching box to actually play third base. The outfield is Bernie Williams flanked by Hideki Matsui and Ruben Sierra. Hopefully the offense will make up for the, ah, defensive shortcomings.

    The pitching staff, like that of the New Yanks, is shallow but talented -- Mike Mussina and Jose Contreras alternate starts while Steve Karsay and Gabe White are around to set up Mariano Rivera.

    Stability, thy name is ... well, it ain't "New York."

    Around the Horn, Around the Division
    How the lineup could play out for the 2004 Yankees, and how the Yanks stack up against the rest of the A.L. East.

    CATCHER
    Jorge Posada, backed up by John Flaherty or Joe Girardi.

    Best Case Scenario: Posada solidifies his position as an All-Star and the fifth best catcher in Yankees history (seriously ... Bill Dickey, Yogi Berra, Elston Howard, Thurman Munson); Flaherty catches enough games to give Posada time at DH and days off to stay fresh for October.

    Worst Case Scenario: Posada, who has caught 548 games (and appeared in 574) over the past four years, breaks down. Youngster Dionar Navarro is expected to step in and play regularly because nobody trusts Flaherty as an everyday player.

    Division Rank: Apologetic nods to Javy Lopez' career year last season and even to the apoplectic Red Sox fans who wouldn't trade Jason Varitek for Yogi Berra, but Posada is the best catcher in the A.L. East. Toby Hall, thanks for stopping by.

    FIRST BASE
    Jason Giambi, backed up by Travis Lee, with occasional hints of Jorge Posada or possibly Tony Clark.

    Best Case Scenario: Giambi stays in the All-Star 150-200 OPS+ range he's been in since 1999.

    Worst Case Scenario: Giambi can't handle the defensive grind at first, moving to DH, forcing either Bernie Williams or Kenny Lofton out of the lineup, and forcing either Travis Lee or Tony Clark into the lineup.

    Division Rank: Wow ... Carlos Delgado, Giambi, Rafael Palmeiro, Tino Martinez, Kevin Millar? The division is stacked at first base, with Giambi a smidge behind Delgado, but ahead of the aging Palmeiro, ex-Yank Martinez and Millar.

    SECOND BASE
    The Great Black Hole. Enrique Wilson? Erick Almonte? Miguel Cairo? Homer Bush? Aaron Boone in August? Willie Randolph? Bobby Richardson?

    Best Case Scenario: Cairo hits enough to hold the job, with occasional support from utility infielders Wilson and Almonte -- until August, when a healthy Boone, signing for a reduced rate as punishment for his basketball shenanigans, returns to revitalize the lineup by adding a ninth All-Star to the mix.

    Worst Case Scenario: The Boss panics and deals prospects for someone like D'Angelo Jiminez or Mark Ellis, overpaying in the process. Boone draws the line at taking a paycut and signs with the Mariners to join his brother, Bret, who the Yanks tried to acquire at the trade deadline, only to learn they didn't have nearly the depth of prospects required.

    Division Rank: Rey Sanchez, Jerry Hairston Jr., Pokey Reese and Orlando Hudson aren't making 2019 Hall of Fame Induction preparations, but the Yankee situation is still the worst of the five. When Homer Bush has a legitimate shot at the job ... well, then. The best second sacker in the division won't start the season as a regular -- Baltimore's Brian Roberts is behind Hairston.

    SHORTSTOP
    The Captain, Derek Jeter, backed up, that's right, backed up by Possibly The Greatest Shortstop Ever To Play The Game, Alex Rodriguez.

    Best Case Scenario: Flanked by the surprisingly excellent defensive efforts of Cairo and A-Rod, Jeter's defensive shortcomings are disguised well enough that his batting title, 45 steals and position as captain of the Yankees -- who coast to the best record in baseball -- earns him what the New York press reports is a long-overdue MVP award.

    Worst Case Scenario: Though they try to hide it publicly, the tension between Jeter and A-Rod affects the clubhouse chemistry. After Jeter turns an ankle sliding into Texas backup catcher Ken Huckaby, Rodriguez moves to short for two weeks, hits .550 and makes several brilliant defensive plays. Kevin Brown publicly comments on how nice it is to have a legitimate shortstop behind him. Mayhem ensues.

    Division Rank: Middle of the pack -- literally. Jeter is behind Nomar Garciaparra and Miguel Tejada, in that order, and ahead of Chris Woodward and Julio Lugo. Defensively, Jeter is the fourth-best shorstop ... on the Yankees. Hello, Messers. Rodriguez, Almonte and Wilson.

