2004 Farm Report: Top 30 Prospects
Thursday, September 23 2004 @ 03:44 AM EDT
Contributed by: Jordan
The end of the 2004 minor-league season also signals the arrival of the Batter’s Box Post-Season Top 30 Prospects List. It was constructed with invaluable assistance from all members of the Minor-League Reports Team: Gerry McDonald, Mike Green, Ryan01, Jonny German and Craig Burley -- especially regarding the rankings, which were challenging this time around. A separate big thank you to Jonny, who assembled all the stats in HTML format. Bonus: Click here for an exclusive Batter's Box interview with Blue Jays’ Director of Player Development Dick Scott.
This year’s report is a little different from what we’ve done before. To start with, you’ll notice that numerous players are conspicuous by their absence. Specifically, you won’t find Dave Bush, Gabe Gross, Russ Adams, Guillermo Quiroz or Eric Crozier (or of course, Alex Rios) anywhere on this Top 30. Simply put, these players figure to spend a good part of next season in the majors, and for the purposes of this list, they no longer qualify as prospects. Had I included these players, they would have crowded the upper reaches of the rankings, pushing aside noteworthy players at the far end of the list. And really, there’s not much more to tell you about these guys that you haven’t read here before, or that you haven’t already seen for yourself at Skydome.
We should take a moment to note the depth of this farm system, which sent so many prospects to the majors this year (with assistance, admittedly, from the incumbents in Toronto). Eight Blue Jay minor-leaguers were called up to Toronto in 2004 -- a total that doesn’t even include Jason Frasor or Eric Crozier, who came over from other organizations. And of course, another top prospect (Dustin McGowan) was lost to arm surgery. Accordingly, it shouldn’t be surprising that this Top 30 list is not as strong as its pre-season predecessor. You don’t lose that much talent to the majors and stay as strong as when you began. But it’s also a testament to the Jays’ scouting and farm directors that the falloff isn’t nearly as great as one would suppose -- there is still impressive depth here, particularly on the pitching side.
You may be wondering if the afore-mentioned talent drop-off contributed to the fact that the pre-season Top 40 has morphed into a post-season Top 30. Partly that’s the case, but mostly, I found that there wasn’t much to be gained by ranking prospects past 30 -- the skills differential is not great enough to justify an ordering system beyond that. Baseball America limits itself to a Top 30 each year, and in this, as in many other things, I think they’ve got it right.
You may also be wondering why I’m not following my usual end-of-month Farm Report methodology of highlighting numerous players from every farm team. I’ll level with you: I just don’t have the time. But I did produce an extensive report at the beginning of August, so if you’re looking for a player who’s not in this report, check that one out and you may yet find him. If he’s not on either list, then he’s not currently on my radar (though if he’s in Auburn or Pulaski, that might be because I’m leery of results from that low down in the system -- with certain exceptions, as you’ll momentarily see).
A couple of points that I made in my pre-season list are worth making again. First, I’m neither Dick Scott nor John Sickels: these reports are done based mostly on statistics, buttressed by second-hand scouting reports and other information passed on to me by interested observers. I'd welcome reader feedback, positive and negative both, but keep in mind I'm not holding myself out as an expert here. Second, these are all real people on this list -- each more talented than me, each with a dream of being a big-league ballplayer, each with family and friends throughout this hemisphere. Nothing I write here is meant to denigrate that talent, those dreams, and those friends, even if what I write is not very positive. These lists are a way to keep Batter’s Box readers updated on the progress of key Blue Jays prospects; no more, no less.
Ready? Here we go. (All listed ages are as of October 1, 2004. For full birthdates of most prospects, check the August Farm Report.)
1. Aaron Hill, SS, 22.6
2004 New Hampshire
480 AB, .279/.368/.410, 78 R, 26 2B, 2 3B, 11 HR, 80 RBI, 63 BB, 61 K, 3 SB, 2 CS
The 2003 first-round pick out of LSU is also first on the Blue Jays’ prospect list. Hill delivered a solid performance at Double-A in his first full professional season, despite being young for the league. At the plate, he displayed excellent bat control and strike-zone knowledge, with hints of the power that’s still developing. His home park in Manchester was often blamed for the lack of pop in his batting line. But despite its generous foul areas and difficult hitting background (in the first half of the season, anyway), Gill Stadium played as a basically neutral hitters’ park. Here are Hill’s home and road numbers in 2004:
Location G AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K
HOME 66 .257 226 28 58 11 1 5 40 31 34
ROAD 69 .300 253 50 76 15 1 6 40 32 27
As you can see, only Hill’s batting average suffered at home -- his power numbers were essentially the same (in fact, a higher percentage of his hits went for extra bases at home than on the road), and his walks and strikeouts were virtually identical. Still, it’s good to see an even .300 average on the road.
Defensively, Hill is not widely considered to be major-league calibre at shortstop, and some scouts expect him to end up at second or third base in the majors. But they said the same thing about Russ Adams, and Brian Butterfield is doing great work with him in Toronto. If Adams claims shortstop as his own for the next few years, the Jays may have to consider alternative spots for Hill. Now, 2B and 3B are of course occupied in Toronto, for the moment anyway, so it’s pretty clear that something’s gotta give there. I think the organization likes both Hill and Adams, and would keep both if possible in the major-league infield. But it’s also going to be a busy off-season, and these two young men are going to be very attractive to a lot of teams.
What we do know is this: Hill is a great talent and an extraordinary worker, and his bat and his leadership skills make him a very valuable player -- his makeup, as the saying goes, is off the charts. I sure would like to see him and Adams in the Toronto infield for the better part of this decade.
2. Josh Banks, RHP, 22.2
2004 New Hampshire
6-6, 5.03, 17 GS, 91.1 IP, 89 H, 28 BB, 76 K, 15 HR, 19.5% KBF
2004 Dunedin
7-1, 1.80, 11 GS, 60 IP, 49 H, 8 BB, 60 K, 4 HR, 25.3% KBF
On July 1, this is what the Eastern League thought of Josh Banks:0-2, 8.39, 24 IP, 28 H, 14 BB, 17 K, 4 HR
From July 1 to the end of the season, this is what Josh Banks thought of the Eastern League:6-4, 3.76, 67 IP, 61 H, 14 BB, 59 K, 11 HR
Banks, who tore up the Florida State League in his first 11 starts of 2004, was shelled in his first 6 appearances as a Fisher Cat, and many eyebrows were raised. But Banks rebounded to make believers out of skeptics, building terrific K/IP and BB/K rates for a young 22-year-old in Double-A. Banks was actually more dominant than those late-summer numbers would indicate: he sandwiched several great starts around a few pretty bad ones, as he continued to learn how to be consistent (he still gives up too many home runs, for example). But overall, Banks displayed both mental toughness and a growing mastery of his arsenal, which includes a low-90s fastball, a terrific slider, and a developing change.
