Let's start with the good news: the Jays no longer seem demoralized: they're fighting hard to try to win every game, and they're not getting five hits a game any more. The bad news is: well, you probably know the bad news already.
Offense
Two numbers say it all: in August, the Jays scored 132 runs and allowed 174, and were outhomered 41 to 26. Ouch. Mommy, make it stop!
Stats are AVG/OBP/SLG, and are from ESPN's web site (a handy reference for stuff like this).
Dave Berg
.333 .364 .571
He went 7-for-21 in August. Everybody's healthy, and the Jays are trying to get playing time for their kids, so there just isn't anything for Berg to do. I'm sure he'd rather be the forgotten man than the lightning rod for the fans' frustrations.
Grade: C+
Kevin Cash
.154 .185 .154
If only he could hit, even a little bit. But he can't. At this point, the Jays are just waiting for Quiroz. I hope he can hit. I hope somebody can hit.
Grade: F
Frank Catalanotto
.189 .271 .208
Obviously, his numbers were affected by his injury, and he wisely called a halt to the proceedings in mid-month. I don't know whether the Jays have a place for him in 2005; they'll need to play the kids in the outfield, and Cat's lack of durability makes it difficult to justify spending millions of dollars on him. But he can hit when he's healthy, he bats left-handed, and he really enjoys playing here. Maybe he can serve a useful role as a spare part and occasional outfield substitute; however, because Gabe Gross bats left, the two of them are probably competing for one spot on the roster.
Grade: D-, with a medical excuse
Carlos Delgado
.317 .411 .653
He's all the way back. He drove in 30 runs this month, which is an extremely impressive accomplishment given how few runners were actually on base in August. He's hitting for average again, and he's drawing walks again.
At this point, I think the Jays should make every effort to sign him, as he may be more affordable than some people think. His summer slump means that his perceived value is lower than his actual value; there are probably GM's out there that haven't noticed that he's back at the top of his game. And there's that whole silly God Bless America thing; GM's that are hard-core Bushies probably think that Carlos is a commie or something.
I even think that the Jays can risk offering him arbitration. For one thing, this gives the Jays more time to negotiate with him. And, if Baltimore or Tampa Bay or somebody offers him huge money, the Jays will get more precious draft picks. And even if the worst case scenario comes true – he accepts arbitration, and is awarded a one-year contract for more than the Jays can afford – the club can always trade him. Heck, if they could find a taker for Mondesi, they can find one for Delgado.
The bottom line is this:
- Players who are among the best in the league are hard to find. If the Jays let Delgado go, they won't be able to find somebody who can hit like Delgado on the open market. (If they're lucky, they might be able to pick up Richie Sexson. Would you trade Delgado for Sexson? Would you trade Delgado for two Sexsons and a Sexson to be named later?)
-The Jays desperately need power.
- Delgado is a hard worker, a solid citizen, and a consummate professional.
- The Jays would lose goodwill if they let him go.
- He seems to like it here.
(An aside: nowadays, star players seem to be expected to be willing to relocate to a contender during their walk year. This trend has become so prevalent that some GM's have stated that they are not willing to sign Delgado because he refused to waive his no-trade clause. When did this start happening?)
Grade: A+
Chris Gomez
.259 .281 .296
One reason why many managers like veterans is that they're known commodities. For example, you can rely on Chris Gomez to hit about .270 or so – albeit with no power or walks – and play a passable defense at shortstop or anywhere else in the infield. Gomez won't give away games by making nervous rookie mistakes. However, he doesn't really do that much to help a team win.
Grade: C-
Gabe Gross
.226 .314 .306
It's really too early to tell what Gross is going to be able to contribute, as he's going through the same growing pains that Alex Rios went through. Gross has plate discipline, which is a good sign. However, he's going to have to either hit for average or hit for power, or he just won't be able to contribute enough to be a regular outfielder at the major-league level.
Grade: D
Eric Hinske
.204 .287 .330
I have a theory: there are two kinds of hitting slumps. Let's call them pitch recognition slumps, and plate coverage slumps. A pitch recognition slump is mostly mental – the batter isn't able to determine that the incoming pitch is out of the strike zone and is therefore unhittable. I assume, to a certain extent, that pitch recognition is, to a certain extent, an inborn talent – some people can just judge the flight of a pitched ball better than others. But, in players that have this ability, a crisis of confidence can lead to swinging wildly at pitches that a hitter normally takes for strikes. Vernon Wells has shown signs of this problem.
