We're Better Off Without Him

Monday, December 20 2004 @ 05:44 AM EST

As you may have read, the Jays were in the hunt for pitcher Matt Clement until the last minute. (Or maybe the fourth-last minute. Or maybe 11:07 or something.) The question: how much would Clement have helped the team had he been signed?

My claim is that signing Clement, or any middle-rank starting pitcher, is a bad idea for the Jays. Why? Because almost all established pitchers acquired by the Jays get worse in a Toronto uniform. And this has nothing to do with J.P. Ricciardi, Rogers Communications, the current Jays coaching staff, or anything like that, as this has been happening for a generation now.

The following table lists all the significant pitchers acquired by the Blue Jays since 1983. “ERA-B” (B is for “before”, natch) is the pitcher's ERA the year before the Jays got him; if he was acquired in mid-season, it's the pitcher's ERA at the time of the trade. “ERA-A” (A is for... you guessed it) is the pitcher's ERA when the Jays acquired him.

Player	ERA-B	ERA-A	Diff	Notes
Terry Adams	2.65	3.98	+1.33	2.65 was likely a fluke
Doyle Alexander	6.35	3.93	-2.42	grudge against George
Miguel Batista	3.54	4.80	+1.26	Note: the plate is that-a-way
John Candelaria	3.39	5.48	+2.09
Tom Candiotti	2.24	2.98	+0.74	8.22 ERA in postseason
Bill Caudill	2.71	2.99	+0.28	lost fastball due to illness
Roger Clemens	3.63	2.05	-1.58	grudge against Bosox
David Cone	2.88	2.55	-0.33	K/W ratio significantly worse
Ken Dayley	3.56	6.23	+2.67	vertigo
Mike Flanagan	4.94	2.37	-2.57
Joey Hamilton	4.27	6.52	+2.25	no GM job for Stew, thanks to Joey
Dennis Lamp	3.71	4.55	+0.84	bounced back the next year
Gary Lavelle	2.76	3.10	+0.34	walked more in Tor; runners likely stranded by Henke
Kerry Ligtenberg	3.34	6.38	+3.04	seeing this raises blood pressure; everybody calm down
Ted Lilly	4.34	4.06	-0.28	yay, Ted!
Randy Moffitt	3.02	3.77	+0.75	crashed in second half
Jack Morris	3.43	4.04	+0.61	144 pitches on opening day
Randy Myers	1.51	4.46	+2.95	ick
Robert Person	4.52	5.61	+1.09
Paul Quantrill	4.67	5.43	+0.76	got better when moved to bullpen
Justin Speier	4.05	3.91	-0.14	coming from Colorado; hurt first half in Tor
Dave Stewart	3.66	4.44	+0.78	K/IP off
Tanyon Sturtze	5.18	5.94	+0.76	mega-ick
Jeff Tam	5.13	5.64	+0.51	super-mega-ick

As you can see, most of the pitchers got worse when they came to Toronto (though some eventually bounced back). The exceptions are: the one-time Cy Young winners (Clemens, Cone, Flanagan); a couple of useful J.P. acquisitions (Lilly, Speier); and Doyle Alexander, who never fits easily into any classification whatsoever, since he was apparently an ornery cuss.

So what can we conclude from this? Choose any or all of the following:

- The sample sizes may be small.
- I may have conveniently forgotten some pitchers who improved in a Jays uniform.
- Some of these guys were coming off fluke years.
- Some pitchers just get old or worse regardless of whether they change uniforms.

But you can also conclude that arriving in Toronto is, and always has been, a somewhat discombobulating experience for an established pitcher. The turf is bouncy, the ball flies out of the park more easily in springtime, the currency is a funny colour, and everything is just a little bit disconcerting. This is why I think that the Jays have to grow their own pitching: for the kids coming up from the farm, Toronto is the normal major league experience. Think of all the homegrown pitchers, or pitchers acquired as minor leaguers, who have flourished here: Stieb, Key, Clancy, Ward, Henke, Halladay, Guzman, Timlin, Hentgen. The list of imported talent isn't nearly as impressive as this list.

So what would Matt Clement have achieved in a Jays uniform? Well, he had ERA's of 4.11 and 3.68 in a Cubs uniform, so he would have probably compiled an ERA of 4.75 or so in a Jays uniform. Is this worth $9 million a year? Naah. The Jays are better off without him.

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