Much more than the A.L. Central is on the line over this four-game set. For those of you who don't recall, I also have a standing wager with Robert Dudek of a 100-level ticket on whether Cleveland will finish above .500 this season. Robert's in a slightly better position, as the Tribe sits at 53-52.
No matter the outcome, Cleveland has pleasantly surprised me. They have an excellent lineup capable of wearing pitchers out by going deep into counts. They have help on the way with some solid starting prospects. And their bullpen...well, let's just say that the bullpen remains my ace in the hole.
This week's Scout features some hot young hitters, a veteran that keeps on keepin' on, and an obstinate draft pick that might throw a wrench into GM Mark Shapiro's best-laid plans.
On to the Advance Scout!
* Cleveland puts up an excellent .286/.353/.468 line on the road, and as you can see below, most of the team's hitters prefer to swing the bats away from Jacobs Field ... Nevertheless, they're a poor 21-29 on the road -- largely because their ERA swells above 5 ... Their bullpen woes have been well-documented. The club's 5.12 ERA from the seventh inning on is the worst in the AL ... The Tribe has been doing it with patience and batting average, rather than power, this year. They're first in the AL in runs scored, first in OBP, second in batting average -- and only eighth in home runs ... Cleveland is 11-7 since the All-Star Break ...
* Today's starter, Cliff Lee, is 0-2 with a 25.05 ERA over his last two starts ... Eric Wedge on the young, promising lefty: "He's going through a little bit of a dead-arm phase" ...
* Switch-hitting Covelli (Coco) Crisp is swinging a hot bat, going 8 for his last 16 with four runs scored and seven RBI over his last four games ... He hit his first career grand slam on Tuesday night, and made a catch while scaling the Jacobs Field fence in centre ... Crisp: "[M]y web shooter was gone...So I had to jump for it" ... His grand slam snapped an 0-for-15 slump ... He's struggled against the Jays in his career (.200/.273/.300) ... With the arrival of Grady Sizemore, Crisp is once again a part-time player. Still, he remains confident: "If things work out, then someday maybe I'll be a starter...You have to hang in there" ...
* Travis Hafner is playing through a sore neck, but opposing pitchers have been craning their necks all year to turn and watch another Hafner extra-base hit ... The All-Star Game didn't soften him up a bit. He's been flat-out raking since the break (.379/.456/.862) ... He drove in 28 runs in 23 July games ... He crushes righties at a .361/.448/.702 clip, and has put up .350/.435/.720 numbers away from Jacobs Field, which tends to favour righthanded hitters ... Hafner was caught stealing on Saturday after Ben Broussard missed a hit-and-run sign. A friend called him Sunday morning, incredulous that the lumbering Hafner attempted a steal. Hafner: "He asked me if I was trying to pad my fantasy stats" ...
* Matt Lawton, on the other hand, has seen his production drop considerably since the All-Star Game (.230/.304/.295) ... He hasn't homered in 14 games ... He's been successful in his last five steal attempts ... His production against righthanded pitching has been solid this year at .313/.375/.478 ...
* Tomorrow's starter, Scott Elarton, finally got a win on Wednesday after starting his season 0-8 -- and a richly deserved 0-8 ... In his 84 2/3 innings pitched, both his walks allowed (42) and his homers allowed (18) have been unacceptably high ... Although he served up two gopher balls last Wednesday, he did manage to last seven innings and earn the win. Elarton, who hadn't won since September: "I don't know what to say. It's a different feeling, I know that" ... Although he hasn't been great, his numbers away from Coors have been better. He was 0-6, 9.80 as a Rockie (0-4, 11.03 at Coors), and he's been 1-2, 5.61 as an Indian ...
* Make no mistake: Victor Martinez has arrived, and is a bona fide star ... Twelve of the switch-hitter's 17 homers have come from the left side, where he hits a terrific .307/.369/.533 ... He's put up .358/.403/.597 numbers since the All-Star Break ... He's put up excellent .314/.410/.525 numbers with runners in scoring position ... The switch-hitter is completely ambidextrous. Apparently, his left arm could be a cannon behind the plate with practice ...
* Martinez has also been durable, which has been important given the offensive struggles of backup catcher (and ex-Expo) Tim Laker ... Laker's a woeful .106/.192/.191 against righties, although he has hit .375/.409/.475 against lefties in limited action ...
* Cagey veteran Omar Vizquel had his thirteen-game hitting streak snapped with yesterday's 0-for-4 ... He's always been a better hitter from the left side, and this year is no exception. He only hits .259/.292/.350 against lefties ... Always a dazzling gloveman (as opposed to being a dazzling "Love Man"), Vizquel nailed Joe Randa at the plate with a perfect relay from Crisp on Friday as Randa attempted to score the winning run in the bottom of the ninth. Cleveland went on to win in 11 innings, after Vizquel hit a bloop triple that right fielder Matt Stairs thought had dropped foul ... He's seventh on Cleveland's all-time hit list -- a tremendous accomplishment for a player few expected to be even a competent offensive player ...
* Jody Gerut has certainly had a hint of the sophomore slump in 2004 ... Like last year, he's struggled mightily against lefthanded pitching (.203/.316/.316) ... His post-All-Star-Break numbers have been weak at .220/.258/.390 ...
* Wednesday's starter, Jake Westbrook, has really rounded into form this season ... Righties hit just .221 against the ex-Yankee ... He's walked only five batters over his last four starts, and only 40 batters overall in 135 2/3 IP ... He's not the same pitcher on the road (2-5, 3.97) that he is at home (6-0, 2.34) ... At 3.18, his ERA is a surprising second-best in the American League. Only Tim Hudson's is below 3 ...