The other kind of slump, a plate coverage slump, occurs when a hitter does all the right things right up to the point at which he swings at a pitch. A hitter in this kind of slump works the count and gets the pitcher to throw a ball right into the middle of his hitting zone, but then doesn't do anything with the pitch when he gets it. I think that Eric Hinske is in the middle of one of those slumps right now, as his walk total is still respectable. I would guess that this kind of slump is due to a mechanical problem with his swing; a few hundred hours at the batting cage and in the video room will probably straighten Hinske out.
But I suppose that we shouldn't be too optimistic. Hinske has never hit for a high average in the minors, so .260 to .270 is probably the best we can hope for. If he can do that, and hit 20 to 25 home runs, he'll be a valuable player, given his other abilities. But he has to improve both his power and his average to do that, and it's hard to do both.
Grade: D+
Orlando Hudson
.346 .381 .551
Went on a tear after being moved into the #2 slot. He's not walking at all, so you have to wonder whether he'll keep this up. And he's been a streaky hitter all season. But, right now, we're looking at a player hitting well over .300 with line-drive power, good speed, and world-class defense. If he can keep this up over an entire season, he'll become an MVP candidate.
Did you know that the O-Dog has a higher on-base percentage than Derek Jeter? At this point, I wouldn't trade Hudson for Jeter – for one thing, the O-Dog can actually range to his left and right to field ground balls. And Hudson's as smart as Jeter is. And that's not even factoring in Jeter's salary commitments, which are larger than the total gross national products of several Third World nations.
Grade: A+
Reed Johnson
.272 .314 .420
Seems to have reached a plateau, settling in at the .260 to .270 range with little in the way of power or walks. On a good team, he'd be a useful fourth or fifth outfielder, as there are a lot of things he can do: he can pinch-hit, pinch-run, and play all three outfield positions. Teams can use a player like that. But he's not good enough to start regularly. I wish it were otherwise; I'm a big Sparky fan, and I enjoy watching him play.
Grade: C+
Frank Menechino
.294 .400 .471
When Hudson got hot, Menechino lost most of his playing time. Played well when he was in the lineup. Can now add “emergency pitcher” to his resume. Still looks like Reed Johnson's gloomy older brother.
Grade: B+
Josh Phelps
1-for-4 (a home run)
At some point, I want to write an article that talks about plate coverage in more detail. Phelps's problem was that his plate coverage was not sufficient: there are certain kinds of strikes that he just can't handle. I can't blame the Jays for trading him away – he's had two years now to prove himself, and he just hasn't done it. Still, you have to wonder whether Phelps is just one adjustment away from stardom. Given the Jays' luck recently, I wouldn't be surprised if somebody on the Cleveland coaching staff, by blind luck or good fortune, finds the missing key that turns Phelps into an effective masher. If this happens, I will be convinced that the Jays have angered the baseball gods in some way or another, and are being punished in return. Maybe it's the turf.
Grade: Gone
Alex Rios
.287 .328 .400
Let's not get too excited: he's still got a long way to go. His pitch recognition isn't that good yet, as he drew only seven walks all month. His batting average is respectable, but contending teams have outfielders who hit at least that well. And he's not hitting home runs yet.
Having said all that, you can see why people are so impressed by him. He's showing doubles power, which usually turns into home run power given time, and he's gunning down baserunners with a strong and accurate arm in right field. I still think he could become the next Dave Winfield. However, if he doesn't step forward, he could become the next DeWayne Wise. Recall that Wise looked confident out there too.
Grade: B-
Vernon Wells
.210 .266 .360
To continue with the theme: V-Dub's problem, in my opinion, is that he never learned plate discipline because he always had excellent plate coverage. If you can whack pitches down around the ankles off the left-field wall, you never need to learn to let such pitches go by. Unfortunately, due to injuries, and possibly due to pressing a bit, Wells is no longer hitting everything thrown at him. It may take him a bit of time to pick up some the skills he's never developed, so the road ahead may be a long one. Unless, of course, he snaps out of his slump and starts hitting everything again. Heck, not everybody needs plate discipline: after all, Vlad doesn't have any.