Calling a guy “the best pitching prospect in the organization” has been a kiss of death lately, so I won’t curse Banks the same way Dustin McGowan and Francisco Rosario have been cursed in the past. I will say that he should return to New Hampshire in 2005 and, good health and good weather permitting, reach Syracuse by mid-summer. By June 2006, he should be in Toronto. To get a sense of what he could offer when he gets there, check out Dave Bush -- and remember that Banks is two years younger, and will still be 22 when next season begins.
3. Brandon League, RHP, 21.6
2004 New Hampshire
6-4, 2 Sv, 3.38, 41 G, 10 GS, 104 IP, 92 H, 41 BB, 90 K, 3 HR, 20.2% KBF
Is he a starter? Is he a reliever? No matter what his role, Brandon League is just plain exciting. He was a 21-year-old facing more experienced competition at Double-A, getting switched back and forth between the pen and the rotation, and really having command of just one pitch. Despite all that, he more than held his own and dominated at times, posting very promising numbers overall. It helps that his one pitch is a 99-mph sizzling fastball thrown from a low ¾ angle, death on righthanders and not a whole lot of fun for lefties either. He was voted MVP of the Eastern League Championship Series last week, and one observer who watched him save the final game said League could have retired any major-league hitter that night. A week later, he did just that in Yankee Stadium in a scoreless big-league debut.
All League needs now, in addition to good health, is time -- time to add more pitches and gain command of them, and time to continue to mature physically and otherwise. The role switch -- from rotation to bullpen and back to the rotation -- served to keep League’s innings under control and to give the Jays a chance to see if he excelled in either role. He was slated to start next season in the rotation, probably at New Hampshire; if he remains a starter, he probably won’t see Syracuse till the end of the year. Because of his youth, I figured that’s what the Jays would do. But by calling League up to the big club with two weeks left in the season, they served notice that his arm is of interest to them right now. If the team decides he can help out in the big-league bullpen next year, he’ll be fast-tracked.
4. Francisco Rosario, RHP, 24.0
2004 New Hampshire
2-4, 4.31, 12 GS, 48 IP, 48 H, 16 BB, 45 K, 6 HR, 21.6% KBF
2004 Dunedin
1-1, 4.67, 6 GS, 17.1 IP, 16 H, 11 BB, 16 K, 2 HR, 20.4% KBF
Had this list been compiled just one month ago, it’s likely Rosario wouldn’t have cracked the Top 10. He was struggling terribly in his recovery year following Tommy John surgery, was in and out of the trainer’s room with various niggling pains, and had displayed little on the mound that reminded anyone of the vast potential he displayed in 2002. Then came August: 6 GS, 30 IP, 28 H, 8 BB, 33 K
Suddenly, Francisco got his groove back, and he kept that groove going right through the playoffs, firing 6 shutout innings in the Fisher Cats’ championship-clinching victory. His stuff was already there, but what finally appeared was the command and the consistency to turn it into something special. These still aren’t fabulous numbers -- his walks are still a little too high, just as they were in 2002 before his injury, and he needs to miss more bats. But we’re finally seeing again what Rosario has to offer: high-90s heat and a devastating change-up, both thrown with increasing command. After he started pitching well last month, he was quoted to the effect that his injury weighed heavily on his mind earlier in the season, robbing him of confidence. Well, it’s back.
The Jays won’t baby Rosario: after all that rehab, he’s much bigger and stronger than the skinny kid who landed on the operating table two years ago. He’s 24 years old, and the time is now for the Blue Jays to find out just what they have here. Depending on his performance in the Arizona Fall League (a mental as much as a physical challenge; it was in the AFL that he incurred his injury), I expect him to start 2004 at Syracuse, though a poor spring training could land him back in New Hampshire to start the season. JP Ricciardi spoke of Rosario earlier this year as a Dontrelle Willis type, who could conceivably rise rapidly through the system and hit the majors in one season. It’s pretty clear from that and other indicators that the club has high expectations for Rosario, and he’ll be under the gun to prove that he merits them.
5. Shaun Marcum, RHP, 22.9
2004 Dunedin
3-2, 3.12, 12 GS, 69.1 IP, 74 H, 4 BB, 72 K, 6 HR, 25.2% KBF
2004 Charleston
7-4, 3.19, 13 GS, 79 IP, 64 H, 16 BB, 83 K, 7 HR, 26.2% KBF
Four pitchers in the Top 5? Yup, and if that doesn’t bring the gods of TINSTAAP down on my head, nothing will. Partly, this is because most of the great crop of prospects who graduated to Toronto in 2004 were position players. And partly, it’s because the Jays drafted a lot of pitchers in Ricciardi’s first two years on the job, and the fruits of those efforts are now rising through the system.
Marcum pulled off the remarkable trick of graduating to the Florida State League and actually improving his performance, no mean feat after his stellar full-season debut at Charleston. That BB/K stat at Dunedin is not a misprint: like Jayce Tingler’s walk rates, it’s so surreal that you almost find yourself laughing in disbelief. Amazing as it is, though, it’s of course not going to last -- pitchers just don’t strike out 18 times as many hitters as they walk. Marcum will turn 23 just before Christmas, and it’s time he faced the Double-A Acid Test; I think he’ll pass with honours. As I’ve said here before, Marcum is posting better numbers at a younger age than Dave Bush did when he came through the system, and Marcum’s fastball/slider combo is reminiscent of Josh Banks’ repertoire. If Marcum is close to as good as he appears -- and remember, this college shortstop is still learning his craft -- he will move up fast.
6. Gustavo Chacin, LHP, 23.10
2004 Syracuse
2-0, 2.31, 2 GS, 11.2 IP, 16 H, 3 BB, 14 K, 0 HR, 26.6% KBF
2004 New Hampshire
16-2, 2.86, 25 GS, 141.2 IP, 113 H, 49 BB, 109 K, 15 HR, 18.6% KBF
Anyone who saw this coming needs to give up prospect watching and move into something more important, like meteorology or Oscar predictions. (Actually, Batter’s Box contributor Jabonso did see it coming, in a post earlier this year. Jabonso, who do you like for Best Director?) Chacin started out 2004 at Double-A for the fourth consecutive season, and even though he was rushed there as a 19-year-old in 2000, that’s normally a sure sign of a faded prospect. But then something remarkable happened -- three things, really, all beginning with C: Command, Confidence, and a Cut Fastball. Chacin became nigh-unhittable, sending Eastern League batters back to the dugout time and again with help from a stutter-step delivery that hides the ball till the last second. His 16-2 record there is of course gaudy, but the ERA and the H/IP can’t be denied. He also did well in a brief stint at Syracuse, and delivered an astonishingly strong debut on short notice at Yankee Stadium.
