Draft-Eligible Pitchers: A Statistical Ranking

Friday, June 04 2004 @ 11:29 AM EDT

Contributed by: robertdudek

The following are composite statistical rankings of draft-eligible college pitchers. Only 2004 Division 1 stats were considered and only pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched were included. The composite ranking is based of 4 relatively evenly weighted categories: 1) Runs Saved Above Average, 2) FIP Run Average, 3) Component Performance Rating, 4) Component Performance Points Above Average.

The first is the familiar category used by Craig Burley in previous posts. The second is a college-adjusted version of Tangotiger's Fielding Independent Run Average, which looks only at homeruns allowed, hit batsmen, walks, strikeouts and innings pitched. The third category is a rating derived from 4 component stats: strikeouts per BF, walks per BF minus HBP, hits on balls in play average and homeruns per balls contacted. The final category is the difference between the individual and average component performance rating, multiplied by batters faced.

Strength of schedule for 2004 ratings were derived using the method outlined here. The rankings are not age-adjusted, nor do they take any subjective factors into account. It is important to keep in mind that after the first 5 relief pitchers and the first 10 starting pitchers, the composite ranking point differences are very small. These lists are intended to be a starting point for discussion.

Pitchers starting at least 40% of the games they appeared in were classified as starters; all others were classified as relievers. Age is rounded to the nearest tenth as of June 7th, 2004 (draft day). Some birthdates were unobtainable: If anyone has information concerning the four missing birthdates, it would be much appreciated.

	Starting Pitcher	College	Class	Age
1	Jered Weaver	Long Beach State	junior	21.7
2	Philip Humber	Rice	junior	21.5
3	Wade Townsend	Rice	junior	21.3
4	J.P. Howell	Texas	junior	21.1
5	Michael Rogers	North Carolina State	soph	21.6
6	Jason Windsor	Cal State Fullerton	senior	21.9
7	Vern Sterry	North Carolina State	senior	22.3
8	Matt Campbell	South Carolina	junior	21.4
9	Justin Orenduff	Virginia Commonwealth	junior	21.0
10	Mark Roberts	Oklahoma	senior	22.0
11	Matt Fox	Central Florida	junior	21.5
12	Thomas Diamond	New Orleans	junior	21.2
13	Jeremy Sowers	Vanderbilt	junior	21.1
14	Glen Perkins	Minnesota	soph	21.3
15	Jarrett Grube	Memphis	senior	22.6
16	Justin Verlander	Old Dominion	junior	21.3
17	Donnie Smith	Old Dominion	junior	21.4
18	John Williams	Middle Tennessee State	senior	22.5
19	Zach Jackson	Texas A+M	junior	21.1
20	David Purcey	Oklahoma	junior	22.1
21	Justin Pekarek	Nebraska	senior	23.5
22	Brett Smith	UC Irvine	junior	20.8
23	Billy Buckner	South Carolina	junior	20.8
24	Casey Janssen	UCLA	senior	22.7
25	Derek Tharpe	Tennessee	senior	22.6
26	Kyle Bono	Central Florida	soph	20.9
27	Jeff Niemann	Rice	junior	21.3
28	Andrew Dobies	Virginia	junior	21.1
29	R.J. Swindle	Charleston Southern	junior	20.9
30	J.A. Happ	Northwestern	junior	21.6
31	Kyle Stutes	Lamar	senior
32	Shawn Phillips	Delaware State	junior
33	Derek Hankins	Memphis	junior	20.9
34	Steve Grasley	Creighton	senior	22.8
35	Greg Bunn	East Carolina	junior
36	Jonathan Ellis	The Citadel	junior	21.7
37	Chris Mobley	Middle TennesseeState	junior	20.8
38	Jordan Thomson	Northeastern	senior	22.5
39	David Seccombe	Nevada-Las Vegas	senior	22.4
40	Micah Owings	Georgia Tech	soph	21.7
41	Scott Shoemaker	San Diego State	senior	22.7
42	Justin Hoyman	Florida	junior	22.1
43	Tyler Lumsden	Clemson	junior	21.1
44	Jason Urquidez	Arizona State	junior	21.7
45	Garrett Broshuis	Missouri	junior	22.5
46	Jimmy Shull	Cal Poly	junior	20.8
47	Andy Sonnanstine	Kent State	soph	21.2
48	Matt Scherer	LeMoyne	junior	21.4
49	Mark Worrell	Florida International	junior	21.2
50	Sean Ruthven	Georgia	junior	21.7

	Relief Pitcher	College	Class	Age
1	Tommy Hottovy	Wichita State	senior	22.9
2	Jon Wilson	Winthrop	junior
3	Nate Moore	Troy State	junior	21.0
4	Chad Blackwell	South Carolina	junior	21.4
5	Cla Meredith	Virginia Commonwealth	junior	21.0
6	Anthony Rea	Santa Clara	junior	21.8
7	Brandon Roznovsky	Houston	senior	22.7
8	Bill Bray	William and Mary	junior	21.0
9	Michael Gross	North Carolina	senior	22.7
10	Ryan Schroyer	San Diego State	senior	22.7
11	Mark Alexander	Missouri	senior	23.5
12	Saunders Ramsey	Mississippi State	junior	22.0
13	Taylor Tankersley	Alabama	junior	21.3
14	Brad Smith	Southeast Missouri State	junior	22.3
15	Daniel McCutchen	Oklahoma	junior	21.7
16	Huston Street	Texas	junior	20.8
17	Buck Cody	Texas	junior	22.0
18	Scot Drucker	Tennessee	junior	22.0
19	Alex McRobbie	UC Santa Barbara	junior	21.4
20	Patrick Hogan	Clemson	senior	23.2

A special thanks to Craig Burley for blazing the college stats trail and Boyd Nation for making the stats available in a convenient form and providing frequent updates.

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