Hall Watch 2004-The outfielders-Jim Edmonds

Tuesday, March 15 2005 @ 08:00 AM EST

Contributed by: Mike Green

For those of us who followed Jim Edmonds' early career, seeing his name here as a possible Hall of Famer is a bit of a shock. But it's no joke. He's arrived in his mid-30s as a powerful centerfielder, with a great glove and a discerning eye. 2004 was his best year yet as he put up a very pretty .301/.418/.643 line in 612 plate appearances. He was a key cog in the Cardinals National League champions.

Edmonds was drafted in the 7th round by the Angels as an 18 year old. He spent 4 years from 1988-1991 in A ball; in his last 2 years in Palm Springs, he played 151 games, hit .293 with 7 triples, 5 homers, 67 walks and 132 strikeouts. In 1992 and 1993 at double A and triple A, he established himself as a .300 hitter, with medium range power and somewhat better than average plate discipline. He had a cup of coffee with the Angels at the end of 1993. Going into the 1994 season, the Angels had a 25 year old Chad Curtis in centerfield, a 25 year old Tim Salmon in right, and the left-field job was up for grabs. Candidates among several others included 22 year old Garrett Anderson, 31 year old Bo Jackson and 24 year old Jim Edmonds. The job was split between Jackson and Edmonds, who hit .273/.343/.377 before the strike ended the season.

The Angels decided that Edmonds was a better player than Curtis, who they shipped off to the Yankees before baseball resumed in 1995. Edmonds proved them right by hitting .290/.352/.536 in 1995. He struck out 130 times. Edmonds performed well in Anaheim, posting similar lines to 1995 and reducing his strikeouts. In spring training 2000, the Angels shipped Edmonds to the Cardinals for Adam Kennedy and Kent Bottenfield. The Cardinals must have told Edmonds to relax about his strikeouts. Since his arrival in St. Loo, he has become a minor Three True Outcomes hero, walking more, striking out more and hitting more homers than he did in Anaheim. It's all worked out well, as he has continued to be a .300 hitter in his early 30s.

Edmonds is 34 and now has had 5 great seasons, 4 very good ones, and 1 mediocre half-season due to injury. He's a long-time Gold Glove winning centerfielder. Most defensive metrics have placed him somewhat behind Andruw Jones, Darin Erstad and Mike Cameron over his career, but that is a very, very high standard.

While he struggled mightily in the World Series last year, he has hit .290/.353/.580 in 138 post-season at-bats. A World Series ring or two would really help his resume.

I will combine the chart for Edmonds and Bernie Williams, who is a year older, (using Williams' age 34 line):

Player    G      AB     H     HR    W     BA     OBP    SLUG    OPS+     
Edmonds   1445   5090   1496  302   734   .294   .384   .544    138      
Bernie    1656   6403   1950  241   898   .305   .390   .492    131
Lynn      1537   5589   1632  241   716   .292   .371   .496    135
Doby      1494   5235   1489  257   861   .284   .388   .494    138
Smith     1748   6338   1814  280   796   .286   .365   .490    137

The key difference between Edmonds and Williams, and the 3 historical stars is their career paths. By 34, Doby and Smith were part-time outfielders, and Lynn was a part-time DH. It was pretty clear that the downhill slide had begun, and in each case, it was rapid. Edmonds is coming off the best three seasons of his career, and while it is unlikely that he'll be able to continue at this pace, neither is it likely that he will become a part-time player in the next year or two.

Should Edmonds go to the Hall of Fame? Will he? Doby is in the Hall of Fame. Smith isn't but should be. Lynn isn't and should be just on the outside. Edmonds has been as good a hitter as all three, and a better fielder. Assuming a normal end-of-career pattern, which will see him with an average length career overall, he should go in. I have no idea whether he will go in. Box readers, what do you think?

Next up: Bernie Williams

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