John Sickels' Top 20 Jay prospects

Wednesday, March 09 2005 @ 03:15 PM EST

Contributed by: Mike Green

John Sickels' top 20 Jay prospects are up. For comparison, here is Jordan's top 30 from September.

Brandon League and David Purcey are the top rated prospects on John Sickels' list. Aaron Hill and Josh Banks rank 1, 2 on Jordan's.

Despite the different names at the top, the lists are very close. Tools/ceiling vs. performance emphasis probably accounts for these modest differences.

One area of weakness in the Sickels' ratings (you'll have to buy his prospect book for the rationales behind many of them) is his reliance on H/IP ratios in small samples for pitchers. For instance, he comments that Shaun Marcum's H/IP ratio of 74/69 in Dunedin was below average, despite the fact his career H/IP ratio, as well as his K/IP ratio is excellent. Hits allowed are significantly affected by defence and context; for this reason, small sample H/IP is not a reliable indicator of future pitching success. Similar comments were made in Baseball America about David Bush's innings in Syracuse last year.

That concern aside, Sickels' prospect book is well worth purchasing, and his top 20 list merits a look-see. He continues to marry performance and tools analysis in a most agreeable way.

Sickels was a strong supporter of Gabe Gross. He downgrades Gross from a B- to a C+ on the list, and jokes that now that he has lost faith, Gross will probably get hot for the first half of the season. He's got a leg up on that one!

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