We're down to the final two weeks of the season and there is still no clear favourite for the NL wildcard. One thing that has changed is that the Giants have crept up on the Dodgers (2.5 games behind) and with 6 games remaining against their natural enemies, Bonds, Schmidt & Associates have a decent shot at catching the Depodestas.
Current Standings, Expected Wins, Strength of Schedule ...
San Francisco Giants 12 remain, 84-66, 89.8, .560 SoS (Hou 3, LA 6, SD 3)
Chicago Cubs 13 remain, 83-66, 90.3, .481 SoS (Pit 3, Mets 3, Cin 4, Atl 3)
Houston Astros 12 remain, 83-67, 89.3, .517 SoS (SF 3, Mil 3, Stl 3, Col 3)
San Diego Padres 12 remain, 80-70, 87.4, .441 SoS (LA 3, Arz 6, SF 3)
Florida Marlins 13 remain, 79-70, 85.6, .507 SoS (Phi 7, Atl 3, Mon 3)
Philadelphia Phillies 13 remain, 76-73, 83.2, .488 SoS (Fla 7, Mon 3, Pit 3)
Let's go in reverse order:
The Phillies are out of the race - in a practical sense. They can win no more thn 89 games and that won't be enough if the Giants win at least half their remaining games or the Cubs take 7 of 13 against a relatively easy schedule.
The Marlins need to get hot - fast. They'll need to win 11 of 13 to have a realistic shot, so they'll have to dominate the Phillies the rest of the way.
Padres fans have more hope. Their team starts a 9 game homestand tonight. Four out of Six or better against the Dodgers and Giants will vault them back into the thick of the race. However, they can't control what the Cubs will do. A strong performance by the Cubs the rest of the way will sink the Padres' chances to near zero.
The Astros have charged to within a game of the Giants and host San Francisco in a crucial series beginning tonight. Two out of three is a must for Houston - that will give them a fighting chance to keep up with the Cubs.
The Giants lead the wildcard standings, but still trail the Cubs in expected wins because of a tougher schedule. All 12 of their remain contests are against playoff contenders.
The Cubs must be feeling pretty good after a split with the Marlins yesterday. The only tough team they face is the Braves, who figure to have very little to play for by the time they visit Wrigley for the final weekend of the regular season.
Tuesday to Thursday Scheduled Starters ...
Houston at San Francisco:
Carlos Hernandez v Brett Tomko
Roy Oswalt v Noah Lowry
Brandon Backe v Jason Schmidt
Los Angeles at San Diego
Jeff Weaver v Adam Eaton
Brad Penny v Jake Peavy
Wilson Alvarez v David Wells
Philadelphia at Florida
Cory Lidle v Dontrelle Willis
Eric Milton v Logan Kensing
Vicente Padilla v Josh Beckett
Chicago at Pittsburgh
Kerry Wood v Josh Fogg
Carlos Zambrano v Oliver Perez
Greg Maddux v John Van Benschoten
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