Minor Context: League Averages & Blue Jay Pitching Prospects

Thursday, July 29 2004 @ 11:51 AM EDT

Contributed by: Jonny German

In a rather dismal season for the Blue Jays, many of us have taken a keener interest in the minor leagues. As my own knowledge of Blue Jays prospects has increased, so has my interest in the context of the stats being compiled by The Future.

To begin to get a grip on the significance of things like Shaun Marcum's 2.28 ERA at High-A and Jamie Vermilyea's 4.20 K/BB in Double-A, I compiled a table of averages for every professional baseball league currently playing in North America. Before we get to that table, a note on sources used for this article: League stats and stats for players from Triple-A down to A-ball are courtesy of Baseball America. Short-season A-ball stats are from MinorLeagueBaseball.com, as are Rookie level stats.

Table 1: League Averages

LG	LEV	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB	WHIP	G
GCL	R	3.69	7.45	3.12	0.45	2.39	1.27	172
NYP	A-	3.78	7.87	3.18	0.56	2.47	1.32	251
FLA	A+	3.86	7.01	3.40	0.60	2.06	1.34	598
MID	A	3.99	7.85	3.21	0.70	2.45	1.30	692
SOU	AA	4.04	7.56	3.19	0.85	2.37	1.32	490
CAR	A+	4.10	6.73	3.27	0.68	2.06	1.35	390
EAS	AA	4.22	6.93	3.31	0.85	2.10	1.35	601
APP	R+	4.24	8.19	3.38	0.71	2.42	1.34	165
NL	MLB	4.26	6.60	3.38	1.09	1.95	1.39	783
SAL	A	4.37	7.72	3.43	0.83	2.25	1.36	793
TEX	AA	4.39	7.19	3.29	0.78	2.19	1.39	405
ARI	R	4.45	7.75	3.69	0.41	2.10	1.50	122
NWN	A-	4.46	7.81	3.65	0.76	2.14	1.39	148
INT	AAA	4.49	6.72	3.12	1.02	2.15	1.37	710
AL	MLB	4.59	6.35	3.38	1.12	1.88	1.42	682
CAL	A+	4.60	7.25	3.43	0.80	2.11	1.46	497
PCL	AAA	4.82	6.68	3.29	1.08	2.03	1.45	807
PIO	R+	5.51	7.94	4.46	0.81	1.78	1.59	141
Overall avg:	4.32	7.31	3.40	0.78	2.16	1.38	469

The "G" column is the number of games that have been played in the league; Leagues with stats in bold include a Blue Jay affiliate.

Next, we need the stats of individual Blue Jay prospects. The "Age" given in the tables below is 2004 Baseball Age. In the interest of keeping the tables readable, I haven't included every pitcher from every team. Brackets are used to denote players who have moved on to another level of the farm system.

Table 2: Unadjusted Stats Of Blue Jay Prospects

Triple-A Syracuse SkyChiefs

Name        	Age	IP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB	WHIP
Adam Peterson	25	6.2	9.45	7.26	7.26	2.90	1.00	2.26
Aquilino Lopez	29	22.2	7.54	6.08	2.84	1.62	2.14	1.58
Dave Maurer	29	44.1	3.45	9.39	3.88	1.02	2.42	1.32
Jason Arnold	25	37	3.65	3.65	2.92	1.46	1.25	1.41
Josue Matos	26	97.2	4.79	7.41	2.87	1.30	2.58	1.35
Ryan Glynn	29	54	4.67	7.17	3.17	0.67	2.26	1.28
Talley Haines	27	55.1	4.88	6.04	1.80	1.63	3.36	1.31
League        	-	-	4.49	6.72	3.12	1.02	2.15	1.37

Triple-A Stats of players now in Toronto

Name        	Age	IP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB	WHIP
(David Bush)	24	99.2	4.06	7.98	1.81	0.64	4.40	1.29
(Josh Towers)	27	36	2.50	6.25	1.75	1.25	3.57	1.11
(Kev Frederick)	27	27.1	0.99	8.63	2.99	0.66	2.89	1.00
(Mike Nakamura)	27	33.1	3.78	11.15	2.72	0.54	4.10	1.06
(Sean Douglass)	25	89	4.75	7.48	3.74	0.71	2.00	1.45
(Vinny Chulk)	25	28.2	2.83	8.30	3.51	1.60	2.36	1.35
League        	-	-	4.49	6.72	3.12	1.02	2.15	1.37

Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Name        	Age	IP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB	WHIP
Brandon League	21	67.1	3.07	6.84	3.35	0.27	2.04	1.15
Frank Rosario	23	16.1	5.51	6.71	4.47	1.12	1.50	1.55
Gustavo Chacin	23	108.2	3.64	6.65	3.16	1.25	2.11	1.27
Jay Vermilyea	22	34.2	2.60	5.53	1.32	0.53	4.20	0.96
Josh Banks	21	54	5.33	6.00	3.17	1.00	1.89	1.33
(Adam Peterson)	25	28.1	2.54	12.17	3.20	0.32	3.80	1.07
(Kev Frederick)	27	21.1	1.27	11.09	2.13	0.43	5.20	0.95
League        	-	-	4.22	6.93	3.31	0.85	2.10	1.35

High-A Dunedin Blue Jays

Name        	Age	IP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB	WHIP
Brian Reed	23	14.2	4.30	10.77	1.27	1.27	8.50	1.34
Bub Buzachero	23	45	2.40	9.40	3.20	0.60	2.94	1.24
Ismael Ramirez	23	122	3.02	6.64	1.62	0.22	4.09	1.15
Justin James	22	30.1	4.75	7.77	3.89	0.30	2.00	1.53
Shaun Marcum	22	43.1	2.28	9.61	0.63	0.63	15.33	1.07
(Frank Rosario)	23	17.1	4.67	8.42	5.79	1.05	1.45	1.58
(Jay Vermilyea)	22	55.1	3.09	6.04	2.12	0.65	2.85	1.22
(Josh Banks)	21	60	1.80	9.00	1.20	0.60	7.50	0.95
League        	-	-	3.86	7.01	3.40	0.60	2.06	1.34

A Charleston Alley Cats

Name        	Age	IP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB	WHIP
Danny Core	22	110.1	3.59	7.19	3.11	0.98	2.32	1.26
Davis Romero	21	78.2	2.40	9.78	2.30	0.58	4.25	0.97
Felix Romero	24	66.2	2.97	12.51	2.58	0.54	4.84	1.13
Thomas Mastny	23	113.1	1.91	7.96	2.55	0.16	3.13	1.11
(Brian Reed)	23	26	0.35	9.69	1.73	0.00	5.60	0.85
(Justin James)	22	78	3.00	9.58	2.77	0.23	3.46	1.17
(Shaun Marcum)	22	79	3.19	9.46	1.82	0.80	5.19	1.01
League        	-	-	4.37	7.72	3.43	0.83	2.25	1.36

Short-Season-A Auburn Doubledays

Name        	Age	IP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB	WHIP
Casey Janssen	22	13.2	2.63	8.18	2.05	0.00	4.00	1.29
Casey McKenzie	21	35	3.60	7.46	1.80	0.77	4.14	1.17
Chris Leonard	23	26.1	3.76	10.34	2.41	0.69	4.29	1.15
Dewon Day	23	15	1.20	9.60	3.00	0.00	3.20	1.33
Erik Rico	24	26.1	1.37	7.24	1.38	0.69	5.25	1.07
Joey McLaughlin	23	20	2.25	10.80	4.05	0.00	2.67	1.15
Mike MacDonald	22	38.1	1.41	6.85	1.42	0.24	4.83	0.81
League        	-	-	3.78	7.87	3.18	0.56	2.47	1.32

Rookie Pulaski Blue Jays

Name        	Age	IP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB	WHIP
Adrian Martin	19	34	3.97	9.26	0.79	0.26	11.67	1.21
Brian Grant	19	26	2.08	5.19	2.42	0.00	2.14	1.23
Chi-Hung Cheng	19	35.1	3.06	10.51	4.10	0.77	2.56	1.34
Derek Tate	22	27.1	1.32	10.30	1.33	0.33	7.75	0.81
Raymon Sanchez	20	18	2.50	8.50	3.50	1.00	2.43	1.67
Russ Savickas	20	11	2.45	6.55	1.64	0.00	4.00	0.82
League        	-	-	4.24	8.19	3.38	0.71	2.42	1.34

Now we're ready to put it all together and come up with league-ajusted numbers. I chose to do this by normalizing - for example, the ERA given here is LeagueERA / PlayerERA * 100. A league average pitcher will score 100 across the board; numbers higher than 100 indicate an above-average player by that measure. Innings Pitched is included in these talbes as some of the sample sizes are laughably small, especially for the short-season clubs in Auburn and Pulaski.