* The Tribe has been hurting -- badly -- for a reliable reliever ... Finally, Rafael Betancourt became one in July after getting mauled in June ... His combined line from his excellent month of July: 8 2/3 IP in eight appearances, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K ... Betancourt hasn't given up on this season: "It's too early to talk about September, but it's fun to be playing for a playoff spot now" ...
* Bob Wickman has been promoted to closer, practically by a process of elimination ... The Tribe were delighted that he preserved a one-run lead agains the Tigers on Wednesday night, earning his first save since his 2002 Tommy John surgery ... But Cleveland's relief -- in every sense of the word -- was short-lived, as Wickman promptly gagged his inherited lead in the very next game, although the Indians went on to defeat Kansas City in extra innings ... Oddly, Cleveland is 9-0 when Wickman pitches ...
* Long man Chad Durbin has been dreadful, surrendering a .313 opposing batting average ...
* After a promising start, reliever Matt Miller was dreadful in July, yielding a 9.00 ERA over 13 appearances ...
* Lou Merloni, the former darling of the Fenway grandstand, has hit in five of his last six (.368) ... His splits make him about the most appropriate platoon player around: he mashes lefties at a .354/.409/.576 clip, but flails away against righties (.230/.289/.270) ... Merloni strained his right quad on Friday, but will play through it ... Merloni admitted that he misses living his dream by playing in Boston, but not all of the trappings of playing for the Sox: "Certain fans and some in the media put so much pressure on you, the fun is taken away" ...
* All of Andujar candidate Ronnie Belliard's home runs have come away from home ... He hits .319/.382/.473 away from the Jake ... He slams lefties at a .338/.413/.514 rate ... His 34 doubles is already a personal best in what is easily his career year ... Belliard has been excellent defensively as well, and should challenge the O-Dog and Bret Boone for the Gold Glove this season ...
* Ben Broussard has always been a streaky hitter, and he's on a hot one since the break (.382/.512/.735) ... Three of his seven homers have come since the Midsummer Classic ...
* Old friend Casey Blake has been a hot hitter away from home this year, putting up a .297/.363/.516 road line ... After a hot start, Blake was inserted into the cleanup spot -- where he floundered (.207/.333/.319) ... With 17 dingers, Blake has already matched his career best ... His defence has been steadily improving at third base, too -- although he's likely to move to first when Aaron Boone is ready to play ... Blake on whether his career year has been totally unprecedented: "I was kind of the man in Little League" ...
* Thursday's starter will be the infamous Kazuhito Tadano, who has been inconsistent this season ... He was roughed up on Saturday, going 3 2/3 IP while allowing seven runs on eight hits, with two walks and only one strikeout ... ESPN The Magazine ran an excellent profile of the 24-year-old two issues ago ... Righties hit a surprising .311 off him ... Tadano has a low-nineties fastball and a "blooper" that was clocked at 44 mph against Matt Stairs on Saturday ...
* The highly-touted Sizemore, once the jewel of the Expos system, has reached base in ten consecutive games ... Since making his big-league debut on July 21, he's gone .333/.487/.600, with six walks and only four strikeouts ...
* New Cleveland Cavalier Drew Gooden was a childhood friend of C.C. Sabathia ...
* Bench coach Buddy Bell was inducted into the Texas Rangers Hall Of Fame this weekend ...
* Righty Jason Davis was expected to earn a promotion to the big club in the near future, but he was lit up by the Toledo Mud Hens last Wednesday ... Aaron Boone will begin a rehab assignment next week ... Catcher Ryan Ganko is being converted to first base, with Victor Martinez's hold on the catching job secure. Ganko dominated with Class A Kinston, and has hit well with AA Akron ...
* The Tribe has become quite pessimistic about their odds of signing first-rounder Jeremy Sowers of Vanderbilt ... Sources say that his decision to turn down Cleveland's offer of $2.2 million indicates a likelihood that he'll return to college for his senior year ... Director of scouting John Mirabelli: "There is certainly some anxiety on our part" ...
* Eric Wedge said before the deadline that the club could use a righthanded bat, another starter and (of course) some bullpen help, but was fine with the club's inactivity ... GM Mark Shapiro told rival GMs that pitching prospects Fausto Carmona and Adam Miller were completely off the table. Shapiro was aghast that the Mets swapped Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano ... Sabathia: "We have the guys in this room right now to win the A.L. Central" ...
* UPDATE: Chad Durbin will get the start on Thursday, with Tadano relegated to the bullpen ...
Probable Batting Orders
vs. LH
7/DH Crisp
6 Vizquel
4 Belliard
2 Martinez
DH Hafner/7 Lawton
5 Blake
9 Gerut/Lawton
3 Merloni
8 Sizemore
vs. RH
7/DH Lawton
6 Vizquel
DH Hafner/7 Crisp
2 Martinez
3 Broussard
5 Blake
9 Gerut
4 Belliard
8 Sizemore
Pitching Probables
Monday: LH Lee vs. Lilly
Tuesday: RH Elarton vs. Batista
Wednesday: RH Westbrook vs. Towers
Thursday: RH Durbin vs. Bush
Bullpen Usage
Long: Tadano R, M Miller R
Short: Riske R, White R, Howry R
Setup: Betancourt R
Closer: Wickman R
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