There are flags, certainly. The fourth-time-around-the-league thing is one of them. Another thing that I’m (sometimes maddeningly) consistent about is BB/K and K/IP rates for pitching prospects. Chacin is outstanding in neither category, and that gives me cause for concern. Now, here are two arguments against that. First, Chacin’s K/IP went up significantly as the season went on: he struck out 52 batters in 56 innings after Canada Day. Second, every rule has exceptions. Dave Gassner didn’t impress anyone in those categories either, yet there he is, pitching very effectively for the Twins’ AAA team in Rochester and looking more like a useful major leaguer every day. If Chacin gets hitters out, who cares if the stats aren’t as striking as they “ought” to be? Let’s see what 2005 brings -- unless another team comes calling in trade. As this list makes abundantly clear, the Jays, who have at least three positions in the major-league rotation tied up for the next two years, have the arms to spare.
7. Dustin McGowan, RHP, 22.6
2004 New Hampshire
2-0, 4.06, 6 GS, 31 IP, 24 H, 15 BB, 29 K, 4 HR, 22.0% KBF
This is a first for me -- including an injured player on a pre-or post-season prospect ranking -- but it only makes sense. McGowan, who underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this summer, was the consensus #2 prospect in the organization and was ripping through the Eastern League as a 22-year-old when disaster struck. TJ surgery is now so common as to be considered almost routine, and the prospects for a full recovery are very strong. In fact, since the injury occurred on a pre-existing tear, it’s almost just as well that McGowan had the surgery now, when he’s younger and better able to recuperate.
All that said, Francisco Rosario should be considered a cautionary tale here: following his surgery in 2002, Rosario struggled mightily for most of 2004 and seems to have only just gotten back to where he needs to be. There are no guarantees with arms, especially not those that have undergone ligament transplant surgery. If all goes well, McGowan should be back on a mound next spring or summer and could conceivably be a competitive force in the minor leagues by the end of 2005. But keep your fingers crossed.
8. Jamie Vermilyea, RHP, 22.7
2004 New Hampshire
3-2, 5 Sv, 2.51, 20 G, 6 GS, 57.1 IP, 43 H, 12 BB, 39 K, 2 HR, 17.2% KBF
2004 Dunedin
5-1, 0 Sv, 3.09, 18 G, 6 GS, 55.1 IP, 54 H, 13 BB, 37 K, 4 HR, 15.9% KBF
Sometimes, a prospect is rated highly as much for his proximity to the majors and his expected ability to help the big-league club as he is for his raw talent. That’s how Vermilyea, who has four very good pitches but no single outstanding offering, ends up in the Top Ten. Like Brandon League, he was switched back and forth from the pen to the rotation; in fact, he was moved to the bullpen shortly after throwing a 7-inning perfect game. Not many pitchers would accept that kind of “demotion,” but Vermilyea appears to be a smart guy who understands the developmental plan behind his role switches.
Vermilyea posted solid numbers, although like Chacin, the overall BB/K and K/IP numbers aren’t as great as you’d like them to be. But he should open the 2005 campaign in the Syracuse bullpen, and the Blue Jays have made it clear they’re going to be looking inside the organization for low-cost relief alternatives. With Adam Peterson’s implosion, Brandon League figures to be the only pitcher closer to a big-league bullpen spot than Vermilyea -- and I really think League should be starting in the minors, not relieving in the majors, at 21. Vermilyea’s versatility in the minors and his overall good command would make him an ideal long and middle reliever sometime in 2005.
9. John Hattig, 3B, 24.7
2004 AA Totals
406 AB, .296/.391/.532, 77 R, 28 2B, 1 3B, 22 HR, 65 RBI, 59 BB, 109 K, 3 SB, 4 CS
Acquired from the Red Sox in the Terry Adams trade, Hattig immediately became one of the Blue Jays’ better hitting prospects. A third baseman who is already drawing predictions of a move to first base, Hattig has always had an excellent batting eye and has delivered solid batting averages in the .280-.290 range. But this year, he added power -- he cranked out 22 homers between Portland and New Hampshire, a huge improvement on his previous career high of seven.
But he’ll be 25 next spring, and he has a history of taking half a season to adjust to a new level. By that reasoning, assuming he’ll start 2005 at Syracuse, it may take him till the end of the year before he has the kind of numbers that make him attractive as a late-season call-up and bench player. Now, of course, if his power surge reflects an equal acceleration in his learning curve, then he could bust out early for the Skychiefs.
At the moment, no one’s quite sure if what the Jays have here is Kevin Youkilis Lite or Simon Pond Heavy. The Jays intend to find out in a hurry, as Hattig is one of three position players (along with Vito Chiaravalotti and Aaron Hill) to play in the Arizona Fall League this autumn. We’ll have some more data to work with when the AFL season ends. No matter what Hattig does, however, the Jays won the Terry Adams trade the minute JP Ricciardi hung up the phone.
10. David Purcey, LHP, 22.5
2004 Auburn
1-0, 1.50, 3 G, 2 GS, 12 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 13 K, 0 HR, 30.2% KBF
Another first -- ranking a player this high who has exactly 12 professional innings under his belt. Drafted in June and signed very late in the season, Purcey made a last-minute debut with the Auburn Doubledays. The Blue Jays were in no hurry to get him onto a mound -- he had a solid workload in college, and it wasn’t like the Doubledays needed the help during their 50-24 romp through the NY-Penn League. Purcey is a giant of a player (6’5”, 240 lbs) with a power curve, a power fastball, and some mechanical issues. “If he’s able to get out over his front side a little bit more and get some extension, we think he’s going to be able to pound the strike zone,” Ricciardi told us back in June. “He’s a guy who reminds us of [Jeremy] Affeldt, with that kind of power.”
Purcey has tremendous raw stuff -- unlike the more polished command pitchers previously drafted by the Jays (e.g., Bush, Marcum, Banks), Purcey has clear ace potential. But he will need good coaching and constant attention to ensure he becomes the pitcher he can be. In his few appearances in the NY-Penn League, Purcey was as dominant as you’d expect at that level, including a perfect outing in one of his starts. He could begin 2005 as the nominal ace of the new Low-A Lansing Lugnuts, or, if the Jays think he’s ready, they could promote him directly to Dunedin and see how he does there. Health is always a concern, but if Purcey clicks with the instruction he’ll be sure to receive, he could advance rapidly up the organizational ladder.
