Advance Scout: Yankees, August 26-29

Thursday, August 26 2004 @ 03:16 AM EDT

Contributed by: Mike D

The effort's been there for the Jays over the last couple of weeks. Now's the time to get some results, by scoring some runs against a struggling starting staff in what could be a very entertaining four-game set at the Dome.

This week's Scout features a scuffling megastar, a slugger reliving his Little League days, a trio of superstars enduring down years and a closer as dominant as ever.

Oh, and E-----n L----a. Can't forget him.

On to the Advance Scout!

* The Yankees continue to pace the majors in home runs with 191, including a league-best 8 grand slams ... The team also leads baseball in saves with 46 ... More than any other recent Yankee club, the team is winning with hitting and relief pitching -- assuredly not with starting pitching ... That said, New York is tied with Minnesota for the fewest walks allowed in baseball at 323. The Jays have surrendered 478 free passes ... Torre said that his club played "flat" baseball at home last week, but rebounded by taking two of three over the fading Tribe ...

* The Jays have to be ready to swing the bats against tonight's starter, Jon Lieber ... Lieber's only walked 14 batters in his 129 innings pitched ... Strange stat: 51 of his 67 Ks have come against righthanded hitters. Lefties hit .337 off the ex-Cub ... In case there was any doubt about the struggles of the Yankee staff, Lieber is the last starter to earn a win -- on August 13, in Seattle ...

* A-Rod is going through a tough month, which has included offensive struggles (.257/.321/.392, 5 BB, 16 K) and a suspension for his brawl with Jason Varitek ... His defence, which has been superb beyond even what the Yankees were hoping for at third base, has also been a bit more erratic of late ... He continues to rock lefthanded pitching, against whom he hits .318/.419/.701 ... A-Rod isn't concerned, despite only knocking in six runs this month: "It's just one of those things where hits haven't been coming in those situations" ... Gary Sheffield was intentionally walked last night to get to A-Rod. And Eric Wedge's strategy worked, as Rodriguez bounced into a double play ... Torre on A-Rod: "He expects a lot of himself...Right now, it's not working. He's frustrated" ...

* A first-round pick in 1994, C.J. Nitkowski has been given an unfamiliar LOOGY role by Joe Torre ... He's not perfectly suited to it, as lefties hit a respectable .267 off him ... Just two of his eight Yankee outings have been perfect, even though he's only gone longer than one inning once ...

* Derek Jeter has hit in five of his last six (.318) ... Always one of the smartest baserunners in the game, he's been successful on his last fourteen steal attempts ... He's been strikingly ordinary away from home this season (.251/.308/.401) ... He's been a pesky out for the Jays over the years, hitting .320/.388/.454 against Toronto over his career ... Barring a huge stretch run, DJ is likely to set career lows in batting average and OBP ... Jeter was removed from the game after being nailed in the left elbow by a Bob Wickman pitch on Monday, but as is his wont, played the next day after learning it was only a bruise ... On Tuesday, he hit a first-inning homer and stole two bases in the ninth, enabling him to score on a Hideki Matsui single ... He scored his 1,000th career run on Tuesday ...

* Bernie Williams is also posting the lowest BA and OBP numbers since his rookie season ... He's always hit better from the right side, and the split has has persisted this year (.270/.406/.476 vs RH; .254/.331/.402 vs LH) ... He's rocked the Jays at a .333/.436/.667 rate this season, with 10 runs and 11 RBI in his nine games thus far against us ...

* Old friend John Olerud has hit a more-than-respectable .302/.375/.397 since his arrival in New York ... It should be no surprise that he's put up a .402 on-base percentage at SkyDome over his career ...

* Friday's starter will be the incomparable E----n L----a, and you'll enjoy his numbers since his acquisition by the Empire ... Try 0-2, 7.08 in four starts, with 30 hits (including six homers) allowed over 20 1/3 IP ... Opponents are hitting a mere .341 off him ... And don't think the instant-gratification types at Yankee Stadium haven't noticed. Boos cascaded upon him throughout in the fourth inning on Saturday, as he was enduring a shelling at the hands of the Angels. Fans booed a Jose Guillen home run, a Jeff DaVanon homer, and even a long Chone Figgins drive that hooked foul ... His 29 homers allowed between his Chicago and New York starts are third-worst in the league ... L----a: "I'm going through a slump right now" ...

* The equally incomparable Tanyon Sturtze hasn't been much better than mediocre this year, but as an innings-eater, he's been reasonably effective ... Fifteen times, he's gone two or more innings, either in long relief or while spot starting. He has not conceded more than three runs in an outing since his first pinstriped appearance in May ... Despite very similar peripherals, his road ERA is nearly three runs higher (6.37) than his average at home ...

* Gary Sheffield's bat continues to menace pitchers, and he particularly smokes lefties (.336/.450/.603) ... He's on pace to make it an incredible ten straight seasons with an OBP better than .400, and eleven straight seasons with more walks than strikeouts ... 16 of his 32 homers have come since the All-Star Break, even as he's battled shoulder problems. He's slugging .645 since then ... He's scored 22 runs in 23 August games ... Jeter described Sheff as the only consistent hitter on the Yankees this month ... Sheffield belted a two-run, go-ahead homer in the ninth to lead the Yanks to victory on Monday night ... Twice, he's had the opportunity to relieve his Brewers/Marlins glory days at third base. On both occasions, Jeter suffered a late-game injury and A-Rod shifted to short ... Sheffield was delighted to see the footage of his 1980 Little League World Series performance for the first time last week. He batted third and played catcher as Belmont Heights (Fla.) lost 4-3 to their Taiwanese opponents. Sheffield still can't believe his squad was defeated. Old friend Derek Bell was also on the Belmont powerhouse ... Sheffield played in the LLWS as an 11-year-old. Belmont Heights returned to Williamsport in 1981 when Gary was 12, but Sheffield had been suspended for insubordination. The Far East squad from Taiwan won again ...