Grade: D+
Chris Woodward
.203 .262 .254
At this point, I think the Jays need to determine whether Woody can actually be useful before deciding whether to discard him or not. At this point, I don't hold out much hope – even if he can get into a rhythm at the plate and in the field, he'll likely get hurt again. It's that lack of durability that really does him in. If he washes out at short, somebody will likely offer him a job as a utility infielder somewhere: he can play all four infield positions, and has enough power to serve as the number-two or three pinch-hitter off the bench. He's stretched as a shortstop even at the best of times, though, so I can't see him holding a job as a regular. His grand slam was his first home run of the season and his only extra-base hit of the month, and he can be counted on to subtly mess up one play a game in the field.
Grade: F
Gregg Zaun
.250 .353 .361
Slowly turning back into Gregg Zaun, after spending part of the summer disguised as SuperZaun. His on-base percentage is still reasonable, especially for a catcher. I enjoy watching him play, as he is the very model of a world-weary veteran player who has seen it all. Is good enough on defense and at the plate to serve as a #2 catcher behind Quiroz; I'd re-sign him, assuming he wants to come back. (That's always something you have to factor into the Jays' roster moves: does the player actually want to play for a team where the turf is bouncy and painful to slide on, and in a city where the money is all funny colours, many of the writers are cranky, the gridlock is frustrating, the home town fans are sparsely distributed and oh-so-quiet – the Cheer Club notwithstanding - and you have to deal with clearing Customs all the time?)
Grade: B-
Pitching
It's easy to see what the problem was this month: everybody in the bullpen, except for Justin Speier, was awful. And Justin Miller was awful. And Miguel Batista was awful most of the time. And Josh Towers was awful some of the time. And Roy Halladay wasn't there. The staff ERA was 6.13.
Stats are IP/H/BB/SO/ERA, and once again are from ESPN's web site.
Miguel Batista
34.2 44 18 11 6.49
His statistics scream fatigue: he fanned only 11 batters in 34.2 innings in August, as opposed to 30 in 38.1 innings in May and 21 in 37.1 innings in June. It's worth remembering that he has never pitched 200 innings in a season; before this year, he's always spent at least part of the season in the bullpen. Some of his struggles may be a statistical illusion resulting from having to face better-hitting teams more often this month – but, if I were in the Jays' front office, I'd send him for a battery of tests right now. The team is committed to him for the next two years; at this point, it wouldn't hurt to shut him down for the season, if necessary, and save him for 2005.
Grade: D+
David Bush
29.2 36 6 26 3.94
It's hard to believe that Bush is a raw rookie; he's pitching like a major-league veteran. He changes speeds, he throws lots of interesting bending pitches, and he can pop a fastball when needed. His K/IP ratio even went up. Basically, he's Josh Towers with much better stuff. At this point, you can just pencil him in every fifth day and not worry about him. Cursed by a lack of run support.
Grade: A-
Vinnie Chulk
12 19 8 11 9.00
Like Frasor, the Vincinerator's K/IP ratio is still good, so he hasn't lost his stuff; they're just hitting it more often. I suppose we should recall that Chulk wasn't rated as a prospect before this year, so he's already accomplished more than we should realistically expect. Needs some TLC and some outings against teams with payrolls in the tens of millions rather than the hundreds of millions of dollars.
Grade: D-
Sean Douglass
17 16 14 14 7.41
His numbers suggest that he possesses a collection of unguided missiles. But it's easier to teach somebody with good stuff to throw strikes than it is to teach a control pitcher to throw harder. At this point, I'd consider putting him in the rotation in September, to see what he can do in an extended audition. Got burned at least once by the plate umpire's squeezing the strike zone on him.
Grade: F
Bob File
1 1 0 1 0.00
Pitched an inning at the end of the month, and got everybody out. The Jays desperately need somebody who can get them out in the sixth, seventh and eighth (not to mention the first through fifth); if File shows that he can do this, he can lock up a job for himself.
Grade: Incomplete
Jason Frasor
11.2 20 11 11 9.26
I'm just speculating, but I think the problem here is that he isn't used to occasional failure yet. Closers need to be resilient enough to survive a bad outing and the realization that their efforts have singlehandedly turned a W into an L; some pitchers with closer stuff can't cope with the mental strain. (Cliff Politte, for example, seemed to buckle under the pressure.) John Gibbons appears to be a very positive person, and he might be able to help Frasor adjust to the strains of his job. Frasor's K/IP ratio is still good, which indicates that he hasn't lost his stuff.
Grade: C
Kevin Frederick
16.2 22 12 11 8.10
I've heard people say nice things about him, but they sure don't show up in his numbers. People who complained about Terry Adams are now seeing what the alternatives are. He may do better when he's found his sea legs.
