Draft-Eligible Pitchers: A Statistical Ranking

Friday, June 04 2004 @ 11:29 AM EDT

Contributed by: robertdudek

The following are composite statistical rankings of draft-eligible college pitchers. Only 2004 Division 1 stats were considered and only pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched were included. The composite ranking is based of 4 relatively evenly weighted categories: 1) Runs Saved Above Average, 2) FIP Run Average, 3) Component Performance Rating, 4) Component Performance Points Above Average.

The first is the familiar category used by Craig Burley in previous posts. The second is a college-adjusted version of Tangotiger's Fielding Independent Run Average, which looks only at homeruns allowed, hit batsmen, walks, strikeouts and innings pitched. The third category is a rating derived from 4 component stats: strikeouts per BF, walks per BF minus HBP, hits on balls in play average and homeruns per balls contacted. The final category is the difference between the individual and average component performance rating, multiplied by batters faced.

Strength of schedule for 2004 ratings were derived using the method outlined here. The rankings are not age-adjusted, nor do they take any subjective factors into account. It is important to keep in mind that after the first 5 relief pitchers and the first 10 starting pitchers, the composite ranking point differences are very small. These lists are intended to be a starting point for discussion.

Pitchers starting at least 40% of the games they appeared in were classified as starters; all others were classified as relievers. Age is rounded to the nearest tenth as of June 7th, 2004 (draft day). Some birthdates were unobtainable: If anyone has information concerning the four missing birthdates, it would be much appreciated.

 Starting PitcherCollegeClassAge
1Jered WeaverLong Beach Statejunior21.7
2Philip HumberRicejunior21.5
3Wade TownsendRicejunior21.3
4J.P. HowellTexasjunior21.1
5Michael RogersNorth Carolina Statesoph 21.6
6Jason WindsorCal State Fullertonsenior21.9
7Vern SterryNorth Carolina Statesenior22.3
8Matt CampbellSouth Carolinajunior21.4
9Justin OrenduffVirginia Commonwealthjunior21.0
10Mark RobertsOklahomasenior22.0
11Matt FoxCentral Floridajunior21.5
12Thomas DiamondNew Orleansjunior21.2
13Jeremy SowersVanderbiltjunior21.1
14Glen PerkinsMinnesotasoph21.3
15Jarrett GrubeMemphissenior22.6
16Justin VerlanderOld Dominionjunior 21.3
17Donnie SmithOld Dominionjunior21.4
18John WilliamsMiddle Tennessee Statesenior 22.5
19Zach JacksonTexas A+Mjunior21.1
20David PurceyOklahomajunior 22.1
21Justin PekarekNebraskasenior23.5
22Brett SmithUC Irvinejunior20.8
23Billy BucknerSouth Carolinajunior20.8
24Casey JanssenUCLAsenior22.7
25Derek TharpeTennesseesenior22.6
26Kyle BonoCentral Floridasoph 20.9
27Jeff NiemannRicejunior 21.3
28Andrew DobiesVirginiajunior21.1
29R.J. SwindleCharleston Southernjunior 20.9
30J.A. HappNorthwesternjunior21.6
31Kyle StutesLamarsenior 
32Shawn PhillipsDelaware Statejunior 
33Derek HankinsMemphisjunior 20.9
34Steve GrasleyCreightonsenior22.8
35Greg BunnEast Carolinajunior 
36Jonathan EllisThe Citadel junior21.7
37Chris MobleyMiddle TennesseeStatejunior 20.8
38Jordan ThomsonNortheasternsenior 22.5
39David SeccombeNevada-Las Vegas senior 22.4
40Micah OwingsGeorgia Techsoph 21.7
41Scott ShoemakerSan Diego Statesenior22.7
42Justin HoymanFloridajunior22.1
43Tyler LumsdenClemsonjunior21.1
44Jason UrquidezArizona Statejunior21.7
45Garrett BroshuisMissourijunior22.5
46Jimmy ShullCal Polyjunior20.8
47Andy SonnanstineKent Statesoph 21.2
48Matt SchererLeMoynejunior 21.4
49Mark WorrellFlorida International junior 21.2
50Sean RuthvenGeorgiajunior21.7

 Relief PitcherCollegeClassAge
1Tommy HottovyWichita Statesenior22.9
2Jon Wilson Winthropjunior 
3Nate MooreTroy Statejunior 21.0
4Chad BlackwellSouth Carolinajunior 21.4
5Cla MeredithVirginia Commonwealthjunior 21.0
6Anthony ReaSanta Clarajunior 21.8
7Brandon RoznovskyHoustonsenior 22.7
8Bill BrayWilliam and Maryjunior21.0
9Michael GrossNorth Carolinasenior 22.7
10Ryan SchroyerSan Diego Statesenior 22.7
11Mark AlexanderMissourisenior 23.5
12Saunders RamseyMississippi Statejunior 22.0
13Taylor TankersleyAlabamajunior 21.3
14Brad SmithSoutheast Missouri Statejunior 22.3
15Daniel McCutchenOklahomajunior 21.7
16Huston StreetTexasjunior 20.8
17Buck CodyTexasjunior 22.0
18Scot DruckerTennesseejunior22.0
19Alex McRobbieUC Santa Barbarajunior 21.4
20Patrick Hogan Clemson senior23.2

A special thanks to Craig Burley for blazing the college stats trail and Boyd Nation for making the stats available in a convenient form and providing frequent updates.