    THIRD BASE
    Alex Rodriguez. For the sake of everyone in the Yankee clubhouse, this had better work.

    Best Case Scenario: A-Rod dedicates his sublime athletic talents to becoming the next Mike Schmidt, both offensively and defensively. The defense comes slowly but surely, and the offense results in the first 60-homer season for a Yankee in 43 years.

    Worst Case Scenario: Something goes wrong. A Jeter injury moves A-Rod back to short, A-Rod himself gets hurt ... anything. But the fact is, Tyler Houston is a better backup option at the hot corner than many teams have starting.

    Division Rank: Okay, Geoff Blum surely has his fans somewhere. Eric Hinske is a nice player. Melvin Mora, hey, anyone who can be a father to quintuplets and make the All-Star team, he deserves props. Bill Mueller could play for most teams; he'd look great playing second for New York. But you know, just shut up if you think any team in baseball wouldn't trade their starting third baseman straight up for Alex Rodriguez.

    LEFT FIELD
    Hideki Matsui, with perhaps some residual of the Lofton/Williams combination chipping in after (OK, if) everyone gets healthy.

    Best Case Scenario: Matsui hits .305 with 25 homers and 115 RBI and is criticized in the New York media for not living up to his Godzilla nickname and Japanese statistics.

    Worst Case Scenario: Matsui hits .285 with 20 homers and 95 RBI and is criticized in the New York media for not living up to his Godzilla nickname and Japanese statistics.

    Division Rank: Frank Catalanotto and Manny Ramirez are different types of hitters, but both are DHs masquerading as left fielders. Carl Crawford is young and erratic, but shows great promise. Larry Bigbie is rumored to be on his way to Los Angeles for a pitcher, but for now he's penciled lightly into Baltimore's lineup. As much as Matsui's relative defensive prowess and arm strength compares favorably to the rest of the division, the best he can do is second behind Ramirez, and ahead of Crawford, Catalanotto and Bigbie.

    CENTER FIELD
    Kenny Lofton; Bernie Williams; if necessary, Hideki Matsui.

    Best Case Scenario: Lofton repeats last year's offensive performance (.802 OPS, 30 SB) and limits the offensiveness of his defense.

    Worst Case Scenario: Williams gets healthy and proceeds to sulk about his lack of playing time in the outfield, believing himself the rightful heir to DiMaggio and Mantle. If Lofton is Mickey Rivers, then Williams is the end-of-his-career, second-stop-with-the-Yankees Bobby Murcer. Great guy to have around; good bat; not much of a center fielder any more. Lofton and Williams both spiral into competitive slumps, bottoming out around .230 each.

    Division Rank: Honestly, this plays out disturbingly like second base. Lofton is a nice player to have on the team, but who wouldn't rather have Vernon Wells, Johnny Damon, Rocco Baldelli -- okay, let's draw the line at Luis Matos. We'll take Lofton over Matos.

    RIGHT FIELD
    Gary Sheffield; Ruben Sierra; Bubba Crosby.

    Best Case Scenario: Sheffield stays healthy and continues on his under-the-radar path to Cooperstown.

    Worst Case Scenario: Sheffield's season gets a quick "thumbs down" and Bubba Crosby anchors right field until Williams can return to play left, flipping Matsui back to right. Nightmare scenario: tabloid headline writers have four months to mess with "Bubba" puns.

    Division Rank: If Sheffield is healthy, then Trot Nixon, Jose Cruz Jr., Jay Gibbons and whoever ends up out there for Toronto can just stand in line to hold the man's batting doughnut.

    DESIGNATED HITTER
    Bernie Williams; a cast of dozens.

    Best Case Scenario: Williams discovers he loves being a designated hitter and posts .320/25/100 numbers while taking a turn in center just once a week or so to give Lofton a blow. Alternate scenario: The very same day Williams is healthy enough to play defense, Jason Giambi admits his health problems could use some time at DH. Joe Torre provides him with about 135 games of time as Travis Lee saves Derek Jeter a half dozen errors.

    Worst Case Scenario: Ruben Sierra, Tony Clark and the rest of the "cast of dozens" all get irreperably old at the same time. Giambi, refusing to move from his stationary post at first base, forces Torre to use Travis Lee, who is by far the better fielder, as the DH. Somewhere, Nick Johnson smiles.

    Division Rank: Hard to say; the days of teams having a "starting designated hitter" like Don Baylor seem destined to retire with Edgar Martinez. Will any team in this division give any one player 400 at-bats from the DH slot? Maybe Boston and David Ortiz. Let's call it a five-way draw even though the Red Sox and Yankees, with the deepest set of options, seem likeliest to get the most production out of the DH slot overall.