Grade: F
Roy Halladay
N/A
Just reminding you that he still exists. At this point, I'd let him rest for the rest of the season. What's the point of bringing him back now?
Grade: MIA
Kerry Ligtenberg
17.1 24 8 13 7.79
On yesterday's pre-game show, John Gibbons gave Ligtenberg credit for always being willing to take the ball. Perhaps he should stop being so willing: there's no point in going out there when you're going to give up four hits, three walks and two home runs while retiring nobody. Pitches well some of the time, which is obscured by his semi-regular total meltdowns. One of the things the Jays can do in September is give Ligtenberg regular work in pressure situations; they need to know whether to cut him loose in the off-season, and right now the jury is still out (though they're rather close to an unfavourable verdict, I would think). By the way, the Jays have a presidential pitching staff: they can bring in Kerry to relieve Bush.
Grade: F
Ted Lilly
41 30 21 39 3.95
I suspect that the effects of his 126-pitch shutout will be felt for some time, but you can't blame the Jays for leaving him in there. When Ted is old and gray, he'll remember having shut out the Red Sox. Pitching eight shutout innings against the Red Sox just isn't the same. Had his usual month: some good outings, and some outings in which he can't find the range. K/IP good even if you don't include that one dominating start against Boston.
Grade: B+
Dave Maurer
1.1 6 5 1 54.00
Looked hopelessly lost out there. Perhaps he's learned something, and may use these harsh lessons to improve his pitching in the future. But I somehow suspect that this is the last we will ever see of him. Makes Juan Acevedo look like Mariano Rivera.
Grade: F-, or perhaps G
Justin Miller
22.2 31 19 6 7.15
Gave up 19 walks and struck out only 6 in 22.2 innings. Is the polar opposite of Josh Towers: Miller has great stuff, but right now has no idea where it's going. If you could combine Towers' brain and Miller's body, you'd have an ace starter. (And if ifs and buts were candied nuts, we'd all have a very merry Christmas.) Even if Miller finds that lost chord, he'll probably injure himself again. At this point, I don't think the Jays can expect anything from him.
Grade: F
Justin Speier
15 11 7 13 1.80
The Last Man Standing in the bullpen; right now, he seems to be the only reliever who can actually get people out. Is slowly being eased back into the closer spot. All his August numbers were very good; did you know that his ERA was over five runs lower than that of any other Jays reliever? When was the last time you saw a gap that large? Gibbons will have to resist the impulse to overuse him; after all, he's been hurt once this year already.
Grade: A
Josh Towers
32 45 5 12 5.63
As you probably know by now, Toronto is experiencing its coolest summer since 1992, and I'm beginning to think that this is why Towers was doing so well earlier this year. Balls tend to travel farther and faster in hot weather, and, for a while, Josh wasn't giving up home runs at his usual taterrific rate. Then, he faced the Red Sox on a humid day, and got beaten like a gong. He's the same pitcher he always has been: marginal stuff, terrific control, pitches well when he has everything together, gets absolutely clobbered when he does not. He tends to run out of gas in about the sixth inning, which strains the bullpen somewhat. And the bullpen does not need to be strained. I still rate him as no more than a fourth starter at best, and preferably a fifth. But every team needs a guy like this.
Grade: C
Overall
The Jays have two short-term and two long-term problems right now. The short-term problems:
- Some of the club's best hitters are underperforming, especially Wells and Hinske. (Naturally, by coincidence, these are the two players signed to long-term contracts. J.P. probably has a standing order with his pharmacist for antacid tablets.)
- The bullpen has gone south (except for Speier).
These problems will sort themselves out; Wells and Hinske aren't bad ballplayers, and either the bullpen will get better or it will be gone. But the long-term problems are harder to solve:
- It's been mentioned often enough, but the Jays have a smaller payroll than the Yankees and the Red Sox. And that's not likely to change any time soon. Will the Jays be forced to go with Crozier at first base next year?
- To be successful, you have to not only be smart, but lucky. And the Jays have had nothing but bad luck for quite some time now.
In a strange way, the Blue Jays are an accurate reflection of the city in which they live. The city, like the Jays, is underfunded: the streets are full of potholes, and many of the buses are twenty years old. And, just as the Jays' plight is met with indifference outside the Jays' fan base, nobody outside Toronto really cares about its problems. (As any Torontonian will tell you, virtually everybody in Canada hates Toronto, and is more than happy to force the city to fend for itself, making it pay for virtually everything out of its property taxes. But that's a topic beyond the scope of this discussion.)
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