11. Adam Peterson, RHP, 25.4
2004 Syracuse
2-2, 0 Sv, 12.86, 19 G, 0 GS, 21 IP, 38 H, 16 BB, 19 K, 6 HR, 16.2% KBF
2004 New Hampshire
2-2, 15 Sv, 2.54, 27 G, 0 GS, 28.1 IP, 20 H, 10 BB, 38 K, 1 HR, 33.2% KBF
The season couldn’t end fast enough for Peterson, who went from the thrill of being the first Ricciardi draftee to make it to the majors, to the nadir of a pummelling in the big leagues and an even worse brutalizing upon demotion to the International League. Like a monster home run that was still rising when it hit the facing of the mezzanine, Peterson’s ERA was still soaring when the Skychiefs’ season mercifully came to an end. The Blue Jays braintrust has had many more good ideas than bad ones -- but the two-level promotion of a pitcher who was dominating AA without yet having gained command of his repertoire was on the wrong side of the ledger.
There’s no reason to believe the damage done to Peterson is permanent, however; Roy Halladay came back from a worse experience, albeit with plenty of attention. I assume the Blue Jays won’t simply send Peterson home to stew over his terrible last two months all winter; a little off-season coaching and conversation ought to help him forget the latter part of 2004 (except, of course, all the reasons he went so badly off the rails; he’ll want to remember those). Peterson has electric stuff, but he has very little professional pitching experience, and it may well be that he had never learned how to pitch himself out of a bad place. He should spend all of 2005 at Syracuse learning just that: how to react, how to adjust, and how to beat experienced hitters. His flight has been delayed, but I don’t think it’s been cancelled.
12. Vito Chiaravalloti, 1B, 23.11
2004 Dunedin
447 AB, .266/.376/.438, 63 R, 33 2B, 1 3B, 14 HR, 71 RBI, 69 BB, 110 K, 0 SB, 1 CS
He injured his wrist early in the season, and he played in the power-sapping Florida State League. These are the two reasons normally given to explain why Big Vito, a professional hitter who captured the NY-Penn Triple Crown in his 2003 debut, posted much less spectacular numbers in his first full-season campaign. Both of these things are true, and his continued strong walk rate is very reassuring, but that doesn’t mean Jays fans should be entirely sanguine.
Chiaravalotti’s batting average fell off a cliff in August -- just .139. There was no report of an injury, and I suppose it could have been just a monumental slump, but that is a really bad stretch for such an accomplished hitter. He’ll be 24 when he starts next season at New Hampshire, and he can’t afford to have any more months that poor. Big Vito, a favourite of many Bauxites and of this reviewer, must have a smashing Double-A debut if he wants to make his mark as a future big-leaguer. Personally, I think he can do it.
13. Raul Tablado, IF, 22.7
2004 Dunedin
323 AB, .300/.351/.582, 62 R, 28 2B, 0 3B, 21 HR, 76 RBI, 24 BB, 91 K, 0 SB, 0 CS
There’s a little black spot on the sun today…. Everything was coming up roses for Tablado in 2004: he came to spring training in great shape physically and mentally, tore the cover off the ball, got injured, came back and continued to drive pitches into the corners and out of the park. Tablado, who’d never hit higher than .266 in any professional season, batted an even .300 on the year. His doubles and homers totals represented career highs, and slugging .582 in the Florida State League is impressive. Even better, he played a pretty good third base (and some forgettable shortstop -- he’s destined for the hot corner), giving the Jays yet another prospect on the left side of the infield. His BB/K rate was of course a major red flag, but his walks were within shouting distance of 1 in every 10 at-bats, and anyway, Alex Rios never posted great walk rates either. At 22, he looked like a major breakout candidate.
Then, last month, came word that Tablado had been suspended by major-league baseball for an indefinite period. No reason was given then, and no reason has been given since. There has been a lot of speculation since that time on what happened to Tablado -- but there are no facts yet. For a whole host of reasons, primarily those connected with common decency, we’re not going to join in the speculation, and we will respectfully ask that you do the same in this thread. What we hope is that Tablado is back with the Blue Jays organization as soon as possible, and that he continues his ascendance when he returns. But for the suspension, he’d be higher on this list.
14. Robinson Diaz, C, 21.0
2004 Charleston
407 AB, .287/.341/.361, 62 R, 20 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 42 RBI, 27 BB, 31 K, 10 SB, 4 CS
Quick introductory note: I’ve seen his first name spelled Robinzon as well, but for the moment, Robinson seems to be the most commonly used version. Diaz, who got everyone’s attention by hitting .374 as a 20-year-old in limited action at Pulaski last year, held his own in his full-season debut two levels higher. As you can see, the average returned to earth, the power is pretty much latent, and he doesn’t walk a whole lot.
But striking out just 31 times in over 400 at-bats is extraordinary, and suggests terrific bat control; his 10 steals from behind the plate were also remarkable. There’s no word on his defence, but good catching ability usually takes a while to acquire anyway. With Guillermo Quiroz the current favourite to backstop in Toronto for the next several years and Curtis Thigpen coming on strong behind him, Diaz might get lost in the shuffle; but he’s only 21 and has some very intriguing skills.
15. Vince Perkins, RHP, 23.0
2004 Dunedin
1-4, 3.95, 13 G, 9 GS, 54.2 IP, 53 H, 24 BB, 47 K, 2 HR, 19.6% KBF
When I did these rankings in the pre-season, Francisco Rosario posed a problem for me. He could’ve been ranked anywhere from #3 to #13, depending on how taken one was with tools and how optimistic one was about surgical recoveries. I’m now in the same boat with Vince Perkins, who spent much of 2004 on the disabled list and who often struggled when he did appear on a mound. Although he allowed more hits in his second stint at Dunedin (following his callup from Charleston in 2003), his walks decreased markedly and his strikeouts rose, a very promising sign.
Perkins is still on the young side for a pitching prospect, and his high-90s heat and improving off-speed pitches, when they’re on, promise front-of-the-rotation results. This time next year, this ranking could be ridiculously pessimistic; the bottom line is, arms like this are worth all the chances you can give them. Perkins is the only Canadian in the Top 30.
