Batter's Box reader Marc has taken a crack at the ongoing debate between drafting high school versus drafting college players. Always an interesting (and controversial) topic. Enjoy!
Is it better to draft college or high school players, or neither?
The on going debate rages on
By Marc
THE IDEA:
In order to further grasp the concept of whether it is better to draft college or high school players I took it upon myself to do a little stats-geek research.
Now admittedly this research was a little subjective. I decided to pick the three best hitters and three best pitchers on each of the thirty teams and record whether they were drafted out of college, high school junior college or signed as a non-drafted free agent.
Now, as I said, these players were chosen by me and when it became difficult to narrow down who the best players were on each team, I ultimately considered their overall career, not just recent stats. Also, keep in mind that some teams (i.e. the Yankees, etc.) have six or seven hitters better than any three players on other teams (i.e. the Pirates).
My goal in doing it this way was to help determine which draft theory was better for producing star players, not just your average run-of-the-mill Mike Laga or Russ Morman.
WHAT I FOUND:
Of the 180 star players
68 of them were drafted out of college
50 of them signed as non-drafted free agents (mostly out of Japan, the Dominican or Venezuela)
46 of them were drafted out of high school
16 of them were drafted out of junior college
Also I wondered which teams were most responsible for producing (originally signing and developing) quality star players in the major leagues and which teams relied on the ol' trade for 'em or sign 'em away from other teams. Some results were surprising, while others were not:
**Toronto ranked No. 1 and signed 14 star players out of the 180 players considered.
BEST
Toronto 14
Montreal 13
Atlanta 11
Chicago (AL)/Cleveland 10
Los Angeles 9
Oakland/Texas/Houston 8
New York (AL)/Boston/Seattle/Pittsburgh 7
WORST
New York (NL) 1
Cincinnati/Detroit/Tampa Bay 2
Baltimore/KC/San Diego/San Fran/Arizona/Milwaukee 3
Florida/Colorado 4
Philadelphia/St. Louis 5
Minnesota/Anaheim/ Chicago (NL) 6
INTERESTING DRAFT TIDBITS:
Did you know
San Francisco actually drafted Barry Bonds (later drafted and signed by Pittsburgh) out of high school in the second round?
Milwaukee drafted Nomar Garciaparra (Boston) out of high school in the fifth round?
Atlanta drafted Randy Johnson (Montreal) out of high school in the third round?
The Mets drafted Roger Clemens (Boston) out of high school in the 12th round?
Detroit drafted Mark Mulder (Oakland) out of high school in the 55th round?
Texas drafted Barry Zito (Oakland) out of junior college in the third round?
CONCLUSION:
It seems as though there is a slightly better chance of finding a star player in college (38 per cent of the 180 star players were signed out of college) than there is out of high school (26 per cent). And it is almost as easy to find a star player out of high school (26 per cent) as it is to sign one out of Venezuela, Japan or the Dominican (28 per cent).
OK Bauxites, discuss!
Thanks, Marc, from us at Batter's Box. We encourage Pinch Hit submissions from anyone and everyone. E-mail me at craig@battersbox.ca if you're interested, either with ideas, drafts, or completed pieces!
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20040723082201999