Hall Watch 2004-The Outfielders-Bernie Williams

Friday, March 18 2005 @ 08:00 AM EST

Contributed by: Mike Green

Fantasy baseball, like our BBFL, has its moments. One of mine was in 1991. My arch-rival Howard lost an outfielder, who was not producing, to the DL at just the right time, and snapped up Phil Plantier. "Howard got the Second Coming of JC", I complained to my secretary the next morning. A couple of weeks later, I lost a similar non-producing outfielder to the DL. The next morning, I arrived with a wide grin on my face. "Wazzup?" asked my secretary. "Howard might have got the Second Coming of JC, but I got Bernie Williams", came the reply. "Who's he?". "The Third Coming".

Phil Plantier's Hall of Fame train was derailed in about 1995, but Bernie, well, he was just getting rolling.

Bernie Williams was signed at age 17 out of Puerto Rico by the Yankees. Bernie made stops in the Gulf Coast League, Prince William, Fort Lauderdale, Oneonta, Albany during a 5 year minor league career. He hit for a fair average, with good plate discipline and a little power. In 1990, at age 21, he went .281/.409/.414 with 39 stolen bases for double A Albany. He was a fine leadoff hitter/centerfielder in the making. In 1991 and 1992, he spent half of each year in the majors and half in triple A Columbus. During the 1991-94 period, he hit .275 with good plate discipline and medium range power. He took a step forward in all spheres in 1995 at age 26, with a fine .307/.392/.487 line, and then reached his peak during the Yankees' great run from 1996-2000, and continuing on through 2002.

Bernie's last 2 seasons have been uninspired, with 2004's .262/.360/.435 seeming to be the new normal for Bernie. He won Gold Gloves from 1997 to 2000, but he was in truth not one of the top 3 defensive centerfielders during his prime. As he has aged, his range has fallen off sharply. He has been a first rate post-season performer, posting a fine .280/.378/.490 line in almost a full season's work.

Here's Bernie's chart, through age 35 (2003). His performance last year changes little about the argument:

Player    G      AB     H     HR    W     BA     OBP    SLUG    OPS+     
Edmonds   1445   5090   1496  302   734   .294   .384   .544    138      
Bernie    1656   6403   1950  241   898   .305   .390   .492    131
Lynn      1537   5589   1632  241   716   .292   .371   .496    135
Doby      1494   5235   1489  257   861   .284   .388   .494    138
Smith     1748   6338   1814  280   796   .286   .365   .490    137

Should Bernie Williams go into the Hall of Fame? Will he? Yes, he should (narrowly). Among the centerfielders, he fits neatly in the Doby/Smith/Lynn group. His distinguishing feature is his contributions to a winning ballclub, including his post-season performance. He was a key member of a great Yankee team, at least as valuable as Jeter, in my opinion, and perhaps more so. If things break right, Jeter, Williams and Rivera will go into the Hall of Fame together. Earle Combs is in the Hall of Fame, as a less than key contributor to the '27 Yankees. Williams' case is much more compelling, and I think that he will go.

This completes the Hall Watch 2004 series. I did not get to the pitchers, but it was that kind of year, anyways. We will catch up to them next year.

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