16. Davis Romero, LHP, 21.6
2004 Charleston
5-4, 2.53, 32 G, 14 GS, 103.1 IP, 77 H, 30 BB, 108 K, 6 HR, 25.9% KBF
Romero is one of my personal favourites, a sleeper who broke out in a big way this year. Moving from the bullpen to the rotation late in the season for Charleston, Romero lost some of his strikeout brilliance, but retained his dominance in every other facet of his game. It’s remarkable to think that he posted these numbers as a 21-year-old; the fact that he’s a lefty just makes him that much more intriguing.
If you had to identify a concern here, it would have to be his size. The bias against short pitchers is thankfully passing away, but the fact remains that at 5’10”, 140 lbs, Romero could blow away in a stiff wind. It’s hard for a player that small to generate the velocity needed to retire hitters at the highest levels. The Jays have been cautious with him so far -- maybe too cautious? -- and I really would like to see him start 2005 in Dunedin. A visit to his local weight-gain clinic wouldn’t go astray, either.
17. Ismael Ramirez, RHP, 23.7
2004 Dunedin
15-6, 2.72, 27 GS, 165.1 IP, 151 H, 25 BB, 131 K, 5 HR, 19.5% KBF
The flow of Blue Jays prospects from Venezuela has slowed in the last few years, as the team both cut back its Latin American operations and turned its player development focus to U.S. colleges. There are still some gems in the system, however, including Ismael Ramirez. A six-year veteran of pro ball (he signed as a free agent at 18), Ramirez has slowly rounded into form and, as a 23-year-old, broke out in the second half of 2003.
Ramirez, who relies on command more than raw power, was always stingy with walks and home runs, but his H/IP and K/IP numbers left doubts about his ability to succeed at higher levels. Starting in July, however, Ramirez put those doubts to rest with this remarkable line: 9-1, 12 GS, 82 IP, 57 H, 7 BB, 73 K. That BB/K line is almost Marcumesque, and offers the possibility that Ramirez has suddenly figured it out. His BB/9 and K/9 numbers last year were a middling 2.34 and 5.28, respectively; this year, they were an electrifying 1.36 and 7.13. Ramirez appears to have taken the first step towards elite prospect status, but at 24 next spring, he’ll have to prove he can post the same kind of results against more experienced Double-A hitters.
18. Curtis Thigpen, C, 21.5
2004 Auburn
166 AB, .301/.390/.518, 34 R, 11 2B, 2 3B, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 23 BB, 32 K, 1 SB, 1 CS
Yes, it was only 116 at-bats in short-season ball, but Thigpen looks like the real deal. Probably the best catching prospect in an organization knee-deep in good backstops, Thigpen barely broke stride from the College World Series finals before roughing up NY-Penn pitching. Despite an exhausting schedule, Thigpen showed up ready to play and posted very good power and patience numbers, while holding his own behind the plate. There were few players in the system JP Ricciardi appeared to like more than Thigpen: he had already bestowed on the youngster his favourite moniker of “dirtbag,” which means that Curtis is probably already doomed to carry the nickname “Pigpen” around with him at some point. But Thigpen is hard-working and talented, and that goes a long way.
So now it’s time to address the DUI he incurred in mid-September. The optimist in me says that at least he was arrested for going 30 kph under the speed limit, not over -- you take your silver linings where you can get them, I suppose. I don’t have any more detailed information on the charge, and frankly, I don’t really need it: drunk driving is drunk driving. In the absence of facts, we will not speculate, and as with the Tablado situation, we ask that you join us in that moratorium as well.
The Blue Jays draft players for their character as much as for their skills, and Thigpen evidently showed extremely poor judgment here. It’s a big, big strike one, but I expect the front office will allow him the opportunity to redeem himself. The more serious question is whether the law allows him the chance to get back to his baseball career soon. Like Tablado, he’d be higher on the list if not for his off-field situation. We hope, for a host of reasons, that it gets resolved as well as it possibly can.
T20. Carlo Cota and Ryan Roberts
Cota, 2B/3B, 24.0
2004 Dunedin
463 AB, .294/.356/.449, 81 R, 37 2B, 1 3B, 11 HR, 63 RBI, 45 BB, 101 K, 2 SB, 1 CS
Roberts, 3B, 24.0
2004 Dunedin
205 AB, .239/.350/.356, 29 R, 1 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 25 RBI, 36 BB, 51 K, 0 SB, 3 CS
2004 Charleston
226 AB, .283/.440/.496, 38 R, 9 2B, 0 3B, 13 HR, 39 RBI, 55 BB, 50 K, 0 SB, 0 CS
On the face of it, there’s very little to separate these two players, born exactly one day apart in September 1980. Both are late-round draft picks (18th for Roberts, 33rd for Cota) with experience at second and third base, though neither is considered a defensive whiz at either position. They both had stellar campaigns in the lower minors (Roberts tore up the Sally earlier this year before being promoted, while Cota ripped the NY-Penn League to the tune of a 937 OPS last season). But they haven’t been as overpowering in the FSL (Cota has made the jump better than Roberts, although Roberts’ success had come in full-season ball). Roberts has much better plate discipline, while Cota seems to have better overall extra-base power.
How to choose between them? Well, we can take a clue from the fact that when Roberts was promoted from Charleston, he stayed at second base while Cota was bumped to third. The organization seems to be leaning in favour of Roberts, who apparently projects better as a potential big-leaguer. That may well be the case; there’s only so much that statistics can tell you, and the internal scouting reports on these guys may tell very different stories. But from this perspective, they’re virtually twins, and I’d be hard-pressed to say which of them will do better at higher levels. What I do know is that at 24, they each need to be ready for the challenges of the Eastern League, because they should be debuting there next spring.
21. Miguel Negron, OF, 22.1
2004 Dunedin
372 AB, .269/.341/.411, 46 R, 16 2B, 5 3B, 9 HR, 48 RBI, 38 BB, 81 K, 3 SB, 1 CS
I’m really not sure where to place Negron, to be honest with you. On the one hand, a mid-season power surge proved to be illusory, and he finished with pretty poor slugging numbers. His BB/K rate demonstrates that he still hasn’t picked up the organizational ability to command the strike zone; unlike Alex Rios, he does not have a high batting average to explain and compensate for a lack of walks. He peaked in mid-summer and fell back from there. On the other hand, he only turned 22 in August, the FSL saps power, and he managed to post the same OPS at Dunedin as he did in his brief but breakout season in Charleston in 2003. He’s also a fine defensive centerfielder, and that is a very useful commodity.
It took Negron two campaigns in the Sally League to get his average over .300, and he may need to spend another year in Florida to adjust fully to the higher level. There is still a ton of raw talent here, and there would be no shortage of teams willing to take a flyer on him, but his learning curve has been over-long and gradual. I imagine Toronto will give Negron another opportunity to catch the wave, but personally, I’m skeptical that he’ll be able to put it all together enough to help the organization at the major-league or high-minors level. This time next year, I expect he’ll be either much higher on this list, or gone altogether.