    ROTATION
    Best Case Scenario: Jon Lieber gets healthy and returns to 20-win form. Orlando Hernandez gets healthy and serves as the league's best swing man. Kevin Brown stays healthy. (Sensing a pattern here?) Mike Mussina finally breaks through the 20-win barrier. Javier Vazquez adjusts well to New York and posts the first of 12 excellent seasons in pinstripes.

    Worst Case Scenario: Mussina can't handle the media pressure of being the "ace" while Vazquez can't handle the media pressure, period. Brown, Lieber and Hernandez are all out for significant chunks of time. Donovan Osborne and an un-retired John Burkett (lured by a $10M signing bonus) tie for the team lead in quality starts.

    Division Rank: Second of five. Even if Lieber was healthy, it'd be second of five. C'mon, even if Pettitte and Clemens had stayed around (assuming at least one of Vazquez or Brown had not subsequently been acquired), it'd be second of five.
    1. BOSTON: Martinez/Schilling/Lowe/Wakefield/Kim
    2. NEW YORK: Mussina/Vazquez/Brown/Contreras/Osborne
    3. TORONTO: Halladay/Batista/Lilly/Hentgen/Towers
    4. BALTIMORE: Ponson/Ainsworth/Daal/Lopez/Riley
    11. TAMPA BAY: Zambrano/Gonzalez/Hendrickson/Halama/Moss

    BULLPEN
    Best Case Scenario: Tom Gordon, Steve Karsay and Paul Quantrill get Joe Torre from the sixth inning to the ninth, where a healthy, effective Mariano Rivera awaits.

    Worst Case Scenario: Rivera turns into Jose Mesa. The Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man descends to obliterate Bronx hopes for a 27th title.

    Division Rank: Has anyone noticed the Red Sox have five former All-Star closers on the roster (Foulke, Kim, Lowe, Timlin, Williamson)? Of course, two are in the rotation. Interesting note: the order of the division rankings for the bullpens precisely matches the order of the division rankings for the rotations.
    1. BOSTON: Foulke*/Williamson/Timlin/Mendoza/Embree
    2. NEW YORK: Rivera*/Gordon/Quantrill/Karsay/Heredia
    3. TORONTO: Lopez*/Speier*/Ligtenberg/Adams/Miller
    4. BALTIMORE: Julio*/DeJean/Groom/Ryan/Bauer
    5. TAMPA BAY: Baez*/Colome/Carter/Abbott/Waechter
    * Indicates projected "closer."

    MANAGER
    Joe Torre, with an eye on Willie Randolph, Don Mattingly and Roy White.

    Best Case Scenario: Yankees win division, roll through playoffs and World Series 11-0, Torre re-signs for 2005.

    Worst Case Scenario: Yankees start 11-14; Steinbrenner fires Torre and pays huge dollars -- now referred to as "Burkett Money" in baseball circles -- to lure Bobby Valentine back to New York to manage the Yankees. Six hours after Valentine arrives at JFK from Narita via LAX (in his spacious First-Class seat on American Airlines), he calls a team meeting. Gary Sheffield and Kevin Brown stuff Valentine into a locker after 20 minutes and nobody sees him again until November.

    Division Rank: Well, let's see ... the Orioles hired former Yankee coach Lee Mazzilli to manage their team. The Devil Rays actually traded a player to acquire former Yankee manager Lou Piniella to manage their team. Terry Francona and Carlos Tosca seem like decent enough sorts. Joe Torre has guided the Yankees to six World Series and owns four rings in eight years. Let's go with Torre.

    Yankees Baseball: No Kids Allowed
    Former organizational crown jewels D'Angelo Jiminez and Brandon Claussen are in Cincinnati -- Claussen for the since-released Aaron Boone and Jiminez (originally sent to San Diego) for the legendary Jay Witasick. Ruben Rivera is trying to peddle Derek Jeter memorabilia somewhere. Scott Wiggins is in Toronto for Raul "Babe" Mondesi, while Jason Arnold and John-Ford Griffin may soon join Wiggins, on their way to Canada via Oakland in a deal that netted the Yankees perennial Cy Young winner Jeff Weaver.

    Okay, to be fair, Weaver was flipped for Kevin Brown this year, and Brown has three, maybe four Hall of Fame quality healthy months still ahead of him.

