Minor League Pitching Analysis - April
Wednesday, May 05 2004 @ 01:35 AM EDT
Contributed by: Gerry
For 2004 I have been tracking start by start statistics for all minor league starting pitchers. I have been adding this information to the prospect pages such as the one for David Bush. But how do we compare a Josh Banks start for Dunedin to a Dustin McGowan start for New Hampshire? To do this I turned to Bill James and his game scores. Bill developed game scores to answer this specific question.
The system works as follows:
+ Start with 50 points
+ Add 2 points for each inning past four; add 1 point for a strikeout; add 1 point for an out
- Deduct 2 points for each hit; 1 point for a walk; 2 points for an unearned run and four for an earned run
A result of 50 is an average start. A minimum quality start of six innings, with six hits, two walks, four strikeouts, and three earned runs scores exactly 50 points.
In April the Jays minor league starters made 84 starts. The average game score for starts was 54.1. An amazing twenty three of these starts, or 27%, did not allow a run, Josh Banks had four of these starts, Danny Core had three.
Start of the Month
On April 22 Shaun Marcum pitched a nine inning complete game shutout. Marcum struck out eight while conceding four hits and one walk. Marcum's game score was 86 points and earned him recognition for the start of the month.
Start of the Month by team
Syracuse: Chris Baker takes the honour by a nose over David Bush
Chris Baker - Apr 11, 6 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 8 K, 0 R, 76 points
Chris Baker - Apr 17, 6 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 6 K, 0 R, 75 points
David Bush - Apr 19, 7 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K, 0 R, 75 points
New Hampshire: Dustin McGowan ties Dustin McGowan
Dustin McGowan - Apr 10, 6 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 R, 70 points
Dustin McGowan - Apr 27, 6 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 9 K, 1 R, 70 points
Dunedin: Josh Banks ties with Kurt Isenberg
Joshua Banks - Apr 23, 6 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 5 K, 0 R, 73 points
Kurt Isenberg - Apr 21, 6 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 7 K, 0 R, 73 points
Joshua Banks - Apr 18, 5 IP, 0 H, 1 BB, 5 K, 0 R, 71 points
Charleston: Shaun Marcum ahead of Danny Core and Tom Mastny
Shaun Marcum - Apr 22, 9 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K, 0 R, 86 points
Danny Core - Apr 21, 6 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 8 K, 0 R, 78 points
Tom Mastny - Apr 18, 6 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 5 K, 0 R, 75 points
We have identified the best single starts of the month. Now we need to know who was the most consistent pitcher, the one with the highest average game score? Not surprisingly Shaun Marcum had the highest average score. In four starts his average score was 70.8.
The highest average scores were:
Shaun Marcum 4 starts; 70.8 ave. score
Dustin McGowan 4 starts; 64.3 ave. score
Josh Banks 5 starts; 62.6 ave. score
The highest average score for Syracuse was Chris Baker with an average score of 58.3 over four starts. David Bush was second on account of his opening day start where he allowed seven runs in four innings for a game score of 18. That raises another question. Many of the starters had one rough outing in April, either due to opening day jitters or a dead arm. Would the rankings change if the starters had a mulligan and could throw out their worst start? When I run the numbers Chris Baker benefits and moves up to number three. But the biggest beneficiary is Danny Core who moves in at number two. Core made four starts in the month, three were shutouts and in the fourth, on opening day, he allowed ten hits and six runs in 4.1 innings.
Most Forgettable start of the month
On April 17th, Ramon Mora took to the mound for Charleston. His night ended after 2.2 innings, seven hits and eight runs. Honourable mention goes to Sean Douglass who conceded six runs in less than an inning on April 18th.
Pitcher Commentary
David Bush has an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.25 at Syracuse. As mentioned his first start was not good but in his four subsequent April starts his ERA is 2.05 and his WHIP is 1.06.
Jason Arnold's game scores were 39, 33 65, 45. That is one above average start in four appearances.
Dustin McGowan was very consistent in April, May 2 was his first bad start. His game scores were 70, 64, 53, 70. The 53 came on April 20th when he walked five batters in 5.1 innings.
Josh Banks is another pitcher who struggled on opening day, lasting only two innings. His four other starts had scores of 62, 71, 73 and 66. As mentioned above he did not allow a run in those four starts and his WHIP was 0.6. Banks did allow three runs in his first May start.
Kurt Isenberg made four starts and again his first start was poor, scoring 24. The three other starts scored 65, 73 and 57. His ERA in those three starts was 0.95 and his WHIP was 0.92. Once again, to fit the pattern, his first May start was bad.
Ismael Ramirez made five starts. In three of them he was outstanding, allowing either zero or one run. The other two times he allowed nine earned runs in 7.2 innings. He is our Jekyll and Hyde award winner for April.
Shaun Marcum made four starts in April and his nine inning gem was his only shutout. His game scores were 71, 86, 56, 70. His ERA for April was 1.62 and his WHIP was 0.64.
Tom Mastny was equally nasty in April. In four starts his scores were 55, 75, 61 and 55. His ERA was 1.41 despite allowing more baserunners than Marcum. Mastny's WHIP was 0.89. Mastny has a K/9 rate of 11.8.
Danny Core, as mentioned earlier had four starts, three shutouts and a stinker. In the three shutouts his WHIP was 0.47. And his first May start was bad.
Justin James made four starts and allowed runs in all of them. His ERA was 5.23 and his WHIP was 1.11. That ERA with a lowish WHIP suggests he bunches his hits. James has 31 K's in 20.2 innings, a K/9 rate of 13.50.
Reliever Spotlight
I have not been tracking reliver appearances but a scan through the statistics highlights some pitchers.
At Syracuse Vinnie Chulk has cooled off after a hot start. His ERA is 4.85. Talley Haines has a 2.81 ERA, although his K/9 rate is very low.
At New Hampshire Brandon League had a 0.69 ERA for April before blowing up last Sunday. Kevin Frederick has a 2.00 ERA and a K/9 rate of 12. Adam Peterson has a 2.61 ERA due to the two run home run he allowed to Quebec's Maxim St.Pierre when DaBox's team was in Erie. Peterson's K/9 rate is 12.2.
At Dundedin Jamie Vermilyea has not been as dominating as he was last year. He is averaging a K per inning but his WHIP is 1.38.
Most of the Charleston relievers have good numbers. A special shout out to Brian Reed who has not allowed a run in six appearances with four saves.
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