22. Ron Davenport, OF, 22.11
2004 Dunedin
442 AB, .278/.345/.495, 63 R, 40 2B, 4 3B, 16 HR, 92 RBI, 47 BB, 68 K, 0 SB, 1 CS
On a team with such promising hitters as Chiaravalotti, Cota, Negron and Roberts, Davenport arguably might have had the best overall season. Davenport came out of nowhere: a 22nd-round high-school draft pick in 2000, he posted mediocre numbers his previous two seasons in Dunedin. This was his third trip through the Florida State League, which at least partly explains his success this year. As an outfielder, he figures to make a pretty good first baseman someday.
But the fact remains: he broke the franchise record for doubles, he batted a solid .278 and slugged nearly .500, he posted acceptable walk rates, and he didn’t strike out often. Most importantly, he won’t turn 23 until next month; he’s a full year younger than Chiaravalotti or Cota. Davenport will almost certainly receive a promotion to New Hampshire in 2005, and we’ll find out then whether this was a fluke campaign for a three-time repeater, or whether he really has broken out.
23. Tom Mastny, RHP, 23.8
2004 Charleston
10-3, 2.17, 27 GS, 149 IP, 123 H, 41 BB, 141 K, 4 HR, 23.1% KBF
There is nothing wrong with these numbers, and I’d like to rank him higher. In his two pro seasons (Auburn and Charleston), Mastny has averaged one strikeout an inning and has a WHIP only slightly over one during that time. Mastny has anchored the starting staffs of two consecutive playoff teams and has an 18-4 record over that time. So why isn’t he higher on this list?
Partly it’s because Mastny’s stuff is not reported to be overpowering: a selection of good pitches with fine (though not fantastic) control. And partly it’s because he's always been a little too old for his leagues: he turns 24 next February, and 24-year-old pitchers who want to be taken seriously really shouldn’t be pitching in A-Ball, let alone Low A-Ball. That’s out of Mastny’s control, of course: the Blue Jays have been very conservative in their approach to him and have not challenged him the way they challenged his former rotation mates Shaun Marcum and Justin James. They might have a reason for that, but I don’t know what it is.
24. John-Ford Griffin, OF, 24.10
2004 New Hampshire
467 AB, .248/.330/.454, 66 R, 28 2B, 1 3B, 22 HR, 81 RBI, 56 BB, 128 K, 1 SB, 1 CS
John-Ford Griffin hit .403 as a junior at Florida State University, in a tough, competitive college conference. Then he went out the next year and left that mark in the dust, batting an amazing .450 for the Seminoles; his 50/23 BB/K rate gave him a tidy little .542 on-base percentage, to go with his .797 slugging percentage. Today, however, that remarkable college career seems like a distant memory.
On the positive side, Griffin continued to add power in his second stint in Double-A, and he’s walking more than every ten at-bats; his OPS by month (603, 737, 791, 903, 791) showed improvement. After spending most of the year striking out in a third of his at-bats, he managed to get that percentage down to a slightly less appalling 27%. But his .248 average is not just low, it’s actually close to his season high: he spent much of the year mired within shouting distance of the Mendoza Line. Griffin has now spent parts of three seasons in Double-A: his batting average in those three years has gone .328-.279-.248 (in an increasing number of at-bats each year). Griffin appears to be running out of prospect power.
I’ve been a booster of his through his struggles, and the possibility still exists that Griffin could launch himself back to glory next season and make a legitimate run at the first-base job in Toronto. This ranking does not properly reflect his chances of making an impact at Syracuse or even Toronto; it does reflect the fact that his star has dimmed. At 25 this November, it seems increasingly likely that he’s not going to figure largely in the team’s future plans -- not unlike the player who accompanied him via trade to the Toronto system…..
25. Jason Arnold, RHP, 25.5
2004 Syracuse
1-3, 3.65, 7 GS, 37 IP, 40 H, 12 BB, 15 K, 6 HR, 9.2% KBF
2004 New Hampshire
0-1, 3.15, 4 GS, 20 IP, 17 H, 5 BB, 14 K, 4 HR, 17.1% KBF
2004 Dunedin
1-1, 4.35, 3 GS, 10.1 IP, 13 H, 2 BB, 11 K, 1 HR, 24.3% KBF
To put things in perspective, Arnold was ranked 9th on my pre-season prospect list. A lot of people thought I had him ranked too high then, and I imagine some people will think he’s too low on this one; like Griffin, he probably is. Arnold started off very poorly at Syracuse this year, posting BB/K and K/IP rates so awful that something had to be wrong. Something was -- an unspecified shoulder ailment -- and it kept him out of action until two late-season rehab assignments. His stint in Dunedin was strong, as was expected, but he was less overpowering at New Hampshire, and I’m not very optimistic about his results next year in Syracuse. Look at it this way: Arnold will be 26 next May. He is currently crossing the event horizon between prospect and journeyman.
JP Ricciardi dealt away a prized prospect in Felipe Lopez (well, prized by other organizations, anyway) to bring Griffin and Arnold, the Yankees’ first- and second-round 2001 draft picks, to Toronto. JP is just the latest smart baseball guy to see more in these two players than they have managed to produce on the playing field. For one of these guys to prove a flop would be disappointing; for both to flame out before ever reaching the majors would be something of a kick to the gut. I’d estimate that both of these players have one more year left to make that most difficult of all jumps and succeed against top-rank competition; after that, the organization might simply run out of patience and roster spots.
26. Chi-hung Cheng, LHP, 19.3
2004 Auburn
0-0, 4.50, 0 GS, 2 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HR, 42.9% KBF
2004 Pulaski
3-1, 2.82, 14 GS, 60.2 IP, 47 H, 35 BB, 74 K, 4 HR, 28.2% KBF
The youngest player on this list and one of the youngest in the entire organization, Cheng spent his last year of adolesence adjusting to the culture change between Taipei and the Appalachians. He also spent it baffling the overmatched young hitters of Rookie League ball, who had never seen anything like Cheng’s paralyzing curve. As those walks totals demonstrate, however, the hitters eventually figured out that Cheng didn’t always know where his pitches were going either.
Cheng’s fastball still only tops out in the mid-to-high-80s, and he’s still growing up in every respect; if he ever gets that fastball into the 90s with movement, and if he can command that breaking pitch, he instantly becomes an intriguing relief candidate. Cheng is firmly on the long-term plan; don’t expect to see him even in the high minors until at least 2007. But he’s worth watching.
