Draft Preview - College Pitchers, Updated

Friday, May 21 2004 @ 06:52 AM EDT

Contributed by: Pistol

A month has passed since the first look at college pitchers eligible for the draft. Now we have an additional month of statistics, plus the added bonus of Craig Burley's adjusted stats for 2004, in addition to 2003.

Below is a list and profile of 25 top college pitching prospects.

First, a few notes on the statistics shown:

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP = (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP. A discussion of FIP can be found here. The lower the score the better. Calculations are made on the raw, unadjusted college statistics.

xRSAA: Adjusted runs saved above average. This statistic was generated by Craig Burley and adjusts the raw college statistics for park effects and competition.

RA+: Adjusted runs allowed. Similar to ERA+ this is a rate stat with 100 as a midpoint. Again, this was generated by Craig Burley and adjusts the raw college stats for park effects and competition

To learn more about each of the players on the list click on their name for detailed profiles.

The order of pitchers listed below are the same as the original list, but not necessarily how I would rank them now since there's more data to digest, especially the adjusted stats.

#1 Jered Weaver – Long Beach St

Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 1.27 113.1 13.6 1.1 0.3 -2.2 78.7 425
2003 1.96 133.1 9.7 1.4 0.5 -1.0 79.6 268


#2 Wade Townsend – Rice
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 1.55 98.2 11.1 3.4 0.5 -0.7 56.0 361
2003 2.20 118.2 12.5 3.5 0.2 -1.4 65.1 284
2002 2.28 51.1 9.0 3.9 0.7 0.3


#3 Phillip Humber – Rice
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 1.66 92 11.8 2.6 0.2 -1.5 51.9 337
2003 3.30 128.0 9.7 2.7 0.8 0.0 54.8 204
2002 2.77 110.2 10.6 3.5 0.7 -0.2


#4 Jeff Niemann – Rice
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 2.58 59.1 10.7 3.0 0.5 -0.7 29.9 252
2003 1.70 137.1 10.2 2.3 0.4 -0.9 77.6 370
2002 3.11 66.2 7.2 3.7 0.1 -0.2


#5 Justin Verlander – Old Dominion

Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 3.33 92 13.2 3.8 0.8 -0.5 25.2 171
2003 2.40 116.1 10.8 3.3 0.2 -1.1 46.6 194
2002 1.90 113.2 10.9 3.4 0.2 -1.1


#6 Jeremy Sowers – Vanderbilt
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 3.14 94.2 8.5 1.7 0.6 -0.5 43.6 187
2003 2.50 115.0 9.6 2.3 0.5 -0.6 51.7 225
2002 4.37 101.0 7.6 2.8 0.8 0.4


#7 JP Howell – Texas
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 1.79 100.2 11.3 3.1 0.4 -1.0 61.7 324
2003 2.52 114.1 8.3 3.4 0.2 -0.4 52.9 230


#8 Thomas Diamond – New Orleans
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 2.57 98 11.5 3.5 0.6 -0.5 36.2 187
2003 5.79 37.1 10.7 6.1 20.2 168


#9 Justin Orenduff – Virginia Commonwealth
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 2.53 89 11.5 2.7 0.3 -1.2 35.2 203
2003 2.27 95.0 11.4 2.5 0.8 -0.6 36 234
2002 1.68 59.0 11.9 2.9


#10 Matt Campbell – South Carolina
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 3.17 88 10.2 2.0 0.4 -1.0 43.9 179
2003 3.48 82.2 9.0 5.1 0.3 0.2 23.2 138
2002 2.43 37.0 10.7 7.5 0.5 0.8


#11 Huston Street – Texas
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 1.53 35.1 9.0 2.3 0.5 -0.5 24.6 296
2003 1.33 74.1 8.4 1.6 0.4 -0.8 50.3 471
2002 0.96 47.0 9.4 1.7 0.4 -1.0


#12 Billy Buckner – South Carolina
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 3.34 62 11.3 2.3 1.2 -0.1 24.2 166


#13 Josh Baker – Rice
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 2.66 81.1 8.3 3.8 0.2 -0.3 29.0 234
2003 3.22 95.0 6.7 2.7 0.7 0.4 38.2 227


#14 Matt Durkin- San Jose St
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 4.88 101.1 8.5 3.9 0.4 -0.1 29.9 132
2003 2.60 100.1 9.9 3.8 0.4 -0.4 42.6 235
2002 2.75 98.1 7.8 2.2 0.0 -1.0


#15 Zach Jackson – Texas A&M
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 3.02 92.1 10.2 2.0 0.4 -1.0 45.3 214
2003 4.31 112.2 6.0 2.3 1.0 0.8 14.7 110
2002 4.77 83.0 5.0 2.6 0.9 1.0


#16 Steven Register – Auburn
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 3.78 50 8.8 2.5 1.3 0.7 15.8 178
2003 2.94 52.0 10.6 1.2 0.9 -0.7 25.1 187



#17 Glen Perkins - Minnesota
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 2.98 84.2 8.8 2.2 0.6 -0.3 34.2 188
2003 2.91 105.1 10.0 2.0 0.4 -1.0 42.8 217


#18 Chris Lambert – Boston College
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 3.22 78.1 10.0 5.3 0.5 0.2 23.6 160
2003 2.71 79.2 10.0 4.3 0.2 -0.5 23.7 174


#19 Micah Owings – Georgia Tech
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 3.44 83.2 9.1 3.6 1.3 1.0 34.5 182
2003 3.99 88.0 5.9 2.1 1.2 1.2 27.8 163


#20 David Purcey - Oklahoma
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 2.76 98 10.0 3.9 0.4 -0.4 50.6 211
2003 5.20 72.2 8.4 5.1 0.5 0.6 24.4 126
2002 3.35 75.1 10.1 5.3 0.4 0.0


#21 Russ Ohlendorf - Princeton
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 3.66 59 11.1 4.3 0.2 -0.8 16.4 147
2003 3.57 45.1 9.4 3.8 0.2 -0.5 8.3 125
2002 3.08 52.2 8.8 3.8 0.0 -0.7


#22 Tyler Lumsden - Clemson
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 3.9 64.2 9.4 4.3 0.4 0.0 20.9 131
2003 3.77 86.0 7.5 3.2 19.6 122
2002 5.28 58.0 9.8 6.1


#23 Matt Fox – Central Florida
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 2.02 89 10.1 2.7 0.3 -0.9 43.6 242


#24 Michael Rogers – NC State
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 2.24 96.1 9.0 1.7 0.4 -0.9 53.3 234
2003 3.02 125.0 8.1 2.4 0.6 -0.1 34.2 139
2002 3.63 39.2 9.4 4.1 0.2 -0.4


#25 Brett Smith – UC Irvine
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004 2.02 93.2 8.7 2.1 0.5 -0.5 37.0 221
2003 3.71 102.0 7.7 3.4 0.2 -0.3 17.2 138
2002 5.31 84.2 7.5 4.8 0.6 0.9


Preliminary Batter's Box Draft Coverage:
* College Pitchers - April 28th
* College Hitters - May 17th
* College Pitchers, Updated - May 21st
* A review of the 2 Ricciardi Drafts - May 26th
* Mock Draft - June 2nd
* Batter's Box Draft Day Coverage - June 7th

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