* Saturday's starter, Kevin Brown, made a rousing return from the DL but has struggled a bit in his last three starts ... He's gone 0-2 with 12 runs and 23 hits allowed in just 18 1/3 combined innings ... He's 6-5, 5.06 all-time against the Jays, but he hasn't started against them in quite a while ... He's 2-3, 7.32 all-time at SkyDome ... Brown is 5-0 against the AL East this year with two no-decisions ...

* Hideki Matsui isn't awful against southpaws, but is much better against righthanders, against whom he's hit 19 of his 24 homers (.310/.404/.568) ... Despite the short porch in the Bronx, Godzilla hits better on the road, where he puts up .322/.437/.524 numbers ... Boosted considerably by his monster Friday against the Jays earlier this month, he's notched a .387/.486/.710 line against Toronto this year ...

* Always a tough out, Jorge Posada has been underperforming -- by his standards -- since the break (.255/.374/.445) ... He needs four more homers to give him five straight 20-dinger years ...

* New York needs Kenny Lofton's glove, but his offensive game has been hurting the club of late. He's just 5 for his last 38 (.132) ... His .309 OBP away from home is a big reason for his demotion to ninth in the lineup ... He's only put up a .227/.280/.351 line since the All-Star Break ... In fitting surroundings, Lofton ripped his 2,000th career hit in front of his longtime fans at Jacobs Field, where he accounted for 587 of those hits and hit .307 ... The crowd at the Jake gave him a warm standing ovation ...

* Mariano Rivera keeps on truckin', converting his last eight saves and putting up this ridiculous line over his last eleven appearances: 1-0, 8 Sv, 11 2/3 IP, 9 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 9 K ... Away from Yankee Stadium, opponents hit just .176 off him with four walks and 24 Ks ... That said, his last blown save -- heck, his last run allowed -- was at SkyDome ...

* His setup man of choice, Flash Gordon, has been human of late ... In three of his last five appearances, he's blown saves -- including one last night ... His .289 opposition average in August makes this his worst month in that category. His second-worst month was April, at only .209 ... Last night, Coco Crisp exploited Gordon's poor defensive reaction time, by successfully executing a drag bunt against the aging reliever ...

* Ruben Sierra remains a nice comeback story, although he's just 3 for his last 17 (.176) ... He slugs .534 away from Yankee Stadium ... Ten of his fourteen dingers have come from the left side ... Sigh: He'd be third on the Jays in home runs ...

* Fellow comebacker Tony Clark has been toothless as a righthanded hitter this season at .200/.256/.307 ... He's just 3 for 20 (.150) in August -- but those three hits are a double and two homers ... He's only put up .210/.242/.371 since the All-Star Break ...

* Sunday's starter, Mike Mussina, has been no more consistent since coming off the DL than he was before he was shut down with stiffness in his elbow ... In his two starts since his return, he's allowed seven runs in just nine combined innings ... Implausibly, righties are hitting .319 off the well-regarded (and well-compensated) veteran ... Although he's 17-9 all-time against the Jays, he's only 6-7 at SkyDome ...

* Backup catcher John Flaherty has played well in his six August spot starts, going 9-for-20 (.450) with three doubles and two homers ...

* Part-time infielder Enrique Wilson has been insipid as a lefthanded hitter this year, going just .190/.241/.304 against righties ...

* Speculation is growing that "El Duque," Orlando Hernandez, might earn a spot in the postseason starting rotation ... He wasn't expected to be anything more than a stopgap. Torre: "[H]e's been a lifesaver for us" ...

* First-round pick Philip Hughes, a righthanded pitcher, broke the toe on his right (pivot) foot, and has been shut down for the rest of the year ...

* The Randy-Johnson-In-Pinstripes dream (or, more accurately, nightmare) finally died last night when an unnamed NL club blocked any potential Unit deals with a waiver claim ...

* Good ol' Shane Spencer is expected to be one of the Yankees' September callups ... The Mets released the square-jawed outfielder after his drunk-driving arrest earlier this summer ... Meanwhile, Steve Karsay (remember him?) was effective in two innings with AAA Columbus last night. He'll be activated on September 1 ... Meanwhile, Felix Heredia continues to get bombed in AA ... Other callups are expected to include Brad Halsey, Bubba Crosby, Homer Bush and Robinson Cano ...

* Poor Jason Giambi continues to be afflicted by ailment after ailment ... He's battling a strained left groin and a respiratory infection, all while recovering from a benign intestinal tumour ... Giambi has been taking light workouts, but is too ill to take full-on batting practice ... Torre on Giambi's potential return: "It's getting more and more remote in my mind" ...

* Only once in American League history have the Red Sox overtaken the Yankees to win a pennant or division title when trailing on August 15. The year? 1904 -- one hundred years ago ...

Probable Batting Orders

vs. LH

8 Williams
6 Jeter
9 Sheffield
5 Rodriguez
2 Posada
7 Matsui
DH Sierra
3 Clark
4 Cairo

vs. RH

DH/8 Williams
6 Jeter
9 Sheffield
5 Rodriguez
7 Matsui
2 Posada/Flaherty
3 Olerud
4 Wilson/Cairo
8/DH Lofton


Pitching Probables

Thursday: RH Lieber vs. Bush
Friday: RH L----a vs. Miller
Saturday: RH Brown vs. Lilly
Sunday: RH Mussina vs. Batista

Bullpen Usage

Long: Sturtze R, Hernandez R
Short: Nitkowski L, Proctor R
Setup: Quantrill R, Gordon R
Closer: Rivera R

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