27. Bubbie Buzachero, RHP, 23.3
2004 Dunedin
2-2, 25 Sv, 2.55, 51 G, 0 GS, 60 IP, 53 H, 20 BB, 59 K, 3 HR, 23.3% KBF
Consider this statistical selection. Here are Buzachero’s full-season numbers in Auburn in 2003:35 IP, 25 H, 7 BB, 47 K
Here are Bubbie’s numbers after an equal 35 innings at Dunedin in 2004:35 IP, 29 H, 7 BB, 41 K
And here are his numbers in the final 25 innings at Dunedin in 2004:25 IP, 24 H, 13 BB, 18 K
I’d been wondering most of this season why Buzachero wasn’t moving up through the system faster than he had been. Well, the Blue Jays developmental staff know many thing that your humble correspondent does not, and maybe they knew that Buzachero needed to stretch himself out beyond 35 innings.
It seems strange to think that a pitcher could get winded after just 105 outs, but Buzachero’s mediocre second half begs an explanation, and the similarities between his first 35 innings the last two seasons was odd enough for me to bring it up here. In either event, I’d like to see what Buzachero can do at Double-A next year, and in more innings.
28. Adam Lind, 1B, 21.2
2004 Auburn
266 AB, .312/.371/.477, 43 R, 23 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 50 RBI, 24 BB, 36 K, 1 SB, 0 CS
After Purcey and Thigpen, it is really difficult to decide which other players from the amazing Auburn squad should make the list. After much deliberation, I went with Adam (“Ryan”) Lind, the supplemental 3rd-rounder (thank you again, Anaheim Angels) this past June from South Alabama. There were other attractive possibilities: Brian Hall, the slugging second baseman; Ryan Klosterman, the speedy shortstop with extra-base pop; or powerful first baseman Chip Cannon.
But Lind gets the nod for a number of reasons: he led the club in batting average and was second (to Eric Nielsen) in OBP, but still had enough power to crank 7 homers and lead the team in doubles. More significantly, Lind showed excellent bat control, striking out much less often than his teammates. Batters’ strikeout rates in the NY-Penn League tend to get magnified as the players reach higher levels; Hall, for instance, is posting numbers strikingly similar to what Carlo Cota put up at Auburn last year. Lind, who had a lethal bat in college, has made the adjustment to wooden bats and professional pitching better than any of his teammates so far. If I had to nominate an early 2005 organizational sleeper, he’s the one.
29. Yuber Rodriquez, OF, 20.10
2004 Pulaski
245 AB, .306/.394/.506, 49 R, 13 2B, 6 3B, 8 HR, 50 RBI, 28 BB, 70 K, 9 SB, 3 CS
There’s only room on this list for one Pulaski position player, since it’s difficult to rank a prospect very high when he’s playing against Rookie-ball competition. Indeed, as a franchise, Pulaski's chief virtue is to allow very young players, especially those from the Dominican or Venezuelan leagues, to break into the North American game slowly. One of the chief beneficiaries of this approach is Rodriquez, who forced his way onto this list with a terrific season in the Appalachian League.
Rodriquez demonstrated extra-base power, speed on the basepaths, a fine bat, and just enough plate discipline to make himself interesting. More importantly, he’s a marvellous defensive centerfielder, and that skill more than any other is what could catapult him up the organizational chart. Rodriquez is very young, and may be best suited for another short-season stint, this time at Auburn. If he does well there, he could become a very interesting commodity. Like Lind, he figures to be much higher on this list next year.
30. Jordan De Jong, RHP, 25.5
2004 New Hampshire
6-2, 14 Sv, 2.86, 57 G, 0 GS, 69.1 IP, 69 H, 30 BB, 57 K, 2 HR, 18.6% KBF
De Jong should be very pleased with his 2004 campaign: he inherited the closer role from the promoted Adam Peterson in mid-season and thrived on it, finishing with 14 saves for a championship ballclub. Moving into the closer position might have made him a better pitcher -- his ERA by month was 3.24, 4.85, 2.12, 2.70 and 1.88. After struggling for about a full season at Double-A, De Jong recovered to post numbers very similar to his solid 2003 Dunedin campaign. So with the Blue Jays needing relief help like a baby needs a diaper, why isn’t De Jong higher on the list?
Principally, it’s because he’s still allowing too many baserunners. Allowing one hit per inning is survivable, but not when you’re walking a batter every two frames as well. His 1.43 WHIP indicates that he was dodging bullets more often than he fired them. DeJong has an assortment of fine pitches, but nothing overpowering. That would be fine, if he could command them all and rule the strike zone with an iron fist; right now, however, that’s not the case. There’s nothing wrong with what he’s doing, by the way: as I’ve reiterated in my monthly farm reports, every organization needs solid players to support the farm teams and help them win games. But at 26 next April, I don’t think De Jong is likely to help out in the majors.
Bonus: High Fives
Five Who Are Rising:
1. Zach Jackson, LHP, 21.4
2004 Auburn
0-0, 5.40, 4 GS, 15 IP, 20 H, 6 BB, 11 K, 1 HR, 15.5% KBF
I’d like to find a place on the Top 30 for him, but unlike fellow 2004 first-rounder David Purcey, Jackson struggled in his pro debut. That doesn’t mean a thing long-term, though, and you should look for him to place strongly on next season’s rankings.
2. Ryan Klosterman, SS, 22.4
2004 Auburn
269 AB, .275/.343/.409, 50 R, 13 2B, 4 3B, 5 HR, 32 RBI, 22 BB, 55 K, 16 SB, 2 CS
Yet another shortstop prospect? On draft day, JP Ricciardi projected Klosterman as a Rich Aurilia type, and we’ll take that as a compliment. He’s doing everything quite well so far.
3. Brian Hall, 2B, 22.8
2004 Auburn
211 AB, .294/.367/.512, 38 R, 14 2B, 1 3B, 10 HR, 39 RBI, 24 BB, 49 K, 3 SB, 3 CS
The other half of Auburn’s double-play combination, Hall showed very surprising power in his brief stint in the NY-Penn league. I said earlier that his numbers mirror those of Carlo Cota a year ago; that’s not the worst thing in the world.
4. Brian Reed, RHP, 23.7
2004 Dunedin
2-1, 4 Sv, 3.16, 24 G, 0 GS, 31.1 IP, 38 H, 8 BB, 31 K, 4 HR, 22.3% KBF
2004 Charleston
1-0, 10 Sv, 0.35, 25 G, 0 GS, 26 IP, 17 H, 5 BB, 28 K, 0 HR, 28.0% KBF
Quietly moving up through the organization, Reed hasn’t faltered yet, though he gave up too many hits at Dunedin to crack the Top 30. I’d like to see what he could do as a full-time closer for a higher-level club.
