Orioles 4 - Jays 1

Sunday, April 24 2005 @ 07:40 AM EDT

Contributed by: Pepper Moffatt

The X-rays were penetrating
Through the latex breeze
Synthetic fibre see-thru leaves
Fell from the rayon trees

Those of us who were critical of the Jays during the off-season thought that the Jays would have a lot of games like this. The Jays collected 9 hits but only 2 of them were for extra bases. In fact, the Jays grounded into as many double plays as they collected extra base hits. But one game, good or bad, is not indicative of the quality of a team. To do that, we need to dig deeper.

The Jays as a team have collected 657 at-bats this season, around the number an everyday player at the top of a line-up would collect in a season. If our team was an individual player (we'll call him Jabs Yule), the back of his baseball card would look as follows: 

JABS YULE

AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO   BA    OBP   SLG  SB  CS  GDP   
---+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+
657   94  181  26  7  18   91  51  119  .275  .334  .419   3   4  17
If we ignore the 7 triples, that looks like the profile of a slow, probably right-handed, hitter with some power who manages to put up a decent batting average while still striking out twice as often as he walks. If you divided the walks and strikeouts by 3, this would be a pretty good comp for Randall Simon circa 2003.

But how does this compare to other teams? Here's how the Jays stack up against the other 29 teams in major league baseball: 

   R:   94 ( 6th - T)
   H:  181 ( 4th)
  2B:   26 (25th - T)
  3B:    7 ( 3rd)
  HR:   18 (10th - T)
 RBI:   91 ( 5th)
  SO:  119 ( 6th)
  BB:   51 (19th)
  BA: .275 ( 8th)
 OBP: .334 (14th - T)
 SLG: .419 (13th - T)
  SB:    3 (27th - T)
  CS:    4 (11th - T)
 GDP:   17 ( 4th - T)
 G/F: 1.25 (16th)
RC27: 4.87 (12th)
There's quite a few things we can take from this.

Runs vs. RC/27

One of the things the Jays have done well this year is score runs. Despite yesterday's game they're 6th overall in major league baseball in runs. Before yesterday's game they were third.

Their RC/27 figure, though, only ranks 12th overall. This is largely due to the fact that the Jays have played an above average number of games. But the Jays have been fairly efficient in converting baserunners into runs. The RC27 formula predicts the Jays should score 4.87 runs a game based on their hits, walks, and baserunning. The Jays have scored 4.95 runs a game.

This likely comes as a surprise to those of us (myself included) that the Jays had not done a good job in cashing in baserunners. But we have to remember that baseball is a game of failure. With runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs, the guy at the plate is going to fail about 70% of the time. That's just how the game is.

Does any fan think their team's offense is clutch? If they do, it's very rare. Because failure is so much more common than success in these situations, I think fans of almost every team thinks their team doesn't convert their runners into runs frequently enough. But by definition, half of the teams in baseball must do it better than the median. The Jays are one of those teams.

Homework Assignment: Name the 15 General Managers in baseball who are above the median. This is surprisingly hard once you get past 10 or so, because a lot of us armchair types think we could do a better job. But by definition, half of the GMs in baseball must be above the median.

Doubles vs. Homers

Besides being clutch, the Jays have been really good and getting the extra 20 feet needed to turn their doubles into home runs. Does anybody really think the Jays will be 25th overall in doubles and 10th overall in homeruns at the end of the season? I thought it would be the other way around. Hopefully the Jays can continue to hit longballs at the same pace while increasing their doubles. If they start to swap homers for doubles, it could be a long season in Toronto.

Walks and Strikeouts

The Jays have the 19th most walks in the majors, but the 6th most strikeouts. The low level of walks doesn't surprise me, but with Delgado and Phelps gone, I'm surprised the Jays are still striking out as much as they are. Although he's only hitting .233, you can't pin this one on Vernon Wells, as he's only struck out 9 times this year. The main culprits are Koskie (20), Hinske (17), and Rios (13). Hinske is striking out three times more than he walks; in previous seasons this ration was right around two-to-one. Most alarming is Rios, who has struck out 13 times compared with only 2 walks.

Stolen Bases

What happened to all this talk of little ball that we heard during the off-season? The Jays haven't been following up on it. I wonder if Richard Griffin has noticed. Wells isn't doing well in his quest for 30 swipes, he's 0 for 1 in that category. Hinske is 2 for 2, while Rios is 1 for 3.

Double Plays

The Jays have already grounded into 17 double plays this year, the 4th highest total in the major leagues. This isn't just a function of them having a lot of baserunners as they're 14th overall in baseball in that category. I can't also pin this one on Shea Hillenbrand, as he only accounts for 2 of the 17 DPs. Grounding into double plays has been a team effort and one that was not unexpected.

Groundball - Flyball Ratio

Despite the fears that the Jays are hitting everything on the ground, they are in the middle of the pack when it comes to hitting balls in the air.

Your Thoughts?

I hope this proves useful as fodder for discussion. Anything in there surprise you?

The Roundup

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