    Eric Milton, Cristian Guzman and Brian Buchanan were sent to Minnesota for a few years of future Cooperstown denizen Chuck Knoblauch, with Milton eventually moving on to Philadelphia and Buchanan to San Diego. Erick Almonte's star has fallen, leading to his outright assignment to the minors earlier this year, though he was recently restored to the roster. Marcus Thames was shipped off to Texas for Ruben Sierra: The Sequel.

    Drew Henson is in the National Football League.

    Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera and Alfonso Soriano, who along with Claussen were designated as the team's four "untouchables" a while back, are all gone -- though again, to be fair, a return of Alex Rodriguez and Javier Vazquez has the potential to trump all of the above.

    If that all sounds -- uh, kindly put, less than overwhelmingly successful -- consider this: the best two first round draft picks the Yankees have made in the last decade, Griffin and Milton, have one thing in common. They're not Yankees any more.

    Has any team done a poorer job of drafting in the first round in ... well, in the history of the amateur draft? The last first round pick to make an impact for the Yankees is Derek Jeter -- drafted in 1992, when LeBron James was in first grade. Before that, go back to Thurman Munson in 1968 for a pinstriped impact. It seems if a player is selected in the first round by the Yankees, he's destined either for captaincy or mediocrity.

    Sure, some of the other first-round picks have made impacts elsewhere -- Charlie Spikes, Scott McGregor, Pat Tabler, Rex Hudler, even Carl Everett. But does anyone remember Brien Taylor? Matt Drews? How about Shea Morenz, who at least solidified the Yankees at quarterback until Henson came along.

    Who's left? Well, Dionar Navarro, mentioned briefly above, is ranked by Baseball America as the Yankees' top prospect -- but how much of an endorsement is it to write, "He's in line to take the job in 2007, when Posada is due either a $12 million salary or $4 million buyout" (emphasis added)?

    Other names bandied about by Yankee fans as future editions of Jeter or (Mariano) Rivera -- but are more likely to be Jiminez or (Ruben) Rivera -- include:

    Third basemen Eric Duncan and Bronson Sardinha, whose paths to the Bronx hot corner might be a little blocked for the next decade.

    Second baseman Robinson Cano, who may have the clearest path to the majors of any prospect in Yankee history.

    Shortstop Ferdin Tejada, who may someday yet form the center of a Jeter-Tejada-Rodriguez Dream Infield. However, given the renewed Yankee commitment to trading prospects rather than developing them, the likelihood of a Cano-Tejada-Duncan Dream Infield is just this side of nil.

    As for pitchers, as recently as late 2002, USA Today ranked the top four Yankee pitching prospects, in order, as Arnold (gone), Clausen (gone), Alex Graman (9-10, 4.48, 110/63 K/BB for Columbus at age 25 last year) and Adrian "El Duquecito" Hernandez (28 career innings for New York). Currently, the top 14 Yankee pitching prospects, according to aggregated scouting reports, all pitched at Staten Island (NY-Penn) or below.

    Story to watch for around July 25:
    TRANSACTIONS
    NEW YORK YANKEES: Trade minor leaguers Dionar Navarro, Ferdin Tejada and Eric Duncan, plus huge wads of cash, to ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for 2B Roberto Alomar.

    So ... What's Gonna Happen?
    After getting to 101 wins by playing five games better than their Pythagorean record would indicate in 2003, the Yankees play precisely to their Pythagoriean record in 2004 and win ... 101 games.

    Unfortunately for King George's blood pressure, this leaves his team squarely one game behind the Red Sox in the A.L. East, but easy winners of the A.L. Wild Card.

    In the Divisional Series, the ghosts of 1977 raise their pinstriped specter as Hideki Matsui hits a series-winning "walk-off" home run off Jeremy Affeldt to send the Royals home for the winter. Somewhere, Freddie Patek sits crying again, awash with memories of playoffs past.

    The Yankees and Red Sox square off in one of the greatest A.L. Championship Series ever played, alternating wins until Schilling and Vazquez match up in Game 7 at Fenway. The key off-season acquisitions trade zeroes until the eighth, when Erick Almonte hits a dying quail single just out of the reach of Nomar Garciaparra to reach first.

    Pinch runner Kenny Lofton flashes back to a bygone era of his career, steals second and third and scores on a Jeter sacrifice fly, cementing the captain's reputation as a "clutch hitter." Mariano Rivera re-asserts the Bambino's Curse with six quick outs to seal the win.

    Exhausted but energized, the Yankees head to Wrigley Field to start what will be the highest-rated World Series in television history. The rotation is set: Wood, Prior, Maddux and Clement will face Mussina, Brown, Contreras and Vazquez.

    Play Ball!

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