5. Christian Snavely, OF, 22.5
2004 Charleston
331 AB, .254/.362/.459, 50 R, 22 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 59 RBI, 53 BB, 115 K, 6 SB, 2 CS
He still strikes out way too often, but now he’s adding the power to justify it, and his walk rates are still excellent. Still young, and with lots of tools, he has one year left to make a real move.
Five Who Held Steady
1. Dominic Rich, IF, 25.1
2004 New Hampshire
513 AB, .277/.351/.394, 79 R, 30 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 71 RBI, 53 BB, 72 K, 3 SB, 2 CS
Author of the first base hit in the history of the Eastern League Champion New Hampshire Fisher Cats, Rich appears to have settled into the role of solid minor-league player. Farm clubs win championships because of guys like this.
2. Clint Johnston, 1B, 27.3
2004 Charleston
468 AB, .263/.372/.436, 87 R, 36 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 79 RBI, 83 BB, 127 K, 1 SB, 0 CS
We have to send greetings to Johnston, who paced the offence of the division-winning Alley-Cats. Lately converted from the mound, Johnston might still have a crack at Calvin Pickering’s career path. But he sure is valuable to this organization in the interim.
3. Felix Romero, RHP, 24.3
2004 Dunedin
0-0, 1 Sv, 1.88, 9 G, 0 GS, 14.1 IP, 11 H, 2 BB, 20 K, 0 HR, 36.2% KBF
2004 Charleston
9-4, 3 Sv, 2.96, 42 G, 0 GS, 73 IP, 62 H, 20 BB, 102 K, 4 HR, 33.9% KBF
He just missed the Top 30, and his age was the primary reason. It might well be that his raw stuff isn’t enough to defeat the most experienced hitters, but Romero has done everything asked of him so far. I’ll bet he could help next year’s Fisher Cats.
4. Tyrell Godwin, RF, 25.2
2004 New Hampshire
521 AB, .253/.326/.355, 85 R, 21 2B, 7 3B, 6 HR, 40 RBI, 52 BB, 110 K, 42 SB, 12 CS
Another key member of the F-Cats, Godwin did a lot of things right this season after a very slow start. But he still figures to project best as a 25th man on a major-league roster. His speed will get him noticed elsewhere.
5. Tracy Thorpe, RHP, 23.9
2004 Dunedin
3-2, 3.64, 39 G, 0 GS, 59.1 IP, 39 H, 30 BB, 53 K, 5 HR, 21.5% KBF
We haven’t forgotten about the big man. Thorpe’s recovery from surgery appears to have gone well, and he’s just about back to where he was before the injury. If he regains his command within the strike zone, the Jays could be on to something here.
Extra points: a special shout-out to organizational home run champ (23) and Olympic silver medallist Glenn Williams of Syracuse.
Five Who Are Falling
1. Jayce Tingler, OF, 23.10
2004 Dunedin
447 AB, .251/.373/.300, 77 R, 15 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 36 RBI, 74 BB, 25 K, 3 SB, 5 CS
It’s a little unfair to judge the Walking Man so harshly, since he made a two-level jump to Dunedin and posted staggering walk rates. But his batting average fell precipitiously, he has shown no power at all, and it’s only going to get tougher at AA.
2. Kurt Isenberg, LHP, 22.8
2004 Dunedin
2-5, 5.61, 14 GS, 61 IP, 73 H, 20 BB, 40 K, 6 HR, 14.5% KBF
2004 Charleston
3-4, 3.88, 10 GS, 51 IP, 48 H, 15 BB, 34 K, 5 HR, 15.7% KBF
So masterful at Auburn last year, Isenberg also turned out to be unable to handle the two-level jump to Dunedin. He was demoted to Charleston, and then got hurt. He showed flashes of his old self upon returning, but not enough of them.
3. Justin James, RHP, 23.0
2004 Dunedin
3-6, 5.40, 11 GS, 50 IP, 59 H, 19 BB, 41 K, 2 HR, 18.0% KBF
2004 Charleston
5-4, 3.00, 14 GS, 78 IP, 67 H, 24 BB, 83 K, 2 HR, 25.5% KBF
He matched Shaun Marcum almost pitch-for-pitch on the Charleston staff, and made the same trip up to the FSL. But James’ control deserted him there, and the batters caught up to him in a hurry. He can and will improve on a poor Dunedin debut.
4. Chad Pleiness, RHP, 24.7
2004 Dunedin
4-3, 4.40, 36 G, 4 GS, 77.2 IP, 82 H, 33 BB, 46 K, 8 HR, 13.3% KBF
As my old math teacher used to say, worse instead of better. His second go-round the Florida State League proved to be even less successful than the first for Pleiness, who has yet to show the strike-zone dominance befitting his frame.
5. Aquilino Lopez, RHP, 29.5
2004 Syracuse
1-6, 5 Sv, 7.17, 32 G, 0 GS, 42.2 IP, 58 H, 10 BB, 32 K, 8 HR, 16.4% KBF
Goodbye, farewell and amen. The Rule 5 Draft giveth, and the Rule 5 Draft taketh away. By the way, Jason Dubois hit .316/.389/.630 for the Cubs’ AAA team this year, with 31 HRs in 386 AB. Hindsight is a perfect 20/20, isn’t it?
By almost any measure, this was a remarkably successful season for the Blue Jays minor-league organization. Four division flags and one league championship is an amazing accomplishment for a farm system that was mired in mediocrity and drifting towards worse just three years ago. If you remove Syracuse from the mix -- a team ruined by injuries, emergency call-ups and unexpectedly poor performances from veteran acquisitions -- you have a system whose teams finished well over .500 at all five levels. Kudos are due to Dick Scott, Jon Lalonde and everyone else responsible for the excellent 2004 campaign.
You should expect a fair degree of movement on this list before next April. Some of these prospects will almost certainly disappear in trades – the Jays have clear needs at the major-league level and, for the first time in a long time, have the wherewithal to help acquire it. Prospects also get hurt, especially those who pitch for a living, so it’s a good thing the Jays have a surfeit of them. There’s also minor-league free agency and the Rule 5 Draft to consider. The Jays have a lot of players of interest and only 40 spots with which to protect them; some of these guys will be snatched up by other teams. But that’s the price of a healthy farm system, something that the Blue Jays unquestionably now possess.
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