Note that adjustments have been made for League only. These numbers are not adjusted for park, level of competition, or age.

Table 3: Stats Of Blue Jay Prospects, Normalized To League

Triple-A Syracuse SkyChiefs

Name        	Age	IP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB	WHIP
Adam Peterson	25	6.2	47	108	43	35	46	61
Aquilino Lopez	29	22.2	60	90	110	63	99	87
Dave Maurer	29	44.1	130	140	80	100	112	104
Jason Arnold	25	37	123	54	107	70	58	97
Josue Matos	26	97.2	94	110	109	79	120	101
Ryan Glynn	29	54	96	107	99	153	105	107
Talley Haines	27	55.1	92	90	174	63	156	105

Triple-A Stats of players now in Toronto

Name        	Age	IP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB	WHIP
(David Bush)	24	99.2	111	119	172	161	204	106
(Josh Towers)	27	36	180	93	178	82	166	123
(Kev Frederick)	27	27.1	453	128	104	154	134	137
(Mike Nakamura)	27	33.1	119	166	115	188	190	129
(Sean Douglass)	25	89	94	111	83	144	93	94
(Vinny Chulk)	25	28.2	159	123	89	64	110	101

Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Name        	Age	IP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB	WHIP
Brandon League	21	67.1	137	99	99	318	97	118
Frank Rosario	23	16.1	77	97	74	76	72	87
Gustavo Chacin	23	108.2	116	96	105	68	100	107
Jay Vermilyea	22	34.2	162	80	251	162	200	140
Josh Banks	21	54	79	87	104	85	90	101
(Adam Peterson)	25	28.1	166	176	103	266	181	126
(Kev Frederick)	27	21.1	332	160	155	200	248	142

High-A Dunedin Blue Jays

Name        	Age	IP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB	WHIP
Brian Reed	23	14.2	90	154	269	47	413	100
Bub Buzachero	23	45	161	134	106	100	143	108
Ismael Ramirez	23	122	128	95	210	270	199	117
Justin James	22	30.1	81	111	88	200	97	88
Shaun Marcum	22	43.1	169	137	544	96	744	125
(Frank Rosario)	23	17.1	83	120	59	57	71	85
(Jay Vermilyea)	22	55.1	125	86	160	92	138	110
(Josh Banks)	21	60	214	128	284	100	364	141

A Charleston Alley Cats

Name        	Age	IP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB	WHIP
Danny Core	22	110.1	122	93	110	85	103	108
Davis Romero	21	78.2	182	127	149	144	189	140
Felix Romero	24	66.2	147	162	133	153	215	120
Thomas Mastny	23	113.1	229	103	135	522	139	123
(Brian Reed)	23	26	1248	126	198	999	249	161
(Justin James)	22	78	146	124	124	360	154	117
(Shaun Marcum)	22	79	137	122	188	104	230	135

Short-Season-A Auburn Doubledays

Name        	Age	IP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB	WHIP
Casey Janssen	22	13.2	144	104	155	999	162	102
Casey McKenzie	21	35	105	95	177	73	168	112
Chris Leonard	23	26.1	101	132	132	81	173	114
Dewon Day	23	15	315	122	106	999	129	99
Erik Rico	24	26.1	276	92	231	81	212	123
Joey McLaughlin	23	20	168	137	79	999	108	114
Mike MacDonald	22	38.1	268	87	224	238	195	162

Rookie Pulaski Blue Jays

Name        	Age	IP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB	WHIP
Adrian Martin	19	34	107	113	426	270	481	111
Brian Grant	19	26	204	63	139	999	88	109
Chi-Hung Cheng	19	35.1	139	128	82	93	106	100
Derek Tate	22	27.1	322	126	254	215	320	165
Raymon Sanchez	20	18	170	104	97	71	100	80
Russ Savickas	20	11	173	80	207	999	165	163

Rather than provide further analysis or commentary on these numbers, I'm going to leave it at that and let the Box discussion draw conclusions.

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